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Metro Mining Ltd
ASX:MMI

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Metro Mining Ltd
ASX:MMI
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Price: 0.041 AUD Market Closed
Updated: May 8, 2024

Earnings Call Transcript

Earnings Call Transcript
2023-Q2

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P
Peter Taylor
executive

[Audio Gap] [indiscernible] fresh back from his trip to China, who is going to give us an update and -- on the quarterly report. [indiscernible] great things in it and Metro outlook going forward.

I am going to hand it over to Simon and we'll have some questions at the end question.

[indiscernible], Simon.

S
Simon Wensley
executive

Thanks, Peter and hello to everybody, wherever you're. Welcome. Last week, we put out the Q2 report for Metro. I think importantly, from my point of view and my team's point of view is that we're finally seeing the result of all of the time and effort and investment that we've made over the last 12 to 18 months from -- all the way from the sales side, the investment in plant and equipment and as well as the culture and effort and everyone is excited [indiscernible] through to the results and the bottom line. So especially pleasing quarter results.

I think the highlight is that we -- whilst effectively still running at the 4 million tonne per annum rate we generated higher than expectation EBITDA for the site, which was [indiscernible]. That was all pretty much generated in the second 2 months of the quarter in May, June. So the run rate [indiscernible] million. So it's -- we're beginning to see some of those economies of sales as we start to produce slightly above the 4 million tonne rate. The, obviously the comparisons with last year, look, look fantastic but we're really seeing -- what we're targeting here is the -- look to the [indiscernible] order and book order where we're stepping up, again towards this [ 5 million to 6 million ] run rate.

So [indiscernible] sales and we're on track to order the 4.5 million to 5 million tonne offtake for this year and that will again be -- there was a significantly improved returns for the company. Also importantly, during the last quarter we did provide a financial investment decision on ordering remaining elements of the expansion to the 7 million tonnes. So quickly, there were 2 very important investments, one in offshore floating terminal, much larger asset than a single floating crane. So that was put in place with the funds that we raised in the first quarter, a bit of a [indiscernible] aspect of that was the screening plant. So both of those are now entrained and on target to be in place by -- depending on the schedule by the end of this year and going into next year's '24, the 2024 season.

I do want to touch on a couple of items today in the quarterly. I've had quite a few questions on the marketplace and what's going on. The bauxite market is permed from a demand perspective. We're seeing record traded bauxite market again in 2023 after a record in 2022. So currently running at around that 140 to 145 million tonnes per annum [indiscernible] into China. That is the critical market obviously, combining the conditions in the market out like that in the trading space in [indiscernible] has, all down, you can see there in bottom [indiscernible] likely where we're dropping to 0 as we go towards the middle of the year. So that again is increasing some competitive tension in the price for bauxite as we move through the year. And you can see that still go through the pricing, you can see the [indiscernible] price sitting up there towards the [ AUD 70 ] mark and the Australian pricing is now sort of now steadily improving up to USD 50 per tonne [indiscernible] market in China. So Peter referenced my recent trip for 2 weeks in China. There's a lot of activity in this bauxite and aluminum pace. Obviously, everybody in China understands aluminum is a critical metal in underpinning the move towards the lower carbon economy. And so there's a lot of investment going on in that space The EVs -- EV [indiscernible] is the best producer of EVs in the world and the batteries to support that. So I think it's absolutely critical -- critically important [indiscernible] and you can see that going through into the investments that are being made there.

So indeed, we've got a lot of interest, so a lot of people are looking to see how much more volume we can produce. And that was one of the factors why we wanted to fast track the expansion and make those investments based on that additional debt that we took down in the first and second quarter. So it's a very positive environment. I'm just -- we just need to see the aluminum price start to rise again and I think that creates a lot more space for the bauxite price to rise.

The operating numbers are very solid. We're seeing sort of obviously increased revenues per tonne flowing through at the top, reflecting that price environment. That will evolve, continue to evolve slowly as we move through the quarters and our contract structures evolve. And you can see the economies of scale coming into the cost side as well. So you're getting both top line increases and the cost structure improving at the same time to give us a good solid margin around [ AUD 9 ] per tonne for the quarter. That's been driven at the site level by a lot more consistency. So trying to remove variability from equipment availability and to utilize that with increased throughput.

So you can see at the screens, the graph I put in the Q2 report there shows how much better availability we've been getting out of our screens versus the same time last year. And you can see then that flowing through to output, both from a mining perspective and the shipping perspective. So given the removal of variability, we're seeing much more consistent output and we can see that's been steadily growing through from April when we start -- restarted through to May and June, where we've seen very, very positive outcomes, roughly between that sort of 15,000 to 18,000 tonnes per day, which is above -- significantly above where we had budgeted. So I think that's basically where we're at, at the moment. The cash flow is shown at the back of the Q2 forecast. So I'm happy to take any questions about where we're at with the project.

P
Peter Taylor
executive

Thanks, Simon. I think most shareholders, were pretty happy with the last 6 months. There's been a lot of achievements and some milestones covered. What do you see the elements of the mining and shipping operations that contributed to your ability to achieve this record productivity? In particular, what sort of challenges have you found and been able to meet which are worth talking about?

S
Simon Wensley
executive

I think the biggest single change, Peter, is the focus on maintenance and the ability to get those availabilities in all parts of our flow sheet, right away from our mining equipment and our trucks and trailers. There's been a lot of focus on the mobile equipment with additional new trucks coming in on top of that. The screens in the -- on the bauxite loading facility have also had a significant amount of money put into them from a maintenance perspective in advance of this year, through the wet season and we're seeing how that's performing.

And indeed, we're seeing a more consistent performance from our transshipping contractors as well, seeing excellent output from the single floating crane. So all the way through the flow sheet, I think we've seen a focus on maintenance and then our focus on consistency, which gives us those outcomes.

P
Peter Taylor
executive

The bauxite market strength has returned to or exceeded 2015, 2016 levels. What clarity do you have here on the market supply-demand outlook for the next 12 months or more? And how is Metro positioned to meet customer requirements?

S
Simon Wensley
executive

As I mentioned in the summary, Peter, look, the traded market -- or maybe I should start with domestic market in China. I mean it's obvious now that supply is being constrained out of the domestic bauxite mining sector in China for a number of reasons. Both the quality of the reserves and resources is dropping away. Transport costs are increasing and there's a much greater focus on safety and environmental aspects. And so you're seeing a constriction and a restriction of supply. And that's been predicted for the last few years and you could see it starting to play out.

There are a lot of refineries there now that used to take domestic bauxite that can't access the bauxite that it needs and they are switching to imported bauxite. And that's very much playing into the hands of Metro because of the technology used to treat the domestic bauxite is quite suitable for taking Metro bauxite. And then there are new refineries being built, so being expanded and refurbished, particularly on the coast. And that's where the new demand is going to come from. So again, we've got a very good sense of those projects on my visit, actually went to see a couple of them and their promoters. And so there are obviously project time lines in here but certainly the way that China builds its industrial base, I'm very confident that that's about to flow through. So we are going to see another step up in demand for imported bauxite over the next sort of 12 to 18 months from those projects that are getting built on the coast.

P
Peter Taylor
executive

That's a good lead into the next question. And I've had a couple here, regarding the bauxite's ore body. What can you tell us about the likes of mining operations there, the grade and scale comparison with other bauxite producers?

S
Simon Wensley
executive

The Metro ore body, the most important part of the bauxite is the alumina content. That's the molecule that contains the aluminum that eventually makes it into the metal. We have a very high alumina content. So the bauxite mine from the Weipa plateau is a -- greater than 50% alumina component. So that's critical for any investor in refining and in downstream capacity to want to get as much alumina out of the bauxite ore that they possibly can.

So plus 50% is at the high end of the traded bauxite market. A lot of our competitors are supplying in the 45% or even down in the low 40s of alumina. So there's a significant benefit from that. We have -- our mine plan is based on the -- only the reserve of our product -- of our ore body. So that means it's [indiscernible] related, proven and probable reserve. We have about 90 million tonnes of that reserve life. So that underpins at least 15 years of life from here on for our expanded project.

We also have an additional 30 million to 40 million tonnes of resources that are not yet in that mine plan. And we are recommencing our exploration program this year to go out and find more resources. So there's a very active part of our business over the next 2 or 3 years to add some more mine life to that reserve base.

P
Peter Taylor
executive

And in terms of that, how is Metro placed for this funding to complete the expansion and the ramp-up to occur through the rest of the year and into 2024?

S
Simon Wensley
executive

So the debt packages, the equity raise last year plus the debt package we took out meant that we were confident of giving the full and final investment decision on the project, including the financing in the last quarter. The cash flow we're generating from operations has been greater than we forecast based on where we've been at. So I'm very confident that we have all the funds now that we need to implement all of the projects. So that capital funding will occur throughout 2023 steadily, as the new transhipper is refurbished and serviced and then arrives on site by the end of the year and indeed with the screening plant.

So that -- those capital funds will be expended over this period until the end of March next year. So we are fully funded. And then the forecast in margins for next year based on pretty conservative assumptions, has us starting to pay down some of that debt starting in June, July next year. So we have plenty of headroom in that regard.

P
Peter Taylor
executive

And some more detailed questions here. Perhaps you can discuss the seasonality of the operating cash flows. Is Q2 representative of the cash flows you look to generate through Q2 and Q4? And what's your aspirational look on operating cash flows in a typical Q1 once the expansion is complete?

S
Simon Wensley
executive

Yes, it's a good question. So we start -- we have a 9-month operating season. We are looking to try and push the boundaries on that as we go forward in the next few years. But that's probably a good assumption for the time being. April is normally a start-up month. So we don't normally expect to make much cash in April and we didn't this year. So that's probably a fairly normal outcome. So the bulk of the cash flow then comes in the remaining 8 months.

So as I said, most of that EBITDA for the last quarter came in May and June. We -- under normal circumstances, that would be a good assumption for run rate for the rest of the year. But as I said, we are now starting to ramp up. And last week -- this weekend, just gone, we commenced our dual loading plan, which is to load 2 ocean-going vessels at once using the floating crane but also geared vessels to [indiscernible] over the last couple of days. And that will allow us to ramp up our operation from roughly 450,000 tonnes per month to roughly sort of 650,000 plus tonnes per month for the rest of the year.

So I'm anticipating that both production and cash flow will be stronger for August through to December. So we should see an uplift in that cash flow generation for the rest of the year. We then have our off-season in January, February and March, which is important for us this year as we're going to be finalizing the implementation of the expansion so that we're ready for the start again in end of March, beginning of April next year.

P
Peter Taylor
executive

We see outlook looking pretty optimistic given recent efficiencies and the expansion. How does the company see its balance sheet and gearing levels looking going forward? What's your plan for that?

S
Simon Wensley
executive

Yes. So the cash flow we generated in Q2 this year, we were also able to pay off some of the existing debt. So we paid off roughly 2.5% plus the interest -- accrued interest on some of that debt. So we're already starting to look at that gearing. We -- as I said, this is a growth year, so we don't anticipate -- or 12 months from now, we don't anticipate paying down much of the debt in that space as we're basically still expending capital.

But as I mentioned, we are forecasting sufficient cash flows to start paying down principal as planned in June, July next year. So from that perspective, the gearing will start to come down in that period. We -- the Nebari loan doesn't start to get principal repaid until 2025. So we've got some -- quite some time yet to build the cash balance to be able to pay that down.

P
Peter Taylor
executive

And so to increase quality, will Metro shift from DSO bauxite to wash bauxite and is there a premium for that product?

S
Simon Wensley
executive

Look, it's a project that's under consideration. Obviously, strategy suggests you should always try and move up the quality continuum. But there are also significant costs to doing that, both capital and operating costs. So we're going to continue to study beneficiation option at Bauxite Hills. It's not clear to me that the benefit outweighs the cost at this point. So we're going to continue to look at that option. It does open up the potential for us to access more resources. So that is a benefit but we'll do some more exploration drilling just to make sure we know how much of the benefit we can actually accrue as part of the [ washing ]strategy.

So at the moment, we have no problem in selling the quality of bauxite that we're producing. I anticipate that to be the case for the foreseeable future. So it really does become a cost benefit sort of analysis for us to put in place. So right now, from a capital perspective, I wouldn't -- I'm not intending to add to the debt position to be able to do that. So I'd like to see us pay down a fair bit of that debt before we contemplate any further addition.

P
Peter Taylor
executive

Truly. Thank you, Simon. Thanks for a good comprehensive overview and we're looking forward to seeing how things roll out from here. We've covered most of the questions, if anybody wants specifically answered, please send them through to peter@nwrcommunications.com.au.

Thank everybody for joining us here today and thanks for your time well, Simon.

S
Simon Wensley
executive

My pleasure. Thank you.

All Transcripts

2023