Alarm.com Holdings Inc
NASDAQ:ALRM
Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2023 Analysis
Alarm.com Holdings Inc
The company demonstrated resilience in its SaaS (Software as a Service) and license revenue, which climbed to $145 million in the third quarter, marking an 8.9% year-over-year increase. This consistent SaaS revenue, highlighted by a 93% renewal rate, reflects the company's strong position despite broader market uncertainties. They also revealed an optimistic forecast for SaaS and license revenue growth, targeting a 7.5% expansion for 2024.
The company’s focus on product mix and improved supply chain dynamics paid off, with hardware gross margin rising to 22.6%, a healthy boost from the previous year's 19.1%. The overall total gross margin similarly showed a favorable uptick to 63.3%, up from 60.4% year-over-year, indicative of robust operational efficiency.
Investments in innovation are evident with a 9.7% increase in R&D expenses to $61 million, primarily due to increased headcount. Simultaneously, the company faced increased general and administrative expenses, which rose to $31.5 million, mainly due to higher legal fees – an uptrend that might continue into the future given the projected rise in legal costs for 2024.
The company’s bottom line showed resilience with GAAP net income reported at $19.5 million, compared to $18.3 million in the same period last year. They also achieved a modest increase in non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter at $41.4 million, up from $40.8 million in Q3 2022, demonstrating stability in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
The company boasted a strong cash position, ending the third quarter with $680 million in cash and cash equivalents. Operationally, they generated substantial free cash flow of $60.9 million, a significant leap from $8.4 million in the prior year. This underscores the company's ability to generate cash from its core operations and maintain liquidity.
Looking ahead, the company has set optimistic targets for 2023 with estimated SaaS and license revenue between $566.9 million to $567.1 million, anticipating further growth in ARPU (Average Revenue Per User). They project total revenue to reach between $878.9 million to $881.1 million. The focus on agility and optimizing investments is clear, as they aim to increase adjusted non-GAAP EBITDA to between $143 million to $144 million. Notably, for 2024, the company forecasts SaaS and licensed revenue to be in the range of $608 million to $612 million, with total revenue expected to fall between $908 million to $927 million, and adjusted EBITDA predicted to land between $148 million to $150 million, demonstrating commitment to driving growth despite potential economic headwinds.
The company's analysis factors in economic challenges and a cautious stance on hardware spending, especially commercial hardware spend which is predicted to slow down in H2 of 2023. Despite that, the company remains dedicated to investing in growth initiatives that they believe will contribute to long-term value. With an expectation of around 7.5% growth in SaaS and licensed revenue along with a total revenue growth rate in the low- to mid-single-digit percentage range for 2024, the company exhibits both prudence and confidence in their business model during uncertain times.
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Good day, and thank you for standby. Welcome to the Alarm.com Q3 2023 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised today's conference being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Matt Zartman, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead. .
Thanks, Kevin. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Alarm.com's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Please note that this call is being recorded. Joining us today from Alarm.com are Steve Trundle, our CEO; Dan Kerzner, our President of our Platforms business; and Steve Valenzuela, our CFO.
During today's call, we will be making forward-looking statements, which are predictions, projections estimates or other statements about future events. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. We refer you to the risk factors discussed in our quarterly report on Form 10-Q and our Form 8-K, which will be filed shortly after this call with the SEC along with the associated press release. The call is subject to these risk factors, and we encourage you to review them. Alarm.com assumes no obligation to update forward-looking statements or information, which speaks as of their respective dates.
In addition, several non-GAAP financial measures will be discussed on the call. A reconciliation of the GAAP to the non-GAAP measures can be found in today's press release on our Investor Relations website.
I'll now turn the call over to Steve Trundle. Steve?
Thank you, Matt. Good afternoon, and welcome to everyone. We're pleased to report another quarter of solid results. Our SaaS and license revenue in the third quarter was $145 million, up 8.9% over the same period last year. Our adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter was $41.4 million. I want to thank our service provider partners and the Alarm.com team for their continued strong performance. During the quarter, we meaningfully outperformed our SaaS target despite some softness and difficult to predict hardware revenue. The diversity of our business is worth highlighting as our growth initiatives continue to make substantial contributions to our SaaS results. As you know, we typically conclude our third quarter call by providing a very early look at how we think the business will perform in the following fiscal year.
I'm going to keep my comments brief today but provide some context to the 2024 numbers that Steve Valenzuela will outline. I'm also excited to welcome Dan Kerzner, the President of our Platforms business to the call to update you on a few product development initiatives. Before I hand things to Dan, I want to comment further on where we are strategically and what we see in the year ahead.
Overall, I'm pleased with our growth in SaaS revenue this year and our opportunity to maintain that momentum through next year. In 2023, we successfully accomplished some belt tightening in the business and have been able to produce the same adjusted EBITDA on a real dollar basis as in 2022. We achieved this despite an unexpected setback late last year that impacted our IP license revenues and which generated material legal costs. Even as we made these adjustments, we continue to build strong businesses in commercial intrusion and access, residential and commercial video and energy management.
We've built an international business that now serves over 60 countries globally and includes partnerships with some of the largest security companies in the world. We have also established [ 2 ] hold positions in the HVAC channel, the multifamily housing segment, the active shooter detection vertical and the IoT device monitoring space. We expect these growth initiatives to continue to generate increasing contributions to our overall performance next year and become more efficient with scale.
In 2024, we will continue to pursue our core strategy. We will invest back into the residential and commercial solutions that our service providers sell and deliver to the market every day while also continuing to build and invest in our growth initiatives. We continue to see good results from the investments we have made in video, commercial, international and energy management and expect these areas will steadily be drivers of our overall growth in the future.
In summary, I'm pleased with our third quarter results and the execution of our plan, and I want to thank our investors for their continued trust in our business.
And with that, let me turn things over to Dan Kerzner to provide an update on our video business. Dan?
Thanks, Steve. I'm pleased to join our call today and speak with our investors and analysts. The platforms business includes all product development for our core commercial and residential platforms as well as sales and marketing for our largest market, North America. We drive profitable revenue growth across global markets through new product releases that expand our market opportunity, increase ARPU and build on our service provider partners strong competitive position. While the team is focused on a range of technology domains, I'll use today's call to update you on several new enhancements to our user experience and video platform. Updates to our user experience have been motivated by the fact that the typical connected pre solution on the Alarm.com platform has become increasingly sophisticated with more and different devices. This increase, particularly focused on video, has influenced how subscribers use and interface with their system. We continually refine and optimize our user experience to provide frictionless and intuitive access to the information commands that subscribers value most.
During the quarter, we launched an enhanced version of our mobile app. The modernized navigation provides one-tap access to high-use features. Design also integrates a curated graphical activity feed that incorporates video clips directly into a comprehensive time line of activity at the property. We also developed an enhanced interactive scrubbing interface for our continuous video reporting solutions. This is a crossover feature that both increases usability for residential customers and fits the commercial market. The use cases for commercial subscribers include quickly checking to see which employees opened or closed a store on time or tracking unexpected entries or exits to an office.
Enhancements and new capabilities designed into the mobile app were informed by our extensive subscriber usage data. In a single month, earlier this year, nearly 100 million live video streams were initiated in our app and over 50 million swipes between video This data supports the new user experience design, which expands the touch points for video content within the app experience.
Now I'll shift to several new products that highlight the continued evolution of our video platform. The upcoming release of our new 729 Floodlight video camera product line leverages our intelligent video-based proactive deterrence capabilities into a new camera form factor that we believe will gain traction. The new 729 video camera includes a 4-megapixel sensor, wide area lighting, responsive multicolor LED lights and sirens and 2-way voice, which allows the central station operator to mic down through the camera to an outdoor location. It also operates our enhanced video analytics software called Perimeter Guard, which seamlessly connects to our alarm response software. The 729 will be used by our service providers to detect potential bad actors and engage them with a series of escalated responses designed to proactively deter malicious activity.
We've grown our video business to a significant scale. Our AI-powered video analytics software has identified about 22 billion events for subscribers through the detection of either people, vehicles or animals over just the last 12 months. We recently added package detection to our video analytics offering. Since it began rolling out in September, we have alerted subscribers about package deliveries over 700,000x.
To summarize, our research and development program is enabling us to address opportunities in both commercial and residential markets so we can continue to deliver SaaS growth. We're leveraging the unique strengths of our channel to deliver a differentiated and difficult-to-replicate set of capabilities that align with the long-term growth drivers of our service provider partners.
With that, I'll turn things over to Steve Valenzuela to review our financial results. Steve?
Thanks, Dan. I'll begin with a review of our third quarter 2023 financial results and then provide our guidance for Q4 and full year 2023 and conclude with our initial thoughts on 2024 before opening the call for questions. Third quarter SaaS and license revenue of $145 million grew 8.9% from the same quarter last year. Excluding dividend license revenue, third quarter 2023 non-GAAP adjusted SaaS and license revenue were 13.9% year-over-year on a comparable basis. SaaS license revenue includes Connect software license revenue of approximately $5.7 million for the third quarter, down as expected from $6.5 million in the year ago quarter.
Our SaaS and license revenue visibility remains high with a revenue renewal rate of 93% in the third quarter, consistent with our historical trends. another revenue in the third quarter was $76.8 million, down 7.5% from Q3 2022 as the year ago quarter benefited from heavy LTE cellular module cells in advance of the 3G cellular sunset that occurred at the end of last year and some slowing the sales in the commercial enterprise market. Total revenue of $221.9 million for the third quarter grew 2.6% year-over-year.
SaaS and license gross margin for the third quarter was 84.9%, up slightly quarter-over-quarter from [ 84% ] Hardware gross margin was 22.6% for the third quarter, up from [ 19.2% ] in Q3 2022 mainly due to favorable product mix and improved supply chain dynamics. Total gross margin was 63.3% for the third quarter, up from 60.4% in the year ago quarter, mainly due to the improvement in hardware margins.
Turning to operating expenses. R&D expenses in the third quarter were $61 million compared to $55.6 million in Q3 2022, mainly between an increase in head count and related compensation expenses. We ended the third quarter with 1,116 employees in R&D, up from 981 employees in Q3 2022. Total headcount increased to 1,986 employees for the third quarter, which includes employees from companies we acquired during 2023 compared to 1,699 employees in the year ago quarter.
Sales and marketing expenses in the third quarter were $23.9 million or 10.8% of total revenue compared to $23.1 million or 10.7% of revenue in the same quarter last year, mainly due to increased headcount. Our G&A expenses in the third quarter were $31.5 million, up from $28 million in the year ago quarter, mainly due to higher legal fees. G&A expense in the third quarter includes non-ordinary course litigation expense of $5.9 million compared to $3.1 million in the year ago quarter. Non-ordinary course litigation expenses are part of our adjusted measures and are excluded from our measurement of our non-GAAP financial performance.
In the third quarter, GAAP net income was $19.5 million compared to GAAP net income of $18.3 million in the year ago quarter. Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter was $41.4 million, up slightly from $40.8 million in Q3 2022. Non-GAAP adjusted net income increased to $30.6 million or $0.56 per diluted share in the third quarter compared to $30.1 million or $0.55 per share for the third quarter of 2022.
Turning to our balance sheet. We ended the third quarter with $680 million of cash and cash equivalents, up $57.8 million from our cash balance at December 31, 2022. Operating cash flow for Q3 was $62.8 million compared to $10.2 million in the year ago quarter and free cash flow was $60.9 million, up from $8.4 million in Q3 2022. The increase in cash flow was from strong operating results and improvement in working capital with collections driving down accounts receivable days out outstanding to 45 days and a slight decrease in inventory.
During the quarter, we used $6.2 million to repurchase 105,285 shares over common stock at an average price of $58.20.
Turning to our financial outlook. For the fourth quarter of 2023, we expect SaaS and license revenue of $146 million to $146.2 million. For the full year of 2023, we are raising our expectations for SaaS and license revenue to $566.9 million to $567.1 million, up from our prior guidance of $562.3 million to $562.7 million. We are projecting total revenue for 2023 of $878.9 million to $881.1 million compared to our prior guidance of $872.3 million, $887.7 million, which includes estimated hardware and other revenue of $312 million to $314 million.
We are raising our estimate for adjusted non-GAAP EBITDA for 2023 to $143 million to $144 million, up from our prior guidance of $128 million to $131 million. Adjusted non-GAAP net income for 2023 is projected to be $103.5 million to $105 million or $1.90 to $1.92 per diluted share up from our prior guidance of $92.2 million to $94.2 million or $1.69 to $1.73 per diluted share.
EPS is based on an estimate of 54.6 million weighted average diluted shares outstanding. We currently project our non-GAAP tax rate for 2023 to remain at 21% under current tax rules. We expect full year 2023 stock-based compensation expense of $48 million to $50 million.
Finally, while we are in the initial planning stages, I will provide some early thoughts on 2024 noting that these are preliminary. We currently estimate our SaaS and license revenue for 2024 will be between $608 million to $612 million. Total revenue for 2024 could range between $908 million to $927 million. We currently project our non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA for 2024 to be between $148 million to $150 million. We will provide our initial guidance for 2024 when we report our fourth quarter 2023 financial results early next year.
In summary, we are focused on executing on our strategic business plan and investing in our long-term strategy while continuing to deliver profitable growth.
And with that, operator, please open the call for Q&A.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Adam Tindle with Raymond James.
I'm just trying to do the fast math here on that guidance here, Steve. Curious what it implies in terms of the drivers of the SaaS line. In particular, obviously, ADT has been a little bit more public about their road map here. It looks like if I did the math correctly, you're going to be guiding to about 8% or at least the initial thought for SaaS growth for 2024 is around 8%, which is very healthy coming off of a 9% comparison. So not much deceleration. And I know you tend to be conservative on that. So maybe just some of the drivers that led you to this initial look on 2024, in particular, what the ADT assumption is in there?
Adam, this is Steve Trundle. I'll start with the ADT assumption, and then if Steve wants to pick up on anything else. But yes, you did the math correctly, first, so that's right. And what -- we're using the same, I think, data points that others have on ADT where public communication has been that they're going to initiate some activity by the end of this year with transition. So what in our model we're doing is we have that activity, meaning that transition modeled in to occur mostly in the first quarter of next year, sort of again late this year and then roll through the early part of next year.
Yes. And then, Adam, you're right, it's about 8% growth we're projecting. And as we always do in the initial look, it's 15 months out. So we're giving ourselves some room here for hopefully some beat and raise. And there is a challenging macroeconomic environment out there. I mean we've done quite well. But if you look at last year's initial look, we initially guided to about 6.3% growth, and we're coming in at about 8.6% growth for the year. So we always have some room that we allow ourselves there to be able to do it, being raised during the year.
Great. Yes. That's clear. And it looks like a healthy initial look. I guess maybe a question on the quarter, you had alluded to the hardware piece. And I know the story is more about the SaaS line here for Alarm.com, but do want to ask a little bit more on hardware? If you could unpack some of the drivers that led to the weakness in the quarter. And if I look at the Q4 guidance, it looks like it might be flat to slightly up sequentially if I did the math right on there for the full year. I know Q4 is typically a little bit of a seasonally soft hardware quarter given weather and installs and stuff like that. So looks like maybe some temporary items in Q3 and healthier Q4 outlook. I wonder if you could unpack the drivers in the hardware piece and assumptions.
Yes. So -- that's right, pretty much flat Q4. The drivers there were -- and really even looking into next year. First, starting with this year, A little bit of weakness in the commercial enterprise space. We just -- it's not that we're seeing orders kind of go away. We're just seeing the cycle taking longer than we expected. So -- in the last quarter, we saw a little weakness there. We had a couple of little supply chain issues that were more modest. And then even on the residential side, we're seeing a couple of things going on, fewer first -- many, many fewer LTE modules being sold because the upgrade cycle from 3G to LTE is mostly over at this point. So that's kind of been drying up. And then the last on the hardware side would just be the macro conditions are creating a world which is sort of good and bad for us in a way where you're having fewer moves on the residential side. So you're not doing as many new installations necessarily, but you're also having less churn on the residential side, where -- we expect probably revenue retention will trend up a little bit. So that's -- but you see slightly less hardware on the -- that side as well.
Our next question comes from Saket Kalia with Barclays.
Steve Trundle, maybe for you. Can we just talk a little bit about the growth businesses that you touched on last quarter. I can't remember if it was 30% of the business growing at 25% or vice versa, but it was a really interesting stat. I don't expect it's changed much in just one quarter. But curious if you could just expand on kind of what you're seeing in a couple of those big growth businesses.
Yes. The first year, recollection is correct. That's -- I think what we communicated last quarter was 30% of the growth businesses represented around 30% of the SaaS, and we're growing at around 25%. So that's continued. The drivers there are really EnergyHub being one, where we did recently put out a press release about this past year being really set a record-setting year for us with the number of events called and the number of -- I think it was over 1,800 events we've called year-to-date, meaning demand response events on behalf of utilities and moved around quite a few gigawatt hours of power. I believe more than 200% more power, we moved off the grid at key moments this year versus last year. So you're just seeing a lot more usage there, which allows us to keep growing that business. And then the team is focused right now on expanding into the broader resource space to include EVs in particular. So a lot of work going on there, and we see that as sort of another growth vector in that business. . The other couple of places are the international business, which continues to clip along at roughly that same growth rate in terms of their SaaS growth can be a little lumpy, but we still see mostly greenfields internationally, where we're in the early days of a bunch of new relationships and trying to help partners get up to scale and to adopt the full platform to sort of move from the basic interactive security offering to a full offering that includes video and elements of our automation solution.
And then the next would be just sort of the overall commercial play, both commercial intrusion, commercial access, and I guess, I should say also commercial video. Still fairly early there for us, continue to make good headway there, both in our core business and with the OpenEye video segment.
As I noted in my comments and as Steve noted, the third quarter, there was a little bit of a slowdown in the amount of hardware being sold through that channel. But overall, SaaS growth rates were the same, and we expect that to continue and to give us some tailwinds next year.
Got it. Got it. Maybe for my follow-up for you, Steve Valenzuela. So very helpful. It was very helpful to get a preliminary look at next year in Q3. And I know it is preliminary, but curious how you're thinking about legal costs for 2024?
Yes, it's a good point. Clearly, we have factored in some legal costs. It's important to point out, though, that A good portion of the legal spend for the major programs are now adjusted out to get to a certain stage. So we factored that into our adjusted EBITDA guide.
Our next question comes from Darren Aftahi with ROTH.
Congrats on the quarter. If I could double tap Steve Trundle on the commercial comments. I'm just trying to understand the relationship between is the sort of cycle for hardware a little elongated, and that's what kind of contributed to maybe some of the weakness in the quarter, but the underlying strength for the commercial demand is still there. Am I hearing that correctly?
Yes. That's -- Darren, that's what I was attempting to communicate. So we -- and again, this wasn't a major pullback, but it was just enough that it was a sort of noticeable. And we just -- from what we can tell, really beginning sort of mid-August, we started seeing some slower or delayed purchasing cycles were orders that were sort of in process might normally close and 3 or 4 weeks seem to drag on, drag out of the quarter. So that's sort of what I think we saw in the second half of the third quarter is just some tapering of intensity on the -- at the enterprise level primarily, meaning larger customers, large facilities, large big-box retailers quick-serve restaurants, places like that, that would typically be installing at a certain rate that's pretty predictable. That rate came down a bit in the second half of the third quarter. . We assume -- we don't know, but we assume like many people that folks are kind of trying to get a read on the overall economy right now and thinking about the velocity of their CapEx, expenditures and whether it's better to be in conservation mode or better be in sort of growth mode at the moment. So that's our best guess. We saw just a little bit of a slowdown in the third quarter in that space.
That's helpful. And then maybe one for Steve Valenzuela. Your free cash flow number is exceptionally strong. I'm just curious with the collections and the DSOs, I mean, is that a sustainable sort of working capital sort of pass-through beyond adjusted net income? I mean, how should we think about free cash flow in the fourth quarter based on the implied guide?
Yes. Q3 certainly was an extraordinary cash flow quarter. Everything came together. We can expect that on an ongoing basis. And in Q4, typically would be a weaker cash flow quarter. There is seasonality in that as well. So Q3, we had very favorable DSOs. We had inventory come down a bit. Q4, we also have the potential tax payment related to the new tax rules around R&D capitalization, which might have to be paid if Congress doesn't change that rule. And so yes, Q3 is certainly an extraordinary quarter for cash flow. But generally, if you look at the year-to-date cash flow of around $90 million, generally on a normal basis, the year-to-date or the year cash flow usually is around $90 million to $100 million. It's just that Q3, everything came together and generate that amount of cash flow.
Our next question comes from Matt Bullock with Bank of America.
I'm on for Mike Funk. Great to see strong EBITDA performance. I'm curious if you could provide us an update with whether or not the Vivint impact to revenue, EBITDA and I guess, legal expenses has tracked with the initial guidance you provided, I guess, it was about a year ago. Just trying to parse through whether or not some of this strong EBITDA performance is related to potentially lower legal expenses or how that's evolving?
Sure. Matt, yes, the EBITDA outperformance comes from a little bit stronger business than we expected at the beginning of the year. I would say success in executing on some belt tightening initiatives and driving more profitability in the business. But we also did get some benefit. I think at the beginning of -- you kind of referenced about a year ago, when that Vivint matter came up in Italy, we didn't really know. I think I probably said I don't know exactly how broad or how intense our legal burden would be, but I've got a budget for it at a reasonable -- a reasonably aggressive level. So we did budget for it. We haven't burned at quite the level. I think I telegraphed ballpark is $16 million on that at that time for this year. And we haven't burned at quite that level, but we've burned a healthy amount, and it's still an ongoing manner in the year. The year is not done, but I'd say it's been a little less intense than what I anticipated.
Our next question comes from Matthew Pfau with William Blair.
Great. Just ask for one more clarification on the legal expenses. There was a decent sequential uptick. What drove that in the quarter?
There is a lot of legal activity going on, as you can see. You'll be at to see in the 10-Q. And so it's really hard to predict the legal expense, right? Because depending on the timing of events and circumstances, it's very difficult to predict. But yes, it was up in the third quarter. I think it was $5.9 million compared to $3.1 million a year ago. And so it will fluctuate quarter-to-quarter depending on the timing of certain events.
Okay. Got it. And then as we think of the hardware guidance for 4Q and for 2024, does ADT rolling off to its own platform have any impact on the hardware line? Or is that just on the subscription line?
No. That also impacts the hardware line, and that is in our initial look model that we provided. So we would expect to see fewer devices to make cameras, door bells, et cetera, being sold as they execute their transition. So it does have an impact on the hardware line.
Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude the Q&A portion of today's conference and also concludes the conference itself. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.