FTC Solar Inc
NASDAQ:FTCI
Earnings Call Analysis
Q4-2023 Analysis
FTC Solar Inc
The company reported a revenue of $23.2 million for the fourth quarter, aligning with their midrange target but marking a significant decline from previous periods, including a 24.1% drop from the last quarter and an 11.5% decrease year-over-year. Gross profit consequently dipped to $0.7 million, or 3% of revenue, slipping from 11.1% in the prior quarter. The non-GAAP gross profit was reported at $1.1 million, or 4.8% of revenue. Despite the sequential decrease, the company emphasized an expected revenue recovery, suggesting potential margin expansion. Operating expenses were rigorously managed, leading to the lowest levels in over two years and, excluding extraordinary charges, were better than the provided guidance. The company also highlighted their improved liquidity status, ending the quarter with $25.2 million in cash, and underscored their prudence by maintaining no debt on the balance sheet.
Looking ahead, the initial forecast indicates a challenging first quarter, with anticipated revenue between $10 to $15 million, representing the low point for the year. This forecast includes an expected non-GAAP gross loss between $3.8 million and $1.8 million, and non-GAAP operating expenses ranging from $8 million to $8.9 million. The adjusted EBITDA loss is predicted to lie between $12.6 million and $9.8 million. However, there is a silver lining as management expects a sequential revenue growth throughout the year, suggesting a return to breakeven on an adjusted EBITDA basis by the third quarter, and profits by the fourth quarter.
The company's backlog is robust, valued at $1.7 billion with an addition of approximately $213 million since the start of the fiscal period. This is a critical metric, as it indicates potential future revenue; however, only $415 million of this backlog is currently under purchase orders, and the company is not providing specific guidance on when these revenues will be recognized.
Operationally, execution remains a stumbling block, with prior missteps admittingly affecting customer trust. Executive leadership acknowledges these issues and indicates that rebuilding customer relationships is a priority, although specific details of the improvement plan were not fully discussed in this transcript.
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Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the FTC Solar Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's call is being recorded. I would now turn the call to the host, Mr. Bill Michalek, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and welcome, everyone, to FTC Solar's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Before today's call, you may have reviewed our earnings release and supplemental financial information, which were posted earlier today. If you've not reviewed these documents, they are available on the Investor Relations section of our website at ftcsolar.com.I'm joined today by Ahmad Chatila, a member of the Board of Directors and a company founder; Cathy Behnen, the company's Chief Financial Officer; and Patrick Cook, the Company's Chief Commercial Officer.Before we begin, I remind everyone that today's discussion to date forward-looking statements based on our assumptions and beliefs in the current environment and speaks only as of the current date.As such, these forward-looking statements include risks and uncertainties and actual results and events could differ materially from our current expectations. Please refer to our press release and other SEC filings for more information on the specific risk factors. We assume no obligation to update such information discussed as required by law.As you expect, we'll discuss both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures today, please note that earnings release issued this afternoon includes a full reconciliation of each non-GAAP financial measure to the nearest applicable GAAP measure. In addition, we'll discuss our backlog, and our definition of this metric is included in our press release.With that, I'll turn the call over to Ahmad.
Thanks, Bill, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm joining the call today as the representative of the Board as the company progresses through this interim period prior to announcing our next CEO.As discussed on last call, I've been helping facilitate communication between management and the Board and monitoring key growth activities and initiatives during this interim period.On today's call, I'll touch on some of the recent progress the team has made and address the CEO search before turning it over to Cathy to review the financials. At a high level, I'd summarize the key takeaways from this call in the following way: one, fourth-quarter financial results were in line with our targets.Two, following an 18-month stretch with limited purchase orders, which has led to depressed revenue levels, the Company has seen an acceleration in closing purchase orders, which improves visibility and lays the foundation for a second half revenue recovery.And three, the Company is progressing well in improving efficiencies and lowering the breakeven revenue level. Based on the management team's current outlook, the company expects to grow revenue in 2024 and transition into profitability on a quarterly basis in the second half of the year. So, what are some of the issues the Company has faced and what progress has been made recently?First and most importantly, the Company has seen an acceleration of contracted projects or signed purchase orders. From January 2022 through June 2023, while we continue to grow our contracted and awarded projects largely through project awards, we had depressed levels of contracted projects and slower rate of conversion from awarded to contracted.That has led to current depressed revenue levels, which we now expect a trough here in the first half of 2024. More recently, the Company has been laser-focused on customers, spending as much time with them as possible in a cross-functional effort to improve engagement and best support the full range of customer needs.Aside from intense customer focus, the company has also been enhancing its product portfolio. The combination of these efforts has resulted in a significant increase in the rate of contracted projects about $50 million per month over the past 8 months, and it has been accelerating every quarter. This includes greater success in converting previously awarded projects into contracted projects with purchase orders.The sustained booking success we've seen now is the foundation for the revenue recovery that will start in earnest in the second half of this year. Frankly, that rate should be many times larger than $50 million per month, and that's how we are driving it. But we're heading in the right direction and rebuilding.Based on the success, contracted projects are now approximately $415 million of the total backlog.On the backlog, the Board has reviewed and is comfortable with the Company's $1.7 billion in backlog. However, it has been heavily skewed towards awarded versus contracted historically, resulting in less visibility as to when such awarded, but uncontracted projects will convert to purchase orders and revenue.As noted, we have made significant progress recently on having a high percentage of the backlog to be attributable to contracted projects. Backlog also continues to be heavily skewed towards U.S. and 2P projects. The U.S. current player represents 80% of backlog. In terms of technology, about 72% of backlog is 2P and the remaining 18% being either 1P or a combination of 1P and 2P.The majority of projects added over the last 2 quarters have been 1P helping to diversify backlog. Second, the market for 2P trackers have recovered and we have our strongest and most comprehensive product portfolio to date.In 2022, amid the module shortage, there was about 80% drop in the market for 2P trackers as more scarce modules were largely allocated to relatively easier project sites which tended to be 1P.With module availability improved, we're seeing a more normalized market for 2P with a very good pipeline activity. We're also seeing a ramp in interest in our 1P Pioneer tracker, which was certified in the third quarter of last year. Pioneer brings to 1P much of what customers have loved about our 2P technology.When the Company added a 1P tracker alongside our 2P solution and software, we touted our ability to be truly a solution-oriented partner for our customers and that, we could truly be technology agnostic and optimize each individual project site to maximize the benefit to our customers.We now have several examples of projects or portfolios of projects that we have won that have combined both 1P and 2P technologies with many more in the pipeline.Third, we are improving business processes. As Shaker noted on the November call that while the Company has become more efficient and lower product cost, there are opportunities to accelerate decision-making, close gaps within the product portfolio faster and the increased customer interaction.The Company under the leadership of Cathy, Sasan, and Patrick has been diligently focused on improving business processes across the board, emphasizing customer engagement, customer satisfaction, and purchase orders.Customer visits have increased tenfold and broadened across functions to accelerate the feedback loop on quality, product roadmap, and future needs and enhance overall customer experience. This is augmented by a newly formed Customer Advisory Board to which we've appointed renewable expert, Anthony Carroll as Chairman.We've also implemented a Net Promoter Score system to help us better measure and drive engagement and satisfaction. Fourth, we continue to further improve our cost roadmap to enable higher sustainable long-term gross margins.The company's cost roadmap has historically been hampered by high steel content due to the shift to large format modules, which was exacerbated during the steel price dislocation in 2021.The Company has made great strides in optimizing steel content and bring in manufacturing costs in line with those of its leading competitors. This has helped us significantly improve average new project margins, which have started to show through our financials.In addition, we expect continued cost improvements over the next 18 months as the company continues to work on its design-to-value and design-to-manufacturing initiatives supported by a rigorous process and excellent engineering team.We are confident that these improvements and strength of our average new project margins will enable greater than 20% gross margin in the future as our revenue level scales. And finally, our breakeven cost has been greatly improved. Our breakeven revenue level has historically been well over $100 million per quarter.We've now brought that down to what we believe to be approximately $50 million to $60 million going forward, depending whether or not we pay a bonus. This reduction has been driven by higher direct margins as well as a reduction and keen focus on OpEx and overhead costs.Our operating expenses in Q4, for example, were the lowest level in nearly 2 years as we have focused on operational efficiency while maintaining or increasing investment in key areas that support growth and pipeline conversion like a strengthened sales team.So, overall, while the near-term depressed revenue level is disappointing, I believe the company is making good progress in repositioning for a strong recovery. The company has an expanding portfolio of excellent tracker solutions that are well-regarded in the industry.Customer engagement is the top priority. We're already seeing an improvement in purchase orders that are the foundation for our revenue growth in the future.The market for 2P trackers is improving. We are improving our systems and process across the board, including pricing. We have a product cost structure to enable 20%-plus long-term gross margin and company cost structure, which has been reduced to enable quarterly profitability in 2024. We have lots of things going for us with a great team. It's really just a matter of getting revenue level up to see the profitability and cash flow potential to start to show through.And the last topic for me is just a quick update on the status CEO search. As Shaker outlined on the November call, we want to be very deliberate in our approach. We did not want to disrupt the progress on key initiatives of the company and wanted to take our time to find the right CEO.That said, we have started the process and have seen a great deal of interest. The Board is focusing the process on highly qualified candidates, both within the industry and adjacent industries to identify CEO, capable of leading the company for a long tenure. We have a short list of excellent candidates. The Board will plan to name a successor at the appropriate time when the process has concluded.With that, I'll turn it over to Cathy.
Thanks, Ahmad, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll provide some additional color on our fourth-quarter performance and our outlook.Beginning with the discussion of the fourth quarter, revenue came in at $23.2 million, which is at the midpoint of our target range. This revenue level represents a decrease of 24.1% relative to last quarter and 11.5% relative to the year-ago quarter.GAAP gross profit was $0.7 million or 3% of revenue compared to gross profit of $3.4 million or 11.1% of revenue in the prior quarter. On a non-GAAP basis, gross profit was $1.1 million or 4.8% of revenue, while down sequentially from a normalized 9.5% in Q3 on lower revenue and cost absorption, the fourth quarter margin represents our fourth consecutive quarter of positive gross margin and was towards the high end of our guidance range.We continue to believe that we have significant margin upside when our revenue level recover. Our GAAP operating expenses were $12.4 million. On a non-GAAP basis, excluding stock-based compensation and certain other costs, operating expenses were $10.8 million, which includes a $3.1 million credit loss provision relating to a specific customer account that was not included in our guidance ranges.Excluding net charge, our non-GAAP operating expenses would have been $7.8 million, below or better than our guidance range and representing the lowest level in more than 2 years as we have diligently look for efficiencies across the company while continuing to invest strategically in areas that support growth.That normalized $7.8 million when compared to a normalized $9.2 million in the prior quarter and $10 million in the year-ago quarter. GAAP net loss was $11.2 million or $0.09 per share compared to a loss of $16.9 million or $0.14 per share in the prior quarter and a net loss of $20.5 million or $0.20 per share in the year-ago quarter.Adjusted EBITDA loss, which excludes approximately $1.1 million, including stock-based compensation expense and other noncash items was $10.1 million compared to losses of $9.7 million in the prior quarter and $11 million in the year-ago quarter. Excluding the $3.1 million charge, adjusted EBITDA loss would have been $7 million better than the midpoint of our guidance.To touch briefly on annual results, full-year 2023 revenue was $127 million, representing a 3.2% increase versus 2022. The increase was primarily attributable to higher product volumes and ASPs, partially offset by a decline in logistics revenue at ASC. GAAP gross profit was $8.3 million or 6.5% of revenue compared to gross loss of $27.2 million or negative 22.1% of revenue in the prior year.On a non-GAAP basis, gross profit was $10.6 million or 8.4% of revenue compared to a gross loss of $23.3 million or 18.9% of revenue in the prior year. The company's product cost reduction efforts, including its design-to-value initiative to improve product grade margins is the primary driver of the significant year-over-year improvement.GAAP operating expenses were $59.1 million on a non-GAAP basis, OpEx was $43.9 million, which includes approximately $7.4 million in credit loss provision. Excluding this amount, our operating expenses would have been $36.5 million. This compares to $41.5 million on a similar basis in the prior year. GAAP net loss was $50.3 million compared to $99.6 million in 2022.Adjusted EBITDA loss, which excludes stock-based compensation expense and other noncash items, was $34.1 million compared to a loss of $66.4 million in 2022. Finally, regarding liquidity, we ended the quarter with $25.2 million free cash on the balance sheet. Our receivables are about 5x our payables and based on expected timing of payments and deposits, we expect cash to be about flat sequentially in Q1.We continue to hold no debt on the balance sheet and have about $65 million remaining under the ATM program at the end of the quarter. As previewed on the last call, we did not utilize the ATM in Q4, and we similarly don't plan to utilize it in Q1. With all these factors and the expected customer deposits, we will tightly manage those deposits and supplier payments.Our backlog is now growing to $1.7 billion with approximately $213 million added since November 8. With that, let us turn our focus to the outlook. Based on our current view, we expect first-quarter revenue to be down sequentially and represent the trough in the revenue for the year.Specifically, our targets for the first quarter call for the following: revenue between $10 million and $15 million, non-GAAP gross loss between $3.8 million and $1.8 million, or between negative 38% and 12% of revenue.As you might expect, the percentage ranges vary more greatly at these lower revenue levels. Non-GAAP operating expenses between $8 million and $8.9 million; and finally, adjusted EBITDA loss between $12.6 million and $9.8 million.Beyond Q1, we expect to see sequential revenue growth for the remainder of the year, with revenue being weighted towards the second half. We expect to be approximately breakeven on an adjusted EBITDA basis in the third quarter before being squarely profitable in the fourth quarter.With that, we conclude our prepared remarks, and I will turn it over to the operator for any questions. Operator?
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Philip Shen of ROTH.
A couple of years ago, your business customer wins and momentum were rising pretty quickly in an oligopolistic market. I believe that Jinko and LONGi module, UFLPA, the tensions really hurt you guys. That said, these module vendors have been cleared and are shipping actively into the U.S. and have been for some time.Why haven't you been able to ramp your revenues with them? Were there previously awarded orders, for example, that you ended up losing to others? So, can you give us some color on what's happening as these guys ramp up, although on your side, you're not able to ramp up as quickly.
No, Phil, thanks for the question. I mean, I think we haven't seen any material contract cancellations really first and foremost. And the second part is we're seeing the ramp back in 2P with these contracts and orders that are moving from our backlog into POs and revenue. That ramp just been quite frankly, a little bit slower than what anybody was expecting.
Shifting over to, I think you guys said of the $1.7 billion of backlog, maybe $450 million or ish roughly that number is contracted. Can you kind of correct that figure? And then also how much is expected to be delivered in '24? So, if you just look at the contracted volumes, how much is set up for '24?
Yes. So, let me clarify the kind of $1.7 billion. So $415 million of the $1.7 million has purchased orders. Some of those have defined schedules and some of those schedules we're working through with the customers. And Cathy, we're not giving quarterly kind of breakdown of guidance on where that $415 million ultimately going to play out.
Can you give it by year though, if not quarterly, like how much of that $415 million is in '24 versus '25 or beyond?
We're not giving the full-year guidance, but those are starting to move. And if you look at kind of how we have laid it out, we've given you what our Q1 guidance is, we showed you that we're moving to breakeven in Q3 and that will be profitable in Q4. So, I think if you kind of model that out, that gives you a baseline of what's coming through in 2024 and the rest will be coming in beyond that.
I see the sequential growth, we just don't know what is the rate of growth. So, it's a bit tough to get, I guess, with the breakeven and profitability in Q4, that helps.Execution has been tough, I know. Some of our recent checks suggest you may need to win back the trust of customers. Like how do you go about doing that? I know it's one step at a time and execution improvement. But have you guys thought through? Or can you communicate what that plan might be?
Yes. Thank you, Phil. This is Ahmad. You're correct. We had missteps in the past. That's why we are where we are. But the team has done an amazing job over the last 8 months. Actually, even the prior management teams, they really have worked very hard to correct a lot of issues in the past.And by having intense external focus, upgrading the quality systems, improving our cost road map, broadening our portfolio so that the sales teams when they go meet customers, they have more than just 2P to sell. And even in the 2P product, there was not enough variety in it what we're finding. And that portfolio got improved a lot over the last couple of years, and we continue to improve it now.And because of that, we're able to really book $50 million a month. That's a significant number, like $150 million a quarter. And that's how the team is correcting it, Phil.
Our next question comes from the line of Pavel Molchanov of Raymond James.
So, you've clearly been taking quite a bit of corporate costs out of the system, that Q1 run rate of between $8 million and $9 million in non-GAAP operating expenses, is that the kind of the steady state for the rest of the year? Or does it have further room to decline?
I'll start with this, and Cathy, you can add. The answer is, this is the run rate. We might increase it in second half of the year a little bit, Pavel. The team is trying to invest in sales and engineering. I think we cut a lot of the overhead, the things that we didn't need as much. But you can expect that that's the run rate and it might increase a little bit in the second half of the year because we want to add more salespeople. We want to add more engineering.
Yes. And I would just add on to that, that we have really worked on this diligently, and we do keep a very laser focus on our operating expenses and just continue to drive it. So, we control the things we can control. And so, we've really manage that. We have improved our processes and systems to really continue that control and how that monitoring through good metrics and strong from views on a year-over period basis.
You mentioned that bulk of the backlog and new additions are domestic. If we go back a few years, you were making a strong effort to diversify into Australia, parts of Africa and so forth. Given the amount of headcount that you've cut, are you able to play in these overseas geographies?
The answer is yes, Pavel. There's not absolutely, we can. Some of the overhead we cut is because we learned that we don't need it. And we might need to add a little bit more salespeople, more effective salespeople in various regions. Let me go back also to the prior question.We cut OpEx because it's not because we want to be a company that is smaller in revenue. We're trying to be efficient. We're not going to scale the company to be a $30 million a quarter company. We do not believe that. We're booking at $50 million a month. I recognize that we cannot be $50 million in revenue a month soon. But as long as we continue that trend and it's accelerating, actually, in Q3, Q4 is better than Q3 and so far in Q1 is better than Q4.One data revenue can expand. So, we actually want to set the company for nice growth and high profitability while being efficient. We have enough resources to be in the $50 million to $75 million booking a month. I think if we want to grow to $150 million, then we might add more people and expand internationally more aggressively. I hope that gives you some color.
Yes. And then maybe just following up on the international aspect. Last August, you announced a good-sized deal with a developer in Italy and Spain, and I think the plan was to start delivering late '23 and kind of continue through '24. Is that timetable still correct?
Yes. From those projects, that was the announcement we did with 5G, the 350-megawatt portfolio. We're looking still the majority of that revenue to be delivered kind of in 2024 and like we said, into 2025. We saw a couple of project delays in small nature in 2023, but largely the portfolio is still intact.
Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Osborne of TD Cowen.
A couple of questions on my side. I was wondering, Ahmad, if you could just address in looking back the awarded backlog conversion into the contracted under the prior management team, as you diagnose why that was a challenge. Is there a way of framing that?
Yes, Jeff, first of all, I want to thank the prior management team to really growing the business to that level. I think a lot of it had to do that we needed everyone to be on the road also to help customers move the awarded to contracted and adding more salespeople, getting stuff done internally, and that's what it is really. It's a lot of blocking and tackling. And I think we learned our lessons and now we're going to intensify that activity, Jeff.
And then you made some comments that I just wanted to tie in into the financials as well, but you made reference to using more steel than your peers and then a 12- to 18-month sort of design to value and redesign of the portfolio to use less steel.If I heard you right, to get to the 20% gross margin level, is the comment about the $50 million to $60 million in revenue in the third quarter, depending on the bonus payment schedule, does that assume that you hit a 20% gross margin? Or do you hit 20% after that 18-month time period?
We do not hit 20% gross margin in Q3 because we have absorption issues. So, the way I look at it is direct margin. And the answer is, we are in a good path, already at this moment, we are competitive on steel content. Maybe with a little bit better scale, we can negotiate better with steel manufacturers.I think maybe that's an area we can improve or some of our logistics and supply chain networks in certain international areas we can improve. I think to get to 20% gross margin, we need more than $50 million, $60 million. How much, Cathy, do you think we need to be at like $100 million a quarter?
Yes.
Yes, I would say we need to be at a $105 million a quarter, and we'll get to 20% gross margin. Yes, $105 million, okay?
Last question is just as it relates to the IRA. Is there any credits assumed in the guidance for Q1? Or how do we think about that for the outlook for the year?
No, we have not assumed the credit into our guidance. We are utilizing our facility at Alpha Steel, so we have capacity to manufacture domestic content and provide that to our customers as needed. But we have not put that into our forecasted.
Our next question comes from the line of Donovan Schafer of Northland Capital Markets.
So, Ahmad, first, I just want to clarify with your comment around, you have a monthly sort of run rate, I guess, right now of booking $15 million per month or adding that to the backlog. Do you mean $15 million that goes into that PO bucket, a purchase order that's contracted?Or does that include awards or projects that go into the awarded bucket? And if it's not one or the other, can you give any kind of if it's not 100% one or 100% of the other, can you give us some rough sense of what kind of a mix we're talking there?
Yes. It's 100% POs, purchase orders contracted. The awarded is higher than that.
And then for accounts receivable, yes, so, that's come down a bit, but not a lot, just on a quarter-over-quarter basis. And given the fairly low level of revenues in Q3 and Q4, I would have expected it to maybe come down a bit more.And I think in the past, you've maybe even talked about improving those collections as a way of providing some of the near-term funding. So, just wondering if we can get an update there. I think Cathy mentioned that some of that was written down. But are there other amounts in the accounts receivable that are past 90 days or could be coming under pressure for additional write-downs? Just any updates or clarification there would be helpful.
Yes, sure, Donovan, no, I'm not anticipating any other write-downs in the accounts receivable balance.
And then, let's see, talking about Q1 as the trough. On the Q3 call, I think I look back at the transcript and Patrick, you made the comment that you were expecting to improve revenue performance in the first quarter. And obviously, with the guidance that's come out, that hasn't played out as expected.So, what gives you confidence this time around, I guess, that Q1 will be the trough and that you'll see that additional growth in Q2, Q3 that gets you to the breakeven? What do you see now that's different?
Thank you, Donovan. This is Ahmad again. What we see is a more contracted than before. That's what we see. I mean, let me make a statement about infrastructure projects. By default, they are never on time. But we do not want to use that excuse. Our problem is, we are a smaller company.And because of that, we get a lot of whiplash because we're smaller than subscale. And as we increase our bookings all the time and get to hopefully $150 million a month, then our forecasting will become much, much better. So, that's our issue. But what happened since last time is we have a lot more contracted than before. So, we are more confident right now than the last time that we did the forecast.
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Amit Dayal of H.C. Wainwright.
Most of my questions have been asked, but I just wanted to touch on the backlog number. On the footnotes in the press release, you indicate some of the backlog is variable. Just wanted to understand what the extent of the backlog in that number is from the verbal side of things? And what are the triggers that convert this backlog into contracted orders?
Yes. We didn't break it out by what's verbal and what's not. I mean I think the disclosure we put in here was really more tied to the purchase orders and $415 million of the $1.7 billion has purchase orders associated with it.The way we look at kind of the rest of the backlog is through LOIs or LOIs verbal agreements in which we check with the customers on a monthly and quarterly basis to make sure these project are progressing.A lot of it is just candidly working with the customers to define the delivery schedules. They're getting modeled and some of these projects we talked about in previous quarters are 2025 MTP-type projects that are out into the future as well. So, there's a little bit of mix and breakdown as it relates to that.
And maybe just last one for me. As you sort of get into a recovery sale revenue start climbing, et cetera, to the $50 million plus levels. How do you feel, with respect to your working capital situation, to sort of meet that level of demand with what your balance sheet looks like right now?
Yes. And I think that we're managing our working capital, and I think we have sufficient working capital to meet the brands that we see in the back half of the year. We really look at managing the cash. We look at the fact that we have moved that and we look at the fact that we have significantly more receivables than we have payables and we continue to manage that.Our project, we look at from a cash flow cash-positive approach in terms of deposits that we receive from customers. So, it really helps us to manage through the working capital needs.
Thank you. I'm showing no further question at this time. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.