JinkoSolar Holding Co Ltd
NYSE:JKS
Earnings Call Analysis
Q4-2023 Analysis
JinkoSolar Holding Co Ltd
The company has made significant strides in both environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices and product advancements. It has been awarded the ESG Transparency Award, emphasizing its commitment to sustainable and transparent operations.
Financially, the company reported solid improvements. It showcased a considerable increase in cash and cash equivalents, rising to $2.75 billion by the end of the fourth quarter. It also optimized cash flow, reduced accounts receivable (AR) turnover days from 87 to 76, and brought down inventory turnover days from 67 to 57, which reflects a more efficient capital management and operational improvement.
The company saw total module shipments soar to 78.5 gigawatts, marking a 76% year-over-year growth. Total revenues and gross profit followed suit, with respective increases of 43% and 55% year over year. This culminated in considerable growth in gross margin, from 14.8% to 16%, and a leap in operating margin for the full year of 2023 to 5%, up from 0.5% from the previous year. Additionally, adjusted net income nearly doubled compared to the prior year, highlighting the company's strong profitability amidst increasing shipments and revenues.
Looking forward, global market demand for photovoltaics (PV) is expected to rise in 2024, albeit at a slower pace than in 2023. The need for increased computing power, led by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), is projected to further augment demand for electricity and associated electrical equipment, presenting a strong growth avenue for the combined PV and storage market.
Despite a lack of specific Average Selling Price (ASP) numbers, there is an observed downward trend in module prices, expected to hit bottom in the first half of 2024. Yet, contrary to a dramatic decrease, the decline is tapering, signaling a potential stabilization or even slight increase afterwards. The ASP appears to vary across regions, with U.S. markets holding a price premium and European markets showing better pricing compared to China.
In terms of regional performance, China's demand is surpassing expectations, indicating a very positive market response. Meanwhile, in Europe, previously depleted inventories are now being replenished, suggesting an improved demand outlook. Nonetheless, the surging demand has not entirely mitigated oversupply concerns, hinting at persistent market challenges and the need for strategic inventory management.
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Hello, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by for JinkoSolar Holding Co. Ltd. Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded.I would now like to turn the meeting over to your host for today's call to Ms. Stella Wang, JinkoSolar's Investor Relations. Please proceed, Stella.
Thank you, operator. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today for JinkoSolar's fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call. The company's results were released earlier today and are available on the company's IR website at www.jinkosolar.com as well as on newswire services. We have also provided a supplemental presentation for today's earnings call, which can also be found on the IR website.On the call today from JinkoSolar are Mr. Xiande, Chairman and CEO of JinkoSolar Holding Company Limited Mr. Gener Miao, CMO of JinkoSolar Company Limited; Mr. Pan Li, CFO of JinkoSolar Holding Company Limited; and Mr. Charlie Cao, CFO of JinkoSolar Company Limited. Mr. Li will discuss JinkoSolar's business operations and company highlights, followed by Mr. Miao, who will talk about the sales and marketing; and then Mr. Pan Li, who will go through the financials. We will all be available to answer your questions during the Q&A session that follows.Please note that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements made under the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. As such, our future results may be materially different from the views expressed today. Further information regarding this and other risks is included in JinkoSolar's public filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. JinkoSolar does not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required under the applicable law. It's now my pleasure to introduce Mr. Xiande, Chairman and CEO of JinkoSolar Holdings. Mr. Li will speak in Mandarin, and I will translate his comments into English.Please go ahead, Mr. Li.
[Interpreted] We are pleased to have achieved a very impressive operational and financial results in a challenging year by leveraging our advantages in N-type TOPCon, globalized operations, and integrated capability. Thanks to strong execution by our team, our module shipment for the full year increased 76.4% year over year to 78.5 gigawatts, back to the top position in the industry. Benefiting from our efforts in cost optimization, our profitability for the full year improved significantly year over year, with gross margin at 16% compared to 14.8% in 2022. Net income was $485.8 million, up 4.56x year over year. Adjusted net income was $573.8 million, up 1.93x year over year. Module shipments in the fourth quarter was 26.3 gigawatts, exceeding our guidance as module prices fell more than expected in the fourth quarter and nearly 50% of our modules were sold to the Chinese markets at lower prices. Gross margin for the fourth quarter was 12.5%, a significant decline from 19.3% in the third quarter.In China, newly-added PV installation reached 216.88 gigawatts in 2023, up 148.1% year over year to a historical high. At the same time, excess supply in various links of the industrial chain led to price declines. Tender prices for modules at the year-end decreased over 40% to below CNY 1 per watt compared to the beginning of the year. Export volumes of PV products in 2023 increased significantly year over year, whereas export volume [ fell ] slightly as a result of decreasing prices. In January and February 2024, seasonality combined with extreme competition from certain manufacturers intensified market panic and irrational prices. We remain cautious and irrational in the face of abnormally low tenders. In addition, while some manufacturers without competitive cost or advanced products reduced or suspended production, we maintained our leading utilization rates in the industry as a result of cost advantage and high order visibility.Into March, as demand picked up and inventory reduced, module prices gradually stabilized and some bidding prices rebounded slightly. In the short- to mid-term, we expect the decline in module price will significantly improve the economics of solar energy, and we anticipate demand in the global PV markets will continue to increase in 2024. Meanwhile, rapid iteration of new technologies and the elimination of obsolete production capacity will also accelerate the consolidation of the industry. Market share for the top 10 module manufacturers is expected to increase from 70% in 2023 to over 90% in 2024. We are confident to consistently enhance our competitiveness through cyclical fluctuations, and we expect our market share to further increase in 2024.Thanks to our integrated manufacturing strategy and our leading position in N-type TOPCon technology in the early stage, by the end of fourth quarter, our N-type capacity exceeded 70 gigawatts, and our cost structure continues to improve. Currently, our mass produced N-type cell efficiency exceeds 26%, while the integrated cost of N-type is almost on par with P-type. With the continuous introduction of new cell technologies and optimization of cost-reducing processes, our cost structure is expected to become more competitive.We attach great importance to intellectual property rights and are fully focused on sustaining our technical leadership based on extensive intellectual property rights. By the end of the fourth quarter, we had been granted 330 TOPCon patents, one of the largest portfolios of granted TOPCon patents in the world.With the largest overseas integrated capacity of over 12 gigawatts in the industry and an effective supply chain traceability system, we have become the most reliable module supplier to the U.S. market, which is expected to generate significant profits in 2024. Furthermore, our investments in innovative production model is expected to generate returns over time. Phase I and II of our integrated projects in Shanxi will start production in the first half of 2024 as planned and gradually ramp up in the second half. The full integration of automation can greatly improve labor efficiency and operation turnover efficiency and is expected to bring a significant reduction in operating costs after reaching full production.In the mid- to long-term, the rapid expansion of AI and electrical vehicles may lead to tight power supply in the world and the demand for clean power generation is expected to further increase. So far, reduced solar cost has significantly increased the competitiveness of solar in the energy sector. In the future, solar as a new quality [ productive force ] is set to play an increasingly important role in face of energy cris and energy transformation. We are bullish about PV market growth in the mid to long term, and we are confident we will continue to lead the industry with advanced technologies and premium high-efficiency products.Taking into account supply chain and market conditions, we are reducing investments in capacity expansion in 2024, we are focusing on expanding our advanced N-type capacity, including 28 gigawatts of integrated capacity in our Shanxi plant and about 4 gigawatts of N-type cell and module capacity in Vietnam. We continue to focus on improving working capital efficiency and achieving sustainable growth in operating cash flow.Before turning over to Gener, I would like to go over our guidance for the first quarter and the full year of 2024. By the end of 2024, we expect the mass produced N-type cell efficiency to reach 26.5%. We expect our annual production capacity for mono wafers, solar cells, and solar modules to reach 120 gigawatts, 110 gigawatts, and 130 gigawatts, respectively by the end of 2024, this N-type capacity accounting for over 90% of total capacity. We expect the module shipments to be in the range of 18 gigawatts to 20 gigawatts for the first quarter of 2024 and 100 gigawatts to 110 for the full year 2024, with N-type accounting for nearly 90% of total module shipments.
Thank you, Mr. Li. We are pleased to have achieved historical high in quarterly and annual module shipment, thanks to our excellent global marketing network and the power of our product. Total shipments were 27.9 gigawatt in the fourth quarter with module shipment accounting for approximately 95%. Annual module shipment increased 76.4% year over year to 78.5 gigawatts, and both module shipments in the fourth quarter and the full year 2024 ranked world #1.We continue to improve product quality and build our customer service network to expand the influence of our brand. By the end of fourth quarter, our accumulated global module shipment exceeded 210 gigawatts, covering more than 190 countries and regions. In terms of geographic mix, China and Asia Pacific became our major shipment regions in the fourth quarter, accounting for approximately 70%. For the full year 2023, shipment to Asia Pacific and North America grew significantly, more than doubling year over year. As we continue to expand our footprint in overseas markets and build our integrated capacity, we move on to invest in North America and emerging markets. Based on our business conditions and market trends, China and Europe will continue to be the major contributor to the shipment in 2024, with North America, emerging markets, and Asia Pacific expected to flourish.On the product front, the competitive high-efficiency [ N-type module ] (17:24) accounted for 70% of the shipment in fourth quarter with average premium of CNY 0.10 per watt versus P-type modules, and [ N-type module ] accounted for approximately 60% of annual global shipment, achieving the goal we set at the beginning of year and accelerated its market penetration globally. Currently, the power output of [ N-type module ] modules is more than 30 watt peak higher than that of the similar P-type module, providing our customers with higher power generation yield.Shipments of our [ N-type module ] were expected to account for over 85% in the first quarter 2024, and its product strength to continue to lead the industry. We are always committed to bring greater economic value to our customer with high efficiency, highly-reliable product, and sustainable solutions. Recently, we unveiled the first Neo Green panels produced with renewable energy. These panels were produced in factories that were awarded the zero-carbon factory certification by TUV Rheinland. JinkoSolar is also the first company in the industry to be awarded with zero-carbon factory certification by TUV for silicon ingot manufacturing, wafer cutting, cell manufacturing, and module manufacturing.We also continue to improve our ESG practices and optimize our traceability system. In the first quarter, we were awarded with the ESG Transparency Award from EUPD Research, which recognized our far-reaching commitment to sustainability and transparency. Recently, bidding for some domestic projects began to be activated. EU inventories became depleted, and we have seen additional demand, especially in DG business. With gradually improved PV economics and a growing demand for transmission to clean energy globally, PV demand in the global market is expected to further increase in 2024, but at a relatively slower pace than in 2023. In longer-term, the requirement of AI for computing power will further increase the demand for electricity and the electrical equipment, ensuring strong growth potential for PV plus storage. As a responsible global company, we are always committed to providing clients with reliable and highly-efficient products and solutions, practicing the values we share with our clients, partners, and investors to accelerate to a greener future.With that, I'll turn the call over to Pan.
Thanks to solid execution of our operation and management strategies as well as successful efforts in cost optimization, we delivered excellent financial performance. For the full year, key metrics such as total revenues, gross margins, income from operations, and net income, all significantly increased year over year. We also improved working capital efficiency and optimized operating cash flow. By the end of the fourth quarter, we had cash and cash equivalents of $2.75 billion and our net debt decreased by over 20 percentage year over year. In December, we announced the extension of our existing share repurchase program, and by the end of February this year, we had repurchased nearly 1 million ADS in aggregate amount of approximately $28 million.With our advantages in N-type TOPCon technology, globalized operations, and integrated capacity, we are very confident in our growth prospect and will continue to improve working capital efficiency and achieve sustainable growth in operating cash flow. Let me go into more details now. Total revenue was $4.6 billion, an increase of 3 percentage sequentially and more than 9 percentage year over year. Gross margin was 12.5 percentage compared with 19 percentage in the third quarter and 14 percentage in the fourth quarter of '22. The decreases were merely due to the decrease in average selling prices of solar modules. Total operating expenses were $526 million. The increases were merely attributable to loss of disposal on PPE and expense in relation to settlement of a dispute with customer. Operating margin was 1.1 percentage compared with 2 percentage last year. Excluding the impact from a change in fair value of the notes and long-term investments and share-based compensation expenses, adjusted net income attributable to JinkoSolar Holding Company ordinary shareholders were 65 million compared with 45 million in the fourth quarter last year, up 73 percentage year over year.Now I'll brief you on our '23 full year financial results. Total module shipments were 78.5 gigawatts, up 76 percentage year over year and total revenues up 43 percentage year over year. For the full year 2023, gross profit was about $2.7 billion, an increase of 55 percentage year over year. Gross margin was 16 percentage compared to 14.8 percentage. The increase was mainly attributed to a decrease in the material cost of solar modules. Total operating expenses were $1.8 billion, up 9 percentage year over year. The increase was mainly due to an increase in impairment loss on PPE, an expense in relation to settlement of dispute with customer, and increase in staff cost. Operating margin for the full year of '23 was 5 percentage compared to 0.5 percentage last year. Excluding the impact from a change in fair value of notes, long-term investments, and share-based compensation expenses, adjusted net income attributable to JinkoSolar Holding's ordinary shareholders was about $574 million, up nearly 2x year over year.Let's move into the balance sheet. As mentioned, at the end of the fourth quarter, our cash and cash equivalents were significantly higher at $2.75 billion, up from $1.93 billion at the end of the third quarter and $1.64 billion at end of the fourth quarter of '22. AR turnover days were down to 76 days in the fourth quarter from 87 days in the third quarter. Inventory turnover days were down to 57 days from 67 days in the third quarter. The total debt was $4.38 billion at year-end, compared to $4 billion last year. Our net debt was $1.6 billion compared to $2.3 billion last year.This concludes our prepared remarks. We're now happy to take your questions. Operator, please proceed.
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Philip Shen with ROTH MKM.
First one is on pricing. Was wondering if you could share with us the Q4 ASP. Sorry if I missed it. And then what do you expect that ASP to be in Q1 and Q2 and as we get through the year?
Gener, would you like to answer the question?
Philip, can you hear me?
Yes. I can hear you.
I'm traveling. So I didn't get all of your questions, but I heard it's about pricing, right? So actually, the pricing significant job happens across December to January. So that means if we compare the ASP between Q4 and Q1, definitely there will be a big gap because of the market price changes. So detailed number wise, I don't have that with me, right? Sorry for that.
Okay. Yes. Gener, so can you share what the ASP was in Q4 for the modules? And then can you quantify how much lower Q1 might be?
Charlie, can you take that? I don't have the number with me now.
Yes. Philip, I think the most important thing is we believe it's the panic sales of the module recent, let's say, 2 quarters. And we don't believe the price, particularly in China, is sustainable. And we're expecting, and as well as the market is expecting the module point has been stabilized and maybe up a little bit. And back to the pricing, depending on different markets, the U.S. it's pretty significantly in price premium, and Europe is a little bit better than China, and different segments, DG versus utility has different price difference. But to answer your questions, I think, [ you want to explore is ], for sure, if Q1, Q2 versus Q4 last year, we think the ASP is still in a downward trend, but it's not dramatically, but slightly. And we think it's reaching to the bottom in the first half year of 2024 for the ASP.
Okay. But you have the average selling price for all the regions for Q4, right? Can you share that price for Q4?
No, we don't disclose, but you can calculate the blended. If you take the total revenue versus modules shipped. And typically, we have 95% of the revenue is coming from module business.
Okay. So it sounds like the bottom could be Q1 or Q2. Or do you think the bottom is more Q2 or more Q1 in terms of module pricing?
I think different company has different mix, but I think it's relatively stable, Q2 versus Q1, maybe a little bit lower, but it's not significant. And that's what we are looking at. And the most important thing is we think that in China the demand is exceeding the expectations. China demand is very, very good. And Europe, the destock has been completed and they are picking up the stock. So we think there's improved outlook from the demand side, but there's still some oversupply situations. But for Jinko we have more -- 90% is N-type and global sales and manufacturing capabilities, and we think we are relatively better than the other peers. But it takes time for the low [ efficiency ] (31:25) capacity tier 2, tier 3 companies to phase out, it takes time, but we think it's the most important thing. We focus on our [ adaptiveness ] throughout a relatively challenging year.
Shifting over to margins. So you've given us a little bit of a framework for how to think about pricing trends through the year. What do you expect your margins to be for Q1? I know you haven't given official guidance, but just relative to Q4, maybe you can say a little bit up or down or something. And then as it relates to Q2, when do you see a bit of a recovery of the margins?
Yes, we estimate the Q1, Q2, first half year it's a little bit lower, slightly lower versus Q4 last year. It's not dramatic lower for the Q4 versus Q3 last year. It's slightly lower throughout the Q1, Q2, but we believe there's opportunities and for the second half year maybe profitability to expand.
And then finally, I think in your slide, we talked about 2 gigawatts of integrated U.S. capacity. Again, sorry if I missed this, but does that mean you might do wafer, cell, and module in the U.S. and can you share if so, what the locations are? I'll leave it there. And I have one follow up on that topic.
Yes, the U.S. capacity, we started constructions last year and it's getting ready, I think very quickly in March or April to start the operation. It's 100% module, 2 gigawatts, no wafer, cell. But we have integrated capacity in Southeast, Vietnam, Malaysia, the capacity is roughly 12 gigawatts to 14 gigawatts. And in the combinations with the 2 gigawatts, the module capacity in the U.S., I think, we are in a good position and on top of that we have separate independent supply chain from the poly, everything to the module. And we have very good traceability systems and proof of record in the last year. So we think this year we have more market opportunities and to catch up for the next 2 or 3 years for the U.S. market.
Okay, so it's only 2 gigawatts of module or it is 2 gigawatts of module, the way it was written on the Slide 6, sounded like 2 gigawatts of integrated capacity could be in the U.S. But my follow up here and then I'll wind it down, and this might be a bit of a tough question, but what is your view of the discussion around the foreign entity of concern language, which a lot of people are talking about, could be added to the 45X manufacturing PTC, which might make it more difficult for you guys to add or to receive the PTC. You're ramping up your facility basically now, if not maybe in a month in April. To what degree does that concern you? Are you following that topic at all?
Frank speaking, I'm not familiar with the topics you are talking about. The foreign entities the regulations updates, but we will follow up after the call. But I'm not sure you are talking about like the semiconductor, sensitive technology. But we think solar is more pervasive and very common for each countries to develop and it's not data sensitive. But anyway, we will follow up the topic you are talking about, but I'm not familiar with the progress.
Your next question comes from Alan Lau with Jefferies.
So I would like to know because there's a very detailed capacity expansion plan and just would like to ask a bit on the details. So, by the end of 2024, it would be 120 gigawatts, 110 gigawatts, and 130 gigawatt for wafer, cell, and module. So my question is mainly on the cell. Because the company has 70 gigawatt of TOPCon by the end of 2023 and supposedly the remaining 20 gigawatt is PERC, and then by the end of this year it's 110 gigawatts. So will it be 100 gigawatt of TOPCon plus 10 gigawatt of PERC? If that is the case, then do you mean you would impair the 10 gigawatt of PERC this year?
The answer is we will phase out 20 gigawatts per capacity throughout the year. That's the plan. And everything we have disclosed by the end of the year, the capacity is 100% N-type, there's no P-type capacity. The cell capacity is 110 gigawatts. And the major part is the 28 gigawatts, the Shanxi super factories plus what we are talking about in Vietnam 4 gigawatts, as well as we have some improvement of production volume in existing capacity. So total is 110 gigawatts for the entire TOP capacity. We did have 28 gigawatts PERC capacity, and we don't have plan to upgrade. And we think it's not economically makes sense. And the most important thing is we have depreciated the capacity over 5 years. So we don't believe we have significant burden for the 20 gigawatts, the PERC. And we focus on the new technology and new product. I think, that is the smart decision.
So just to confirm, basically, for the 20 gigawatt of PERC, they are fully depreciated. So basically, they were built in 2019 and then by now they are fully depreciated. So you do not see major impairment risk this year, right?
Yes, roughly, yes. And we did have some residual value, but it's not significant. Most of the assets have been depreciated.
Yes. That's impressive because a lot of peers in this industry might have a lot of impairment this year. So my next question is what is the new signed ASP for the contracts that you are signing in the U.S. market? Because I have been hearing different feedback saying that prices for utility projects in the U.S. are declining from $0.30 to below $0.30 since 4Q. So I'd like to learn your view on this front.
There's, I think, public index for the U.S. The price range is, I think, very regularly big high $0.20, low $0.30 kind of range. And it looks like it's in the downward trend, but relatively stable. And different customers, different preference. And we think we are in a good position and because we traceability, and we have separate poly through the modules, and we think we can sell relatively at price premium with some peers.
So you have mentioned overseas polysilicon. So we'd like to have an update on the overseas polysilicon price. Is it rebounding or it's still trending down?
I think in recent 3 months it's relative stable, because the polysilicon out of China is around 100,000 metric tons, no new capacity are expected in the next 1.5 year. The other thing is there may be some China poly. But I think there's relative risk and there's a very complicated compliance. And so we don't see significant downward and relatively stable.
So switching gear to the European market because you have mentioned destocking has basically completed. So would like to follow up on this. Are you receiving orders in a normalized manner? Is it from the residential market or its mainly from the utilities market in Europe?
I think both, but in the recent quarter I think the majority is the DG market. But this year both utility and the DG will grow year over year.
So you don't see inventory as an issue even in the DG market anymore because last year it was a huge issue.
Yes. And last year the first half year, they built the stock for the DG distributors and destock, so I think 5 or 6 months. And it looks like on top of that, not only in European market as well as other markets, the customers, they are [ really ] to the bottom of the module price, but it looks like stabilized. I think the price is not sustainable. A lot of customers accelerate the purchase decisions as well as destock, the stock level is going back to normalized level in Europe. And plus the logistic issue. That's the issue. So we see the rebound from the European market and the second quarter pretty sure is a strong quarter for the European market.
And in your PowerPoint, I think, it's the first time that you have officially put ESS into the whole press release. So we'd like to know do you have any quantitative shipment target on ESS? Because I know you have capacity for more than 10 gigawatt-hour. So would like to know on that front
For storage, we build up the capabilities, the teams, products, capacities and majority from last year. And the key focus is we develop our R&D capabilities and products and focus on some key markets. And so far it's in the relatively early stage. But we are confident, and we will discuss maybe the full year the guidance later this year, maybe in the second quarter, third quarter. But this year we think it's a good opportunity to catch up the markets and build a strong foundation for the next few years. So that's the key focus, not the focus for the shipment of this year.
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from William Grippin with UBS.
My first question was just on your 300-plus patent portfolio. I was wondering if you could provide a little more color on where those patents are granted. Are any of them international? And one of your peers is out there asserting their IP rights related to some TOPCon technologies? Just maybe how are you thinking about that? How do you view that relative to your patent portfolio?
These patents, we put a lot of R&D efforts in recent couple of years, and we developed and disclosed over 300 TOPCon patents, which we developed by ourselves. On top of that, we have additional more TOPCon patents by acquisition from others. And the patent is our key differentiators and the key strategies. And we licensed to one of the top 10 module company and one of the top 5 solar cell companies. And it's an illustration how very strong and capable our R&D teams on the cutting edge technology.
Appreciate that. And then just on the 26% mass production N-type cell efficiency that you referenced in the press release, how do you expect that to translate into mass production module efficiency? And when do you think that would ultimately be realized in mass production?
26% cell capacity, we have reached to that level, the mass productions. And our target is end of this year, 26.5%. Sorry, I think for the standard, the 182 mm, I think, we are targeting roughly 610 watt to maybe 620 watt for standard 182 mm modules.
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from [ Rajiv Chaudhry with Intrinsic Edge ].
I have a few questions. First of all, just in terms of housekeeping. Can you tell us what the depreciation number was in the fourth quarter and what you expect it to be in 2024?
So, sorry, could you repeat again?
Yes, the question was about depreciation in the fourth quarter and what the expectation is for 2024.
Depreciation, it's roughly, I think, CNY 16 billion to CNY 17 billion for 2024. So each quarter, roughly, CNY 1.5 billion to, I think, CNY 1.8 billion.
Sorry, can you repeat that? CNY 1.5 billion to CNY 1.8 billion.
Yes, depreciation.
And that's in 2024. What about the fourth quarter.
Last year, right?
Yes, '23. Yes, sorry.
Yes, similar amount. It's not significant different.
So around CNY 1.5 billion in the fourth quarter?
Yes, roughly.
And then what was the total CapEx, capital spending in 2023, and what is the expectation for '24?
For CapEx, yes, let me go into some details. And for 2023, our total CapEx is around CNY 18 billion. And we expect a range in 2024 is from CNY 11 to CNY 15 billion. Depends on the market.
I see. Okay. And out of this CNY 11 billion to CNY 15 billion, is it almost 100% related to the module business or is there anything related to the storage business as well?
It's related to our integrated solar manufacturing.
Okay. The next question is about the charges that you had in the operating expenses. You mentioned that the write-down of assets as well as the settlement with the customer, if they had not happened, then the total operating expense would have been the same as the third quarter. So by my calculation, that is about CNY 0.6 billion, or about $85 million. Is that the correct number?
You're right. We did have some special onetime items in the fourth quarter last year. One is some kind of customer dispute, it's around $30 million. We have some impairment for the equipment around $10 million. So we did have $40 million, I think, one-off items, nonrecurring items.
Okay. And comparing your cost structure to the tier 2 manufacturers, can you give us an idea? My calculation is that your cost structure in the fourth quarter was about 10 percentage points better than the tier 2 and tier 3 manufacturers. So, for example, if you did 12.5% gross margin, the tier 2 and tier 3 were operating at 2 to 3% gross margin. Can you comment on that?
We are confident that our cost structure is leading, and we have advantage. By the way, we don't comment on detailed numbers and different company has different situations. But you're right that if we are, let's say, making low profit levels, I think a lot of companies doing a similar business will lose their money. That we're very confident, but again, I think it takes time to phase out the tier 2, tier 3 companies, and after the consolidation and phase out, then we think we can get more market share and make decent profitability. But it takes time.
Do you think at this point, your cost structure is better than other tier 1 manufacturers?
I don't do 100% guarantee, but we are confident.
So you're confident that your cost structure is already equal to or better than other tier 1 manufacturers?
Yes, we are confident that our cost structure, capacity, technology is leading, yes.
Can you elaborate on the expected cost improvements that are likely to happen as a result of the integrated production that you're going to roll out next year of the Shanxi plant? How much of a cost advantage are you going to create as a result of the integration and everything happening in one location?
It's not purely cost advantage. It's the Shanxi super factories, it's digitalized and automatic. And the [ EST ] traceability is low carbon everything. And we integrated a lot of advanced equipment and streamlined a lot of even phase out some production stage and have significant workforce inefficiency, and very high turnover ratios and very good locations to serve the customers in the West China as well as the global market customers. So the cost structure is reflecting the advantage and it's a big amount, we believe, but we don't disclose. We think it's a big advantage with this existing production structures for the industry.
And finally, I want to confirm number that I think Gener gave. The total volume of shipments of N-type in the fourth quarter, was it 70% of total shipments?
That's 70%, yes. 70%.
And did he say that in the first quarter it will be 85%.
Full year.
That is full year, it's around 90%. So gradually from 70% to 95% quarter by quarter and this year. So Q1, this year, I think is roughly 80%.
Okay. So in terms of going back to the gross margin. So you are suggesting that the first quarter gross margin should be slightly lower than the fourth quarter. So are we still looking at number around 12%?
You mean the absolute number?
Yes. The actual gross margin.
Yes, we don't disclose that, but I said it was slightly downward but not dramatically. We think it's reaching the bottom for the first half year.
So if the gross margin is around 12% in the first quarter and the prices stabilize from March, April onwards, is it reasonable to think that gross margin could improve in the second quarter because your costs will keep on coming down, and also your shipments to the U.S., which are higher ASP, will go up?
We think we have more likelihood to improve in the second half year, the improved demand outlook. And you are talking about U.S. shipments, it's the second half year loaded. And I think roughly maybe, let's say, 65% shipments in the U.S. in the second half year as well as the Shanxi super factories is doing the pilot productions the first half year, but will be 100% operational by the end of the third quarter. So everything together, we think the margin expansion is likely in your second half year.
And what do you think the impact of -- you mentioned that by the fourth quarter, you expect that tier 1 companies or top 10 manufacturers will have as much as 90% of the market. That basically means tier 3 will have shut down and tier 2 will be selling much lower output than they are selling right now. What do you think that does to pricing by the fourth quarter?
The fourth quarter this year, right?
Yes.
It's difficult to estimate, but I think it should be stabilized. And on top, the most important thing is, I think by the end of the fourth quarter, I believe, a lot of industry players for tier 2, tier 3 and as well as the companies, they never in the solar industry but entered in recent 1 or 2 years, those guys are going to -- the capacity will be phased out 100%. So that's my estimation.
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. And that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.