Safe Bulkers Inc
NYSE:SB
Earnings Call Analysis
Q4-2023 Analysis
Safe Bulkers Inc
The latest earnings call reveals the shifting landscapes of global commodities and geopolitics that affect the shipping industry. Presenters highlighted the intensified geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East and Ukraine, which have sparked concerns in shipping routes and safety. However, despite these challenges, the resilience of the U.S. economy, the significant fiscal support in China, and robust domestic demand in India portray a silver lining. With the IMF raising its 2024 global GDP growth forecast to 3.1% and inflation rates projected to fall more comprehensively than in previous forecasts, to 5.8% for 2024, there is a sense of cautious optimism. Specifically, China's GDP growth remains stable at a projected 4.6%, notwithstanding headwinds such as high domestic debt and an aging population, while India's GDP is expected to surge by 6.5%.
The market view puts a lens on the pervasive industry-wide volatility driven by restrictive monetary policies and growing geoeconomic fragmentation. Yet amid this upheaval, signs of disinflation and forecasts of stable growth bring a measure of predictability for the upcoming two years.
The company is distinguishing itself through several key fundamentals: a significantly management-owned structure, prudential leverage, robust liquidity and contracted revenues, and the quality and competitiveness of its fleet. It's well-positioned to benefit from stricter environmental regulations, emphasizing a fleet focused on environmental competitiveness as part of a broader ESG strategy. Additionally, the company is striking a balance between offering shareholder dividends and investing in fleet expansion.
Financial results for the fourth quarter of 2023 show a mixed bag: adjusted EBITDA stood at $50.7 million, a dip from $56 million in the same period of 2022. Adjusted earnings per share also dropped from $0.29 to $0.25, despite a smaller weighted average number of shares outstanding. The fleet operated at a lower average time charter equivalent (TCE) of $18,321 compared to $21,078 in 2022, although the average number of vessels increased slightly. The net income for Q4 2023 was $27.6 million, compared to $34.9 million in the previous year, reflecting a tightened but resilient performance amidst economic challenges.
Discussions on commodity trends unveiled that Chinese coal imports reached record highs in 2023, suggesting that coal remains a vital resource for China. While environmental concerns might eventually reduce coal dependency, such a shift is not expected for at least another 5 to 10 years. The executives wrapped up the call by expressing their gratitude for the attendance and shared the anticipation of discussing the next quarter's financial results in June, hinting at continuous transparency and engagement with stakeholders.
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Thank you for standing by, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Safe Bulkers conference call on the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2023, financial results. We have with us Mr. Polys Hajioannou, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Dr. Loukas Barmparis, President; and Mr. Konstantinos Adamopoulos, Chief Financial Officer of the company. [Operator Instructions] Following this conference call, if you need any further information on the conference call or on the presentation, please contact Capital Link at 212-661-7566. I must advise you that this conference is being recorded today, February 13, 2024. The archived webcast of the conference call will soon be made available on the Safe Bulkers website, www.safebulkers.com. Many of the remarks today contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results may differ materially from the results projected from those forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that can cause the actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2023, earnings release, which is available on the Safe Bulkers website, again, www.safebulkers.com. I would now like to turn the conference call to one of your speakers today, President, Dr. Loukas Barmparis. Please go ahead, sir.
Good morning. I'm Loukas Barmparis, President of Safe Bulkers. Welcome to our conference call and webcast to discuss the financial results for the fourth quarter of 2023. During the last quarter of the year, we operated in an improved charter market environment compared to the previous quarter. The company continues to maintain a strong capital structure while implementing each strategy of gradual freight renewal that leads to decreasing fleet average age. Our ongoing efforts to upgrade our existing vessels, coupled with our fleet renewal will enable us to remain competitive while reducing our carbon footprint. Yesterday, just before the issuance of our earnings press release, we announced the sale of our oldest vessel MV Maritsa. This gives me the opportunity to focus on our investment strategy, which takes into account our existing ESG policy and prepares our company for the new most recent regulatory environment in relation to carbon emissions. In Slide 3, we present the environment -- the environmental regulations time line. We have been trying to be ahead of the market. For example, by placing Phase 3 orders when only Phase 2 regulations kicked in and sell older vessels and more recently by placing orders for dual-fuel vessels. You see on Slide 4, the challenge that the drybulk shipping industry faces as we move with steady steps toward 2030. Advanced Phase 3 energy efficiency vessels are only a few, creating operational and commercial advantage for the early movers. We moved too early, and in Slide 5, given our recent deliveries, we have maintained a very competitive average age, and we intend to do the same in the years to come with the remaining order book. All our actions should build up a green fleet advantage as presented in the top right graph of Slide 6. Our fleet is comprised of eco vessels built after 2013, conventional vessels, which have been environmentally upgraded and Phase 3 newbuilds, which now account for 20% of our fleet. Only 6 of our 46 vessels in our fleet vessel are scheduled to be upgraded. On the bottom graph, a synopsis of our fleet renewal is presented with 12 vessels sold in the last few years, having average age of 15 years old and 16 vessels acquired, 9 of which newbuilds and 7 secondhand with lower average age of 9 years old. Let's now focus on the market. In Slide 7, there has been significant volatility in the Cape market. It's worth noting that all 8 of our Capes are period chartered with an average remaining charter duration of about 2 years, at an average daily rate of about [ $23,600 ] with the market currently at about [ $20,500 ]. On the Panamax side, the charter market remained stable. The expectation as reflected by the [ stable ] market is optimistic. The interesting point here in Slide 8 is that the supply side is relatively weak, creating upside potential after the Chinese New Year holidays. The total drybulk order book stands at single-digits. We remain cautiously optimistic about the medium-term prospects of the trade market in the coming years due to this healthy order book. About 25% of the medium-sized fleet is older than 15 years as the effect of fleet age and environmental regulations are expected to accelerate scrapping. Japanese built vessels have more efficient design. And please note that 82% of our fleet is Japanese built versus 40% of the global fleet, which means that our fleet can compete better in the forthcoming environmental-based charter market. We are one of the very few drybulk companies with Phase 3 order book ahead of our years, timely placed at lower than the present market values, signifying our intention to compete on the basis of operational and environmental performance. Moving to Slide 9. We present the development of the CRB commodity index, reflecting the basic commodity -- commodity's futures prices which represent the leading indicators for shipping, including energy, agriculture, precious metals and industrial metals. We continue to witness the rise of intensification of geopolitical tensions, noting the Middle East region, Red Sea and Ukraine. We witnessed a greater-than-expected resilience in U.S. in several large emerging markets and developing economies as well as the significant fiscal support in China. Inflation falling faster than experienced in most regions is in the midst of unwinding supply side issues and restrictive monetary policies. The January forecast of IMF raised margin in the projected global GDP growth for 2024 to 3.1% as global inflation projection for 2024 stands at 5.8% lower than the previous forecast. According to BIMCO the forecasted global drybulk demand growth stands at 1% increase for 2024. Yet the battle against inflation is not clearly won with inflation expectations well anchored in major economies. In China, the IMF general projection of GDP growth for 2024 stood at 4.6%. China recovery seems stable, even after taking into account the fiscal support, even though the Chinese inflation is near zero, due to the persistent domestic difficulties such as the elevated debt, weakness in corporate sector, structural factors such as aging, which weigh on growth. On the other hand, India's growth is set to remain resilient despite the global challenges underpinned by a robust domestic demand, strong public infrastructure investments and strengthening financial sector as reflected in IMF's January projection for a 6.5% increase in GDP for 2024. Concluding our market view on Slide 10. There has been an increased industry-wide volatility driven by tight monetary policies and rising geoeconomic fragmentation. There are signs of disinflation and forecast of stable growth for the next 2 years. Demand for technological efficiency creates opportunities for those willing to invest as Safe Bulkers has done. It is evident that the ESG adherence becomes increasingly important for the years to come. Environmentally efficient fleets may lead to a 2-tier market with differential in earning capability. We believe that the combined effect of the aging of the fleet, the low order book, lower sailing speeds and the new regulations and the GHG targets will favor fleets comprising of efficient vessels tightening the market. I will conclude on Slide 11, where we present certain of our key characteristics which differentiates us from our peers. The key fundamentals are our strong alignment of interest with a significant percentage of management ownership, the comfortable leverage, the ample liquidity and contracted revenues, our track record and, of course, the quality and competitiveness of our fleet. Our operating model is positioned to capitalize on the new more stringent environmental regulations with assets focused on environmental competitiveness and ESG strategy. At the same time, we are committed to reward shareholders with meaningful dividends while actively building our future competitiveness with a substantial fleet expansion. Our Chief Financial Officer, Konstantinos Adamopoulos will continue the presentation. Konstantinos, the floor is yours.
Thank you, Loukas, and good morning to all. As a general note, during the fourth quarter of 2023, we operated in a weaker charter market environment compared to the same period in 2022, with decreased revenues due to lower charter hires, decreased earnings from scrubber-fitted vessels, decreased operating expenses and higher interest expenses due to higher interest rates. Let's focus now on our liquidity and cash flows and our capital structure, which is presented in Slide 12. We are maintaining a comfortable leverage of around 37%. Our debt of $516 million remains comparable to our fleet scrap value of $341 million, although our fleet is only 10 years old. Our weighted average interest rate stood at 6.31% for our consolidated debt and this is inclusive of the applicable low margin with a portion of EUR 100 million being fixed at a coupon of 2.95% with an unsecured 5-year bond. We have paid $85 million for our capital expenditure requirements in relation to our existing order book. The remaining CapEx were $223 million. Our liquidity and capital resources stand strong at approximately $312 million which together with a contracted revenue of about $270 million provides flexibility to our management and capital allocation. Furthermore, we have additional borrowing capacity in relation to 8 existing unencumbered vessels and 6 -- and 7 newbuilds upon delivery. Moving on to Slide 13 with our quarterly financial highlights for the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the same period of 2022. Our adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2023 stood up at $50.7 million compared to $56 million for the same period in 2022. Our adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter of 2023 was $0.25, this was calculated on a weighted average number of 111.6 million shares compared to $0.29 during the same period in 2022, and that was calculated on a weighted average number of 118. 9 million shares. We'll present Slide 14, our quarterly operational highlights for the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the same period of 2022. During the fourth quarter of 2023, we operated on average 45.93 vessels, earning an average time charter equivalent of $18,321 compared to 44 vessels at an average TCE of $21,078 during the same period in 2022. Our net income for the fourth quarter of '23 was $27.6 million compared to net income of $34.9 million during the same period in 2022. In conclusion, on Slide 16, we present our recent newbuild deliveries. Based on our financial performance, the company's Board of Directors declared a $0.05 dividend per common share. We would like to emphasize that the company is maintaining a healthy cash position, the revolving credit facilities and undrawn borrowing capacity. Altogether, combined liquidity and capital resources north of $300 million. Furthermore, we have contracted revenue from our non-cancellable spot and period time charter contracts of more than $240 million. And this is net of commissions and before any scrap revenue and additional borrowing capacity in relation to 8 unencumbered existing ships and 7 newbuilds upon the delivery. We believe our strong liquidity and our comfortable leverage will enable us to expand the fleet while still rewarding our shareholders. Thank you. We are now ready to accept questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Omar Nokta with Jefferies.
Hey, guys, good afternoon. Just had a couple of questions, maybe just on the last point you made right before the Q&A session. Just wanted to ask about uses of free cash in this market environment. Clearly, 4Q was a stronger period than we anticipated or at least a lot of us anticipated, 1Q is off to a solid start. There's a lot of disruption globally. And so just in general, as you think about things, how are you thinking about the uses of cash at this point? Or at least the main use of cash? Is it to lower debt at this point? Or do you still see opportunities for further expansion beyond the current scope?
Good morning to you. And look, the situation depends on how the market develops. At the moment, we see the market is turning quite positive for the next year or so and even more in 2025 as we see also American economy doing very well. So the use of cash will be split for new buildings with fleet renewal, we don't exclude the sale of older ships to be replaced by more modern ships. So it's not only the new builds that they are coming. There will be more modern ships added in the fleet, will be some share buyback, I know we didn't do in the last quarter. But we didn't have the -- we didn't have enough evidence how the market would perform. Right now, we have enough evidence that the market is performing. And we will reduce also our leverage. We don't want to increase the leverage from the current percentages as the new ships are coming in. So we want to keep it around the current levels. So 1/3, 37%, 38%. So we will use cash for all these things. Of course, everything depends on how the market will perform. At the moment, the signs are positive. And you know all the geopolitical situations and Panama Canal has reduced [ drafts ] and no Kamsarmax or Post-Panamax are passing now through the canal, coupled with the problem of the Red Sea. And I need to say here that Safe Bulkers was one of the first companies that declared to its charterers after the first hits of the merchant vessels in beginning December, that we will stop going through the Red Sea, simply because we don't believe that our seamen are -- who are key workers and everybody recognized seamen as key workers, are to be used for transporting through military areas. So like we don't trade in the Black Sea for the last 2 years, we decided not to trade in the Red Sea for the foreseeable future. And this, I want to say that it's very well received by all the crew members of our ships. We control the spot ships we have in the spot markets, it's our decision. But also, I'm pleased to say that the majority of our charterers accepted immediately this condition. So it's very important for this company to be doing business with the A-rated charterers who share let's say, the responsibility against the seamen to avoid at least for the next 2, 3 months until things clear out in the Red Sea. It's not good to participate in conferences, and we say that seamen key workers and like we did during COVID. And nobody was accepting our seamen to get off either in Singapore or in China or in any other country in the world. We had to deviate ships to Manila at the time to disembark our seamen. Charterers were not paying deviation cost or calling costs, very expensive to take the ships to Manila. And the only country in the world that allowed safe corridors for seamen to get disembarked at that time in the first half of 2020 was Cyprus, a small country. I'm not saying this because I come from Cyprus, because we are located -- we have our headquarter in Cyprus, but I have to admit that it was the only country that allowed change of crews through a safe corridor because it's a small country, but government is pro-business and can take fair decisions very quickly. So the same now applies for the Red Sea until this situation is sorted out. Charterers should not be pressing ship owners to send the seamen through the Red Sea -- which -- the seamen, they are not there to watch if the drones are flying over the ship or switch off the lights of the vessels passing through the area. Let's sort it out with the navies as soon as possible, this situation. So we have safe passage again through the Red Sea.
Thank you, Polys. Very, very good context on everything as you kind of related things a bit towards the COVID situation with the crew changes. I guess in this market, there's been, I guess, 2 ways where -- I mean, you're obviously much closer to it than we are, but there's clearly a spot contract and then there's the vessels on time charter. Is there a deviation in terms of how charters are looking at transiting to the Red Sea, at least from your lens and your ships? Are you still having vessels that are in your control operationally that are on contract or that are on time charter, are those ships still, in some cases, being forced to go to the Red Sea by your customer?
Yes. On all our time charter ships, I'm proud to say that our charterers are big names. They all cooperated despite there was some costs involved. They cooperated. We let them know early that we will not accept to go through a military area or a war zone and we even had a charterer on a route from the Continental to the Paris, that halfway through the Mediterranean turned the ship around and went via the Cape Town. I'm proud to say that with all these people, we reward them with more business and more ships when we time charter for 1-year charters, we say from the start, we don't cross the Red Sea, the charterers are happy to accept and they find the optional routes. So we should pay respect to the people who do the job, and the people are -- they have families and they are the seamen. They are not military personnel. And even if we use armed guards on board our ships, the arm guards are good against pirates. They are not good against drones and rockets, they can do nothing. So it's a very important matter. And of course, I believe, it will not take long to be solved. It will not be a matter of 1 year, more like 2 or 3 months. And the world navies are in the area. They are taking care of matters. And when the corridor is safe, we will start passing again, hopefully, in the next 2 or 3 months.
Yes, definitely. Okay. That makes sense. And then maybe just a final one for me, and it's just more of a follow-up to make sure I understood correctly. So the -- in terms of the share buyback that you haven't yet put to work, clearly, it was at a time of transition and uncertainty. But given how things are at this point, you have the conviction, at least with respect to the dry bulk market, that now is the time to buy stock.
Look, yes, we believe it is time because now we have clear signs that the market is pushing up, yes.
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Climent Molins with Value Investor's Edge.
You've provided ample commentary on your fleet renewal approach. But I was wondering, could you provide some insight on the reasoning for focusing on ordering midsized vessels instead of Capesizes? Is it because of pricing or because you have a relatively more positive view on Kamsarmax?
What did you say? Because the line was not good, why we invest in midsized vessels?
Yes, instead of Capesizes.
Yes. Yes. We're not a Capesize trade. They're always -- we were feeling over the year a little bit uncomfortable with the type of vessel that relies on one commodity, namely iron ore and little bit of coal. We wanted to be more versatile and be able to trade on more routes. And iron ore is pro -- let's say, China -- depending on the Chinese economy. Of course, now we are -- I believe we are in the right phase also for Capesize opportunities. Of course, the competition there is huge. The order book is very low. I'm very positive for Capesize as well. But we are little bit afraid that maybe the high capital cost of ordering a Capesize in a good shipyard like Japanese shipyards is more than $70 million. You make all the calculation of interest rate at 6%. And you will understand that is a big risk for a company like ours to step up any major investment in that sector. We did that in 2021, we bought 4 Capesize bulk carriers, which are earning handsome rates for us now in the mid-20s for 3 years or 2 years or things like that. We fitted scrubbers on them that they are adding a good $1.5 million per vessel per year. So we did our small investment there. Now I don't believe we'll get opportunity in the next 6 months. We will try to inspect a couple of ships, but I'm hearing interest from 15, 20 buyers on every ship. I don't think we will be the winners of any -- of those bids but we're happy that we have invested in -- at the right time, starting in 2020 in the Kamsarmax newbuilds. Japanese Kamsarmax Phase 3 newbuilds and prices, we start investing was around $28 million. Today, the same ships are worth over $40 million to order from those yards. So we're happy we have done -- we continued in the business we know. We ordered total of 16 units, and we are very well placed since we have delivered 9 of those already in a good market and 7 more are coming, including 2 methanol ships. So we're in a good position overall, let's say. We're happy with our moves so far.
I also wanted to ask a bit about the 2024 outlook for coal. China recently reinstated the tariffs, and I was wondering whether you expect this to have an impact on the overall market.
Could you repeat the question because there are sudden interruptions in the line.
Yes. The question is about China's tariffs on coal, which were recently reinstituted and whether you expect that to have an impact on the overall market?
Yes. Chinese coal imports were at the highest in the last -- in 2023. It's a vital commodity for the Chinese. We know that at a certain point, they will consider the environmental consequences and they will step back. But it's not -- the Chinese, I think, consume around 4 billion tonnes of coal a year. So the imported quantity of around 10% of that amount is not that big. And I don't think they will deescalate from coal in the next, let's say, 5 to 10 years. Later on, of course, we may see reduction of coal into China, and we will see increase in coal into other areas like India, Malaysia, Vietnam, South East Asia countries. So I think coal will always be there. And I think if there is a cleaner coal from other areas or technologies to make it more friendly to the environment. But I don't think coal will be reducing a lot in the years to come.
Congratulations for the quarter.
Thank you. We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. Therefore, I'll turn the call back over to Mr. Polys Hajioannou for closing remarks.
So thank you very much for attending our presentation and we are looking forward to discussion again in June on the financial results of our next quarter. Thank you all and have a nice day.
And this concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.