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Good day, and welcome to the Aimco Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Lisa Cohn, Executive Vice President and General Counsel. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and good day. During this conference call, the forward-looking statements we make are based on management's judgment, including projections related to 2020 and future year expectations. These statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, a description of which can be found in our SEC filings. Actual results may differ materially from what may be discussed today. We will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures, such as AFFO and FFO. These are defined and are reconciled to the most comparable GAAP measures in the supplemental information that is part of the full earnings release published on Aimco's website. Prepared remarks today come from Terry Considine, our Chairman and CEO; Keith Kimmel, Executive Vice President, in charge of Property Operations; Wes Powell, Executive Vice President, in charge of Redevelopment; and Paul Beldin, our CFO. Other members of management are present and will be available during our question-and-answer session, which will follow our prepared remarks. I will now turn the call to Terry Considine. Terry?
Thank you, Lisa, and good morning to all of you in this call. Thank you for your interest in Aimco. Last year was a good year for Aimco, as we detailed in the earnings release published yesterday afternoon. And while I'm delighted by these good results, I'm even more energized by the bright prospects for Aimco in 2020 and beyond. We expect to meet or beat the 2020 forecast we made last fall and to finish this year with further growth in prospect for 2021 and thereafter. Aimco has the advantage of world-class property operations, value-creating redevelopments, accretive investments in real estate, long-dated and low-cost nonrecourse property debt and a high-performing cohesive team. In the next few minutes, Keith, Wes and Paul will detail their solid performance in 2019 and our high expectations for 2020. And with that, I offer my Aimco teammates many and sincere thanks for what we accomplished last year and for the success we see ahead for this year. For more details, I'd like to turn the call over to Keith Kimmel, Head of Property Operations. Keith?
Thanks, Terry. I'm pleased to report that we had a solid fourth quarter in operations. Our operating philosophy begins with a relentless focus on customer selection and exceptional customer service. We continue to refine and execute this playbook every day, and it leads to lower turnover, higher occupancy, better pricing power, maximize revenues, avoided costs and better margin. Based on more than 13,000 surveys in the fourth quarter, customer satisfaction was 4.3 out of 5 stars. This is the first time we've achieved this mark, an indicative of our continued drive to deliver a world-class resident experience. This dedication to customer service means that residents want to live with us longer, leading to our lowest turnover on record, 43.2%, a 150 basis point improvement year-over-year. As a result, our average daily occupancy was an Aimco best, 97.4%, 40 basis points better than 2018. And we accelerated throughout the quarter from 97.1% in October to 97.9% in December. This approach translated to solid top line growth, with revenues up 3.3% for the quarter. Our top markets with growth over 4.5% were Denver, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C. and Boston. Solid markets with growth over 1.5% were San Diego, Los Angeles, Atlanta, the Bay Area and Miami. Finally, markets with growth of 50 basis points to 1% were New York, Chicago and Seattle. Now turning to expenses. Controllable operating expenses were flat for 2019 and up 2.1% in the fourth quarter due to lower marketing and turn costs from improved retention, offset by higher investments in our communities. Total expenses were up 2.4% for the year and grew 4.4% in the quarter, driven by taxes and utilities. As a result, fourth quarter net operating income grew 2.9% and margins were 74.8%. For the full year, our margin was 73.7%, a 40 basis point improvement over 2018. Looking at leases which transacted in the quarter. New lease rates were up 70 basis points. Renewal rates were up 5%, and same-store blended lease rates were up 2.4%, 30 basis points better than 2018. As we look at our preliminary January results, we are tracking towards a solid start to our 2020 plan. Blended lease rates are up 2.5%. New leases up 1%, 120 basis points better than 2019. Renewals up 5.6%, a 70 basis point improvement, all while achieving average daily occupancy of 97.8%, some 80 basis points better than last year. Finally, turning to our 2020 outlook, we see another solid year. Our top markets with planned revenue growth of 3.5% to 5% are Philadelphia, Seattle, Austin, Washington D.C., San Diego and Miami. We expect growth of 2.5% to 3.5% in Atlanta, Denver, Los Angeles and the Bay Area. And revenue growth of 1.5% to 2.5% in New York and Chicago. To the operations team, thank you for your dedication to innovation and a passion for serving our residents. I'll now turn the call over to Wes Powell, our Executive Vice President of Redevelopment. Wes?
Thanks, Keith. Today, I'll provide a brief summary of our 2019 portfolio management and investment activities, and will also discuss our plans for 2020. Details on fourth quarter activity can be found within our release. In 2019, Aimco continued with its paired trade strategy, reallocating capital from lower rent growth markets such as suburban Chicago and from properties that produce lower operating margins without the opportunity for value-creating reinvestment. That capital was redeployed into higher growth markets, such as Miami, Denver, Cambridge and San Francisco, while improving upon our geographic allocation and to also increase its rate of investment. During the past year, $230 million was invested in redevelopment and development projects, up 30% year-over-year. This activity creates shareholder value and will lead to accelerated earnings growth when apartments are completed and leased. In 2019, Aimco delivered 335 new or fully renovated homes. Of these, more than 80% are currently leased at rental rates ahead of our underwriting. Now turning to 2020. Aimco expects to increase its annual investment in redevelopment and development to between $250 million and $300 million, creating approximately $100 million of shareholder value. During the year, we plan to complete construction on approximately 500 homes, whose run rate contribution at stabilization will be $17.5 million in annual revenues. Flamingo Point North Tower will remain under construction through 2020. And when its 366 homes are occupied and stabilized, they will contribute over $14 million of annual revenue in a submarket with strong growth prospects. Additionally, we retain a deep pipeline and plan to commence new redevelopment projects during the year and look forward to providing details on those when the time is right. Finally, we will continue to seek accretive opportunities outside of our existing portfolio, where we can earn superior returns as a result of Keith's operational excellence, value-creating redevelopment and ideally both. Any new investments will be funded on a leverage-neutral basis from the sale of communities with lower forecasted free cash flow IRRs. And with thanks to all of my teammates for their continued hard work and constant pursuit of value-creating opportunities, I would now like to turn the call over to Paul Beldin, our Chief Financial Officer. Paul?
Thank you, Wes. Today, I'm going to give a quick recap of 2019 results, provide details on our 2020 guidance, discuss our balance sheet and comment on Aimco's 2020 dividend. First, 2019 same-store NOI growth of 4.3% was 70 basis points better than our guidance of 1 year ago, driven by 50 basis points of better-than-expected revenue growth. The strong same-store growth reported by Keith and the accretive investments discussed by Wes contributed to full year AFFO being $0.03 per share ahead of the midpoint of guidance provided at the beginning of the year. Looking back, it is important to recall that Aimco's year-over-year AFFO growth for the first 3 quarters of 2019 was impacted by the July 2018 sale of the asset management business. With the dilution from the sale behind us, fourth quarter AFFO grew by 12%. We expect the strong growth to continue in 2020. Aimco expects AFFO to be between $2.34 and $2.44 per share, representing $0.19 per share or 9% growth at the midpoint. Approximately, $0.13 of this growth is expected from Aimco's same-store portfolio with NOI growth between 3.2% and 4.6%. The remaining $0.06 of growth is primarily due to a $0.06 net contribution from the mezzanine loan made to the partnership that owns 5% and $0.04 of incremental AFFO from our redevelopment and development communities, offset by approximately $0.05 of dilution from properties sold to fund our investments. Please keep in mind, the $0.04 net contribution from our redevelopment and development communities is expected to increase after consideration of funding costs by another $0.18 per share as these properties are stabilized over the following 3 years. Next, I'd like to discuss the components of our expected same-store NOI growth. We forecast 2020 same-store revenue growth between 3% and 3.8%. Our revenue growth expectations are based on the following: the earn-in from our 2019 leasing activities is expected to contribute 130 basis points to 2020 revenue growth; the contribution of 2020 leasing activities is dependent upon a number of factors, including resident satisfaction and quality, retention percentages, lease pace and lease rates. We expect these factors to add 170 to 250 basis points to year-over-year revenue growth. Blended lease rates are expected to be similar to or better than the 3.4% achieved in 2019. Over the full year, we expect average daily occupancy to increase in 2020, but at a slower pace than the 60 basis point improvement achieved in 2019. While January is not yet complete, and January results are not yet fully available, we are encouraged by what we do know. For example, January 2020 average daily occupancy was up by 80 bps. Turning to same-store expense growth. We expect total same-store expense growth of 1.6% to 2.4%. Of these costs, we expect controllable operating expenses to be up by 50 basis points or less. Aimco's relentless focus on innovation and customer service has resulted in no increase in controllable operating expenses for more than a decade. Now turning to our balance sheet. In the fourth quarter, Aimco sold 4 communities, generating net proceeds of $201 million. Another $300 million of year-end and January sales were delayed. This delay increased our leverage-to-EBITDA ratio by 0.3 of a turn, but we expect better pricing this year as the transaction market remains deep, liquid and attractively priced. Our leverage-to-EBITDA ratio is above our target of 7.0, but we expect this to be temporary. In 2020, we expect to repay approximately $550 million of leverage, funded by property sales and so reduce leverage-to-EBITDA by approximately 1 turn. Looking into the future, we expect continued same-store NOI growth, and an incremental $27 million contribution from our redevelopment and development investments to further reduce our leverage-to-EBITDA ratio by another turn or more. Finally, after a solid 2019 and with strong AFFO growth expected for 2020, the Aimco Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.41 per share, a 5% increase over the regular quarterly dividends paid in 2019. With that, we will now open up the call for questions. [Operator Instructions] Rocco, I'll turn it over to you for the first question.
[Operator Instructions] Today's first question comes from Nick Joseph of Citi.
Wondering if we can get a little more color on the decision to delay the asset sales? And maybe where were you in the process when you made that decision?
Rocco, it's Lisa Cohn. Thanks for the question. We -- and we have a number of properties in the market as we did at the end of last year, and we're just looking for the best execution in terms of pricing. So we presently have a couple under contract, and we're just going to -- people can get the lowest cost of capital. As I think, Paul said in his prepared remarks, we have a broad group of buyers and lots of people looking and so the markets are deep and liquid, and we think we'll get the pricing we're looking for this year.
So when you initially took them to market, the pricing just wasn't what you thought it should be. Is that essentially what you're saying?
I mean we just didn't have to sell them at that moment. And there, we're looking to maximize price and deals have ebbs and flows and things happen as people go through due diligence. And so we had the opportunity to make that decision.
Then what does guidance assume in terms of the timing of the asset sales this year?
Yes, Nick, this is Paul. We expect to sell the $950 million of properties at the midpoint of our range throughout the course of the year. We expect those first sales will occur late in the first quarter, early second and then the remainder will proceed through the year. As we get more of these sales under contract with hard money down, we'll provide more precise timing.
And our next question today comes from Shirley Wu of Bank of America.
So my first question has to do with your 2 markets that you highlighted before of higher supply being Center City and Mid-Wilshire. So in terms of what you're seeing now, have you started to feel the impact in terms of concessions or slower velocity? And when do you really expect to see the full bulk of supply to impact your portfolio?
Shirley, this is Keith. I'll start and then if Paul wants to add some more global supply insights. Your particular question around the Mid-Wilshire portfolio, we feel really good about where we're positioned there. And most of that supply that's coming in is actually in Koreatown. And so why are we -- we're particularly located, we think that it's while it will be impactful in that part of Wilshire, we're further West, and we think that we're in a better spot. We'll keep our eye on it, but we're going into the year in a strong position and feeling good about the look forward in L.A. Paul, anything you want to add to that?
Well, just to comment on Center City, Philadelphia, Shirley, as I'm sure you'll recall, Center City, Philadelphia has seen elevated levels of new supply since 2016. And so the encouraging fact for us is that those levels are continuing to decline, and 2020 is expected to be the lowest year of any of the past 5. And during the previous 4 years, our Center City assets have performed very well. And as Keith highlighted in his prepared remarks, Philadelphia is going to be one of our strongest markets next year.
Great. That's helpful. So my next question has to do with -- for redevelopment plans. So you've previously talked about redevelopment for East 88 in New York. Could you tell us a little bit more about where you are in that process? And what that could potentially look like once it's built in the product offering?
Shirley, it's Wes. Thanks for the question. You're right that that's a project like many that is in our pipeline, and we're actively pursuing that one. We feel great about the opportunity there. It's kind of a perfect case where we've owned property for a long time with high land value and have the ability to unlock that value when the time is right. It would be premature to go into details right now. We're still working through the process. But as I think we stated before, it would be a higher density development on that site, and happy to talk about the details when we're ready to announce that one.
Our next question today comes from John Kim of BMO Capital Markets.
A couple of questions on your guidance. So it sounds like you believe blended lease growth rates will be higher year-over-year and occupancy starting off the year higher as well, yet you widened your same-store guidance both at the top end and at the bottom end of the range and basically kept the midpoint the same. Why would there not be an upward bias on your same-store guidance this year?
John, this is Paul. Thanks for the question. You're right that our -- the midpoint of our guidance that we issued last night was consistent with our preliminary outlook that we published at the end of September. As we discussed on the third quarter call, our preliminary outlook really provided a range where we thought the midpoint of our guidance would land. And so as we are setting guidance for the full year, we continue our historical practice of having about a 100 basis point range around our operating metrics and about a $0.10 range around our earnings metrics, so FFO and AFFO. So nothing more than that.
Is portfolio mix part of this? And also on a related topic, your capital enhancements guidance was down 30% year-over-year. And I know that's been a driver or one of the drivers of the same-store revenue growth. Is that potentially one of the reasons why you've widened that range?
No. To comment on each of those, the portfolio that we expect to have for our same-store pool in 2020 is consistent with what we used to form our preliminary outlook. And then in regards to CE, at the time that we published our outlook, we were far enough along in the planning process so we were expecting a decline in our spend in 2020, and that decline is really driven by nothing more than the fact during both '19 and in 2018, we invested quite a bit of capital in rolling out SmartRent and the associated smart technologies. And now that we're done with that across the entire portfolio, that investment is coming down.
And our next question today comes from Austin Wurschmidt of KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Back to the disposition delays, were those specific to a single market or was it a broad-based group of assets? And were any of those assets within the group that was under contract as of last quarter's call?
They were not any of the assets that were under contract at last quarter's call, those we closed at the end of 2019. And they were in a variety of markets and not with a single buyer or anything like that.
Okay. I appreciate that. And then as it relates to Parkmerced, when was the mezz investment funded? Was it at a single period or is it being sort of funded over a period of time? And then how soon could Phase 2 at Parkmerced get underway? Any restrictions, I guess, related to Phase 1 getting complete or otherwise?
Sure. Austin, it was all funded simultaneously at closing in late November. As to Phase 2, yes, it is conditioned on Phase 1 taking place. They are out right now actively rebidding their design plans for Phase 1a and b. And we anticipate that they will proceed through development processes that continues.
And just 1 quick follow-up. If you did $1.5 million of mezz investment income and as of the fourth quarter. If you annualize that, it gets you to $18 million, a little bit shy of sort of the $27.5-ish million that you might expect. What were the offsetting items for that line item?
Yes, and this is Paul. You're correct that our mezzanine income that was reported on our income statement was $1.5 million. And what that reflects is the and interest that we accrued at the contractual rate of 10%, offset by certain costs that were incurred while originating the loan that were not eligible for deferral.
And our next question today comes from Rob Stevenson of Janney.
Keith, when you and your team put together your market view for 2020, what market or markets had the biggest delta in terms of the range of potential same-store revenue growth outcomes for the year? And is the driver behind the gap anything other than the amount and timing of new supply?
Rob, thank you for that. Really, when we put it together there, we had a stronger pickup when we look at the average daily occupancy from '19 to '20. There's not any particular market that had any particular change or outlook on it that drove the difference.
Okay. And then how is your A, B, C+ portfolio mix going to change when you factor in the $1 billion of dispositions this year? And then what you're doing in the development, redevelopment projects under construction and any acquisitions that are in the pipeline? I mean you're now up to 54% A, that's up 300 basis points year-over-year. How significantly does that accelerate when you factor in all of these transactions that are coming through for you guys?
Rob, this is Paul. I'll address it and let anybody else supplement my response. You're right. Currently, we're about 52%, 54% As, which is a little more heavy than we prefer. And as part of our redevelopments, a lot of times, what happens is that we'll see the greatest opportunity to create value for our shareholders by taking a community that is in A location with [ A dirt ], but at a B rental price. And so thereby, creating value by bringing that community up to an A price point. And so that as a byproduct increases that allocation. But as we look forward, we like to see a greater allocation to that B price point. And so I think as we go throughout our sales this year, you'll see a mix of sales. We still have a few hundred million of assets that are at that C+ and B price point that will be sold likely in 2020. But there will also be an allocation likely of As. And so over the longer term, we'll seek to bring that percentage down.
Okay. So that $1 billion of dispositions, isn't primarily just Bs and Cs there?
It's a mix. And as Lisa said, we've seen a lot of interest in the assets that are in the market, and we expect to see really attractive pricing so that exact mix will be dependent upon pricing. But we feel very confident about the opportunity we have ahead of us.
Okay. So in the near term, you wouldn't expect that the As to get above 60% or anything?
No.
And our next question today comes from Haendel St. Juste of Mizuho.
So Terry, can we go back to Parkmerced for a second. And I guess, I know we had a call about it late last year. But I don't think we had all the information that we know now, the assets, cash flow, the existing CMBS loan. I understand the loan, the attractive coupon you're getting there, the embedded value in the asset and the accretion from the loan, but we've also heard some concerns from investors who see it as the latest detour on your road of simplifications as well as concerns about the cash flow shortfall and the inability, at least right now, to fully cover the interest obligations on your mezz fee. So I guess I'm curious, how do you view when the Board factor all this into your decision process? And is there anything more you want to share for those who might still have some concerns over the transaction?
Haendel, first of all, thank you for the question, and thank you for your tweet this morning. I thought that was thoughtful, and I read, whatever, 15 or 20 of them and yours stood out as insightful. As to your question, about Parkmerced, it is certainly something that the Board and I and the management team thought about. We feel very comfortable about the balance between risk and reward. We think the downside is fairly limited, both as you see from appraisal, but also from the nature of the underlying cash flows of the rent control portfolio. So we feel very good about the downside in it and the upside from 6,000 entitled units without rent control in San Francisco is a big number. And so I think we feel pretty good about that.
Okay. And so it certainly sounds like over the next 5 years, there's an anticipation that the redev and maybe some increased occupancy or rent increases could help cover the shortfall. But if not, you do have the right to force control -- I'm sorry, force the sale of the asset. Is that correct?
I'm not sure, I caught the question. But the first part of it, yes, I'm completely comfortable that the natural operation of the rent control business will lead to increased cash flows that will over time cover the cash requirements of -- or the interest rate of the mezz loan. And as the -- but there's a second part to your question, which I just didn't hear.
Sorry about that. My understanding, and maybe correct me if I'm wrong, is that if that were not to be the case, if there still is a shortfall by year 5, you do have a mechanism by which you can potentially force the sale of the asset. Is that right?
Haendel, this is John. So there is not an explicit forced sale right in the loan agreement. There is obviously a foreclosure right in the loan agreement. If it doesn't get repaid in year 5 when it's due, then there's a lot of different consequences that will come into play.
Okay. Fair enough. And just 1 more quickly. Is there anything on Brickell perhaps you can update us on? Any updated thoughts or plans? I know you've been contemplating a range of options, but just curious if there's anything new to share on that front?
Haendel, it's Wes. Thanks for the question. I'd say, again, in terms of the operating asset there, it's continuing to track along ahead of expectations. We feel good about that. And otherwise, no, nothing new to report, but we like the optionality, and we'll update you if something comes to be.
Our next question today comes from Hardik Goel of Zelman Associates.
Just on the prep, Paul you just mentioned there's some cost components that couldn't be deferred. So as I think about future, what's the good run rate, not just for 2020, but on your assumptions, it looks like there's going to be a slight increase in 2021 as well. What's -- like what's the cadence of including those costs?
So we talked about, Hardik, that the contribution to 2020's AFFO is going to be $0.06, and that's the net of the cost of funding. And so looking forward, we continue to expect to be able to collect a 10% coupon on our $275 million. There's a small amount of costs that we're eligible to be deferred and that will offset it slightly, but not to a massive extent.
So just for clarity, the $0.06 is not net. That's just the accretion from the -- considering the cost of funding, and then you have an additional cost that comes out of the $0.06?
No, the $0.06 is all embedded to 2020's numbers.
And our next question today comes from Rich Anderson of SMBC.
First, a quick modeling question. I see the same-store revenue, top line revenue was about $4 million less in the fourth quarter than the third quarter. I understand you had some asset sales, but the same-store revenue sequentially was flat versus the third quarter. I'm curious as to why there was such a major drop in that line item from about $180 million to about $175.5 million in the fourth quarter?
Rich, it's Keith. I'll start with the flat sequential, and then I'll turn it over to Paul to add the broader look. So when you look at our sequential revenue, while it was flat from Q3 to Q4, what's important to note is there's really 2 significant components in there. The first one being our net rental income, which is all of our occupancy, our rental rates and that particular piece actually grew by 1% quarter-over-quarter. That was offset by a number of lower transactions in transaction income from move-outs and move-in fees, application fees, things of that nature. We would describe that as good/bad news. We retain more residents and had less of that activity that offset it, that flattened it up. But if you go to the core of the business, it actually grew 1%. Paul, what else would you add?
That's exactly as I would articulate it, Keith. The one item that I would add is that, that decline was expected and is consistent with what Keith has been talking about, but kind of too modest to repeat here, in that it's really a function of our operating philosophy and the fact that we're getting customers who are staying with us longer and who are less apt to create charges that are nonrecurring and not necessarily good news, like late fees and cleaning damage costs.
Hey Paul, good job lowering revenue. Anyway so a bigger picture question for Terry and maybe drafting off Haendel's question a little bit, maybe bigger picture. I'm sure you heard it, the mezz deal and Brickell and even Indigo, a few years ago or whenever it was, were -- are somewhat complex in nature. Indigo has worked out for you. These 2 are TBD. And people thinking, well, this is perhaps the Aimco of old, complex stuff and all that sort of stuff. So I thought I'd give you the stage in this conference call to see how you feel about that response. And whether or not is there a bigger pipeline of more complicated transactions ahead or are these somewhat one-off and should not be viewed as sort of a return to a more complicated revenue stream that we recalled back many years ago?
Rich, thank you very much. I guess I'd like to start by hooking on to your insight, that congratulations on lower revenue. In fact, that comes from simplification. And in fact, it comes from our focus not on top line or bad activity but on contribution and margin. So I think that we are going to stay completely focused on cash and value creation and optionality. And I think that in a market that is as competitive as the current market, where there is lots of capital, lots of new supply, it's very important for us as a company to maintain that kind of focus which, to give Keith another pat on the back, is -- has resulted in operating expenses, excluding taxes, being flat for more than a decade. So I'm not particularly worried about us getting off track. Those are just built into our culture and our discipline. And looking at particular investments to arrive at those goals, we're going to be opportunistic. The amount of opportunity to buy fully marketed deals in a very competitive market is not particularly attractive. And so we will look for deals that have additional optionality so to -- that will lead us to these same goals that we've been describing.
[Operator Instructions] Today's next question comes from Drew Babin of Baird.
A question on Parc Mosaic as that has recently kind of had first occupancy. How is the rate achievement on that and kind of the pace of that going relative to your expectations? And I guess, has there been any change to the expected stabilized yield on that? Or kind of your development pipeline as a whole, based on what you're seeing in the market?
Drew, it's Wes. I'll take a first stab and then turn it over to Keith on some details on the lease-up there, but we feel great about Parc Mosaic in Boulder. As you may know, it's a market that is continuing to add jobs at a rapid clip, and pricing had been better than expectation. And we feel that as we move into this year, it will be better yet. In terms of the yields on that, I think we've talked about a range between 5.5% and 6%, but it's early days. And then we're not quite sure where it's going to stabilize, but we feel very good about the spread of where that would trade today at maybe a 4% or sub-4% cap rate market. But Keith, any additional color?
Well, Drew, just to share sort of the absorption how it's being received in the market, we're now 3 buildings that have been delivered. We're approaching 60% pre-leased on those units. We're better than 50% occupied. To give you a context, we just got -- just started delivering on the -- the fourth building will be coming soon. And the rates have been right on par, if not a little bit better, and we're getting ready to get into peak season where we think will be our greatest strength.
Okay. And I guess, more generally, the rest of your development pipeline, the ground-up projects, where do those currently stand on kind of expected yield basis? Maybe give an update there?
Drew, it's Wes again. Again, on all those, they're in kind of early days, but the range there is generally going to be 150 to 200-plus basis points ahead of whatever the cap rate in those markets is. So it's for us looking at the factors of the submarket. So Fremont, for example, which is probably a mid-6 stabilization. But we think, again, based on early pricing, it could be better than that. The Leahy, which is in Redwood City will be north of 5%, but again, that's a different market. So I'd say, overall, we feel very good about where pricing is coming in, where demand is coming in. And as those get past kind of a critical mass of lease-up, we'll give you a better update.
Andrew, this is Paul. I was just going to add, from an overall perspective, we focus a lot on expected free cash flow, IRRs. And for these projects, the returns are all between 9% and 11%.
Okay. I appreciate the color on that. And Paul, as I've got you here, just one question on the debt maturity schedule. I guess, quite a bit of secured debt over the years has been prepaid home opportunistically and given the rates available in the secured market right now probably still makes sense, I guess. Can you give us some guidance on how much potential debt gets pulled forward to be paid down this year from out-years? Kind of what's assumed in guidance?
Yes, assumed in guidance is the expectation that we have about a $220 million of our 2021 maturities that can be repaid at par during 2020. So we have assumed that, that debt will actually be repaid. That's one of the factors that is lowering our leverage. But we also continue to have ongoing dialogue every week with our lenders, and we look for other opportunities to maybe prepay other high-cost debt, if we do so in a manner that is net cash positive to income. So if our interest savings between the time of the debt is prepaid with a prepayment penalty and the date at which that debt can be paid off at par, that's a net positive NPV, we will undertake additional refinancing.
Okay. So to be clear, guidance just implies that $220 million, nothing else. Anything else would be opportunistic?
Correct.
And our next question today comes from John Pawlowski of Green Street Advisors.
Keith, could you share what you're budgeting for LA Metro revenue growth in 2020?
John, thanks for the question. We don't -- wouldn't give you the exact number, but that falls into our 2.5% to 3.5% range, and yes, we believe it will fall in there.
Okay. Maybe a bit more color on that market. I know supply is getting all the headlines right now. But what are you seeing on the demand side? Foot traffic, and then what's the concessionary activity in the market? It seems to be slowing pretty rapidly in your sequential numbers. So just curious what you're seeing in the early innings of 2020?
So John, let me just -- I'll walk you through it. First, our L.A. really is broken into 2 pieces. Like -- so we have our Ventura portfolio, Simi Valley, and then of course, our Mid-Wilshire and West L.A. Not much supplier concern that really comes out of the Ventura piece. As we think about the Mid-Wilshire, we saw occupancy build through the fourth quarter and into January. So just as an example, we started in October at 96.7% and finished January at 97.1%. And so we believe that it's actually -- we're seeing good demand. There's plenty of sufficient demand to meet our needs, and the fundamentals for us have particularly been pretty good.
Okay. And then last one for me. Terry, just what are your thoughts on, obviously, the balance sheet, how it's structured, there'll never be huge financial distress to Aimco. But you would be an outlier versus your peers in terms of being able to play offense in the next downturn, if we ever get one. So curious how you're going to de-risk the company a little bit, so you're not as much of a laggard because the eds and meds in a diversified portfolio resonate, but some steps like buying an office building in Miami, a mezz loan in the Bay Area, that's not fully covered, those seem to go against the safe, low-beta profile that does resonate well with Aimco. So are there any steps in terms of geography or balance sheet that you're going to take over the next few years to de-risk the company a bit more?
John, thank you. That's a -- that's not only a big question, that's several big questions, so I'll try to be responsive. If I miss one, please remind me. On the question of leverage, let me just say, I feel very comfortable with our leverage today. I feel very comfortable with our goal, which is expressed in Paul's guidance to bring it down by a turn, by this time next year. And I feel very good and the point -- about the point he made which is just the delivery of these additional units that are in the pipeline brings it down another turn. So as the natural operation of the business will bring it down to a number in the middle low-5s, which I have no idea where the peers will be at that time, that's a little bit of a moving target. But I think in terms of running the business, not to be comparable to peers, but to be safe and de-risk it, I feel good about that, particularly, of course, with our longer-dated and nonrecourse leverage. The second part of that is -- remind me what the second part was? Oh, in terms of low beta. I don't know that we would say that our target is low beta. I think there's elements of our business that are quite low beta. And there're elements that have great opportunity for value add. And I would think that, in general, what -- as I think, Wes said in his remarks, we've looked for ones where you get both. That you have the opportunity for tails you don't lose, which is low beta, but you have some extra opportunity or potential that leads to heads you win. And I don't think there's anything high beta about 1001 Brickell, which is a very stable asset in a very stable market with good demand and so forth. But it has the extra factor that it could turn out to be worth a multiple in terms of land value, as opposed to that low-beta asset. And so I would communicate to our shareholders that we think that their expected returns are quite secure and yet we also think there's an opportunity for something better to happen.
And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Terry Considine for any final remarks.
Well, Rocco, thank you very much, and thank you, my friends, for your interest in Aimco. If you have further questions, please do call. Many of us will be together in just about a month at Flamingo and on Brickell to look firsthand at whether these are safe and low beta or not. I think you'll be delighted by what you see. And of course, many of us will be together at the Citi Conference in the following week. And so we want to be transparent, keep you posted on what we're doing and we look forward to being together. Have a great weekend.
Thank you, sir. Today's conference has now concluded, and we thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.