Good
morning,
and
welcome
to
the
RHI
Magnesita
FY 2021
Results
Call.
My
name
is
Adam,
and
I'll
be
your
operator
today.
[Operator Instructions]
I'll
now hand
you
over
to
Stefan
Borgas
to
begin.
So,
Stefan,
please
go
ahead
when
you
are
ready.
S
Stefan Borgas
Thank
you
very
much.
Good
morning,
ladies
and
gentlemen,
from
Vienna.
These
are
interesting
times.
2021
was
quite
a
remarkable
year.
After
the
corona
crisis,
we
thought
that
we
were
going to
come
into
stable
waters,
but
that
wasn't
the
case.
We're
going to
explain
to
you
why.
Now,
2022
is
starting,
and
we
were
thinking
that
the
post-corona
supply
chain
problems
are
finally
under
control
and
we
were
coming
into
stable
waters.
And
yet
again,
we're
getting
surprised
by
global
volatility.
This
is
probably
the
topic
we
need
all
to
get
used
to.
Volatility
is
here
to
stay.
We
don't
know
what
will
hit
us,
but
certainly
for
the
time
being,
we
have
to
be
very
reactive.
So,
let
me,
without
any
further
delay,
give
you
the
summary
of
2021.
2021
was
a
year
of
very
strong
customer
demand.
Our
market
shares
could
recover
on
top
of
the
buoyant
and
very
strong
growth
of
demand.
We
delivered
–
the
revenue
increase
was
very
strong.
We
delivered
the
price
increase
programs
that
we
had
to
deliver
because
of
a
massive
increase,
especially
in
supply
chain
cost.
Mainly,
this
was
seen
in
Q4.
We
had
unprecedented
supply
chain
challenges
as
a
basis
of
this.
We
decided
to
do
two
things,
of
course;
pass
the
cost
onto
our
customers.
This
worked
quite
well
and
we
recovered
our
profitability
fully
by
the
end
of
the
year
in
the
fourth
quarter.
But
we
also
decided
to
significantly
increase
our
inventories
during
the
course
of
the
year
step-by-step
across
the
entire
chain.
Despite
all
this
disruptions,
we
also
progressed
our
strategic
transformation.
The
optimization
projects,
the
investment
projects
all
over
the
world
that
you
might
appreciate
also,
were
very
much
in
challenge
from
all
of
the
supply
chain
problems
from
our
suppliers
into
these
CapEx
projects.
But
we
could
also
sign
two
M&A
transactions,
one
in
Turkey
and
one
in
China,
that
shows
that
our
M&A
agenda
is
also
nicely
on the
way.
Let
me
point
out
on
the
next
slide
that
also
on
health
and
safety
side,
we
continue
to
be
very
stable.
This
is
a
core
value
for
us.
We
will
not
give
up
health
and
safety
of
our
employees.
Later
on
when
we
talk
about
Ukraine
and
Russia,
we
will
point
this
out
again.
This
is
at
the
top
priority
of
what
we
do.
Plants
are
operating
at
full
capacity.
Employees
are
stressed.
We
have
to
give
them
a
huge
thanks
for
all
of
the
engagement
that
they
showed
during
2021.
And
despite
this,
accident
rates
remained
at
a
very
low
level.
Let
me
give
you
the
financial
highlights.
Our
revenue
grew
very
strongly
by
16%
in
the
year.
Our
profitability
recovered,
although
relatively
late
in
the
year,
but
recovered
very
nicely.
We
could
deliver
the
year
within
the
guidance
that
we
gave
in
the
middle
of
the
year.
Most
importantly
is
that
our
margins
in
the
fourth
quarter
of
the
year
are
back
to
the
target
margins
of
around
12%
EBITA
that
we
want
to
see
in
our
business
as
a
minimum.
The
gearing
went
up,
of
course.
This
is,
let
me
say,
not
a
big
area
of
concern,
because
the
entire
increase
of
the
gearing
is
strictly
linked
to
the
buildup
of
inventories
that
we
have.
So,
this
is
a
capital
that
we
have
employed
in
the
company
that
we
can
convert
into
cash
relatively
quickly.
In
these
times
of
uncertainty
with
Ukraine,
it
might
actually
turn
out
to
be
a
little
bit
of
an
advantage
to
have
good
inventory
levels
everywhere.
Let
me
go
into
the
different
parts
of
the
business.
The
Steel
Division
volume
growth
was
stronger
than
the
market
everywhere.
Overall,
our
margins
are
a
little
bit
down
because
of
the
cost
headwinds,
especially
from
freight
and
from
raw
material
costs.
But
this
is
very
much
due
to
skew
of
the
higher
cost,
of
course,
having
to
be
absorbed
by
us
before
the
material
makes
it
through
the
supply
chain
and
we
can
then invoice it
to
our
customers.
As
I
said
before,
in
the
fourth
quarter,
this
was
pretty
much
through
the
system.
If
we
look
at
the
Steel
Division
by
region,
we
can
see
that
in
those
markets
in
which we
still
see
growth
potential,
India,
China,
we
could
gain
very
nicely.
Also
in
Brazil,
where
we
had
some
recovery
to
do,
we
could
deliver
this
recovery.
The
US
volumes,
if
you
look
at
North
America
on
this
slide,
look
that
we
were
behind
the
market,
but
we
are
not
behind
the
market
there.
This
simply
has
to
do
with
the
fact
that
in
the
COVID
crisis,
the
blast
furnaces
were
moved
down
more,
and
they
recovered
faster
now,
compared
to
the
electric
arc
furnaces
and
the
blast
furnaces
we
have
traditionally
a
lower
market
share.
So,
that
doesn't
concern
us
at
all,
because
overall
the
market
share
was
kept
same
in
Europe.
In
our
Industrial
Division,
the
margins
are
flat
on
an
overall
basis,
again,
very
much
because
of
the
skew
in
the
cement
business
that
saw
a
very
strong
recovery.
But
the
profitability
really
only
improved
in
the
fourth
quarter.
Anyway,
the
cement
business
is
relatively
seasonal
in
the
fourth
and
in
the
first
quarter
of
each
year
because
of
the
repair
cycle
of
this
industry.
In
the
Industrial,
in
non-cement
business,
in
the
project
business,
we
don't
yet –
we
did
not
yet
see
a
strong
top
line
recovery.
That's
due
to
the
fact
that,
here,
the
project,
of
course,
take
a
little
bit
longer.
Our
order
book
in
this
business
is
very,
very
strong.
Last
topic
before
I
hand
over
to
Ian
is
on
sustainability.
As
you
are
hopefully
aware,
one
of
our
biggest
short-term
drivers
to
improve
our
CO2
footprint,
but
also
to
improve
the
sustainability,
the
environmental
sustainability
of
the
company
is
the
increase
of
raw
materials
that
comes
from
secondary
sources
on
the
breakouts
of
our
customers.
Here,
we
have
made
very,
very
good
progress.
And
we
give
you
on
this
slide
here
the
quarterly
development
in
order
to
show
what
the
velocity
is
in
this
particular
area.
We
have
linked
our
debt,
our
financing
to
ESG
criteria,
so
we're
very
serious
about
this.
We
are
–
no
one
in
the
industry
is
on
the
avenue
on
which
we
are
in
terms
of
recycling
and
in
terms
of
CO2
capture.
We
brought
you
an
example.
How
does
this
look
like?
Because
this
is
much
more
complicated
than
it
looks
at
first
glance.
Traditionally,
if
you
take
materials
that
come
from
the
breakouts
of
our
customers,
you
get
breaks,
you
get
new
finished
products
that
look
like
the
picture
on
the
left
here,
with
many
cracks.
And
this
is,
of
course,
a
problem
for
our
customer,
because
their
hot
metals
penetrate
into
these
cracks.
We
have
developed
a
technology
with
which
we
can
now
use
these
secondary
raw
materials.
And
the
end
products
that
we
make
from
those
look
exactly
like
products
that
come
from
virgin
material
from
the
mines,
as
you
can
see
here
on
the
right
side.
There
are,
in
general,
other
elements
of
R&D
that
make
very
good
progress.
We've
brought
another
example
here.
This is this
is
our
Magnano
product,
which
we
launched
in
the
Americas.
And
these
are
nano
graphite
coating
materials
that
we
can
implement
in
our
products.
And
the
result
of
this
is
that
the
energy
loss
for
our
customers
goes
down
quite
dramatically.
This
will
help
our
customers
to
save
energy
cost,
reduce
CO2
this
way,
and
of
course,
for
us,
eventually
it
will
count
on
our
Scope
3
emissions.
With
this,
I'm
at
the
end
of
the
overview
and
I'm
very
happy
to
hand
over
to
Ian.
I
Ian Botha
Thanks
very
much,
Stefan,
and
good
morning,
ladies
and
gentlemen.
I'll
now
provide
a
more
detailed
update
on
our
financial
performance
during
the
year.
Starting
with
the
profit
and
loss
statement,
we
delivered
adjusted
EBITA
of
€280
million,
which
was
at
the
bottom
end
of
our
guidance
range
of
€280
million
to
€310
million,
which
we
issued
at
the
time
of
our
third
quarter
trading
update.
Performance
within
the
guidance
range
was
dependent
on
the
successful
implementation
of
price
increases
and
there
being
no
further
increases
in
our
cost
of
production.
We
were
able
to
achieve
our
price
increase
target,
delivering
€127
million
of
benefits
in
the
2021
financial
year
against
the
target
of
€130
million.
However,
there
were
further
cost
increases
in
the
fourth
quarter,
which
eroded
this
benefit,
notably
in
freight,
in
purchased
raw
materials,
and
in
energy.
And
I'll
go
into
more
details
on
costs
later
on.
Our
adjusted
profit
after
tax
increased
by
35%
to
€222
million
as
the
2020
financial
year
was
impacted
by
adverse
foreign
exchange
movements
that
did
not
reoccur
in
2021.
The
board
has recommended
a
final
dividend
of
€1
per
share,
bringing
the
full-year
dividend
to
€1.50
per
share,
including
the
interim
dividend
paid
to
shareholders
in
the
second
half
of
last
year.
This
maintains
our
core
dividend
at
the
same
level
as
2020,
with
an
earnings
cover
ratio
of
3
times,
in
line
with
our
stated
policy.
Changing
the
slide,
revenue
increased
strongly
in
2021,
up
16%
in
constant
currency
terms
to
€2.55
billion.
Volumes
are
back
above
2019
levels.
And
in
addition,
we
delivered
some
market
share
gains
on
top
of
keeping
pace
with
the
general
volume
recovery
in
steel
and
other
industries.
This
has
been achieved
during a
year of significant
disruption
to global
supply chains,
but
also during
the
peak
year
of
our
internal
investment
program.
Many
of
our
sites
have
been
undergoing
significant
upgrades,
whilst
needing
to
run
at
very
high
levels
of
capacity
utilization
to
meet
the
strong
rebound
in
customer
demand.
The
price
increase
program,
which
delivered
€127
million
of
benefit,
was
heavily
weighted
towards
the
second
half
and
the
fourth
quarter
in
particular.
This
is
due
to
the
time
delay
in
realizing
the
benefit
of
higher
prices
after
they've
been
negotiated
and
agreed
with
customers.
The
strong
sales
volume
growth
translated
into
a
€79
million
benefit
at
an EBITA
level.
We
further
improved
our
profitability
with
the
strategic
measures,
adding
€36
million
from
cost
savings
and
€13
million
from
the
sales
initiatives
in
2021
on
top
of
the
benefits
delivered
in
2020.
You
can
see
€127
million
benefit
on
the
price
increase
program
flowing
directly
through
to
EBITA.
This
was,
however,
more
than
offset
by
the
cost
headwinds
we've
been
facing
totaling
€152
million.
Freight
increased
materially,
up
€68
million.
We
incurred
€69
million
of
additional
raw
material
costs
on
externally
purchased
raw
material.
Whilst
we
are
vertically
integrated
refractory
producer,
we
do
still
need
to
purchase
around
30%
of
our
magnesite-based
raw
material,
our
electro-fused
material,
and
all
other
non-magnesite
materials,
like
alumina-based
products.
On
the
positive
side,
operating
at
higher
volume
saw
a
€51
million
benefit
from
higher
fixed
cost
absorption.
Finally,
as
expected,
the
temporary
cost
savings
we
introduced
during
the
pandemic
in
2020, like
for
site
closures
and
the
short
time
working,
these
came
to
an
end
and
came
back
into
our
cost
base
in
2021
with
a
€43
million
impact
against
our
guidance
of
€40 million.
The
impact
of
the
cost
increases
largely
falls
on
our
refractory
margin,
which
weakened
to
7.8%,
whilst
the
contribution
of
our
raw
material
assets
increased
to
3.2%,
in
line
with
higher
market
prices
for
the
raw
materials
we
consume
internally.
As
Stefan
highlighted,
we
see
the
weak
refectory
margin
as
a
temporary
development.
We
restored
refectory
margins
in
the
fourth
quarter
of 2021
with
the
benefit
of
our
price
increase
program,
and
we
are
focused
on
preserving
this
in
2022.
Raw
material
prices
in
the
first
two
months
of
this
year
have
held
higher
levels
on
average
compared
to
2021,
and
we
are
capturing
this
benefit.
Looking
at
our
costs
in
a little
bit
more
detail.
Freight
is
one
of
the
largest
categories
of
cost
increases
and
increased
from
8%
of
our
cost
of
goods
sold
to
12%.
You
will
all
be
aware
of
the
very
difficult
conditions
in
the
freight
market
this
past
year,
with
spot
rates
on
average
over
200%
higher
year-on-year;
difficulty
getting
containers
and
only
35%
of
those
containers
actually
arriving
at
their
destination
on
schedule
is
down
from
around
80%
in
previous
periods.
The
energy
price
increase
is
another
well-publicized
feature
of
current
markets.
Our
energy
costs
increased
by
a
quarter
to
€187
million
in
2021,
much
of
that
in
the
fourth
quarter,
partly
offset
by
the
benefits
of
our
hedging
program.
Today,
our
key
exposures
are
to
natural
gas
and
power
prices
in
Europe,
and
to
oil
prices
globally.
Key
raw
material
prices
are
set
out
on
this
slide,
and
you
can
see
two
significant
step
increases
in
the
fourth
quarter
of 2020
and
the
fourth
quarter of
2021
that
together
contributed
to
the
$69
million
increase
in
raw
material
costs
year-on-year.
On
this
slide,
we
have
set
out
a
quarterly
view
to
demonstrate
the
success
of
our
price
increase
program
in
restoring
margins
to
a
more
acceptable
level
of
12.5%
in
the
fourth
quarter.
The
dip
that
you
can
see
in
the
third
quarter
is
due
to
the
impact
of
the
unscheduled
kiln
outage
at
Radenthein;
Radenthein
being
a
key
plant
for
the
production
of
high-margin
refractories
for
the
industrial
sector.
And
this
had
an
EBITA impact
of
€8
million
very
largely
in
the
third
quarter.
In
total,
we
went
through
four
rounds
of
price
increases
with
customers
in
2021.
And
this
increased
frequency
of
price
discussions
is
likely
to
remain
a
feature
of
our
industry
going
forwards,
at
least
for
so
long
as
the
current
cost
volatility
continues.
Moving
to
working
capital,
and
maintaining
continuity
of
supply
for
our
customers
came
at
the
cost
of
a
significant
increase
in
our
inventories,
which
increased
€0.5
billion
and
finished
the
year
at
€977
million.
This
was
partly
offset
by
the
increase
in
accounts
payable.
And
together,
these
contributed
to
an
increase
in
working
capital
to
€677
million,
up
just
over
€300 million
year-on-year.
In
the
chart
on
the
right,
you
can
see
that
much
of
the
increase
in
inventory
is
driven
by
higher
costs
of
€170
million
and
increased
activity
of
€125
million.
Some
of
the
increase
is
also
a
result
of
longer
transit
times
with
goods
on
the
water
or
held
up
in
port
congestion
for
a
longer
period.
Some
was
also
a
deliberate
action
on
our
part,
as
we've
shared
at
the
third
quarter
trading
update,
to
ensure
that
we
had
raw
material
available
to
see
us
through
the
Winter
Olympics
in
the
first
quarter
of
2022,
and
to
maintain
sufficient
stocks
throughout
our
supply
chain
to
ensure
continuity
of
our
own production
and,
importantly,
deliveries
to
our
customers,
we
increased
inventory.
We
do
expect
to
be
able
to
unwind
this
excess
inventory,
but
this
can
only
be
done
when
global
supply
chain
reliability
improves,
and
there is
no
sign
yet
of
that
happening.
We
are
operating
on
the
assumption
that
disruption
is
going
to
continue
in
2022
with
the
intention
of
releasing
inventory
as
soon
as
market
conditions
allow.
Turning
to
our
net
debt.
High
working
capital
is
the
main
reason
for
the
€430
million
increase
in
our
net
debt
to
end
the
year
just
over
€1
billion.
We
continue
to
benefit
from
significant
headroom
in
terms
of
available
liquidity,
which
is
€1.2
billion
on
the
31st
of
December.
We
refinanced
over €1
billion
of
debt
facilities
in
2021,
and
this
is
reflected
in
the
long-dated
maturity
profile
that
you
can
see
on
this
slide.
All
of
this
refinancing
was
ESG-linked,
consistent
with
our
sustainability
strategy.
Gearing
at
2.6
times
is
clearly
higher
than
our
target
range
of
0.5
to
1.5
times. And
we
expect
this
ratio
to
reduce
in
2022
towards
our
target
range,
as
we
passed
the
peak
of
CapEx
on
our
internal
investment
projects
and
as
our
EBITDA
increases
and
with
our
strategic
initiatives
and
organic
growth.
The
obvious
route
to
strengthen
the
balance
sheet
will
be
to
reduce
the
level
of
inventory.
But
as
I
said
on
the
previous
slide,
this
can
only
happen
when
the
global
supply
chain
returns
to
much
improved
levels
of
reliability.
And
with
that,
I'm
happy
to
hand
you
back
to
Stefan.
S
Stefan Borgas
Thanks,
Ian,
very
much.
Let
me
wrap
up
the
presentation
part
of
the
call
with
a
view
on
our
strategic
initiatives.
As
we
approach
2022,
we
can
see
that
we
are
behind
the
target
in
2022
of
our
strategic
initiatives.
This
is
almost
entirely
due
to
a
time
lag
triggered
by
the
COVID
year
and
a
half.
Of
course,
the
problem
that
we
couldn't
access
customers.
Therefore,
our
sales
initiatives
are
behind
for
over
a
year,
probably
in
some
cases
almost
two
years.
And,
of
course,
many
things
were
then
delayed
because
of
the
supply
chain
topics.
Good
news
is
that
we
can
raise
our
target
to
€110
million
that
we
can
gain
from
the
cost
savings
from
2023
onwards
after
the
projects
are
completed.
And
our
sales
initiatives
are
still
more
or
less
at
the
same
level
than
before.
Let
me
give
you
a
few
pictures,
so
that
you
can
see
that
your
money
is
really
delivering
something.
Here
is
the
new
plant
in
Hochfilzen
in
the
Tyrolean
Alps,
which
produces
now
probably
the
best
quality
of
dolomite
raw
materials
in
Europe,
also
at
larger
scale.
This
plant
is
fully
in
operation
and
is
working
quite
nicely.
On
the
next
picture,
you
can
see
the
new
tunnel
kiln
in
Urmitz
in
our
German
site
that
was
commissioned
in
the
fourth
quarter
of
this
year.
You
can
see
this
is
a
super
modern,
high-tech
piece
of
equipment
that
will
allow
us
to
significantly
increase
capacity
here,
consolidate
with
some
neighboring
sites,
and
therefore
deliver
the
benefits.
If
we
look
at
the
sales
strategies,
you
can
see
on
flow
control,
we
have
recovered
very
nicely
to
the
2019
levels.
The
solution
contracts
have
made
good
progress.
We
rebased
the
calculation
a
little
bit
here.
So,
therefore,
we've
given
you
the
last
three
years
and
you
can
see
the
progress
we've
made
here.
And
most
importantly,
in
India
and
in
China,
where
we
did
have
lower
market – or
where
we
still
have
lower
market
shares
than
in
other
parts
of
the
world,
we
made
very
good
progress.
These
two
geographies
now
make
up
around
18%
of
our
global
business
already.
As
a
example
for
this, we
have
bought
shares
in
a
company
in
China
and
together
with
our
partners,
we're
going to
build
a
new
plant.
This
is
already
fully
in
construction
in
Chongqing
in
China.
This
gives
us
access
to
a
different
geography
and
to
a
different
product
class.
And
in
Turkey,
on
the
next
slide,
you
can
see
that
the
agreement
to
buy
company
called
SÖRMAŞ
has
been
agreed
and
signed.
We
are
now
waiting
for
the
Turkish
antitrust
authorities
to
give
us
the clearance.
This
is
a
downstream
investment
for
us.
As
you
know,
in
Turkey,
we
are
already
producing
raw
materials.
We
would
very
much
like
to
keep
these
raw
materials
in
the
country,
expand
the
production
of
SÖRMAŞ
there
in
order
to
supply
the
strongly
growing
Turkish
market
with
local
production.
That's
the
target
here.
We
can,
hopefully,
take
this
over
as
soon
as
we
get
the
approval
from
the
antitrust
authorities
sometimes
over
the
course
of
the
next
months.
Yeah, let
me
summarize,
ladies
and
gentlemen.
RHI
Magnesita
takes
its
leadership
in
the
global
refractory
industry
very
seriously.
We
continue
our
strategic
transformation
despite
all
of
the
volatility
and
all
of
the
headwinds
that
we
experience
year
after
year
now,
and
it
looks
like
this
will
not
end
for
the
time
being.
Our
production
optimization
plan
is
close
to
completion.
We
will
continue
with
our
journey
to
strengthen
the
company
through
M&A,
especially
in
the
markets
that
are
attractive
for
us:
India
and
China.
We
are
also
the
sustainability
leader
in
the
refractory
industry.
We
are
well-positioned
for
a
global
decarbonization
in
the
long
run,
but
we're
also
reducing
CO2
already
in
the
short
run.
Nobody
in
the
industry
is
anywhere
closely
as
engaged
as
we
are
in
this
area.
And
last,
but
not
least,
we
are
the
innovation
and
technology
leader
in
the
market.
We're
not
forgetting
innovation
in
the
classical
refractory
technologies.
But
we're
also
adding
new
knowledge
and
new
innovation
in
the
area
of
recycling,
where
a
lot
can
still
be
done
in
order
to
upgrade
the
quality
of
the
raw
materials
that
come
from
the
breakout
of
our
customers.
And
finally,
the
heat
management
capabilities
of
RHI
Magnesita
are
unmatched.
Nobody
can
deliver
these
full,
complete
solutions
for
our
customers,
and
this
is
what
we're
continuing
to
build
out.
Our
customers
recognize
this.
That's
why
the
percentage
of
solution
business
in
our
portfolio
is
increasing
year
after
year.
Thank
you
very
much
for
listening.
And
now,
Ian
and
myself
are,
of
course,
very
happy
to
answer
your
questions.
[Operator Instructions]
Operator
Our
first
question
is
from
Mark
Davies
Jones
from
Stifel.
Mark,
your
line
is
now
open,
please
go
ahead.
M
Mark Davies Jones
Analyst, Stifel Nicolaus Europe Ltd.
Thanks
very
much.
Lots
going
on,
obviously.
So,
can
we
start
first
with
pricing
and
costs.
The
exit
run
rate
in
Q4
looks
much
healthier.
Looking
forward
to
2022,
obviously, we
get
that
full
run
rate
of
price
increases,
but
we
also
get
a
full
run
rate
of
higher
cost
levels.
So,
if
things
on
both
sides
stay
roughly
where
they
are,
is
there any
reason
why
that 12.5%
can't
be
sustained
or
built
on
in
2022
or
are
there
other
lagged
effects
coming
through
now?
S
Stefan Borgas
Mark,
the
big
challenge
now
in
2022
is
energy
costs.
This
has,
of
course,
dramatically
increased
starting
in the
fourth
quarter
already.
So,
we
have
some
of
these
costs
in
the
inventories
that
we
have.
But
it's
continuing,
of
course,
accelerated
now
by
what's
going
on
in
the
Ukraine.
I
saw
Brent
was
at $100
per
barrel
this
morning.
So,
that
will
continue.
And
this
is
the
same
order
of
magnitude
then
shipping
cost
was
last
year.
So,
we
cannot
sit
back.
I
think
I'm
quite
confident
that
we
can
maintain
the
margin
level
that
we
have
at
this
moment.
All
of
the
order
book
shows
this,
but
we
can't
sit
back.
In
a
little
bit
lower
level,
but
still
also
on
the
cost
side,
our
labor
costs
go
up
significantly.
We
have
about
three
times
the
salary
increases
this
year
that
we
experienced
in
past
years.
So,
that
has
some
effect
on
us
as
well.
It's
not
as
big
as
shipping
and
energy,
but
it's
there
to
be
managed.
So,
by
no
way
can
we
sit
back
and
relax.
M
Mark Davies Jones
Analyst, Stifel Nicolaus Europe Ltd.
Indeed.
And
perhaps
I
can
ask Ian
[ph]
if
we
can
have (00:28:37)
an
extended
period
of
higher
than
expected debt.
Can
you
just
remind
us
where
covenant
sits
and
how
comfortable
your
relationship
banks
are
with
running
those
debt
levels?
I
can
see
the
commercial
need
to
keep
inventory
and
keep
the
whole
system
moving,
but
is
that
something
you
got
backing
for?
I
Ian Botha
Mark, thank
you.
So,
our
debt
covenant
across
all
of
our
gross
debt
is
3.5
times.
That
3.5
times
is
calculated
excluding
the
IFRS 15
debt.
And
therefore,
on
an
equivalent
basis,
our
actual
figure
is
2.5
times.
And,
yes,
we
have
a
stable,
long-term
supportive
banking
syndicate
of
11
banks
weighted
towards
Austro-Germanic
banks
that
have
been
with
RHI
for
many,
many
years,
and
we
continue
to
count
on
their
support.
M
Mark Davies Jones
Analyst, Stifel Nicolaus Europe Ltd.
Excellent.
Thank
you.
And
if
I
can
just
do
one
third
one.
Any
potential
second
order
threats
from the
Russia/Ukraine
situation?
I
mean, have
you
looked
at
how
much
of
your
production
base
in
Europe
is
in
regions
that
are
entirely
dependent
on
Russian
gas
supply?
S
Stefan Borgas
So,
there
are
three
aspects
to
this
crisis.
The
first
one,
which
is
the
most
important
one,
I
think,
and
the
most
–
one
that we should
take
the
most
serious
is
the
people. We
have
employees
in
Ukraine
and
employees
in
Russia,
and
we
are
very
focused
on
trying
to
help
them,
especially
the
ones
living
in
Ukraine,
them
and
their
families.
This
is,
like
safety
and
health,
the
most
important
thing
that
we
need
to
take
care
of
now
in
the
next
days.
So,
we're
focused
on
this.
The
second
aspect
is
the
business
that
we
have
in
Ukraine
and
Russia.
It's
a
total
business
of
around
€90 million.
I
think
we
need
to
assume,
in
a
worst
case
scenario,
that
this
business
might
cease
during
2022
and
maybe
in
longer
term
as
well.
It
depends
on
sanctions,
on
many
things. It's
difficult
to
judge
this.
But
there's
big
production
interruptions
in
Ukraine
now.
And
if
sanctions
continue
to
escalate,
then
probably
we
cannot
deliver
very
much
into
Russia.
So,
that's
the
second
aspect.
It's
a
pity,
but
I
think
that's
about
the
extent
in
which
we
would
see
this.
This is
about
3.5%
of
our
turnover.
And
the
third
part
is
probably
the
issue
with
the
biggest
financial
impact
in
the
short
and
medium
term.
This
is
the
gas
supply
from
Russia,
especially
our
Austrian
raw
materials
plants
are
very
much
exposed. Hochfilzen
in
[ph]
Tyroliya
(00:31:28)
that
you
just
saw
has
the
ability
to
use
coal.
So,
we
could
switch
relatively
quickly
to
coal.
In
Austria,
60%
of
the
coal
also
comes
from
Russia.
But
here,
we
could
find
alternative
sources,
I
think,
relatively
quickly.
But
the
other
raw
material
plant
in Breitenau
is
entirely
dependent
on
gas.
Most
of
this
comes
from
Russia.
So
here,
this
is
rather
a
serious
situation.
We're
already
in
emergency
planning
and
we
have
to
see
how
this
develops.
I
think
this
is
a
risk,
but
it's
almost
impossible
to
forecast
this
at
this
moment
in time.
The
finished
goods
plant
in
Europe
could
probably
switch
to
liquid
gas
and
other
alternatives,
a
little
bit
easier,
because
also
the
consumption
is
not
so
high.
It
will
remain
a
challenge
also.
This
is
a
European
issue
or
an
issue
for
the
European
plants.
There
could
be
some
upside
if
Russian
imports
of
finished
products
of
steel,
copper,
things
like
that
cannot
happen
anymore.
This
will
strengthen
the
European
producers
and
the
Turkish
producers
and
other
producers.
So,
I
think
from
a
market
perspective,
we're
not
that
negative,
but
the
gas
supply
is
a
challenge
very
difficult
to
quantify
today.
We
were
more
relaxed
on
Friday,
when
we
wrote
this
RNS
and
Q&A,
and
then
acceleration
of
sanctions
happened
over
the
weekend.
So,
I
think
we
have
to
take
it
day-by-day
at
this
point.
M
Mark Davies Jones
Analyst, Stifel Nicolaus Europe Ltd.
Indeed.
Thank
you
very
much.
S
Stefan Borgas
Next
question,
please.
Operator
Nothing
further
in
the
queue
at
present.
[Operator Instructions]
We
have
a
question
from
Harry
Philips
of
Peel
Hunt.
Harry,
please
go
ahead.
H
Harry Philips
Analyst, Peel Hunt LLP
Good
morning,
everyone.
I
Ian Botha
Good
morning,
Harry.
H
Harry Philips
Analyst, Peel Hunt LLP
I
hope
everyone
is
keeping
their tin hats on.
Just
a
couple
of
questions,
please.
The
first
is
around
China
and
India,
which
is
already
up
to
18%
of
sales.
Just
how
say
– sorry,
there's a
horrible
echo
on
the
line.
In
five
years'
time,
say,
where
would
you
hope
they
ought
to
go
and
how
much
would
further
investment
would
you
need
to
put
into
the
regions
to
facilitate
that?
And
then
the
second
is
around
solutions.
You've
given
us
the
chart,
which
is
very
helpful,
but
is
the
40%
target
still
readily
achievable
in...
[audio gap]
(00:34:23-00:34:33)
S
Stefan Borgas
...China
and
India
for
2025
or
so,
because
it
doesn't
make
sense.
In
China,
much
depends
on
consolidation,
on
industry
consolidation.
It
is
quite
encouraging
what
is
happening
there.
So,
I
think
we
can
continue
on
this
path.
And
in
India,
this
is
very
much
a
matter
of
the
growth
of
the
Indian
market.
The
Indian
market
is
really
the
only
big,
large
scale
market
in
the
world
that
is
growing.
We
have
a
good
position,
but
here
this
is
a
matter
of
investing
into
capacities
through
intelligent
combination
of
plant
expansions,
but
also
some
targeted
acquisition.
So,
this
percentage,
I
believe,
will
easily
surpass the
20%
of
the
share
of
wallet,
but
how
far
it
would
go
I'd
rather
not
make
any
predictions
now.
The
solutions
percentage
of
40%
is
ambitious.
We,
obviously,
need
some
exponential
growth
in
order
to
do
this.
But
it
is
also
supported
by
a
lot
of
new
digital
products
that
will
complement
our
traditional
offering,
and
they
are
only
coming
to
the
market
now
in
the
next
one
or
two
years.
And
then,
the
growth,
of
course,
comes
thereafter.
So,
the
40%
is
still
in
reach.
We
don't
want
to
give
this
up,
but
I
acknowledge
it's
ambitious.
Maybe
it'll
take
a
couple
years
longer,
depends
on
how
well
our
customers
will
accept
these
new
total
solutions.
By
the
way,
also
the
recycling
of
the
breakout
materials
makes
a
big
part
of
the
solutions
potential.
H
Harry Philips
Analyst, Peel Hunt LLP
Got
it.
And
that
sort
of
leads
really
onto
my
next
question,
which
is
the
whole
sort
of
greenfield
sustainability,
how
recycling
fits
into
that.
You
have
the
SSAB
announcement
a
couple
of
weeks
ago –
three
weeks
ago,
where
electric
arc
is
being
brought
on
stream
and
a
new
look
at
the
new
capacity
coming
on
stream
in
North
America
and
huge
buff,
almost
total
dominance
around
electric
arc.
And
just
how
you
sort
of
deploy
your
strategy
around
those
dynamics.
S
Stefan Borgas
Yeah.
So,
the
electric
arc
furnace,
of
course,
is
the
sweet
spot
for
us.
This
is
a
magnesite-dominated
refractory
environment.
We
have
a
huge
technology
leadership
in
this
area.
Our
market
share
in
the
electric
arc
is
much
higher
than
in
the
blast
furnace,
as
you
could
see
in
the
2021
US
numbers,
as
I've
explained
before.
So,
this
is
quite
good
for
us.
This
should
give
us
above
average
growth
opportunities
here.
There
are
two
other
elements
to
the
decarbonization
of
our
customers.
One
is
the
refractory
materials
that
help
them
to
save
energy,
like
the
Magnano
that
I
talked
about
in
my
presentation,
like
better
measurement
of
energy
efficiency
of
refractories
and
all
the
things
around
heat
loss
there
at
the
customer
and,
of
course, the
recycling,
because
this
is
a
clear
reduction
of
Scope
3
CO2
cost
for
our
customers.
If
we
look
at
the
electric
arc
furnace
environment
before
and
after
decarbonization,
today,
the
CO2
emissions
attributable
to
refractories
are
about
3%,
3.5%
from
the
perspective
of
a
steel
company.
So,
it's
not
that
big,
and
therefore
not
so
much
in
the
prime
focus.
Once
a
steel
plant
is
converted
to
a
green
electric
arc
furnace
environment
with
hydrogen
reduction
rather
than oxygen
plants,
then
the
percentage
of
CO2
attributed
to
the
refractories
will
go
up
to
15%
to
20%.
And
at
that
point
in
time,
it's
very
important
that
the
refractories
are
low
carbon
products
as
well,
because
we
will
be
very
high
on
the
radar.
And
that's
what
we're
working
towards,
so
that
we
have
these
solutions
in
place
before
the
situation
arises.
H
Harry Philips
Analyst, Peel Hunt LLP
And
in
terms
of
the
customer
sort
of
response
to
that
or
whatever,
just
how
– are
they
driving
it
very
hard
themselves
and
sort
of
aligning
with
yourselves
to
produce
solutions
or
are you
– is
it
still
one
way
you're
bringing
solutions
to
the
customers
or
how
is
that
dynamic
working
at
the moment
in time?
S
Stefan Borgas
It
depends
on
the
individual
customers.
We
have
very
advanced
customers
who
are
pushing
the
envelope
on
every
aspect
that
they
can.
And
here,
of
course,
we
have
big
open
arms
oncoming
with
our
own
solutions,
mostly
towards
what
helps
them
directly
in
their
own
Scope
1.
So
that
works.
But
there's
a
customer
segment
still
also
out
there
that
is
not
very
much
focused
on
this,
and
they
want
low-cost
refractories,
period,
and
not
yet
pay
any
premium
for
green
products.
This
exists
as
well.
But
this
is
shifting
even
in
markets
like
India,
where
decarbonization
wasn't
that
big
on
the
agenda
until
very
recently,
this
is
starting
to
change.
So,
there,
also
we
see
the
leading
companies
pushing
for
these
kind
of
solutions.
Surprisingly,
in
the
US,
of
course,
because
of
the
push
towards
EAF,
the
interest
is
very,
very
high.
In
Europe,
it's
mixed.
In
South
America,
it's
not
yet
so
strong
with
the
exception
of Gerdau, who
is
super
advanced
and
very
focused
and
very
visionary
in
this
area.
And
in
the
rest
of
Asia,
I
think
it's
quite
mixed
also.
In
China
also,
there
are
quite
some
customers
who
are
super
engaged
in
all
of
the
circular
economy
area
and
also
in
these
innovative
products
that
help
them
to
save
energy,
and therewith
CO2.
H
Harry Philips
Analyst, Peel Hunt LLP
Okay.
And
one
very
last
question,
just
around
pricing
into
the
current
year.
I
mean,
clearly,
the
realization
in
Q4
was
tremendous.
But
with
–
as
you
say
cost
going
higher
and
what
have
you,
I
mean,
price
increases
already
going
through
and
you
sort
of
feel
reasonably
happy
that
your
action
and
sort
of
environment
around
that
is
quite
stable
in
terms
of
how
you
manage
it.
S
Stefan Borgas
Yeah.
So, from
everything
that
we
can
see
now
for
the
first
quarter –
when
I
say
everything,
we
can
see
all
the
cost
increases
that
we
can
see
and
that
we
can
list
in
the
first
quarter –
things
look
quite
solid.
I
have
to
say
that
our
sales
force
has
done
a
tremendous
job
here
to
change,
also
change
the
way
we
look
at
price
management.
This
always
in
our
industry
used
to
be
a
project
planning
and
implementing
a
price
increase.
This
is
not
a
project
anymore now.
This
is
part
of
ongoing
operational
everyday
business,
because
the
volatility
has
so
dramatically
increased
and
our
customers
have
accepted
this.
Our
customers
are
attributing
a
much,
much
bigger
emphasis
on
supply
security
than
on
pricing
only.
At
least
most
of
them,
I
have
to
say.
This
is
the
reason
why
we
decided
to
invest
into
inventory,
because
this
is
the
quid
pro
quo.
So,
first
quarter
looks
quite
good.
Second
quarter,
I
would
say
we
can
be
reasonably
confident
as
well.
But
this comment
I
make
without
knowing
what
will
happen,
especially
on
the
energy
cost,
especially
in
Europe.
Ian,
anything
to
add?
I
Ian Botha
I
think
that
the
key
sensitivity
that
we
have
is
around
energy, energy
costs.
And
as
we've
spoken
before,
our
hedging
program
extends
well
into
2022.
So,
we
–
around
two-thirds
of
our
energy
cost
is
hedged.
The
key
exposure
that
we
really
have
is
European
gas,
European
electricity,
as
well
as
oil
on
a
global
basis.
And
that
really
starts
to
impact
us
from
the
end
of
the
second
quarter
into
the
second
half
of
this
year.
So,
price
increases
are
going
to
be
important
for
us
to
maintain
the
margins
we
established
in
the fourth
quarter.
H
Harry Philips
Analyst, Peel Hunt LLP
Fantastic.
Thanks
very
much,
indeed.
S
Stefan Borgas
Thanks,
Harry.
Do
we
have
another
question?
Operator
We
do,
from
Dom
Convey
at
Numis.
Dom,
your
line
is
open.
D
Dominic Convey
Analyst, Numis Securities Ltd.
Good
morning,
both.
Thanks
for taking
the
question.
Just
want to
follow-up
on
Harry's,
if
I
may,
specifically
with
regard
to
the
pricing
dynamic
and
if
we
think
about
the
EBITA
bridge
for
2022.
Apologies
if
I
may have
missed
it,
but
have
you
given
the
equivalent
figure
to
that
€130
million
price
increase
target
that
you
had
for
last
year?
What
would
the
equivalent
number
be this
year
in
order
to
maintain
those
margins
at
the
12.5%
Q4
exit
rate?
S
Stefan Borgas
Ian,
do
you
want
to...?
I
Ian Botha
Yeah.
Dom,
thanks for
the
question.
So,
we've
intentionally
not
given
that
guidance
at
this
point
because
of
the
uncertainty
around
the
cost
pressures
around
energy
and
non-magnesite-based
raw
materials.
But
if
you
go
back
to
an
EBIT
bridge
and
the
building
blocks
for
2022,
our
margin
of
12.5%
in
the
fourth
quarter
last
year
did
benefit
from
a
strong
cement
season.
So,
if
you
extend
the
period
and perhaps
look
at
the
second
half,
which
is
£150
million
of
EBITA,
you
double
that
up.
You
take
into
account
the
strategic
initiatives,
which
are
targeting
to
deliver
around
£35
million
of
incremental
EBITA,
and
the
fact
that
there
may
be
some
modest
2%,
3%
volume
growth
during
the
course
of
the
year,
you
get
the
key
building
blocks
for
our
2022
EBITA.
D
Dominic Convey
Analyst, Numis Securities Ltd.
That's
very
clear.
Thanks,
Ian.
[Operator Instructions]
Operator
Next
question
from
Mark
Fielding
at
RBC.
Mark,
your
line
is
open.
M
Mark Fielding
Analyst, RBC Europe Ltd.
Morning.
S
Stefan Borgas
Good
morning,
Mark.
M
Mark Fielding
Analyst, RBC Europe Ltd.
You
actually
touched
on
the
question
I
was
going
to ask
and
[ph]
that
answer
(00:45:53) was
I
was
curious
as
you've
talked
about
the
Q4
sort
of
12.5%
benchmark.
Just
– I mean,
[indiscernible]
(00:46:00)
flagged
seasonality,
but
what
is
the
normal
quarterly
seasonality
in
the
first half,
because
I'm not
sure
we've
had
a
normal
year
in
the
last
three
or
four
years?
S
Stefan Borgas
Yeah.
M
Mark Fielding
Analyst, RBC Europe Ltd.
So,
cement
is,
obviously,
stronger
generally
later
in
the
year
and
in
Q1.
How
do
we
think
about
margin
seasonality
through
the
year
in
this
business
in
general?
S
Stefan Borgas
Yeah.
There's
not
so
much
margin
seasonality,
at
least
from
a
demand
perspective,
but
more
revenue
seasonality,
and
that
comes
almost
entirely
from
the
cement
business.
The
cement
customers,
they
buy
our
materials
usually at
the
end
of
the
fourth
quarter
and
in
the
first
quarter
in
order
to
repair
their
kilns.
This
is
in
the
northern
hemisphere
where
most
of
the
customers
are.
Why?
Because
in
the
winter,
many
kilns
are
shut
down,
and
then
before
they
start
again
with
the
start
of
the
construction
season,
they
use
the
refractories in
order to
prepare
the
kilns
for
a
restart.
This
is
the
reason
for
this
seasonality.
It
looks
like
this
year,
the
cement
kilns
have
run
a
little
longer
in
2021,
and
the
shutdown
is
a
little
bit
late.
So,
it
might
–
we
might
have
the
peak
month
in
April
rather
in
March.
That's
how
it
looks
like.
But
this
is
the
season.
And
then
the
third
and
the
second
quarter
usually
are
a
little bit
weaker,
because
we
have
very
little
cement
sales
during
this
time.
And
then,
in
the
fourth
quarter,
it
picks
back
up.
This
is
the
seasonality.
Does
that
answer
your
question?
But
the
margins
are
more
or
less
the
same
from
one
quarter
to
another.
M
Mark Fielding
Analyst, RBC Europe Ltd.
Great.
Thank
you.
Operator
Next
question
is
from
[ph]
Neeraj
Prakash
from Whiteside Capital.
Neeraj (00:47:53),
go
ahead.
U
Yeah,
hi.
Thanks
for
taking
my
questions.
So,
first,
just
wanted
to understand
the
strategic
thinking
behind
choosing
India
as
a
manufacturing
hub
versus
other
countries
like
China,
Mexico,
or
directly
the
Middle
East,
which
is
where
you're
going
to be
currently
exporting
your
products
from
India.
S
Stefan Borgas
Yeah.
So,
the
main
manufacturing
purpose
of
India
is
India
for
India.
Why?
Because
the
growth
of
the
Indian
market,
of
course,
is
very
strong.
This
is
a
5%,
6%
growth
environment
for
refractories.
The
Indian
refractory
production,
there
are
– the
Indian
refractory
sales
have
a
lot
relied
on
imports
over
the
course
of
the
last
20 years,
not
just
for
RHI
Magnesita,
but
for
the
industry
as
a
whole.
And
part
of
the
Modi
government
induced
Make in
India
initiative
asks
us
to
domesticize
a
lot
of
this
imported
production.
Specifically,
this
means
we're
moving
production
from
China
to
India,
while
at
the
same
time
the
Indian
demand
grows
quite
significantly.
And
that's
why
there's
a
significant
manufacturing
increase
in
India
going
on
in
the
refractory
industry.
That's
the
background.
India
then,
and
why
has
this
been
the
case?
This
has
been
the
case
because
many
raw
materials
are
just
simply
not
available
in
India.
They're
just
not
in
the
geologies,
but this
fault is just
the
fate
of
nature.
So,
that's
why
there
has
been
this
strong
import
of
finished
goods,
but
with
the
maturing
of
the
industry,
now
we
can
import
raw
materials
to
a
larger
extent
than
in
the
past
and
make
the
finished
goods
there.
With
respect
to
the
Middle
East,
we
have
been
serving
the
Middle
East
mostly
from
India
and
Europe
also
because
of
the
proximity.
In
the
future –
and
this
is
one
of
the
reasons
for
our
strong
investment
and
interest
in
Turkey.
We
want
to
shift
some
of
this
production
to
Turkey
simply
for
proximity
reasons.
You
might
know
that
one
of
the
major
drivers
for
our
big
investment
project
is
that
we
want
to
have
a
more
regionalized
supply
chain.
That's
part
of
this.
So,
India
for
India,
Turkey
for
Turkey
and
Middle
East,
Europe
for
Europe,
China
for
China,
and
so
on.
Does
that
make
sense?
U
Sure.
This
is
a
follow-up
on
that. What
do
the
incremental
unit
economics
look
like
for
the
€42
million
CapEx
that
has
been
laid
out
for
the
Indian
entity?
And
what
kind
of revenues
can
we
expected
or
margin
profile?
And
do
we
see
Indian
as
a
percent
of
the
overall
revenue
and
– becoming
a
significant
chunk,
i.e.,
it's about
like
10%,
I think, you mentioned in
the presentation.
Do
we
see
that
increasing
exponentially
over
time?
S
Stefan Borgas
For
sure,
this
will
increase,
yes,
for
sure.
Ian, can
we
answer
the
incremental
revenue?
I
don't
think
we
have
this.
I
Ian Botha
We
haven't
shared
that
information...
S
Stefan Borgas
Yeah.
I
Ian Botha
...at
this
point.
Certainly,
we
are
expecting
to
see
further
margin
growth
in
the
business
supported
by
that
CapEx
investment
to
drive
domestic
production.
S
Stefan Borgas
The
India
margins
are
not
yet
at
the
same
level
than
in
some
other
regions.
So,
there
is
a
bit
of
a
challenge
there.
It's
part
of
growth
and
part
of
pricing
pass-through
dynamic,
so
some
of
this
is
short
term.
But,
for
sure,
the
production
and
the
share
of
revenue
on
group
will
continue
to
increase.
U
Sure.
Yeah.
The
context
of
this
was
just
trying
to
understand
how
this
would
be
accretive
to
overall
corporate
margins
at
a
global
level,
because
we
do
understand
that
the
Indian
entity
itself
has
about
16%,
17%
plus
sort
of
EBITA
margins
because
of
the
labor
cost,
arbitrage,
and
the
efficiencies.
So,
just
trying
to understand
as we
[ph]
cater to an (00:52:00)
export
base
and
India
for
India
as
well,
on
a
overall
RHI
global
level,
what
type
of
marginalization
can
one
expect
in
a
ballpark
level
three
to
five
years
from
today?
S
Stefan Borgas
Yeah,
okay.
We
haven't
shared
this
yet.
It's
a
complicated
calculation.
U
Sure.
If
I
could
just
squeeze
one
last
one
in.
Any
view
on
the
market
cap
and the
valuation
of
the
global
entity?
We
understand
it's
a
$1.8
billion
sort
of
market
cap.
But
if
you
look
at
the
Indian
entity,
which
is
a
pretty
small
part
of
the
overall
pie
right
now,
that
itself
is
being
valued
at
$1
billion-plus.
Any
sort
of
thoughts
on
this?
S
Stefan Borgas
We're
very
happy
about
the
strong
recognition
of
Indian
investors of
our
business
there.
So, I
think
that's
the
first
thought.
I
think
it's
a
bit
due
to
the
difference
of
valuations
in
the
different
market.
Otherwise,
Ian,
any
thoughts?
I
Ian Botha
I
think
that
we
continue
to
believe
that
the
RHI
Magnesita
group
share
price
is
trading
on
a
undemanding
multiple.
And
clearly,
as
we
deliver
on
our
strategic
initiatives
as
we
retain
the
margins
that
we've
established
to
the
back
end
of
last
year,
hopefully
those
will
be
supportive
for
our
share
price.
But
our
focus
as
a
management
team
is
delivery.
U
Sure.
Thank
you
so
much
for
taking
my
questions.
Thanks
a
lot.
S
Stefan Borgas
Any
more
questions?
[Operator Instructions]
Operator
As
we
have no
further
questions,
I'll
hand
back
to
the
management
team
for
any
closing
remarks.
S
Stefan Borgas
Thank
you
very
much,
ladies
and
gentlemen,
for
dialing
in
this
morning.
Thanks
for
your
interest.
Let's
stand
together
to
see
what
happens
now
here
in
Europe
or,
more
specifically,
in
Ukraine.
We
will
do
our
best
to
mitigate
these
events.
And,
of
course,
we
will
keep
you
informed
with
every
step
we
take
and
with
every
element
that
influences
us.
Thank
you
for
dialing
in
and
have
a
good
day.
I
Ian Botha
Thank
you,
all.
Goodbye.
Operator
This
concludes
today's
call.
Thank
you
very
much
for
your
attendance.
You
may
now
disconnect
your
lines.
Good morning, and welcome to the RHI Magnesita FY 2021 Results Call. My name is Adam, and I'll be your operator today. [Operator Instructions]
I'll now hand you over to Stefan Borgas to begin. So, Stefan, please go ahead when you are ready.
Thank you very much. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, from Vienna. These are interesting times. 2021 was quite a remarkable year. After the corona crisis, we thought that we were going to come into stable waters, but that wasn't the case. We're going to explain to you why.
Now, 2022 is starting, and we were thinking that the post-corona supply chain problems are finally under control and we were coming into stable waters. And yet again, we're getting surprised by global volatility. This is probably the topic we need all to get used to. Volatility is here to stay. We don't know what will hit us, but certainly for the time being, we have to be very reactive.
So, let me, without any further delay, give you the summary of 2021. 2021 was a year of very strong customer demand. Our market shares could recover on top of the buoyant and very strong growth of demand. We delivered – the revenue increase was very strong. We delivered the price increase programs that we had to deliver because of a massive increase, especially in supply chain cost.
Mainly, this was seen in Q4. We had unprecedented supply chain challenges as a basis of this. We decided to do two things, of course; pass the cost onto our customers. This worked quite well and we recovered our profitability fully by the end of the year in the fourth quarter. But we also decided to significantly increase our inventories during the course of the year step-by-step across the entire chain.
Despite all this disruptions, we also progressed our strategic transformation. The optimization projects, the investment projects all over the world that you might appreciate also, were very much in challenge from all of the supply chain problems from our suppliers into these CapEx projects. But we could also sign two M&A transactions, one in Turkey and one in China, that shows that our M&A agenda is also nicely on the way.
Let me point out on the next slide that also on health and safety side, we continue to be very stable. This is a core value for us. We will not give up health and safety of our employees. Later on when we talk about Ukraine and Russia, we will point this out again. This is at the top priority of what we do. Plants are operating at full capacity. Employees are stressed. We have to give them a huge thanks for all of the engagement that they showed during 2021. And despite this, accident rates remained at a very low level.
Let me give you the financial highlights. Our revenue grew very strongly by 16% in the year. Our profitability recovered, although relatively late in the year, but recovered very nicely. We could deliver the year within the guidance that we gave in the middle of the year. Most importantly is that our margins in the fourth quarter of the year are back to the target margins of around 12% EBITA that we want to see in our business as a minimum.
The gearing went up, of course. This is, let me say, not a big area of concern, because the entire increase of the gearing is strictly linked to the buildup of inventories that we have. So, this is a capital that we have employed in the company that we can convert into cash relatively quickly. In these times of uncertainty with Ukraine, it might actually turn out to be a little bit of an advantage to have good inventory levels everywhere.
Let me go into the different parts of the business. The Steel Division volume growth was stronger than the market everywhere. Overall, our margins are a little bit down because of the cost headwinds, especially from freight and from raw material costs. But this is very much due to skew of the higher cost, of course, having to be absorbed by us before the material makes it through the supply chain and we can then invoice it to our customers. As I said before, in the fourth quarter, this was pretty much through the system.
If we look at the Steel Division by region, we can see that in those markets in which we still see growth potential, India, China, we could gain very nicely. Also in Brazil, where we had some recovery to do, we could deliver this recovery.
The US volumes, if you look at North America on this slide, look that we were behind the market, but we are not behind the market there. This simply has to do with the fact that in the COVID crisis, the blast furnaces were moved down more, and they recovered faster now, compared to the electric arc furnaces and the blast furnaces we have traditionally a lower market share. So, that doesn't concern us at all, because overall the market share was kept same in Europe.
In our Industrial Division, the margins are flat on an overall basis, again, very much because of the skew in the cement business that saw a very strong recovery. But the profitability really only improved in the fourth quarter. Anyway, the cement business is relatively seasonal in the fourth and in the first quarter of each year because of the repair cycle of this industry.
In the Industrial, in non-cement business, in the project business, we don't yet – we did not yet see a strong top line recovery. That's due to the fact that, here, the project, of course, take a little bit longer. Our order book in this business is very, very strong.
Last topic before I hand over to Ian is on sustainability. As you are hopefully aware, one of our biggest short-term drivers to improve our CO2 footprint, but also to improve the sustainability, the environmental sustainability of the company is the increase of raw materials that comes from secondary sources on the breakouts of our customers.
Here, we have made very, very good progress. And we give you on this slide here the quarterly development in order to show what the velocity is in this particular area. We have linked our debt, our financing to ESG criteria, so we're very serious about this. We are – no one in the industry is on the avenue on which we are in terms of recycling and in terms of CO2 capture.
We brought you an example. How does this look like? Because this is much more complicated than it looks at first glance. Traditionally, if you take materials that come from the breakouts of our customers, you get breaks, you get new finished products that look like the picture on the left here, with many cracks. And this is, of course, a problem for our customer, because their hot metals penetrate into these cracks.
We have developed a technology with which we can now use these secondary raw materials. And the end products that we make from those look exactly like products that come from virgin material from the mines, as you can see here on the right side.
There are, in general, other elements of R&D that make very good progress. We've brought another example here. This is this is our Magnano product, which we launched in the Americas. And these are nano graphite coating materials that we can implement in our products. And the result of this is that the energy loss for our customers goes down quite dramatically. This will help our customers to save energy cost, reduce CO2 this way, and of course, for us, eventually it will count on our Scope 3 emissions.
With this, I'm at the end of the overview and I'm very happy to hand over to Ian.
Thanks very much, Stefan, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I'll now provide a more detailed update on our financial performance during the year.
Starting with the profit and loss statement, we delivered adjusted EBITA of €280 million, which was at the bottom end of our guidance range of €280 million to €310 million, which we issued at the time of our third quarter trading update. Performance within the guidance range was dependent on the successful implementation of price increases and there being no further increases in our cost of production.
We were able to achieve our price increase target, delivering €127 million of benefits in the 2021 financial year against the target of €130 million. However, there were further cost increases in the fourth quarter, which eroded this benefit, notably in freight, in purchased raw materials, and in energy. And I'll go into more details on costs later on.
Our adjusted profit after tax increased by 35% to €222 million as the 2020 financial year was impacted by adverse foreign exchange movements that did not reoccur in 2021. The board has recommended a final dividend of €1 per share, bringing the full-year dividend to €1.50 per share, including the interim dividend paid to shareholders in the second half of last year. This maintains our core dividend at the same level as 2020, with an earnings cover ratio of 3 times, in line with our stated policy.
Changing the slide, revenue increased strongly in 2021, up 16% in constant currency terms to €2.55 billion. Volumes are back above 2019 levels. And in addition, we delivered some market share gains on top of keeping pace with the general volume recovery in steel and other industries.
This has been achieved during a year of significant disruption to global supply chains, but also during the peak year of our internal investment program. Many of our sites have been undergoing significant upgrades, whilst needing to run at very high levels of capacity utilization to meet the strong rebound in customer demand.
The price increase program, which delivered €127 million of benefit, was heavily weighted towards the second half and the fourth quarter in particular. This is due to the time delay in realizing the benefit of higher prices after they've been negotiated and agreed with customers.
The strong sales volume growth translated into a €79 million benefit at an EBITA level. We further improved our profitability with the strategic measures, adding €36 million from cost savings and €13 million from the sales initiatives in 2021 on top of the benefits delivered in 2020. You can see €127 million benefit on the price increase program flowing directly through to EBITA.
This was, however, more than offset by the cost headwinds we've been facing totaling €152 million. Freight increased materially, up €68 million. We incurred €69 million of additional raw material costs on externally purchased raw material.
Whilst we are vertically integrated refractory producer, we do still need to purchase around 30% of our magnesite-based raw material, our electro-fused material, and all other non-magnesite materials, like alumina-based products. On the positive side, operating at higher volume saw a €51 million benefit from higher fixed cost absorption.
Finally, as expected, the temporary cost savings we introduced during the pandemic in 2020, like for site closures and the short time working, these came to an end and came back into our cost base in 2021 with a €43 million impact against our guidance of €40 million.
The impact of the cost increases largely falls on our refractory margin, which weakened to 7.8%, whilst the contribution of our raw material assets increased to 3.2%, in line with higher market prices for the raw materials we consume internally.
As Stefan highlighted, we see the weak refectory margin as a temporary development. We restored refectory margins in the fourth quarter of 2021 with the benefit of our price increase program, and we are focused on preserving this in 2022. Raw material prices in the first two months of this year have held higher levels on average compared to 2021, and we are capturing this benefit.
Looking at our costs in a little bit more detail. Freight is one of the largest categories of cost increases and increased from 8% of our cost of goods sold to 12%. You will all be aware of the very difficult conditions in the freight market this past year, with spot rates on average over 200% higher year-on-year; difficulty getting containers and only 35% of those containers actually arriving at their destination on schedule is down from around 80% in previous periods.
The energy price increase is another well-publicized feature of current markets. Our energy costs increased by a quarter to €187 million in 2021, much of that in the fourth quarter, partly offset by the benefits of our hedging program. Today, our key exposures are to natural gas and power prices in Europe, and to oil prices globally.
Key raw material prices are set out on this slide, and you can see two significant step increases in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the fourth quarter of 2021 that together contributed to the $69 million increase in raw material costs year-on-year.
On this slide, we have set out a quarterly view to demonstrate the success of our price increase program in restoring margins to a more acceptable level of 12.5% in the fourth quarter. The dip that you can see in the third quarter is due to the impact of the unscheduled kiln outage at Radenthein; Radenthein being a key plant for the production of high-margin refractories for the industrial sector. And this had an EBITA impact of €8 million very largely in the third quarter.
In total, we went through four rounds of price increases with customers in 2021. And this increased frequency of price discussions is likely to remain a feature of our industry going forwards, at least for so long as the current cost volatility continues.
Moving to working capital, and maintaining continuity of supply for our customers came at the cost of a significant increase in our inventories, which increased €0.5 billion and finished the year at €977 million. This was partly offset by the increase in accounts payable. And together, these contributed to an increase in working capital to €677 million, up just over €300 million year-on-year.
In the chart on the right, you can see that much of the increase in inventory is driven by higher costs of €170 million and increased activity of €125 million. Some of the increase is also a result of longer transit times with goods on the water or held up in port congestion for a longer period.
Some was also a deliberate action on our part, as we've shared at the third quarter trading update, to ensure that we had raw material available to see us through the Winter Olympics in the first quarter of 2022, and to maintain sufficient stocks throughout our supply chain to ensure continuity of our own production and, importantly, deliveries to our customers, we increased inventory.
We do expect to be able to unwind this excess inventory, but this can only be done when global supply chain reliability improves, and there is no sign yet of that happening. We are operating on the assumption that disruption is going to continue in 2022 with the intention of releasing inventory as soon as market conditions allow.
Turning to our net debt. High working capital is the main reason for the €430 million increase in our net debt to end the year just over €1 billion. We continue to benefit from significant headroom in terms of available liquidity, which is €1.2 billion on the 31st of December. We refinanced over €1 billion of debt facilities in 2021, and this is reflected in the long-dated maturity profile that you can see on this slide. All of this refinancing was ESG-linked, consistent with our sustainability strategy.
Gearing at 2.6 times is clearly higher than our target range of 0.5 to 1.5 times. And we expect this ratio to reduce in 2022 towards our target range, as we passed the peak of CapEx on our internal investment projects and as our EBITDA increases and with our strategic initiatives and organic growth.
The obvious route to strengthen the balance sheet will be to reduce the level of inventory. But as I said on the previous slide, this can only happen when the global supply chain returns to much improved levels of reliability.
And with that, I'm happy to hand you back to Stefan.
Thanks, Ian, very much. Let me wrap up the presentation part of the call with a view on our strategic initiatives. As we approach 2022, we can see that we are behind the target in 2022 of our strategic initiatives. This is almost entirely due to a time lag triggered by the COVID year and a half.
Of course, the problem that we couldn't access customers. Therefore, our sales initiatives are behind for over a year, probably in some cases almost two years. And, of course, many things were then delayed because of the supply chain topics.
Good news is that we can raise our target to €110 million that we can gain from the cost savings from 2023 onwards after the projects are completed. And our sales initiatives are still more or less at the same level than before.
Let me give you a few pictures, so that you can see that your money is really delivering something. Here is the new plant in Hochfilzen in the Tyrolean Alps, which produces now probably the best quality of dolomite raw materials in Europe, also at larger scale. This plant is fully in operation and is working quite nicely.
On the next picture, you can see the new tunnel kiln in Urmitz in our German site that was commissioned in the fourth quarter of this year. You can see this is a super modern, high-tech piece of equipment that will allow us to significantly increase capacity here, consolidate with some neighboring sites, and therefore deliver the benefits.
If we look at the sales strategies, you can see on flow control, we have recovered very nicely to the 2019 levels. The solution contracts have made good progress. We rebased the calculation a little bit here. So, therefore, we've given you the last three years and you can see the progress we've made here.
And most importantly, in India and in China, where we did have lower market – or where we still have lower market shares than in other parts of the world, we made very good progress. These two geographies now make up around 18% of our global business already.
As a example for this, we have bought shares in a company in China and together with our partners, we're going to build a new plant. This is already fully in construction in Chongqing in China. This gives us access to a different geography and to a different product class.
And in Turkey, on the next slide, you can see that the agreement to buy company called SÖRMAŞ has been agreed and signed. We are now waiting for the Turkish antitrust authorities to give us the clearance. This is a downstream investment for us. As you know, in Turkey, we are already producing raw materials.
We would very much like to keep these raw materials in the country, expand the production of SÖRMAŞ there in order to supply the strongly growing Turkish market with local production. That's the target here. We can, hopefully, take this over as soon as we get the approval from the antitrust authorities sometimes over the course of the next months.
Yeah, let me summarize, ladies and gentlemen. RHI Magnesita takes its leadership in the global refractory industry very seriously. We continue our strategic transformation despite all of the volatility and all of the headwinds that we experience year after year now, and it looks like this will not end for the time being.
Our production optimization plan is close to completion. We will continue with our journey to strengthen the company through M&A, especially in the markets that are attractive for us: India and China. We are also the sustainability leader in the refractory industry. We are well-positioned for a global decarbonization in the long run, but we're also reducing CO2 already in the short run. Nobody in the industry is anywhere closely as engaged as we are in this area.
And last, but not least, we are the innovation and technology leader in the market. We're not forgetting innovation in the classical refractory technologies. But we're also adding new knowledge and new innovation in the area of recycling, where a lot can still be done in order to upgrade the quality of the raw materials that come from the breakout of our customers.
And finally, the heat management capabilities of RHI Magnesita are unmatched. Nobody can deliver these full, complete solutions for our customers, and this is what we're continuing to build out. Our customers recognize this. That's why the percentage of solution business in our portfolio is increasing year after year.
Thank you very much for listening. And now, Ian and myself are, of course, very happy to answer your questions. [Operator Instructions]
Our first question is from Mark Davies Jones from Stifel. Mark, your line is now open, please go ahead.
Thanks very much. Lots going on, obviously. So, can we start first with pricing and costs. The exit run rate in Q4 looks much healthier. Looking forward to 2022, obviously, we get that full run rate of price increases, but we also get a full run rate of higher cost levels. So, if things on both sides stay roughly where they are, is there any reason why that 12.5% can't be sustained or built on in 2022 or are there other lagged effects coming through now?
Mark, the big challenge now in 2022 is energy costs. This has, of course, dramatically increased starting in the fourth quarter already. So, we have some of these costs in the inventories that we have. But it's continuing, of course, accelerated now by what's going on in the Ukraine. I saw Brent was at $100 per barrel this morning.
So, that will continue. And this is the same order of magnitude then shipping cost was last year. So, we cannot sit back. I think I'm quite confident that we can maintain the margin level that we have at this moment. All of the order book shows this, but we can't sit back.
In a little bit lower level, but still also on the cost side, our labor costs go up significantly. We have about three times the salary increases this year that we experienced in past years. So, that has some effect on us as well. It's not as big as shipping and energy, but it's there to be managed. So, by no way can we sit back and relax.
Indeed. And perhaps I can ask Ian [ph] if we can have (00:28:37) an extended period of higher than expected debt. Can you just remind us where covenant sits and how comfortable your relationship banks are with running those debt levels? I can see the commercial need to keep inventory and keep the whole system moving, but is that something you got backing for?
Mark, thank you. So, our debt covenant across all of our gross debt is 3.5 times. That 3.5 times is calculated excluding the IFRS 15 debt. And therefore, on an equivalent basis, our actual figure is 2.5 times. And, yes, we have a stable, long-term supportive banking syndicate of 11 banks weighted towards Austro-Germanic banks that have been with RHI for many, many years, and we continue to count on their support.
Excellent. Thank you. And if I can just do one third one. Any potential second order threats from the Russia/Ukraine situation? I mean, have you looked at how much of your production base in Europe is in regions that are entirely dependent on Russian gas supply?
So, there are three aspects to this crisis. The first one, which is the most important one, I think, and the most – one that we should take the most serious is the people. We have employees in Ukraine and employees in Russia, and we are very focused on trying to help them, especially the ones living in Ukraine, them and their families. This is, like safety and health, the most important thing that we need to take care of now in the next days. So, we're focused on this.
The second aspect is the business that we have in Ukraine and Russia. It's a total business of around €90 million. I think we need to assume, in a worst case scenario, that this business might cease during 2022 and maybe in longer term as well. It depends on sanctions, on many things. It's difficult to judge this. But there's big production interruptions in Ukraine now. And if sanctions continue to escalate, then probably we cannot deliver very much into Russia. So, that's the second aspect. It's a pity, but I think that's about the extent in which we would see this. This is about 3.5% of our turnover.
And the third part is probably the issue with the biggest financial impact in the short and medium term. This is the gas supply from Russia, especially our Austrian raw materials plants are very much exposed. Hochfilzen in [ph] Tyroliya (00:31:28) that you just saw has the ability to use coal. So, we could switch relatively quickly to coal. In Austria, 60% of the coal also comes from Russia. But here, we could find alternative sources, I think, relatively quickly.
But the other raw material plant in Breitenau is entirely dependent on gas. Most of this comes from Russia. So here, this is rather a serious situation. We're already in emergency planning and we have to see how this develops. I think this is a risk, but it's almost impossible to forecast this at this moment in time.
The finished goods plant in Europe could probably switch to liquid gas and other alternatives, a little bit easier, because also the consumption is not so high. It will remain a challenge also. This is a European issue or an issue for the European plants. There could be some upside if Russian imports of finished products of steel, copper, things like that cannot happen anymore. This will strengthen the European producers and the Turkish producers and other producers.
So, I think from a market perspective, we're not that negative, but the gas supply is a challenge very difficult to quantify today. We were more relaxed on Friday, when we wrote this RNS and Q&A, and then acceleration of sanctions happened over the weekend. So, I think we have to take it day-by-day at this point.
Indeed. Thank you very much.
Next question, please.
Nothing further in the queue at present. [Operator Instructions] We have a question from Harry Philips of Peel Hunt. Harry, please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone.
Good morning, Harry.
I hope everyone is keeping their tin hats on. Just a couple of questions, please. The first is around China and India, which is already up to 18% of sales. Just how say – sorry, there's a horrible echo on the line. In five years' time, say, where would you hope they ought to go and how much would further investment would you need to put into the regions to facilitate that?
And then the second is around solutions. You've given us the chart, which is very helpful, but is the 40% target still readily achievable in... [audio gap]
(00:34:23-00:34:33)
...China and India for 2025 or so, because it doesn't make sense. In China, much depends on consolidation, on industry consolidation. It is quite encouraging what is happening there. So, I think we can continue on this path. And in India, this is very much a matter of the growth of the Indian market.
The Indian market is really the only big, large scale market in the world that is growing. We have a good position, but here this is a matter of investing into capacities through intelligent combination of plant expansions, but also some targeted acquisition. So, this percentage, I believe, will easily surpass the 20% of the share of wallet, but how far it would go I'd rather not make any predictions now.
The solutions percentage of 40% is ambitious. We, obviously, need some exponential growth in order to do this. But it is also supported by a lot of new digital products that will complement our traditional offering, and they are only coming to the market now in the next one or two years. And then, the growth, of course, comes thereafter.
So, the 40% is still in reach. We don't want to give this up, but I acknowledge it's ambitious. Maybe it'll take a couple years longer, depends on how well our customers will accept these new total solutions. By the way, also the recycling of the breakout materials makes a big part of the solutions potential.
Got it. And that sort of leads really onto my next question, which is the whole sort of greenfield sustainability, how recycling fits into that. You have the SSAB announcement a couple of weeks ago – three weeks ago, where electric arc is being brought on stream and a new look at the new capacity coming on stream in North America and huge buff, almost total dominance around electric arc. And just how you sort of deploy your strategy around those dynamics.
Yeah. So, the electric arc furnace, of course, is the sweet spot for us. This is a magnesite-dominated refractory environment. We have a huge technology leadership in this area. Our market share in the electric arc is much higher than in the blast furnace, as you could see in the 2021 US numbers, as I've explained before. So, this is quite good for us. This should give us above average growth opportunities here.
There are two other elements to the decarbonization of our customers. One is the refractory materials that help them to save energy, like the Magnano that I talked about in my presentation, like better measurement of energy efficiency of refractories and all the things around heat loss there at the customer and, of course, the recycling, because this is a clear reduction of Scope 3 CO2 cost for our customers.
If we look at the electric arc furnace environment before and after decarbonization, today, the CO2 emissions attributable to refractories are about 3%, 3.5% from the perspective of a steel company. So, it's not that big, and therefore not so much in the prime focus.
Once a steel plant is converted to a green electric arc furnace environment with hydrogen reduction rather than oxygen plants, then the percentage of CO2 attributed to the refractories will go up to 15% to 20%. And at that point in time, it's very important that the refractories are low carbon products as well, because we will be very high on the radar. And that's what we're working towards, so that we have these solutions in place before the situation arises.
And in terms of the customer sort of response to that or whatever, just how – are they driving it very hard themselves and sort of aligning with yourselves to produce solutions or are you – is it still one way you're bringing solutions to the customers or how is that dynamic working at the moment in time?
It depends on the individual customers. We have very advanced customers who are pushing the envelope on every aspect that they can. And here, of course, we have big open arms oncoming with our own solutions, mostly towards what helps them directly in their own Scope 1. So that works.
But there's a customer segment still also out there that is not very much focused on this, and they want low-cost refractories, period, and not yet pay any premium for green products. This exists as well. But this is shifting even in markets like India, where decarbonization wasn't that big on the agenda until very recently, this is starting to change. So, there, also we see the leading companies pushing for these kind of solutions.
Surprisingly, in the US, of course, because of the push towards EAF, the interest is very, very high. In Europe, it's mixed. In South America, it's not yet so strong with the exception of Gerdau, who is super advanced and very focused and very visionary in this area. And in the rest of Asia, I think it's quite mixed also. In China also, there are quite some customers who are super engaged in all of the circular economy area and also in these innovative products that help them to save energy, and therewith CO2.
Okay. And one very last question, just around pricing into the current year. I mean, clearly, the realization in Q4 was tremendous. But with – as you say cost going higher and what have you, I mean, price increases already going through and you sort of feel reasonably happy that your action and sort of environment around that is quite stable in terms of how you manage it.
Yeah. So, from everything that we can see now for the first quarter – when I say everything, we can see all the cost increases that we can see and that we can list in the first quarter – things look quite solid. I have to say that our sales force has done a tremendous job here to change, also change the way we look at price management. This always in our industry used to be a project planning and implementing a price increase.
This is not a project anymore now. This is part of ongoing operational everyday business, because the volatility has so dramatically increased and our customers have accepted this. Our customers are attributing a much, much bigger emphasis on supply security than on pricing only. At least most of them, I have to say. This is the reason why we decided to invest into inventory, because this is the quid pro quo.
So, first quarter looks quite good. Second quarter, I would say we can be reasonably confident as well. But this comment I make without knowing what will happen, especially on the energy cost, especially in Europe. Ian, anything to add?
I think that the key sensitivity that we have is around energy, energy costs. And as we've spoken before, our hedging program extends well into 2022. So, we – around two-thirds of our energy cost is hedged. The key exposure that we really have is European gas, European electricity, as well as oil on a global basis. And that really starts to impact us from the end of the second quarter into the second half of this year. So, price increases are going to be important for us to maintain the margins we established in the fourth quarter.
Fantastic. Thanks very much, indeed.
Thanks, Harry. Do we have another question?
We do, from Dom Convey at Numis. Dom, your line is open.
Good morning, both. Thanks for taking the question. Just want to follow-up on Harry's, if I may, specifically with regard to the pricing dynamic and if we think about the EBITA bridge for 2022. Apologies if I may have missed it, but have you given the equivalent figure to that €130 million price increase target that you had for last year? What would the equivalent number be this year in order to maintain those margins at the 12.5% Q4 exit rate?
Ian, do you want to...?
Yeah. Dom, thanks for the question. So, we've intentionally not given that guidance at this point because of the uncertainty around the cost pressures around energy and non-magnesite-based raw materials. But if you go back to an EBIT bridge and the building blocks for 2022, our margin of 12.5% in the fourth quarter last year did benefit from a strong cement season.
So, if you extend the period and perhaps look at the second half, which is £150 million of EBITA, you double that up. You take into account the strategic initiatives, which are targeting to deliver around £35 million of incremental EBITA, and the fact that there may be some modest 2%, 3% volume growth during the course of the year, you get the key building blocks for our 2022 EBITA.
That's very clear. Thanks, Ian. [Operator Instructions]
Next question from Mark Fielding at RBC. Mark, your line is open.
Morning.
Good morning, Mark.
You actually touched on the question I was going to ask and [ph] that answer (00:45:53) was I was curious as you've talked about the Q4 sort of 12.5% benchmark. Just – I mean, [indiscernible] (00:46:00) flagged seasonality, but what is the normal quarterly seasonality in the first half, because I'm not sure we've had a normal year in the last three or four years?
Yeah.
So, cement is, obviously, stronger generally later in the year and in Q1. How do we think about margin seasonality through the year in this business in general?
Yeah. There's not so much margin seasonality, at least from a demand perspective, but more revenue seasonality, and that comes almost entirely from the cement business. The cement customers, they buy our materials usually at the end of the fourth quarter and in the first quarter in order to repair their kilns. This is in the northern hemisphere where most of the customers are.
Why? Because in the winter, many kilns are shut down, and then before they start again with the start of the construction season, they use the refractories in order to prepare the kilns for a restart. This is the reason for this seasonality.
It looks like this year, the cement kilns have run a little longer in 2021, and the shutdown is a little bit late. So, it might – we might have the peak month in April rather in March. That's how it looks like. But this is the season. And then the third and the second quarter usually are a little bit weaker, because we have very little cement sales during this time. And then, in the fourth quarter, it picks back up. This is the seasonality. Does that answer your question? But the margins are more or less the same from one quarter to another.
Great. Thank you.
Next question is from [ph] Neeraj Prakash from Whiteside Capital. Neeraj (00:47:53), go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking my questions. So, first, just wanted to understand the strategic thinking behind choosing India as a manufacturing hub versus other countries like China, Mexico, or directly the Middle East, which is where you're going to be currently exporting your products from India.
Yeah. So, the main manufacturing purpose of India is India for India. Why? Because the growth of the Indian market, of course, is very strong. This is a 5%, 6% growth environment for refractories. The Indian refractory production, there are – the Indian refractory sales have a lot relied on imports over the course of the last 20 years, not just for RHI Magnesita, but for the industry as a whole.
And part of the Modi government induced Make in India initiative asks us to domesticize a lot of this imported production. Specifically, this means we're moving production from China to India, while at the same time the Indian demand grows quite significantly. And that's why there's a significant manufacturing increase in India going on in the refractory industry. That's the background.
India then, and why has this been the case? This has been the case because many raw materials are just simply not available in India. They're just not in the geologies, but this fault is just the fate of nature. So, that's why there has been this strong import of finished goods, but with the maturing of the industry, now we can import raw materials to a larger extent than in the past and make the finished goods there.
With respect to the Middle East, we have been serving the Middle East mostly from India and Europe also because of the proximity. In the future – and this is one of the reasons for our strong investment and interest in Turkey. We want to shift some of this production to Turkey simply for proximity reasons. You might know that one of the major drivers for our big investment project is that we want to have a more regionalized supply chain. That's part of this. So, India for India, Turkey for Turkey and Middle East, Europe for Europe, China for China, and so on. Does that make sense?
Sure. This is a follow-up on that. What do the incremental unit economics look like for the €42 million CapEx that has been laid out for the Indian entity? And what kind of revenues can we expected or margin profile? And do we see Indian as a percent of the overall revenue and – becoming a significant chunk, i.e., it's about like 10%, I think, you mentioned in the presentation. Do we see that increasing exponentially over time?
For sure, this will increase, yes, for sure. Ian, can we answer the incremental revenue? I don't think we have this.
We haven't shared that information...
Yeah.
...at this point. Certainly, we are expecting to see further margin growth in the business supported by that CapEx investment to drive domestic production.
The India margins are not yet at the same level than in some other regions. So, there is a bit of a challenge there. It's part of growth and part of pricing pass-through dynamic, so some of this is short term. But, for sure, the production and the share of revenue on group will continue to increase.
Sure. Yeah. The context of this was just trying to understand how this would be accretive to overall corporate margins at a global level, because we do understand that the Indian entity itself has about 16%, 17% plus sort of EBITA margins because of the labor cost, arbitrage, and the efficiencies. So, just trying to understand as we [ph] cater to an (00:52:00) export base and India for India as well, on a overall RHI global level, what type of marginalization can one expect in a ballpark level three to five years from today?
Yeah, okay. We haven't shared this yet. It's a complicated calculation.
Sure. If I could just squeeze one last one in. Any view on the market cap and the valuation of the global entity? We understand it's a $1.8 billion sort of market cap. But if you look at the Indian entity, which is a pretty small part of the overall pie right now, that itself is being valued at $1 billion-plus. Any sort of thoughts on this?
We're very happy about the strong recognition of Indian investors of our business there. So, I think that's the first thought. I think it's a bit due to the difference of valuations in the different market. Otherwise, Ian, any thoughts?
I think that we continue to believe that the RHI Magnesita group share price is trading on a undemanding multiple. And clearly, as we deliver on our strategic initiatives as we retain the margins that we've established to the back end of last year, hopefully those will be supportive for our share price. But our focus as a management team is delivery.
Sure. Thank you so much for taking my questions. Thanks a lot.
Any more questions? [Operator Instructions]
As we have no further questions, I'll hand back to the management team for any closing remarks.
Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen, for dialing in this morning. Thanks for your interest. Let's stand together to see what happens now here in Europe or, more specifically, in Ukraine. We will do our best to mitigate these events. And, of course, we will keep you informed with every step we take and with every element that influences us. Thank you for dialing in and have a good day.
Thank you, all. Goodbye.
This concludes today's call. Thank you very much for your attendance. You may now disconnect your lines.