Parque Arauco SA
SGO:PARAUCO
Earnings Call Analysis
Q4-2023 Analysis
Parque Arauco SA
Parque Arauco wraps up a strong year, marked by the development of its strategic framework structured around four pillars that guide the company's direction. There has been considerable progress with key projects such as the initiation of Parque La Molina in Lima and the multifamily project La Mar, with investments surpassing $200 million. This growth trajectory is complemented by significant occupancy rates that have hit 96.5% and an EBITDA increase of 10.2%. Furthermore, profits for shareholders increased by 11.2%.
Tenant sales reflect mixed results across geographies, registering a consolidated growth of 1.6%. While anchor stores experienced sales declines, non-anchor stores showed robust growth. Notably, sales in Colombia grew by a whopping 15.8%, mitigating the more modest increments in Chile and the declines in Peru. In contrast, same area sales display divergent figures, with Peru posting a positive outcome amidst negative trends in Chile and Colombia.
The increasing costs of sales, largely influenced by real estate taxes and the integration of new assets, placed pressure on the company. Nevertheless, an 11.2% increase in shareholder profits and overall revenue growth of 14.3% helped counterbalance these pressures.
A decline in fair value valuations due to correlation with indexed assets income and losses affected the financials this year. Additionally, the financial expenses grew, partly due to the influence of a new bond. Despite these challenges, the company maintained gains on its interest income, ensuring that the financial results remained positive.
Funds from operations (FFO) increased by 1.2%, reaching CLP 154 billion, influenced by new debts specifically from Colombia. Development marquee projects like expansions at iconic locations and anniversaries of established malls underscore the company's focus on client experience and portfolio quality.
The science-based targets initiative has endorsed Parque Arauco's decarbonization objectives, signaling the company's dedication to sustainability practices and confirming its status as a pioneer among South American shopping center companies in obtaining such acknowledgment.
Looking forward, the company forecasts an uptick in tenant sales, expecting high single-digit increases. Same area rents, which represent a significant proportion (over 90%) of total rents, are set to experience mid single-digit growth. This positive outlook is underpinned by robust year-over-year comparisons and an envisaged stabilization in the recent tax increases, a testament to the strong financial health of the non-anchor sector of the business.
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Good morning, and thank you for taking the time to connect to the Parque Arauco's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. I'm Lauren Brown, Head of Investor Relations, and I am joined today by Francisco Moyano, CFO; and Eduardo Perez, CEO of Parque Arauco. I would like to mention a few things before we get started. [Operator Instructions]And to start off today's conversation, I'm going to pass the call over to Francisco.
Thanks, Lauren, and good morning, everyone. We're closing a very positive year. So in this report we wanted to add 2 pages at the start of the report with several milestones to highlight in different areas of our company. This year, we established 4 strategic pillars that are driving the strategy of Parque Arauco, gathering some of our achievements of the year under these pillars and regarding the first pillar of growth, I would like to highlight that we received the addition of new assets in our portfolio, including Parque Fabricato adding 39,500 square meters of GLA in Medellin. During the fourth quarter and Titan Plaza, that is adding 13,500 square meters of GLA in Bogota.Besides that, we started the construction of Parque La Molina in Lima, Peru, a lifestyle mall that will add 16,000 square meters towards the end of 2024 and will require $60 million investment. Regarding multifamily projects, we initiated the construction of our [ La Mar ] a 141 unit building in Lima, and acquired a 298 unit building in Santiago, that has started its operation at the beginning of this year. Finally, in expansions, we continue growing in our iconic assets, including a multi phase project for Parque Arauco Kennedy and the first phase of the expansion of MegaPlaza Independencia in Lima, Peru. Both expansions will consider an investment of more than $200 million in its current stages.Then, passing to the next strategic pillar of profitability, I would like to highlight the 10.2% of EBITDA growth in this year. Through good contract negotiations, sound tenant relationships, cost controls and incorporation of new assets, we were able to end the year with an important result that we will analyze in more detail in this presentation. Besides that, profit for the shareholders of the company is growing 11.2% and the occupancy reached 96.5%, being the highest figure of the last decade in line with our strong portfolio.In the next page and under our third pillar of client experience, we wanted to highlight the work that we have been doing around the experience of our tenants and our end customers. With innovative projects within the digital transformation that Parque Arauco is developing. In addition, we emphasize our focus on omnichannel solutions as Parque Arauco pickup and delivery and announced dark stores projects in all 3 countries in partnership with specialized startups. Finally, this year we were excited to launch our Venture Client program that is looking for transformational solutions in areas of sustainability and the commercialization of our assets.In the fourth pillar of sustainability, I want to highlight the improvement of our MSCI rating from A to AA and the important milestone of setting carbon reduction targets under the science-based target initiatives. Our responsible work in this area included setting these targets for 2029 under the most prestigious guide in the world, making Parque Arauco the first real estate company in South America to have SBTI targets and to be one of the few companies in Chile to achieve this goal. These are some of the milestones described in this report and we invite you to review all of them.Now passing to analyze the results in more detail. In the next page, we have the tenant sales that are closing in the consolidated figure at 1.6% of increase in 2023. This 1.6% as we have been saying in the last report, we have 2 different scenarios. One is the anchor stores that are declining in sales this year, and the rest of the mall with positive figures of above inflation of growth. In Chile, the figure of sales is growing 0.8%; and Peru is declining 3.2%; and Colombia is growing 15.8%.In Colombia, in the last quarter, we added also we have the incorporation of Titan Plaza and Fabricato that is also improving this figure. However, I think, it's important to note that in Chile with 0.8% of increase, it's interesting to see different news in the press in Chile that are talking about declines in sales. So in this scenario, it's quite positive to have after -- a 0.8% increase, which is the result of a strong mix of stores and lines with the products that the customer like to find in our malls. Besides that, the occupancy cost is growing in Chile and Peru and is stable in Colombia. This is also the result again of the decrease in sales in anchor stores.We have to remember that the GLA dedicated to anchor stores in Chile and Peru is around 40%, while in Colombia it is much lower, around 20%. And that is why it's affecting more in Chile and Peru. But if you review the occupancy cost of the rest of the mall is stable, and an increase is more related with the anchor stores. The same area sales is also affected by this situation with the anchor stores with a negative result more in Peru of negative 6.5%. Home improvement stores, in particular, are more important in Peru and those are the ones that are more related with durable goods, which peaked in sales during the pandemic and today we have important declines in sales.With that, I would like to pass to the next page of revenue that in the consolidated figure is growing 14.3%. The breakdown by country is an increase of 14.5% in Chile, increase of 8.3% in Peru, and in Colombia it's also growing 23.1%. With the cooperation of the 2 assets that I mentioned before. The occupancy, as I said, reached the highest figure of the last decade of 96.5%, but it's also quite stable and growing in all 3 countries. In Chile reaching 97% and Peru as well 97% and Colombia reaching 94%, with the Alegra reaching -- Alegra Mall also reaching 81%. The same area sales shows negative figures for Chile and Colombia and a positive figure in Peru. In this same area [ asset, the ] rent is being affected by the variable part of the rent, also related with some anchor stores that has more variable rent. And with that, the decline in sales in this type of tenants is also affecting the same area rent in Chile and Colombia.Now passing to Page 10, EBITDA this year is closing with an increase of 10.2% with an important increase, as I said, in revenues of 14.3%, while in the cost and SG&A expenses we had some pressure during this year. The cost of sales, as we have been experienced during the whole year, is pressured by real estate taxes and also the incorporation of new assets that at the end of the year added some additional costs. The SG&A expense is pressured by insurance costs, mainly in Peru, and also the bad debt provision that during the year amounted to CLP 1,200 million -- CLP 1.2 billion in the whole year.I would like -- regarding the bad debt provision, I would like to say that we have been continued with our conservative approach to this bad debt provision. During this year we have a specific tenant, more in the gastronomic side of the business that had credit problems and with that during the second part of the year, we had to increase our bad debt provision. But it's very important to mention that this is very specific with some tenants, mainly in Chile, and the vast majority of the accounts receivable is having a very sound performance. I would expect about the provisions to be stable in the balance sheet that today is amounting to CLP 11.6 billion.In the next page, we have the income statement of Parque Arauco, we are closing profit for the equity holders of the company of CLP 112 billion, increasing 11.2% against the result of the last year. First, in this income statement, at the end of the year, we made the adjustment for the fair value valuation of our assets that you can find in the other gains by function, you can see that in 2022 we had a result of CLP 110 billion that in 2023 declined to CLP 58 billion.The fair value valuation that we made at the end of the year is driven by the work of the company, the expected future cash flows and the inflation. We all know that the inflation decreased in 2023 against 2022. In 2022, in Chile we have a 13% inflation, while in 2023 around 4%. So with that, the fair value valuation declined this year. But it's very correlated with the income and loss for indexed assets. At the end of the table, that you can see that it's also declining from CLP 83 billion to CLP 39 billion. So with that, the fair value valuation is also compensating the effect of inflation in our debt.The financial income and the financial expenses are growing in 2023 against 2022. We have 2 important factors here. One is that we were able to maintain the interest and gains in our cash, and with that the financial income is growing. And in the financial expenses we have the effect of the new bond that we issue at the beginning of the year, that we issued very successfully at 3.15%. And the incorporation of new debt in Colombia, that is also increasing our financial expenses.With the growth that we are having in new assets in Colombia, part of that investment has been financed by debt in that country, and the debt in Colombia is all nominal. And with that all the impact of interest cost goes to this line account in financial expenses, not affecting the income for indexed assets and liabilities at the end of the income statement as the debt in Chile last, because it has real rates.In the next page, we incorporated a new line. In the participation that we have in other companies, we added Titan Business Center. The acquisition that we made in Colombia in Titan Plaza, also had a participation in the office tower that is called Titan Business Center. It's class AA glass offices, and this acquisition included then for 14,500 square meters of offices. And the result of those offices, since we don't consolidate that part of the business is here in the equity method investments.Finally, in Page 14, we have the FFO of the company that in 2023 is closing at CLP 154 billion increasing 1.2% against last year. The FFO of the company has been impacted by the incorporation of new debt, nominal debt in Colombia. In the calculation of the FFO, we only add the financial expenses account. And so when we take nominal debt, all the interest rates -- all the interest costs goes to this account. While if we take debt in Chile, the interest cost is divided by the -- in the account of financial expenses and the effect that we have by the inflation in the account of income and loss of indexed assets and liabilities. And with that, since we increased our debt in Colombia, the FFO in part has been impacted by that factor.With that, I would like to pass this call to Lauren to continue with the presentation.
Thank you, Francisco. Jumping over to Page 21, I would like to highlight our asset level milestones.In Chile, the expansion at Parque Arauco premium outlet San Pedro of 1500 square meters helped create space to improve the commercial mix, thus increasing revenues by 21% compared to fourth quarter of 2022, and sales levels increased by 5% with the arrival of Kitchen Center and BIX. At Arauco Chillan, approximately 1000 square meters was converted following the departure of a supermarket. This space is currently operational with 6 new stores.In Peru, Parque Lambramani achieved an occupancy rate of 90.3% and net revenues increased by 39% compared to fourth quarter of '22. At Larcomar, the consolidation of Cinepolis and Salazar, our new premium foodhall, resulted in the asset reaching an occupancy rate of 99.1%, a 2.5% increase compared to fourth quarter of the previous year. We also achieved 20% increase in net revenues at this asset.In Colombia, we added our first multi-owner properties, Parque Fabricato and Titan Plaza, into the portfolio with occupancy rates of 94.2% and 95.2%, respectively.Finally, Parque Alegra in Barranquilla continues its consolidation, increasing its occupancy by 4.5 percentage points, net revenues by 10%, and sales by 28%; compared to the fourth quarter of '22. And then, as a result of the continual consolidation of our portfolio, combined with the asset level milestones, this has allowed us to reach the highest levels of occupancy in the last 10 years, reaching a level of 96.5%.Jumping now to our mall by Mall page on 25, I wanted to highlight some various figures that you may have already seen. And as a reminder, we are continuing with the expansions at Parque, at Arauco Chillan and MegaPlaza Independencia. And for this reason you see a decrease in their sales this quarter compared to the quarter of the previous year. Additionally, at Arboleda, we experienced a 1% drop in revenue due to the temporary vacancies that were generated because of the process of bringing in H&M, which opened this year.Jumping now to Page 27. As Francisco had already mentioned, we had various development projects over this quarter and year. This year we announced the projects including the 2 acquisitions of the malls in Colombia, the construction of La Molina, and the expansion of MegaPlaza Independencia in Lima, Peru as part of its master plan. We continued with the expansion of our flagship asset Parque Arauco Kennedy and at the beginning of the year we acquired a multifamily in Chile and began construction on one in Lima.I would like to highlight our construction at La Molina in Lima, Peru, which recently began this is our greenfield development project in a high income neighborhood in Lima. And this lifestyle shopping center requires an investment of $60 million and will add an additional 16,000 square meters of GLA to the portfolio and is scheduled to open at the end of this year.The next few slides highlight client experience, which at Parque Arauco is one of our 4 strategic pillars. So between page 30 and 32 you can find various examples of our efforts in this area and other marketing efforts. And during the fourth quarter, we celebrated the 30th anniversary of Mall Arauco Maipu and the 25th anniversary of Larcomar with various events. These 2 assets are very important assets in our portfolio and we are pleased with their success over the years.In Peru, we initiated a rebranding of Quinde Ica and Quinde Cajamarca, changing their brand to MegaPlaza, realizing our strategy of brand unification. We held various events to celebrate and during which we experienced over 40% increase in customer traffic at both MegaPlaza Ica and MegaPlaza Cajamarca. Additionally, sales during this period showed a 14% and 22% increase, respectively. This change not only marked the beginning of a new era for MegaPlaza, but also solidified its position as a leader in experiences in Peru.Jumping ahead, you will see we have various slides about sustainability. This has been a very busy quarter for us and you can see all the milestones highlighted between pages 33 and 34. One of the most important milestones that Francisco has already mentioned is that our decarbonization goals were approved by the science-based targets initiative, the most rigorous and relevant standard in the field. This made us the first shopping center company in South America to have our goals and targets approved by SBTI. I invite you to look at Page 37 where we explain our decarbonization targets in detail.Additionally, on Page 38, I invite you to take a look at our case study about our outlet portfolio, which has proved to be a very strong asset class during challenging times, and has shown some interesting growth lately. For example, the outlets in Chile are one of the asset classes that experienced the highest growth in sales, 15% growth in 2023 compared to 2022.And with that, I would like to wrap up our call and pass over to the questions section. [Operator Instructions] So, to start off today's discussion, I'm going to pass the call over to Eduardo.
Great. I see a few questions here. The first one is going to be from Jorel from Goldman Sachs.Hi Jorel, you are on.
Good morning. Can you hear me?
Jorel? Yes, we can. Good morning.
Okay. So I just wanted to zero in and focus on the trend on same area rents, particularly for Chile, but also seeing how it applies to Colombia, since given that they were both negative. So I have 2 questions. One is, what is your expectation for future same area rents? I mean, they came in slightly negative for Chile and negative for Colombia? Should we expect this to persist? Is this a one time-issue in your view?And then the second question is, when you think about same area rents, what percentage does that encompass? Is it 70% of total rents? Is it 80%? Those are my 2 questions.
Eduardo here. So, regarding sales, there has been an important separation between anchor store sales and non-anchor store sales. In the anchor store side, supermarkets, they have had a relatively flat performance. However, department stores and home improvement stores have had a very important decline in the last 2 years, including the last quarter.Altogether, the occupancy cost of the non-anchor side of the sale is still below the pre-pandemic levels, so very healthy. And the occupancy cost of the anchor side of the story is increasing, more than 50 basis points. And there we always mentioned that it's important to understand the quality of the portfolio, because we believe that as it has been happening in the last few years, we will see a decrease in the surface of anchor stores, going forward, which as I mentioned, has already continued, has already started. And there, it's very important to understand the quality of the portfolio. If you have a high quality portfolio as the portfolio of [ PARAUCO ], the numbers of eventual closures that you will face going forward are very few. So that's our center scenario.Regarding the conditions at which we have renegotiated our contracts in the last year, in 2023, we have a positive leasing spread above inflation plus 1% in the year, reflecting that the situations -- the financial situation of the non-anchor side of the business is very healthy.Regarding the second question, the same area of sales account for more than 90% of the portfolio, Jorel.
And so I'm just trying to understand. I said, I heard earlier that part of the reason you had negative same area rents was because of the variable component. But what I want to understand is what is the outlook for the same area rents? So, are these expected to maintain at this negative to flat level or should we expect a positive trend going forward for the rents themselves?
Yes. So going forward, we expect Jorel tenant sales increasing at high single digits. So we do expect a change in the trends that we have seen in the last 2 years. Considering same area rent, we expect an increase of mid single digits.
And last question. Sorry for taking so much time. Same area rents represent 90% of total rents as well. This is similar to sales?
More than 90% of total rents, depending on the country, is actually between 90% and 95% of total rents. So it's a very [ regular figure ]
Next, I'm going to pass the Q&A over to Marcelo Motta from Morgan.Marcelo, you're on the line. Marcelo. I'm not able to hear you.
Marcelo, we can't hear you.
You can also type me a question, if you would like, on this platform or directly. And in the meantime, I see a written question from [ Pentavira. ]If you can, please show me again your expectations in GLA for this year?
Okay, so it's important to mention that we incorporated 39,000 square meters GLA with the acquisition of the controlling part of Parque Fabricato, our first regional mall in Colombia. It's also important to mention that we incorporated 13,000 square meters of GLA that we are consolidating different than the office center in the City of Bogota. We are consolidating those assets starting from the last quarter of '23. So we will have the growth of those cash flows going forward during the first 3 quarters of the year.We also have 4 small expansions in Chile with the expansion of Arauco Chillan, which we recently opened during the last months of the year. The opening of the expansion of the outlet of San Pedro De La Paz in Concepcion. We also opened up during the last quarter of '23. And during '24, we have the opening of the expansion of Arauco Coronel. At the beginning of '24 during this first quarter, and the opening of the expansion of Arauco Quilicura at June 2024, plus the expansion of Arauco Chillan, which is a reconversion of the supermarket box to minor store in the City of Chillan. That's on the positive side. Regarding new assets, we expect to open Parque La Molina at the end of '24 in Peru. This is our mall number 21 in Peru, and our second in the format of lifestyle. Those are the positive news.The negative news, but we are building for the future is the decrease in surface of MegaPlaza Independencia. We started our master plan on that asset, which represents more than 40% of our EBITDA in Peru. It's a very important master plan and we are in the process of improving the quality of the retail. And because of that, we are decreasing the surface at this first phase in order to increase it afterwards during '25.It's also important, very important to remember that on '25, we have very important new surfaces entering in the portfolio. First of all, other than Parque La Molina in Peru. First of all, we have the opening of the multifamily buildings we have been building in Lima and in Bogota. Second, we have the opening of the first retail space of the expansion of Parque Arauco Kennedy during the second half of '25, which is also very important. And other than that, we have the opening of the first phase of the expansion in '25, the first phase of the expansion of MegaPlaza Independencia, our main asset in Lima. And during '26, we have the incorporation of new surfaces of Parque Arauco Kennedy again. So '24 is a year we expect of increasing productivity of the portfolio.As a guideline, we can tell you that the EBITDA for the year, we expect it to grow at 2 digits again in '24; and in '25 again, we have all these new surfaces coming from the greenfield projects that we started last year, '23 entering into the proposal.
Here is the written question from JPMorgan. Is same area sales on Page 7 showed on a quarter-over-quarter basis? If so, the numbers seem low due to 4Q seasonality?And then the second question is, will effective tax rate remain at current levels in 2024?
I'll take the first one and I will leave the second one to Francisco. So the first one, no Marcelo, it's a year-over-year basis. It's very important to mention. It's a good question and important to remind that we always report the same area sales and same area rent considering the year-over-year comparison.Regarding taxes, I will leave the answer to Francisco.
Yes, the taxes. I'm sorry, but the current -- you mean the taxes in the income statement, or?
Will effective tax rate remain at current levels in 2024?
Effective, yes. Regarding taxes in 2022, we have a tax benefit in Chile, an important tax benefit in Chile, with the incorporation of some of our new assets and also the construction that we are developing in Parque Arauco Kennedy and with that, the figure in 2022 is below the stable figure for Parque Arauco.I would expect that the effective tax rate in 2024 to be similar to 2023 in that sense.
Let me give you also, Marcelo, a view regarding contributions. Territorial taxes. Not sure if the question was more towards corporate taxes, but regarding territorial taxes, we have been seeing a very important increase in taxes during the last years and we expect that to stabilize, going forward. Most of the increase have been coming from a reevaluation of the tax value of our assets from the tax authorities. We don't see a lot of room of that happening more, going forward. So, we expect that to stabilize going forward.
Thank you, everyone, for your participation today, and thank you for submitting your questions. At this time, we do not have any further questions. So that wraps up our fourth quarter 2023 earnings call, and we will see you in April to talk about first quarter of 2024.Thank you very much. Have a great day.