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Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and I would like to welcome you to MHP's Q1 2022 Financial Results Conference Call on the 17th of June 2022. [Operator Instructions] The format of the call today will be, as usual, a presentation by the management and IR team, followed by a question-and-answer session. Without further ado, I would now like to pass the line to MHP. Anastasiya, the floor is yours.
Thank you, Michael. Dear stakeholders, good afternoon and good morning. Thank you for joining us today for MHP's conference call. I am Anastasiya Sobotyuk, Director of Investor Relations and International Communications. On the call today, together with Viktoria Kapelyushnaya, CFO of MHP, will discuss MHP's financial and operational results for the first quarter of 2022 as well as current operational environment and expectations for this year, taking into account that Ukraine is now at war with Russia. Today's call is based on information released earlier today publicly. However, during our call, we will discuss our projections and plans based on our assumptions. Domestic and international trends, please take it into consideration. We are now on Page #3 of the presentation. Let me start from the general overview of the first quarter of 2022. First of all, on 21st of February, Russia invaded Ukraine and the war started. And today is 114th day of the terrorism and cruelty, the vast majority of which you are aware of through public information. Ukrainians as well as the democratic society are all fighting for peace, and we all want Ukraine's victory as soon as possible. But we are still on the way through it and need to keep on going facing different and significant challenges war time brought us. Ukraine however requires international support now and, of course, in the future. We need this support to fight the aggressor and terrorism. We need the support to rebuild our country after the war, as based on preliminary estimates, it will take Ukraine around 3 years after this terrible war finishes to rebuild the economy of the country. MHP team continues to undertake all possible efforts to manage all difficulties and obstacles. Our unity is strong, and therefore, Ukraine can rely on MHP in terms of food security, which is now a hot topic, not only in Ukraine but in the world. Let me now proceed with the company's results for the first quarter of the year. Slide #5. It is rather strange to say, but that was a good start of the year, mainly driven by strong operations in January and in February. Revenue increased by 24% to approximately USD 550 million with export revenue of around $308 million. EBITDA was $41 million, 19% lower year-on-year with war-related expenses, first time in our history of around $25 million. Next Slide #6. This slide shows our financial results by segment. As you can see from the table, the vast majority of revenue as well as EBITDA in the first quarter of 2022 arrived from poultry and related operations traditionally due to seasonality effects but also because of the start of the war in Ukraine at this time, continued to the -- contribution to the revenue from green growing segment was rather low 6% only. Let's have a closer look at each business segment on our next slide, and here I pass my word to Viktoria.
Yes. Thank you, Anastasiya. Good afternoon, everyone. Let's have a look at MHP Ukrainian poultry segment performance. Slide #7. It is important to highlight that today because of incredibly challenging environment, MHP is operating at around 80%, 85% poultry capacity utilization. Despite of significant logistical and infrastructure challenges in Ukraine, MHP managed to deliver good result -- good result in Q1 2022, which are however driven predominantly by strong results in January and February. Result of March were very weak with negative results of EBITDA first time in our history. Total revenue in poultry segment increased by 20% year-on-year driven mostly by increase in poultry and vegetable oil prices on export market. Poultry price in Ukraine remained stable compared to the fourth quarter of last year. With regard to poultry production costs year-on-year was increase by 25% and yes, both driven by growth of grain and silage prices. Quarter-on-quarter poultry was also increased, mainly relating with cargo and gas prices, February and decrease in production volume in March which was partially offset by decreased cost of protein cake. An additional negative impact in poultry results was due to -- incurred in significant losses as a result of continuous war in Ukraine, the nation damage write-offs and other expenses. Let's move on the next Slide #8. MHP spring sowing campaign has been completed, a coordinate to plant all winter crops are currently winter and spring crops are currently in good condition. EBITDA of this segment in Q1 amount $2 million, mainly driven by grain export trading on January and February. Let's proceed to the Slide #9. Adjusted EBITDA of this segment decreased, mainly driven by war-related challenges, namely disrupted delivery of raw material and challenge in logistics which led to reduced sales volume and write-off of inventories. Please proceed to the Slide #10, several words about Perutnina Ptuj. Growth in capacity in Serbia and Croatia as well as positive price demand result in around 11% increase in revenue year-on-year which resulted in EBITDA growth by $2 million year-on-year. We will continue to invest and to develop Perutnina Ptuj through 2022, raising its operational efficiency and increased production volumes. Slide #11. Taking into account current operation environment, having got a good loan portfolio structure with majority of long-term liabilities and deferred short-term loans and Eurobond component payment, the company managed to maintain its liquidity efficient for business need level, keeping its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio at 1.9, the same level -- at the same level at the beginning of the year. Due to the fact that MHP has to invest significant results in working capital in 2022, the company's liquidity is priority to management team. It is under our constraint, control and intention. Moreover, SG&A and other operating expenses as well as CapEx have been reduced to the minimum requirement to meet the primary needs of group's core businesses. Today, the group's cash balance is around $200 million. Huge fund in working capital during the Q1 was mostly related to investment in inventory, primarily due to grain growing entities in respect to spring sowing campaign. Total CapEx in Q1 amounts $34 million, mainly related to modernization product, new product development, and maintenance and improving of Perutnina Ptuj production facility. And now I give the floor to Anastasiya to conclude presentation.
Thank you, Viktoria. Dear stakeholders, we are now approaching the end of the second quarter of the year. Where do we stand now? First of all, in a couple of weeks, MHP will start harvesting winter crops, winter wheats and winter rapeseed mainly, of which a decent amount of crops will be exported. We hope so. Taking into account that all businesses in Ukraine are experiencing significant logistic challenges, it is both time, cost and vehicles availability. Our export division is working 24/7 to make it happen successfully for the benefit of the company. Poultry production facilities continue to operate at 85% capacity utilization, and we try our best in all possible routes to serve both Ukrainian and international markets, logistics is the king. In general, there is a high level of certainty regarding how our next quarter's operations will look like? And what kind of financial results this uncertainty will bring to the company. But as I said at the beginning of the presentation, MHP is united as never before, to support Ukraine, Ukrainian situation and the whole world providing full security to the extent possible. We are now ready to start our Q&A session. Operator?
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Mr. Rahul Chopra from Caspian Capital.
I was just wondering if there was any guidance on when future debt service will start? And if there's any further comments on the capital structure and any plans that MHP has?
Thank you for your question, question about our debt option. We think that by the end of the year, we suppose that all of the structure will remain the same. We are more or less because you understand that now is more than 90%, 95% is the long-term debt in bond. Regarding CapEx, we understand the minimum CapEx for Ukraine is approximately around -- because include maintenance CapEx and includes these investments, which we did in the first quarter is around $85 million.
So I was wondering more when will -- is there any plans on the coupon, the debt coupon being repaid? And also regarding the capital structure, if there's any questions around managing the capital structure, liability management, that kind of stuff?
Sorry, maybe I did not catch your question, yes, because your question about coupon, what's the exact question about coupon?
It's about the coupon on the bond, the interest, when will the interest start to be paid?
Start to be paid. Yes. We suppose that we will start pay on September. But unfortunately, you understand that we cannot guarantee, yes, we cannot guarantee the situation in Ukraine, especially right now. You understand that Ukraine in war and based on the current situation, we see the current situation, we understand that we will pay in September. But I suppose everything will be at minimum to the same level.
Got it. That's super helpful. And then no comments on the capital structure at large in terms of managing the debt? Or is there anything you can share there?
If you can let us know what do you mean by capital structure? Do we have any restrictions? Do we have -- yes, what you -- what do you mean?
Just in terms of like refinancing or dealing with the maturities on the debt or there's a lot of discount. Obviously, the bonds are trading at a pretty deep discount. I was just wondering if that's something the management team thought of.
Sorry, I told you that we think that the capital structure will remain the same, which we have today, 90% in bond. I cannot imagine how we -- now in current situation, we can refinance our bond. Maybe your question about something thought?
Our next question comes from Mr. Daniel Walther from Morgan Stanley.
Yes. And my question was on the working capital movement. I saw actually your outflow in Q1 was only $67 million versus $101 million last year. Maybe you can give us a little bit of color given sort of the particularity -- particular challenges that your business is facing at the moment, how that impacts your working capital?
Thank you very much for this question. Yes, you're completely right. We understand that this year, we will have the huge investment in working capital. I will explain why because we -- unfortunately, we significantly -- right now, we decreased our payable, yes. And regarding and everything what we would -- what we need to buy. We buy on condition advance payment, yes. As a very important point that today we see the big investment in our businesses regarding export poultry and export oil, yes, because time for delivering our product from Ukraine to custom to our clients is significantly higher 60-day. For example, sunflower oil because previously, it was just now, we received the payment from clients only in 3 days after sent oil. And as the very important point, you have some uncertain regarding VAT reendorsement, you understand that 60% and even 65% of total our revenue from export but now is some big issue regarding VAT reendorsement this year. And generally, we understand that our investment in working capital this year will be around $200 million.
So for the full year, you see an outflow of...
Yes, for the full year. Yes. Yes. Yes. For the full year, yes.
Okay. And the main driver is that, I guess, inventories are up given sort of your lower...
Yes. Main driver is increased trade receivables and inventories and inventories of export sunflower oil and poultry meat.
And then I guess on the VAT receivable, I guess that also takes away some funding from you because you're waiting longer on that [indiscernible] get paid.
Yes, yes, [indiscernible] yes.
Okay. But then I saw in Q1, you had a lower outflow actually than you had the year before. Maybe you can help us understand that part.
Yes, I will explain because at the beginning of 2021, we had very a stock of grain which we use in poultry production. This year, we have at the beginning of the year, fortunately, for us, we have very high stock and that is why -- yes, it is the main reason. While last year, we had so big investment in working capital.
Our next question comes from Mr. Robert Watkins from Deutsche Bank.
Just a couple from me. Firstly, could you give a bit more detail on how you're actually fulfilling the export contracts with the continued blockade of the Black Sea?
Yes. Our export -- all our export now we provide to Europe, no truck, trucks through Europe and we use Klaipeda ports and Constanta airport for export of poultry. Regarding sunflower oil the same, which is railway to Europe and from [ Ratne ] to port Constanta.
And is that a long-term viable solution? Or is this just a sort of a temporary fix, but it wouldn't be sort of economical long term to maintain these kind of export channels? I mean particularly for your sort of grain segment and maybe less on the chicken meat, you tend to need sort of high-volume containerships to sort of ship that economically. So maybe some color.
You can -- because if you think about export tariffs, export tariffs increased. If you speak about, for example, export tariffs of meat to MENA region approximately higher by 3x. Regarding export tariffs to Africa 4x higher compared to the previous year is significantly higher and the same situation which is regarding sunflower oil, yes, it's significantly higher. And it's not just issue about logistic cost is increased and are the issues that is a very long-term period, because now we -- if we have you in our border, you'll be struck in our border for 7, 8 days.
So where do you see sort of caeteris paribus keeping the kind of export routes as they are now, where do see the EBITDA margin by using the on land European export routes and the tariffs?
EBITDA margin of export poultry?
Correct. Yes. Just the generalized impact of the EBITDA margin given the new way of fulfilling your export contracts.
Yes. This is a very important question. It is EBITDA margin maybe is not so bad, but the other very important issue is the quantity of export. This is the problem. Yes, we have the big inventories and big inventories in storage in Ukraine, export produced. And EBITDA much at the same time, if you speak about the export price, export price increase in Europe, yet in Europe, yes, and EBITDA margin very similar, maybe the same as last year. But is the issue quantity.
So in terms of quantity -- so I think 80%, 85% capacity in terms of the exports that you're fulfilling kind of rough percentages.
No. For example, yes, I cannot say the -- I cannot predict anything. If you think about the April in March, yes, I will tell you a figure. In March, we export from Ukraine. In April, it was around 15,000 tonnes. In May around we sell to the export around 20,000 tonnes. So this same period last year, we export it every month around 27,000 tonnes.
Okay. And then I take it say -- I believe I heard that the domestic price of chicken, you're seeing is pretty stable in Ukraine. Does that mean there's been quite a move in your domestic margin there, gross margin due to the sort of input cost?
Gross margin is significantly lower compared to the last year, if you think of the Ukrainian market because, yes, our price is the same as last year and even lower due to the mix and if you see the same product margin is significantly lower compared -- 2x compared to the last year.
And in terms of not passing that through on your top line, why do you think that a decision you've taken as a business? Or you're just unable to get price increases through to try and protect your gross margin?
It is the 2 issues, yes, first of all, it's a demand and supply. Yes, one of the few other we try to be responsible for our country, for our clients. Yes. At the same time, [indiscernible] as we need to sell enough here on the market. Yes, it is a combination of a lot of factors.
Sure. And then one final question. I see that you announced a loan with EBRD for $24 million to support the Ukrainian farming operations. I don't know if you could give a bit more detail on sort of why that came in? It seems like your cash balance today is pretty healthy at $200 million.
Yes. Completely. Right now, our cash balance is not so bad, but nobody, yes, nobody knows what will be in 1 month. This is why the main intention for us to have good liquidity position. And also -- and uncertainly regarding our investment in working capital, I told previously because that this year, we have big investment in working capital regarding trade receivables effects, regarding the reimbursement of VAT. And that is why we wanted to have additional undrawn line or additional money on down the table.
Our next question comes from Mr. Konstantin [indiscernible] from Opto Capital.
I have a question about liquidity as well. So as of the 31st of March, you had access to trade credit facilities of $124 million and cash of $308 million. So you're saying now that the cash balance went to $200 million, and I guess that's on the back of the completion of the sowing campaign? I guess the question is, so on top of $200 million of cash that you have at the moment, how much of trade credit facilities you have access to? So that's the...
Yes, yes. Unfortunately, we don't have any undrawn facility right now.
So that the $124 million was drawn by the liquidity providers, so they are not available anymore?
We have just now only $40 million for financing [indiscernible] Yes, we have just one loan undrawn in -- yes, in Ukraine, we have the time some [indiscernible] facility and now it is finished, unavailable, yes, unavailable.
Yes. So basically, at the moment, you have $100 million of cash and then $40 million available in...
Yes and $25 million plus EBRD.
EBRD loan. Got it. And then historically, in -- and this cash of $200 million is as of the middle of June, right?
Yes. Yes.
Got it. Got it. And then historically, Q3 was the quarter when you released some cash from working capital, should we expect cash release this year as well?
Yes, it's a very good question. Yes, historically, yes. But why? Because historically, in third quarter, we sell a lot of grain [ flex ], rape, wheat. Now is some issues in some uncertainly gain. Yes, we will try, and I hope that but not so -- I'm not sure that we can sell all the rapes in third quarter. I think that we partially will sell during maybe 6 months, yes, because you understand the problem in logistics and this problem.
Got it. Got it. But conceptually, you should start collecting harvest and sell it, right? So it should be the source of cash in Q3, production is going to be as much as last year, but in terms of the...
Yes, you are absolutely right. Since August, maybe by the end of July, we will start to sell rape. Yes. But anyway, you understand these all problems regarding logistics.
And in terms of export levels, let's say, months today in June versus last year, could you please give a sense on sort of key products, how much exports are down in percentage terms on a year-on-year basis?
Yes. I can say that about, for example, May, because June is not finished, I don't want to talk, nobody knows to be in 3 days, yes, I don't want. Regarding last May, we sold for the export around 37,000 tonnes, look like this 37,000 -- 38,000 tonnes, last May around 20,000 tonnes.
20,000 tonnes. And as June progressing, is it improving or it's in the same position, how do you see the situation?
Yes. I hope, yes, but yes, unfortunately, it kind of the 20,000. Yes.
Got it. And just on this EBRD loan, could you please confirm what was the interest on it and the maturity of it, and assumably it's secured...
No. I cannot say, yes, because it's commercial, it is not right.
But can you say at least is it lower than the bond interest or higher? Any color on that?
I mean, no, yes -- is not yes, it seems to me it's not comparable even compared to the coupon of the bond. It's not comparable. Yes, it is a lower.
It's lower.
Significantly, significantly.
That's great. That's great. And then so finally, in terms of the access to additional liquidity, let's say, can you get loans from similar institutions as EBRD or maybe there is more capacity with EBRD if you need liquidity down the road. Do you see money coming?
Yes. It is a good question. We are working for this issue. But unfortunately, it is very difficult, but some negotiation with different financial institutions. But I cannot say more, yes. It is a real problem. It's the one of the big problems in Ukraine, is the access to loan, to credit facilities even for company as MHP. Yes.
Got it. Got it. And finally, just on the point of cash balance. So out of $200 million, how much of that is in dollars, how much of that is in local currency and that $200 million, does it sit in Ukraine or outside of the country, how to think about it?
No, yes, nothing change in our financial policy. We do not allow our history, we try to give the 95% in -- 90% in dollars -- yes, in dollar. And the biggest part outside, yes.
Got it. Got it. All right. We appreciate that and all the best.
Our next question comes from Mr. Dmitry Ivanov from Jefferies.
Can you hear me?
Yes, please go ahead.
Yes, yes, yes.
I appreciate all your updates, keeping us updated. Kind of just to understand the situation like maybe elaborate a bit on this question with the current export sales and domestic sales. I understand that there is like uncertainties at this stage, it's difficult just to predict the future with the situation happening. But you mentioned like in May amounted to approximately 37,000 exists, right? And approximately 20,000 was like domestic sales, right? The company is still putting some sunflower oil, as you mentioned, right? So I'm also trying to understand like and the levels of domestic sales. Company generated cash in terms of the free cash flow or you really need just to harvest winter crops and start exporting this winter crops free cash flows to be positive. So just like my first question on the current situation and your reliance on the winter crops. So can you -- can the company survive in terms of the free cash flow without these grains or not?
Thank you for a lot of questions. I will try to answer, yes, one by one because a lot of question. And I -- it seems to me -- my answer for this question that anyway. Yes. If you speak -- regarding 37,000 and 21,000, it seems to me you were on because what I talked about the figures. Last year, in May, we exported 37,000 tonnes. This we export 21,000. Do you understand?
Yes. In May?
In May, I would like to just compare regarding cash for this year compared to the last year for understanding whole picture. If you speak about regarding how today is the share between export and Ukraine market. So it depends of the month, for example, on March we sell 90% only in Ukraine. In April, it was approximately 70%. It was approximately 60%, look likely, yes. Because today, it is very big, yes, because it is -- I would like to repeat it is regarding logistics and just the open issue. And are your question, one of your question was about working capital. No, no, no. Regarding grain, winter, yes, yes. I say [indiscernible]. Yes, usually, we start to sell winter crops from July, August, yes, but and usually, we sell all rapes in the third quarter, yes, because we don't have any problem with logistics and 70% of wheat usually we sell in third quarter. This year, and so at 100%. It would be very difficult, and we will sell, no doubt, but we will gradually sell maybe during the 6 months, 9 months because there's a problem with logistics.
Understood. But you don't sell any kind of grains because there are no kind of inventories in terms of the grain. So you -- the company sells only sunflower oil and poultry, like, so exports and plus domestic, right?
Yes, fortunately for us, you're completely right. Yes, we did not have any talks for grain which we wanted to sell for the export, yes. Just grain from the new harvest, harvest 2022, yes.
It is profitable without like sale grains. So like if you look at the sunflower and poultry without sale of grains, the company can generate like positive free cash flow. I'm talking about like on the kind of EBITDA.
Yes, yes.
Understood. Understood. Okay. So 21,000 of export sales in May, okay. I thought like it was closer to 35,000. I don't know why, but maybe I read some articles on Interfax, something like this about 35,000 export in poultry. So that's why I kind of -- I was a bit confused. So yes, thank you for the clarification actually. And my last question on the situation with bank loans. So you have some short-term debt facilities in the capital structure, approximately...
Yes, we have the short-term facility around [ $150 million ]. But we prolongate these facilities, yes. But we prolongate this facility, yes.
Okay. And the company still apply?
What?
Bank interest rate on this -- so like...
Yes. [indiscernible] still interest rate, but, yes, interest rate is not comparable with coupon. Yes, significantly low entry, if you understand.
And when you extend these bank facilities with bank lenders, PIs or what like the import of the company standards, are there like additional pledges on et cetera. So what did...
Yes. MHP is a very good client. It's one of the most reliable clients in Ukraine, and that is why the banks did not require any additional payment or any additional pledge, no.
That is great. That is great. Thank you very much for the color.
Our next question comes from [ Mr. Karl Nightly from Knighthead Capital Management ].
I wanted to dive into the cash balance. So you noted that cash is currently at $200 million. And I believe the last figures provided were estimates of $130 million to $150 million for the end of May. I was curious how we can bridge from $130 million to $150 million to $200 million currently?
To be honest, yes, and this is the case. Yes. I know that when we talk about our forecast on April, it seems to me where we -- the trial, we did not understand our situation with export and especially export poultry and export oil, and we build very conservative our forecast at that time. And this is maybe the main reason why now is the better -- is the higher liquidity position.
Okay. And so for June, July and August, I guess if we think about the sowing campaign versus the EBITDA generation, can you forecast whether you'll be free cash flow positive or negative for those months?
No. Yes, I cannot say exactly because we had some investment in sowing campaign, winter sowing campaign. Maybe you understand is there's a lot of problem and difficult regarding fertilizer. And now in out now in June -- in May, we bought some fertilizer for new sowing campaigns. Yes. And this is why I'm sure that since, yes, we will see that we should have positive cash flow in September mostly in September, maybe as close to the August -- yes, but anyway, it's very difficult to predict, but in September maybe.
Okay. So that would imply that you will be cash flow negative for the next few months and turn positive in September?
Sorry? Please repeat.
Will you be free cash flow negative for the next few months until September when cash flow will be positive?
Yes, yes, yes. So maybe it is not huge negative, but I think that is a negative. When we see our forecast, yes, I think the negative.
Okay. And can you provide us an estimate for how much more free cash burn will occur? Just a high-level estimate. Like what is your lowest cash balance for the rest of the year?
It's a very good question. If you based on current situation with a lot of uncertainty, I think that as minimum as around 1 -- maybe $100 million or maybe $80 million.
Okay. So you will burn another $100 million in the next several months and still turn...
Yes, is the maximum, yes, what we see. Based on current situation, but you understand every day situation that may be unfortunate that there be changed significantly.
Okay. We have a few text questions that came in over the last few moments or so. Some of them, I'll try to group them together. Some of them are related specifically to the exports, and I'll read them out. Could you please comment on the current ability to export? Any details on export roots that are used? The second question, could you please comment on how poultry export volumes and prices developed thus far in Q2 '22? And the third question, what kind of impact are you seeing in exports due to the war and exports completely being halted in some countries or regions?
Thank you for the question, because it's thinking answer for the question but no problem. First of all, I would like to give you some picture, previously. Before the war, 70% of our exports of meat export was through Odesa, through our ports. 30%, it was export to Europe, and now when we speak about the total export, we continue to export to Europe. And we provide our export to MENA region and to CS country through Europe and port in Romania, mostly in Romania and port in Lithuania. Okay. Yes. Regarding sunflower oil, before war, 100% through Ukrainian ports. Now we try to export through Europe by a railway and through Romania by the [indiscernible] to Constanta Romania port. Do you understand our logistic rate?
Yes, yes. Is there anything else you'd like to add about that, about the export volumes?
About export volumes, I told, I cannot say just clear figures and exactly figures, for May for example, we exported 21,000 tonnes of meat. Last year, the same period, we exported 37,000 tonnes of meats, which is understandable this now we exported less.
We have another question about the EBRD loan. This is from Natalia from Dragon Capital. Congratulations on the $24 million loan. Could you please comment on the maturity of the loan and other trends?
Yes, maturity for 1 year with possibility for [indiscernible] plus 1.
We are seeing no further questions at this point. So I'll pass the line back to Viktoria, Anastasiya for your concluding remarks.
Thank you very much. Thank you very much, everybody. That was a good call. Thank you very much for your questions. And of course, in case you need other clarifications. And in case you want to raise other questions, we're here to help you. Please approach us and of course, have a lot of good day. Thank you, and goodbye.
Thank you. This concludes our call.
Okay. Thank you very much. Thank you. Bye.
Thank you. This concludes our call. We'll now be closing all the lines. Thank you very much.