Syrah Resources Ltd
ASX:SYR
Earnings Call Analysis
Summary
Q4-2023
Syrah's Q4 focused on adapting to market shifts from China's graphite export controls, affecting Balama's production and sales and Vidalia anode plant commissioning. Balama produced 20k tonnes, sold 21k tonnes including inventory to Vidalia, at a reduced basket price of $490 CIF, with a focus on cash preservation. Vidalia's commissioning faced delays, but purification progress was made, eyeing imminent production ramp-up with total costs now at $209 million. Balama's strategy for cash flow breakeven is challenged by China's policies, impacting annual performance with 94k tonnes sold at $582 average. The geopolitical changes underscore Syrah's critical role in non-Chinese anode material supply, with plans for a U.K. expansion through a joint venture also underway.
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Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Syrah Resources Limited Q4 Quarterly Results Update Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Shaun Verner, Managing Director and CEO. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning, and thanks for joining the call today. With me I have Steve Wells, our Chief Financial Officer; and Viren Hira, our General Manager of BD and Investor Relations. And we'll give the slide deck we released along with today's report for this call. On Slide 3, we continue to progress toward our vision of becoming a major integrated anode material supplier to globally significant customers. And today, we'll cover both Q4 operating performance and work through our views on how some fundamental geopolitical actions and market developments have repositioned and strengthened the strategic value of the Balama and Vidalia assets despite near-term uncertainty. On Slide 4, we continue to differentiate Syrah from Chinese producers and from development projects by designing and operating sustainability, a key driver from the ground up. And I encourage you to review our quarterly sustainability report, which will be up on our website from later today, but I wanted to highlight in particular the safety commitment and performance across the Vidalia project through the last 2 years and the commencement of the solar and battery system at Balama as key milestones through the quarter as well as our pursuit of IRMA certification, as a first in graphite globally. Moving to Slide 5 and our Q4, 2023 performance. The quarter was marked by the impacts of China's announcement and later implementation of graphite and anode product export license controls. And our activities were focused on understanding and adapting Balama sales and production to that market uncertainty, whilst progressing with Vidalia anode material plant commissioning, demobilizing the vast majority of project resources there and continuing the handover to operations. At Balama, as guided last quarter, one production campaign was undertaken with 20,000 tonnes of natural graphite produced and 21,000 tonnes sold and shipped, including inventory to Vidalia. Weak market conditions, the details of which I'll cover in more detail shortly, led to a focus on Balama campaign production and cash preservation, as the basket price declined 7% quarter-on-quarter to $490 CIF. Operational performance saw solid recoveries at 77% despite campaign operations with an FOB C1 cost during operations of $534 a tonne, impacted by lower production volumes and slightly below target recoveries and non-operating period costs of $4 million per month, in line with our expectations. With average sea freight costs at $80 a tonne ex-Vidalia currently, clearly, low volumes and current cost structures can't be maintained definitely. With greater clarity on the implementation of China's export controls being the major factor determining the strategic options for Balama's operating mode in the months ahead. At Vidalia, significant progress was made in commissioning the anode material plant, but the target of production prior to the end of Q4 was not reached given the combination of delays in purification plant commission and further impact of weather during January. The commissioning is focused on safely operating and ramping up all areas of the [ 11.25k ] tonne facility at Vidalia with production of unpurified and purified precursor materials now achieved and the final focus now on pitch coating and carbonization. We'll be ramping up anode material production imminently and working through the processes of product qualification for commercial sales with our customers. Whilst capital equipment and construction expenditure has been broadly within expectations, the timing delay on first production against plan has been the key factor in seeing total installed capital costs increasing to USD 209 million. Major progress was made in commercial and funding processes in Q4 with the advance of negotiations for offtake sales from Balama, the long-term contracts with developing ex-China anode material facilities, which we expect to make further announcements about soon and progress in anode material commercial arrangements to underpin further expansion of the Vidalia facility. Both of these streams have worked evidence the increasing criticality of the Balama and Vidalia assets to the build-out of the ex-China supply chain. As one step in our plans for European expansion, we've also signed an MOU for assessment of joint venture development for an anode material facility in conjunction with Tees Valley Graphite in the U.K., accessing the attractive infrastructure of the Wilton Industrial Park in trade zone and with a strong focus on government funding, and we'll provide more insight into this in future updates. Steve will cover the financial position later with the final advance of the DOE loan for Vidalia's construction and progress on the DFC loan to Balama have been primary focus in recent months, along with further DOE funding progress for future Vidalia expansion. On Slide 6, the full year picture of Balama was enormously impacted by China's dominant [ share ] and government policy intervention in synthetic graphite, natural graphite and anode material markets, impacting overall demand for Syrah. Total 2023 natural graphite production across our campaigns was 94,000 tonnes with plant recovery averaging 74% and an 89% fine to 11% coarse like split. 94,000 tonnes were sold and shipped for the year, including 9,000 tonnes to Vidalia inventory and a weighted average sales price to customers of $582 a tonne was achieved. Strategy of maintaining operating capacity and moving to a campaign operating mode is necessary at Balama, both for market readiness and for Vidalia supply, but obviously impacted the cash position. Matching Balama sales and production for a cash flow breakeven position remains the urgent minimum target for the company, but has been significantly impacted by Chinese commercial and government actions through the course of the year. On Slide 7, the construction and commissioning of Vidalia of the first integrated commercial scale natural graphite anode material plant outside China continued through Q4 and into January with some very strong progress albeit behind the schedule. Positively, the delays experienced in commissioning the purification plant have now been resolved and first purified spherical graphite has been produced, which is another first for a commercial plant in the U.S. Recently, the coldest weather in our area of Louisiana in 30 years, had a significant impact, requiring [ hard freeze ] preparation, as the plant was in commissioning, actions that mostly would not be necessary in normal operating mode, but which essentially delayed activity further 2 weeks. The operating team has, however, adapted quickly from project into operating mode and are focused on the high quality and consistency required from the battery anode material plant. We'll provide further updates around commissioning and production very soon. Moving to recent market conditions on Slides 8 and 9. Overall, despite some recent negative commentary on EV growth rates slowing, the increase in sales during 2023 was 37% year-on-year was again astonishing. This saw a continuing ramp-up in anode material demand with disorderly supply in China from expanded artificial graphite anode material capacity with total Chinese anode material production growing 28% year-on-year, lower than EV growth rates and the increased energy storage battery demand, implying that some drawdown in anode material inventory occurred through the year. Market conditions for Balama have been enormously challenging, driven by subeconomic pricing of artificial graphite anode material in the China domestic market. reducing short-term demand for natural graphite anode material in China and the major impacts of China's announcement and implementation of export restrictions in Q4, [ startling ] the burgeoning improvement in market conditions that were being seen in September and early October. China swung from a net importer of natural graphite halfway through the year, as domestic natural graphite demand fell. Spherical graphite produces reduced production due to low precursor prices and import demand was further impacted by export license uncertainties. Finally, November saw domestic producers in China strongly front run the implementation of the export controls with 3x to 4x the normal monthly volumes exported, driving ex-China markets into disorderly purchasing patterns. Prices for natural graphite declined through the year, as the impact of Chinese commercial and government actions flow through to the market. Large segments of the Chinese graphite and anode market are now uneconomic with artificial graphite prices below cost in many plants, very low levels of utilization in artificial graphite anode material producers and spherical producers, natural graphite prices below the cost of production for most Chinese mines and low transaction volumes. Put simply the current state of the Chinese market is unsustainable. The significance of China's actions on the near-term graphite and anode product markets is outlined on Slide 10 and can't be stated strongly enough. They fundamentally altered the geopolitical and trade landscape for anode and the battery and electric vehicle supply chain. The imposition of export licensing at a national level was announced on October 20, and the immediate impact was Chinese exporters seeking to export all available inventory ahead of the imposition of the controls. Given Chinese producer concerns over the granting of export permits, they also reduced feedstock imports, creating a perfect storm of short-term oversupply ex-China and reduced demand for imports into China. Overall, anode material demand is still strong, and the supply chain ex-China will start to be stretched. And OEMs and battery producers are deeply concerned about China exports, meaning new processing and trade flow options are under consideration and the investment, but are not immediate fixes. In the medium term, this is very positive for Syrah. Simply put, [ either the world's gives in and says ] Chinese supplied artificial graphite is the only anode solution, both Balama and Vidalia will be critical to any other outcome. In the short term, the China export licensing process will influence Balama's operating rate, with further production campaign runs determined by demand, price and inventory drawdown. Ex-China industrial customers of natural graphite are also concerned. And as the short-term inventory purchased in November starts to be drawn down, their mines also turn to longer-term supply [ certainty ]. We'll take the opportunity in a moment to frame how this has elevated Syrah's criticality to the global energy storage transition. First, I'll hand over to Steve to provide an update on the current financial position and progress with various funding initiatives. Steve?
Thanks, Shaun. As of the 31st of December 2023, the Syrah Group had USD 85 million in cash, including $47 million in unrestricted cash. Restricted cash includes cash at our Vidalia subsidiary, which is restricted under the DOE ATVM loan program, including cash from the loan drawdown and required to complete payments for construction purposes, as well as standard project finance loan reserves for construction, which can be transferred to working capital reserves, as production commences, and the facility ramps up in volume. This compares to total cash of $81 million at the end of the third quarter, including $31 million of restricted cash and $50 million of unrestricted cash. During the quarter, we completed the third and final drawdown under the ATVM loan facility of $32 million, resulting in an effective interest rate for the 9-year loan of 3.98%, which is the weighted average interest rate across the 3 drawdowns at the 10-year U.S. treasury rate. We also issued the third tranche of the AustralianSuper convertible notes that were arranged in the second quarter of 2023. Delays in the completion of construction of Vidalia have contributed to a drawdown on cash, mostly due to the delay in completion rather than a significant increase in construction costs themselves. We expect total construction costs of $209 million, a 5% increase from the $198 million previously advised and 19% higher than the original $176 million advised. In addition to existing cash, we continue to work with the U.S. Development Finance Corporation on $150 million loan facility for our Mozambique subsidiary, which owns the Balama mine with loan documentation received and drawdown to be affected, as soon as practical after completion of that discussion. Simultaneously, we continue to progress due diligence with the U.S. Department of Energy under the ATVM loan program for Phase III, the same program as the existing Phase II loans. Further Vidalia development costs will be driven by the pace of customer commitments. Looking forward, Syrah continues to focus on maximizing short-term sales from Balama, monitoring pricing dynamics and supply competition and managing costs at Balama, as closely as possible, noting that a significant amount of competing supply has moderated or stopped production and Chinese inventories have been drawn down. Further exploration of cost control will be undertaken in conjunction with the matching of Balama operation to the market and requirements for Vidalia. Ultimately, in the short term, the evolution of the Chinese market will determine Balama's operating mode and the ability to generate breakeven cash flows and Syrah's overall position. We clearly have a very strong strategic position and development of ex-China sales will result in diversification away from China for battery fines materials towards increasingly interested ex-China counterparties, as well as [ our anode ] internal use of Balama material through Vidalia. I'll now pass you back to Shaun.
Thanks, Steve. As we've noted, political and policy actions, commercial implications and market conditions have fundamentally shifted Syrah's global position. We believe it's critical to frame this as context for the coming years since the capital invested, operational experience gained, and customer relationship Syrah has in place through an unparalleled platform for generation of shareholder value. Moving to Slide 12, in short, the global graphite and anode market is in a state of structural flux, realigning along geopolitical lines and focused on security of supply, which will drive margin and volume opportunities for Syrah in the medium term. The key difference being that many of the things that we in the past believe may happen are now occurring. This may well be countercyclical to other battery materials, as minimal ex-China upstream natural graphite supply options are being developed today due to weak price signals, but anode processing capacity investment decisions are being taken to service the future nearly 1 million tonnes of ex-China anode material demand expected by 2030. And this may lead to potentially significant and enduring imbalance in ex-China natural graphite and anode supply that Syrah's developed assets will benefit from. Syrah's advantages into this opportunity and the ability to provide long-term large-scale integrated supply, a strongly differentiated ESG position, contributing to emissions reduction, geopolitical independence and well-developed commercial relationships and clear compliance with U.S. and European ownership, funding and incentive requirements. On Slide 13, Syrah leads the ex-China industry in development and operations, especially where integrated upstream supply into anode material is critical. Whilst Korean and Japanese anode material production is well established, it lacks upstream natural graphite and precursor supply and integration and remains today, wholly reliant on Chinese feedstocks and is only now developing supply options for IRA and FEOC compliance. With more than 10 years of development, Syrah is at least 5 and probably 8 years advanced on ex-China project peers with more than $700 million of investment to date in the development operation, product qualification and commercial sales pipeline and deep operating experience. Critically, the fastest ex-China capacity to be developed given the current need for independents will be anode material processing capacity and not mine supply. Syrah's Balama operation, therefore, stands to benefit significantly from this expansion, which lacks independent foreign entity of concern and Inflation Reduction Act compliant natural graphite supply. In this position, you've seen the support of U.S. government funding agencies, something that's only been possible through long engagement and due diligence processes. On Slide 14, there is no doubt that the current low graphite prices do not support most existing operations, let alone the inducement of new supply. Importantly, many of the new supply projects out there are dependent on high coarse flake or industrial market price forecast to support their development. A significant increase in the fines price is therefore required to induce any material investment. Much of the project base we see through experience is underestimating capital and is optimistic on timing. So not only are higher prices required to see new supply, but in a world, where ex-China project funding is extremely difficult, we believe the supply curve is likely to steepen significantly. And this could potentially occur concurrent with periods of oversupply and weaker pricing for other battery materials such as lithium and nickel generating a differentiated value opportunity. On Slide 15, the lack of ex-China supply creates demand as China's dominant share of production and geopolitical headwinds drive a need for increased production capacity outside China. Balama and Vidalia supply is absolutely critical to address that imbalance. There is a strong pipeline of battery manufacturing capacity in North America and Europe, leading to demand for more than 700,000 tonnes of natural graphite feeds and 350,000 tonnes of natural graphite anode material required for ex-China battery facilities if they're operating capacity by the end of 2025, the volume expected to triple by 2035 and unable to be supplied given the existing ex-China capacity. Supply versus demand is highly geographically disproportionate in anode materials and natural graphite today with 90% of anode material and 70% of natural graphite coming from China, which is fundamentally different from other battery materials, leading to an urgent need for ex-China OEMs and battery manufacturers to solve their ex-China supply sourcing issue. On Slide 16, the ex-China market size and growth opportunity for Syrah is compelling. Our existing plant and planned production capacities represent only a fraction of the opportunity in the ex-China addressable market and ex-China customers need certainty of future supply now. In 2025, Balama operating at full capacity would represent 42% of ex-China natural graphite demand falling to 18% by 2030, as battery-driven demand grows. Vidalia had planned [ 11,000 tonne and 45,000 tonne ] capacity represents only 4% and 6% of ex-China anode demand over the same time periods. Importantly, the long development lead times for additional capacities mean that Syrah has a lead time advantage and can access sales, market-based pricing, as a gap in competing supply occurs. The ex-China opportunity in addressable markets enormous [ over at ] $1.5 billion per annum in natural graphite and expected to exceed $4.5 billion per annum in anode material by 2030. On the next slide, the most impactful strategic developments arising from the geopolitical realization on Chinese supply dominance has been extensive government support for ex-China development. And in response, the recent imposition of China export controls and supply into current demand. Government support ex-China is taking multiple forms across jurisdictions, but the most impactful has been financial commitments towards capacity development, something strongly championed by OEMs and battery customers and other stakeholders. Syrah's strong support from the U.S. government under the DOE ATVM loan program, drawing down over $100 million in funding for Vidalia's current expansion. And more recently, the advancement of DFC funding for a potential $150 million for Balama demonstrate the result of the U.S. and align governments to open and champion alternative sources of critical minerals supply. On the next slide, Syrah is therefore the first and most substantial vertically integrated natural graphite supply option outside China and will be critical to supporting other anode material capacity development. Our strategy to develop our own additional anode material capacity will be customer-led with further expansion options in the U.S. and development opportunity in Europe and Asia. Steve will now take you through Syrah's planned market exposure and Balama asset position.
Thanks very much, Shaun. Moving to Slide 19. We see the most important shift in exposure and value for Syrah, namely geographic diversification in Balama's natural graphite sales to active anode material and battery markets from 2024 and 2025 in particular through sales of Balama material to developing AAM facilities in the U.S., South Korea, Europe and Indonesia amongst others. Syrah is targeting well above 100,000 tonnes per annum Balama fine sales to third-party active anode material customers ex-China from late '25 and into 2026. Refined volumes into Vidalia expected to be around 75,000 tonnes, the expanded Vidalia plant by a similar tonne, and overall demand growth requiring increased supply, pricing tension for China and ex-China natural graphite sales will definitively improve. Natural graphite supply to China will remain a key market for Balama material in the short term. And importantly, Chinese active anode material producers are rapidly developing ex-China capacity often in JV in order to seek compliance for sales in ex-China markets. Balama supply is critical to their positioning with ex-China customers on this front. On Slide 20, this supply diversification objective is delivered through an upstream position [ without peer ]. Balama is the world's premier graphite resource and operation with a cut-off grade above many competing project development reserve grades, Balama's quality differential is material. The limited pipeline of new ex-China supply underpinned by largely inferior resource characteristics compared with Balama and the differential of Balama's operating cost position will become clear, as capacity utilization increases. First [indiscernible] position with OpEx around $3.50 per tonne to $3.90 per tonne when operating at capacity. It takes time, funding, expertise and resources to develop new mines, as well as customer qualification material. All of these are ahead of the many graphite projects being developed. Turning to Slide 1 -- sorry, beg your pardon, turning to Slide 21. This slide demonstrates that Syrah has massive advantages over new graphite projects with lower capacity and capital intensity for expansion and lower operating costs and proven high production capacity. The biggest risk for developers is simply that plant CapEx, OpEx and performance does not meet expectations and that estimates have been too optimistic. Syrah's enterprise value relative to contained resource is the lowest amongst peers, demonstrating significant upside as price and performance improvement is demonstrated, noting also that development projects have very significant future capital requirements to source in an enormously challenging funding environment. And on Slide 22, the capital invested, and the team developed at Balama, and the deep operating experience built is a huge value, as we move ahead. Our assets are first class and maintaining market access is important to continuing to build this position. I'll now pass you back to Shaun.
Thanks, Steve, and moving to Slide 23. Vidalia is the cornerstone of Syrah's downstream business. And after more than 6 years of U.S. development is expected to deliver qualified product sales revenue and the platform for future expansion through the course of this year. We've developed mutually beneficial customer relationships that are bringing further offtake to the [ floor ] shortly with a focus on long-term market-based pricing to bring forth the development value against the almost $300 million of total anode material development and the investment already done, notably when nobody else is really doing so. FID for an expansion at Vidalia and other options, including Europe will be customer offtake and funding driven, ensuring customers pull through, as the key driver for investment decisions. On Slide 24, whilst higher product pricing is required to induce ex-China anode supply, Syrah's Vidalia project has been established to be competitive on a conservative experience-based cost buildup and sensible pricing assumptions. Should the pricing required to induce many independent projects come to [ pass ] with significant upside margin opportunity for Syrah. The adoption of market-based pricing mechanisms and new offtake ensures that value would flow through in line with changes in the supply-demand balance. Our Phase 1 operations since 2018 and the Vidalia Phase 2 project that's now coming into production, given, Syrah a very strong insight into the requirements, successful development and expertise in both construction and operations, and we'll continue to leverage this experience into future capacity expansion. On Slide 25, Syrah's integrated Balama Vidalia ESG and emissions intensity position is strongly differentiated from existing production in China, demonstrating less than half the average global warming potential of benchmark to Chinese natural graphite anode material operations and around 70% less than Chinese artificial graphite anode material operations. Put simply, using Vidalia anode material reduces emissions intensity in the area of the battery cell that contributes most to the global warming potential of lithium-ion batteries. Syrah's sustainability development that is core to the way we operate, provides deep auditability that Chinese producers simply do not provide, and our quarterly sustainability external reporting gives great insight to customers that the process is being followed to see a continuous improvement focus on these fronts. So on Slide 26, Syrah's incumbent position can embed key advantages at the time of major global market upheaval. There are huge opportunities inherent in the position. A rapidly expanding customer base in ex-China anode material, along with the existing China base requiring higher volume of natural graphite supply will see the transition to a higher average margin Balama sales. Ex-China battery manufacturers and automakers require certainty and secure long-term volume [ for ] ex-China anode materials line, meaning that Syrah has a clear lead time advantage in building the ex-China anode material sales book. At a time when stakeholders and customers are motivated to underpin further expansion, our production capability and supplier qualification see customer-driven contracting progressing, collaboration on product characteristics and government funding commitments to Syrah's success. On Slide 27, our planned milestones for 2024 will accelerate our development and de-risk strategy. The catalysts [ head ] include starting production and commercial sales later in the year from our Vidalia facility, further offtake agreements for Vidalia, Balama natural graphite offtake contracts with ex-China anode material customers, progression of the U.S. DFC funding for Balama, progress on U.S. DOE loan funding for the Vidalia further expansion project and importantly, in the near term, decisions on balancing China demand and Balama production. And lastly, of course, we'll continue to progress towards FID on the Vidalia further expansion project in line with other progress in customer and funding commitments. To conclude on Slide 28, Syrah's value proposition is clearly focused on generating shareholder value through the Balama and Vidalia assets. Recent years have been extremely challenging for shareholders and stakeholders with many market disruptions and now Chinese government intervention in the anode material and graphite markets. The company's focus has always been on the preservation of control of assets, generation of funding options, wherever possible to minimize dilution and continuing to progress development. With the support of the U.S. DOE and DFC, our Mozambiquan stakeholders, our shareholders and increasingly ex-China customers were pursuing ahead multiple years of high-margin market-driven benefit, as ex-China anode material capacity growth and the need for Balama volume growth. And Vidalia's continuing development provides opportunity into a very strong U.S. demand environment for IRA compliant and non-foreign entity of concern of products. Our operating, marketing and corporate teams remain singularly focused on generating this value for our shareholders despite the challenging conditions. And with that, I'll move across to Q&A.
[Operator Instructions] The first question today comes from Mark Fichera from Foster Stockbroking.
Just a couple of questions from me. I guess, I guess, firstly, on the ex-China anode projects globally that you're looking to obviously do an offtake agreement for Balama [ with ]. In terms of the type of customers are you looking at, are they both new entrants and incumbents in the anode space? And also secondly, in your discussions with them, do you think you can get a premium for your Balama supply being outside of China in terms of graphite supply?
Thanks, Mark. Yes. Look, obviously, the ex-China anode material project base has expanded significantly over the last couple of years. Firstly, there are a number of projects from new entrants into the market, some from adjacent industries with experience in these areas. But more recently, the changes and challenges with regard to the dominance of Chinese supply, the export restrictions and the foreign entity of concern and IRA implementation from the U.S. has seen a number of incumbent players. Interestingly, both ex-China and Chinese players looking to expand overseas now. There are a range of projects across the U.S., Korea, India, Indonesia and Europe, and it's been important for us to be engaged with all of those potential players. Obviously, those with incumbent production have the fastest path to a large-scale development and potentially also the largest initial volume requirements. So that's certainly been a focus. The interesting thing, as I mentioned, is the fact that a number of Chinese anode material producers seeking to build will have projects underway outside China. And in conjunction with the foreign entity of concern guidelines implemented by the U.S., they are looking at the ownership structures for those plants to potentially make themselves eligible for delivery under foreign entity of concern and various incentive programs. So there is a lot happening on that front. The intensity of interaction around that has just lifted hugely through the last quarter with the announcement of the Chinese export licensing processes. And as I said during the course of the presentation, we expect to make some further announcements on that soon. With regard to pricing, obviously, the pricing dynamic for ex-China material is different from the pricing inside China, both from a freight differential and also competing supplier, available alternative supply perspective. So we're seeking to obviously bring those market dynamics into those offtake discussions.
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Dim Ariyasinghe from UBS.
Just a couple of questions. So first on price, in relation to the China export controls. I mean, [ when ] the news came out and surfaced, it probably appeared net positive for Syrah, but the price hasn't gone -- continues to go away from you. Can you maybe summarize why that is and whether you expect maybe a short potential further downside from here?
Yes. Thanks, Dim. So it's a twofold answer to that question. The first is what happened in the very short term after the announcement and prior to the implementation. So Chinese suppliers of natural graphite, spherical graphite and anode material and their customers outside China sought to move, as much material from China to those export markets as possible through a few days of October and into November before the implementation of the controls from the 1st of December. And what that meant was 3x to 4x the volume of those products coming out of China in November and flowing obviously into those markets in December. And then secondly, the slow and as yet with undefined intent around implementation of export permits or export licenses has meant that Chinese spherical producers and anode material producers have been cautious about rebuilding inventory and import orders until they get greater certainty around exports. That goes for domestic consumption as well. So the transaction volume in this market in the last couple of months, it's been far lower, and some pricing has been driven, in our view, by liquidation of stocks from some producers in China, who just needed cash flow through this period. In terms of where to from here, the demand of spherical and anode material producers in China, for import material from Balama is very closely linked to what Chinese authorities do around export permits. The positives from our side, I think, are that inventory has been drawn down in China. And the processes have not necessarily rebuilt stocks because they don't have visibility on the potential for their export orders. And that's occurred at a time when China is in its seasonal low period for domestic natural graphite production. So we don't believe that there is a significant amount of stock build. And we believe that as permits are granted, and as spherical and anode producers get greater visibility on their ability to export that orders will increase in there. Obviously, price is going to be driven by that balance of domestic and import supply. But as I said during the call, we just don't see that current prices are going to induce return from seasonal production for natural graphite producers in China.
Awesome. And maybe another question, maybe Steve, just on the DFC loan. Could you remind us what -- if there are any covenants attached to that? And I guess, what the cash can be spent on other [ assisted buying ] check or [indiscernible] nothing [indiscernible] strict limits on what it can be useful?
Yes. So there's a couple of uses of proceeds, Dim. It's $150 million loan and $50 million of that is [ necessarily ] available in a number of years relating to when we expect to develop the next TSF cell. So it's a really important capital expenditure item for us over the course of that -- over the course of the loan. The remaining amount has uses of proceeds around existing TSF spend, working capital and sustaining capital, and also potential development of the vanadium resource. So very much set up for a period like this, where we potentially have working capital and sustaining capital cash outflows through a period of low production. It's sort of a standard sort of corporate and project finance loan for a business in this sort of position. So there are obviously covenants around it. And that's sort of some of the stuff that we're working through in terms of the loan documentation.
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Ben Lyons from Jarden Securities Limited.
Shaun, you placed some appropriate emphasis on the cost curve for both natural and synthetic graphite during your opening comments and how that relates to the current pricing environment. You also alluded to some seasonal influences on the supply side in China. But to see a meaningful improvement in the price for this commodity, is it fair that we need to see some structural supply responses? And are you seeing any early signs of a structural response from either the natural or synthetic graphite supply side in China?
Thanks, Ben. Yes. Let me start with the synthetic side. I mean, I think the -- as we've discussed previously, the sort of major increase in production capacity that has been built in China in artificial graphite anode material over the last couple of years has outrun the demand for that product. And what that has seen is just an extremely brutal domestic pricing and market share war, particularly in the low and medium density segments of that market. The -- in talking to the major anode material manufacturers in China, and particularly those that are present in both the synthetic and natural graphite anode material segments, they absolutely expect that rationalization must occur. And at the moment, we have a strong view that the artificial graphite cost curve itself hasn't materially changed, given primary drivers of power cost and input materials haven't changed. There's been some economy of scale in size of facilities. And therefore, the decline in price has been primarily driven by this competition dynamic. And therefore, some rationalization has to occur. In terms of is that occurring, I think the main thing that we see at the moment is very low levels of utilization for a number of those new entrants. And that's putting enormous pressure on their ability to continue to operate. In terms of the natural graph side, absolutely current prices have seen reduction of a number of natural graphite mines outside of the seasonal production. And where it's been most evident has been in spherical graphite processing capacity, where the anode material producers buying spherical graphite running tenders have meant that quite a number of spherical processes have just not participated in those tenders, given the low prices for spherical graphite at the moment and have either reduced or [ shutted ] their capacity. Now the important thing, of course, is what does all that mean in the long term, does price improvement, see some of that capacity come back online. And certainly, the spherical graphite processing capacity coming back online is necessary for us to see a material increase in demand. But I think probably the most important issue that we are seeing is that development of ex-China anode material capacity driving a new source of demand and driving source -- driving demand for [ sources ] material that does not come from the Chinese supply base. And on that basis, it's a fundamentally different question, as to what supply is available with Balama being, by far, the largest and most appropriate source of supply.
Great. Thank you very much for the very comprehensive response, Shaun.
The next question comes from Andrew Harrington from Petra Capital.
Referring to Slide 15, we're talking a lot about ex-China demand, and you're saying that in next year, in 2025, there's 700,000 tonnes of demand required for natural graphite for anode -- active anode material outside of China. Where is that demand? Is that -- and does that include your own demand and say, target demand and [indiscernible] demand, which is effectively self-supplied look out of those [ plants ] or who else is going to be demanding material?
Yes. So that demand requirement is very much driven by battery manufacturing capacity development and operation outside of China. So all of the battery manufacturing plant operations and expansions in Europe, U.S., Asia, et cetera. The source of demand outside China, i.e., ex-China demand sources for anode material and particularly in the U.S., the preference there would clearly be for foreign entity of concern or IRA compliant anode material supply. I think it's important to recognize that there is no scenario under which ex-China anode material operations can supply all of that ex-China demand in the short term because those facilities just haven't -- that capacity facilities just haven't been developed. So if a Chinese -- sorry, ex-Chinese battery manufacturing capacity is to be utilized, it will require some degree or a significant portion of supply from China. And that's why this question of how China implements these export license controls is so significant because without increasing supply ex-China through the development of new facilities and without ongoing supply of anode material from China, the ex-China battery manufacturing capacity simply will not be able to produce the batteries that they need to for EV growth.
So that's a -- I guess, that's a derivation of the factory [Technical difficulty]. We still need to sell the material to China to make the PSG.
Yes. So there's no doubt, both of those things need to happen because in the short term, China will still be the dominant supplier of both natural and artificial graphite anode material. And therefore, it will be a market that imports natural graphite material. But secondly, for ex-China battery manufacturing capacity, they have to grow the proportion of anode material that's being sourced ex-China f they're going to comply with foreign entry of concern and various incentive programs.
And if I may, a second question in terms of the, I guess, that bifurcation, if China is it, the world unto itself in terms of pricing, oversupply in China will mean lower prices, but it doesn't mean that anybody else outside China can get it at those prices. Is there -- are you working on a way to have a price marker that indicates East Africa price or something like that, so that it reflects the fact that -- do you need an indicator that is for the rest of the world.
Absolutely. At the moment, the China market is the price determinant, both domestic consumption and export. But clearly, as additional anode material facilities demand natural graphite outside China and battery manufacturing facilities demand anode material from sources outside China, they will be reporting in indices that develop, which reflect the supply/demand dynamics in different regions. So we absolutely expect that to happen, and we are actively involved in making sure that the price reporters have information, which enables them to start building that view.
The next question comes from [ John Stanning Ford ], Private Investor.
I'm unclear as to whether natural graphite and synthetic graphite are direct competitors or are they quite separate markets?
No, there is clearly a degree of substitutability in the anode. But there are different quality specifications, that's natural and artificial graphite anode material are stronger in. So the vast majority of anode material is a blend of natural and artificial graphite products. And that's been historically in the last couple of years has been around 60% artificial, 40% natural. In China, at the moment, clearly, price-driven substitution has pushed that blend further in favor of artificial graphite. But ex-China, the blend ratio appears to be similar to what it's been historically because ex-China producers have not sought to access new entrants, where there's potential quality challenges around some of this lower priced artificial graphite. But in short, there are -- there is substitutability on some parameters, but natural and artificial graphite are both used in blends in anode material.
The next question comes from James Wright from Shaw and Partners.
Just when do you anticipate first Vidalia product will be delivered to Tesla?
So obviously, first production out of Vidalia is something that we expect to happen imminently. The first focus on production from Vidalia is around samples required for the ongoing qualification processes for Tesla. And as soon as we have material on specification, that material will go straight into Tesla.
At this time, we're showing no further questions. I'll hand the conference back to Shaun for closing remarks.
Thanks to everyone for participation and interest today. Clearly, a time of upheaval in this market. And we remain extraordinarily focused on navigating what is a challenging path and look forward to keeping everyone updated. Thank you very much for the participation.