Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc
NYSE:BFAM
Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2023 Analysis
Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc
The company has exhibited a strong financial performance, generating $161 million in cash from operations, markedly higher compared to $131 million in the prior year. An effective capital deployment strategy is evidenced by a reduced investment in fixed assets and acquisitions of $92 million in 2023, down significantly from $251 million in 2022. This prudent financial management has contributed to a decrease in the debt leverage ratio from 3.25x at the start of 2023 to 2.8x net debt to EBITDA.
The company has confidently raised the lower end of their 2023 revenue guidance to $2.375 to $2.4 billion, signaling a robust performance through the first nine months and anticipating continued success in various business segments. Full service revenue is expected to grow by 18-19%, while Back-Up Care is anticipated to reach a remarkable growth of 20-22%. Additionally, the educational advisory segment is projected to experience mid-single-digit growth. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) have been narrowed to a guidance range of $2.73 to $2.78 for the year, indicating a solid earnings outlook.
The company acknowledges the current challenges in the UK business but is observing some progression, particularly in staffing. Measures to improve cost-effectiveness, such as reducing reliance on agency staff, are underway. With a longstanding presence in the UK since 2000 and the government proposing favorable changes in childcare requirements, the company remains disciplined yet optimistic about the prospects of its UK operations, citing strategic importance in serving both UK and US markets.
The company recognizes that the growth in enrollment, especially in the higher-needs infants and toddlers group, comes with a higher cost structure due to the intensified requirements for care. However, the company has managed its labor costs effectively and maintained a steady operational margin, expecting to retain over a 30% operational margin in Back-Up Care and a consistent 25-30% range in the advisory business for Q4. These metrics indicate good operational control despite the upward pressures on costs.
The company's primary focus remains on enrolling existing centers, which is seen as the most lucrative near-term growth opportunity. However, the company plans to expand its footprint modestly, anticipating the opening of 20-30 new centers in the upcoming year, influenced by new client partnerships, new lease models, and acquisition opportunities. This projection reflects a well-measured and strategic approach to growth, particularly in light of the cessation of ARPA funding, which could yield additional market opportunities in 2024.
In response to inflation, the company is projecting wage increases of 3-4%, while overall pricing is expected to rise by 4-5%, indicating a strategic pricing model that aims to outpace cost inflation modestly. This pricing strategy is carefully tailored, taking into account geographical variations and center performance to ensure that client enrollment continues to be the driving force behind economic growth.
Interest in the company's services remains high among clients, although decision-making timelines have lengthened due to the long-term nature of committing to childcare facilities. Despite this extended sales cycle, client reception has been positive, and the company is positioning itself to capitalize on this sustained interest over time.
The company effectively managed foreign exchange headwinds and interest expenses, outperforming in backup outperformance and actively monitoring FX rates to mitigate the impact on revenue translation. They have also been proactive in managing variable rate debt through interest rate caps, with an expected consistent interest expense into the next year, showcasing strong financial stewardship.
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Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Bright Horizons Family Solutions First Quarter of 2023 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is my pleasure to introduce your host, Michael Flanagan, Vice President, Investor Relations for Bright Horizons Family Solutions. You may begin, sir.
Thank you, Judith, and welcome to everyone on Bright Horizons third quarter earnings call. Before we begin, please note that today's call is being webcast and a recording will be available under the Investor Relations section of our website, brighthorizons.com.
As a reminder to participants, any forward-looking statements made on this call, including those regarding future business, financial performance and outlook are subject to the safe harbor statement included in our earnings release. Forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual operating and financial results to differ materially and should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary statements that are described in detail in our earnings release, 2022, Form 10-K and other SEC filings.
Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which is made, and we may undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. We may also refer to these non-GAAP financial measures, which are detailed and reconciled to their GAAP counterparts in our earnings release, which is available under the IR section of our website at investors.brighthorizons.com.
Joining me on today's call are Chief Executive Officer, Stephen Kramer; and our Chief Financial Officer, Elizabeth Boland. Stephen will start by reviewing our third quarter results and provide an update on the business. Elizabeth will follow with a more detailed review of the numbers before we open it up to your questions.
With that, let me turn the call over to Stephen.
Thanks, Mike, and welcome to everyone who has joined the call this evening. I am pleased with our performance in the third quarter. We delivered strong results with 20% year-over-year revenue growth and 33% adjusted EPS growth. Full Service revenue came in ahead of our expectations with comparable high single-digit enrollment growth. And Back-up Care delivered an exceptional quarter with use across all care types well outpacing our expectations. Overall, as we approach the end of 2023, I'm proud of our performance and continued progress toward our near- and long-term objectives.
So begin into some of the specifics. In our full service childcare segment, revenue increased 17% in the third quarter to $445 million. The typical seasonal enrollment dip over the summer months, primarily driven by older children aging up and out into elementary schools with slightly better than we expected, driving higher-than-projected year-over-year enrollment growth. The center cohorts we have discussed previously continued to demonstrate improved year-over-year performance. In Q3, our top-performing cohort, defined as above 70% occupancy increased to 36% of our centers, which is an improvement from 25% in Q3 2022.
In our bottom cohort of centers, those under 40% occupancy represents 17% of centers as compared to 20% in the prior year period. To provide a bit more color on enrollment trends, in centers that have been opened for more than 1 year, enrollment growth expanded to a high single-digit rate in Q3 with occupancy levels averaging 58% to 60% in the quarter. In the U.S., year-over-year enrollment increased nearly 12% in these life centers with strong growth across both our client and lease models and notable ongoing momentum in our younger age groups with mid-teens growth in our infant and toddler classrooms.
Outside the U.S., enrollment again increased at a low single-digit rate in Q3, and the U.K. remains our most challenging geography. Enrollment growth in the U.K. improved modestly in Q3 as compared to Q2. But as we discussed last quarter, the macroeconomic backdrop and staffing environment continue to be a headwind to the cadence of our recoveries in the pandemic. In the Netherlands and Australia, where occupancy averaged more than 70%, enrollment increased sequentially over Q2, broadly in line with our expectations.
On the staffing front, the U.S. continued to see positive recruitment and retention trends. Staffing levels increased year-over-year, accommodating higher enrollment, underpinned by increased applicant flow and better retention rates. Outside the U.S., staffing trends continue to be more mixed. In the U.K., labor continues to be a constraint to our enrollment and overall cost structure. As we discussed last quarter, we continue to execute on a variety of talent acquisition initiatives and have undertaken actions to retain our existing staff, attract new qualified staff and reduce our reliance on costly agency staff. While I am optimistic that these initiatives will improve overall staffing levels and operating efficiencies, these efforts will take time to drive a material change in labor costs and the profitability of our U.K. centers.
Let me now turn to Back-up Care, which delivered another outstanding quarter. Revenue grew to $159 million. The 32% growth outpaced our expectations as we delivered a record level of use. Traditional network use was well above our guidance for the quarter with robust demand, notably from families who let children on summer vacation. The strongest growth experienced in July continued through August with our Bright Horizons centers and children base camps, showing the strongest growth across care.
September was another strong month of use, though the piece of growth moderated from the high concentration of use over the summer. Overall, I am delighted with the performance this quarter and the execution by our operations team to meet this surge in demand, ensuring client families would see the care they needed to remain productive at work.
The growth and expansion of our backup services this year illustrates the broad opportunity we have within the Back-up Care segment as we leverage the investments we have been making in technology, marketing and products. Our Education Advisory business delivered revenue of $32 million, increasing 3% over the prior year. Notable new client launches in the quarter for Edasu and College Coach included Fresenius Medical and Hubble Inc.
As I wrap up, I want to take this opportunity to recognize the incredible work of our centered teachers and staff teams. They have always been the key to our ability to deliver the highest quality education and care to families and clients. I am thrilled to share that we just received the results of our parent impact survey. We again saw excellent NPS and customer satisfaction scores and heard overwhelmingly from currently enrolled families that the quality of our teachers and the impact they have on their child's education sets bright Horizons apart from our early education peers.
Our business is fundamentally about people serving people, and this recognition to a great affirmation of the work we do every day. So in closing, I like the continued progress we are seeing across our business. Given our results year-to-date and our current outlook for Q4, we are narrowing our full year guidance to a revenue range of $2.375 billion to $2.4 billion or 18% to 19% growth and an adjusted EPS range of $2.73 to $2.78.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Elizabeth, who will dive into the quarterly numbers and share more detail around our outlook.
Thank you, Stephen, and hello to everyone on the call. To recap the third quarter, overall revenue increased 20% to $646 million. Adjusted operating income of $67 million or 10% of revenue increased 46% over Q3 of '22 and adjusted EBITDA of $101 million or 16% of revenue, was up 26% over the prior year. Lastly, adjusted EPS of $0.88 a share grew 33% in the quarter.
We added 4 new centers in Q3 and closed 9, ending the quarter with 1,063 centers. To break this down a bit further, full service revenue increased $64 million to $445 million in Q3 or 17% over the prior year, ahead of our expectations of 14% to 16%, driven by increased enrollment and pricing. Enrollment in our centers opened for more than 1 year, increased high single digits across the portfolio. Occupancy levels averaged in the range of 58% to 60% for Q3, ticking down sequentially as expected, given the typical enrollment seasonality over the summer months.
As Stephen mentioned, U.S. enrollment grew in the low double digits, while international enrollment increased in the low single digits over the prior year. Adjusted operating income of $7 million in the full service segment increased $10 million in Q3. This year-over-year improvement was driven by higher enrollment, tuition increases and the improving operating leverage across our broader enrollment base. Partially offsetting the earnings growth was a $5 million reduction in support received from the ARPA government funding program over the prior year and the continued cost impact of inefficient labor and agency staffing in our U.K. business.
Turning to Back-up Care. Revenue grew 32% in the third quarter to $169 million, well ahead of our expectations for 12% to 15% growth. And operating income was 31% of revenue, growing to $52 million. As Stephen detailed, use volume was higher than we anticipated, with strong use across care choice, particularly in our school age summer programs. Lastly, our Educational Advising segment grew revenue by 3% to $32 million and delivered an operating margin of 26%.
Interest expense increased modestly in the quarter to $11 million. Excluding the $1.5 million per quarter in both '22 and '23 that is related to the deferred purchase price on our acquisition of only about children. The structural tax rate on adjusted net income increased to 28.5%, an increase of 180 basis points over Q3 of '22.
Turning to the balance sheet and cash flow. Through September of this year, we have generated $161 million in cash from operations compared to $131 million last year. We've invested $92 million in fixed assets and acquisitions in 2023. And comparatively speaking, in 2022, we had invested $251 million, including the acquisition of Ontime children on July 1 of '22. We ended the third quarter of this year with $41 million of cash and a debt leverage ratio of 2.8x net debt to EBITDA, down from the 3.25x that we started in '23.
Moving on to our updated 2023 outlook. As Stephen outlined, we are raising the lower end of our range for the full year revenue guidance of $2.375 million to $2.4 million to reflect the revenue performance through the first 9 months of the year. In terms of segment revenue for the full year, we now expect full service to grow roughly 18% to 19%, back-up care to grow approximately 20% to 22% and an advisory to grow in the mid-single digits. On an adjusted EPS basis, we are narrowing our guidance range to $2.73 to $2.78 for the year.
In terms of the remainder of 2023, this full year outlook assumes that Q4 overall revenue will be in the range of $575 million to $600 million, and adjusted EPS will be in the range of $0.72 to $0.77 for the quarter. Before I close, as we've done each quarter this year, I want to quantify 3 discrete items that are affecting our reported margins and earnings growth rates in 2023. That is ARPA funding, interest expense and the tax rate.
In Q4, we expect those items to account for an approximate $0.25 headwind to year-over-year growth for Q4, with $13 million less in ARPA government funding and P&L centers, approximately 230 basis points higher tax rate and roughly $3 million more in interest expense. Two notes here, the sequential step-up in interest expense to $14 million in Q4 of '23 reflects the new quarterly run rate that we expect through 2024 as our interest rate caps step up this month. Also as a reminder, funding from the ARPA program at P&L centers, which effectively ended September 30 will be $33 million lower in 2024. So in closing, echoing Stephen's comments, we're pleased with the continued progress across the business this year and continue to be excited about the opportunities ahead.
And so with that, Judith, we are open to questions and can go to Q&A.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Andrew Steinerman of JPMorgan.
It's Andrew. I just wanted to ask about the U.K. business. What gives you confidence that you'll be able to improve the U.K. business and kind of how important is it strategically to serve the U.K. and the U.S., let's say, together.
Good evening, Andrew, nice to hear your voice. So look, we have been in the U.K. since 2000, and so know that market incredibly well and understand how to operate within that market. We certainly recognize the challenge that we are currently facing there and have been facing but on the other hand, we also are starting to see some progress as it relates to our ability to staff and our ability to take out some of the agency staffing that we had continued to have.
In addition to that, I think that our quality leadership position in that market really holds us in good stead as we continue to build that business back. I think that in addition to that, we are seeing the government start to have very reasonable proposals as it relates to things like the qualifications of staff, the ratios in classrooms as well as starting to think differently about funding. And so again, from our perspective, we believe that the U.K. and especially the portfolio that we have in the U.K. represents something for our future. We are being very disciplined. So we will continue to look very hard at particular locations that over time are not going to make sense for us, and we'll take the steps to have closures where we think the prospects are not strong. On the other hand, overall, we believe in the U.K. market in the long term and believe that we have a unique position to continue to make progress there.
Our next question comes from George Tong of Goldman Sachs.
You mentioned occupancy levels averaged in the range of 58% to 60% in the third quarter. Can you elaborate on some of the trends that you're seeing with occupancy as you head into 4Q and how you would expect trends to play out in 2024?
George. Sure. The trend there continues to improve, and it's a sequential dip, but as we compare the enrollment year-over-year, and we continue to have a group of centers coming into this cohort that are more than 12 months operating. We feel good about the progress even as it's just sort of steady quarter-to-quarter.
Looking ahead to next year, the -- we mentioned the 3 bands, if you will, of centers that are performing and our top-performing group that was 36% of the total this quarter and we had reported last quarter was 43%. That's the lion's share of where we are obviously aiming to get back to over 70% next year. They have already gotten there. They're achieving that performance now. So enrollment improvement there would be modest next year. It's really in the middle band and the lower band where we would see enrollment progress. And so looking at 58% to 60% now, we would be looking to be growing enrollment again in the high single digits overall next year across the various cohorts and centers that have the opportunity to keep growing that enrollment. So that's broadly how we think about it.
Got it. And just to follow up on that. When would you expect to get back to pre-COVID levels of occupancy rates?
Well, as mentioned in the top group, we are already back to pre-Covid levels. So the middle group, which is just for those listing would be currently enrolled between 40% and 70%. Those centers are averaging in that range of what I even just quoted, they're in that 55%, 60% range. So those centers we would expect to see -- have the most opportunity for growth next year and be very -- getting to the pre-covid levels that they had operated at in the second half is what we would be targeting second half of the year. And then the bottom cohort is a broader mix of centers. And so those would be certainly looking out to 2025 based on the cadence of enrollment that we're seeing now.
Our next question comes from Jeff Meuler of Baird.
Just first on back-up care strength, I guess, it feels like I'm asking the same question as last quarter, which is you keep calling for a deceleration and then the business keeps outperforming. So I can understand like why the case outsized growth from this last quarter won't repeat. But just help me out with like any other factors like the percentage of use banks that are exhausted at this point of the year relative to what that metric typically is? Or just any other constraining factors on the growth because otherwise, it's looking like maybe you're set up for a couple of years of potentially stronger post-code growth given all the clients you signed on during COVID?
So thanks, Jeff. The -- I think you're pointing to some of the factors that do come into the overall mix it is -- our clients have -- a number of our clients have arrangements with us that are essentially on a pay-per-use basis or have a base level fee and then us paying for use over a minimum threshold. And so there's an opportunity, of course, for more users at a client to be utilizing back-up care. But for the most part, clients do have a constraint, if you will, on how much an individual employee can utilize.
And so given the uses that we have seen through the first 9 months, those baskets for the individual employees have largely been consumed for those that are the primary users through the first 9 months. So that is what gives us some pause about just continued growth across a whole new cohort. We will certainly have some new users and be reaching out to all of those opportunities. But I think our view is that with the whole -- sort of the pulling of the summertime with all of the school ages and the concentration of a week or 2 at a time of use for those parents that there has been more consumption a bit earlier in the year for those heavier users. So I think the -- we don't want to have a great story sound negative. It has been a terrific growth trajectory a couple of years now of 30% growth plus in the third quarter. And the components of the way that this business is seasonal is sort of amplified by the numbers of clients who are seasoning in to their use banks. And as they consume the different use care types, we have the opportunity to make that more year round. But that's our outlook for the first day of November.
Okay. I guess we'll see if I'm asking that question again next quarter. On full service margins, just anything else that's weighing margins down relative to expectations in the quarter besides U.K. staffing and enrollment levels. I asked because it looks like there was a decent place shortfall despite revenue upside. And I would think the stronger enrollment growth would be coming at high incremental margins, given the excess capacity that you currently have.
Yes. I mean it's certainly a fair callout. I think other than the U.K., which certainly has been challenged and they've been slightly more challenged than we had -- our outlook had been last time we talked to you all. So we've sort of further refined that for the third quarter's actual results and how we see it coming in the fourth quarter. But I think the only other thing I'd note is that with the higher concentration, the growth of the infants and toddler age groups, which is a positive to the long-term enrollment story that comes at a higher intensity ratio and a higher cost structure as well. And so that's probably the other component that I'd lay out in terms of the labor cost element.
Our next question comes from Manav Patnaik of Barclays.
Elizabeth, just a follow-up on that, and I apologize if I missed it, but can you just help us with your operating margin expectations for the 3 segments. I don't know if anything has changed, I suppose, since the last quarter?
Not significantly. No. I think that back up, just to start there, we've had just over 30% operating margins this quarter. That's similar to what we would expect for Q4. The full service still in the low single digits in Q4, so also similar. And that's -- again, I'll just notice that that's improvement that's performance against a quarter that won't have ARPA funding coming through. And then the advising business is, again, still in the 25% to 30% range. So I would say, consistent.
Okay. And then Stephen, just in terms of your comments around just looking at the portfolio, just curious on ad advisory. It seems like that's been decelerating. It's been missing expectations. You've lowered the expectation of growth there for quite some time. Just your thoughts on whether that's strategically important or not?
Yes. Thank you, Manav. So look, our advisory business, we believe is strategic to the overall enterprise and the relationships that we enjoy with our clients. We have about 300 clients in that area who will depend upon us to either support their employees dependence through the education through education advisory and/or employees going back to school themselves, which, obviously, in the current environment and the environments coming forward is really critical from an upskilling and reskilling perspective.
In terms of thinking about the growth, we said and shared in the last quarter that we absolutely are in a time where we are continuing to reposition that service against the needs of our employer clients and prospective employer clients. and that is underway. We have new leadership in that business and really believe going forward that there is a large opportunity for us to continue to lean in with these clients and new clients. So overall, yes, we believe it's strategic and we believe that we are advantaged in the market and just need to get the cadence of growth, both from an employer perspective as well as from a participant perspective going into next year.
Our next question comes from Josh Chan of UPS.
So for my first question on back-Up care, could you just kind of talk about what is driving the consumer behavior to use much more the benefit now than before? I know that you always try to market your benefits and get the users to use it more. But why is it that this year and last year, especially that the users are accelerating the uses it seems like?
I can start off and Stephen can add color. I think the interesting thing or the notable thing about back-up care to consider that is different from full service care is that it is a benefit that is paid for mainly by the clients. So the employees copayment their participation in the cost is much lower. It's intended to be filling in when another care source breaks down and/or need is there. And so from an employee standpoint, it's an opportunity to lean into a benefit that is provided by their employer. And now with the additional care types that we have across virtual learning solutions across pet care, school age children as well as younger children in centers and in home. I think it's able to touch a wider array of employees at our client partners that have this sponsored as a benefit.
So there's that element, and it's flexible in terms of how it's delivered across the Bright Horizons network of centers across an in-home solution and what have you. So I think there's -- the opportunity is very broad with the employment base and the cost to that consumer is very modest, relatively speaking. Full-service is -- it is also subsidized by the employers through their facilities and often through tuition discounts, but the parent still has a meaningful out-of-pocket cost for it. And it's a more concentrated benefit for a more concentrated number of employees. So I don't know if you have other thoughts on the consumer behavior, Steven?
Yes. I think the only thing I would add, because I can be totally agree with Elizabeth. I would say that over the last several years, we have absolutely been investing in a more seamless experience for the end user through better technology and interfaces -- we certainly have been investing in more personalized outreach and marketing efforts. And so again, I think those efforts are starting to bear fruit. So ultimately, we will continue to have these ongoing opportunities to continue to refine that experience and continue to refine those marketing opportunities and outreach opportunities but believe that many of the investments are starting to pay fruit. And you're starting to see the last couple of years really show some really nice growth on top of what Elizabeth shared in terms of the actual use case growth and demand for the service.
That's really helpful. On the full service side, given that you seem to be expecting fairly healthy enrollment trends into next year, is there an opportunity to open more centers next year than perhaps usual given market demand or to take advantage of any disruptions that you see in the market? And could you just talk about potential center opening cadence into next year?
Yes, sure. So look, I'll start by saying that certainly going into next year, our #1 priority continues to be enrolling our existing centers. That has been our priority. It will continue to be our priority. It is our best opportunity in the near term to continue to grow the impact that we have and to grow the economics that we enjoy. We are calling for centered growth of about, call it, 20 to 30 centers next year. And our expectation is that, that will be a combination of new employer centers that will be opening on bats our clients as well as new lease models and acquisition opportunities. As we have shared in the past, when ARPA ended September 30, we do see that there is likely to be a knock-on effect in terms of other operators in certain geographies, thinking differently about their longer-term plans of continuing to persist with their centers. And so again, we're continuing to monitor that, but that's another aspect of the growth that we may see in 2024.
Our next question comes from Jeff Silber of BMO Capital Markets.
I wanted to continue the conversation about the new center pipeline. I know it's a long sales cycle. I'm just curious in the current environment, are clients still receptive? Or are you seeing more caution given the uncertainty?
Yes. I mean, certainly, we continue to see an elevated level of interest. But as I shared on the last call and certainly is still the case. Employers are definitely taking more time to make decisions. They recognize that putting a center on site is a long-term decision, and so they want to make sure that they are deliberating that appropriately. But again, as we think about the longer-term growth on this, our existing client base is really pleased that they have centers. And I think that those who do not and are considering it are, again, thinking about the impact it can have on their employees as well as their return to office. And so again, elevated interest, but certainly taking longer to make those decisions.
All right. And I know you're not getting 2024 guidance yet, but I was curious maybe we can just frame what you're thinking in terms of price increases for next year relative to cost inflation.
Yes. Yes, we will be providing, obviously, detailed guidance when we talk with you all after 2023 is finished, so in February, but we are in the process of getting through our budget process now. And so from a general cost inflation standpoint, our primary cost in the full service businesses is certainly wages and other businesses have personnel costs but other technology as well. But wage increases, we are looking at likely 3% to 4% from a general inflation standpoint. Other costs are more variable, given inflation, although certainly some of the things like energy have come down. Other occupancy costs have been a little persistently higher, but broadly speaking, call it 3% of inflation.
From an overall pricing standpoint, our look at this point is likely in the 4% to 5% range. So 100 basis points to 200 basis points of spread. We do a center-by-center review and geography by geography. So that's a broad average, but we will go higher where the market permits and where the structure is right. And we are also mindful of driving enrollment as our primary goal as we have talked about. So those are probably the 2 key elements on the structure for next year in our primary full service business.
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Toni Kaplan of Morgan Stanley.
So you beat the 3Q revenue guide by about $30 million at the midpoint, but raised the full year guide by under half of that. I guess, why shouldn't we expect the beat to flow through? I know you mentioned the U.K. was maybe weaker than expected. But is there anything else that we should be thinking about? Or is it just conservatism for thinking about 4Q?
Sure. Toni, thanks for the question. I think that the view, of course, we did outperform, as you say, and we've flowed that through the back-up outperformance really actually, we raised that for the year. It's a little bit lighter in Q4 at the midpoint, but roughly necessary similar. As it relates to the rest of the business, the main driver really is foreign exchange with the FX rates where they are, we carry that forward into Q4, and then that is a headwind against the revenue -- what it translates to in revenue, and that's where I think you see the difference between essentially carrying forward where we think we've performed to date and stay firm.
Great. And then I'd like to ask the full-service margin question in a different way. I guess, ex ARPA this quarter, which I think you said was about $9 million. The margins in full service were actually slightly negative again. What gets it to improve next quarter and going into next year?
Yes. So as much as we have the turnover, if you will, of enrollment in the third quarter and how that manifests itself in averages for the quarter is relatively consistent to maybe a slight uptick in revenue in enrollment in Q4, but it's absorbed into a more efficient structure as we cycle through that Q3, Q4 turnover period. We also have contributions coming from the international operations, particularly Netherlands and Australia tended to operate at a higher level of occupancy and sort of have a steadier contribution that continues to flow through somewhat better in Q4 than Q3. And so those are the primary drivers. But full service business is somewhat seasonal, and that's not always evident in the timing of Q3 into Q4 and how the cost coming into line, if you will, as we transition teachers and transition children into the classrooms in Q4.
Our next question comes from Hans Hoffman of Jefferies.
This is Hans Hoffman from Jefferies. Not 100% sure if you touched on this, but how should we be thinking about interest expense in 2024, given the rise in interest expense on 4Q? And if you brought any insight on to unrest in your current capital structure?
Yes. So as just mentioned, the step up in Q4 that we guided to about $14 million a quarter is what we broadly expect overall interest rate to translate to for next year. We have -- we do have variable great debt, but we have interest rate caps on that floating debt, and so therefore, have a able to manage and contain that cost. But we do have -- we have a payment for Oak, the remaining deferred payment for Oak that will be going out early next year. And so there will be some temporary revolver borrowings in the early part of the year. But otherwise, that $14 million a quarter is a good measure for the year.
Terrific. Well, thank you all very much for joining the call, and I hope you have a great rest of your evening.
We'll see...
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's event. You may now disconnect your lines, and thank you for attending.