Biesse SpA
MIL:BSS
Earnings Call Analysis
Summary
Q3-2023
Biesse experienced a decline in financial performance over the first nine months of 2023 compared to the previous year, with net revenues decreasing by 2.9% to EUR 596 million. EBITDA fell by 11% to EUR 63 million, while EBIT drastically dropped by 36%, from EUR 44 million to EUR 28 million, after accounting for non-recurring items including a restructuring provision planned for 2024. The net profit also decreased by 36% to EUR 16 million. Despite these challenges, the company's net financial position remains strong at EUR 90 million, EUR 105 million if excluding IFRS16 impact. As for the future, Biesse anticipates a lower top line for 2024, with a preliminary estimate of a 6-9% decrease. However, the company expresses cautious optimism for a recovery in 2025 and 2026.
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Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the third quarter 2023 results conference call. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Pierre La Tour, CFO of Biesse. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, welcome. So I hope you all received the communication, so the press release regarding our consolidated financial results at 30th of September. Let me start by very briefly commenting our main indicators, and then we can move on to your questions if you want to explore further specific issues.So we're looking at consolidated net revenues for the 9 months at EUR 596 million. Now this represents a drop versus the same period last year, where net revenues stood at EUR 613 million. So that's minus 2.9%.If we move down to the EBITDA, we have achieved close to EUR 63 million, which is down by 11% versus the almost EUR 71 million we achieved last year. Now if we look at our operating results, so our EBIT, basically, we are posting EUR 28 million in terms of EBIT, which is significantly below last year, so the EUR 44 million. So this represents minus 36% versus last year. Now of course, here, I'm talking about the EBIT, so after non-recurring items. And I have to point out that between adjusted EBIT and EBIT, of course, we have non-recurring items.I want to point out that we have posted -- we have booked one item that relates to a restructuring provision. So this is something that we are preparing to undertake in 2024. And of course, this is a partial provisioning. We are expecting to post an additional provision regarding this restructuring in Q4. And this is linked to the first item that you find in our press release. So this is the report on activities that was discussed during our Board meeting, report on activities related to furlough agreements, which in Italian translates into contratto di solidarieta.Moving on, net profit. So we are looking at a net profit of EUR 16 million. This is down by 36% versus the EUR 24.8 million in September '22.And finally, one quick word about our net financial position. You can see that our net financial position remains strong. So we closed the quarter with a positive net financial position for EUR 90 million. This is, of course, after IFRS16. So in fact, if we were to exclude the IFRS16 impact, this would stand at approximately EUR 105 million. This is our net financial position, and it is improving versus September 2022 when we closed at just short of EUR 80 million.So this is in a nutshell the situation that we have. I think I'm going to leave it at that and take your questions. So please feel free to address any questions regarding our results.
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Besik Sanaia with Lombardi Capital.
Hello? Can you hear me?
Yes.
I have a question regarding market recovery, more specifically '24, '25 and '26. I appreciate it might be a bit early given that you do your budgeting a bit later. But obviously, your competitor Duerr and HOMAG, they issued a press release last week and calling...
Yes, they did.
Market not expected to recover until 2026 the latest. And they're calling out 15% decline in revenues for next year for HOMAG business. Could you talk about how you see the end market developing? And perhaps give us a bit more color on '24 and '25, maybe just high level. I appreciate you're still budgeting.
Very much to the point, although -- of course, it is a little bit premature. So let me just give you an insight, first of all, into what our timing is regarding the budget and the strategic plan. So we're currently working on the budget and we're planning to submit the budget to our Board on December 18. This moment will be followed by the submission of our strategic plan, so '24-'26, to the Board in February. So this is where we stand.Now of course, as we speak, we're working on the budget. The whole company is working on the budget. And of course, this year the budget is proving to be particularly challenging, not only because of, let's say, market conditions, but especially in view of external factors that could impact, let's say, the world economy. And here, I'm referring to recent geopolitical events. And of course, these could impact the world economy at large. And of course, it's difficult right now to have a level of visibility that extends, well, even to, I would say, the end of this year, let alone 2024.Nonetheless, to answer your question at least partially, what I can say is that we are foreseeing -- we are currently foreseeing a 2024 that will be lower, if we're talking about the top line, versus 2023. There's no question about it. I mean you've seen our figures regarding order intake. And we're not foreseeing a turnaround in market conditions anytime soon. So 2024 will certainly be a year where our top line is decreasing.Now, if I were to, let's say, provide you with a very rough estimate, I would say -- in terms of our top line I would say anywhere between 6 to -- I would say anywhere between 6 to 9, I think, would be a fair estimate, a fair preliminary estimate.Now, in terms of further perspective, of course, it's extremely difficult, and we are a little bit behind when it comes to 2025 and 2026. So are we seeing a rebound in the market? I wouldn't be as pessimistic as our German competitors. So we are a little bit more optimistic regarding 2025 versus them.And this is probably due to the fact that -- as you know, HOMAG is very much exposed to 2 markets that are suffering right now, that are significantly suffering. The 2 markets being Germany, of course, their domestic market on the one hand, and on the other hand, China, where HOMAG has a significant historical presence. Whereas, we do not have that exposure to the Chinese market since we decided to pull out from our manufacturing operations at the end of 2019. And since then, we are left on the Chinese market with a commercial presence, which is nonetheless not significant in terms of incidents on our net sales.So fortunately, we have a, let's say, wider geographical presence or, let's say, we have a -- our revenues are more evenly spread in the world's geographies. And this, of course, allows us to benefit from our commercial footprint versus them. So yes, we're looking at 2024 that is in contraction. We are a little bit more optimistic regarding 2025 and 2026.
That's very helpful. And if I could ask a couple more quick follow-ups, please.
Sure. Sure.
Firstly, just on the impact on your net financial position. Obviously, if order intake were to weaken, it will have implications to down payments or advances, which we have been seeing this year. So in that context, how would you go about? What sort of net financial position would you like to maintain before considering M&A because I think that's something you said you might consider?And secondly, I would assume 6% or 9% you talked about on potential -- and I appreciate this is preliminary, top line decline is predominantly volumes. In terms of implications to EBIT level, what would you suggest is kind of the drop through level? Should we take your EBIT value margin as a rough estimate for -- to gauge the drop through at EBIT level?
Okay. Right. Now, regarding our balance sheet -- so regarding our net financial position, let me comment a little bit about our working capital. So yes, you've rightly pointed to our advances from customers. That, of course, with a decreasing -- order intake are decreasing. And of course, this has -- over recent years, this has been an important instrument in net cash generation. So of course, the reduction in order intake is generating lower advances from customers and this is basically absorbing cash, right? This reduction is resulting in a cash absorption on the one hand.Now, on the other hand, of course, we have -- and you may have seen we started -- starting, I would say, from Q2 2023, we started acting on our inventory levels. Now, we have deliberately pushed on our inventory in 2021, in the second half of 2021 and throughout 2022. And that was due to, firstly, a tense situation regarding logistics in 2021. And then in 2022, we had disruptions in the global supply chain that could have adversely affected our capacity to deliver machines to our customers.So we deliberately aggressively pushed on an overstocking policy. And of course, fortunately, we could afford to overstock because our net financial position could allow it. And so that's what we did.Now, starting from Q2 this year, we started looking very closely at our inventory levels and we started reducing them. So of course, the reduction that you can see versus Q3 '22 and as well as versus the end -- 31/12/20222, this is partially balancing the decrease that we're having on our advances from customers. And this is becoming an important instrument to basically generate cash on the one hand.On the other hand, we always have a very -- we always keep a very close eye on our trade receivables and trade payables. And of course, there's a significant difference in terms of DSOs and DPOs. Our average DSOs at group level are 46 days, whereas our average DPOs -- and here, I'm referring to values at 30th September. So our DSO was -- group level DSO was 46 days and group level DPO was 109 days. So of course, the difference between the 2 -- so the 63 days that we have between the 2 is, of course, a very important -- another very important instrument to basically generate cash.Now of course, it is becoming difficult especially in troubled times like these to keep long payment terms towards our suppliers and to keep short cash-in times from our clients. So this is challenging. Nonetheless, there is significant focus right now on both credit collection as well as, of course, payments to suppliers.And we will be increasing our focus -- we have already started to increase our focus, but we will be continuing to increase our focus on receivables and especially on credit management over the next couple of months. So again, this is another very important instrument that we use in the management of our net working capital.Now, where does this lead us to in terms of net financial position? We are expecting at constant perimeter to close the year with a continued positive net financial position. Where will it be? We're expecting it to be in the region between EUR 75 million to EUR 85 million positive by the end of the year.
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from Paola Saglietti with Banca Akros.
I have 2 question. I was wondering if based on the 9-month results, you can confirm your previous outlook on 2023. And so, outlook [ for volume ] range between EUR 280 million, EUR 320 million for the end of the year and a decrease in sales in mid-single digit.
Yes. So right, you mentioned -- sorry, Paola, you mentioned our backlog between 280 and 310 you were mentioning?
Yes.
Is that correct? Okay.
Yes.
Now I think yes, I can confirm it. Although I can straightaway confirmed that we will be in the lower bracket that you just mentioned. But yes. So if I were to revise our estimates regarding our backlog, I would say 270 million to 290 is probably considering current conditions more likely in terms of range.In terms of revenues, yes, I can confirm the reduction in a single digit. So yes, absolutely. So I would say around mid or slightly above mid-range single digits for 2023.
The second question is about the profitability. So the profitability of the Q3 was stable compared to the previous year. And so do you think that for the end of the year you can reach an EBITDA margin around 10%? And for the next year, do you think that the group will be able to defend profitability also in a new scenario of decrease of its volume? Or do you think that further could be a further decrease in the profitability?
Right. Now in terms of the profitability, I mean, you've seen that basically profitability, as you rightly mentioned, is more or less stable. In fact we have a different phenomenon because, of course, we have on the one hand, lower volumes. On the other hand, of course, we have an inflation on our materials, which is basically weighing on our costs. However, on the other hand, we have cost containment actions that are mostly offsetting these negative factors. So at the end of the day -- what we're aiming for at the end of the year is an EBITDA margin, which is very close to 10%. That's what we're aiming for.Now regarding next year, next year will be, of course, a challenging year. There's no question about it. What we're looking at is a slight erosion in terms of EBITDA margin, although we are expecting to maintain EBITDA margin I would say, in the region between 8% and 10%, 8% to 10%. That's what we're looking at right now.
The next question comes from Michele Baldelli with BNP Paribas.
Thanks for sharing the view on 2024. I was just wondering, the projections on the top line, do they include an erosion of the backlog for 2024 or not? Then it would be ideal also if you can share the magnitude. But I can understand that it's difficult at this time to estimate the impact of any decline of the backlog. But just to understand the trend that you foresee on those guidance for next year.
Okay. Michele, what are we looking at in terms of backlog is really quite a wild guess. The assumption that we're making right now is basically for sales to basically equal order intake. And so this should implicitly stabilize our backlog. So that's what we're looking at. So we were discussing earlier on the backlog level at the end of this year. And we said anywhere between 270 to 290. And here, we're talking about total backlog, right, not only machines, but total backlog. And our assumption right now is that order intake should equal basically our net sales. So we're aiming for a stable backlog. There could be a slight erosion. So we could go to anywhere between 240 and 260, but the assumption right now is to have a stable backlog next year. So to have a stable backlog at the end of 2024.
Okay. And just a final question. At the end of the 9 months, the employee base, what kind of number have you reached to?
I'm sorry, can you repeat that, please?
What is the total number of employees that you achieved at the end of the 9 months?
We actually reduced our employee base. And so we are currently -- we went. And so this is -- we have to go way back. We have to go to 2020 to have a very similar number. So we closed the quarter with 3,965 employees. So we've gone below 4,000. You have to go to Q3 2020 to have the same number. So we've been reducing -- we've been progressively reducing the number of employees.
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from [ Nabeli Peranti ] with [ Alegibris ].
Sorry, I joined the call a little bit late. So maybe I'm going to ask something that you have already answered to. But I was wondering your assumptions for next year top line growth -- top line decline, sorry. What are your assumptions related to pricing, because we understand that volumes will be challenging? But I was wondering whether you are experiencing also some pricing pressure? And also what is the impact that you are expecting on margin figure?
Yes. So yes, we touched this point earlier on, but I need to go back to it. So for next year, we're expecting a reduction in our top line. Now by how much? This is going to be a single-digit reduction in our top line. What are we looking at? We're looking at the upper part or the middle part of the single digit more towards, let's say -- so we're talking about single digit but in between, let's say, 5 to, I would say, between 5% to 9%. That's what we're looking at, in terms of reduction in our top line versus 2023.In terms of margins, well, of course, we will have a challenging year ahead. We are preparing to undertake cost-cutting measures. And of course, one of these measures is reflected in our results that we have just published today. Because if you look at our EBIT, our EBIT is impacted by a non-recurring item, which is a restructuring provision. So that's what we are currently preparing for. And if we look -- if you look at our press release, we mentioned that we have achieved a furlow agreement with our trade unions contratto di solidarietà . So that's going to come into effect in the month of November, and it's going to take place until 31st October 2024.And then alongside this furlow agreement, we are also provisioning for exits. So we have gone ahead with this posting in Q3. And what we have posted in Q3 represents approximately 50% of what we are foreseen to post. So in Q4, we're expecting to post the other half, the missing half of this restructuring provision.
[Operator Instructions] Gentleman, there are no more questions registered at this time.
Okay. So if there are no more questions, I think we can call it a day. Thank you for your attendance. If any of you have any additional questions or issues that you would like to further discuss, please feel free to reach out. I am at your disposal. Thank you. Thanks to all of you. Goodbye.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephones.