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RumbleOn Inc
NASDAQ:RMBL

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RumbleOn Inc
NASDAQ:RMBL
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Price: 5.42 USD 11.07% Market Closed
Updated: Apr 30, 2024

Earnings Call Analysis

Q4-2023 Analysis
RumbleOn Inc

RumbleOn's Revenue and Debt Reducing

RumbleOn reported a decline in adjusted EBITDA to $3.1 million for Q4, down from the previous year due to margin compression. Despite reducing their total unit sales by 1%, full-year 2023 revenue reached $1.37 billion, narrowly missing the lower end of their guidance. They anticipate a stronger performance in 2024, targeting annual revenue above $1.7 billion and annual adjusted EBITDA over $150 million by 2026. This growth is part of their Vision 2026 strategy, which focuses on three pillars: optimizing dealership performance, growing the RideNow car shopper tool, and strategic capital allocation. The company expects to lower interest costs through debt refinancing, having reduced their non-vehicle net debt to $218.5 million. Management remains cautious about sharing mid-quarter performance but is committed to controlling inventory levels and expects to reduce new unit inventory by roughly $60 million by year-end.

Inventory Optimization and Free Cash Flow Improvement

The company has planned a $60 million reduction in new inventory by year-end, which is expected to decrease floorplan interest expenses while boosting free cash flow. However, this aggressive inventory cut is likely to impact new margins in 2024. To counteract that, the company anticipates increased margins from pre-owned units along with cost savings, setting the stage for a better financial performance in the upcoming year.

Financial Performance and Revenue Decline

Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 was $3.1 million, a significant drop from the $16.6 million in the same period the previous year, influenced by compression in margin for both new and pre-owned units. The revenue for 2023 closed at $1.37 billion, which is lower than the prior year's $1.46 billion and slightly below the provided guidance range of $1.38 billion to $1.48 billion.

Strategic Plan for Growth: Vision 2026

The company launched Vision 2026, a three-year operating plan aimed at exceeding $1.7 billion annually in revenue, achieving an adjusted EBITDA greater than $150 million, and securing an annual adjusted free cash flow of $90 million or more by 2026. This growth trajectory aims to maintain a healthy balance sheet with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio between 1.5x and 2.5x.

Pillars for Achieving Long-Term Targets

To realize the Vision 2026 objectives, the company is focused on three strategic pillars: running the top-performing dealerships in the U.S. leveraging national scale, growing the RideNow car shopper tool to advance the pre-owned business, and effectively channeling operational capital towards maximizing long-term value per share. This includes pursuing strategic acquisitions that can bring additional value. Operation simplification, branding consolidation to RideNow Powersports, and incentivizing teams based on profitability and customer satisfaction form the core of these strategies. Additionally, strengthening OEM partnerships and exiting noncore relationships are part of the plan to concentrate on higher financial returns.

Earnings Call Transcript

Earnings Call Transcript
2023-Q4

from 0
Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the RumbleON Inc. Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Tom Zaleski, Vice President; Finance and Treasurer. Thank you. Please go ahead.

U
Unknown Executive

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. My name is Tom Zaleski, and I'm RumbleON's Vice President and Treasurer. Thank you for joining us on this conference call today to discuss RumbleON's Fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results. Joining me on the call today are Mike Kennedy, RumbleON's Chief Executive Officer; and Blake Lawson, RumbleON's Chief Financial Officer. Our Q4 and full year results are detailed in the press release we issued this morning and supplemental information will be available in our full year 2023 Form 10-K once filed. Before we start, I would like to remind you that the following discussion contains forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, RumbleON's market opportunities and future financial results and involve risks and uncertainties that may cause certain results in actuals to differ materially from those discussed here. Additional information that could cause actual results to differ from forward-looking statements can be found on RumbleON's periodic and other SEC filings. The forward-looking statements and risks in this conference call, including responses to your questions, are based on current expectations as of today, and RumbleON assumes no obligation to update or revise them whether as a result of new developments or otherwise, except as required by law. Also, the following discussion contains non-GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures, please see our earnings release issued earlier this morning. Now I'll turn the call over to Mike Kennedy, RumbleON's CEO. Mike?

M
Michael Kennedy
executive

Thanks, Tom. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for your interest in RumbleON, and for joining us on our call this morning. On the last conference call, since I had only recently joined, my comments were purposely limited. I'd like to take this opportunity to introduce myself to all of you and give some perspectives on our industry, our company and our recent performance. I'm going to then turn it over to Blake Lawson, our CFO, who will cover our Q4 and 2023 full year financials before turning it back to me so I can discuss our turnaround actions and introduce our vision 2026 long-term targets for the business. I've been in the Powersports industry in my entire career. I know RideNow from my years working with them during my time at Harley-Davidson. I have always admired what Bill Coulter and Mark Tkach built and the success they achieved in this industry. Even with all of Bill and Mark's success over 30 years, we believe they just scratched the surface of what is possible. Since joining the company, I've had the opportunity to visit several of our dealerships, meet with small groups with several employee teams and had discussions with all of our top OEMs. We also recently kicked off a very important process called composite meetings for our dealership GMs, so I had the chance to be in the room with all of our leaders here in Irvine. People hear me say the phrase, the bones of this company are really good. And when I say that, I'm primarily referring to our dealership operations. We have some incredibly dedicated people with an impressive set of industry experiences that we are blessed to have on this team. As you know, RumbleOn operates primarily through 2 distinct operating segments, the RideNow powersports dealership group consisting of 54 Powersport dealerships and primarily in the Sunbelt of the United States; and then Wholesale Express, an asset-light automotive transportation services provider. While the majority of our business comes from our Powersports dealership group, it's important to note that Wholesale Express provides top-of-the-line brokerage services to more than 3,000 clients across the United States. Headquartered in Gilbert, Arizona, the company has continued to grow in the automotive preowned vehicle transportation services market while establishing a vast network of more than 6,000 prequalified carriers. They transport preowned cars to dealers in all 50 states, and having recently spent time with the team, I can see how they've established a great reputation through their dedication to quality, simple and hassle-free transportation services. RideNow, Powersports is the largest retail group in the United States as measured by reported revenue, major unit sales and dealership locations. RideNow, Powersports operates in a highly fragmented industry, with over 8,500 dealership locations in the United States, most of which are single locations owned by a single entity. RideNow was founded more than 30 years ago and became a clear leader in this highly fragmented market. We operate in a growing industry, and we have a diversified business model, where more than 50% of our gross profits come from products other than the sale of major vehicles, such as parts and accessories and services. RideNow has a long track record of delivering through many business cycles and achieving attractive unit economics at the dealership level throughout its history. Before Blake walks through the financial results from Q4 and full year 2023, let me say just a few things. This company went through extraordinary disruptions last year. Number one, they transition off a 2022's COVID-enhanced record profitability like the entire industry. Number two, they went through a complete transformation of the executive management and the Board of Directors. And on a very positive note, both Bill Colter and Mark Tkach rejoined the Board last year. And number three, they implemented critical capital and balance sheet initiatives that Blake will walk through momentarily, and made substantial progress in consolidating operations and merging systems from the prior year acquisitions. I'm optimistic about our future. And I'm going to pause on that note and let Blake take us through the financials. Blake?

B
Blake Lawson
executive

Thank you, Mike, and good morning, everyone. In the fourth quarter and throughout 2023, we accomplished many critical capital and balance sheet initiatives. We favorably amended our credit agreement, successfully completed a $100 million rights offering, sold noncore assets, made significant progress to integrate our prior acquisitions, right-sized pre-owned inventory values and reduced term debt by $109 million. In early 2024, we further reduced term debt by another $33 million, bringing the total reduction to $142 million with the sale of RumbleOn finance portfolio closing in early January. In addition to the balance sheet improvements, we successfully streamlined the organization by reducing headcount, restructuring our operations management and reducing corporate overhead on a go-forward basis. Although we believe the retail environment will remain challenging in 2024. We anticipate that the significant changes implemented in 2023, particularly with regard to expense reduction will drive positive operational free cash flow in 2024. Turning to a review of the fourth quarter. Total revenue was $311.1 million, which is down 6.2% or $20.4 million from the prior year due to a decrease in pre-owned units sold, partially offset by an increase in new units. We sold 15,596 retail units, including 11,293 new units and 4,303 preowned units, down 5.8% from the prior year due entirely to a reduction of preowned units. Total fourth quarter gross profit was $71.2 million, down $21.2 million from the prior year, of which $12.6 million was related to a onetime noncash year-end preowned inventory adjustment. Similar to what has been experienced recently in the automotive industry, Powersports wholesale book values dropped 10% to 20% depending upon unit type from April to December 2023. Instead of liquidating our inventory in the wholesale channel at significant losses only to turn around and buy it back again for the spring selling season, we made the decision to take a onetime adjustment and hold on to this inventory for the 2024 selling season. Gross margin was 22.9% compared to 27.9% in the prior year. If you back out the pre-owned inventory adjustment, gross margin was 26.9% for the quarter. The year-over-year reduction in gross profit dollars was driven by margin compression in both new and pre-owned units and the year-end inventory adjustment. Additionally, it's worth remembering that the start of Q4 2022, October, to be specific, still had the final effects of enhanced COVID margin benefit before new inventory came rushing back and gross margins normalized. Total powersports gross profit per unit adjusted for the preowned write-down was $51.70, down $250 from the prior year. Total fourth quarter SG&A expenses were $75.7 million, down $14.4 million or 15.9% year-over-year related primarily to compensation, down $7.7 million, and professional fees and G&A, down $6.4 million in the aggregate. Turning to inventory. In the fourth quarter, we worked on correcting our pre-owned inventory heading into the 2024 spring selling season. We ended the year heavy in new inventory and light in preowned inventory. This was partly caused by the scarcity of new inventory during the pandemic as we took on additional brands and ordered everything we could get our hands on from our core franchise partners during that time. This scarcity mindset continued within our dealership network as new inventory normalized and certain OEMs began over-shipping new products. In short, we are over-assorted with brands and new inventory based on the current demand. We are addressing the issue by eliminating some niche brands that no longer make sense financially, while focusing on aged products and centralizing inventory management to better pull from our existing network stock rather than order more. We expect to reduce our new inventory by $60 million by year-end, resulting in lower floorplan interest expense and increased free cash flow. We anticipate this aggressive reduction will put pressure on new margins in 2024, which should be offset by increased pre-owned margins and cost savings. Adjusted EBITDA was $3.1 million in the fourth quarter, down $16.6 million from the prior year period, driven by new and pre-owned unit margin compression. For the full year 2023, we achieved $1.37 billion in revenue compared to $1.46 billion in the prior year and compared to guidance of $1.38 billion to $1.48 billion. We sold a total of 72,662 Powersports units in 2023. This was a decrease of 751 units or 1% from the prior year. Total units were comprised of 45,706 new units, 21,840 pre-owned retail units and 5,116 preowned wholesale units. Total powersports gross profit per unit GPU was $5,125 for the year compared to $6,157 in the prior year and compared to full year guidance of $5,300 to $5,400. Part of the decrease was attributed to the pre-owned inventory adjustment of $12.6 million in Q4. Adding back the impact of this would bring 2023 GPU to $53.12. Total gross profit was $360 million compared to $442 million. Total SG&A for the year was $347.3 million, a decrease of $72 million from the prior year. Total adjusted EBITDA was $50.6 million, adjusting for the $12.6 million inventory impairment, which compares to $120 million in the prior year and guidance of $55 million to $65 million. Turning to the balance sheet and cash flow. At the end of the fourth quarter, we had $58.9 million of unrestricted cash. Further, we had roughly $20 million of unfloored equity in our preowned inventory, which is available to help fund the business. Our nonvehicle net debt at the end of the fourth quarter was $242.9 million. Net debt includes the principal balance of our term debt, convertible notes and finance portfolio line of credit not inclusive of reductions for debt discount and issuance cost, less unrestricted cash in the bank. As I mentioned previously, in early 2024, we paid down additional debt and completed the sale of the RumbleOn Finance company, putting the company's non-vehicle net debt at $218.5 million at the end of February. Now I'll turn it over to Mike to discuss our turnaround actions introduce our Vision 2026 long-term targets for the business. Mike?

M
Michael Kennedy
executive

Thank you, Blake. Ridenow exists to deliver the exhilaration, fun and adventure that Powersports customers want. This is what inspires our teams and drives our performance. The Powersports customer is at the heart of all of our retail operations, informing thousands of decisions by our teams and our dealerships every day. I couldn't be more excited to be leading the company today and have more conviction about our opportunity, and when I walked in just a few months ago. Today, we're introducing our 3-year operating plan called Vision 2026. The Vision 2026 plan was developed by the team and myself over the last few months and guided by our first principle of creating and maximizing long-term per share value. In this plan, we expect the following to be achieved by calendar year 2026. Annual revenue in excess of $1.7 billion, annual adjusted EBITDA of greater than $150 million annual adjusted free cash flow of $90 million or more. We expect to achieve Vision 2026 and maintain a healthy balance sheet within our target lever ratio of 1.5x to 2.5x net to debt -- net debt-to-EBITDA. To achieve Vision 2026 goals, we have the team focused on 3 strategic pillars. These are leverage our national scale to run the best-performing dealerships in America, supported by an aligned and efficient corporate office, grow our differentiated RideNow car shopper tool to drive our preowned business; and lastly, effectively allocate the capital we create through operations to maximize our long-term per share value, including strategic accretive acquisitions. Let's start with number one, leveraging our national scale to run the best performing dealerships in America, supported by an aligned and efficient corporate office. When I say the best performing dealerships, we measure that by using net profit and customer satisfaction as our top 2 goalposts. We put the following strategies in place to accomplish this. Number one, simplifying our operations. We recently reorganized our teams at headquarters and the regional support teams that sit on top of our dealerships. Our goal in this reorganization was to decentralize the organization and empower our general managers to run great stores. While some activities make sense to centralize when you have 54 dealerships and expect more in the future, my view is that we were doing things centrally that should have been done locally and some things locally, such as new major vehicle ordering and marketing initiatives that should have been done centrally. The outcome of this initiative was to reduce the number of layers in the organization that existed between me and the dealership floor. We reduced the number of layers from 9 to 6 and have already seen an increase in our agility within the organization. Of course, when we remove layers and complexity, we end up reducing the total head count, which has the added benefit of lowering expenses and enables us to operate more effectively. Today, we have less than 100 people here at HQ, and we have significantly reduced the amount of regional support personnel. Importantly, our operating structure allows for significant expansion without adding corporate expense, creating operating leverage through our model as we grow. Corresponding to our work on simplification and reorganization is the need to focus. The teams here had too many priorities, too many projects and too many distractions to the core business. There was no clear company-wide strategy that existed after the acquisitions that took place in 2021 and 2022, and this caused confusion as to who we were as a company. Contributing to the distraction and lack of focus was an incoherent brand strategy. We were operating and supporting 2 different retail brands, RideNow Powersports and RumbleOn. We have decided that we will focus on our RideNow Powersports brand going forward. This move will create a crisp and compelling message to riders around the country. It will further align our organization and increase efficiencies within our company as we leverage our online and brick-and-mortar channels. As an example of this, our cash offer has been rebranded to the RideNow cash offer for a fully integrated brand message that carries across all of our online and in-store locations. Next up, creating the right incentives for our team. The team is at the heart of our operations and great rider experiences. We have empowered our 54 GMs to think and act like owners. We've incorporated an incentive-based compensation structure for the majority of our dealership personnel, starting with our GMs. It's focused on profitability, customer satisfaction and critical operational metrics. We've also committed ourselves to what I refer to as a composite culture, which invests in our GMs while holding them accountable to peer and industry benchmarks of performance. This activity started in February, and it will be a major element of our work to help our GMs optimize performance as we implement Vision 2026. Next up is strengthening our OEM relationships. OEMs are critically important partners of our company, and we work hard to invest our resources to align with their brand standards, striving to be the best performing partner they have. We absolutely expect our dealerships to be top of the charts in sales effectiveness or market share and certainly customer satisfaction scores. Since joining the company, I've had the opportunity to have productive meetings with all -- many of our OEM partners. To help with our own focus and guided by our first principle of maximizing long-term per share value, we recently exited a number of noncore OEM relationships. These actions will help our teams achieve greater focus, free up capital currently tied up in inventory, and therefore, improved financial returns at the dealership level. All of this turnaround work helps to focus our teams and set them up for success. By the end of 2023, we've driven out approximately $60 million of annualized cost, which is a key element of why we expect a much improved 2024 versus 2023, and puts us on a path to achieve Vision 2026. Moving now to number two, growing our RideNow cash offer tool as a point of differentiation to drive the pre-owned business. The preowned segment opens up high-return areas of growth for us as we are committed to intensifying our efforts on expanding this business. Historically, our cash offer was managed in a silo, which led to lost opportunities within our operations. We've restructured the operation with an experienced leader and expect to have an integrated approach with all store operators. Our vehicle acquisitions begin with our standard operating procedures ensuring we are buying the right product at the right price, and we have alignment from the cash offer team all the way to the dealership floor. With the largest brick-and-mortar retail footprint in the country, we should be leveraging the store base into our cash offer operation drive efficiencies in both the buying and retailing of preowned product. I'm excited to say we plan to pilot our first stand-alone brick-and-mortar preowned dealership in 2024. As the largest buyer of preowned inventory in the country, we have a compelling brand in RideNow, and store operations teams with more than 30 years of retail know-how. We believe we are uniquely positioned to stand up a stand-alone preowned only viewership. As I mentioned, we expect to pilot 1 store in 2024, and all decisions in this and every venture will be guided by our first principle accreting long-term per share value for our shareholders. Moving to the third element of our Vision 2026 plan, capital allocation. So far, I've discussed elements of our Vision 2026 plan focused on capital creation. For example, running our stores effectively to produce cash supported by an aligned and efficient corporate office, and operating our asset-light automotive transportation business. Now I will discuss my equally important job, which is to allocate that capital. Our decisions will always be guided by our first principle, which is to create the most long-term per share value. As with all companies, we have a series of menu options when it comes to capital allocation. We can pay down debt, acquire or divest retail locations, invest in greenfield locations, invest in CapEx in the existing business, or repurchase our own shares. We continually evaluate our dealership footprint and opportunities to strengthen it, whether by adding locations or exiting nonperforming ones. Our capital allocation plan permits us the flexibility to take advantage of opportunities in the market, and we will be focused on accretive acquisitions. With 55% of our shares represented on our Board, and with the vast majority of my own compensation directly tied to driving per share value, rest assured, we will think and act like true owners at every step of the way. Lastly, I want to address guidance. We have decided to stop the practice of giving annual guidance. Instead, we'll point investors to our Vision 2026 plan, and how we expect to be able to shape the business to drive per share value over the coming years. As a result, we are withdrawing all prior guidance for 2024. To help with this transition, I'm going to offer up some color and commentary on the different elements, which we historically guided on. In the recent past, this company has given annual guidance on revenue, adjusted EBITDA and total GPU, or gross profit per unit retail. With respect to adjusted EBITDA, we believe that the prior guidance of $80 million to $90 million for 2024 is within our sights. However, our plan to achieve this number is based on different components, namely lower revenue and expenses than previously contemplated. Accretive acquisitions have always and will remain a key element of our value creation strategy, and they are an important part of Vision 2026. We don't plan on achieving $1.5 billion in revenue, which was the previous 2024 guidance. And with respect to GPU, we don't believe there will be a material change to the GPU run rate we achieved last year. Our energy and focus will be on Vision 2026 plan, and how we expect to be able to shape the business to drive per share value over the coming years. It might take longer to get there based on macro or industry headwinds or key OEM product life cycle timing. Alternatively, we may get there earlier. But make no mistake, we will never take our eye off our first principle at every stage of the journey, creating long-term per share value for our shareholders. The team has done a lot of work over the last few months to develop our Vision 2026 plan, designing and measuring the activities to make it a reality. And while there's always more work to do, I'd like to give the entire team here a huge shout out and thank them for all of their work over the last few months. We're now operating as a focused and energized company with our actions centered around the 3 strategic pillars that drive the company towards achieving Vision 2026. Now I'll turn it over to the moderator for your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Today's first question is coming from Eric Wold of B. Riley Securities.

E
Eric Wold
analyst

A couple of questions, just follow-up questions on kind of the parts of the strategic plan. I guess one, on the last point, you talked about the acquisitions being an important part of the 2026 plan. Maybe give us a sense of how aggressive you want to be on adding dealerships over the coming years? What's -- maybe what's included or how much of a driver acquisitions are within those targets? And kind of what valuations in the pipeline look like at this point?

M
Michael Kennedy
executive

Okay. Eric, thanks. Yes, you asked a few questions in there, so let me try and make sure I get to them all. Your first question was around -- just back up for a second and repeat that first part.

E
Eric Wold
analyst

Sure. I guess how aggressive you want to be on adding acquisitions over the next couple of years to kind of what's included within those 2026 targets driven by acquisitions?

M
Michael Kennedy
executive

Yes. So we don't want to be -- we don't want to acquire stores just to acquire stores. We want to be smart and strategic about acquisitions. We certainly are going to hold ourselves accountable to make sure they're accretive to the business. And we don't want to like share all the things we look at in the target. Because we don't want to share that from a competitive perspective. But I think if there's a silver lining and coming off of COVID, I think prices are probably coming down from where they were certainly a year ago or 2 years ago. I think a lot of owner operators realize that we made a lot of money during COVID. and it was relatively easy. And today, it's a lot of work and the return isn't as great. So maybe there's a silver lining in there in terms of targets that we see. But make no mistake, we're not going to buy stores just to buy stores. We're going to be smart about it. We're going to make sure they're accretive to our business model and strategic in terms of our operation. And so I think that maybe answers your questions. I don't know if Blake has anything to add, but that's kind of my views.

B
Blake Lawson
executive

Eric. Yes, it is definitely part of our strategy, an important part of our strategy going forward. For sure. But like Mike said, we don't want to give away our playbook. And it could be a big acquisition. It could be a bunch of small ones. I mean you just don't really know.

E
Eric Wold
analyst

Got it. And then just a follow-up question...

M
Michael Kennedy
executive

Go ahead, Eric.

B
Blake Lawson
executive

Sorry, go ahead.

E
Eric Wold
analyst

So on the debt balance, you talked about obviously the 2026 plan, your goal is to get there within the range of 1.5x to 2.5x net debt to EBITDA. Maybe talk about the structure of your current debt all the changes you made last year with the current debt in place, what are the plans around that debt to make a more flexible structure? And maybe when do you plan on addressing that in this year or next?

B
Blake Lawson
executive

Yes, that's a great question. So -- so we took out a lot of debt in 2023, and then we've taken out even more in early 2024, which is a nice cash flow savings from a debt -- from an interest cash perspective. We definitely have, as a key target this year to do some type of a refinance on that. We're in the very early stages of that. But the -- from all indications, credit markets are opening up. We definitely want to put down some good numbers in 2024, so that we can have more options available to us. But make no mistake, we are focused on doing some type of a refinance this year, preferably. -- to both get more flexibility, but really to lower interest as well.

E
Eric Wold
analyst

Last follow-up maybe just on that point, and I'll move on. What is the debt pay down in Q1? What is the current interest expense run rate for nonfloorplan debt?

B
Blake Lawson
executive

For nonfloorplan debt, so we are at -- let's see here. We're at $218 million, yes, $218 million of net debt right now. So backing out the cash at roughly, what are we at, Tom, $225 million for Oaktree, close to 14%. So there's a good $38 million, $40 million of interest there this year.

Operator

The next question is coming from Craig Kennison of Baird.

C
Craig Kennison
analyst

Thanks for the color on your 2026 vision, very helpful. I wanted to ask just about the current quarter, you're almost done. I'm curious what retail trends you've observed so far in the start of 2024?

M
Michael Kennedy
executive

Yes. Thanks for the question, Craig. I appreciate that. We're not going to share any information mid-quarter. It's just a practice of not doing that. But -- and as you know, Craig, you know this business pretty well. March ramps up significantly versus January and February. And honestly, the last part of March is a different fall game compared to the first part of March. So we just don't think it's productive to talk about it mid-quarter here.

C
Craig Kennison
analyst

Okay. Fair enough. And then just with respect to inventory, I think you talked about a situation where you -- the whole industry had excess inventory. Where are we on the path to getting to what you might consider optimal levels of inventory of new units?

M
Michael Kennedy
executive

Well, I mean, that's a great question. I think for our company overall, overall, our inventory is too high. And we look at it kind of from a days supply perspective. Now it's different brand by brand. So -- and that's what the team is working on. But as Blake mentioned in his remarks, because of some OEM line changes and because of just centralizing the ordering and more disciplined about managing our new inventory, we expect to take out about $60 million of new inventory throughout the year. So that won't come together until towards the end of the year. And so that will put us in a really, really good shape for the following year, Craig. And so hopefully, that answers your question.

C
Craig Kennison
analyst

Yes. And maybe just on that last point, $60 million of inventory coming out, is there a way to say how much of that is coming from brands that you are choosing to exit versus brands you think you'll continue to roll with?

M
Michael Kennedy
executive

Yes, that's a good question. We don't have that information right in front of us. I would say it's probably 2/3 with existing lines and 1/3 with lines that we're exiting.

B
Blake Lawson
executive

Yes.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question is coming from Fred Wightman of Wolfe Research.

F
Frederick Wightman
analyst

Just to follow up on inventory. Is there a way to frame the mix of inventory as far as current and noncurrent products within sort of what you've reported and then also maybe that inventory work down target?

M
Michael Kennedy
executive

Yes. Thanks, Fred. This is Mike. Yes, when you look at our aged inventory, I mean, we have very little -- we look at model year '22 and later, it's very small, less than 3% of our total inventory. So the team is focused on obviously cleaning that up. A lot of OEMs just recently introduced '24. So a lot of focus and program support from OEMs on model year '23 is that we're working on, and that's certainly going to be a key piece of the focus here in the selling season. And the good news about all this inventory management is, now is the time to address it because we're going into the height of our season. Next 4 or 5 months, demand is pretty strong. And so when the team focuses and gets it done execution wise, we should have some really, really good results.

F
Frederick Wightman
analyst

Makes sense. And then just thinking about -- I know you pulled the annual guidance, but even for sort of the midterm outlook, what do you think the impact of potential rate cuts will be? What have you sort of assumed within those '24 guideposts that you laid out? And how quickly do you think that rate cuts could potentially drive consumer interest or consumer demand?

M
Michael Kennedy
executive

Yes. In our modeling and in what we are looking at, we haven't anticipated any -- there's no rate cuts in there. So that would all be very helpful. If we would welcome it both from a debt perspective, it does make a a big difference to us as well as from a floor plan interest perspective as well as to our consumer. I just think that, psychologically, it would be a lift to the customer and the riders to see that. But we haven't baked that into anything in 2024.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Kennedy for closing comments.

M
Michael Kennedy
executive

Thanks for your questions and interest in RumbleOn. This is an exciting moment in our company's history, as we sharpen our focus on Vision 2026 by leveraging our scale to run the best performing dealerships in America, growing our preowned business and allocating our capital to maximize our long-term per share value. We constructed a powerful turnaround plan for the company, and we'll be focused on the execution. Thank you very much.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines. You'll walk off the webcast at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.

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