Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc
NYSE:NREF
Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc
NYSE:NREF
Price:
13.23 USD
2.16%
Updated:
May 3, 2024
Section:
Earnings Call Analysis
Q4-2023 Analysis
Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc
Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc
Financial Performance Overview
- NexPoint reported a significant improvement in net income, with $0.74 per diluted share in Q4 2023 compared to a net loss of $0.17 per diluted share in Q4 2022.
Operational Highlights and Strategic Initiatives
- NexPoint actively deployed capital, making preferred equity investments and SFR ABS paper purchases, aiming for low to mid-double-digit returns on stable assets.
Future Prospects and Outlook
- NexPoint anticipates increasing cash available for distribution by 15% to 20% over the next 12 months, driven by successful Series B preferred equity offerings and a promising investment pipeline.
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Good morning. My name is Dennis, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the NexPoint Real Estate Finance Fourth Quarter 2023 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Kristen Thomas, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good day, everyone, and welcome to NexPoint Real Estate Finance conference call to review the company's results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2023. On the call today are Brian Mitts, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Matt McGraner, Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer; and Paul Richards, Vice President, Originations and Investments. As a reminder, this call is being webcast through the company's website at nref.nexpoint.com. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that this conference call contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 that are based on management's current expectations, assumptions and beliefs. Listeners should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements and are encouraged to review the company's annual report on Form 10-K and the company's other filings with the SEC for a more complete discussion of risks and other factors that could affect the forward-looking statements. The statements made during this conference call speak only as of today's date and as -- and except as required by law, NREF does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. This conference call also includes an analysis of non-GAAP financial measures. For a more complete discussion of these non-GAAP financial measures, see the company's presentation that was filed earlier today. I would now like to turn the call over to Brian Mitts. Please go ahead, Brian.
Thank you, Kristen. Appreciate everyone joining us this morning. I'm going to briefly discuss our quarterly and year-to-date results, and then I'll go through some portfolio metrics, talk about the balance sheet a little bit and then provide guidance for the next quarter. Then I'll turn it over to Matt and Paul to discuss the portfolio in a little more depth and the macro lending environment. So starting with our fourth quarter results, they're as follows. We reported net income of $0.74 per diluted share compared to a net loss of $0.17 per diluted share for the fourth quarter 2022. The increase was largely driven by mark-to-market adjustments on our common stock investments and changes in our net assets related to our consolidated CMBS VIEs. Net interest income increased to $3.8 million for the fourth quarter '23 from $0.3 million in the fourth quarter '22. The increase is driven primarily by more originations and preferred equity investments with higher yields and partially offset by higher financing costs in 2023. Earnings available for distribution was $0.44 per diluted share in the fourth quarter compared to $0.42 per share -- per diluted share in the same period 2022 and $0.43 per diluted share in the third quarter of '23. Cash available for distribution was $0.51 per diluted share in the fourth quarter compared to $0.45 per diluted share in the fourth quarter '22. The increase in earnings available for distribution and cash payable for distribution from the prior year was partially driven by originations of additional private preferred investments. We paid a dividend of $0.50 per share in the fourth quarter, and the Board has declared a dividend of $0.50 per share payable for the first quarter of '24. Our dividend in the fourth quarter was 0.8x -- sorry, 0.88x covered by earnings available for distribution and 1.02x covered by cash available for distribution. Book value per share decreased 10.4% year-over-year and increased 0.7% quarter-over-quarter to $17.93 per diluted share, the decrease year-over-year being primarily due to the $0.34 special dividends paid out during the year and the increase of prior quarter being primarily driven by mark-to-market increases. During the quarter, we contributed to 5 preferred equity investments with $16.5 million of outstanding principal and originated 1 loan with $15.3 million of outstanding principal. These 6 investments had a blended all-in yield of 11.5%. We had 3 senior loans redeemed for $29.5 million of outstanding principal and 1 preferred investment redeemed for $3.5 million of outstanding principal. So moving to year-to-date results, they're as follows. We reported net income of $0.60 per diluted share compared to net income of $0.22 per diluted share in 2022. The increase was largely driven by changes in net assets related to our consolidated CMBS VIEs as compared to 2022. Net interest income decreased 55.5% to $16.8 million, $37.7 million in 2022. The decrease was driven primarily by prepayments on our SFR loans in CMBS portfolio and higher financing costs in '23. Earnings available for distribution was $1.51 per diluted share in 2023 compared to $2.50 per share in 2022. Cash available for distribution was $1.67 per diluted share compared to $2.97 per diluted share in 2022. The decrease in earnings available for distribution and cash available for distribution for the year was partially driven by higher weighted average share count, increased financing costs as well as our prepayments on SFR loans in 2023. Moving to the portfolio. Our portfolio is comprised of 87 investments with a total outstanding balance of $1.6 billion. Our investments are allocated across the following sectors: 47.2% multifamily, 46% single-family, 5.2% life sciences and 1.5% storage. Our portfolio is allocated across the following investment categories: 41.4% senior loans, 30.8% CMBS B-Pieces, 12.5% preferred equity investments, 8.5% mezzanine loans, 3.5% IO strips, and 3.3% MBS and MSCR notes. The assets collateralizing our investments are allocated geographically as follows: 20 in Georgia, 17% Florida, 15% Texas, 7% California, 4% Maryland, 5% Minnesota, and 3% North Carolina with 29% across states with less than 2.5% exposure, all this reflecting our heavy preference for Sun Belt investments. The collateral in our portfolio is 89.9% stabilized with a 68.8% loan-to-value and a weighted average DSCR of 1.72x. Moving to the balance sheet. We had $1.3 billion of debt outstanding. Of this, $304 million or 24% is short-term debt. Our weighted average cost of debt is 4.23% and has a weighted average maturity of 3.1 years. Our debt is collateralized by $1.7 billion collateral with a weighted average maturity of 5.6 years. Our debt-to-equity ratio is 2.9x. A couple of other notes. In December, we launched a continuous offering of Series B 9% preferred equity. To date, we've -- through February, we raised $30 million of gross proceeds, which will be used to make accretive investments with low to mid-double-digit yields. In Q1 of '24, we received a prepayment on an SFR senior loan of $509 million of principal, of which $466 million was used to repay the debt associated with the loan. We also received a prepayment penalty of $9 million. The net proceeds of $52 million will be redeployed into accretive investments with much higher yields than the repaid senior loan. Moving to guidance before I turn it over to the rest of the team. Earnings available for distribution for the first quarter '24 is negative $0.45 per diluted share at the midpoint with a range of negative $0.50 in the low end and negative $0.40 on the high end. Earnings available for distribution will be negative for the quarter as a result of the $25 million reversal, the unamortized premium associated with the previously mentioned senior SFR loan that was prepaid in January. Cash available for distributions, $0.58 per diluted share at the midpoint with a range of $0.53 on the low end and $0.63 on the high end. So with that, let me turn it over to Paul.
Thanks, Brian. The results from the fourth quarter showcase our overall strong performance across all of our investments and asset categories, especially within our CMBS B-Piece portfolio. Our strategy remains centered on investment areas where expertise in owning and operating commercial real estate gives us a unique edge. This dual role as both owner and lender in the commercial real estate market enables us to effectively utilize information, allowing us to underwrite and recognize value throughout the capital stack with our aim at achieving superior risk-adjusted returns that exceed the average. Our investment approach remains centered on credit investments and stable and near-stabilized assets, emphasizing cautious underwriting, low leverage and relative debt basis, along with the lending to healthy sponsors to deliver steady and reliable value to our shareholders. In the fourth quarter, despite challenging commercial real estate conditions, our loan portfolio maintained steady performance, consisting of 87 individual assets with approximately $1.6 billion in total outstanding principal. The portfolio is geographically diverse with the bias towards the Sun Belt markets. Texas, Georgia and Florida continue to be our largest portion of our portfolio at approximately 52% as of year-end, though our Atlanta, Georgia exposure has significantly decreased by more than 10% as our largest SFR whole loan was repaid in full as of Q1 of this year. From the beginning of the fourth quarter through today, the company has been very active in underwriting and deploying capital. We executed on making both follow-on at new investments of $31.8 million of preferred equity investments with an all-in yield of 11.5% in both our SFR and life science verticals. We also completed the purchase on a new issue 5-year fixed Freddie Mac B-Piece opportunity with extremely attractive specs. The overall securitization has a 59% LTV, a 1.34 DSCR and a diverse geographical footprint. The B-Piece will pay an all-in unlevered fixed rate of 9.75% with modest leverage. We expect to generate a mid-teen levered return on a very desirable collateral pool. The company has also purchased new issue SFR ABS paper in the gross amount of approximately $44 billion and prudently levered to achieve low to mid-double-digit returns on a low LTV, high cash flowing stabilized SFR property pool. Lastly, and Matt McGraner will touch more on this exciting investment during his prepared remarks, the company closed on a $218 million drawable first mortgage life science loan this past January. This specific loan carries an attractive 27% detachment point on current as its appraisal valuation and provides SOFR plus 900 pricing. On the disposition loan repayment side, as mentioned, we received approximately $500 million gross of financing and around $60 million in net of financing and the portfolio's SFR -- and the portfolio's largest SFR loan was repaid in full and a few small SFR loans, generating attractive overall IRR for investors. At the end of the quarter, we maintained a cautious approach to our repo financing with leverage standing at approximately 63% loan-to-value. We consistently engage in communication with our repo lending partners, discussing the market conditions and status of our finance CMBS portfolio. In summary, we continue to find attractive investment opportunities throughout our target markets and asset classes. We will continue to evaluate these opportunities with the goal of delivering value to our shareholders. we maintain a strong belief in the resilience of the residential sector, especially in the current interest rate environment. We continue -- we consider investments in the multifamily and single-family verticals to be safe as demonstrated by the historical performance and are extremely excited about our life science CDMO investment pipeline. To finalize our prepared remarks before we turn it over for questions, I'd like to turn it over to Matt McGraner.
Thank you, Paul. As he just mentioned, we are pleased with the solid Q4 and full year 2023 results, especially on a relative basis. Our portfolio continues to perform very well. And despite short-term supply challenges in multifamily, underlying performance in multi, SFR, storage and life sciences remain relatively stable. As we announced last quarter and as Brian mentioned, we have successfully launched an NREF Series B preferred and to date have raised approximately $30 million over the past couple of months. At this current run rate, paired with the pipeline investments that Paul just mentioned, we expect to increase cash available for distribution by 15% to 20% over the next 12 months. The life science loan originated in January, as Paul mentioned, will alone provide $200 million of fundings over the next 12 months. We expect to fund -- we expect to match fund draws on this investment with proceeds from our Series B rates providing maximum accretion to shareholders. In addition, the large SFR loan payoff will create additional capital to deploy into our $300 million-plus investment pipeline, but it also delevers us by a full turn and now sit below 2x levered, the lowest of any commercial mortgage REIT. This delevering creates additional optionality in terms of sources of capital to the extent we wanted to releverage some of the balance sheet and to fund opportunistic investments. To close, we're excited about these opportunities in the coming quarters and pleased with the company's continued stability and the opportunity to go on offense in this environment. As always, I want to thank the team for their hard work. Now I'd like to turn the call over to the operator for questions.
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Crispin Love with Piper Sandler.
First, can you talk about some of the opportunities that you've already begun to see or expect to see over the next several quarters in bridge multifamily? Have you started offering prefer mezz to some borrowers in that space? And just how is that progressive -- or progressing? Are borrowers seeking you out? Are you working with other lenders to help? And do you expect this to be a key way for borrowers to get agency takeouts down the road?
Yes. Chris, it's Matt. Great question. We have started seeing both portfolio deals and individual one-off deals seeking for cash in refinancing dollars. Both on the agency and on the CRE CLO side, borrowers are seeking money to fund replacement caps. They're seemingly okay with being diluted, seemingly okay with the terms we're providing in terms of risk mitigation and mezz and liens and the ability to take over the asset. They're being realistic as well on cap rates. So we're getting a better debt yield than we otherwise normally would. We have $300 million of investment pipeline. I would consider this to be an additional $100 million to $150 million opportunity for us this year, and they're beginning to come more fast and furious than they were in the fourth quarter.
Okay. And just the strategy of operating pref or managing the borrowers, I found it very interesting. But what do you view as kind of the key risk here as the borrowers are likely stressed with high LTVs and low DSCR? So I'm curious, what kind of LTVs are coming in at? And just if there's any risk that you think in the strategy?
Yes. The -- I mean we're going to make sure that we can prime enough equity such that we can own the asset at an in-place cap rate that we think we can either sell the asset or refi into agency. Now candidly, some of those are few and far between, and we haven't hit on one yet. But we are underwriting. We will target to be no more than probably 80% of the stack on as-is value today. The structure of the investment because of the cash flows, certainly in 2024 given the supply, will be challenged. We'll probably carry a little bit of a lower current pay. But all in, pricing on that can still reach mid-teens. So we're selective. Again, we haven't necessarily hit on one yet. But we are seeing opportunities come in the door on a daily basis from sponsors, from the large commercial real estate services companies, investment banks, et cetera. So we do expect to be active this year in that strategy.
Great. That all makes sense, Matt. And then just one last question for me just on the accelerated amortization of the premium with the prepayment on the senior loan you mentioned in the first quarter, which I think you expect to drive the negative EAD in the quarter. Can you give any more detail there? What drove the prepayment on that SFR loan? Is there -- and is there anything out of the ordinary with that loan or borrower specifically?
No, I wouldn't say so. I mean they've been reaching out to us for several years to restructure it. And I think they just got to a point now where they found other financing or had equity capital and were willing to prepay it. But I don't think there's anything knowing that the company that had the loan that there's any issues with that.
I think I'd add to that, I think that it's a sign of a healthy ABS market in SFR, right? The sponsors are well-heeled sponsor, very active, very well known in the ABS space. And just it's -- while we're sad to see it go, it provides us with new capital. And I think it's a healthy sign for liquidity and commercial real estate in general.
Your next question is from the line of Stephen Laws with Raymond James.
Congrats on a nice close to the year. Looking forward to your results. I want to make sure I get -- yes. I want to make sure I understand kind of the CAD as you move through the year. Matt, I think you mentioned in your comments the opportunity for a brief 15% to 20% growth in the next 12 months. As you think about moving through the year, does Q1 benefit from the $9 million repayment penalty and then you'll see a trough in Q2 as kind of you get a return capital fully redeployed? How do we think about the CAD migration through this year?
Yes. It's a good question. The Series B, the way we look at that is with our construction loan for -- in the life science and the pipeline that Paul just mentioned, it's about $0.04 to $0.05 -- about $0.05 per $25 million of Series B raise that's accretive to CAD. So as we move through the year, that's where I'm picking up that 15% to 20%. And perhaps it could be more accretion with -- your point, again, is well taken. On the payoff, you will see a little bit enhanced in the first quarter. And then our job is to redeploy that in the second quarter and make sure that we're fully funded. But again, I'm comfortable with the ability to be -- still being able to grow cash available for distribution while delevering a full turn.
Appreciate those comments. And when you think about the new investment pipeline and redeploying that capital, given the large discount to book, how do you think about any stock repurchases? I know there's some limits there just given the liquidity. But can you talk about how you think about the returns you'd have to see in stock repurchases versus new investments, where should you deploy that?
Yes. We have an obligation to fund another $175 million, $200 million of commitments. To the extent that we are comfortable managing cash and funding those investments and getting other repayments and we have excess cash, it's an absolute certainty that we'll look to buy back stock at these levels. We're going to, again, kind of first and foremost, fund what we have to fund and then with the excess capital. And to the extent that our Series B preferred raise ramps, which we expect it to, I like our chances to be in a position to buy back stock if we continue to trade at a discount.
Your next question is from the line of Jade Rahmani with KBW.
On the SFR repayment, wasn't there supposed to be a 20% prepayment penalty?
Jade, it's Paul. Yes, so it -- of course, it just matters based on yield maintenance calculations. So when rates were low back 1.5 years ago, and we discussed that, the prepayment penalty was a lot higher. Now that rates have traded back up to that 5% land, the prepayment penalty was a lot less than what it was back when the rate market was a lot lower.
So there's going to be a $9 million prepayment penalty, correct?
That's correct.
And that's factored into the earnings, but there's more than an offset to reverse the unamortized premium?
That's correct.
Okay. Do you know what pro forma book value should be for the reversal of the unamortized premium?
Yes. It's around -- so the reversal of the unamortized premium, it's about a little less than $1 of book value.
So we should expect book value to decline by $1?
In a vacuum, if that was the only variable, yes. Of course, there could be mark-to-market movements, et cetera, on the CMBS book.
Okay. Do you know to date where the mark-to-market is on CMBS?
It's flat to relatively up a little bit. It's not going gangbusters by any means, but it's -- some bonds have been doing well from a mark-to-market basis. But overall, up a little bit through January. So we'll get marks in February coming out, and then, of course, the March and see how that works.
Being active, Jade, in the CMBS and ABS markets in the first couple of months of the year, we've seen spreads come in quite a bit as the indices rise and as more liquidity returns. So as we sit here today, we feel like the marks will be strong.
Okay. So that will hopefully be a partial offset to the book value impact?
Yes. I mean, again, too, we -- like in terms of the trade-offs, we did delever by $500 million, which is good.
I was going through Howard Hughes' transcript, and their comments about the construction market -- construction loan market really caught my attention. I mean they basically said they've never seen a market like this, where even getting a multifamily loan is challenging. The banks are being told to not do office. It's totally red lined and to pull back everywhere else. So how do you all feel about that? And on the life science, it sounds like it is a construction loan based on the magnitude of future fundings and the attachment point being so low. That's a pro forma LTC estimate. So is construction an area you're looking to get more active in?
Yes, I think so. And I'd say 2 things. One is the $220 million construction loan is on a 27-acre site in Cambridge, where the sponsors of well-heeled repeat sponsor of ours and has roughly $420 million in equity into the project. This opportunity was borne out of banks pulling back, trying to syndicate the senior mortgage. We were, in fact, going to do the mezz on this loan. And so when the banks pulled back, we just stepped in and did the senior mortgage at basically the same rate, lower detachment point, creating a pretty attractive risk-return profile. The project was also already funded in terms of equity. 2 of the 3 buildings were built. The third is about to top out. So from a risk-reward, this one was a good one. Our storage platform has, through the past decade through our storage team led by John Good, had a construction development pipeline, whereby they would fund construction loans to developers of self-storage and take a profits participation interest. I would expect us to get more active in that space as well as the multifamily space as well because as you mentioned, this bodes well for multifamily and really all property types performance in '25 and '26. But over the past 9 to 18 months, you -- if you're a developer, you're hurting. You can't find access to capital. So it is a good time, it is on our radar, and we've already been doing it. So your [ buddy ] has good news.
On the life science, is there a tenant already signed up? Because I know there's quite a lot of supply expected to hit this year and next year.
Yes. That's a rumor. A lot of the supply hitting has been pushed out to '27 and '28. I think half of what was planned to deliver over the next 12 months won't deliver. So if you dig into the numbers, and we're happy to share those with you, I think the supply in life sciences is fairly overstated. This particular project is one of the last to be developed in Cambridge before moratorium hits. And the location, the size, the ability to take full blocks of 395,000 square feet total, we expect to be very attractive. And again, it opens -- it COs in 2025. It's not like this is a far out project. So we expect leasing velocity to do very well here. But as of today, there is no tenant. But our -- I would just add one thing, our basis is land value.
Okay. And then on multifamily, lots of noise, lots of -- their CLO reports showing delinquencies. There's a lot of scrutiny on some of your peers -- mortgage REIT peers. But at the same time, the GSEs are showing pretty low delinquencies in their stabilized servicing portfolios that others like Walker & Dunlop manage. So can you just give us a sense since you're so active even on the equity side of what's going on, on the ground with multifamily, some of the supply challenges and yet what looks like pretty decent credit performance?
Yes, you bet. I think you got to bifurcate agency versus non-agency. And just, I guess, generally in multifamily right now, Q2 -- Q1, Q2, Q3 is the eye of the storm, supply storm, so to speak. And then supply wanes throughout '24 and into '25, it gets -- the dynamic really flips in the landlord's favor. On the ground, the CRE CLO loans, obviously, probably lower-quality collateral are hitting air pockets. Their cash flows starved, their -- and there are almost zombie deals to the extent that there is no cash flow to fund operations or rehabs or business plans that were conducted or created a couple of years ago. So those deals are challenged. And I'm not going to say you can't work through it. Multifamily is the easiest to work through, but those are where you're seeing the most weakness. The agency portfolios, including our own, have held up a lot better. And that makes sense, right? There are particularly better sponsors, may be well located, go through a bunch of different layers of underwriting and then more diversified. And so I think those deals will continue to be fine and be able to be refinanced, especially as we get through the next 3 or 4 quarters, which I think things -- once we -- once the Fed decides to actually pivot, that will ease some pressure on the system, and then getting through the supply will also help. So a little bit of a rough time in the next 2 or 3 quarters, but I do think there's light at the end of the tunnel.
This concludes the Q&A session of today's call. I will now turn the call back to the management team for closing remarks.
Yes. Appreciate everybody's time. Great questions today. We look forward to speaking again soon. Thank you.
This concludes the NexPoint Real Estate Finance Fourth Quarter 2023 Conference Call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.