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Hello, and welcome to First Quarter '24 Presentation of Protector's Results. As always, a small stop on the statements we have. And this morning, we, as always, talked to the employees to have the presentation of the results, and best-in-class decision-making has been a focus over time. And I just wanted to share an inspiration we've had from literature because obviously, we think that we can develop and understand some things ourselves, but to take some inspiration from the outside is good. So at least all leaders have read Think Again by Adam Grant. And in a changing environment to understand that the company doesn't change, but it is changed by everyone and all the small decisions made all the time is good to remember and be aware of, and at the same time, being more open in for change, both as individuals, between individuals and as teams. So when we think that we know the right way, let's think again and challenge ourselves, that's something we practice at the moment. So that was just a small stop here on the cultural side.When it comes to the results in total, the combined ratio is basically what it says. So it's not affected by a lot of volatility in quarter 1. The growth has some volatility, and I'll come back to that. But we also then give some information about April 1, which is the biggest date in the U.K. public sector. There is a high-profile claim in Copenhagen in a very old building. So it's a tragic fire with damage to a very beautiful building, where we have some covers. And the reason why we bring it up here is not because of the effect on our financial results because they are limited, both gross and net. There is a very small probability that it could go into our reinsurance layers and a higher probability that it will be below our net retention. But it's important to say something about it because it is a high-profile claim. The covers we have are on the content, and there are arts in those contents, which is not really something that we write or know how to write as insurance, but it is taken in consciously knowing that there is art there and as a part of a bigger portfolio. But we have said no to the property insurance, which is the larger part of the claim.And then France, we announced after the full year '23 that we are applying for a branch in France. And the update is very simple. We have not found any red flags and the project is progressing according to or ahead of plan. So there is a good probability that there will be some kind of clients in our books in 2025. But we're not in a rush.And then to the most important part of the insurance side, the profitability and the claims results. U.K., as you can see, is very strong as it was in 2023. It is driven mostly on the positive side from the property book. And as you know, we have written a lot of property, new property business in 2023. So it's good to see that even if you adjust that number slightly upwards to normalize for large losses, there are not a lot of large losses in the U.K. in the quarter. It is still very strong on the property side, which is then influenced by a lot of new volume.On the other countries, if you do the adjustments of large losses and runoffs, so the normalization of the loss ratios, both Sweden, which now includes Finland here and Denmark are slightly better than what you see compared to quarter 1 '23, whereas Norway is slightly worse. And I'll get back to some of the reasons.We have a motor product, which we have communicated previously that has had poor profitability in '23, and it continues in the first quarter of '24. But it is important for us to say that we have not changed our risk appetite. So we're behind target there. Some of the actions that we already have implemented, they have a lagged effect and inflation continues. And in the inflation figure, there are a lot of factors. So I can give some examples, and it's not an exhaustive list. But one part of it is that both our competitors and us, when we quote business now, we look at claims history that includes COVID. So you need to adjust for a period of time where claims frequencies were lower due to lower activity. So that's an uncertainty, right? So that can be done in a different way, and you can miss on that estimation. And then you have the normal inflation on parts and labor, repair costs, which has increased, but it's at least in all countries, except for Norway, flattening out or even reducing. And then you have elements of the change in the car fleets going from fossil fuels to electric and also technology in the different parts that are damaged.In addition, you will have some volatility on a quarterly basis. So obviously, the weather will affect first quarter in at least Scandinavian countries. So there is some of that as well. And all of that is what we would call claims inflation and claims volatility. And we are not concerned. So we believe that we understand what's going on. We have implemented measures in order to improve it, and we will continue to implement measures to improve the motor. And our risk appetite has not changed. We are more competent on what's going on on the motor side now than what we were before all these inflation elements. So that's, I think, a positive consequence of having some issues that you dive further into it and understand it better for the future.The runoff situation is very simple this quarter. It's not a systematic runoff situation on any product. It is about some large losses from previous years, especially on the motor product. So it also affects. And of the large losses in the quarter, which is about on a normalized level, we've said 7% before. We don't have the line of 7% here. So we're still working on understanding exactly where we think that should be or roughly where that should be with IFRS, but 7% is a good starting point, and we're roughly there. Half of the volume in the large loss side is related to weather events, so natural catastrophes in quarter 1, but that is volatile.On the growth side, I would assume that the negative surprise is on Sweden, where there is a very low growth figure. And that is both due to some remainings of exiting some schemes, which we have communicated previously. So we've been in some consumer schemes together with brokers, and we've exited those. When that comes into effect in our books depends on how that portfolio runs off. And it was less in quarter 4 2023 than what we estimated and it's a bit more in quarter 1 2024. So that's part of it.And then there are some other technicalities in Norway. But the main underlying drivers for the lower growth compared to what we communicated for January 1 for the Nordics is new sales in U.K. commercial sector and Sweden in general. So that's about discipline. Obviously, we may be wrong and our competitors may be right in how we price it. But at the moment, the way we price it is too high compared to how our competitors price. So we win very little business, and that will change over time. So those are cycles.So we are content with the situation because the renewal situation is very stable, high renewal rates in the quarter in total, and we managed to get through price increases to counter inflation and correct profitability where that is necessary. And then the new sales situation is, like I said before, very dependent on where we find profitable volume. The big news is around the April 1 date in the U.K. and especially public sector and housing, which was the very high growth that we had in 2023, also within the same segment. And as you remember, most likely, part of those contracts that were won April 1, '23 were on 1-year contracts, meaning that they have been in the market. So they have been out in the market and we could lose that volume. We have not lost that volume, and we have continued to win business in the segment at the same time as we managed to achieve price increases where that is necessary.So it's a good situation in U.K. public sector and housing, but some competitors have come back and the type of clients we have won in '24 relative to '23 is slightly different. So we won more of the larger clients with more complex structures and higher prices in '23 and less of them. So there are some new competitors or old competitors coming back that have won some of those clients this year. But it's a high growth number from a high level, the U.K.The only thing that I haven't covered through the claims and the growth in this slide is on the cost side. And in total, you can see that the total cost ratio here, which includes broker commissions, is increasing slightly. And that's in spite of a high growth level on the premium side. But if you adjust for the increase in commissions, you'll see that our cost is decreasing. So it's going in the right direction.When it comes to the countries, this is volatile on a quarterly level. So it's much better to look at the countries on an annual level. And we are also comfortable with the cost development. There are conscious decisions of investments in both in total and in certain areas, certain countries, for instance, claims handling in Denmark, the sales underwriting service functions in Sweden with slightly smaller clients than we've had previously. So we need to invest in adjusting our processes. And that will give effect going forward as we grow. So we will increase our capacity per person by making the investments we are making now, which in total give us a reduction in cost ratio. So it's a very thankful situation to be in when we grow that you can invest and for the future and for future efficiency at the same time as the cost ratio does not move upwards.Over to the investment side. There is a very large increase in the assets under management since year end '23. And as some of you most likely have already understood, parts of that is a large part of the difference between the growth in premiums and that is due to FX, so the exchange rates. But the performance in general is strong on both equities and bonds. Remember that this bond figure here is also then, this is where of interest rate swaps, which is solely for the steering interest rate risk from a solvency capital perspective. So the actual running bond result is higher than what this number is. And it looks more like the running yield at 5.8% or a bit above even.On the equity side, it's a reduction with that result, a good result of [ 6.9 ] reduction in the portfolio, a slight increase in number of companies, and we see some opportunities, but it's bullets before cannonballs, so smaller positions and still a very high discount to intrinsic value in that portfolio. The most important message here, correct me if I'm wrong, is that there is no real change in the underlying realities of the investment portfolio. So the papers well. That's the most important.So then we have the profit and loss, covered most areas here, except for the technical ones over to the solvency. Obviously, with the high growth requirements on the solvency side increase a lot on the insurance side. So it's per euro, it's EUR 0.37 capital requirement on the insurance side at the moment. And we have a good technical result and on the insurance side and investment result, which contributes on the capital side. And if you adjust for the proposed dividend of [ NOK 2 ] per share, we end up at [ 196 ] as a solvency capital ratio. So here, you can see the composition of the requirement and I'd say, slightly increase towards the insurance side but fairly stable over time.Then we're back to the best-in-class decision-making and a summary, which is exactly the same as the introduction... Questions?
Thank you. Congratulations with very strong results, first and foremost. I have a question regarding the loss ratio in Norway. You said there is some lag due to inflation and catching up with price increases. When do you expect that to kind of catch up the price increases you have done to get the loss ratio somewhat downwards again?
So as I said, most of the poor result in Norway comes from the motor product, and it's also fairly weak on some of the personal lines where we don't grow a lot at the moment, but it's mostly from the motor side. And the motor product in Norway will not be at a profitable level in '24. So it will take longer than that to correct. And so we still need price increases. So the lag is, we see that effect of the price increases that we implemented both in '23 and January 1, '24, coming slowly in but more is needed. There is one technicality that there is a huge improvement. There is a big improvement in the loss ratio from '23 in motor Norway as well. And part of it is also that there was a seasonality adjustment in quarter 1 '23, which we have not done in '24, approximately on Norway NOK 30 million.
I have one more question. Does it seem like your competitors are doing the same thing, meaning increasing prices due to inflationary pressure still. So you're kind of not alone in that?
In Norway, definitely. And in Denmark, it's slightly different because the inflation figures are so much lower. And in Sweden, somewhere in between. And U.K. is more difficult to say something in general about because there are different niches in the segment we are in that are behaving differently. But in general, it seems like something is happening in the U.K. as well. No more questions here. Amund, do you have any... In the e-mail. Clear and simple. Good. Thank you.