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Intrinsic Value is all-important and is the only logical way to evaluate the relative attractiveness of investments and businesses.
Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Five Star Business Finance Limited Earnings Conference Call hosted by ICICI Securities. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded.
I now hand the conference over to Mr. Denis Bua from ICICI Securities. Thank you and over to you, sir.
Hi. Thanks, Steve. Hi, good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Five Star Business Finance Q4 FY '21 Earnings Conference Call -- on behalf of ICICI Securities, I would like to thank our star management team for giving us the opportunity to host this call. Today, we have with us the entire top mine team of Five-Star represented by Mr. At Chairman and Managing Director; Mr. Rangarajan Kristian, CEO; and Mr. Srikant, the CFO. I will now hand over the call to Mr. Pate for his opening remarks, and then we'll open the floor for Q&A. Over to you, sir.
Yes. Thank you, Ramesh. Welcome all for his Five-Star's earnings call for the full year and for the quarter ending financial '24, we are happy and very satisfactory, the way in which we came in -- we brought in the growth, combined with the quality and the profitability. Let me go -- as usual, let me start with the branch opening and employee addition. We have opened close to 147 branches for the full year and 40 branches in the Q4. As we have been saying in last few quarters about the cluster branch approach, where a branch becomes bigger in size, take above 2,500 accounts, close to INR 50 crores of [indiscernible], we bring in a cluster approach where we split the branch into 2 or 3 depending upon the area -- and this has been done purely derisking the branches, having more number of accounts and more on a bigger team.
So equally, the account gets split and the team also gets split to the newer location. Out of INR 147, 1/3 will be on the cluster approach basis and 2/3 will be on the new branches basis. which we have guided close to 80 to 100 branches will be opening year-on-year from a new branch basis. We have had close to 975 employees in business and collection comparing to 825 employees in business and collection last year. Last year, we opened 73 branches. So employee addition is not much. It is related to that 80 to 100 branches, which we have opened new and interestingly, our OpEx has kept intact.
In fact, it has reduced both for the full year and for the quarter. So this shows keeping the productivity at the top and derisking the bigger branches is the right model and right structure for Five-Star going forward. We'll be repeating this for this year also.
Now taking you to the disbursement, branch opening and addition of business employees has contributed to the increase in disbursement. We have done INR 1,336 crores of disbursement in last quarter. This is a 20% growth year-on-year and 11% growth Q-on-Q. And for the full year, we have done a disbursement of close to INR 4,881 crores, which is 44% growth in disbursement. That has resulted in robust AUM, which has moved to INR 9,640 crores, registering a 39% year-on-year and 8% Q-on-Q. And for the full year, we have grown close to 39% for the financial year '24.
Now let me take you towards the quality, which is a very important metric. The collection efficiency was good and stable. We stayed at 99% between last quarter and this quarter. And unique customer collection was also at good levels. We were at 97.5%, same as last quarter, a bit of improvement, but broadly at 97.5%. Due to our good collection efforts and strategy what we have adopted our 30-plus has shown a good drop. From 10.5% in the March of last year it has dropped down to 7.9% for the March of this year. This is a good drop comparing to 30-plus accounts. We will be in the same range of close to 7.5% to 8% for this financial year. And additional branches increase in AUM and in good quality that has brought in a good profitability for your company. Our profitability for the quarter as rose to INR 236 crores, which is a 40% year-on-year and 9% Q-on-Q. And for the full year, it has moved to INR 835 crores from INR 603 crores, giving a 30% jump impact.
From the liability side, Srikant will deal it in depth. The cost was -- the incremental cost was at 9.58% comparing to 9.7% last quarter. And the cost on the book stands at 9.71%. With this kind of branch addition, disbursement and growth will continue for this financial year, too. As we have moved from the COVID, we have been giving a 30% above growth year-on-year. That will be continued for this year too.
So with this, let me hand over to Srikanth to go in-depth.
so a very good afternoon to all of you. As Mr. Pate had outlined in his remarks, Q4 was another 8 to a strong quarter for us. across the various operational and financial parameters, we had said very well. As of March 24, we had a borrower base of about INR 3.9 lakhs the loans. So this has grown by about 31% on a year-on-year basis. So the portfolio continues to be well diversified and not concentrated in pockets. From a branch count of 3, we ended -- this is a combination of new branches and branches opened under the Paxatatepy. Disbursements, again, we have already touched upon. It grew 20% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter. AUM growth for the year was from around INR 6,096 crores because we have touched INR 9,641 crores.
On the financial metrics, our yields continue to remain consistent at around 24% to 24.5%. Our cost of funds for the quarter dropped to about 9.4%. So this has resulted in a spread of 14.55% as against a spread of about 14.1% for Q4 FY '23. With increasing leverage, there is a drop in NIM. It has dropped from 18.47% in Q4 of last year to 17.19%, like I said, primarily on account of increased leverage. For the full year, we had a net interest margin of 17.4% as against 18% for the last financial year. Our cost-to-income continues to remain very stable. For the quarter, it was at about 35.06% as compared to a little over 38% for Q4 FY '23.
We expect our cost to income to remain stable at around 35% to 37% level even in the steady state. All this has resulted in an ROA of 8.43% for the quarter. And for the quarter, the ROE for the first time as we were at about 18.5%. But if you look at the full year, we had registered an ROE of 8.42%, which is a drop of 20 basis points comparing to last year and an ROE of 17.6%. which is almost 2.6% higher as compared to last financial year.
From a borrowing perspective, we continue to be attractive in -- from our lender side. We have about 45 lenders who have lent to us. While the bank loans continue to be the major portion of our debt, I think one of the very important cases that we have guided you last quarter and what we have done during this quarter is the effort to diversify our liability franchise. We have made quite good progress on that front. In March, we received a sanction of INR 45 crores from Nava, one of the largest developmental institutions in the country. And the other news, which is also public information is IFC has subscribed to our NCDs for INR 500 crores. All these are at very attractive pricing. So in Q4, we had received sanctions for about INR 900 crores. We availed about INR 950 crores, some of it coming from the past sanctions. The average continues to be -- the weighted average rate continues to be very, very attractive at 9.58%. For the full year, we had drawn slightly less than INR 4,000 crores, though our sanctions were at about INR 4,350 crores. At a non-eco cost of about 9.54%. We continue to maintain a good liquidity buffer at about close to INR 1,880 crores and an additional INR 425 crores of sanction lines, which were in [indiscernible].
We have already touched upon the collection efficiency, but I think very impressive numbers across 1 plus 30 plus and the stage 3 assets. We are maintaining a very good provision coverage ratio, both on the overall AUM and on the Stage 3 assets. Our provision coverage on Stage 3 continues to be at about 54.27%. And on an overall basis, we are at about 1.64%. The restructured book is almost at an immaterial level as we speak. It is at 0.5% of our overall. But even there, we maintained a provision coverage of about 55%. So all of this has given us a very good profitability of INR 236 crores for the quarter and INR 836 crores for the year, which is roughly 39% to 40% growth both for the quarter as well as for the full year. Our network is slightly shy of INR 5,200 crores as of March.
So the last couple of years, after the cover has been a very good year for us, very strong in terms of quality, profitability and growth. and we expect that this momentum will be carried forward in the current financial year as well. On that note, we will open up for any questions that any of may have. Thank you.[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Viral Shah from IIFL Securities.
Congratulations on a good set of numbers. My first 2 questions are for you, Mr. Pai, and the third 1 would be for Sika. So sir, basically, if you look at the business model that you have successfully scaled up, it is a process-intensive model, right? And this is demonstrated by even your better asset quality outcomes ultimately on your write-offs, et cetera. But I wanted to check how are you able to scale up this business model successfully in the new geographies where you are growing in a noncontinuous manner, because it requires your employees on the ground you're recruiting right from the ground level up. So if you can throw more light over there.
Yes. Yes, this is a very niche business model. As I've been saying, these customers for the business needs and for any other housing or personal needs, they have to depend on the local money lending market. That is where Five-Star goes and caters and move them from informal to formal. This demand is always robust, what I've seen in last 20 years, and it continues to be robust. From a health perspective, we are south players. If you see in the 4 bigger states in South, we have a good presence, but we don't have a deep presence in the South.
So for a foreseeable future, if I'm going to focus more on South, that will deliver the growth that we have been guiding to the market very comfortably. Having said that, we have also said that we want to have a reasonable presence in the rest of the country. That's where the new states have been put in place. We have a strong presence in MP and we have a very lighter presence in other 4, 5 states that we have in the rest of the country. So for a sustainable loan growth, I think today, South contributes close to 93% of our entire disbursement in AUM.
Even in 3 years down the line, South will continue to contribute close to 85% of the growth and disbursement. So I think our business model on the growth, what we have created is purely based on the South and whatever it comes in the rest of the country is going to be addition to our growth.
So sorry for a follow-up. So right now, if I look at it, we have a INR 10,000 crores of AUM and the employee base was around INR 9,000. So basically when we scale up, right, I understand from a geographical perspective, it will be still south heavy. But I think directionally, we are also going to expand our presence in the newer states, the Gujarat, the Maharashtra, Rajasthan of the world. And in those geographies, because for example, we have to build a loan book of, say, INR 5,000 crores, right, over the next few years. It will also require 5,000 employees. That is like 50% of the current employee base.
So how are we able to manage because that's 1 thing that I think comes up in terms of the ability to scale the business.
Yes. Since it's a small ticket, close to 3 to 500,000 ticket size per file and operationally intense business, it needs more manpower than a bigger ticket size product. A few things here is we put up our -- when we put up our branches in the existing locality, we recruit the officers from the locality. So we don't have any constraint that officers who is coming from other NBFCs has to be in the similar space. As long as they are from NBFC space, we are happy to take him. And the business head who's the insat branch is really matters for moving our business and collections.
Having said that, that's our business model. We have to scale up with the people. We will -- as we have been doing in the past, we'll be doing it very successfully in the future also. That's not a constraint from Five-Start perspective.
Got it, sir. So the second question was from the perspective of the cash collections component. So I see that, that number has actually now reduced dramatically from 62% to 47% now. Can you explain like what is, of course, driving this on the ground? And is there any intention of further bringing this down?
Yes. As we have been saying in the past, there's no push from the company side that a customer has to pay in cash. But having said that, in last few quarters, maybe in 2 years, gradually, when the UPI transaction is gaining momentum across Tier 3 to Tier 6 towns, our customers have also started to repay their EMIs through NASH and UPA mode.
That is why if you see our noncash portion has crossed 50 and it's close to 55% in the month of March -- March month alone. And if this trend continues, maybe we'll be close to 70% or 65% to 70% by this financial year-end.
Okay. And does this -- will this mean any savings in terms of OpEx, cash handling charges, et cetera, or no?
Not much in place. really, if all it has to only be better real -- and at this point of time, we are not guiding you for any betterment that will come in terms of OpEx. We will take it as it comes along. The intention is to get the customers move from cash to noncash, which is obviously perceived to be a lot more risk-free. So for now, we are not guiding on any OpEx increases or sales to come in because of this.
Right. And the last question, Srikanth, for you is, right now, we have 14 basis points of spread between the incremental cost of funds and the back book. And now that we have 2 quarters of track record in terms of tapping the capital markets -- can we say that there is scope for the spreads to expand from here on by anywhere between 5, 10 basis points, not material.
Dhiraj, you are looking at the full year number. But if I look at Q4 number alone, the difference between incremental costs and the book cost is just 6 basis points. And while we have a bit the capital markets, we've not really on deep there, especially in terms of getting the mutual funds and all that, where we believe that there could be some premium that we'll have to end up paying. So I would probably say -- the ability to get the spread expansion is not there at this point of time, we will not guide you for any of the spread expansion.
In fact, what we have been saying is there can be a slight increase in the cost of funds as well. It depends on what kind of rates we are able to get from banks what kind of rates and what kind of proportion we are raising from mutual funds where the cost could be slightly higher, could be offset a little bit of it with some priority sector lending from banks.
So at this point of time, don't factor in any spread increase to come in -- we will see over the next couple of quarters in terms of where the spread sort of normalizes once we get more into the mutual funds side of things.
The next question is from the line of Sameer Bhise from GM Financial.
Congrats on a very strong set of numbers. My question is for disbursal growth for FY '25 and maybe a couple of years down the road. Because if we look at Q4, it's at, say, 20% on a Y-o-Y basis. How does 1 think about disbursements and. The AUM growth that we are projecting, given that we do a little bit of a long-term lending. So I would say maybe about 3 to 5 percentage points lower than the AUM growth is where the disbursement growth would be.
And secondly, Srikanth, the coverage has been going up gradually, which is a good thing. Where do you see this stabilizing?
Yes. I think where we are is is a stable number. I would not really give too much of an emphasis on 1, 2 basis points this way that we like last quarter, we were at 1.62%. We are at 1.64% as we speak. So I think broadly anywhere between 1.5% to 1.6%, 1.65% is where we would like this to settle at least in the short term. When I mean short term, against the next 1 to 2 years kind of a scenario. And thereafter, depending on how the portfolio performs, how our PD and LGD start up, this number may even come down given that we are fully secured and with secured against 1 of the strongest assets, we don't really see the need to create anything beyond 1.6%, 1.65%.
The next question is from the line of Chander Shaker from Fidelity.
A few questions. Just one, sir. Maybe please help us on the cost of the IFC money on a fully hedged basis. And given that I think raising extra money at this point in time, is it a little cheaper? How do you just think in terms of funding between domestic and externally the share sort of changes?
So Chandra, the bone that we took from IFC is loan. So we did not take it in dollars. So there's no question of hedging there. Yes, the -- so the INR 940 million is the rupee NCD that we issued to IFC, they did not bring in dollars. And so there's no hedging part. The cost has been about what we took at was about 41%, including a little bit of a fee that we paid to them. So it's a per month basis of 9.41% as against cost that we raised money in Q4.
Right. Second, maybe given that by the end of the June quarter, we would cross about INR 10,000 crores, I mean just particularly at a point where you start looking and watching the rating agencies or an upgrade. Just I don't erase on the conversations and if the possibility of a rating grade sometime this year.
Yes. Surely, we are optimistic on that. Chandra. As you rightly said, we are moving from a 4-digit to 5-digit company very soon in this quarter. We will keep approaching them. We'll see how does they see, especially the regulatory environment that has been kicked in for the last 3 quarters for the banks and NBFCs. We have to see how they're poised. From our performance was, we are improving on a quarter-over-quarter basis. So we have to wait and watch.
Chandra, again, I just want to add while Mr. Pati has guided that we will reach out to them. I would still think that Q1 of this financial may be a little early because our first rating update came in December of 2022. So that's just like about 15 months, 15 to 18 months when you go back to the while the INR 10,000 crores is definitely a good metric to go back. But I don't know from a vintage perspective, whether they would like to look at it in Q1. I would probably think it's maybe 2 to 3 quarters down the line rather than June. But having said that, we'll keep making our efforts.
Great. And then lastly, just on the disbursement ticket size, it's more up to about INR 3.5 lakhs. I think directionally, this eventually heads towards 4 lakhs to INR 5 lakhs, INR 4.5 lakhs by the end of this year? Or how should you think of that?
Chandra, we have been saying that we are -- our sweet spot is between INR 300,000 to INR 5 lakhs. That's where we come in and either a small ticket or a microfinance not affordable of INR10 lakhs and above. So we want to be in the range of INR 3 lakhs to INR 5 lakh. That's our endeavor. But taking this inflation into account, be from 3.5, we'll probably be around 400,000 for this financial year. You're right.
The next question is from the line of Dinesh Kulkarni from IDFC.
First of all, congrats on a good set of numbers. I have a very to simple question here. I see we have added close to 2,000 employees the previous fiscal ending FY '24, what sort of number do you expect going forward for FY '25? Can we peg in the same range or it will lower than what we have seen in the last 2 years?
Thumb rule, what we have been guiding is for every employee, the AUM will be around INR 1.25 crores. That's our thumb rule. We will be -- we are now more than INR 1 crore of per employee. So we'll be in the same range, around INR 1.25 crores per employee. That's our range. So depending on our growth, what we have guided is above 30%. Keeping that in mind, we'll be adding that much of employees. Predominantly more employees will be added in the business and collection purpose.
Okay. Just 1 more question. I was -- I think I missed out on the loan disposal. Can you -- can you just explain more why it will be lower -- you expect it to be lower than the previous year. I mean, I think it was 25% or something you said?
Dinesh, the question is not about amount being lower. What I meant was if the AUM grows by, let's say, 32%, which is above 30% that we're talking about 32, 33. You don't need 33% growth in disbursements to come in because -- there is also the portfolio effect that we've taken. So the disbursal growth would probably be more like 27%, 28% rather than being at 32% to 33%. So that's the number that I was talking about. It will definitely be more than 20% that we grew year-on-year.
I got it. Just I think the last question from my end. What kind of expenses in terms of operating expenses, we expect going forward, they were lower as a percentage of AUM? Or assets or they would remain in the same range?
See, for the coming year, for this year, the number is at about 5.6%. This came down from about 6.2%, which was in FY '23. So there has been a sharp drop of about 60 basis points. This is also on account of the productivity increases, the efficiencies that we have brought in, technology improvements and all that. So I would probably think the ability to reduce this further would be a lot more gradual than what will stop between FY '23 and '24. So like we had even guided in a steady state also, we will probably be at about close to 5% of OpEx credit costs. So we are talking about 160 basis points of benefit to come in over the next 3 years. So don't expect a very sharp increase, but you will see some benefits coming through.
The next question is from the line of Aditya from MSE Capital Partners.
Congratulations on the great set of numbers. So I just wanted to quickly understand from the management that how are we looking for the next 3 years, what would be our strategy? I understand that the strategy, the growth strategy that we're looking at will be completely in South India. But I wanted to get a color on what is the AUM for branch and disbursement for branch that we're looking at. And now moving close to 3 years, there'll be more 3- to 5-year branches vintage branches that we'll be having. So if you can just quickly explain that to me.
So Aditya, I'll just explain a couple of points. Firstly, I think we are targeting a CAGR of at least 30% plus growth -- so which means conservatively on a 3-year basis, we'll be able to double our balance sheet. So we'll be close to INR 20,000 crores in 3 years. That's the first point. Now of this, what constitutes this INR 20,000 crores, it will largely be from South -- so today, South contributes 94% of the portfolio roughly. We believe the composition of Central India and North India will at least keep improving over the next 3 years.
But I think still probably about 90% of the portfolio will continue to be contributed by from a branch expansion perspective, we are already at about 520 branches at this point of time. We will very easily be able to double the points of presence in about the next 3 years, which means we will have close to 1,000 prices in a period of 3 years from now. Like Mr. Pati explained in the beginning of the call, this will be through a combination of new branches that we are opening, stand-alone new branches that we're opening and a split branch that sort of emanates from larger branches. The split branch is part of the core strategy. which means we don't want any single branch to become too big and become too risky for any reason, whether it is business, whether it is collections or whether it is people dependencies, we want to make sure that the risks and the operational metrics are contained at a reasonable level. We can also clearly say that I think over the next 3 years, we are not deviating from the core business focus, which is we will continue to be targeting small businesses and self-employed bodies at this point of time.
From a core perspective, we don't have any new product additions. The ticket sizes will be guided more in the nature of inflationary increases. So maybe in about a 3-year period, we will be close to INR 5 lakhs at this point of time from about INR 3.5 lakhs. We have been very consistent with respect to both profitability and quality that will continue to drive whatever that we are doing. So the growth is definitely not going to come at the cost of either profitability or quality.
Understood, sir. Understood. Sir, just a couple of questions. Also in the previous participant's question where he had highlighted -- where he had asked you about disbursement. So just looking at doing simple math, we should be doing easily a 30%, 32% disbursement growth even if we take INR 13.5 crores of disbursement per branch, what we did this year, and we've added close to 147 branches. Is my understanding correct?
So there will also be newer branches that will come in, which may not do the INR 13 crores, INR 14 crores disbursal that we are talking about. So you will always have a little bit of a lag there.
The second point if you can help me understand, say, for example, like how you show vintage while AUM, what would be the vintage-wise disbursement taco less than 1 year, 1 to 3 to 5 and more than 7 years?
No, I think from a branch perspective, vintage, it's driven by the number of people at the branch. So there could be branches where we have only about 4 offices when we are starting, but there also could be branches where we have close to 10 offices. So it's not really dependent on vintage, it's depend on number of people because what we are talking about is incremental business during a month and that's not dependent by vintage. That's more based on how many log-ins each officer is doing and how many offices are there in a particular branch.
Understood. Understood. And in our presentation, we are showing that we want to come down to 8 to 9 days of TAT compared to what we are at today. So this reduction that we are planning to do will it be more tech-oriented that we are expecting our productivity per employee to go up? Or we are planning to add more employees to reach this TAT.
No, I think this will be through a combination of tech plus some process optimizations that we will do. The 8% to 9% is also today driven largely by many external factors because we are dealing with properties, we take an external legal opinion for every property. And that's like a predisbursement or pre-sanctioned condition. So -- there are dependencies so I don't think it can come down by compromising on something which is core to the company. But we still have some tech initiatives. We went live with sales force only last year, and we have a lot of optimizations to do on the sales force. In addition, we will also be able to do some process optimizations that should get us the 15% to 20% reduction in overall TAT.
Understood. Understood. Just 1 last question I would like to squeeze in. So when we talk about the market size of being INR 22 trillion, at our , what would be the market in that you would estimate you would have a much better under on understanding of how the market has looked like?
Sorry, can you repeat your question?
So in the presentation, we highlight that the market size is INR 22 trillion. I wanted to get a color on at our ROI of 23%, 24%. What would be the market -- what would be the actual market because you would have a clear understanding of how underground the picture looks like?
What we have given the INR 22 lakh crore market opportunity is being studied done by Cristin based on 5 star business model. This is not based on on generic point, it was based on Five-Star's business model. Those people who have shops who are self-employed and were afford to give a property as a security. So that's why this number has been brought in. So it's not a broad number. It's a specific number. If you are going to be in a pan-India player. This is a market that it is available to go and pick it up.
So it is a Five-Star specific.
Aditya, just to add another unit this whole thing. We have always sort of maintained that this segment, which is graduating from informal to formal, they are not that sensitive to pricing. I think what they are more sensitive is whether they are able to get a loan and what's the quantum of loan that they're able to get. And when Quantum help them stand on their own legs, whether it is setting up a business or whether it is putting up a new asset in their family. So with this, we believe that it's not about more of interest rate sensitivities in this segment. It's more about pulling people from Informal to former EBITDA into the game.
The next question is from the line of Ajit Kumar from arm.
Congrats for the quarter. My first question would be, what is the need to keep 55% provision of your restructured book? Because I guess most of the restructure book would be classified under -- and now we already have 55% provision on GSI. So what is the requirement of keeping this 55% provision on the restructured book?
So I think about 20%, 25% of our restructured book is in Stage 3. So which automatically has a 55% provision that we are holding. The other part is also that -- see, in the restructured book, what has also happened is there has been a capitalization of interest that we did during the 6 months when the customers did not say when a monitored to the customer. Now that will continue to -- that accrues interest on a month-on-month basis. Now if at all, there is a request from the customer towards the rear end of this loan in terms of any discount that you may need on a settlement there may be some assets that we'll have to take on this accrued and thus not on the alter principle.
So from that perspective, our belief is that we want to carry given that the portfolio is also accruing interest and growing because of the accured interest on a month-on-month and a quarter-on-quarter basis, we believe that having a slightly higher provision on this book will be a little more prudent as compared to because it's also finding its way to the top line every month. So that's the intent of slightly higher production.
Okay, okay. Okay. And second question would be how is balance transfer out trending as of now versus historical level? [indiscernible].
So nothing in material a bit like what we keep telling, -- very few of our customers actually graduate to the next level. So even if you look at BT out today, I think it's more like that we are talking about. So nothing to be really worried about or alarmed about. It's a very, very material number, pretty much in line with historical averages.
Okay. Okay. And lastly, if you can give a sense on balance transfer in rate, I mean people who are coming from other lenders to Five-Star. I remember it used to be roughly 6% to 8%, 1 to 1.5 years back. So what is this number right now?
Formerly, what I'm saying, it is about -- it is right, it's about 5% or so. But these are some formal lenders. -- our basic business model is to graduate these customers from unorganized financial institutions or money lenders to institutions like Five Star. There the number can be significantly higher, which obviously, we don't track straight also because you don't really lend money to the money lender and it does not give you the ability to track as we can track bin from a formal lender. BP from formal lenders continue to be around the 5%, 6% level.
The next question is from the line of Deepak Boda from Safi Capital.
Sir, I just wanted to understand something on the ROE and ROA profile. I mean, over the next 2, 3 years because we do intend to increase our leverage, right? -- currently, it is at 1.1%, 1.2x odd. And as we -- as you increase your leverage, ROA would tend to go down and ROE would tend to go up, right? So we have to see next 2 to 3 years, how do we see the trajectory of ROE and ROA profile for us over the next 3 years?
Yes. So as you said, 1.25% is debt to equity, -- the leverage is at close to 2.2%. What we have been guiding to the market is we never -- we don't -- we will not come to the market for the next 5 years. So the game plan is to increase our leverage to close to 3.5% in the next 3 years or so. As we -- as you keep increasing your leverage, your ROA will come down because you borrow more money and you pay interest on it.
So our guidance for the next 3 years, ROA will be around 6.5% to 7%. And if you multiply that with leverage of 3.5, our guidance for next 3 years or on so, ROE will be around 20% plus. Good thing is we have made a good progress in both increasing our leverage and profitability. So that is -- you have seen that in this year and especially in this quarter, our ROE has moved up 18% less for the quarter. And for the full year, we are at 17.6%. So that shows a very strong momentum that's been coupled with the leverage and the profitability.
Absolutely. And this 3 years that we have seen, we will see a steady increase and a steady decrease in both and ROE right over at the...
That's the game plan. We'll be constantly focusing to increase our leverage under the same business model that will bring down our ROA slightly on a quarterly and yearly basis and increase our ROE to that extent.
Fair enough. Fair enough. And 100% of our loan book is secured, right?
Yes, 100%. No doubt a voted out of 100%, 95% of self-occupied residential property and 5% is the either shop or the vacant lands.
Okay. So 95% is self-occupied residential property.
Yes. And balance 5% is also secured, secured by shops or vacant lands.
Absolutely. I understand Yes. I think you guys are doing a fantastic job, sir. I mean, Kudos to that.
The next question is from the line of Raghav Garg from Ambit Capital.
I just have 1 question. So I think at some point in time in the past, you mentioned that 1 business officer can handle about 120 accounts. And when I look at that ratio today, that's about implying that a typical business office is handling about 80 accounts. So what stops us from increasing the workload on a business officer rather than actually going for newer employees as that would help improve efficiency for you? That's my only question.
So rather it's a combination of having some questions because of attrition potentially, -- so let us say, if every officer is full up on its capacity, and there is some attrition with charters, let's say, in the middle of the month or during the quarter, it's very difficult for you to rearrange that office succulent the others because they are already full up on their capacity. So you can't really optimally operate at exact full capacity in every office. So that's the first part. And second, when you're opening a new branch, it always takes time for the buildup to happen. So it's not going to happen on day 1. So when you're starting each office, let's say, not in about 55 and about 4 files gets approved. It typically takes at least 2 years for the officers to accumulate close to 100 ones. So because of the time line and because of operational reasons, such as attrition, you can't really fully load it up. I think there will always be some lag and cushion, which is there in the model.
Okay. So say we were to look at this number on a 2-year land basis a number of accounts today on a base of employee base, say, 1 year ago or 2 years ago, this number would be higher. Is that the correct way to look at it? What would be...
In that number, if you look at 1 year lag that number is more like about 100 accounts per officer, 3.8 3.8, 3.9 on about 4,000 employees. So yes, that's probably the -- one of the wish to look at it. I wouldn't say that's the most ideal way. The most identity when we get to a lot more steady-state scenario where we are not opening so many branches are not growing at very high levels. I think that is when you would probably reach about 120 or so till that point of time, if you look at a 1 year late, you're right, where they're operating at about 100 to 110, that would be an appropriate number.
Understood. And one more thing. I think you had mentioned at some point that you would double the branches from here on, right? I think the base is about 5 -- is it the right number which I'm looking at and then you will take it to 100 -- sorry, sorry, 520 going to 1,000 in the next 3 years. Is that right? And this would be because of new branches as well as the splitting of some of the existing large branches, correct?
Yes. Saka, you're right. There was a question from a investor for that, we gave a reply that in next 3 to 4 years, how does this business look like? So we have said we'll be doubling our branches from 500 to 1,000. This includes 2 things. We'll be opening 80 to 100 branches year-on-year. That's the guidance that we have been saying to the market. Even last year, we said we'll be opening 80 to 100. We have done more than 100 branches. -- balance is a split, 2/3 of the new branches and 1/3 is a split. So that will get continued. And the split branches will take it away this year and maybe next year 2. So that can be even added. So both put together is what we have said will be close to 1,000 branches in next 3 to 4 years.
So just a follow-up on that. When I looked at historically your business, what you seem to have done is that while the branch expansion has been there, you've deployed more people in the same branch, and that is why your number of people per branch has almost doubled in the last, I think, 5, 6 years. Will that continue? Will you continue to deploy more people in the same branch? Or will you cap it at, say, 18, 20, which is the current run rate right now?
That is the strategy that what we have been adopting in the last 6 to 9 months, which is a cluster strategy. We don't want any branch to cross more than 2,000 upon. It is INR 50 crores of AUM. And we want that to be slipped into 2 to 3 branches. So ideally, going forward, Hisar will operate in the smaller branches where accounts are around 1,000 accounts per branch that is INR 25 crores per branch. That's the ideal. If a brand crosses 1,000 accounts, a flip will be made and a new brand around 5 to 10 kilometers time will be put in, and we'll be transferring some accounts there. So both the branches keep growing. So that is the strategy of let -- if you -- just to recall, there is one unforced incident which has happened in other NBFC, where a huge amount of fraud has been done in a single branch. So I think keeping too much of accounts and too much of AUM in a single branch really is a risk for the from a retail perspective. That is where we thought ahead and we started to put in this cluster approach and spitting branches within the bigger branches. So going forward, we will ideally want to be 8 to 10 number of branches, 8 to 10 members in a branch. Looking after close to less than 1,000 accounts, that will be idle. That has proven in Faistain last 6 to 9 months, the smaller branches are productive effect to and their collections and attrition levels and porcinlevels are far, far less.
Understood. Sir, the 8 to 10 -- sorry, yes, 8 to 10 number that you're referring to enjoy those are just the business officers, right, business and collections...
It's a combination of business collection and the support team. We give 3 supporting for every branch, which is one guy will be credit, one will be cash on and one will be operations. All put together, I say 10 10...
Okay. Understood. Understood. And you'll have the branch capacity handling capacity 1,000 accounts, right? Is that the number which I...
Yes. That is delta is what 800, 1,000 is ideal that what we are thinking right now.
The next question is from the line of Arvin from Sundara Multinet.
Congratulations on the great set of numbers. So like our growth continues to be very strong. But when I set into geographies, I can see that and Telangana is very much strong and that is -- these are the 2 regions have primarily contributed to the AIM growth in FY '24. And there are some moderation in growth in Tamadaira regions. Any particular reasons the growth has slowed down a bit in comparison to like even the overall growth, can it improve like in the subsequent years? That's my first question. And branch additions when we talk about like like will it be like -- is it safe to assume that it will be again in the Southern region, whereas other regions would be minimum 20, something like that.
Yes. On the first point, Tamilnadu and Karnataka has not slowed down, whereas Andhra and Telangana has smooth up. So Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, if you see stand-alone comparing to last year, they have also grown pretty very well. And one more point to add, I've been guiding to you people that the Karnataka was a little lower after when the state was coming out of COVID. For last few quarters, their performance has done extremely very well. The collection efficiency and the quality of asset that we are able to demonstrate in that state. So that state will also be looking up for this financial year. So if you look at this financial year, we will invest a lot in Tamilnadu and Karnataka together that puts both the states competiting with APT, which is really doing well. From the second question, on the branch addition, we have been always guiding 80 to 100 new branches will be put up for Sistar, excluding the split concept, what I said.
Out of that, close to 80% will be in South. As I said, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu will take a lion's share in this financial year with Andhra and Telangana doing really well. So out of 80% put in south and balance 20% will be in rest of the country that to predominantly will be in MP. And Maharastha, we have it, we have very strong presence and Maharashtra, we have a very reasonable presence, and both the states have been with us for the last 5 years. So we have a reasonable experience in that state. So the 20% predominantly will go to these 2 states.
Sure, sir. And then my next question is on cost of fence cost of -- incremental cost of funds is lower than the book. It's safe to assume that I know like the cost of funds would be unlikely to move further from this quarter, there quarter? And like also to get the PSL benefit in terms of bank borrowings, like we needed to a registration of our customers? Has it been done? That's my second question.
Yes. So I think on the first point, I think one of the others had a similar question, and I clarified. Today, there is no big delta between our cost of funds on the book and the cost of incremental debt. And given that we are looking to diversify our borrowing resources, Hopefully, we'll have some more til funds and all getting into this, where we may have to pay a little bit of a premium. We will not see any big benefit coming through in terms of increasing spreads and all that. If at all, there could be a slight compression that may come through because we may want to pay a little higher to on the right kind of lenders to the company.
So there is not much scope for reduction going forward, both on the funds on the book as well as paraincremental debt. In terms of the PSL, yes, what we guided, yes, we have made significant strides in terms of getting Ugregistration, to assess registration for our come. almost about 8,000 to 10,000 customers have already been registered on the portal. So during this year, we are confident that we will be able to onboard lenders who will be lending against PSL assets. So our belief is that out of the overall disbursals of let's say I or INR 600 crores that we are advising for the next year, at least about 25% to 30% of that would be PSL-compliant assets, and we should be able to get benefit on those assets from Linda's perspective.
The quantum of benefit requires to be seen whether it's going to be translating into a benefit on the cost of funds. Our people are going to be newer lenders who have been a little reticent to the company would come in to lend to us and all that. But definitely, we will see at least about INR 1,000 crore, INR 2,500 crores of incremental debt that will be onboard using the PSL assets.
Understood, sir, understood. And we talk about borrowings like infusate is 31%. So remaining should it be like in repooling MCLR in any mix on that? And then another question is on credit cost. Credit cost in this quarter is slightly higher than the previous quarters. Despite our improving Stage I and Stage II ratios. Is it to fortify the PCR? -- any other like indicators, which is showing like...
Yes, you will primarily be Repligen benchmark earning facilities because some of the banks there 1 year MCLR, 6-month MCLR 3-month MCLRs are higher than the overall cost that we are willing to give to those banks. So if we had to borrow from them, we have to go with an external benchmark rate. So the 29%, 30% will be external benchmarking, primarily around repo rate. See, the credit cost increase for this quarter is primarily on account of a technical write-off that we have taken. So the last couple of quarters, we have not taken any write-off. And given that we do get some tax arbitrage because of the write-offs.
This quarter, we did take about INR 6 crores of TAP. So some -- if you really break up the credit cost of 69 basis points, it is roughly 139 basis points on account of ECL provisions and about 29 to 30 basis points because of the write-off. So if you remove that right up, the provision is in line with last quarter. And last quarter, we did not have any write-offs. So broadly, there is no increase in the credit card as such. It is more on account of the technical write-up that we took during this quarter.
The next question is from the line of Chirag Vilokifrom Reata Capital.
Just one question, sir, on the liquidity side or just the cash in hand, could you just help us understand how do you guys think of that? Is it just in terms of number of months of disbursement and OpEx? And even from a future perspective, when you do increase the debt, what kind of cash and annual you want to be? That's my only question.
[indiscernible], broadly, our liquidity policy is to maintain 3 months of operational expenses, 3 months of projected lender repayments and 1 month of projected disbursements in the form of cash. This number will work anywhere around INR 1,500 crores to 50 crores even that our deposits are also fairly strong. We are slightly higher as we think we are at about INR 5 crores. I think we want to continue this policy as we go forward, at least for the next financial year. We will try and see how we can align a lot more closer to the policy than keep more money beyond the policy. But in terms of being a prudent lender and to ensure that we don't take any resets from a liquidity perspective, we would like to continue it. I think another someone that would probably look at it is we will probably have around 15% to 18% of our AUM in the form of liquidity even in a steady-state scenario.
Sorry, could you just repeat the last number 15, how much it is?
15% to 18% of our AUM will be in the form of liquidity.
The next question is from the line of Nitin from Kotak Mutual Funds.
This is Nikhil from Cote Securities. Just one clarification. You mentioned that your write-off is a technical write-off, but it's actually in the P&L, right? So it can't be a technical...
Mission, what we mean and technical write-off is not a listric legal sense of better. It has more to do with the fact that these are places which are recoverable, where we have the property with us necessarily legal actions can institute a to the borrowers. But more -- but because these are is the being cases, and we don't want to continue showing our 90-plus assets we have written off. So there -- what I meant by technical write-off is, there is not too much of doubt on the recoverability of these assets, but it will take time to get the money back from these customers. So that's the difference between practical and technical writeup we might.
And in terms of credit cost, would you be -- because there's something which probably can pick up, right? So in terms of credit cost as per year, your math, would you be closer to where we are at this quarter, which is pro of around 80 basis points or probably the last 2 quarters, we were closer to 50 days 4 months...
I think we'll be more closer to where we are this quarter in. I think we have been in even in the past for about 75 to 100 basis points of credit cost. So I think it will be a lot more closer to where we are this quarter rather than what we inter last year or in the last couple of quarters. So yes, about 5 to 8 basis points is probably the number that we would like to carry on our P&L.
Got it. And just a clarification in the same point that you mentioned earlier, you will probably need to kind of keep something like 20% of your balance sheet in cash and liquid investments. Is it on for reducing it...
Even edit. So as we speak, it is at about roughly around a little less than 20% of our AUM, not the balance sheet. But we believe that the right number would be more around 15% to 17%. So there is definitely scope for reduction. But March during the quarter where a lot of people also want to lend money to you and especially the fact that we got big sanctions from institutions like Rabat, we were okay to maintain a little higher liquidity, but our ID number will be somewhere around 15% to 17% of AUM in the form of liquidity.
So there was actually an improvement, right, between December and March. So if we look at it this quarter, you kind of benefited from maybe lower average escort...
We will be bringing it down. So most likely, March will always be a little bit of an aberration, but the focus is to be closer to the tenant 20%.
The next question is from the line of Dinesh Kulkarni from DST.
My question is you mentioned that most of our branch growth or the growth would come from the south, right, with 90% focus on the south. The question is, why are we not focusing much on the South or Northwest part of India. Are we experiencing any competitive pressures there from MFI or any other competitors?
Not like that. We have been here in south for the last 20 years. So we know this market. We know these customers, their behavioral aspect. Everything we can able to read it very well. And we are happy to say a regional player. We don't want to be seen as a pan-India player right now. That's why our focus are more towards South and South is more stable and especially in collections, South is more stable in collections. And the 4 big states where we have been present, we have not even made a 25% reach in their respective states. So it's a lot to be done in the South itself. That's point number one.
So we don't want to leave opportunity in a known market and go on such opportunity in an unknown market. So that's the logic #1. Second is, having said that, we don't want to see as a north unknown market 3 years down the line. That's why we have been putting our branches in safer zones like MP, where we have close to 60 plus branches there. We have been investing the 60-plus branches in MP for the last 5 years . So we are doing it very well. Since we are breaking MP very well, we are now getting into the Rajasthan, maybe probably Gujarat, a later part of this year, and we have gone into Maharashtra, and we have been in Satish. So these are the states where we are learning our experience slowly, steadily. So it will be very useful. When we look back oursel3 years down the line, where our predominant growth will come from even in rest of the country. That's our strategy.
The next question is from the line of Sagar Dua an individual investor.
Sir, I'm an individual investor. Sir, I want to know what flight as we are earning consistently why we are not paying dividends to shareholders.
Yes, that's a good point. We are in the consideration mode. Bo will be taking a call at appropriate time, and that will be announced more or less soon.
Sir, why is not paying dividend to our share?
I just reply to you. I'm replaying it again. That's a good point that board is considering it. We'll be coming out with the resent process very soon. You'll be hearing this good news from Paita very soon.
Thank you. As there are no further questions, I would like to hand the conference over to Mr. Luxfer for closing comments.
Thank you all. As we have been saying, we are very robust and very optimistic in the product and the profile of customers who we lend. And this optimism will continue and see you very soon.
On behalf of ICICI Securities, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.