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Intrinsic Value is all-important and is the only logical way to evaluate the relative attractiveness of investments and businesses.
Arda, please go ahead.
Thank you, Michael. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I would like to welcome you to the Dogus Otomotiv Third Quarter 2022 Conference Call Results on 10 of November 2022. [Operator Instructions] The format of the call will be a presentation by the management team followed by a question-and-answer session. So without further delay, I would like to pass the line to Mr. Kerem Talih, CFO of Dogus Otomotiv.
Thank you, Arda. With my best greetings to all the participants and also the management team of Dogus Otomotiv, this time, we have started to welcome the audience with the visuals of our 1 or 2 fastest models of Volkswagen Group. As you can see in the screen, there is a Porsche GT3 RS, which is a very fancy and dynamic sports car, that we believe this sports car, this dynamic car is also representing the dynamic outputs of Dogus Otomotiv both from operations and also financial perspective at the end of third quarter of this year. Being in the last phase of the year, almost less than 2 months to end up 2022, we are happy to be able to end up with this successful and sustainable financial results, within which our share price is also representing this boost in its profitability and premium levels as well. So as it has always been the case, I will be just going through some market information and sales performance of Dogus Otomotiv, and I will provide you some insights relating to the financial output of Dogus Otomotiv. I will try to keep as short as possible for you to be able to put your questions if you have any. So heading into September market performance, the level of the total Dogus Otomotiv market has reached to a level of 575,000 units (sic) [ 541,000 units ] which is [ down 6% ] than the previous year. And coming to Volkswagen Group in Turkey, our performance has just reached to -- I'm sorry, the market has just reached to 541,000 units. And our performance has just touched to almost 75,000 units, which is 28% less than the previous year. As we were always been -- noting in our previous calls or in our individual speeches as well, the shortage of supply is still on the tables, mainly stemming from chip crisis, the logistics and spare parts unavailability, which has also arised due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and also global recession complications are still influencing the global automotive sector. And in Turkey, we still do not be able to provide the demanded or required level of vehicles, at least in the first 3 quarters of the year. As a glance of the market share allocation, our market share at the total is 14%, which is 4% than the previous year. And in the light commercial, in the consolidated phase, we are just following Tofas and Renault Group, entering at the third position in the markets. In passenger car segment, which has decreased 8% on a yearly basis, our, of course, Volkswagen passenger cars are the leading one, which is followed by SEAT and Skoda and Audi and Porsche, respectively. And in the light commercial vehicle market, we are ranked at 6th level in terms of market share; and Ford, Tofas and Stellantis Group are the major players. But at this point, I must inform you that in the light commercial vehicle segment, Volkswagen Group has 4 models, namely: Amarok, Crafter, Caddy and Transporter, knowing that the new Amarok will be in the market at the end of the first quarter of next year. And since there are some supply obstacles in Crafter model, the reason why we are a bit lower in the market share in this segment is we are just trying to combat in competition only with Transporter and Caddy. So 2 main models are missing. That's why we are -- we have lost some market share. But effective from the beginning of the second quarter of next year, we are planning to close this gap as fast as we can do so. So at the end of September, our total sales performance has just reached 75,000 units, as I have said, and Volkswagen passenger cars are the leading model, as I have said so. Knowing that October market information has also been revealed, we also would like to share this information with you. The size of the market has exceeded 600,000 units, and Volkswagen Group's sales performance has almost touched 85,000 units, which is 23% lower than the previous year. Knowing that the presentation has been revealed beforehand, I'm not going to the details on segment basis. Please put your questions at the end of the session, if you have any. And at the end of the first 10 months of the year, as you can see, you can see the brand basis allocation. And frankly speaking, I must also note the good performance of Skoda, which is followed by Audi. But again, as always, passenger car is the leading brand within our composition. The market share at the end of November -- sorry, at the end of October, has not changed, which is still at 14%, and we are again ranked at the third level in terms of market share allocation. Coming to the financial performance -- by the way, the vehicle you see in the screen is CUPRA Formentor, if I'm not wrong, the new model, which has been designed -- or the new brand which has been designed under the umbrella of SEAT Group, that we are also continuing our new showroom renovations and investments, respectively, within our old dealer network. Coming to the financial performance. As you can see, the turnover has exceeded TRY 30 billion, which is almost 70% higher than the year. And EBITDA and net profit is really in terms of -- both in terms of Turkish lira and also both in terms of U.S. dollar has just brought the historical, the highest profitability levels. We are really very happy to be able to acquire such profitable and successful results. But the important point here is that considering that the total assets -- sorry, the net profit has increased more than 300% to a level of TRY 5.5 billion, our total assets has increased only 83% -- sorry, 68% which is just stemming from the high turnover of our working capital, which is also one of the historically the highest levels, which is like less than 2 months because as we have always been telling so, the vehicles are delivered almost to ready customs, which has been preordered and the advance payment has already been granted by the customers. And respectively, as you can see, the working capital of the company has just increased to a level of TRY 10.1 billion. Coming to margins, which is the fancy part as well. Our gross profit margin, which is a consolidation of vehicle sales and also spare parts, has reached to a level of 22.1%. Considering that revenue has also expanded, the OpEx over sales is even lower than the performance of the previous year. I'm not going to specifically compare with 2022 and 2021, knowing that they have different stories mainly stemming from COVID pressures. They were different years, I must say. And EBITDA margin and EBIT margin is 18.8% and 19.5% (sic) [ 19.5% and 18.8% ]. And historically, at the highest level, our net profit margin has just touched to a level of 17.8%, which is stemming from our disciplined and controlled policy in our operational expenditures and also FX loss free financial expenditures management. Knowing that, just to remind, our borrowing scheme is almost more than 90% is computed by fixed interest rate Turkish lira denominated working capital loans. Having a glance at the income statement, beyond expectations at the third quarter of this year, we have acquired a profit of TRY 2.7 billion, which is almost TRY 1 billion higher than the performance of the second quarter. And as compared to previous year's quarter, it is almost 7x more than it. As a specific or onetime effect-related influence of this quarter, I must say that, as you can see, our tax expenditures in this period has just turned to be a positive figure instead of a negative figure. Because as you may all know or just to remind, in the tax legislation, there has been a new incentive to companies, which is the revaluation of the fixed asset of the company, which enables us to increase our depreciation expense. And also by the end, which serves for as a tax advantage. So we have utilized this incentive, which has created some deferred tax assets. That is why our taxation expenditures has just turned out to be positive, and the influence coming from this deferred tax is around TRY 800 million relating to the performance of third quarter. On a cumulative -- when we look at the cumulative figures at -- with the sales performance of more than 61,000 units, our revenue is more than TRY 30 billion. Our income from investing activities is almost 300% than the previous year and income from associates have also doubled its performance. But our income -- financial expenditures has only expanded 30% to a level of TRY 550 million. Just because we have deleveraged the balance sheet and we are just, as I have said, advantaging -- taking the advantage out of our Turkish lira-based launch mainly. At this page, you can see the performances of associates. As you can see, Yüce Auto is really performing so successfully, and its contribution stemming from our 50% shares in Yüce Auto company has almost touched TRY 300 million. TÜVTÜRK is also performing well and which has slightly increased its performance as compared to previous year. And The vdf Servis, considering some liquidity issues and high competition in the consumer credit market -- consumer finance market, and because of some provisions, the profitability is slightly less than the previous year that we believe will be covering itself -- recovering in the following year, and the other figures are not so material within the size of this balance sheet. So then we have a look at the balance sheet. As I have said, the magnitudes of TRY 16.4 billion is mainly and mainly being computed by receivables, inventories and cash and cash equivalents, namely pure working capital and which is only financed by TRY 2.6 billion financing liabilities, within which our total bank liabilities, as you can see, compared to the year-end, has decreased more than TRY 400 million. We have slightly deleveraged the balance sheet and paid back some loans. But in terms of liquidity, I must note that Dogus Otomotiv is in a phase of, historically, the highest level of liquidity. We have almost 2x more liquidity than the total borrowings of the company based both of them are Turkish lira denominated. And under current market conditions, there is no risk that those bank loans can be renewed. And also, as to just remind, there has been several new legislations coming from Central Bank of Turkey and banking regulatory and supervisory agency, which constrains companies to hold some foreign currency-based deposits, so on and so forth. And we are all abiding by those rules. But either in the form of hardcore foreign currency or either in the form of foreign currency prevented deposits, namely cok para birimli mevduat in Turkish. We are just keeping enough of liquidity in both terms of hard currency in foreign currency or either in equivalence of that. Coming to financing costs. There is not -- I mean when you consider that the increase in the turnover and the increase in the total balance sheet size, our financing cost has only increased -- the net financing cost has only increased 30%. So the increase in the interest expense on borrowings has just reached a level of TRY 450 million, which is stemming from the average increase in the interest rates in the market. The rest of the figures are driving from the increase in the volume or it is stemming from the devaluation of Turkish lira against euro since we are paying the commissions of letter of currencies in terms of euro to Turkish and foreign banks. So having a glance at the financial performance. As you can see, our working capital has just reached TRY 10 billion, which is almost 60% than the previous year. And our net cash position is more than TRY 1 billion. And our receivable -- our turnovers both in terms of receivables and inventory and payable has just increased, which is stemming from market reality because of the level of demand or the financing capabilities of customers are definitely quite a bit lower than the previous year. That has been -- as you can see in the screen, those are the recent material disclosures we have made in the third quarter. And one of the recent ones that we have made yesterday afternoon is the advanced dividend distribution of TRY 900 million out of the profit -- statutory profit of the -- at the end of the cumulative third quarter of the year, which is in line with the liquidity plans of our shareholders. And we just would like to sustain our -- sustainable -- support our sustainable dividend policy, respectively, with this decision. Arda, would you like to add some points relating to sustainability, please?
Yes, Kerem. Thank you very much. As you all follow, corporate governance and corporate sustainability play a very important role in our operations and strategy. Within the scope of corporate governance, last year, we became the company with the third highest corporate governance regime in Turkey, reached 97 points out of 100. We aim to continue the success in the future. In order to further develop our corporate governance structure, we have chosen an employee representative to represent the employees on the Board of Directors. Within the scope of corporate sustainability, we have significantly increased our corporate sustainability score. And we have completed our integrated reporting preparation. We will publish our 2022 annual report in integrated formats. In the last section, I would like to address the prominent points which relates to our sustainability activities. On the social side, we started to organize in-company compliance trainings. We aim to provide compliance trainings to all our employees and critical suppliers until the end of 2025. On the environmental side, we have made Zero Waste Certification application. Within the scope of this certification, we will be able to drive economic value from our wastes in the near future. And last of all, on the economic side, we were listed in the BIST Sustainability Index for the 8th time, and we were entered into BIST Sustainability Participation Index. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Arda. And at the last page, we just would like to update you relating to the expectations of this year and also maybe an insight of the year to come. Our total market size forecast is still around 800,000 units. And at the end of this year, without Skoda, we will be touching 80,000 units. And I think, together with Skoda, we would hopefully be reaching and exceeding a sales volume of more than 100,000 units. And I just would like to note that our total investment expenditures has been updated and increased considerably because we have relate -- some investment activities relating to the purchase of some test cars and also relating to some hardware investments in our IT department and some infrastructure investments both in terms of tangible assets and also intangible assets has just been planned to be made at the last 2 quarters of the year. In that respect, our total investment expenditures has just reached to a level of TRY 1.5 billion (sic) [ TRY 1.4 billion ] which also covers a recent finalized investment of solar energy panels that we have constructed at the top of our warehouse in Sekerpinar, which we have spent more than USD 2 million, but which will serve for us to be able to cover all of our electricity bills. And coming to the perception of next year, I mean this is -- as I have said, since we are in the last part of the year, we are expecting that the size of the market will again be around 775,000 units to 800,000 units. And we are in the planning phase that our sales performance would hopefully be a bit more than the performance of this year. So this is it at this stage from our side. So if you have any questions, please let me know. Thank you.
[Operator Instructions]
Might that be the first time that there is no questions since the presentation was so clear.
No, we do have a few questions lined up. The first question is from Mr. Aytunç Uz from Ata Yatirim.
And congratulations on the strong results. I have 4 questions, if it is possible. Can you share your views regarding TOGG? I mean I understand that they will be selling C-SUVs and other types of premium passenger cars, and it seems that state banks are going to support them by cheap loans. Do you think will they be an important competitor against your products maybe starting from 2024? This is my first question.
Yes. If you like, please, let us go one-by-one so that maybe I will not forget your questions when you come to fourth one. Relating to TOGG, I mean, as Turkish citizens, we are all really very happy, and we are really proud that our country is careful of manufacturing or, let me say, manufacturing of such an electrical vehicles. But for us to be able to make some detailed interpretations, we believe it is quite early because for -- their yearly manufacturing amount is quite low for the first year. And knowing that electrical vehicles market share in Turkey is less than 2% or even around 1%, so in that respect, for the initial years, of course, it would have some effect on competition. But without moving the price level of the car, it is difficult to make such an interpretation. Knowing that, for the moment, we only have -- I mean knowing that we are only speaking about electric vehicles, we only have 1 model right now, which is Porsche Taycan. But in a month or within this year, the launch of the e-tron model, EV model of Audi, will be made. And next year in the second half and 2024, new models of EV vehicles of electric -- Volkswagen and also Skoda will be presented in Turkey. In that respect, we are also doing our very best to be able to take -- share the market piece in this competitive environment of electrical vehicles.
Okay. As my second question, I see that net sales per vehicle -- price of the vehicle has been increasing in euro terms. And it reached -- it has reached quite high level compared to past. Do you think this trend will continue in the fourth quarter and 2023?
Yes. Here in the detail of this figure, two factors. One is the euro prices of the car. Second is the depreciation of Turkish lira is also influencing. The reason of the major increase is mainly coming from the devaluation of Turkish lira against euro, as you know, and that's why the average car price has increased tremendously. But knowing that in the year to come, minimum 3% to 5% new model's range price increases even in terms of euro, we'll be adding at the top of this price level, plus if Turkish lira is, again -- I mean if it devaluates more, then, of course, respectively the average sales prices will be increasing as long as the special consumption tax brackets and the regime and percentages is kept as the same.
Okay. And the third question, you have said that there is a tax income due to revaluation of fixed assets. Should we expect another tax income in the fourth quarter and maybe 2023? Or was this incentive for a quarter -- for 1 quarter?
No, it is on a yearly basis, and in statutory accounts based on value of [ car ]. In our tax ledgers -- I mean in our books based on our tax declarations, this revaluation will continue. But as you know, it is also planned that for year 2023, the inflation accounting is probable to be implemented. If inflation accounting is made, it will take place this revaluation application. But it is not -- I mean it's not specific for this third quarter. It has been calculated from the beginning of the year. And for the fourth quarter, we will have some additional deferred tax advantage out of it because the deferred tax is -- because the indexation of the last quarter of the year will be added up at the top of those figures.
Okay. And for the last question, how do you see the domestic light vehicle market in 2023? I mean I see that interest rates are going up. There is a recession fear in 2023, and there is also a microchip issue. Regarding 2023, is it smart to expect a decline in light vehicle sales -- domestic light vehicle sales compared to 2022?
Yes. For the moment, we are expecting that the size of the market will almost be the same, knowing that an important issue which definitely affects most of the economic decisions of individuals and also companies is the elections, which is in the middle of the year. But we foresee that the liquidity in the total market will be abundant or will be plenty in the first half of the year. And relating to credit facilities, as I was trying to explain in our previous sessions, the credit penetration has decreased to 20%. So most of the people in such an inflationary environment are just preferring to buy cars with the money in hand for them to be able to protect themselves against inflation. In that respect, we are not expecting downsize in the total market, and our sales performance is expected to be slightly higher than the performance of this year.
Our next question comes from Mr. Can Yurtcan from Wood & Co.
I have a couple of questions, if I may. And my first question is regarding your gross margin evolution. Could you please provide your views regarding the gross margin evolution in the fourth quarter of this year and the trajectory that we should envisage -- that you are envisaging for 2023? And my second question is regarding the new Volkswagen LCV, which is going to be jointly produced -- it's going to be produced by [indiscernible] and will be sold through the channels of Volkswagen Group, and you will be one of the distributors of that vehicle, especially in domestic market. And could you please provide some guidance or some color regarding the contribution of that new generation vehicle to your sales volume? My third question is regarding the net income contribution. You mentioned in your presentation, but it appears that it's somewhat sluggish. What are the major reasons behind it? And regarding Renault Group's net income contribution, which was stellar in the third quarter, especially when we look at the numbers based on the net income per unit basis, it was fantastic. And what are the major reasons behind it? And my last question is regarding your depreciation expenses in the other segment in the third quarter. In your segmental reporting disclosure, the depreciation charges related to the other segment in the third quarter was substantially higher compared to the previous quarters. What are the major reasons behind this? Is it something related to the restatement effect, which resulted in a tax income in your P&L? These are my questions. I know [indiscernible] but I would appreciate if you could share your thoughts.
I'll do my very best. You're welcome. Thanks for the -- both of them are really very valuable questions. Relating to the depreciation expense, I mean considering that the profitability of current year and abundant liquidity availabilities, we have, I mean, pulled back some investment plans from 2023 to the last 2 quarters of this year, as I have said so. In that respect, the level of -- the volume of capital expenditures in the third quarter is relatively higher than the previous years, both in terms of tangible assets, intangible assets, IT equipment and mainly test cars. In that respect, depreciation expense is a bit higher in other segments as well, which is -- which that we will also see a similar tendency in the last quarter of this year as well. Relating to the performance of Yüce Auto at the end of Skoda, namely at the end of this year, we are forecasting and targeting to a sales volume of 20,000 units. And for the next years to come, our target is a bit more aggressive, and which is targeting to a level of around 25,000 units. Because, I mean, the Skoda company itself really has a very strong trust and belief to Turkish market. And the new models of Skoda are really very nice, strong and which is -- that are really being preferred by the customers all around the world and also in Turkey. In that respect, with the -- I mean it has been -- I mean considering that buying a car for a Turkish person is regarded as an investment tool, as they are buying Volkswagen or Audi, they're also preferring to buy Skoda, respectively. Coming to gross profitability. I mean the performance -- the high performance of gross profit is still at the same level and even a bit higher than the third quarter of this year. So I have seen the figure of October and November is also going in parallel. In that respect, for the last 2 months of the year, we can say that average gross profitability is not going to be lower than the third quarter itself.
And also, just to add one note, my friend, Damla, has just sent me a note relating to the increase in the depreciation expense is also stemming from this revaluation of statutory assets of this tax incentive, I must note. Coming to this new -- I mean relating to light commercial vehicles in our Crafter model, which is going to be manufactured in 4 plants in Turkey. I mean, of course, being -- this model to be manufactured in Turkey will have some manufacturing and some -- there might be some cost advantages. But this is an advantage to the manufacturer, namely Volkswagen Group itself. I mean they have a pricing strategy for all around the world. And the average sale prices of these vehicles is expected to be around the current levels. In that respect, we are forecasting that we will be able to acquire more units as the product will be manufactured in Turkey. Maybe at this point, I also would like to make a little bit correction. You have said that we will be one of the distributors of the product in Turkey, but Dogus Otomotiv is the sole and only and the only official distributor of all Volkswagen Group in Turkey in that respect. Only Dogus Otomotiv and his official dealers will be selling this product. For instance, just to avoid a misunderstanding, this product will be sell -- will be sold by Porsche dealers, but it will be Ford branded and some features of the vehicle will not be the same. As a recent example, I also can name the new Amarok, which will be in Turkey in April 2023, which is also manufactured together with Ford. But when you compare these 2 vehicles, they are totally different models, I can say, just as an example.
[indiscernible] you are the exclusive dealer distributor of Volkswagen. My other question is regarding the TÜVTÜRK's net internal contribution. It grew by 22% in the first 9 months of the year. It was somewhat flat, especially when we compared the fee increase and the capture rate and the other factors. I mean looking a bit in detail, I should -- I would be expecting higher net income contribution from TÜVTÜRK given the fact that the -- considering the business will have an effect. I mean higher number of vehicles to be inspected. Could you please elaborate on this as well?
They're closing this gap. And at the end of the year, we think that this gap will be disappearing. But -- I mean it is -- I mean it is up to customers whether to go to the service of your car or not, also, which is the same for vehicle inspection. But -- I mean in case of heavy conditions of pandemic, I mean just as a reference that we are comparing the performance of last year and this year, in times of pandemic conditions, people were more cautious on bringing their cars to after-sale services and vehicle inspections. But since the life is somehow normalized, then they have more time to do other things. That is why, just as a social information, I am just sharing this with you. But at the end of the year, we believe this gets to be compensated.
Our next question comes from Mr. Cemal Demirtas from Ata Invest. [Operator Instructions] We'll come back to you shortly. In the meantime, we will take a question from Mr. [indiscernible] from Global Securities.
It's from our executives by the way. I would like to congratulate you for the successful results. And I apologize if it is asked earlier, in case I missed it. In Q3 of '19, [ I came to notice some of the ] foreign audit. And I remember that day, you were told that profitability is the most important things for us from now on. This time, I would like to ask from an analyst perspective, yes, the margins are at very high levels. And I would like to ask if this is sustainable or what kind of margins should we expect in the coming quarters?
Thank you very much. Maybe to be able to more precise and to avoid any misunderstanding, in my speeches, I am always trying to be very careful. And in a way that -- I mean fully the profitability itself stand-alone, of course, is definitely an important strategic KPI for a company. But -- I mean the sustainability of it and also our market share and our sales performance, together with, I mean, customer satisfaction and so on and so forth, this is a huge [ photograph ] and there are no determinants of it. But only stand-alone profitability is not the #1 profit target of Dogus Otomotiv. It cannot be said so. If there had been such a misunderstanding coming from previous speeches, I just would like to make a correction on that. But relating to your question and relating to its sustainability, as I was trying to explain with the -- as an answer of the previous questions, knowing the performance of October and knowing the performance of November, the gross profitability is even higher than the third quarter itself. In that respect, knowing that the volume is not going to be -- the level of demand will be at the same level, but the vehicle availability will be -- is not going to be too much different than the current year's level.
In that respect, we can say that even until the end of -- until the middle of next year, our profit margin is expected to be kept at the same level. I mean not at the same level. On average, it can be forecasted to be targeted around the performance of third quarter. But -- I mean, next year -- I mean we are in the age of a worldwide recession or we are maybe already in the recession, or maybe next year, we will be -- we may be talking about depreciation -- I'm sorry, depression. So we will see what the macroeconomic determinants will bring us. Maybe one day, the customer demand may not be the case or if we experience a rapid devaluation of Turkish lira against euro, then not only the vehicle sales prices, but also our profitability may not be kept at this certain levels.
[Operator Instructions] We do have a question from Mr. Lutfu Gazioglu from HSBC.
My question is on The vdf Servis holdings contribution to [indiscernible]. In the third quarter, I see TRY 1.5 million loss. What was the reason behind it? Is it related to any write-off?
Today, as you know, the credit penetration has really decreased a lot. In total, it has increased -- I mean, coming from 40% to 45% credit penetration. I mean, all, not only vdf, all banks together with vdf, we are at a level of 25%, 20%. And also, we have seen in the last months a level of 15%. So in that respect, vdf's sales performance has also increased -- sorry, decreased respectively. And also, there is an issue of liquidity mismatch that they are funding themselves in Turkish markets with short-term borrowings. The average maturity of Turkish banks loans are really shortened and shortened coming from 2 years to 1 year to 6 months to 3 months recently, but they are just granting credit in this competitive environment. In that respect, they are also having the adverse effects of this liquidity structure and also in terms of quotations, the effects of the competitive rates mainly of the public banks in the Turkish financial markets.
As a follow-up, does this trend continue in fourth quarter?
It may do so, yes. It may do so.
Okay. It looks like we have no further questions at this point. I'll pass the line back to the management team for the concluding remarks.
Thank you very much for your time and patience and for listening to us. We are really -- as Dogus Otomotiv family, we are doing our best to be able to sustain this operational and financial performance. So we are looking forward to see you with the year-end figures that we will be doing so, I think, in March or at the end of February. So we will see the timing. So thanks for listening to us. And I also thank my team members for their participation in this preparation phase. Have a nice day.
Thank you very much. This concludes today's conference call. We'll now be closing all the lines. Thank you, and goodbye.