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Thank you for standing by, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Coca-Cola HBC's conference call for the 2021 First Quarter Trading Update. We have with us Mr. Zoran Bogdanovic, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Ben Almanzar, Chief Financial Officer; and Ms. Joanna Kennedy, Investor Relations Director. [Operator Instructions] I must also advise that this conference is being recorded today, Wednesday, May 12, 2021.I now pass the floor to one of your speakers, Ms. Joanna Kennedy. Please go ahead. Thank you.
Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our first quarter trading update call. Today, I'm joined by our CEO, Zoran Bogdanovic; and our CFO, Ben Almanzar. Although we have added a webcast facility to our call for ease of access, there will be no slide presentation today as per our usual practice for trading updates. We will start with some opening remarks from Zoran, and then open the floor to your questions.[Operator Instructions] And we have about an hour for the call today, which should leave sufficient time to facilitate a good discussion.Finally, I must also remind everyone that this conference call contains various forward-looking statements. These should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary statements in our trading update press release, which we have published this morning.And with that, I will turn the call over to Zoran.
Thank you, Joanna. Good morning, everyone. I sincerely hope that you and your loved ones are safe and well. In Q1, we stayed focused on our strategic growth pillars: #1, leveraging our 24/7 portfolio with targeted prioritization; two, winning in the marketplace by focusing on our core capabilities and close partnerships with our customers; third, continuing to focus on efficiency and the careful prioritization of investments; fourth, delivering -- developing our people, particularly by accelerating critical capabilities; and fifth, earning our license to operate by making progress on our Mission 25 sustainability commitments and by setting new targets for 2030. These pillars are positioning the company for sustained success, but crucially have also guided us in the rigorous prioritization needed to perform through the crisis and to prepare for the recovery we are starting to see.Q1 like-for-like revenues grew by 6.1%. The strong execution driving this result is led by improvement in our route-to-market through greater use of digital tools and our increasing ability to segment our customer base into finer detail. We are also seeing results from our focus on gaining share in the highest value at-home occasions. This performance puts us on track to achieve the outlook we set at the start of the year for a strong recovery in FX-neutral revenues accompanied by a small increase in EBIT margins. Volumes grew by 4.7% on a like-for-like basis. This performance benefited from 3 additional selling days but was also delivered against the base, which included 2.5 non-COVID-impacted months. We have seen positive volume expansion every month in the quarter, and reassuringly, Q1 volumes exceeded those of 2019 as well as 2020. We have also seen the best improvement in price/mix this quarter since 2019.The power of our portfolio of Sparkling and Energy brands has been a key source of growth and profitability, and we have deliberately focused our resources behind these categories. Q1 sparkling volumes grew by 9.6% and Energy by 55.8%. Within Sparkling, growth has been broad-based across brands, but led by Trademark Coke. We are also seeing the strongest performance from our areas of strategic focus, low and no sugar, which grew by 22.6% and adult sparkling, which grew by 28.5% in the quarter.The second key driver this quarter has been the continued growth in the at-home channel and the speed with which we have been able to take advantage of the opportunities in at-home occasions. We have capitalized on the ways in which consumers are replicating the out-of-home experience at-home, for example, with Adult Sparkling products as an operative after work or while socializing at home. Overall, we are driving mid-single-digit volume growth as well as price/mix expansion in the at-home channel.The out-of-home channel remained under pressure due to COVID, with closures throughout the quarter in the majority of our markets. Trading improved towards the end of the quarter with out-of-home channel volumes stable in March after 20% to 30% declines for the previous 2 months as reopening in a few markets supported the channel. That said, we remain convinced as we were back in February, when we set our guidance that the path to recovery and reopening will be uncertain and will vary by market through the rest of '21. What has not changed is our support of our out-of-home customers. We have been, by their side throughout the crisis, providing them with consumer insights, targeted programs and practical support, and we are already working with them to ensure we capture growth opportunities together as markets reopen.Digital commerce trends have accelerated due to COVID, and we are investing in 4 key areas. The first is our own business, the business sales platform, where we are seeing a growing demand from our customers to order online from us. COVID has accelerated this change. But we believe that many of the customers who tried ordering online for the first time during the pandemic will continue to do so once COVID is behind us. We have plans to increase the percentage of our sales through this platform.The second is looking at other opportunities to digitize our route-to-market and add value to our customers with the use of more comprehensive e-marketplaces. These marketplaces can ultimately create ecosystem benefits.The third is partnering with our existing omnichannel customers to increase our digital shelf space and visibility on their own e-commerce websites and through working with newer digital-only customers such as food delivery platforms to increase the beverage penetration in food orders.And finally, by exploring the opportunities which are emerging in direct-to-consumer platforms, we are still early on this journey. However, we are seeing high double-digit growth in this area, have bold ambitions and are investing and building capability fast to achieve them.Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, we have seen our emerging segment outperform and the acceleration of its recovery in Q1 is notable. Within the segment, our largest markets are showing the best momentum. Nigerian volumes continue to expand double-digit despite high comparatives. We are benefiting from the underlying strength of the category, but importantly, also growing ahead of it and gaining shares. We are harvesting the benefit of investments we have made in the market in several key areas.Let me pull out 2 of the most important. Firstly, we have made decisive improvements in our route-to-market by consolidating several of our distribution partners. This allows us to work more closely with each partner building capabilities, driving faster consumer -- customer delivery times and better customer service.Secondly, Nigeria was a lead market for big data and advanced analytics. We can now fulfill consumer and customer demand in a much more precise way than ever before by building layers of information around an outlet, including key demand parameters like foot traffic, weather, social media activity and demographics. We are able to provide a targeted offering and in outlet execution to our customers, which ultimately drives more transactions. There is a significant opportunity in Nigeria. With a current population of over 200 million, Nigeria is expected to become the third most populous country globally by 2050. Combined this with its very low per capita consumption and you see a vast potential in the market, which we will continue to invest behind.Russian volumes have accelerated in Q1, growing double digit. We have seen strong growth in both at and out-of-home channels as the country has emerged from lockdown. Russia is also one of the markets where international travel restrictions boost local tourism, benefiting our business. We saw this firsthand during the New Year holiday celebrations this quarter. Russia remains a highly competitive market, but 1 where we are seeing strong results from our revenue growth management approach, which targets both affordable and premium offerings. We are able to manage demand for affordability through pack priced architecture, which hits the right price point for consumers. This combined with strong activation around the most high-value at-home occasions, particularly meals at home, is driving strong performance.On the premium side, Adult Sparkling is showing excellent performance, with Schweppes doubling in size in Q1. This reflects the great work done together with Coca-Cola Company team to elevate the offering with new visuals, packaging and flavors and execution in the market, which builds on the product as a premium mixer.The Developing segment's performance has been adversely impacted by the sugar tax in Poland, which came into effect in January. We have passed on the tax in full and performance has been in line with our expectations. We are seeing strong performance from Coke Zero and importantly, the market is showing good signs of recovery in March when we also relisted at a major retailer after temporary pause. In other markets in the developing segment, the most important driver of relative performance continues to be the ongoing restrictions in the out-of-home, which in Q1 were in place in most of the markets in the segment.Our Established segment, countries have the largest exposure to the out-of-home channel. And given the continuation of restrictions in Q1 and into Q2, are still feeling the impact of COVID-19. The offset to that remains the performance of the at-home channel where volumes grew by high single-digits in Q1. The continued good performance of price/mix in the established segment is notable in light of the challenges in the out-of-home channel. The main driver has been ongoing strong category mix due to good performance of Sparkling, particularly Trademark Coke. We have also grown Adult Sparkling double digit, while energy grew over 50%.The benefit from strong category mix is visible throughout the business. Q1 price/mix was up 1.3% like-for-like despite the adverse impact of closures in the out-of-home channel. Note that pricing taken in Poland to pass on the sugar tax contributed 180 basis points to price/mix in the quarter. What is encouraging is that the drivers of these improved price/mix trends appear sustainable. The strong category mix as a result of the good performance of Sparkling and Energy is due to our deliberate prioritization of these categories.The other largest driver is the stabilization of package mix due to both the first signs of improved trends in the out-of-home channel, where it has been allowed to reopen, as well as our conservative efforts to increase single-serve penetration in the at-home channel. And finally, we have proceeded with planned price increases in several markets during the quarter.Disciplined innovation remains a driver of growth today and tomorrow. By disciplined, I mean that you will see fewer innovations, which will be either truly scalable or more targeted. Costa Coffee is a prime example. As of today, we are live in 16 markets. In 2021, we will scale in these markets and start to bring more focus to the significant opportunity in the out-of-home channel. Our plan is to have Costa Coffee in all 28 of our markets by 2023.Along with large-scale innovations, we are making calculated choices in exciting new categories. We continue to develop Topo Chico, launching in Switzerland in April, and we are working on the targeted acceleration of Aquarius in several markets. Keeping our core business vibrant is of critical importance. This quarter, we have begun the rollout of an enhanced formula and package design of Coca-Cola Zero Sugar. We believe the revamped proposition will make the product even more lovable -- loved by consumers.We continue to make progress on our Mission 2025 sustainability commitments, and I'm also proud to say that during the quarter, we committed to further significant reductions in carbon emissions across our business and value chain. This quarter, we announced science-based targets in line with the 1.5-degree pathway to reduce Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions.Let me now bring you right up to date in terms of current trading and say a few words about the rest of the year and beyond. As mentioned at the start, we have seen COVID-19-related restrictions continue in our European markets into Q2. Nevertheless, given the continued strong performance in our emerging segment. And our expectation that vaccine rollouts continue over the coming months, we still expect a similar shape of recovery in '21 as we laid out at our full year results, namely a red scenario in Q1, moving gradually to Orange in the back half of Q2 and then progressively moving to green during the second half of the year. We are continuously monitoring the situation. The flexibility of our portfolio, route-to-market, commercial strategy and agility of our people will allow us to promptly adjust our investments and approach to maximize our opportunities.The speed of recovery from the pandemic remains uncertain, but Q1 puts us on track to achieve our '21 guidance for a strong recovery in FX-neutral revenues, along with a small increase in EBIT margin. Through all of this, we remain focused on the long-term potential of our business, guided by our strategic growth pillars and the financial targets we laid out back in 2019. We continue to believe that once recovery is underway, the business can return to the growth algorithm we laid out in 2019, which was for 5% to 6% FX-neutral revenue growth and 20 to 40 basis points of EBIT margin expansion per year on average.Thank you for your attention. I will now hand over to the operator, and Ben and I will be happy to take your questions.
[Operator Instructions] The first question today comes from the line of Andrea Pistacchi calling from Bank of America.
Yes. I have a couple of questions, please. I'll start with the first one, is, just really please, Zoran, if you could provide a little bit more color on the pricing environment in your main markets in the context. Obviously, you have the raw material pressures that are building. You said you've started to put through some pricing. Could you be a little more specific maybe where that pricing is coming through? When you would anticipate more pricing? What markets are more difficult? And then I -- the second -- I'll ask this one first, yes.
Andrea, I hope you are well. Thank you for the question. So on the pricing, indeed, to be -- to go directly there. Yes, we already have taken pricing in a number of our markets during Q1 were in line with our plans. And we do see that this year is going to be environment where this kind of healthy levels of inflation in the majority of markets actually pose a fertile ground to do that. And how we plan to do that? I just want to emphasize, this is the -- exactly the time when our revenue growth management capability, which we have been building in a very focused way over more than 4 years is exactly when it comes into its play. So we will be observing environment in every single market. And within the market, given a competitive play as well, this gives us the opportunity to observe opportunities for pricing between the categories, between the packs, between the various regions. So I would say in 1/3 of our markets, we have already taken price. This includes also our largest market and Russia and Nigeria and Italy, Greece is there. Poland, of course, because of the sugar tax, but we can talk about that separately. So to wrap up, all in all, yes, we started, and we will be seeing more opportunities down the road, leveraging the RGM. Does that cover, Andrea?
Yes, yes, that was helpful. Now the second question, I don't know how much you'll be able to answer this. But obviously, the Coca-Cola Company announced said a few weeks ago that it intends to IPO CCBA later in the year. So are you able maybe to say where you stand today on CCBA, whether hypothetic, I mean whether you may have considered acquiring the business or whether from your point of view, maybe the business is less attractive than it could have been 2 or 3 years ago. And connected to this seemingly with large M&A off the table for the moment at least, would you be comfortable maybe increasing slightly the leverage of the balance sheet towards the top end of your range?
Yes. Thanks, Andrea. Look, so as you've seen, as we've seen Coca-Cola Company announced its intention related to CCBA. And I think it's -- the thing is pretty clear. And as we always said, within the system, this kind of things always start with Coca-Cola Company. And this is the direction that they are taking, and I really have nothing else to add there. However, what I want to emphasize is that this is not reducing the appetite capacity and firepower of Coca-Cola Hellenic to do what may be the right thing to do down the road, when and if opportunities appear, and I remain positive and optimistic about that.I would like to highlight that our relationship with Coca-Cola Company is on a very good and very strong level. And down the road, I can hope and I believe that we will be able to discuss certain opportunities. Most important for us is to continue building Hellenic to be stronger and better company, investing in our capabilities, delivering strong performance and also strengthening our balance sheet to be able to do the right deals for the company. And when I say the right deals, by that, I mean, as I always said, 2 things. One is that there is a strategic fit. And there is also financial soundness of the opportunity that may present itself to us. So we remain very open for that. And I just close these remarks by saying that this in no way has reduced the appetite of Coca-Cola Hellenic for the right opportunities ahead.
The next question comes from the line of Richard Felton calling from Goldman Sachs.
My first question is on the energy category, which saw a pretty incredible growth in Q1. I wonder if you could dive in a bit more detail of what's driving the strong acceleration in the performance of the energy? And are there any reasons why the very strong growth in Q1 is just going to be a temporary acceleration? And then if you could remind us as well how much energy is as a percentage of your total portfolio? That's my first question.
Well, Richard. Yes, look, energy is super exciting category. And that's why now for many years, we as Hellenic believe in its potential and our partnership with Monster and now also with Coca-Cola Company in the energy category is very important for the future and our growth algorithm. Now this what you see in Q1 is not the outlier because I just want to remind that for 5 consecutive years, Energy is growing double digit. Also, the beauty of this category is that it's a quite valuable category, meaning the value over volume ratio. In last 4 years, we have -- it has grown more than 2.5x in the mix of our volume and revenue, reaching now that energy in our revenue as a mix is around 6.5%, while in the volume, it's 2.5%. So that gives you a good also feeling what's the value of the category. Now one thing also that contributes to our own performance is the fact that is the strength of the portfolio to start with because we have a proliferation of the brands for various segments of consumers as well as corresponding price points. As a reminder, Monster is a mainstream, then the upper end is burned, then even the more premium is Coke Energy. And then what we have done in the last 6 months or so also at the lower end or more affordable energy is Predator. So you can see that there are 4 tiers, and they very well complement each other. Second thing is that this category is expanding. It's finding its various adjacent segments with new functionalities. Another example of that is that we have also now in more than 10 countries. In the last 6, 9 months, we have launched on-store Monster Espresso, so blend of energy and coffee. Also, there is another emerging segment in the energy, which is called Performance Energy, and we have started with a brand -- Monster brand called Reign, in Ireland. And I'm sure that this category will continue its growth because it seems that also it fits the needs of consumers where they need -- in various day parts, they need a kick of the energy. And with such portfolio and even more functional propositions, there is energy proposition for everyone of us, and we remain very optimistic about the prospect and the potential of this category for many years down the road. That's what I would say.
That's very clear. My second question is on Nigeria, where you mentioned that you're benefiting from some of your investments in recent years in route-to-market and Big Data analytics. So my question is having made those investments, how have your expectations changed for the level of growth that you think your Nigerian business can deliver? And how should we think about the medium-term opportunity in Nigeria?
Yes. Richard, I can reiterate only what I said last year that Nigeria is a double-digit country. The potential of this country is mind blowing. It's not a walk in the power country with all the environment, macro, political, et cetera. However, evident in Nigeria is getting there. So that's why -- that's why potential is on 1 side. We strongly believe in the country. We know it very well. We've been there 70 years, and it is the root of Coca-Cola Hellenic and how we started. So we know very well how to operate there. And that's why we have never had hesitation about investment, both in the technical capacity and capability as well as the capabilities of our people to be able to be the key player and winning player in the market. So I can only say that with investments that we have done, that's only reinforcing our belief and expectations from Nigeria. By that, I don't want to say that we are not guided only by the volume potential because what we want to do in Nigeria and overall is the high quality or quality growth, quality revenue. And for that reason, if you might remember from -- well, these remarks as well as my previous remarks on Nigeria, whenever we start with something new, very often, it's actually that we start in Nigeria. 4 years ago, this was the case with revenue growth management. Then we've done a tectonic reshape of route-to-market. Also when we started with Big Data Advanced Analytics, we started again in Nigeria. That's only because it's such a big and important market, and every such capability investment helps us to pay a smarter and wiser game in the market. And that's what's impacting how we see the algorithm of the growth for -- in our case, for Nigeria. Does that help, Richard?
The next question comes from the line of Sanjeet Aujla calling from Crédit Suisse.
A couple of questions from me, please. Just coming back to the input cost point. Can you just talk about, if anything is change there within your guidance for this year? I know you've reiterated the EBIT margin guidance. But just wondering if kind of square that between what you're seeing on commodities year-to-date and ability to kind of mitigate that. That's my first question. And my second question, we're just coming back to the price mix, particularly in the established regions, 1.5 despite the channel and pack mix going against you. So I just love a bit more color on, if you could break that down between the various components. Clearly, category mix is positive and seems to -- and pricing is positive and seems to be more than offsetting the negative channel pack mix. How much of a drag was the channel impact mix component within established?
Thank you, Sanjeet. Ben speaking. Perhaps I can start kicking off with your question on commodities. The key commodities for our business are sugar sweeteners, PET resin and aluminum. In February, we guided you to a high single-digit increase in currency-neutral input cost per case for 2021. And that includes the effect of the products we buy as finished goods. I'm referring to Energy, Premium Spirits and of course, Coffee. Stripping that mix impact out, we'll be looking at -- we would have been looking at a low single-digit increase on prior year. Since then, we've seen commodity prices are moving on in 1 direction north. And our inflation expectation remains at high single digits now edging towards the operating of that range. And again, if we were to back out that mix impact from purchased finished goods, we'll end up with a mid-single-digit increase versus 2020. That is our current expectation. Input costs of low to mid-single digit is not unusual for our business considering our geographical footprint. We feel comfortable that we can manage it within the year. I am reassured by our solid hedging positions. We're currently covered approximately 70% of PET, about 80% in aluminum and about approximately 90% when it comes to sugar and sweeteners. And that provides a cushion against the market functions a year to go. Now hedging bite of time, and time gives us options. And as Zoran well said, by the end of Q1, we have already selectively price up in 1/3 of our markets. We will remain vigilant on how commodities change and how the environment progresses, they'll be ready to take this action to protect our margins. Does that give you...All right. Your second question was about the price/mix and perhaps I can establish markets and perhaps I can I can kick it off and happy for Zoran to build. What we're seeing in established markets is that the -- obviously, the category is becoming a key driver. Zoran referenced the health of our sparkling business, including Adult Sparkling and also Energy. And that's a key driver for our performance. And if in Q1 was more about the -- our emerging markets driving that top line growth. We see that rebalancing as the year progresses.
The next question comes from the line of Simon Hales calling from Citi.
A couple for me, please. Firstly Zoran, you talked about disciplined innovation and you referenced the Costa and Topo Chico sort of brands. Can you just provide a bit more color perhaps on What you're seeing from Costa in the 16 markets where you're live now? And also update us on some of the recent consumer appetite for Topo Chico? I appreciate you're just really rolling out there as we head into the summer selling season. So that's my first question.
Simon. Yes, on Costa, so we continue as per plan rolling it out with the direction that we get into all of our markets. This year, on top of 14 markets of last year, we added also Serbia and Cyprus. Now we decided last year to launch it, irrespective of the COVID restrictions, adjusting our plan. Definitely, this had some impact because we primarily focused on the at-home channel. However, even in such a restricted way that we have across the market, we already exceeded more than 1,300 the away-from-home outlets. So this is going to be the name of the game this year, where on top of the strong focus for at-home channel, we are to complement it with increasing and progressive focus and attention in away-from-home, in parallel as away-from-home will be reopening. Now I just want to say that what is -- okay, you start, but the question is how is it going? We see and hear based even on some first research, consumer research and customer feedback. We see very positive feedback from consumers, how they perceive the brand, which impacts also the right positioning as a premium mass segment proposition. So that's very encouraging. And just as a reminder, we are -- we have launched Costa in a variety of packs, which is not only ready-to-drink cans. Actually, they are very small but all other types, roast and ground beans, capsules, vending machines and across all channels. So we are very excited that things are progressing very well month by month. We are further building capability and teams in the countries that just launched or will be launching in the future. And I see Hellenic becoming very strong, respectable coffee player in all markets across our territories. On Topo Chico, that's more as also Coca-Cola Company says entry in a completely new category where there is a lot about test and -- test, trial and learn. Therefore, we did start across 5 markets last year. We're adding Switzerland also this year. And it's fair to say that this is emerging growing category, especially in some of the markets. In the market where this category is already more developed like, let's say, Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland. The level of engagement of consumers is on a higher level than in some markets where it's not yet the case. However, the fact that there are more and more entrants into the category, just proves that there is something interesting there. And I'm very happy that we are already there, collecting our learnings. Customers also believe in the high potential of this category. And we see some variable learnings from markets especially where this category already is performing better. Let's say, in Ireland, we have already reached within Tesco, which was the first customer some very respectable positions. We are already #3 within the account, we are proceeding with listings. We also reached in Austria, more than 20% share in the category, in Greece, more than 50% of the share. Yes, category is still smaller. However, It is growing and developing, and we are increasing the distribution. Now just a few last points. We've also learned from Island that the product has higher seasonality than expected. And also COVID restrictions are impacting key occasions for this product. So as the markets reopen and people will be able to be more out and socialized, et cetera, that's going to provide a tailwind for the category. And already, we have seen in April, for example, that we've seen that the category is really starting to grow faster than, for example, March. So all in all, we learn by every month, every week, but really pleased that we are fast and already there, ready to expand to other countries if and when the opportunities present themselves. Simon, does that cover?
Yes, that's really clear. And then secondly, I just wanted to sort of just follow up a little bit on your full year guidance. Obviously, it's unchanged from where it was sort of back in February from both a strong recovery in the top line and a margin standpoint. I wonder with regards to how you're seeing the strengthening of the revenue picture looking forward. As the mix of that -- those expectations changed, i.e., do you think emerging markets will prove to be stronger than you thought through 2021? Now compared to February and maybe the established markets is a little bit weaker. I'm just interested in the mix development of the guidance really from a geographic standpoint.
Yes, Simon. I'll start. And Ben, please feel free to jump in if there is anything else. So from today's point, we really think that the only thing -- the right thing is to reiterate the guidance where we are because -- okay, we are very pleased with the start of Q1. It is the smallest quarter. Still, there is quite a synchronous development of reopenings, et cetera. Plus there is what we discussed, input cost and commodities on 1 side. So that's where we are. And we will have much better visibility after first half. We are quite positive about the development of the emerging. However, also, we do have expectation how with reopenings. Also the established and developing will be also let me say, also awakening in line with the away-from-home reopenings. So I would expect that all these -- all 3 segments -- all 3 segments will play their roles in this revenue recovery of the year and in moving the -- our EBIT margin further up in line with the guidance.
The next question comes from the line of Natalia Svyriadi calling from Eurobank Equities.
Yes. [Technical Difficulty] actually wondering if we could go back and talk about...
Apologies, Natalia. I really -- I don't know how it's for others, but I can't hear well.
I'm sorry, can you hear me better now?
Yes, that's better. Thank you.
That's a bit better. I was wondering if we could elaborate a bit on the inflationary impacts in Polish coming from the tax in Poland. And how this would be for the remainder of the year, how -- what we should be expecting and with the tax kicking off in Italy also if this hasn't changed? Did you hear me?
Yes, yes. Yes. Yes, I heard the keyword, Poland, yes. So -- yes. Yes, that's the flavor of the year with this unique tax, which got into life from January 1. And with that, we have fully activated what we have thoroughly prepared for the launch. So that means that we have passed on the tax fully through our pricing. And that's quite a significant increase. I would say, in average, something like 28%, 30%. It varies from the packages. There are packages that have 30-plus price increases to packages that have around 15% because we have not done one-size-fits-all, but we have really adjusted the approach with our revenue growth management based on the packages. Also the fact that this taxation even though first time, this is also introduced not only on the full sugar beverages, but also on beverages with sweeteners. However, not to the same extent that has enabled us that we have a 2-tier pricing. so that no sugar variants are lower priced than full sugar. So fully in line with expectations. We see also impact on the volume, which is in the low 20s. And also, I have to say it was encouraging to see that even so early, we've seen a very good performance of Coca-Cola Zero Sugar in Q1 and also performance of energy, which was plus 20%. So it's inevitable to expect that with such price increase, which, by the way, it's not only that we have done it, but all other players as well have done the same thing of passing on the price -- sorry, tax through the price I think. So it's logical -- so it's logical that -- it's logical that this is going to have an impact in the first year of introduction. But then we strongly believe that the market will stabilize because it just becomes a new reality. And the fact that Poland is really a strong high-potential market, no doubt about that. The fact is that we do expect on a full year level that volumes will be maybe low single-digit to mid-single-digit decline as a result of that.
Yes, just a quick look from me on Zoran's point and especially that last 1 that if we look at Q1, in Q1, the contraction in Poland, is higher than what is expected for the remainder of the year. So we expect those volumes to pick up in Poland, therefore, adding to the mix as well.
Okay. That was very helpful. Do you think in Italy, you would be able to pass on the price with the same success? The price increases also?
Yes. When this comes into force, our approaches in these kind of things is the same that this kind of taxation, we are passing on through our pricing. So at the moment, we see visibility that sugar beverage taxes planned from January 1, 2022. Needless to say that we are in the same way preparing for that to be fully ready as we have done in the past in Ireland, now in Poland, et cetera. So the principle is the same that we are not absorbing that in our value chain, but passing it on.
The next question comes from the line of Edward Mundy calling from Jefferies.
A couple of from me. The first question is really around your success in the at-home channel where you're gaining some share and also boosting multipacks of single serves. My question is really, to what extent does your success in the at-home channel potentially drive increased frequency and usage on the other side of the pandemic? And could this be actually a driver of boosting pick at consumption on the other side of the pandemic?
I can't really say to which extent it might drive it, but I would tend to believe that because of so many drinking moments, which are happening now in the at-home and how we are adjusting to that in many ways, I would just say, because of pandemic, just in a more amplified way, we've been doing that before, but we just stepped it up and expanded it. And part of that is, as you mentioned very well, our focus on single serves for the at-home use. That's actually a great opportunity, where in various occasions during the day, consumers at home can better enjoy various packs or small packs, be it cans, glass because of the multipacks that we are also doing now at home. Also how we are doing the associations of various parts of the portfolio with other categories, whether through snacks for the snacking occasion, various meal products for meal occasions or for socializing mixability with Premium Spirits, which we also have in the portfolio. So all that is creating an embedding habit for consumers for various occasions. And yes, I would -- intuitive, we also believe that, that can impact the frequency and per capita also whenever the -- after the COVID times are coming. Does that make sense, Ed?
Yes, absolutely. And then the second question is really around pack and channel mix, which are currently still a headwind, but should turn into a tailwind as we get the gradual reopening. Are you confident in being able to get back to previous historical levels of revenue per case in the business?
Yes. Yes, I'm confident. It's just a matter of the variable of the time. And -- but yes, now we will see -- we will see how the whole reopening happens throughout the year because our package mix really depends a lot on the away-from-home because that's our stronghold, which we preserve and develop very carefully. And that's why you see as well the moment there are even certain levels of reopening where our single service can play a role. This immediately has a direct positive impact on our price/mix. So in short, yes, I'm positive that we will come there. And that's not only the result of the package mix, but it's also a result of our premiumization strategy that we are doing both with packages, but as well as with parts of the portfolio, example is Adult Sparkling, which is performing really well on a total group level. But also within certain countries, it's making tremendously good progress like Russia, which has doubled it in Q1 versus Q1 of last year. And as a reminder, that's the part of the Sparkling portfolio that's trading at a higher revenue per case than the average of the category. Concretely in Russia, it's around 16% plus. So same goes in other categories where we are always focused more on our higher value segment. So apart from the pricing, there is mix of packs and categories and segments, that all in blend will contribute that we will reach that what you were implying, Ed.
Great. And then my final question, just talking around premiumization in ensuring you're pushing higher revenue per case products is really around enhanced and functional waters that you're seeing cropping up more and more waters that include, let's say, calcium or vitamins or even some of the plant-based protein waters. It might be a little bit too early for those to be rolled out in some of your markets, given the still a really good In sparkling and energy opportunity. But is this something that's increasingly on the agenda when you're discussing new innovation with Atlanta?
Yes, it is. Yes, it is. And actually, as a matter of fact, we -- that's exactly what you have described is excellent description of Aquarius as a functional performance water. We have 2 variants: One is with magnesium; second 1 is with zinc. And that's what we -- that's part of those, let's say, carefully selected innovations that we are doing across several markets where we have already launched Aquarius. And that came as a result of that kind of work and partnership with the Coca-Cola Company team. So yes, and we see more opportunities in that space also going forward.
Your next question comes from the line of Alicia Forry calling from Investec.
I just wanted to touch on digital, clearly, a big advancement in that area during the crisis. I was just wondering if you could talk about this the size of your B2B platform today, which you say will be sticky and probably retain customer usage post crisis. Is that in all your markets? And any color you can give on the size of that and scope of that for further expansion? And then secondly, also sticking with digital. You talked about the Big Data capabilities and advanced analytics in Nigeria. Have you already rolled those out to other markets? How far are you in that sort of expansion of those digital capabilities across your footprint?
Yes. Thank you, Alicia. So on the digital commerce, if you will, there is a lot going on. It is the -- it is really a name of the game these days. Let me just first say by saying that during the last year, we have seen in all markets, step-up and acceleration of usage of our B2B own platform. But also across the online platforms of our omnichannel customers, also the way also our wholesalers have been leveraging our platform. So I just want to reiterate that we are investing in resources, investments in technology, in another versions of making all those platforms more customer user-friendly. And we do see results. We do see stronger -- very strong double-digit growth almost across all countries. Now I need to remind that as a percentage of our total revenue, we are still at the low single-digit levels where we stand today. However, there is no doubt that this is going to continue even beyond COVID with some -- with strong double-digit growth. And I just want to reiterate that we are very excited by it, and we are fully not only getting ready, but we are already there. As we speak, across our countries, we are either introducing our own new B2B and B2C platforms that we have been developing and those are being introduced. Also, what I would emphasize is that the number of customers that we have recruited during last year has been multifold bigger than where we've been before. So it's becoming kind of a new way of working which is complementing our physical route-to-market, call it this digital route-to-market. So for us, as a company that is very strong in the physical route-to-market, this is going to be a complementary blend where we see that the future will be in this phygital, if you want, physical and digital combined. And that's how we see that we can leverage digital especially for us that has -- that we have such a fragmented customer base and a huge number of customers with which we can really benefit from this new digital commerce area. Now on the Big Data Advanced Analytics, as I mentioned, in Nigeria was the first one. There are different markets at a different stage. We are going in phases. However, 1 fundamental thing that we are doing everywhere is segmented execution, that's like the foundation of the house for which then we are also doing other use cases. So by now, almost all markets in some shape or form are already being exposed and are part of the implementation and the rollout. This goes concurrently with staffing our group team as well as our resources in their respective countries. We regard this as a, I would say, as a transformational and transversal capability for Coca-Cola Hellenic. And we see ourselves in the future really being a data-driven organization, which is going to make much better use of unbelievable abundance of data that we have available in-house plus what we are getting externally from the market. And I'm very excited for this because this capability really injects even bigger confidence in driving our growth algorithm ahead of us.
The next call comes from the line of Charlie Higgs calling from Redburn.
Just a quick 1 on Trademark Cola goes from 9.1%. Can you just talk a bit about the early reception for the new tastes and packaging of Coke Zero? And whether that 9.1% was influenced by maybe some pre-stocking going into Q2?
Charlie, thanks. It's early to -- it is early to say Q1 practically was not impacted by the new recipe of Coca-Cola Zero because we literally started end of the quarter or maybe beginning of April. So it didn't have the impact on the quarter. That's number one. Secondly, we are rolling it out in all the markets. And we have actually a very high belief and hope that this is going to be the step in the right direction further with our 0 sugar strategy. Initial reactions are good. I need to remind that the Coca-Cola Company who actually does the evolution of the formula, and that's their task are doing always before these kind of things are done extensive research, consumer research, which we've seen together with them. We tasted it on our own. We love it. And early signs are good. However, literally, you are catching us in a moment of us, number one, rolling it out across the market. And needless to say that we are really full throttle, fully activating in all of our markets. So Coca-Cola Zero is having another booster of this year on top of the formula that we have introduced in 2016, and that has been doing well. And this is going to further accelerate our 0 and light proposition within the Coca-Cola trademark.
Your next question comes from the line of Ewan Mitchell calling from Barclays.
I hope you all are well. I was wondering if you could just quickly touch on the Nigerian competitive environment. It seems to be certainly over the majority of last year that pricing became a little easier to come by there. Is that continuing? And are you seeing the competitors continue to behave in a more rational way than perhaps we've seen in history?
Ewan, hope you are well as well. Yes, we do see exactly, as you said that last year, there was a -- there was definitely a more rational approach to -- in the market conduct. And also, so far, we continue to see that. So I think that various regional pricing versus -- in various types of categories and packages done in a really carefully orchestrated manner, I think plays a role, and I can observe that what we are doing that in a similar way, also other players in the market are doing. And I think that's at the end of the day, for the good of everyone, we all benefit from more healthy category and more healthy market overall. We also observed that maybe the competitiveness and intensity is not only is not only -- it's not primarily in the price, but it's more in the innovation. And that's the beauty of Nigeria that even though it's classical emerging market. However, the potential also can absorb more well-chosen and targeted innovation. which we are doing, but we also see that other competitors as well are doing, which also contributes to the fact that this is what ignites the market overall and its performance, which we see as a very good and welcoming thing.
Very helpful. And then perhaps on Russia, a very strong performance after the last couple of quarters that have been very good as well. Has something changed for the longer term there? Are you seeing a weaker competitive set? What is the -- what are the underlying drivers that are really causing this market to sort of outperform the way it is?
Yes. Yes, good question. Well, 1 thing that for sure, I will not see happening weaker competitive set that will not happen because as for us, also for others, Russia is a very attractive market with a strong future. It's a sizable market with still per capita that are far away from the Europe beverages, et cetera. So however, we -- even though market remains quite competitive, there is also element of the fact that let me start externally just to say that market growth is driven by a fairly positive macro and overall consumer demand, market is pretty much open across all channels. There are some capacity restrictions. So it's not totally 100%. However, already the levels where they are, is quite good for trading to happen. Also 1 more element that we see from statistics in the country is that consumer confidence, there is a growth in Q1 '21 versus same quarter last year. And also the consumer sentiment about the future is better than it has been in the last quarter of 2020. And we've seen that this kind of statistics in the past, our team has seen that they are a good indication of the consumer sentiment where the consumers are and the market. So we completely connect that with the fact that market is growing, and it's in a good shape. And within such market, we -- our team there is very disciplined with strategies that are executed in a very disciplined way, which means focusing, for example, on meals, which is a critical occasion in Russia. There is a big focus on both affordability proposition as well as premiumization. I mentioned earlier in my answer how, for example, adult strategy within Sparkling is really showing in Russia very well the impact. In Q1, we have doubled the Adult Sparkling as a result of that conscious deliberate strategic choice in which we started investing 2 years ago because we have done total package revamp, flavor extensions, change of glass and PET marketing with Coca-Cola Company has been different. So altogether, that's driving it. We see in Russia that both affordability options as well as premium, smaller packs are growing. Like, for example, cans are about 20%, glass is about 20%. You might remember that some 18 months ago, We've done a downgrade from 1 liter to 0.9, exactly as a result of our RGM that Russia is 1 of the role models. And we see this package performing extremely well. In Q1, it was more than 50% growth rate. We also see that also juices in Q1 have performed quite well. On a like-for-like basis, they grew double digit. So we see that being consistent with strategies while building capabilities from revenue growth management, continuous work on route-to-market. Russia is also doing on Big Data Advanced Analytics. So all that is playing a role, together with continuous upskilling of our teams on the ground. And that gives the result. And I'm very confident about future of our business in Russia, even though it remains highly competitive, but I believe that with our capability development and strength of the team over there, I have no doubt that we will continue with a very good growth in Russia.
That's very helpful. And perhaps my last question. Given the CCBA transaction has kind of come off the table for you and the foray into alcohol with Topo Chico, but also your Premium Spirits. Is that somewhere that you're actively looking to allocate more capital? Or is it something that you're seeing how it develops and playing as it goes?
Let me start the question on the capital allocation side, if that's okay. So our priority Ewan are, the first 1 is organic investments to support growth. And therefore, that implies CapEx for coolers and the infrastructure allow us to grow the business organically. Then we have the progressive ordinary dividend policy that pays 35% to 45% of comparable net profit. Then there's obviously the M&A options, both from and extension into transformation into new geographies. So I think to that point, sustaining the business is going to be our first priority when it comes to capital allocation.
Next question comes from the line of Pinar Ergun calling from Morgan Stanley.
Just a very quick follow-up on that capital allocation question. At what point would you consider returning cash to shareholders given that CCH's leverage is at the low end of its peer group? I appreciate you just highlighted your capital allocation priorities. But any color on What would trigger that? How long would you wait for a potential external growth opportunity to come along, et cetera? That would be very helpful.
Thank you, Pinar. Zoran previously referenced the fact that having a strong balance sheet puts us in a very good position when it comes to seizing opportunities as they become available. We spoke in the past that we have an active pipeline of -- and I can remind you of businesses that we have acquired in the recent past like Bambi, Lewis that has been very successful and are accretive to our group results.Now if after a cycle over the midterm, we see that we have exhausted all of our options, then we can always consider the additional capital return in the form of extraordinary dividend.
Pinar, I'll build here on Ben. Just to reiterate that we are quite busy and keen with explorations of a number of opportunities that as we are quite keen to keep investing in the business to really nurture it for the growth. And in that regard, I still want to reiterate that the appetite and the willingness to find the right opportunities. And I remain hopeful that there will be some opportunities for the usage of that capital.
The next question comes from the line of Alexander Gnusarev calling from VTB Capital.
I have just a quick couple of questions. The first one, what was your penetration of out-of-home channel in total volumes for Italy, Greece and Ireland pre-pandemic? Or you could just say this amount for the developed markets? This is the first question.
Alexander, sorry, can you say what was our penetration of what?
Out-of-home channel in total volumes.
Out-of-home channel in total volumes, there are various markets. In some markets, it would be below 30% in markets, 30% to 40%. And then there are kind of more established markets, which are above 40%. So Greece would be an example of a market where out-of-home is about 40%. Italy in a similar way. So that's where we are.
Perfect. The second question, when you passed new tax -- new sugar tax in Poland to prices, how much did you increase them in the first Q '21 year-on-year terms?
In average around 28%, but it really depends on certain packages, it's -- let's say, 33% on some other packages 15%, 16%. But in average, across portfolio, it's around 28% in Greece.
Perfect. And the last question from my side. Did I give it correct that your volumes in Russia were down low single digits because of this reconciliation of your juice business, right?
Yes. That's why we also talk about our results like-for-like because that really gives through operational apple-to-apple comparison.
And if you speak up top, did you gain market share in the first Q '21? And if so, how much did it increase in percentage points?
We've been growing share in majority of the markets. I don't know, do you mean on specific market or overall?
Just Russia. Just Russia.
In Russia, we have been -- in Russia, we have been growing our shares for the full year of last year, we have in Q1 a minor decline of the share. However, that's according to plan and phasing as we have imagined our game plan between the quarters. And I remain quite positive on the fact that we will be also growing share this year in Russia.
Alex, this is Joanna. Thank you for the question. Do you have any further questions on Russia, perhaps we can take them off-line with IR?
No, it is enough from my side.
The next question comes from the line of Mitch Collett calling from Deutsche Bank.
I've only got 1 quick 1 on just where over time already. Can you perhaps give us an idea of what level of pricing would be required to fully offset the input cost pressure you detailed earlier this year? And knowing what you know now, assuming no change, what level of pricing would be required in '22 to ensure no margin impact from the current level of input cost rises?
Mitch, perhaps let me start with the answer. When we think about pricing, we don't think at about a blown tool. We've referenced in the past the capabilities of RGM and that is very, very important because we price up, yet to offset inflation, yet to offset commodities prices, but also to make sure that we see some of the right opportunity for the market depending on what's possible given the competitive set. So what I will say there is that when we consider, again, our hedging positions that result in a mid-single-digit inflation in input costs. And we offset that versus the work that we have been doing on pricing in the different markets and very importantly, driving the right mix of businesses and the right tax and channels, that results in an algorithm that works and allows us to maintain the guidance for the year of our -- a small improvement in the EBIT margins.
Understood. I appreciate it's a lot more complicated than I made out, but I'm just trying to get a sense for earlier, you obviously said that you're used to this level of inflation. And clearly, you're not worried about profitability this year, otherwise, you wouldn't have said what you said in the guidance. It's just -- I'm trying to understand how manageable the cost pressures are you're seeing today for next year? And whether or not it's going to be easy enough to offset those cost pressures in Q2 as it sounds like you're going through in '21?
Okay. Yes. Look, it's a great question. The -- if you look at Q1, for example, as perhaps as an indication to try to be helpful. And you think about the things that are driving the business in Q1 and therefore, the margins, you have -- we're growing volumes. And then through that combination of pricing, in driving the right mix of categories, then those things are pushing up our revenue. Then you think about the things that are working against the revenue and bringing it or weighing it down, then you have FX. You have the competitive moons and you have another channel in pack mix as a consequence of the lockdowns. So if you fast forward for remainder of the year and for 2022 effectively, you would expect these things that are weighing down on the business apart from FX. That should be coming back. So this is why when we think about 2021, gives us the confidence, but very, very importantly, we help us prepare for 2022. The commodities environment is pretty volatile. And it is still early to see how things are going to pan out in 2022 and beyond, but we're getting ready.
And Mitch, this is Zoran. I just want to reiterate 1 important thing, which I really can't emphasize enough, and that's the revenue growth management capability that we have been building over years because exactly this type of capability in every single market is a way how we read the market, how we adjust and how we play the ball in every single market because it is not that one-size-fits-all. The impact even from commodities and various other things are different by market. However, because we have our RGM capability and teams in each of the markets. When these things like commodities, et cetera, happen, this just becomes 1 additional variable that revenue growth management work is taking into account. And based on that, we take unique actions for every single market. So I just wanted to emphasize that piece. And that's a critical component and capability that we have, and we are just further building.
The next question comes from the line of Osman Memisoglu calling from Ambrosia Capital.
Just very quick 2 questions. First one, for your largest 3 markets, Russia, Nigeria, Italy, any commentary color on short-term update after Q1 would be helpful, particularly with Russia and Nigeria price increases? Are you seeing any difference in uptake in volumes. And I guess, with Italy with recent easing of restrictions, any color you can provide there? And with Italy, do you think that sugar tax will happen next year?
Osman, in short, I can say that overall, the -- our trading in start of Q2 has been quite positive. And it includes 3 mentioned markets. So fully as we planned and as we expected, it started quite well. And the pricing that has taken in the countries has been done quite well embedded. And there were no, let's say, no hiccups or anything. So everything went quite smooth. Related to Italy tax, as I mentioned earlier, from our visibility, it is -- we do see that sugar beverage tax should and most likely will start from January 1, 2022. If anything changes in that regard, we will let now in 1 of the future calls. But at the moment, we -- our teams are planning with that time line.
And should we expect a similar level of price increases to Poland?
It's not as big. No, it's not as big as Poland. But we are looking -- if that would happen as it stands today, that would be some mid-teens price increase approximately.
Okay. And the second one, very quick one. I know it's a trading update, but any color on how your CapEx, working capital developments have been so far? I'm guessing you're picking up investments in coolers as you had guided earlier. Any color would be appreciated.
Ben?
Yes, perhaps I can help there. When it comes to CapEx, we have a guiding range of between 6.5% and 7.5% of percentage of revenue. We're probably going to go towards the upper end of that range this year as we continue to, again, invest behind growth initiatives for the business. And when it comes to working capital, you might recall that during our full year results, we talked about how we had a favorable phasing that came in, in Q4 2020 and from customers paying earlier than we initially expected. And that we would see some of that coming through, particularly in the first half of the year. And I can confirm that we're seeing some of that, and it will be visible during the half year results.
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from the line of Andrea Pistacchi calling from Bank of America.
I have just a very quick housekeeping follow-up. And sorry, when I booked it, I didn't realize the call would last so long. But you've talked about Poland and the sugar tax there. The low 20s volume decline in Poland though seemed a bit worse probably than we at least where we're expecting. Now you also referenced a temporary delisting there. So I'm just wondering what sort of impact this delisting could have had on the quarter and whether the dispute there with the retail is now resolved?
Yes, yes, it's fully resolved. Nothing major. It was just, I would say, part of the regular negotiation and coming to win-win solution that eventually has been achieved very well. And the trading fully resumed. So it did have some impact, but now between the impact of the tax and this, I can't really tell exactly how much it was, but I wouldn't overemphasize it in any way. And if anything, Andrea, I would just say that this volume impact, even though it's low 20s. However, it even came a little bit better than we expected for the first few months. So all in all, I reiterate that in Poland, how everything is evolving is fully in line with the expectations.
We have no further questions coming through at this time. So I'd like to hand the call back over to your host for any closing remarks. Thank you.
Thank you. And thank you for your time today. We believe that the results we announced today despite the continuation of COVID-19 related restrictions through most of our markets, underline the fundamental attractiveness of our markets and industry as well as the importance of the careful prioritization, which has ensured resilience even in the current challenging operating environment. While clearly, there are uncertainties and challenges to come, we are well prepared to continue to adopt and capture the considerable growth opportunities in our industry.Now let me extend my good wishes to you and your families and all of us at Coca-Cola HBC sincerely hope you stay and well. We look forward to speaking to you all again soon. Thank you.
Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.