UltraTech Cement Ltd
NSE:ULTRACEMCO
Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2024 Analysis
UltraTech Cement Ltd
The narrative shaping this earnings call centers around stable revenue growth with the company expecting to see near double-digit increases ranging from 8% to 9%. Even as profitability measures such as EBITDA per tonne hover at secure numbers, suggesting a consistent performance, the company appears cautious about setting overly optimistic targets for the next quarter. Executives refrain from making specific predictions about Q4, signifying a measured approach to guidance and a focus on delivering on-going projects.
Cost savings seem to be a theme, with a downward trend in fuel expenses highlighted. Petroleum coke (pet coke) has seen a price reduction from $138 to $126, which indicates a decrease in input costs and is anticipated to continue to go down. The management’s confidence in further cost reductions paints a picture of strategic measures being undertaken to manage expenses efficiently. Waste heat recovery systems are also being expanded, adding 16 to 20 megawatts by March '24, exemplifying the company's focus on energy efficiency and sustainability.
Capital expenditure figures unveiled include a total investment of around INR 37,000 crores, with INR 18,000 crores to be completed in the near term. This underscores the company's commitment to growth and expansion, as echoed in the introduction of 6 million tonnes of capacity in Andhra and 3.7 million tonnes in brownfield expansions. The discussions on CapEx and growth forecasts indicate that the company is steering towards substantial capacity increments and is well-positioned to surpass industry growth rates, reinforcing its market leadership stance.
With regards to pricing, demand appears to be the primary influencer, and the company reports robust demand across the country. An important takeaway is that when capacity utilization exceeds 85%, price strength is evident, highlighting a direct correlation between market demand and pricing strategies. However, uncertainty tied to regional elections and their impact on demand and pricing was also discussed, suggesting that the company is mindful of the external factors that could influence its market positioning.
Executives signal that consolidation remains a persistent trend within the industry, hinting at potential further acquisitions and mergers that could reshape the competitive landscape. Specific numbers or names are not disclosed, but the acknowledgment of this trend indicates that the company is attuned to strategic opportunities that may arise. Kesoram's acquisition's potential impact on capacity was raised, although quantitative details were not provided, pointing to an area of interest that could drive future growth.
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Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the UltraTech Cement Limited Q3 FY '24 Earnings Conference Call. We must remind you that the discussion on today's call may include certain forward-looking statements and must therefore be viewed in conjunction with the risk that the company faces. The company assumes no responsibility to publicly amend, modify or revise any forward-looking statement on the basis of any subsequent development, information or events or otherwise.
[Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Atul Daga, Executive Director and CFO of the company. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you so much. Good evening, everybody, and welcome to the earnings call for quarter 3 FY '24 for UltraTech Cement Limited. I will try and keep myself brief today and giving more opportunity for questions.
One of the most critical points which has been doing the rounds is about demand, whether there's a slowdown, et cetera. We believe that this quarter, the industry should grow somewhere around 3% to 4%, not more than that. And there are several reasons around it. And I should clarify it upfront before too many theories start doing the rounds.
Q3 is a festive season, which is generally subdued due to absenteeism of workers from project sites. And this has been a routine phenomenon year after year. Besides, a large country like ours will have something or the other going on. Such issues do hamper the movement upwards. Specifically in this quarter, we had election in 4 major states, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Rajasthan. Fiscal challenges in the states of Bihar, Jharkand, West Bengal. There were floods in Tamil Nadu, cyclone in Andhra, sand and aggregate shortages in some parts of the country, NGT-related construction ban in NCR since last quarter or -- yes, since last quarter, which still continues and severe weather as we speak. We also had rains in Himachal, which impacted the movement of goods.
You must already be aware that the first 2 days of January were also impacted by the truckers' strike, which would impact not just us but entire economy per se. So one should not panic because of such situations. There have been news items like government orders have slowed down. I believe if so, it is only temporarily. India is fundamentally poised for a huge intra-growth, which will benefit all the cement players alike. The bigger point is that any product that has been initiated will go on, and we are seeing substantial construction activities across the country.
So long story short, fundamentals around growth of cement -- growth for cement in the country continue to be the same. We have already started seeing improvement in demand since the middle of December. Slower demand leads to correction in prices and most of the gains achieved initially have been surrendered while Q-o-Q and Y-o-Y, there has been an improvement in prices for the quarter, but towards the end of December exit, prices had corrected largely.
You are all monitoring daily prices, but I wish to reiterate that prices are always guided by demand. As and when demand improves, prices are bound to improve. It's a pure economic phenomenon.
Jumping on to our expansion plans. I think we are happy to tell you that all our expansion plans are on schedule, and in fact, some of them are ahead of schedule. Given the way we are seeing cement consumption going up in the country, we are quite satisfied with the way our expansion plans are panning out. On the last announcement we made for 21.9 million tonnes of capacity, which we call internally Phase 3, orders have already been placed for critical technology items. Civil work has commenced on a few sites. We are confident that the plants will be commissioned as per schedule.
This year, our CapEx cash flow will exceed our initial plans, which we have outlined, and we will spend around INR 9,000 crores. Next year, also, we could see our cash flows on CapEx being around INR 9,000 crores. Working capital has taken up some opportunistic bets on purchase of coal and pet coke, because of which, our working capital is slightly extended.
Both of these elements added to a marginal increase in our debt position at the end of December '23. And given our belief that Q4 will be high -- will be a high throughput quarter, we should be seeing a further improvement in our cash flows and shrinking net debt. Everything else remaining the same, we are working towards reaching a 0 net debt position by the end of March '25.
Going forward, we keep seeing an improvement in costs. As per current data, imported coal and pet coke do not seem to be spiking up, albeit the ocean freight flare up due to the war issues. We achieved a fuel cost of 2.048 per kcal this quarter against 2.184 per kcal last quarter. Blended cost of fuel consumed net of moisture was -- in dollar terms was $150. We use very limited domestic fuel, which is around 6% of our total fuel consumption, and maximum energy is from imported coal and pet coke. We expect to see a further reduction in our fuel cost in the foreseeable future.
With 455 megawatt of renewable energy and 264 megawatts of WHRS, we are now at about 24% of nonfossil fuel-based power, and work is in progress to nearly double this percentage by the end of FY '25. To give you some more numbers, we today, in all, have 44 kilns in operation, out of which 29 kilns have already been covered by WHRS. Work is further in progress on 5 more kilns. The ongoing expansions by the -- which is at the end of completion of Phase 3 by fiscal '27, we will have in all 48 kilns, and 41 kilns will be covered with WHRS. All future expansions, current and further, will always be with WHRS and geothermal power. That is our commitment to sustainability.
I have covered briefly, touched briefly upon costs, demand and our expansion plans. Last but not the least, I must communicate about the recent acquisition that we have announced of -- cement assets of Kesoram Industries. We have already filed the scheme with the stock exchanges. CCI application should be filed shortly, perhaps by the end of this month. And after that, there will be an NCLT process. 2 NCLTs will be involved, which is namely Mumbai for us and Kolkata for Kesoram. The effective date of merger has been kept at April 1, '24. And as and when the merger gets completed, the numbers will be consolidated with retrospective effect once all regulatory approvals are in place.
That's all I had to share with you today from my side, and look forward to questions from you and any more inputs that you may have. Thank you, and over to you.
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Amit Murarka from Axis Capital.
The first question is on other expenses. So like doesn't Q2 has higher other expenses which we saw and Q3 simply witnesses a drop at this time. That drop is not visible. First thing I wanted to highlight was -- I wanted to check, was there any one-off in other expenses?
So it's not a one-off, but when we saw the slowdown -- I should say slow down, [ lukewarm ] response in the markets during October, November, we did some preemptive or early preponement of some maintenance costs, which would have become part of the overall cost during this quarter.
Okay. So recently, this campaign has also been launched with Shahrukh Khan, of course. Congratulations on that. But that is already in the P&L? Or will that come...
Sorry, who is Shahrukh Khan? Yes. Obviously, we will book their expenses. We don't keep anything for a later date.
Okay, okay. And just lastly, I see the slide on the capacity commissioning schedule. Like what will be the clinker capacity addition in Phase 3? And where will you go on total clinker capacity at the end Phase 3?
I think I had already mentioned last time, 10 million to 12 million tonnes, but not getting into details on clinker capacity, but 10 million to 12 million tonnes. So we will always be clinker [indiscernible], that is most important aspect. Just one second, Jhanwar Ji wants to speak .
Yes. See, the first of all, Atul has already just said that our all capacities are always clinker. Actually, we never put the supply grinding facility and not having the clinker on the back side.
The next question is from the line of Navin Sahadeo from ICICI Securities.
Congrats on a good set of numbers. Sir, 2 questions. First, I'll take on prices. So you said by the end of December, prices has turned fairly weak. So this exit of the current...
Not weak, I wouldn't say weak. But the gains which were there in the quarter were largely surrendered.
Fair. So can we say that the cost price like in January is at least, let's say, 2% or some number, so it's lower than Q3?
Lower than Q3, yes, prices will be currently lower than Q3.
Marginally.
Yes.
Okay. marginally. Fair. And sir, my second question was on your recently incorporated company in Northeast and a very peculiar name to it. So I'm just trying to understand, it seems like something has already firmed up and very soon, we could see either a greenfield expansion or some venture in that state. If you can throw some light on this.
So I will throw some light when I have the torch with me. So sorry, not to -- I don't know why I started joking on the call. But we will come back, Navin, We are making progress on our expansion in the Northeast. It has been long overdue. As per the legal requirements, we need a separate entity with local partnerships, local directors, et cetera. So that has been structured. We will come back with details as and when we are ready.
I mean my only question was, given the peculiarity of the name, I could sense that it could be a greenfield venture because there, you don't have to really go into an auction of a mine as such. If you have land already in place, you can start.
Yes, absolutely. Absolutely .
The next question is from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec.
Sir, a couple of questions. First, sir, you used the word, "we have taken opportunistic bets on fuel." Sir, can you please provide some more color over here? You did indicate on a rupee per kcal basis for the quarter. If you have taken some nice bets, does it mean it is lower than the prevailing spot prices? How should we look at it?
So Ritesh, let's keep it for the next quarter. Why should I spill the beans right now? I have also mentioned that you will keep seeing our cost curve sliding down continuously. We will reveal the numbers as and when -- at the end of the next quarter.
Okay. If I put the question the other way around, would we have taken...
I can't turn either way around.
Okay. Right. So probably I'll try to move to the next question then, sir, you did indicate that the incremental clinker capacity you had earlier indicated at 10 million to 12 million tonnes. This corresponds to Phase 2 and Phase 3 together?
This was about Phase 3.
Phase 3. And specific corresponding to Phase 2?
14 million.
14 million tonnes.
Okay. And the incremental announcements which we have detailed, do we -- are we incentive-backed on most of the states? Because I see a few states where...
I'll tell you which places have incentives. So you have Rajasthan, Rajasthan has incentives. Andhra doesn't have. Bihar has. Yes. UP also will have it.
UP has. Tamil Nadu doesn't have?
Punjab [Foreign Language] Punjab is in Phase 2. So Punjab also -- In Phase 3, you would have Rajasthan, UP, Bihar, yes. These states will have incentives.
Okay. So AP doesn't have? I presume Tamil Nadu also would not have, right?
Yes.
Tamil Nadu is very small.
Okay. And sir, when we give a IRR number of 15%, what is the...
We don't take incentives into account.
You don't take incentives into account, okay. That's useful. Okay. And sir, lastly, if you want to just touch upon probably the rationale behind Kesoram, and given we have already announced Phase 2 and 3, would there be a motivation to look at further inorganic assets given we have a very strong pipeline already in place?
So, Ritesh, inorganic is always opportunistic and each transaction has to be examined on its fitment with UltraTech given the fact that we are pretty densely present in the country. So each transaction has to be examined on its own merits. Both -- so fundamentally, I have maintained that we are looking for profitable growth opportunity. So it has to give us growth as well as has to be remunerative.
So at the end of the day, it has to be value-accretive. Otherwise, there may be a number of opportunities. If it doesn't add value, I don't think it makes sense just to add capacity.
Yes.
And sir, my question was will there be anything specific that will make us move or motivate us to look at it? So something in Southern India, which is rich in limestone, would it be of interest?
It's not about Southern India. Let me comment about whole of the entire country. So if it's a profitable growth opportunity, that's point number one. You seem to touch upon limestone. Obviously, it has to be limestone-backed.
Okay. Sure. And sir, Kesoram, basically, the motivation to go for Kesoram?
It has good limestone. We can certainly add value to ourselves, to our customers. We can service our customers in a much better way. Markets are very attractive.
And also the good brand, the markets where they are present.
The next question is from the line of Raashi Chopra from Citigroup.
Just on utilization, your utilization was 77% in this quarter. So what are you expecting in the fourth quarter?
Fourth quarter, historically, if you see, I would expect this quarter also to repeat. However, election date -- depends on election date as and when the election dates are announced and the code of conduct sets in. It's very, very confusing to put a number -- to put a finger to a number. As I already mentioned, mid-December onwards, we started seeing demand pick up, and the signs are very good. Still, if I have to put a number, we will definitely cross 80%, 85% for sure.
Okay. And in your opinion, like for the full year, what should the industry demand growth be for [ cement ]?
We were looking at close to double digits. So 8%, 9% for is a possibility.
Yes. Anything between 8% to 9%.
Just some bookkeeping. On your trade volumes and blended cement for the quarter?
Trade was 64%.
Blended, around 58%.
And when you're doing a blended coal site, what was the pet coke price? Like last quarter, you would mention the pet coke was $138. This quarter?
$126.
So this should continue to go down?
Yes. That's what the trend looks like.
Okay. Sorry, $126 you said, right?
$126.
Okay. And lastly, on the waste heat recovery, your capacity is 264 megawatts right now. Anything more getting added this year?
Yes, about 26 megawatt. In the last 2, maybe 16.
Some more will come in. One or 2 more lines will come in.
Sir, what is the -- is there -- what's the total megawatt capacity expected by '24, '25 on waste heat recovery?
About 16 to 20 megawatt additional will get commissioned by the end of March '24.
Okay. And then beyond that in FY '26?
'25 also, we'll have. So we have 5 existing lines under implementation, out of which you will see 16 to 20 megawatts getting commissioned by March. So 3 lines would have commissioning in the next fiscal year also.
Okay. Sir, just on CapEx. Sir, just one last thing. I don't really want to discuss the EBITDA per tonne for the next quarter. But generally speaking, directionally, prices are basically corrected. I know costs have come down or will come down as well. But I mean, this probably remains like a steady state number, what is reported in the quarter?
Yes. I assume so. I think I'm confident that it's a steady state number.
The next question is from the line of Indrajit, an individual investor.
Sorry, Indrajit Agarwal from CLSA. Yes, after the CapEx, so INR 18,000 crores in the 2 years, how much would be remaining for Phase 3, till Phase 3?
We had total cost of INR 13,000 crores, INR 12,000 crores, so INR 25,000 crores. INR 25,000 crores, out of which INR 18,000 crores is getting completed. So the balance is there INR 6,000 crores -- [ INR 37,000 ] crores.
And given that not all the capacity -- about 2 million tonnes of capacity at Kesoram is not clinker-backed, so could we look to realign some of our like organic expansion to support that? Or how do we...
Yes, we are looking at it. I think in the next -- we have plenty of time. So once we are -- get CCI approval, we'll work more closely with them to understand their plans and how we can realign our capacities.
Sure. And sir, last question, on this post-Kesoram, we will be at around 190-odd million tonne capacity, right?
very close to that number, yes. Very close to that number in India.
And our target is 200 million by '28 -- yes, in India. And our target is 200 million by '28. So do we have enough organic opportunities for getting to that additional 10 million tonnes? Or we'll have to...
Organic, most certainly, most certainly.
Okay. All right. And all those organic, we are still confident it is truly lower than, like, say, $90 to $100 per tonne, right?
Absolutely. No doubt about that.
The next question is from the line of Ashish Jain from Macquarie.
Take the next question, he's dropped down, I think.
Am I audible?
Yes. Yes, you're audible.
Sir, on -- you based your numbers on kilns with WHRS. And while that you said that currently, we are 44 kilns and by '27 we will have 48 kilns. So are we adding this 25 million tonnes between Phase 1 and Phase 2 just across 4 new lines? I was not clear about that.
Yes, there are 4 lines -- 4 greenfield lines getting added.
Of 24 million tonnes of clinker. okay.
The next question is from the line of Prateek from Jefferies.
My first question is on last quarter's demand growth, you said it's around 3%, 4%. Would you have like region-wise distribution of how this growth was?
Very difficult at the moment. We will wait to see numbers from regional players, then it will be better to comment on that.
And your utilization of 77%, how would that be region-wise?
More or less evenly spread, the highest being 80%, 85% and the lowest being 74%, 73%.
Okay. So South the utilizations is half -- I believe the South number would be lower number of on the range. So South utilization for yourself and for the industry has like sustainably moved up? Or is it like we are operating at significantly high?
So we are -- so when we are growing at a pace higher than the industry, our capacity utilizations will also be higher than the industry. That is one. South market has been consolidating and improving continuously. Gone are the days when Southern markets used to operate sub-50%. So you are seeing South markets also going up above 70%, for sure.
Okay. And over the next 6 months, as you concur, like volume growth may like sort of get impacted. How do you see the pricing during this period?
The pricing is, Prateek, determined by demand, good demand across the country and as seen in the past also, when all India -- all India capacity utilization crosses 85%, prices become very strong. So it's a play of demand. If there's good demand, prices tend to improve.
Right. But versus last quarter, when we sort of seen the start of the quarter, we had 5% higher prices all of that roll back. We are sort of having a similar view on pricing we had that time? Or...
My sense is if capacity utilizations in January, March, which has been -- which has precedent, if you go last 2, 3 years, capacity utilizations have been strong, the prices could improve. However, we are heading into election periods. So there might be -- how demand pans out, it remains to be seen.
Sure. And lastly, this INR 25,000 crores of CapEx, you said INR 9,000 crores, INR 9,000 crores and maybe INR 7,000 crores for 3 years. Is this maintenance CapEx also included in this?
All in, all in.
Okay. So maintenance included, we have INR 25,000 crores spend?
Sorry, sorry. Phase 2, Phase 3, yes. So maybe INR 1,000 crores or INR 2,000 crores on maintenance CapEx, give or take. And the WHRS also, which is under implementation. But all put together, CapEx, which I'm seeing this year, we have already crossed about INR 6,500 crores for the 9 months. So we will very unit as INR 9,000 crores on that, which includes both our growth CapEx as well as routine CapEx or maintenance CapEx. This is a trend which we see at least next year, for sure.
Sure. So INR 9,000 crores, INR 9,000 and next year -- FY '26, we'll have like INR 6,000 crores, INR 7,000 crores plus?
It will be higher only, not INR 7,000 crores, because there will be maintenance CapEx also.
And in between, there will be like acquisition EV of around INR 7,500 crores of...
Yes. Yes, that is coming in. That is coming in. So in my commentary, when I mentioned FY '25 net cash on the balance sheet, I am not taking into account this acquisition, which will bring in a debt of 18 -- INR 2,000 crores. .
The next question is from the line of Devesh Agarwal from IIFL Securities.
Sir, firstly, in terms of cost, you did mention that the cost will continue to slide. But based on our inventories, can you give some sense what would be the decline we can expect in 4Q?
We are at $150, no? this quarter. So we are at $150 of consumption this quarter. I would expect 5%, 7% -- 7%, 8% reduction over the next 6 months for sure, it could be higher also.
Okay. And secondly, sir, based on our Kesoram acquisition, you do have some capacity addition plans in waste heat in Southern India. Can there be any rethink or those remain intact?
So I think somebody had asked about this. In the next 6 months, we will come back in case there is any change in our existing expansion plans.
Okay. And sir, in our RMC business, what would be the margin for the quarter?
In what, RMC business?
Yes, sir.
RMC business generally delivers 3% higher...
4%.
4%, sorry. 4% margin over and above cement.
The next question is from the line of Satyadeep Jain from Ambit Capital.
Just a couple of questions. One, follow-up to Navin's question. On the foray in Northeast, I just want a clarification. You already have some limestone assets there in Northeast?
Identified, yes.
But not existing assets. Secondly, on Nawalgarh in the Phase 3, we don't see Nawalgarh. So is there some land acquisition....
No, no. There's -- that will come in Phase 4. Land acquisition is half of it. Because right now, we are doing Kotputli expansion in Rajasthan, which is part of our Phase 2, which will get commissioned. And then we will take up further expansion in Rajasthan in Phase 4, if I can call it that way.
So land acquisition is still going on there?
Sorry. And Nathdwara expansion, my colleague corrected me, Nathdwara expansion is also happening right now.
The next question is from the line of Rajesh Kumar Ravi from HDFC Securities.
Am I audible?
Yes, please.
Sir, could you share the breakup of the pending 2.6 million tonne debottlenecking which was due in second half? And also the slag grinding units, which are expected next year?
So slag grinding units, one is in South, one in West Bengal and third one?
2 in Bengal.
2 in Bengal and one in South. And as far as debottlenecking, I think I have corrected the numbers in this presentation as compared to earlier. So once we are through, we will come back with the details on debottlenecking.
Okay, okay. The debottlenecking there are changes and this Burnpur is already an amalgamated end of Q3?
Yes. Burnpur, we had acquired the assets and not the company.
So this has already done, okay.
It's already in our balance sheet.
And also, can you share the Phase 3, you mentioned some 10 million, 12 million tonne of clinker additions?
Yes.
Across which -- what would be the reason why clinker additions or kilns?
That's happening in the East, North and South.
And what will be the breakup? Because South, we see that you are adding one last, brining 6 million tonnes in Andhra and then brownfield 3.7 million tonnes, which is in, again [indiscernible]. So almost 1 million tonne addition?
Rajesh, let's focus on cement capacity instead of getting into clinker details.
Okay. And total, you said, is how much, sir?
Total of what?
Total clinker across these 3 regions would be how much?
Give or take, 12 million tonnes.
12 million tonnes, okay. And sir, lastly, Q3 volume numbers for various reasons have been impacted. But in Q4, would you -- is it feasible to see a 10% plus growth. Do you have that capacity in place? Is that a reasonable number you're looking at, 10% plus growth in Q4?
Right now given the weather conditions in North, so North is still not doing full steam. Otherwise, all the other regions are performing well. We should see a good improvement in our Q4 numbers. I don't want to comment on a number which is unnecessarily giving directional performance for Q4.
Okay. Sir, just sir, if you work out [indiscernible] sequentially, you're able to deliver 25% volume growth year-on-year, it would still look at some 7% to 8% growth. So the growth base effect will also come in play is what I was looking at.
As I mentioned, Rajesh, I don't want to preclude or reach a conclusion on Q4 in this call. We are focusing on Q3 performance.
The next question is from the line of Shravan Shah from Dolat Capital.
Sir, one data point, what's the premium, sir, for this quarter? .
23%.
23%. And second, sir, definitely, as you mentioned that in terms of the demand for fourth quarter, we are looking at it to improve. But overall, if you look at for FY '25 also, will there be some slowdown in the first half and net-net for the full year, will it be fair to say the max we can see a 6%, 6.5% kind of demand growth at industry level in FY '25?
Maybe, I think so. It is a possibility.
But our growth will definitely will be much better than the industry growth.
Yes, yes. We will have higher growth definitely.
Okay. And on the profitability front, sir, if you can repeat what you mentioned, I was not clear. Did you mention that the profitability still have a scope to improve given the cost curve is still going to be on the declining side? Or will it be -- going forward in FY '25, will it be more from the pricing perspective, we can see the profitability to improve?
I didn't comment anything on future profitability. What I said was you could see improvement or reduction in cost of fuel further. It all depends on how volumes play, how other levers of the P&L play out.
The next question is from the line of Patanjali Srinivasan from Sundaram Mutual Fund.
Sir, am I audible?
Yes, please.
Yes, sir. So firstly, congratulations on a good set of numbers. I wanted to know what a gray cement EBITDA per tonne would be?
Gray cement EBITDA per tonne, we are at INR 1,200 per tonne. Well, INR 1,208 depending upon operating EBITDA, how you calculate operating EBITDA, it would be around INR 1,208 per tonne.
No, sir. So our India business, when we declare numbers and it includes our white cement, RMC also. So I'm just trying to understand, if gray cement EBITDA would be slightly lower. But because of RMC, it will be a blended number of INR 1,208. Is my understanding correct?
Yes. RMC is obviously part of our gray cement business.
Okay. And from a kcal perspective, what would be our cost -- fuel cost for the quarter, sir?
From what perspective?
Kcal.
I already gave it, I think 2 point -- 2.04.
Okay. And where do we see it going in the coming quarters?
Yes, you should have been on the call earlier. I expect....
No, no, I was there. Sorry. Directionally. I just wanted to know how much will it be?.
Directionally it will be reducing. Again, I also mentioned 6% to 8% reduction is a possibility. It could be more, it could be less. I don't have a control on that.
The next question is from the line of Ashish Jain from Macquarie.
Sir, my first question was on expansion. Like when we acquired Nathdwara, one of the arguments was that we can easily double the capacity. But even in Phase 3, there's only 1.2 million tonnes coming in Nathdwara and we have hardly added after the acquisition. So what -- and from profitability point of view also, I think in the past, we have highlighted that Nathdwara is fairly profitable. So why are we going so slow on Nathdwara expansion?
So Nathdwara actually what you are talking, 1.2 million is the cement actually. But the clinker is 3.3 million tonnes. Obviously, the grinding has to take place, not entirely at the sub-site, but in the market.
Right, right. So [indiscernible] wise, you're adding [indiscernible] number? Got it. And sir, secondly, in terms of Phase 1, is it possible to quantify the potential Kesoram offers given you said that one of e...
I missed your question. Repeat, please?
Sir, I'm saying Kesoram. Is it possible to quantify the potential Kesoram has in terms of capacity additions given that was one of the reasons you said for the acquisition?
So whatever we studied their existing location in Karnataka, that definitely has limestone and land available to expand.
Okay. Sir, my last question, like this quarter, if I see nearly 2/3 of your renewable power is coming from wasted recoveries. Out of the 24% 16% is wasted recovery. In 2027, the 60% target that we have, are we seeing the dependence on solar or wind going up or the mix will be maintained?
Yes, no, no, it will go up.
So what will be the mix then ballpark if you have any -- I'm sure we will have a long-term plan.
So solar, we are around 34% out of 60% and 26% would be WHRS.
Sorry, out of -- okay, okay. 34%.
34% would be renewable energy.
No, sorry, sir, I thought it's 60% target by 2025, right?
Total. That is green energy, which includes WHRS also. 85% by 2030, which will be largely delivered by renewable energy.
The next question is from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec.
Sir, 2 questions. Sir, first is we have your long-term carbon intensity target of 62%. This includes Scope 1 reduction of 27% from the baseline and 69% on Scope 2. Sir, is there a road map which is there to reduce carbon intensity? I would presume clinker factor would be one of the variables. So when we're looking at Phase 2 and Phase 3, are we looking at this particular variable to shift significantly? That's the first question.
So to answer, yes, clinker factor will be the largest driver for reducing the CO2 emissions. We have a concrete plan in place to reduce clinker factor. New products which are getting added, variants which getting added which helps improve the clinker conversion factor.
Sir, would it be possible to guide any particular clinker factor numbers, say, by FY '26, '27 or say '28, something in interim before 2032?
No, I would not want to reveal that.
Okay. And sir, as you indicate, we will focus on clinker factors, then how should we understand the demand-supply dynamics for fly ash and slag? If you could provide some color over here and specifically on the cost inflation for both this variables.
My sense says that the country will not have any shortage on account of fly and slag availability. Cement industry will not suffer because of that.
Okay. But from a cost inflation standpoint?
On these commodities?
Yes, sir, fly and slag.
It's a matter of demand and supply. For example, fly ash can vary from 0 cost to INR 500 per tonne plus freight. So it purely is on demand and supply.
Sure. And sir, you said new products getting added. Are we referring to, I don't know, LC3 or something else? Also I would like to have your thoughts given BIS has come up with the norms over here. So is it a variable that we will look at going forward?
Yes. The LC3 is still not -- I would say, the commercialize some pilot scale production has started in the Western world, at least in India, nothing has happened. But yes, it is very much on the radar and we are working on it.
Okay. So we have the product credit. It is just that we have not commercialized. Should we read it that way?
It's not question of product because the product is not so important to produce. But I think the overall, that technology and the scale actually. Because if somebody can produce in, say, 1,000 TPT plant, but it should be scalable to a higher level. And at the same time, the raw material availability is also to be insured, actually at least for 30, 40 years.
Sure. And sir, second -- last question, sir. Can you give some color around -- it's good to see bulk cement terminals being added. If you could provide some color on why, the rationale behind the locations where we are. And after Phase 2, Phase 3 expansion, any broader thoughts on distribution? So we -- I see a lot of jetties on the western coast line, but we have hardly anything on the eastern coast line. So how should we understand that and the location of the bulk cement terminals. Anything on the distribution?
They are clearly determined by the market and -- the mild market and the kind of demand that exists in those markets. And for East Coast, Jhanwar Ji, do you want to say anything?
The East Coast, because the again, the availability of the right kind of ports, et cetera, is generally hampering unlike the way the terminals are there in Southern India. And ultimately, it's a very composite subject. So there you have your integrated facility of cement and what are the markets which can be conveniently sold actually to those markets. So it's a question of taking integrated holistic approach of putting up either bulk terminal or grinding unit.
Right. But again, sir, we don't see much of bulk cement terminals on the eastern coast line. So what we have is pretty few actually.
Because in East, it is not there because everything needs to be more by rail only, and the rail -- availability of rail itself is a major challenge in Eastern India as of now. So there is no -- like the sea movement which is happening from Gujarat to the southern side. It's purely the land movement because most of the cement is coming to the Eastern India from 33rd cluster, actually.
Sir, just one bookkeeping question. Will it be possible -- would it be possible for you to give a split of OPC, PPC, PSC and composite probably for the last fiscal or probably for -- probably I can take it afterwards.
What did you ask?
Product mix, OPC, PPC, PSC and composites.
Everything is blended is one and rest is OPC.
Sir, I wanted to break that thing up. Probably I'll connect offline afterward.
The next question is from the line of Sumangal Nevatia from Kotak Securities.
Just one question left. So Grasim will be launching a Spain venture soon. And at the time of the foray, there was some sort of discussion that the white cement distribution network will be used of UltraTech. So any sort of compensation or benefit we will get? Any quantification since it's very close to launch now?
We are working on a business sharing agreement. But as far as dealer network is concerned, it's a free market, there is no really a royalty that we will get from them for accessing those dealers because they are not our private domain. They are not our proprietary concerns. There are individuals who anybody can approach to do business.
Okay. So nothing meaningful from this?
They are working independently. We have no role to play in their working model or whatever they are doing.
Understood, understood. And just if I may, a second question, I mean, if you see from an industry perspective, last 18-odd months, there's been 3 or 4 big M&A announcements by us and by a few peers. Over the next, say, 1, 2 years, do you see there's further consolidation happening in the industry? And any sort of broad capacity you would like to guide us to? And what sort of consolidation is left in the industry if that would happen?
I think consolidation will be a theme for a few more years. Things will keep happening as we progress along -- as the industry progresses along. That is a given. There are lots of names, and I'm sure you would know them yourselves. Seems roughly for me to repeat them on the call. The names are quite evident, who will be there on the radar.
The next question is from the line of Vishal Periwal from IDBI Capital. .
I think in the call, you briefly mentioned that cement prices in quarter 4 is slightly lower. Regio-wise will it be possible to share how they are currently?
I don't have that immediately.
Okay. Fair enough. And second, I think you did passed upon the fuel cost will be lower in quarter 4. So the 6% to 7% number that is for this particular quarter, quarter 4 on a quarter-quarter basis? Or it is 6 to 8 months.
2 quarters safely.
Okay, okay. Sure. So one can say that probably a split between quarter 4 and quarter 1.
Yes.
The next question is from the line of Navin Sahadeo from ICICI Securities.
Sir, just one question. You've given the plans of Phase 3 coming in end capacity by FY '27. But is there any indication how much we could see in FY '26 as such? Or it will be like a lean year as such?
No, no, no. So it will be spread and keep coming gradually. And as we progress on work, we will give a further granular schedules. Because right now, as I mentioned, technology orders have been placed, a couple of sites have started civil work. Major work will start, I'm assuming in '25. Once there is traction, we will give a schedule -- the way we have given the schedule for Phase 2, we will give a schedule for Phase 3 as well.
Understood. We look forward to that. And just one more question. You said for the quarter, the blended cost is around $150. And within that petcoke was more like $126. So at current spot rates, which are more like $115, $116 , the blended cost will be around $130, $131, which is roughly $20 savings from current levels?
Everything gets converted. Everything is at $115 and you have the math.
Yes. You are able to get at $150 shipments, actually. On shipment gets so far $115 but you all know well that the availability of petcoke is very limited. And with every parcel, the price gets [indiscernible].
The next question is from the line of Amit Murarka from Axis Capital.
So my question was on the carbon trading, which the Indian government is now looking to implement, the CCT scheme, that is. So could you help understand, like I believe the trading will start in FY '26 and FY '25 will be the year when the monitoring starts. So where do you think the benchmarks will be? And is there any potential cost that would come in because of that?
No idea whatsoever. I think I'd love to learn when you learn. Let me know if you come to know about something.
I think there is a lot of talk, but I think it is too early to get a real sense because there are multiple levers the government is yet to take in.
Okay, okay. Got it. And also on the blended fuel cost of $150 and petcoke $126, so the coal, which means implies about $170, $175, correct? I mean, if I'm not wrong in assuming a 50-50 split. And spot coal, as I can see, at least RB1 at all is now at close to $100, $105. So the difference seems to be quite big in that respect, just if my calculations are correct.
So Amit, this is at the 7,500 CV.
Okay. Got it. So -- and -- but what is the split between pet coke and imported coal right now?
50-50 in terms of...
44-46.
Yes, right. 44-46.
Okay, okay. And lastly, Kesoram rebranding strategy, if you could highlight about -- like earlier, we have seen you shift quite fast into UltraTech brand. So will the strategy be similar here? Or will you go slower?
We are not doing anything on Kesoram as yet. First focus is to get regulatory approvals. We'll start working on it after that. There's plenty of time.
The next question is from the line of Aman Agrawal from Equirus Securities.
One question from my end on the Eastern market. So many peers have been highlighting for quite some time about the slowness in demand in the Eastern market, especially in states like West Bengal and Bihar. What would be your take on that? What was the key reason why demand is still not panning out as buoyant as other regions?
I think there have been -- as I mentioned in my commentary also, there have been fiscal challenges in the states of Bihar and West Bengal, because of which there has been a slowdown.
Okay. Second, just lastly on industry growth that you would be expecting for 3Q. I'm sure you said that UltraTech has kind of grew better than the industry. Any number you would like to assign for the industry on...
I mentioned, I think we expect the industry to be anywhere between 3% to 4%.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. On behalf of UltraTech Cement, that concludes this conference. Thank you all for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.
Thank you.