Vidrala SA
MAD:VID
Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2023 Analysis
Vidrala SA
In the first nine months of 2023, the company achieved impressive financial figures with revenues approaching EUR 1.2 billion and EBITDA exceeding EUR 315 million, demonstrating a strong EPS of EUR 6.01. This robust performance is further underscored by a low leverage ratio of just 0.5x EBITDA, indicating a healthy balance sheet and disciplined debt management.
Strategic acquisitions are central to the company's growth and diversification. Notably, the purchase of The Park in the U.K. and Vidroporto in Brazil showcases the company's commitment to expanding its market reach and leveraging synergies. These moves are intended to capture new sales, enhance industry knowledge, and forge long-term customer partnerships, setting the stage for increased margins and cash returns.
Despite the successful financial outlook, the company has faced softer than expected demand, with volumes down and an abnormal weakness in the market that seems to be a combination of various factors. However, the management holds a view that abnormal conditions are typically temporary, suggesting a potential rebound. The company expects double-digit revenue growth for the full year, maintaining a 25% EBITDA margin, and targets an EPS of EUR 7. They also anticipate generating over EUR 150 million in free cash flow.
The company's operational strategy involves hedging nearly 60% of its energy needs to mitigate market volatility, which, coupled with its efficient cash conversion process that generated a strong free cash flow of EUR 90 million in the third quarter alone, lays a strong foundation for sustained financial health. Future guidance indicates an eventual recovery, with sales volumes predicted to reflect real consumer demand by 2024, leading to a stable or improved market position.
Looking ahead, the company is cautiously optimistic about 2024, suggesting that some of the current challenges are temporary and likely to correct. As the temporary factors wane, they anticipate a stable or even recovering demand. The management also noted that the current share price is significantly undervalued, presenting a potential opportunity for actions such as share buybacks or increased dividend as a means of shareholder remuneration.
In the face of a general decline across product segments, the company has managed to slightly outperform the industry average, partly thanks to The Park acquisition. Despite volume reductions, pricing initiatives have been successful, with a 19% increase in prices for the quarter. This pricing power is part of their confidence in maintaining the full-year guidance and reinforces their ability to manage price-to-cost spreads effectively, thus sustaining their profitability and market position.
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Good morning, and welcome to the conference call organized by Vidrala to present its 2023 third quarter results. Vidrala will be represented in this meeting by Raul Gomez, CFO; and Inigo Mendieta, Head of IR. The presentation will be held in English. And in the Q&A session, questions will be also answered in Spanish. Nevertheless, it is strongly recommended to post questions in English in order to facilitate understanding of everyone. In the company website, www.vidrala.com, you will find available a presentation that will be used as supporting material to cover this call as well as a link to access the webcast.Mr. Mendieta, you now have the floor.
Good morning to everyone, and thank you for the time that you dedicate to attend this call. As announced, Vidrala has published this morning its 2023 third quarter results. And additionally, we have also published the results presentation that will be used as supporting material to this conference call. Following this document, we will dedicate the first part of our exposition to briefly explain the figures released today to devote afterwards as much time as necessary to discuss on the business performance in the Q&A session.So starting with the main magnitudes. In the 9 months of 2023, we achieved as most relevant business figures, revenues of almost EUR 1.2 billion and EBITDA above EUR 315 million, and a net income equivalent to an EPS of EUR 6.01. Net debt at the end of the period stood at EUR 209 million, which is equivalent to a leverage ratio of 0.5x the reported EBITDA.Turning to Slide 4. We look at the top-line performance, analyzing the annual variation of revenue broken down by concepts and we arrive at the reported figure of EUR 1.194 million that I think shown in the graph is the result of 18.6% growth on a constant currency basis. Volumes were down minus 6%, considering a positive contribution of The Park of plus 2% in the first 9 months while price/mix effect was up 24%. Following the order of key business figures referred to at the beginning, we analyze with the same breakdown the variation of operating income. 2023 9 months EBITDA amounted to EUR 315.6 million, reflecting a constant currency growth of 100.1%. These operating figures resulted in an operating margin, EBITDA over sales of 26.4%, which represents an expansion of more than 10 percentage points compared to the 15.6% registered in the previous year that was, as we all know, affected by unprecedented inflationary pressures.Let's analyze now the free cash flow generation in detail. We will do so with the help of the chart on Slide 8, which reconstruct the cash conversion year-to-date. So starting from an EBITDA margin of 26.4%, we have dedicated 9.9% of sales to investments and another 9.0% to the aggregate of working capital, financials, and taxes. It's still affected by exceptional working capital movements that are already reverting as anticipated. Finally, net debt at the end of the reported period closed at EUR 209 million. This figure is the consequence of the just mentioned cash generation, our firm commitment to shareholder remuneration and the cash out for the acquisition of The Park, and the non-controlling minority stake in the share capital of Vidroporto. As a result, leverage ratio stands at 0.5x EBITDA.And now before turning to the Q&A session, I pass the call to Raul so that he can extract the main conclusions and make additional comments that he considers as appropriate.
Good morning, everyone. Thank you, Inigo, and thank you all for your time attending this call today. Well, we are today publishing results that are an evidence of our business profile. I mean under a weaker-than-expected demand context, we have recovered margins and we are expanding profits and making the expected level of cash. Consistent with this, we do reiterate our previous guidance. So our revenue for the full-year 2023 would grow by double digit, and we still expect our margins to remain in line with our 25% EBITDA over sales target. We also see our profits reaching the expected level of EUR 7 per share. And finally, we should generate more than EUR 150 million of free cash in the full-year, in the 12 months period. Moreover, the more intense macroeconomic uncertainties we are leaving but let me say -- let me remark that despite the recent volatility seen in packaging demand shouldn't or won't change the long-term natural resilience of our business. Anyway, I was saying this certain weakness will make us adapt to capacity, control inventories, and put our focus on keeping our margins under control.But much more important under our view, this context further provides the credit deserve to the rationale of our recent strategic actions. These strategic actions that will make us grow and diversify the business and secure higher margins, profits, and cash returns. Let me remind that we at the beginning of the year acquired the filling facilities in the U.K. named The Park. And as a result, we are capturing new sales, we are improving our knowledge about the fundamentals of the packaging industry, and we are intensifying long-term partnership with customers that are strategic, making our business and our subsidiary in the U.K., Encirc, and even more different packaging player with a unique -- its unique in the world customer service approach. And maybe even more important today under current conditions, we are -- this is a big thing for us, we are entering a new market in Brazil through the acquisition of Vidroporto that will offer us opportunities to grow that are becoming particularly valuable today, and there are more modest demand context.And finally, we are executing all this, maintaining a, I would say, quite solid financial position. Thank you.Inigo, we may now go directly to the Q&A.
Perfect. So this completes our exposition and we now give way to the Q&A session.
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Alberto Espelosin from JB Capital.
I have 4, if I'm right. My first question is on full-year '23 guidance. It seems a bit conservative after seeing the results of the first 9 months, mainly on margins and EPS. In my figures for you to not give guidance, EBITDA margin in fourth quarter should be below 20%. So my question is why are you not raising your guidance? Is there that low visibility for the fourth quarter? My second question is on volumes for next year. What should we expect in terms of end consumer demand volumes? And so will you see further destocking from your clients' coming volumes? Also, do you expect the volume for this quarter would be great? My third question is on hedging. What are your current levels of hedging? And it's going to just skyrocket due to the conflict in the Middle East, do you think you will be able to increase prices as you did in 2022 because it seems that the demand scenario is much weaker as of today? And last on free cash flow, which remains very healthy. Are you looking for any further M&A? And if you could say any latest updates on Vidroporto, it would be great.
Well, your first question regarding our full-year guidance, you're right. We are very conscious that in Encirc, last quarter results in our guidance is guiding lower margins than in the first 9 months of the year, and this is something that is purely reasonable considering the seasonally normal weaker last quarter of every year, okay? It's true that we are seeing our margins levels at around 20%, and this is consistent with full-year margins of 25%, okay? The reason for that is that demand is still somewhat weaker than initially expected or softer than initially expected. And the main reason is that if you include this in a natural last quarter of every year that is naturally weaker, that's the reason okay? That explanation of this 20% EBITDA margin for the last quarter of this year, okay?More important, going to your second question, okay, volumes expectations for 2020 for -- but I think that the demand conditions that we are seeing today, the weakness that we are facing is abnormal, okay? If you take a look at the historical figures and it can only be explained as a result of simultaneous combination of different factors, and some of these factors are temporary by nature, okay? I mean the last year comparison is quite challenging. This is one explanation. Second, customers that secure higher glass inventories a year ago are today probably destocking glass. And finally, it's the macro factor on the restock, okay? Some of these temporary factors will end. So we should see some sort of stabilization or recovery soon. And maybe the macro factor will be the big question mark for 2024 probably. So far today, it's difficult to say. It's unlikely to foresee for us an even more negative demand context or sales volumes scenario for us in 2024 in comparison with this 2023 that will be significantly weaker than expected for all the industry, okay?
Your third question, Alberto, on hedging. You know that we have a policy that forces us to have at least 1/3 of our acquisition for the next 12 months hedged. In this case, our levels of hedging at this point of the year is something in the range of 60% for the next 12 months, which implies a level of protection in the range of 50% for 2024, okay, at similar or slightly below current market levels.
And the last question regarding free cash flow and our uses of cash. Well, it's true that we are generating the expected level of probably a strong amount of cash. This is all as planned. We are where we were expecting to be at this level. The remainder of the year, we will further generate more cash, as you can see in the reiteration of our guidance at this level. But that won't change our priority in terms of use of cash. We -- our priority is M&A. We are actively involved in an M&A transaction that is Brazil. So hopefully, if everything goes as expected, most of the cash to be generated this year will be dedicated as planned to the decision of Vidroporto, okay? In this case, in terms of timing, the message remains the same. We are happy shareholders of Vidroporto. We are learning over this valuable transition period. We're probably making solid connections with our colleagues, administrations, customers, shareholders. We are providing some knowledge or assistance to these companies, slowly, and we are learning every day about what Brazil and Vidroporto means.And what we can say is that we are even more excited about the quality of the business, the assets, customer relationships, and the management team. So in definitive, we will complete this acquisition. But we aim to close this deal under a clean efficient agreement avoiding any risk of legacies, once all legacies that today affect the majority shareholder are solved. Finally, you will ask this, the timing remains the same. We expect to close this transaction before the end of this year.
Our next question comes from the line of Francisco Ruiz from BNP Paribas.
First of all, I would like to congratulate Inigo for the next step that he's taken in a couple of days. And we've seen a lot of happiness in the new stage. Three question on my side. The first one is, you have talked already about some stoppage of some furnaces in the coming quarters. Metropac has already announced some of them. How do you see, I mean, the industry -- the rest of the industry performing on that stage? And how do you see prices for next year? The second question is on working capital. If you could give us an idea of what was the working capital in this Q3? And what do you expect for the coming quarters? And finally, we're trying to make a reflection talking aloud, I mean, if -- as I presume, your prices will decline a little bit next year, but with a better demand. And with this cost at the lower prices than this year, it is likely that we will see EBITDA in absolute terms growing in 2024?
Well, first question regarding our capacity control actions. Well, let me say that our utilization rate today is approximately at the levels of 80%. So this is quite low number, less than optimal. And that will be another reason to explain our guidance and our margins as expected for the remainder of the year. This is more or less under control. As you can see in the reiteration of our guidance but that will temporarily affect our margins and our cost absorption capabilities over the next 3, 4 months, okay? We don't know where the industry is, where our competitors are. I will say that we should be performing because of evident reasons that you will probably agree, we should be performing in terms of sales volumes this year, slightly better than the industry average because we will have the contribution of the capture of sales in the U.K. from the acquisition of The Park. So I will expect the industry to be as disciplined as we are doing. So I should expect the utilization rates across the industry, at least the European glass industry at similar levels of these 80%, okay?But we are seeing simultaneously round of cancellations or stoppages of projects that were announced to add capacity. And okay, this is the level of discipline that we need to take the example that you are mentioning recent news from some of our competitors is a good example of what we should see in the future, okay? There is no reason so far and then maybe you to be concerned about the lack of discipline in the industry under my view. And in any case, Vidrala won't be a case of this, okay? Second point and linked with this regarding prices, well, in terms of prices, so far, we are still seeing inflation in many factors across the business. So we do have arguments to maintain our current pricing level or pricing initiatives till the end of the year. This is also another reason to maintain this confidence in our full-year guidance. For now, the eyes are put on 2024, right? Looking at 2024, it is still too soon. That will depend on the demand context, the competitive dynamics that we are discussing, but we do have a reference. And the reference is the 40% of our sales volumes. So our sale volumes agreements that are dictated by price formulas. The result of a typical price formula today for us are showing us a variation in 2024 in comparison with the full-year 2023 of around in the range of minus 5% to minus 10%.Nothing has changed since our last message on that sense. And if we are able to materialize this price adaptation that will be completely aligned with the underlying cost inflation that we are seeing. That should help us to secure margins and to maintain a neutral price-to-cost spread. So if we combine this price-cost scenario, let me remark that on the cost volatility, we are seeing almost 60% of our energy position is fixed hedged and the levels that are aligned or slightly below market levels, I think as I said before, for the next 12 months. So we are more or less protected in that sense. But if we combine these price cost conditions with some minimal recovery on demand, there is no reason to have any doubts about the sustainability of our profits into 2024, okay?Let me finally remark that our long-term strategic target is never dependent on top-line growth. We have been particularly prudent in terms of our capacity actions, our strategic capacity actions over the last 5 years. In 2024, we are basically to produce or will have an installed capacity that is the same capacity we had 5 years ago, and there are significantly improved cost mix, okay? We exit from Belgium, and we replaced this capacity selectively in the U.K. and Portugal. So we are an example of probably a particularly protected glass player if we are to see a weaker-than-expected demand context.
So perfect. And then Paco, on working capital, as we reported for the 9 months, we are generating almost EUR 90 million of free cash flow. All of this has been generated in the third quarter standalone because we were almost flat, if you remember, in the first half of this year. And this includes, as we were mentioning in the presentation, an effect of reverting working capital. In this case, the effect is a positive effect in the third quarter of almost EUR 40 million, okay? And working capital movements are mainly explained by accounts receivables in the part.
So just a follow-up, Raul, so if you are telling us that top-line will decline this minus 5% on prices with no demand, but you think that EBITDA will grow, we will see a very positive impact in terms of volume next year -- sorry, in terms of margin, sorry.
What we are seeing, Paco, I'm trying to be a little bit more prudent or conservative so far in that level, okay? What we are seeing is that if we are to face an adaptation of prices of between minus 5% to minus 10%, that will be enough for us to maintain margins if demand recovers a little bit, okay? So I would say that it's still too soon to foresee or to predict significant growth of operating profits in 2024. It's still a little bit too soon, and we are all in this industry a little bit surprised about the weakness of demand we are facing, okay? This is not a big problem for Vidrala, that's the message. We don't depend on particular demand buoyancy or to reach our strategic targets. This weakness is particularly -- making our M&A actions particularly efficient today, but let me say that it's time for us, and you will probably understand, it's time for us to be a little bit conservative looking beyond 2024, okay, in terms of total or absolute profits.
The next question comes from the line of Inigo Castellanos from Kepler Cheuvreux.
Most of them have been already answered, but just a follow-up, if I may. In terms of volumes, can you explain a bit what have we seen in Q3? If my numbers are right, volumes are corrected by double digits. So if you can elaborate a bit these volumes, these negative volumes by markets and also by segments. I don't know if there is any difference between beer, wine, and other segments and also between different geographies.
As stated in the call, volumes for the 9 months are down minus 6%, and this includes a positive effect of The Park of plus 2%, and prices are for the 9 months in the range of 24% positive, okay? If we take a look at the quarter, as I understand this is your question, volumes were down minus 10%. So you're right with your estimate. And this includes also a similar effect of -- positive effect of The Park in the range of 2%. And prices in the quarter have been up 19%, okay? If we take a look at different regions, there are no big differences. We believe that demand performance is similar across regions. It is true that we are performing slightly better in the U.K., probably because our particular business and the integration of The Park, okay, that gives us more visibility in terms of volumes, especially relevant in this more weak demand context. And if we take a look at different families or product segments, we see something similar. Declines are generalized across segments. We could see some worse performance in beer, probably food and olive oil and spirits, which could be segments that are more cyclical but again, we see declines all across the segments, and that is something generalized and probably explained by as we explained during the call by something more than pure organic demand.
And congratulations and good luck.
Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Jose Antonio Suarez Roig from CaixaBank.
Most of them have already been solved. I have a couple of them. First of all, you were mentioning that around 60% of your energy you need for 2024 are hedged. Regarding the fourth quarter, what will be the percentage? And also regarding this question, you were also commenting that you were trying to implement a new hedging policy offering the clients to hedge their orders. And how is this evolving? What percentage of sales the clients have been taking? Is this normally how it's been offered? How is it evolving? And also on volumes for 2024, Raul was mentioning that around -- it will be like maybe slightly positive around neutral like positive in terms of volume. But if we take into account the destocking has had around 6 points of -- 6 percentage points in terms of impacting sales in 2023. This will mean that end demand will drop around mid-single-digit in 2024. Just to clarify, am I right? And also recalling that the taking into account the resilience of the industry, this is a very huge drop in number. And if you compare it to, for example, the 2008 crisis and why are you seeing such a strong drop in demand for the year? Just a clarification, where can we see a mid-single-digit and demand for -- because it's a very resilient industry. And I want to see a little bit how is the rational now.
On your first question, I repeat hedging levels for the next 12 months in the range of 60%, 6-0, which implies something in the range of 50%,5-0, for the full-year 2024, okay? For the last quarter of 2023, you can assume a hedging level that should be something around 85% of our exposure.
And regarding the second question about our prospects for a sound demand recovery in 2024, the [indiscernible] we are seeing today, okay, apparently, demand in Europe, demand for glass containers in Europe is dropping by double-digit. And this is a historical negative variation. If you take a look at the long-term historic statistics, so you would agree with me that it's just abnormal. Under my view, things that are abnormal are normally temporary, okay? You will probably agree with me that this is also not reflecting real consumption -- conditions of consumption, okay? This is not what is happening on the consumer side. Obviously, the macro factor is impacting the consumption of food and beverage products, packaging glass or in other alternative material but not by that level of 10%. So it is evident that there is an amount -- a significant amount, difficult to quantify for us of temporary effects that started 5, 4 months ago, if you remember, in our numbers. So we should soon see an end of these temporary factors. And we should soon see a reversion of these temporary factors, and that should add some level of stability or even recovery in 2024.So what I think after this is that in 2024, we will see our sales volumes reflecting real demand consumption conditions. This is not the case today so far plus some recovery of these temporary factors. It's still too soon. We're still a little bit surprised, nothing dramatic, but a little bit surprised about the demand conditions we are seeing. That means that the level of stability we have in the short term is lower than usual, but we are planning some sales volumes recovery, positive growth in 2024 in comparison with 2020. It has happened that we repeat that or insist on this message, that should also help us to maintain our price-to-cost spread under control, sustaining or making -- enabling us to sustain our profits, margins, EBITDA, and value and probably, don't forget this cash flow as long as CapEx for the current perimeter in 2024 following a pure calendar effect will be more relaxed than in the last 2 years.
Just a clarification. So in terms of visibility, you're still like depending on how you see things evolving for 2024 in a more advanced stage, you can clarify if demand will be stronger or not from an end perspective, but up till now, you don't have enough visibility, right?
Yes, right.
There are no further questions by the telephone. I return the floor to Mr. Gomez and Mr. Mendieta. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you very much. There are no -- we have answered the questions via telephone. There are still some questions that we have received through the webcast. We have received several questions, okay, on capacity, on supply, on M&A, on Vidroporto, on the breakdown on prices and volumes. I think all of them have been already answered live. Please, if the ones that have asked these questions feel that they want to get some additional granularity, feel free to contact us after the call, okay? Anyway, there are some questions that are still pending. The first one says cash generation in Vidrala is extremely high, and at the same time, financial leverage is extremely low. Even taking into account Vidroporto acquisition, the high cash generation should lead to no financial debt in 2 years' time. Additionally, Vidrala current share price is extremely low on an evaluation ground. So would you consider this opportunity of low share price to buy back your own stock?And there is also a similar question saying that, okay, even given our free cash flow generation, if it is reasonably to expect an increase in dividend according to increase on profit. So both on shareholder remuneration in terms of share buybacks and dividends.
Okay. Thank you, Inigo. Well, I understand while that this is a question about our shareholder remuneration policy expected for 2024 and beyond, I think it's a little bit soon to think about our dividend policy, our cash dividend policy for next year. We still need some time to make a proposal to the board, but you will understand that following: I agree in full with the comments of your question that following the confidence we are providing today with regards to our financial position, our cash profile, even the resulting financial position if we are to close the Brazilian study soon and following the cash that we are generating this year, and the profits that we are making this year, there is no reason that to expect positive cash dividend growth in 2024, okay? Maybe if things keeps us as expected in terms of cash generation, as we did in the past, we will deeply analyze with ambition the potential combination of cash dividends' growth with share buyback programs. But this case will be monitored carefully on a frequent basis and will depend on the execution of our M&A activity, okay? The first priority, and use of cash will be M&A, that is of Vidroporto. If this is completed soon as expected and if the rest of the business performs as expected, we should combine cash dividends out with share buybacks because this is our methodology, this is our tool to ruminate our shareholders that we like, and we have executed quite frequently over the last years. Nothing will change in that sense.
Perfect. So we have now answered all the questions. So once again, thank you for the time that you have dedicated to us this morning. Thank you, Paco and Inigo, for your congratulations. And just to remind everyone that we remain at your complete disposal for any further questions. Thank you.
Thank you very much.