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Embraer SA
BOVESPA:EMBR3

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Embraer SA
BOVESPA:EMBR3
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Price: 33.2 BRL 3.27% Market Closed
Updated: Apr 28, 2024

Earnings Call Analysis

Q4-2023 Analysis
Embraer SA

Impressive Growth and Positive Outlook

In a year marked by intensified commercial activity and overcoming supply chain delays, the company delivered double-digit growth across all business units, leading to a 30% increase in adjusted EBIT year-over-year and generated over $300 million in free cash flow, surpassing guidance. Record backlogs were seen in Commercial Aviation ($18.7 billion) and Services & Support ($3.1 billion), with revenues in Commercial and Executive Aviation and Defense & Security growing by 20%, 11%, and 25% respectively. For 2024, forecasts include 18% more aircraft deliveries in Commercial Aviation and an estimated revenue between $6 billion to $6.4 billion, with a projected free cash flow of $220 million or better.

Solid Growth and Investment-Grade Status Achieved

The year 2023 marked a period of intensified commercial activity across all business units of the company, with robust demand observed in key markets. Notably, the company's successful contract with American Airlines in the early part of 2024 elevated the Commercial Aviation book-to-bill ratio above 1:1 in the first quarter, underscoring the business unit's strong performance. Despite the challenges posed by supply chain delays, the company achieved double-digit growth in aircraft deliveries, services, and revenues, with the backlog soaring to $18.7 billion, a six-year high. The adjusted EBIT surged by 30% year-on-year, accompanied by a free cash flow of over $300 million, outperforming guidance expectations. This notable financial strength has restored the company's investment-grade rating, signifying a disciplined execution strategy and robust foundational growth.

Commercial Aviation Flies High with 20% Revenue Increase

The Commercial Aviation unit shined with a 20% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching $1.85 billion due to a favorable product mix and increased deliveries, particularly from the E2 family whose deliveries more than doubled. Quarter-on-quarter, the adjusted EBIT margin improved to 4.6%. Furthermore, the segment secured a pivotal order from Porter Airlines for 25 Embraer E195-E2 jets, contributing to a positive outlook for the forthcoming periods. The overall aircraft deliveries for the year stood at 64, which maintained a stable adjusted EBIT margin at 1.1%.

Executive Aviation Experiences Margin Pressure Despite Delivery Growth

Executive Aviation's adjusted EBIT margin slightly declined to 9% in 2023, from 12.2% in the previous year, partly due to product mix and one-time tax benefits. However, with a book-to-bill above 1:1.3 and a backlog expansion to $4.3 billion, the business unit delivered 115 jets, marking an annual increase of 13% and the highest volume in seven years. Notably, the Phenom 300 remained the world's best-selling light jet, which underscored the sector's resilient performance amidst the margin contraction.

Defense & Security Achieves a 25% Revenue Leap with Global Expansion

Remarkably, the Defense & Security business unit saw a 25% uptick in revenue to $515 million, fueled by greater C-390 volumes and new international customers like South Korea. In addition, Melh agreement with Mahindra in India and SAMI in Saudi Arabia broadened the business's global reach. Although the adjusted EBIT margin underwent fluctuations, ending the year at 5.5% from 2.4% in 2022, the consolidation of key partnerships promises a robust pipeline for future sales efforts.

Services & Support and Eve Embark on Record Highs and Innovative Pathways

Services & Support not only sustained a double-digit adjusted EBIT margin, but also set a new record with a backlog totaling $3.1 billion, indicating 19% year-over-year growth. As for Eve, the company's undertaking for Urban Air Mobility solutions, significant strides were made including the assembly of the first full-scale prototype. A successful test of its Urban Air Traffic Management software in the U.K. further positioned Eve for a leap into its manufacturing phase after anticipating the inaugural test flight of its full-scale prototype.

Fulfilling 2023 Guidance and Charting the Financial Outlook for 2024

The company met its 2023 financial guidance, which included key indicators such as net revenue, adjusted EBIT and EBITDA, and free cash flow—despite lower than planned aircraft deliveries. A testament to its resilience, the backlog rose by $1.2 billion, a 7% year-over-year increase, with the services segment hitting a $3.1 billion peak. Looking ahead to 2024, the company forecasts an adjusted EBIT margin between 6.5% and 7.5% and expects a free cash flow of $220 million or better. As the company navigates supply chain uncertainties, it commits to regular updates on its financial outlook.

Revenue Guidance Achieved and a Steady Financial Path Forecasted

Closing on a high note, the company achieved the lower end of its revenue guidance range of $5.2 billion to $5.7 billion for 2023, solidifying its financial prowess despite logistical headwinds. With a forward-looking perspective, the company provides a financial roadmap for 2024, emphasizing its commitment to deliver robust results amid ongoing supply chain constraints .

Earnings Call Transcript

Earnings Call Transcript
2023-Q4

from 0
G
Guilherme Paiva
executive

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Guilherme Paiva, and I'm the Head of Investor Relations for Embraer. I want to welcome you to the fourth quarter of 2023 and full year earnings conference call. Thank you for standing by.

The numbers in this presentation contain non-GAAP financial information to facilitate investors to reconcile Eve's financial information in GAAP standards to Embraer's IFRS. We remind you that Eve's results were previously discussed at Eve's conference call. It is important to mention that all numbers are presented in U.S. dollars as it is our functional currency.

This conference call may include statements about future events based on Embraer's expectations and financial market trends. Such statements are subject to uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied in this conference call. Except in accordance with applicable rules, the company assumes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements. For detailed financial information, the company encourages reviewing publications filed by the company with the Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários or CVM.

[Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. Participants on today's conference call are Francisco Gomes Neto, President and CEO of Embraer; and Antonio Carlos Garcia, our CFO.

It is my pleasure to now turn the conference call to our CEO, Francisco Gomes. Please go ahead, Francisco.

F
Francisco Neto
executive

Good morning and good afternoon to all. Thank you, and welcome to Embraer's Q4 2023 Results Conference Call.

In 2023, our commercial activity intensified in all business units with solid demand in the company's main markets. We also had a great start in 2024 with an important order from American Airlines that has driven our Commercial Aviation book-to-bill ratio above 1:1 for the year already in Q1.

Last year, supply chain delays negatively impacted our business. However, we posted double-digit growth in aircraft deliveries, services and revenues. The strong increase in sales helped the company's backlog to surpass pre-pandemic levels as it reached $18.7 billion, the highest number recorded in the last 6 years. And I am confident to say there is still much more upside to be captured in the near future for all business units.

On the financial side, we also experienced great results. We registered a 30% increase in adjusted EBIT year-over-year, and we generated more than $300 million in free cash flow in 2023, above our guidance. I'm pleased and proud to share that Embraer is back to investment-grade rating. All these results are a consequence of the execution discipline the company is focused on.

On Eve, we reached important milestones in 2023, like the first prototype assembly. The progress made so far makes us even more confident that Eve is on track to develop the foundations for the global Urban Air Mobility market. Last but not least, safety and quality are priorities in our strategy and are ever present in our culture.

I will present now the operational results of our business units in the next slides. In Commercial Aviation, revenues increased an impressive 20% year-over-year to $1.85 billion because of higher deliveries and product mix. The business unit registered a book-to-bill in excess of 1:1.1. The highlight was the E2 family whose deliveries more than doubled from 19 aircraft in 2022 to 39 in 2023.

In addition, in Q4, Porter Airlines added a firm order of 25 Embraer E195-E2. Commercial Aviation delivered 64 aircraft in 2023, but registered a positive 1.1% adjusted EBIT margin without services or basically the same margin as in 2022. The adjusted margin in Q4 reached 4.6% compared to 4.1% quarter-over-quarter.

Executive Aviation registered a book-to-bill in excess of 1:1.3 with a strong profitable backlog of $4.3 billion or 11% growth year-over-year. On deliveries, the business unit posted the largest volume in 7 years at 115 jets or 13% more than in 2022. The Phenom 300 was again the world's best-selling light jet now for 12 consecutive years and the most delivered twin-engine jet for the fourth consecutive year. Executive Aviation presented a 9% adjusted EBIT margin in 2023 versus 12.2% in 2022, a consequence of product mix and onetime tax benefits. The Q4 adjusted margin ended at 15.7% compared to 19.3% year-over-year.

In Defense & Security, revenues reached a significant increase to $515 million or 25% higher year-over-year, driven by higher C-390 volumes. In 2023, South Korea was in the spotlight with the victory of the C-390 in the public tender becoming the first customer in Asia. Embraer also firmed 2 important MoU contracts: 1 with Mahindra in India and 1 with SAMI in Saudi Arabia to become partners in the C-390 sales campaigns. The business unit presented a 5.5% adjusted EBIT margin in 2023 versus 2.4% in 2022. In Q4 2023, the adjusted margin ended at 2.8% compared to 5.2% quarter-over-quarter due to product mix and baseline contract adjustments.

If we move to Services & Support, in 2023, the business unit experienced solid growth momentum. We announced 3 new MROs dedicated to executive jets in the U.S. The expansion doubled our maintenance capacity in the country, and it should continue to support the growth of our customer base. The business unit's backlog ended 2023 with $3.1 billion, a $400 million growth year-over-year, the highest level on record, reinforcing Services' growth as one of the main drivers of growth over the next years.

We recorded a consistent double-digit adjusted EBIT margin throughout the year, finishing at 15.2% in 2023 versus 12% in 2022. In Q4, we had a 16.7% adjusted margin compared to 5.7% in the same period of the previous year mainly because of sales, bad debt provisions.

On Eve, the company had several significant achievements like the selection of important suppliers and the start of assembling of its first full-scale prototype. Eve also conducted a successful test of its Urban Air Traffic Management software in the U.K. On the financial side, the company consumed less cash than expected in 2023. The next 12 months will be important for Eve. The company expects to perform the first test flight of its full-scale prototype and plans to start preparing its manufacturing facility for production.

I will now hand it over to Antonio, our CFO, to give you further details on the financial results, and I will be back with closing remarks.

A
Antonio Garcia
executive

Thank you, Francisco, and good morning and good afternoon to everyone. I'm glad and proud to share with you our 2023 achievements, driven by the continuous focus on business efficiency and innovation. We also reached our 2023 guidance for all financial indicators, net revenue, adjusted EBIT and EBITDA and free cash flow, despite a miss in Commercial and the Executive Aviation aircraft deliveries because of supply chain constraints.

Moving to Slide #9. On deliveries, Executive Aviation delivered 49 business jets in Q4 and a total of 115 aircraft in 2023. The light jet segment was 12% higher year-over-year and reached the largest volume for the company in the past 7 years. Additionally, medium jets registered a 14% annual growth. Meanwhile, Commercial Aviation delivered 25 aircraft in Q4 and a total of 64 jets in 2023 for 12% year-over-year growth.

In 2023, Embraer supplied 181 aircraft, including 2 military C-390 jets. The total represents an increase of 13% when compared to the 160 jets in 2022. This shows an improvement in the supply chain situation year-over-year, but we continued to face some delays which have negatively impacted our operational results and delivery guidance. The company continues working to mitigate the seasonality in production and deliveries over the coming quarters.

Moving to Slide 10. The company's backlog rose by $1.2 billion in 2023, a 7% increase year-over-year and reached a total of $18.7 billion, the highest number recorded since first quarter 2018. Executive Aviation ended 2023 with a resilient $4.3 billion backlog or a $400 million or 10% growth year-over-year.

The backlog for Defense & Security increased $100 million or 4% year-over-year with the victory of the C-390 Millennium in South Korea standard. It is also important to highlight the aircraft was selected by the third -- 3 NATO countries. And this negotiation for 11 aircraft have not yet been incorporated into our backlog, which represents a significant upside potential for the upcoming quarters.

In Commercial Aviation, the business unit's backlog reached 298 aircraft in Q4 for a $8.8 billion total or $200 million or 2% growth year-over-year. And it does not consider yet the [ 9 E175-E1 ] units sold to American Airlines in the first quarter of 2024.

The Services & Support backlog have reached another historical record at $3.1 billion with a $500 million or 19% growth year-over-year. Our top line reached almost $2 billion in Q4 and raised the yearly total to $5.3 billion for a 16% growth rate year-over-year. Therefore, I'm happy to share that we met the low end of our $5.2 billion to $5.7 billion guidance range for revenues.

Looking at the right chart, in 2023, Commercial Aviation represented more than 35% of the revenue; Executive and Services & Support close to 27% each; and Defense, around 10%.

Slide 11. The fourth quarter had an excellent performance in terms of adjusted EBITDA with $253 million and margins of 12.8%. Meanwhile, in 2023, we ended with a $562 million total and 10.7% margin, meeting guidance for the year, driven by volumes, enterprise and tax efficiencies.

Slide 12. In Q4 '23, adjusted EBIT was $182 million, and adjusted EBIT margin was 9.2%. Therefore, for 2023, adjusted EBIT reached $350 million, and our adjusted EBIT margin was 6.6%, in line with guidance. This represented a $80 million increase year-over-year because of higher volumes across all business units and other operational income.

Consequently, we reported EBIT for the year, which includes M&A results, totaled $340 million for a 6% mark. Looking at the right chart, Executive Aviation and Services & Support were responsible for almost 90% of EBIT generated during the year, driven by higher volumes and double-digit margins. Meanwhile, Defense & Security represented 7%; and Commercial Aviation, 5%.

Slide 13. In Q4, if we exclude Eve, we had an adjusted free cash flow generation of $684 million or $100 million higher year-over-year. For 2023, we achieved $318 million compared to $540 million year-over-year because of investment and nonrecurring items. We surpassed the guidance of $150 million or more because of the improvement in working capital.

If we move to investments, in Q4, $54 million were allocated to research and development and $60 million to CapEx for a $114 million total invested compared to $94 million in Q4 '22, if we exclude Eve. Meanwhile, in 2023, the company invested a total of $326 million, of which $194 million were invested in research and development and $132 million in CapEx, if we exclude Eve, or $82 million higher year-over-year.

We should highlight capital allocation continues to be focused on segments with higher returns with projects such as expansion of our production capacity in Executive Aviation and Services & Support. About Eve, I would like to remind you that the company reached the necessary milestones to begin the capitalization of product development costs based on IFRS rules in Q3.

I would like to finish this slide talking about this important metric for the company, return on invested capital, ROIC. The momentum of -- in our V-shape recoveries continue. Our ROIC reached 8.8% in 2023, more than 200 basis points higher than 2022 and similar to our cost of capital. Looking forward, our expectation is to increase ROIC to the lower teens level. Slide 14. Embraer posted $78 million in adjusted net income in Q4 for a 3.9% adjusted margin or an 80%-plus sequential increase. Meanwhile, we ended the year with $79 million in the adjusted net income for an adjusted 1.5% margin. Consequently, reported net income for the year, which includes deferred tax income, totaled $164 million for a 3.1% margin.

Slide 15. If we move now to our liability management plan, in 2023, we reduced our gross debt without Eve by $317 million year-over-year. The net debt declined to $781 million in 2023 [ from $1 billion ] in 2022. Consequently, we are happy to report a significant reduction in our leverage ratio. In the top-right corner, you can see we ended 2023 with a 1.4x net debt without Eve to adjusted EBITDA ratio or 0.9x below the 2.3x observed in 2022.

Furthermore, we increased the average debt maturity to 4.6 years compared to 3.4 years year-over-year, which has left Embraer to a very comfortable position or a cash of almost $2.4 billion with Eve allowed us to cover all obligations beyond 2030.

Last quarter, we mentioned we were taking all necessary steps to recover our investment-grade status. Today, I'm very pleased and proud to share that Standard & Poor's raised Embraer to investment-grade rating and Moody's to only 1 notch below investment grade. At least Fitch revised the company's outlook to positive.

Slide 16, and never forget to mention one important thing, it's our 2024 guidance. We forecast Commercial Aviation should deliver between 72 to 80 aircraft, for an increase of 18% year-over-year using the midpoint of the range if we consider ongoing supply chain constraints. For Executive Aviation, we forecast 125 to 135 jets, an increase of 13% year-over-year based on the midpoint of the range.

If we move to financials, we estimate top line to settle between $6 billion to $6.4 billion, with the midpoint of the range 18% higher than what we generated in 2023. In addition, in order to simplify the process, we are just giving guidance for the adjusted EBIT margin. We forecast this indicator between 6.5% and 7.5% for the year, which would imply $434 million at the midpoint of the range. Finally, if you move to free cash flow, we estimate $220 million or better for the year. We will update or reiterate our guidance quarterly as the year goes by.

With that, I conclude my presentation and hand it back to Francisco for his final remarks. Thank you very much.

F
Francisco Neto
executive

Thank you, Antonio. I'm proud to say 2023 was a remarkable year for Embraer. It represented the start of a new cycle for the company, a phase focused on sustainable growth to capture our full potential. The continuous focus on business efficiency and innovation as well as stronger sales efforts were and will be fundamental to achieve the expressive results in 2023, 2024 and years ahead.

In 2024, we will celebrate Embraer's 55th anniversary in a very good shape. We remain very positive about our strategy to grow and generate value for our customers, shareholders and society through strategic partnerships, business efficiency, innovation and ESG. With all that said, I am extremely confident about our 2024 guidance and the brilliant future Embraer has.

I would like to thank you all again for your interest and confidence in our company and end with our company motto: safety first and quality always in everything we do.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Marcelo Motta with JPMorgan.

M
Marcelo Motta
analyst

It is regarding capital structure. When we look at the guidance for 2024, the expected or, let's say, the implied EBITDA and the free cash flow generation, we are talking about a net debt to EBITDA that will potentially be below 1x, right? So what is, let's say, the level of leverage that the company should [ aim for ] and operate? Does it mean that you're targeting for a 0 leverage? Or could we see dividends, buybacks or some type of a distribution or investment? So that is the question.

A
Antonio Garcia
executive

Marcelo, thanks for the question. To be honest, everything below 2x, we are comfortable. The way we are doing it right now is going to be below 1, which implies that assuming that you're going to exhaust our accumulated profit, we should be able to resume dividend payouts in 2025 onwards. That's the first part.

And the other part, we are going to evaluate additional demand for the business units who have a better growth like Executive and Services & Support, if you have additional needs for investment. At least that's more or less where we are today. But if everything below 2x, we are comfortable to work with, and we need to think how we are going to move forward for the years to come how to use this money.

Operator

The next question comes from Victor Mizusaki with Bradesco BBI.

V
Victor Mizusaki
analyst

Congrats for the results. I have just a quick question here. Think about 2024 and what happened in the fourth quarter, when we take a look on cash flow, Embraer received a lot of PDPs. And I think that in this case, you do not have any impact from these new order from American Airlines. So my question is, if it would make sense to assume [ pre-down ] payments or Embraer will receive PDPs in the first quarter or in the second quarter of this year?

A
Antonio Garcia
executive

Thank you, Victor, for your question. Antonio speaking here. Victor, you know more or less the dynamic of our cash flow. We become a positive last year just in Q4. There's a lot of moving parts throughout the year. I would say it's too early to say that we are going to be better. Traditionally, when you -- in our free cash flow guidance, we always -- we were able, in the last 3 years, to do better, but for us, it's too early to say because we do have also other topics ongoing right now.

We continue to grow in 2025. And in some of our companies, our factories are producing parts already for 2025 deliveries. And assuming that the volatility we have with the advanced payments, we may see a different behavior. And you all know Q1 is going to be better, but not in the way we should see. That's why I would say, what we agree internally here, as soon we have a more visibility in regards to the free cash flow, we are going to adopt the guidance and do not wait for the Q4 closing. In summary, what I can tell you right now, I would say the free cash flow at least can be higher -- can be seen as a, I would say, conservative.

Operator

The next question comes from Gabriel Rezende with Itaú BBA.

G
Gabriel Rezende
analyst

Just a quick one regarding the supply chain risks. We saw your comments on Brazil Journal's interview -- Francisco's interview on Brazil Journal mentioning that supply chain issues somewhat improved in 2023 versus 2022. I was just wondering how much of these potential issues regarding the supply chain capped your delivery guidance for 2024. So these 80 aircraft in the Commercial division, could it be higher if were not for the supply chain issues? And what is the risk that you're seeing for our guidance right now regarding this particular variable?

F
Francisco Neto
executive

Thank you, Gabriel, Francisco speaking. Thank you for your question. Well, starting for the last part, yes, both deliveries in the Executive and Commercial could be higher if we had more parts from the market. But on the other hand, we saw improvements in 2023 in the supply chain in general. And we believe we will see further improvements, further improvements in 2024.

But we still have some bottlenecks, I mean, important components that are limiting our production. We actually -- we made our plan based on the conservative commitments from our suppliers. But even then, we are seeing already some delays in the beginning of the year that are [ big some ] challenges in our production flow. But anyway, we are optimistic that the numbers we put in our guidance will be achieved this year in terms of production.

Operator

The next question comes from Myles Walton with Wolfe.

M
Myles Walton
analyst

Antonio, you mentioned CapEx potential investments as a source, an area in Executive and in Services. And the Services piece, I think I can understand what the expansion of the fleet and capture there. Can you talk about the areas of expansion in Executive from a CapEx perspective? Is it purely capacity on the larger aircraft? Is it anticipation of something else to come and maybe put a quantification around it?

A
Antonio Garcia
executive

Myles, thanks for your question. In regards to CapEx for Executive Aviation, we are since 1.5 years doing some adaptation or production capacity in order to be more efficient and also to support the growth. And we are continuing to grow with the book-to-bill 1 to -- 1.3:1, what we did already in 2023. Therefore, it's just painting both completions in the order to be more lean and [ nobody to many travel work ] for Executive and also to adjust for the capacity.

On the MRO side or in the Services side, it's more the expansion of our MRO, I would say, organic growth that we are fostering right now. And on top of it, for our new products, it's not there yet any type of decision, decision to be made if 2025. Maybe Francisco could comment on the last one.

F
Francisco Neto
executive

Well, thank you very much, Antonio. Just to complement Antonio's answer, in terms of new products, we are investing on innovation. We are investing on 7 innovation verticals in order to close the technology gaps to be ready to go for a new program in the next future. We also made, as we do all the time, in marketing studies, in product studies in order to be prepared for next steps for Embraer.

For now, we have a very young and competitive portfolio of products developed in the less than 10 years, and we are in a good moment. We want to sell those products and improve our financial performance. So that's what we're doing. But again, we are investing -- we have a good investment in new technologies called innovation verticals.

Operator

The next question is coming from a telephone number with the end of 1339. We ask for you to introduce yourself before asking the question.

C
Cai Von Rumohr
analyst

Cai von Rumohr. So in your guide, what is the relative mix within Commercial between E1s and E2s and deliveries for '24 and also in bizjets between lights and mediums? And also, if you think about most bizjet makers make more money on the larger jet and it looks like yours is reversed. Is there any opportunity for the profitability of the medium bizjets to improve?

A
Antonio Garcia
executive

Cai, Antonio speaking. Thanks for your question. It's always very nice. We -- for the Commercial jets for 2024, we are targeting 60% E2 and 40% E1 on the mix, okay? And for the Executive Aviation, it's more or less light jets around 55% and 45% to midsized jets.

I would say we are seeing a margin expansion for Executive Aviation, but percentage-wise, our margin is much better than in -- light jets than midsized jets. However, where we are going much more is in the midsized jets. That's why I would say we should be able to get some margin improvement, but not as the same we have in the light jet. For the midsized jet, we do have more competition. That's why, I would say, in order to keep our guidance remark, we are being a little bit conservative. I would say, same margin, but with much more dollars to come with the expansion production for the midsized jets. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Jordan Lyonnais with Bank of America.

J
Jordan Lyonnais
analyst

Could you talk a little bit more about the read-through on the United and the American orders for the 175s? Should we look at this as a new replacement opportunity for RJs?

F
Francisco Neto
executive

Yes, sure. So I mean this new order shows to us that the market of regional jets in the U.S. is recovering. I mean although the pilot shortage situation is not resolved, the market is recovering, and this was the first important movement. And this will be very important for us to make a health -- to have a healthy mix of aircraft between E1s and E2s in the following years, so as E1s continue to be the workhorse in the regional aviation in the U.S.

A
Antonio Garcia
executive

Francisco, just to complement, the United issue, it was just a repositioning 20 units to Mesa with just -- it does not mean a new backlog. But for sure, we do have interest from the other players in position for the E1. Even that our big competitors were saying that the regional market is dead, but as you can see, it's not as dead; it's more alive that we all believe. And the orders, they are just confirming what we were saying in the last years.

Operator

The next question comes from Jay Singh with Citi.

J
Jay Singh
analyst

It's Jay from Stephen Trent's team. My first question is, do you guys have any updates on the E2 sales campaign in and out of the U.S.?

F
Francisco Neto
executive

Well, we cannot disclosure about sales campaigns. But what I can tell you that, yes, we are working, we are in conversations with potential customers of E2s in the U.S.

J
Jay Singh
analyst

All right. Awesome. And my second question is regarding Eve, what are your thoughts on the certification process, really considering that the FAA is probably under a little bit of pressure right now regarding recent commercial airlines incidents? Just any color on that would be great.

A
Antonio Garcia
executive

You asked about the Eve certification, is that right?

J
Jay Singh
analyst

That's right.

A
Antonio Garcia
executive

Okay. We are having an important progress on Eve development. I mean the key suppliers already did finance for the product. We are progressing well in the assembling of the first prototype, the [ POF 2 ], scale 1:1 that we expect to fly in the end of this year, beginning of next year. So we are committed for the entry into service of the Eve -- our eVTOL to the end of 2026.

Operator

The next question comes from [ Fernanda Hedya ].

U
Unknown Analyst

A quick one from my side. Could you please provide us an update on the arbitrage process with Boeing?

F
Francisco Neto
executive

Well, we expect a resolution in the first half of this year.

U
Unknown Analyst

Perfect. And just a follow-up. Looking at your statement, we can reach close to $300 million that you're already reporting in expenses for carve-in and carve-out. Should the discussion be close to this number? I know you could not give any guidance on this, but at least if we look at your financial statement, we can see close to $300 million.

A
Antonio Garcia
executive

Fernanda, this is Antonio speaking. It would be great if they paid the [ sum cost ] we have, but it's not in our hands to take the decision. And if you ask me personally, I would be seeing more than that, but it's not -- the decision is not in our hands, and we don't know if we're going to win or lose. That's why it's difficult to give you any type of forecast.

F
Francisco Neto
executive

Exactly. And just to complement, and we are not counting on that money in any of our projections, Fernanda.

Operator

Our next question is from the chat. Please hold while we get the question. The next question is from Lucas Barbosa. Congratulations for the result. My question is regarding business jets. How are you seeing the entrance of new orders today? For new orders, is there any niche market that the company is focusing more on such as corporate flight departments and fractionals? And any visibility of how full the backlog of the competition is looking like?

F
Francisco Neto
executive

Well, thank you for the question, Lucas. I mean we are very happy with the performance of our sales, performance of our business jets. I mean as we mentioned in the opening, I mean our backlog today is at $4.3 billion. The book-to-bill, we ended the year at 1.3:1, even with high deliveries in the Q4. And I think we have a healthy mix in our sales, I mean, 1/3, 1/3, 1/3, more or less, I mean, 1/3 for corporate flight departments, 1/3 for fractionals, 1/3 for individuals in this.

And we have a great portfolio of products, I mean, just launched the Phenom 100EX and the Praetors that are gaining more and more the preference of the customers. So we are really happy and comfortable with the sales of our business jets, and we are confident we have another -- we will have another great year of sales in that business unit.

Operator

The next question comes from Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

G
Gabrielle Knafelman
analyst

This is Gaby on for Kristine. So I was just wondering if you could provide some color on how the GTF MRO at OGMA is progressing? And if you can just give an idea of how much revenue and margin will be in 2024?

F
Francisco Neto
executive

Can you please repeat the questions -- the question?

G
Gabrielle Knafelman
analyst

Yes. So I was wondering if you can provide some color on how the GTF MRO at OGMA is progressing. And if you can also provide color on how much revenue OGMA -- the GTF MRO at OGMA will provide in 2024 as well as any color on margins would be great.

F
Francisco Neto
executive

I will start, then Antonio can help me to complement. Now it's clear. Well, GTF program is moving very well. I mean the first delivery is planned for April or into following the program. That program has -- will be very important for the OGMA's and Embraer's growth. The program will help us to more than double OGMA's revenue in the next 2 years, I would say. And this will be a very, very important factor of growth for OGMA and for Embraer.

Antonio, would you like to add something about the margin as well?

A
Antonio Garcia
executive

Yes. Just in regards to the revenue side, we are more or less forecasting around $40 million additional revenue for this year on the GTF. But assuming that we are in the ramp-up, we are not foreseeing any type of positive margin this year. It's even like a negative impact because we are starting right now. But I would say in the long term, we do see a higher single-digit margin for this business.

Operator

The next question comes from Myles Walton with Wolfe.

M
Myles Walton
analyst

Antonio, just another quick one, if I could. From a free cash flow conversion of EBITDA, I think 50%, 5-0 percent has been sort of your target level. And obviously, you're guiding below that in 2024. I realize you said it was conservative to start, but is 5-0 percent still the right level to think about over the medium term?

A
Antonio Garcia
executive

Yes, Myles, thank you for the question. You are totally right, that is more or less what we are targeting internally, minimum of 50% of EBITDA. What we are facing the backlog is not a surprise maybe for you is the volatility that we are facing throughout the year. That's why we are guiding doing $220 million plus because it's really hard. For example, last year, we got a big amount of money in the last week of the year. That's why we preferred to be conservative. But internally, we are targeting 50% of EBITDA. Even in our long-term planning, that's the minimum basis that we are looking for.

M
Myles Walton
analyst

Okay. One quick one, if I could. Francisco, the E2 ETOPS certification, was that preventing you from competing in any competitions? And does that open up new competitions that you see in the near term?

F
Francisco Neto
executive

You mean the E2 certification?

M
Myles Walton
analyst

The ETOPS certification for Europe for the E2.

F
Francisco Neto
executive

No, no, I think we are moving well with the ETOPS certification. And this way will help us actually to improve the competitiveness of our E2s. And to be more successful in the sales campaign, we are working on not only on Europe, but as well as in other regions.

Operator

Thank you all very much. This concludes today's question-and-answer session. That does conclude Embraer's conference for today. Thank you very much for your participation, and have a good day.