Fox Factory Holding Corp
NASDAQ:FOXF
Earnings Call Analysis
Q4-2023 Analysis
Fox Factory Holding Corp
Despite an overall decrease in net sales and pressures from strikes and supply chain disruptions, there were some positive developments in 2023 for the company. Ecommerce continued to thrive, contributing significantly to direct-to-consumer sales, which showed an increase of 3.6%—a 260 basis point rise from the previous year. The e-bike category also grows, which the company believes will drive further industry growth.
Fourth-quarter sales decreased by 18.6% to $332.5 million compared to the same quarter in the previous year, and gross margin fell due to shifts in the portfolio mix and increased efficiencies not being enough to offset the decline. Net sales for the year dipped to $1.46 billion from $1.6 billion, and earnings per diluted share for the fiscal year 2023 were $2.85, a decline from $4.84 in the prior year. Adjusted gross margins also decreased by 300 basis points to 29% in Q4 2023 from 32% in the same period last year.
Operating expenses rose due to acquisitions, and the adjusted EBITDA decreased by 49.5% in Q4, with the margin falling by 710 basis points to 11.7%, reflecting changes in the portfolio mix and the impact of a UAW strike. Annual adjusted EBITDA also saw a reduction.
The company has an aggressive innovation roadmap, aiming to launch 160 new products, an increase from the previous year's 140, signaling continued dedication to product development and innovation, with significant R&D investment and high-performance model design targeting a range of price points, including the forthcoming advanced dual valve suspension system.
To counterbalance the softening of the market, Fox Factory is taking measures to optimize operations, including trimming factory shifts and pursuing continuous improvement. It is staying true to its product roadmap, ensuring future growth potential through sustained R&D spend and sales and marketing efforts.
The company anticipates struggles due to higher interest rates and macroeconomic concerns. For Q1 2024, sales are expected to range between $315 million and $350 million with adjusted EPS between $0.17 to $0.27. For the full fiscal year 2024, sales are projected to be between $1.53 billion and $1.68 billion with adjusted EPS of $2.30 to $2.60, assuming an income tax rate of 15% to 18%. These projections take into account expected improvements in Q2 as new bike models are released and interest rates potentially improve.
The company is also reducing the historical seasonality effect by diversifying its product offerings beyond its traditional bat business, and expects the second and third quarters to be strong. Production improvements in Q4 were hampered by the UAW strike, but the company is resuming its path to efficiency and overhead absorption as it tackles product launches and inventory issues.
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Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Fox Factory Holding Corporation's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the conference over to your host, Vivek Bhakuni, Senior Director of Investor Relations and Business Development. Thank you, sir. You may begin.
Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to Fox Factory's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. I'm joined today by Mike Dennison, our Chief Executive Officer; and Dennis Schemm, our Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. First, Mike will provide business updates and then Dennis will review the quarterly and full year financial results. And then the outlook followed by closing remarks for Mike. We will then open up the call for your questions. By now, everyone should have access to the earnings release, which went out today at approximately 4 or 5 Eastern Time. If you have not had a chance to review the release, it's available on the Investor Relations portion of our website at investor.ridefox.com. Please note that throughout this call, we will refer to Fox Factory as Fox or the company. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that the prepared remarks contain forward-looking statements within the meanings of federal securities law, and management may make additional forward-looking statements in response to your questions. Such statements involve a number of known and unknown uncertainties, many of which are outside the company's control and can cause future results, performance or achievements could differ materially from the results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Important factors and risks that could cause or contribute to such differences are detailed in the company's latest Form 10-Q and in the company's latest annual report on Form 10-K, each filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Except as required by law, the company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking or other statements herein, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. In addition, where appropriate in today's prepared remarks and within our earnings release, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures to evaluate our business, including adjusted gross profit, adjusted gross margin, adjusted operating expenses, adjusted net income, adjusted earnings per diluted share, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin as we believe these are useful metrics that allow investors to better understand and evaluate the company's core operating performance and trends. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in today's press release, which has also been posted on our website. And with that, it is my pleasure to turn the call over to our CEO, Mike Dennison.
Thank you, Vi. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today on our fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. Today, I will discuss our strategy, operating highlights and business activity. Dennis will then provide additional details on our financial results, balance sheet and outlook. After our prepared remarks, we will open the call for your questions. For the fourth quarter, we delivered $332 million in revenue, which included approximately $17 million in revenue contribution from Marucci. The fourth quarter was a quarter which saw wins in achievements as well as significant headwinds exhibited with the ongoing OE challenges, which we began to see after Labor Day. And our current view is these will persist in the first half of 2024. As we have previously highlighted, 3 main factors created these challenges to near-term results. One, the ongoing inventory recalibration in bike; 2, the impact of the UAW strike on PVG and AAG and 3, higher interest rates causing customers to be more conservative in their purchasing practices. The successes which provided partial offsets within the quarter included year-on-year growth in our aftermarket components businesses such as wheel, lift kits and aftermarket shocks as well as ecommerce growth within our bike business. While these product lines and channels grew, they were unable to offset the declines in OE impacted areas of our business. In the Powered Vehicle Group, net sales were $118 million, down from $133 million in the prior year quarter due to the direct impact of the UAW strike on our production and the indirect impact of the strike on original equipment manufacturers who ramped slowly as expected, following the strike's conclusion. This combination of direct and indirect influence from the strike resulted in lower production, which led to lower sales. Some OEs were covered by the end of November, while others exhibited sharp declines in order volume through the end of the quarter. Based on our consistent long-term growth within the PVG business and the importance of retaining a highly trained and skilled workforce to make our technologically advanced products, we elected not to lay off or shut down any facilities during or after the strike. Consequently, the costs associated with these actions had a significant impact on profitability. Powersports also saw less demand from OEs as their distributors and dealers work through elevated inventory levels and seasonality factors, including a warm winter, driving down sales in the snowmobile market. To further complicate the problem, high interest rates continue to cause conservatism due to inflated floor plan financing costs. On the positive side for PVG, even with the external headwinds just mentioned, this business grew organically for the year by 21% over the prior year, illustrating the growth of our market share and the power of our product portfolio. In a year with so many businesses in this space exiting reduced revenue, we grew significantly. In the Aftermarket Applications group, sales rose to $121 million from $117 million in the prior year quarter. The primary contributor to the increase was our custom wheelhouse business, which delivered nearly $20 million in revenue in the quarter. In addition, record quarters in Sport Truck and overall expanded ecommerce solutions contributed to the growth. However, the UAW strike had a significant impact on our updating business, primarily due to limited chassis availability and chassis mix caused by production delays at factories, which were shut down due to the strike. As we saw in Powersports, the high interest rate environment put pressure on floor plan financing. And as a result, dealers took a more conservative position on inventory. Positively, dealers are reducing existing aged inventory ahead of the release of a slew of new redesigned model-year vehicles, which are expected to launch throughout the year. These model year changes will be an exciting opportunity for us as we develop and launch new packages in conjunction with these new models. Expansion in our kit sales is also driving future growth in our upfit business. Customers are remaining resilient on fresh, new product releases and higher contented vehicles, especially the Shelby and Harley-Davidson branded trucks. In SSG, with respect to bike, OEs continue to work down the inventory levels. Our OE partners have begun to place new orders for model year '25 product, which is a positive sign that we will begin returning to a normal environment in late Q2. In the quarter, Bike generated $77 million in net sales, less than half of the $159 million of revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022. The OE 2025 model year launches remain scheduled to begin midyear, and we are excited as our innovative new products have maintained and gained spec share across our customers. While it's too early to articulate the volume of model year '25 bikes that will ultimately be ordered, we are excited by our share of whatever volume that will eventually be. The Marucci acquisition closed on November 14. Marucci generated $17 million in net sales following the completion of the acquisition. These results were better than our expectations for both the top and bottom lines, especially since the prior year period included the CapEx that launch. The key drivers from Marucci's revenue were strong new product sales driven by direct-to-player and team sales plus additional product launches in Japan led by aluminum and wood bats. Like our other businesses, we are inspired by the level of execution in the merchant team and our ability to have an incredible product road map across all product lines throughout 2024. Reflecting on the full year 2023, which was clearly a tale of 2 halves, the first half of the year generally on plan and as expected in the back half of the year, especially after Labor Day, where previously discussed headwinds grew significantly. Overall, we delivered $1.46 billion in net sales, down 9% from 2022. All of the year-on-year decrease is attributable to Specialty Sports Group, where our bike business was down $309 million year-on-year or 45%, as OEs dealt with a massive inventory glut.We continue to have confidence that this is a fixable problem for these companies and that the back half of 2024 will begin to return to a more normal operating environment. Bike is well positioned as OEs turn to new model year launches and product expansion, some of which are already in our back half forecast. In the face of Q4 sales that were below expectations and an expected soft first half of 2024, we are laser-focused on the key elements of our brand and product development, which make us best-in-class and are the keys to our long-term success. Those elements are maintaining our brand relationship where we have gained spec share across customers, ensuring that we will grow with these customers as they regain their health. Meanwhile, remaining vigilant to not dilute our brand for an easy revenue pickup. Investment in research and development with 2 objectives. First, to support model year '25 releases that we believe will introduce innovative and best-in-class products and thereby expand our share of the market. And second, new launches within our aftermarket components where margins are typically higher than sales to OEs or through dealers and distributors. A bright spot was our recently expanded ecommerce business that expanded on 2023's record high direct-to-consumer sales, which were 3.6% of sales last year, up 260 basis points from 2022. And finally, the ongoing growth of our e-bike category, which we continue to believe will expand the demographic of riders and drive growth within the industry. On to PVG, which delivered $524 million, up 21% year-on-year due to multiyear momentum gains with Toyota and Ford and strong mix improvements as high-end vehicles in automotive and power sports, upgraded to more technologically advanced FOX suspension products. Our recent product launches included the most advanced suspension product ever developed for a vehicle, the dual valve system currently being utilized by Ford on their upcoming Raptor R platform. AAG was up 13% year-on-year to $551 million, mainly in the custom Wheelhouse acquisition and strength in our upfit business despite the impact of dealer floor plan financing and the UAW impact. However, we are encouraged that the higher-end updates continue to see strong consumer demand and interest. We continue to have confidence in our upfitting business, which this year will expand into UTVs and high-end side-by-sides beginning in late Q1. We believe these high contented vehicles will perform well with the affluent customer base that wants unique, customized, high-performance vehicles. As we move to 2024, we remain confident in our diverse and differentiated business model, all of which is focused on delivering the highest level of performance defining products and the growth that it can deliver. For the full year of 2024, we see revenues growing to $1.53 billion to $1.68 billion, inclusive of Marucci. Our conservatism in this guide is a direct reflection of the conservatism exhibited by our OE customer forecast across all of our businesses, which we will not second guess. When their forecasts improve, our guide will improve. We also believe 2024 will be the inverse of what we saw in '23, with the first half of 2024 continuing to be impacted by the same macro pressures that affected the third and fourth quarter continuing to weigh on our business. Again, this is directly aligned with our OEM customers forecast as well. Consequently, we expect the first half of 2024 to be down year-over-year with the second quarter being sequentially stronger than the first quarter. In the second half of 2024, we expect to see growth driven by easing macro pressures and improved consumer outlook with expected interest rate easing. While this is likely the case, we cannot be sure of timing or magnitude of these rate reductions. We also believe bike OEs turn the corner from discounting to launching model year 2025 releases. And finally, chassis availability and mix improvement in our upfitted truck product lines. To conclude, we acknowledge the near-term exogenous challenges in front of us. Yet at the same time, I am very pleased with our strategic positioning. We have diversification across 3 growing groups in AG, PVG and SSG anchored by industry-leading aspirational brands, deep-rooted customer loyalty, driven by the pro athletes and robust pipelines of innovative market disrupting products and our incredibly talented and dedicated team members. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Dennis.
Thanks, Mike, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll begin by discussing our fourth quarter and full year financial results and then move to our balance sheet and cash flows, capital structure strategy and then wrap up with a review of our guidance. Total consolidated net sales in the fourth quarter of 2023 were $332.5 million, a decrease of 18.6% versus sales of $408.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. The Powered Vehicles Group, PVG, delivered a 10.7% decrease in net sales in the fourth quarter compared to the same quarter last year. This performance was negatively impacted in October during the UAW strike given OE manufacturing site closures and for the remainder of the year on a slower ramp-up given OE supply chain disruptions. Strike, along with the slower-than-anticipated ramp-up also delayed upcoming development programs with OEs, which we expect will impact first half sales for 2024. PVG also had reduced sales in power sports, given dealer and distributor conservatism with inventory. We expect this conservatism to continue into the first half of 2024. Our aftermarket applications group, AAG, delivered a 3.5% increase in net sales in the fourth quarter compared to the same quarter last year. This growth was primarily driven by sales from the Custom Wheelhouse acquisition and aftermarket lift kits and suspension sales, partially offset by lower sales in the upfitting business because of reduced chassis availability, mix and dealer and distributor conservatism by holding lower inventory due to higher interest rates. Net sales in the Specialty Sports Group decreased 41.4% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 due to the persistent level of high inventory across various channels and therefore, fewer new model year launches. This result also includes a $16.8 million positive revenue contribution from the Marucci acquisition. Excluding the impact of Marucci, SSG sales declined by 52%. On a full year basis, sales were $1.46 billion versus $1.6 billion in 2022. The decrease in full year sales is driven entirely by the decline in SSG's bike sales. The decline in SSG's bike overshadows significant accomplishments in PVG and AAG, which grew over 21.2% and 12.7% for the full year, even when taking into consideration the UAW strike, the slow ramp-up after the strike's conclusion and the mix and chassis allocation decline that impacted our upfit business. While we address the dealer conservatism, the chassis allocation mix impact and model year changeovers, which are delaying sales, I think it's important to note that our upfit business has grown more than 40% over the last 2 years. Fox Factory's gross margin was 27.7% in the fourth quarter of 2023, a 430 basis point decrease from 32% in the same period in the prior year. The decrease in gross margin in Q4 2023 is primarily driven by a shift in our portfolio mix with lesser sales from high-margin bike and upfitting, the impact of the UAW strike as we absorb less costs given our decreased production and our decision to maintain our manufacturing workforce, offset by increased efficiencies at our North American facilities. Adjusted gross margin, which excludes the effects of amortization of acquired inventory valuation markup, organizational restructuring expenses and strategic transformation costs decreased 300 basis points to 29% versus 32% in Q4 of 2022. On an annual basis, both gross and adjusted gross margin decreased by 150 and 60 basis points, respectively. The decrease in gross margin was primarily due to a shift in the portfolio mix, offset by increased efficiencies at our North American facilities. Total operating expenses were $81 million or 24.4% of sales in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to $74.2 million or 18.1% of sales in the fourth quarter of last year. Operating expenses as a percentage of sales were higher compared to the same quarter in the prior period due to the inclusion of Custom Wheelhouse and Marucci operating expenses and the amortization of intangibles, partially offset by cost controls and continuous improvement. Adjusted operating expenses as a percentage of sales increased by 440 basis points to 20.6% in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to 16.2% in the same period in the prior year. On an annual basis, total operating expenses were $304.7 million or 20.8% of net sales for fiscal year 2023 compared to $284.6 million or 17.8% of net sales for fiscal year 2022. Operating expenses increased by $20 million, primarily due to the inclusion of Custom Wheelhouse and Marucci operating expenses of $15 million and $6 million, respectively. Amortization of additional acquired intangibles and operating expenses associated with facility expansion, partially offset by strong cost controls. Adjusted operating expenses were $268.1 million or 18.3% of sales in the fiscal year 2023 compared to $257.1 million or 16% of net sales in the prior year. The company's effective tax benefit was $3.1 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023 compared to an effective tax expense of $0.2 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022. The decrease in the company's income tax expense was primarily due to a decrease in pretax income. For the full year, the company's effective tax expense was $17.8 million versus $28.5 million in the prior year period due to a lower pretax net income. Net income in the fourth quarter of 2023 was $4 million or $0.10 per diluted share compared to $53 million or $1.25 per diluted share in the same prior year period. Adjusted net income was $20.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, a decrease of approximately $40.6 million or 66.7% compared to $60.8 million in the fourth quarter of last year. We delivered $0.48 of adjusted earnings per diluted share in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to $1.43 in the fourth quarter of 2022. On a full year basis, net income was $120.8 million compared to $205.3 million in the prior fiscal year. Earnings per diluted share for fiscal year 2023 were $2.85 compared to $4.84 in fiscal year 2022. Adjusted net income in fiscal year 2023 was $167.5 million or $3.95 of adjusted earnings per diluted share compared to $232.7 million or $5.49 of adjusted earnings per diluted share for the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 49.5% to $38.8 million for the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to $76.8 million in the same quarter last year. Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased by 710 basis points to 11.7% in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to 18.8% in the fourth quarter of 2022. The decrease in the adjusted EBITDA margin in the fourth quarter of 2023 was primarily due to the change in the portfolio mix, the impact of the UAW strike and the slow ramp-up after the strike ended, the decision to keep our highly trained workforce and cost increases associated with our facilities expansion to support our continued growth. Adjusted EBITDA decreased to $261 million in fiscal year 2023 compared to $321.8 million in fiscal year 2022. Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased to 17.8% in fiscal year 2023 compared to 20.1% in fiscal year 2022. Moving to the balance sheet and cash flows. Our balance sheet continues to be a source of strength for Fox and underpins our capital allocation strategy. The increase in inventory of $21.2 million is driven by the inclusion of $52.5 million of inventory from Marucci and $13.5 million from Custom Wheelhouse. Excluding Marucci in Custom wheelhouse, we decreased inventory by $44.7 million, driven by lower sales and by our continuous improvement efforts to further optimize inventory across the organization. The increase in goodwill and intangibles reflects the Custom wheelhouse and Marucci acquisitions. Our net leverage is 2.3x as of year-end and in line with our expectations. Our flexible capital structure gives us the ability to invest in growth through R&D, CapEx and sales and marketing and provides the optionality to repurchase shares and pay down debt. Our revolver balance as of December 29, 2023, is $370 million versus $200 million as of December 30, 2022. Our term loan A balance is $380 million. We drew $400 million from our existing revolver and $400 million from our new term loan during 2023 to finance our purchase of Custom Wheelhouse in March 2023 and Marucci in November of 2023 and to support our working capital. These withdrawals were partially offset by $230 million in payments on our revolver and $20 million in prepayments on our new term loan. In the third quarter of 2023, our Board of Directors approved a $300 million share repurchase program. During the fourth quarter, we repurchased $25 million in shares at an average purchase price of $58.8 per share. CapEx spend for the quarter was $14.8 million, up 81.8% versus the prior year quarter of $8.1 million. CapEx for the full year was $46.9 million, up 7.2% versus the prior year spend of $43.7 million. The increase in CapEx spend in the fourth quarter is due to SSG's Bite test and Innovation Lab, upgrades to PPG's machine shop and its power sports upfit capacity. Additionally, we stayed true to our capital allocation tenants and invested back into our core. In R&D, we invested $13.8 million. And in sales and marketing, we invested $25.8 million, representing 4.2% and 7.8% of sales versus 3.8% and 5%, respectively, in the prior year period. For the full year, we invested $53.2 million in R&D and $100.5 million in sales and marketing, representing 3.6% and 6.9% of sales, respectively, versus 3.5% and 5.7%, respectively, in the prior year period. In PVG, our R&D efforts resulted in 141 new SKUs during the year, and we are looking to introduce north of 160 in 2024. In SSG's bike, our investments continue to drive innovation supporting podium-winning Fox riders in both suspension and in components. We are proud that we continue to gain in spec share as well, and we are advancing exciting new releases in the e-bike space. And in AAG, we are focusing on multiple growth vectors. We continue to invest in improving content and design for our off-road upfitting business and in our new business venture in side-by-side updating where we are designing premium, high-performance state-of-the-art models to cater to different price points. And lastly, we are heavily investing and expanding our e-commerce capabilities across all of our business groups. Now I would like to share some select guidance. We continue facing headwinds in AAG and PVG due to the higher interest rate environment and macroeconomic outlook at the consumer level and at the dealer distributor level as the cost of carrying inventory is more expensive. While SSG's bike hit trough like levels in the fourth quarter, we expect to see further declines in the first half with the first quarter of 2024 being the lowest since the destocking began as the inventory recalibration is taking longer than anticipated, and consumer demand is expected to decline year-over-year, but will be partially offset by new product launches and growth in ecommerce. For the first quarter of 2024, we expect sales in the range of $315 million to $350 million and non-GAAP adjusted earnings per diluted share in the range of $0.17 to $0.27. Our net sales and EPS are lower year-on-year in Q1, given the continuation of bike OE destocking, overhang from the UAW strike that impacted chassis availability and mix, model year changeover timing, which is delaying dealer purchases and weaker demand from power sports and PVG. We expect to see sequential improvement into the second quarter as Bike OEs prepare for model year 2025 releases, chassis mix and availability improve, model year change for RAM is launched and the expectation that the interest rate environment improves. As a result, we expect the first half of 2024 to decline year-over-year for expanding to growth in the second half of 2024. For the fiscal year 2024, the company expects sales in the range of $1.53 billion to $1.68 billion and adjusted earnings per diluted share of $2.30 to $2.60. Our full year guidance assumes an income tax rate to be in the range of 15% to 18%. Our belief is that this race will be won by the innovator and given our robust pipeline of innovative products, industry-leading market share and best-in-class brands, we believe our product road map supports our 2025 vision of $2 billion in sales. However, our vision of $2 billion in sales and 25% EBITDA margins will depend on several factors, including uncertainties on volume and product mix since we are largely tied to OEMs, the larger macro environment, including interest rates and our exit rate in Q4 of this year. As a result, we will revisit 2025 aspirations in the second half of this year when we have more visibility. We're certainly operating in a dynamic environment, and we'll continue to watch retail and consumer trends to adjust our cost and business model accordingly. However, because of our strong and flexible capital structure, we are working from a position of strength during this downturn and investing in our future. With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Mike.
Thank you, Dennis. As we start the new year, we recognize that we are still managing through some of the same challenges that we faced last year. However, I have never had more conviction in this business or this team based on a number of product launches, new customer relationships, exciting developments around EV platforms, the ability to sustain and increase our pricing based on innovation and advanced product development and our international expansion. There is much to be proud of in our accomplishments, and I am energized by a future where we are shifting into a higher gear across the enterprise. The team remains galvanized on winning as we prove every day in every way. Armed with a strong balance sheet, cash flow and our 1 plus 1 equals 3 strategy, I cannot be more excited about our positioning and our future. I would now like to open the call for questions. Operator?
[Operator Instructions] And we'll take our first question today from Larry Solow with CJS Securities.
I guess the first question, Mike, lots of moving parts. It feels like not a lot of new issues, but the issues have just seemed to gotten deeper and a little -- probably a little worse. I guess what --clearly, your guidance builds in a big ramp up, not only in sales but in margin as the year progresses. You talked about exit rate. I'm sure you're not ready to share what your guidance incorporates in terms of what you're exiting the year, but clearly a lot higher than what you started the year.I get the year with your vision today, what -- how much of that correction from today to year-end is just driven by improved fasten supply, OEM production and slowdown in inventory destocking, which hopefully maybe that's a little bit less certain. But if you can get more of those improvements versus kind of an improvement in demand that you need to drive from today to year-end. If you can get out of that question just kind of can you bucket like how much of that -- the improvement is driven by some of the demand versus some of the things that hopefully will improve just over time?
That's a good question. And a lot of questions. So let me take a minute to try to piece through that some feedback. The things that give us positivity towards the back half of the year are the number of product launches that start now and continue through the year. So internally, the things that we can control, as you know, are quality of product, product innovation, product launches. And as an example, in PVG, alone, PVG alone, we're launching 160 new products this year alone.That's over 140 that we launched in 2023 to support 2024. And a year prior to that it was 42. So you can see that we have been on arguing relative to driving new product development, which is key to our business. So our product portfolio and our product road map this year supports that exit rate, that vision for the back half. What we need to materialize to continue to drive volume with those product launches are things like model year '25 is going to happen in bike, we're really comfortable with that. But what are the volumes of model year '25 bikes. Tat's the question. That needs to materialize. We do see interest rates start to come down a little bit to give consumers more confidence in those big spend items. Again, on the high end of our range with a highly affluent customer, less impacted, but in that middle range, those interest rates do matter. So that macro has to continue to improve in the back half. And then OEMs just got to get back to the forecast. What we saw in the late Q4 time frame was OEMs really backed up their commitments on forecast. Interestingly enough, when you think about what it was like in COVID, Larry, where they would under forecast and we would over deliver because they come back and ask for more. We got a new environment in '24, especially late '23, where they over-forecasted and then backed off massively. And so we've learned a lot in this process. And now when we think about their forecast, we're pretty conservative and we tend to hedge down versus hedge up like we had to do in years past. You're seeing that, too. So we have to get back to actual forecast that we can believe in. And as we do that, I think we'll be in great shape.
And have you seen -- I mean, real switch in demand. I get that the interest rate environment, higher interest rate, the dealers don't want to hold as much vehicles. But in terms of end market demand, are you actually getting at least in some of your higher end markets on the vehicle side, are you seeing any actual customer slowdown too? Or are you just more fearful that, that could occur in this environment?
I think we're not seeing customer slowdown in aftermarket for sure. So maybe customers are moving away from buying a brand-new vehicle. They're fixing the one they have in the driveway. We talked about that as many of you know. That's one of the things that we have going for us in the portfolio is that if OEM business slows down because new vehicles sales slow down, then the aftermarket picks up.I'll tell you this though, on the OEM side, when we talked about Raptor and Raptor R, and a lot of those projects, Race Raptor, they're at max capacity in 2024. So they're not seeing anything in the sales of those units. So we have a lot of conviction that that customer has stayed just as strong. It's in other parts of the business where we see some of that start to soften.
Got it. And then just last question. It sounds like there's not much in terms of cost cutting. You're not cost cutting too much because you're expecting a rebound in these businesses, right? So the margins will likely suffer down in Q1, maybe even a little bit worse than they were in Q4 and then start to improve just as absorption improves, leverage improves in the back half of the year. Is that a good way to look at it?
That's a great way to look at it. We're doing some optimization in the corporate side just to be better and more efficient. That's just improvement in my mind, it should be an ongoing event. We're doing some trimming in factories where for whatever reason we don't need a shift right now or we don't need a certain night shift or something like that.But for the majority of this, we understand that we're in a near-term problem. And it's hard to find great people, and we have a huge amount of conditioning in our long-term future. So we're sticking to our guns and sticking to the product road map.
Yes. So you'll see sales, marketing, R&D, we're going to continue to spend. All through this period. I think it's the right move for the future.
Next, we'll hear from Alex Perry with Bank of America.
First, I was just hoping we could give some more color about how you're thinking about the various business segments for the year, maybe SSG versus PVG and AAG from a growth rate standpoint. And then I guess if we just isolate the legacy SSG business, how are you thinking about that coming in versus the $370 million that you did in 2023?
Yes. Good question, Alex. So we'll talk SSG specifically here for a second. So we're not expecting -- you'll see it in the guide. You can see it obviously in the guide. We're not expecting any improvement in SSG this year just as a function of the first half being down and the back half kind of recovering the inversion of 2023 and 2024 as Dennis talked about.So we'd like to see improvement in that business this year. We think there's an opportunity for improvement in that business this year. But our forecast visibility there is -- or our PO visibility is pretty short, about 45 days. So while our customers give us -- as you heard from my answer to Larry, as customers give these glowing forecasts that we love to see, we take that as a big grain of salt. And so right now, we don't have that baked into our numbers. And so we're expecting that business to be flat to down in '24. In other businesses, it's really a reflection -- it's going to be a reflection of powersports namely and PVG and potentially some in the automotive space as they go through their cycle changes and things like that. But that's really been driven by OEM. We've got our aftermarket built absolutely where we want to build. We're going to do a lot of product launches in aftermarket that will help us. But when there's so much volume in OEM, the sales and their forecast [ rights ] were tough. And so we're, again, really in this forecast and hedging this forecast to give us some room for improvement later in the year.
And relative to AAG, I mean, this is mainly a flattish year for them in the -- since that we've got -- the outfitting business is relatively flat, but we also have the new side-by-side operation going into effect that I think will help us offset some of that decline that we're seeing in the first half of the upfit business.
Perfect. That's very helpful. And then just one other modeling question. What is the expected merchant contribution in 2024? Any help on sort of how that plays out by quarter given the seasonality of the business?
Yes. A little -- putting me in a little challenging position here because Coty certainly has not gone live yet with the results of Marucci. But what we do know is this, like through 3 quarters last year, Marucci delivered about $144 million. With us, they did $17 million. So essentially, you're at $160 million. And so you just got to account for that period of time, October to November where Coty has not reported yet.My take on it is they probably had a bigger October and early November because that would have been pre Black Friday sales. So roughly speaking, I'm guessing these guys were probably around $180 million, $185 million-ish. How I would get there. I think that would be normal assumptions that you guys could make as well. And then so just put some growth on top of that, right? That's probably the best way to look at it without me giving you more details. Does that make sense?
Yes. That's incredibly helpful.
Our next question will come from Craig Kennison with Baird.
On the Powersports side, I'm curious how recently your Powersport OEM customers reset their order pattern with you?
Yes. I would -- it's not digital, Craig, Think about it as a bit more analog, but it started kind of post Labor Day and it kind of carried into Q4. The biggest shift is probably really late in Q4, call it, December and early January. And the reduction between December and early February was significant.So that's what really caused us to go. You know what? We're not going to take these forecasts at face value. We're going to back off because we think these customers are in the process of backing up on their own and they're just not telling us yet. So that's what you're sensing from us is that conservatism is really just coming from as we saw the really significant reduction in December to February, that they're having some inventory challenges.
Yes, that helps. We've done some work in that area. It just feels like there is an inventory issue. And I'm wondering whether the recent glut that we've detected has been processed in your guidance or whether there's still another signal for the whole channel to absorb?
On our guidance. We -- like I said, we've taken the forecast that we get, and we've hedged them down based on what we're seeing in the actual real time basis. Could it get worse potentially? The good news is we're actually approaching some new customers and some new products this year in that space that might help offset some of that. So like I said before, product development and product road map is everything for us. And I think we can help offset some of this with some of that. It's just we don't -- we're not going to buy into the current forecast that we would be given for the year and believe it completely.
Our next question will come from Michael Swartz with Truist Securities.
Just thinking about the bike business, I mean, maybe you provide a little more color around your commentary on the model year '25 changeover and the timing there within. And also, are you seeing any difference in the behavior between some of the larger global OEMs and some of the more domestic-oriented customers?
Yes, great question, Mike. My perspective is this, what we're seeing is the smaller boutique, whether it's in Europe or here in the U.S. companies by companies that are exiting that inventory problem or have already exited that inventory problem are already back on the gas. And we're taking POs now for model year '25 with those companies, which is obviously a great sign of positivity, right?That's the good side. The bad side is, while we have tons of spec on model year '25 launches for later in the year with the big global guys that you referred to, we're confident they'll have -- they will move to model year '25. What we're conservative about is what's the volume behind that model 25 launch that they're actually going to have. So we're pretty comfortable that all the companies will be on model year '25 by late Q3. It's just a function of what the volume of model year '25 as they exit their inventory challenges. So that's how we're kind of reading it. We love our stack. We're gaining stack. We've got some great new product launches. We're actually seeing some products that we just recently launched sell out fairly quickly in the aftermarket. So there's some green shoots out there. It's just too early to say we've won the war of this destocking that we've all faced. And you do have to give us some time before we be that aggressive about it.
And then maybe for Dennis, you just referenced it adding some growth for the Marucci business in '24 as it pertains to what's embedded in your guidance. Maybe remind us again what the big growth opportunities are in that business, maybe both '24 and longer term?
One of the things that really impressed us when we purchased them back in November was the multiple growth vectors that they had. And some of them that we're expecting to capitalize on this year, they're clearly continuing to see strong growth in the Bats, strong growth in Softball. It's probably one of the fastest-growing sports out there. I feel like we're well positioned to demonstrate some growth there as well. They've got some really, really cool apparel launches and try to keep a tight lip on those, but those are due to come out as well this year.And then we'll see continued expansion on the Hitters House as well. And so that should be revenue generating for us too. So again, lots of strong growth opportunities here and then strong accretion in the margin side as well. One final point. International expansion is pretty significant, too. So be expecting some news there as well just because we're getting more of a presence there in Japan, and so we should start to see some acceleration there.
Okay. And just a follow-up on Marucci. Are you embedding any material synergies? I know you've talked about the cost synergies. Are you embedding any of those in the '24 outlook?
Not in '24. I think there are opportunities for that in '25. There's some work to do in '24. And I don't think there are significant opportunities, by the way, but we're not putting that in our guidance.
Our next question will come from Bret Jordan with Jefferies.
A follow-up, I guess, on the Marucci -- the seasonality, I think you talked about maybe $180 million, but maybe some strength around things like fall sales. But how do we think about that on a -- I think it sells into the start of baseball season and maybe softens after that, but what's the quarterly shakeout?
The seasonality is usually more extreme than it is now, Brett. With the newest product launches that Dennis referred to in the different spaces, not just Bats and the rest of the product portfolio. Again, 45% of the business today is not Bats per se. So that's taking some of that seasonality out. And I think you'll see the biggest quarters typically used to be historically Q4 and Q1. What we're seeing now is Q3 is actually quite a big quarter for them. So it's Q3, Q4. The lighter quarter probably being -- a little bit lighter quarter being Q2.But it really comes down to what products we launch and when. And as we enter some of these spaces, I think we can absorb that even further into a more even revenue throughout the year.
Okay. And then, I guess we haven't talked the last couple of quarters about the margin potential from Gainesville production leverage. Is that something that -- is there a number we need to get back to before you start getting the fixed overhead absorption there? Or have you changed your thoughts as far as the ever 250 basis points plus of margin potential from that facility?
We saw a lot of improvement in '23, although Q4, we didn't see any, of course, as we called out in our prepared remarks, just because of UAW. So we're back on that path now in Q1, and we'll keep pushing all those new improvements throughout the year. But we came a long way until, let's say, Labor Day and then just some softness in the UAW. So we know what to do, volume does matter to your point. So once we get past UAW and then moving forward, I think we'll see that come back in.
Our next question will come from Anna Glaessgen with Riley.
I guess I'm trying to understand a little bit better what's changed since we last spoke in November or the last report. It seems like the UAW strike impact, at least at that point, was fairly well understood. We had started incorporating higher interest rates in terms of dealer reluctance to take inventory. Would it be fair then to say that this powersports shift and inventory recalibration is kind of the biggest piece that's loosened some? Or any way to kind of frame out those buckets a little bit more would be great.
I think in general, visibility really is just a function of OEM forecasting and OEM softness. And I don't think that's just in powersports, although that's probably the major contributor in December and Q1. We do see some softening in the automotive space, not necessarily in the high-end vehicles, but on other vehicles. We see some softening in AAG just relative to floor plan financing, as we've called out in the past.Is it more significant? Yes and no. It's really a function of floor plan financing tied to do you have the right product on the right lot. If it's a Shelby truck at $120,000 plus, you're fine. If it's a $75,000 RAM truck, you may not be fine. So it's just a function of macro interest rates and mix. And I think that stuff works itself out. It's nothing -- again, it's nothing around product development or product road map issues. It's just around -- you have to have something new and fresh for a consumer to want to spend their money. I think you're seeing that in all companies like ours. If you can create something that's enticing to a consumer, they're going to pull up their law and to spend money. And if you don't, then it can be a problem. So these product launches in 2024 are going to be incredibly important to our growth and success this year.
And I think the other thing to add to that, Mike, would just be bike certainly was a little softer than what we had expected when we were out with you in November. So clearly, there's been some deterioration in demand. And so we built that into the forecast. This is in the first quarter. We should start seeing growth there in the second quarter as more and more of these OEMs go to that model year '25.
It's a good point. You've heard me say the faster they get out of this problem, the better off we're going to be. So if they have to take more pain, just take it and get it done. I'm not so worried about a quarter, whether it's Q4 or Q1. I want to get back to a normalized business pattern, where our product waves and spec share show how differentiated we are. But I can't get there until they get through the stuff. So it's like just take the pain and go, let's deal with it.
I just want to clarify one. Did you -- Dennis, did you say back to growth in 2Q? Or was it the second half?
Sequential growth, we should see Q1 to Q2 be sequential growth. And then the back half would be growth with our current expectations.
Got it. And on that, going back to some of the prepared comments, I think you said SSG should be like the lowest level in 1Q since the destocking started. So that would be the sub $72 million in 3Q. Is that the right way to think about that?
That is absolutely correct. We will be lower than $72 million.
Our final question will come from Jim Duffy with Stifel.
I appreciate the difficult environment for sure, and I appreciate visibility is a challenge. With that in mind, can you help us a little more detail on your process and the assumptions that are shaping the guide? And I wanted to dig in some on the upfit business, which has been a big driver in recent years, dealerships have been destocking. I appreciate floor plan financing has been a challenge. Where are they in the destocking process? Like how much aged inventory is still around? Is there a framework you guys used to think about this, be it number of dealerships, vehicles per dealership that type of thing?
Yes. I mean, framing up some of those components, again, just starting with SSG, we are off to a slower start in Q1. We are experiencing those trough levels now because of demand, because of where the OEs are at right now. And that's clearly a pretty significant factor in the guide, right? So just a softer SSG business overall year-on-year, so flat to down year-on-year, but especially in the first half.From a PVG perspective, again, last year, fantastic growth when you think about it with 21% year-over-year growth with a UAW headwind and a slow ramp-up. And as we start to move into Q1, that Power Sports division is off to a slower start. And so that's clearly built into our guide, and that's shaping a tougher mountain for them this year because of a weaker Powersports group. And that's -- we're seeing that with the dealers and distributors just having a tougher time with the floor plan financing there. And then in AAG, again, fantastic growth over the last couple of years with the upfit business. I mean, it was 40% from -- for 2 years back to back. And so that growth is fantastic in the LTIP business. But this year, definitely slower just because we're not getting the right chassis. We're not getting enough chassis. And then you have dealer floor plan financing, just really inhibiting dealers on taking more risk and putting the product on their lot. And so that's having a pretty significant influence on us and quite frankly, from a margin standpoint as well. Does that help?
It does. Just more on the upfit business, are you close to a point where sell-in can more closely match sell-through? Or is there even an opportunity for restocking in that upfit business given all the destocking that's happened on dealer lots as year unfolds?
Jim, this is Mike. Let me jump in. So what we're seeing from the dealers is a very conservative approach to model year changes. So let's say you're a RAM dealer. RAM has had the same truck 4 or 5 years. They haven't updated that truck in the last 5 years. And so while there's inventory available for them to put on their lot right now, they're holding out for model year '25, which is actually going to get launched in early '24. So you'll find dealers who, because of floor-plan financing, don't want to go with the current model year because they're just going to wait for the next model year. In this case, it's going to come out fairly early in the year.So you've got a challenged dealer who's really trying to understand what do I want to have on my lot and when, and how many vehicles do I want to have on my lot. It's a dynamic that is pretty interesting. And it just means, as I said before, it's going to come down to do you have the new product, the new models with the new test and packages. When you have that, the selling and sell-through will work out just fine. I don't think it's going to be a problem at all. Even if we're still in a bit of an elevated interest rate world, I think if you can show the customer something new and fresh, they're going to come buy it. And we feel the same way that side by set upfitting. But it really comes down to when those models, new model year vehicles launch and how fast can we get our custom upfit model year trucks out on the dealer lots to sell.
Last question for me, I'll take the rest offline. But I'm still trying to get my arms around the influence from the UAW strike. Which platforms have been most influenced by the UAW strike? And I'm curious like how this rolls forward. Is there a catch-up opportunity from the strike? When would that start to manifest in the numbers? And then specific to that auto OEM business, is there now a difference in the timing for new platforms like the Ranger Raptor or even the ramp of production for vehicles like the Bronco Raptor and so forth, which we had been thinking about as nice incremental contributors.
Yes. It's interesting because we're not being told that UAW specifically changed a launch time frame for a vehicle from our OEMs. And it looks to us like some of these things where UAW potentially induced. And so we saw some things push into Q1 of this year that we're supposed to be launched in Q4 of last year. So there is some implication there. Again, nobody says that outright, Jim. So it's hard for us to just make that statement, but we would infer that from what we've seen.I think what we saw was some companies, OEMs were faster to get back on production in November and others really kind of let the year play out. I think they had enough inventory out there and the dealers could not be in any real hurry to get back to full production. And we saw them exit the quarter not being back at full production, which was interesting to us and not what we expected, not like they forecasted. But in fact, kind of what materialized. So I think on a long-term basis, I think there is some catch-up that can happen. But I think it's so influenced by the macro, it's so influenced by the model year changes and by interest rates, it's hard to just take a number out of Q4 and reapply it to any quarter this year. So I think there is positivity, but I would be hard-pressed to say that you know what, we're going to do a one-for-one move from Q4 into Q2 or Q3. We might, but we're not betting on that just yet.
That will conclude today's question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call over to Mike Dennison for any additional closing remarks.
Thanks, James. Again, I appreciate everybody's interest in Fox Factory. Have a good evening. We'll talk to you soon.
This does conclude the Fox Factory Holding Corporation's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Call. You may now disconnect your line, and have a great day.