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CapitaLand China Trust
SGX:AU8U

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CapitaLand China Trust
SGX:AU8U
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Price: 0.67 Market Closed
Updated: May 4, 2024

Earnings Call Transcript

Earnings Call Transcript
2024-Q1

from 0
Y
Yu Qing Chen
executive

Hi. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to CapitaLand China Trust 1Q 2024 Results briefing call. I'm Nicole, IR or CLCT. I have with me today Tze Wooi, CEO, Joanne CFO; and You Hong, Head of IPM. Our agenda for the next hour to begin a short presentation before proceeding to our Q&A section. So we will take questions after the meeting. So I appreciate if you could raise your hands if you have any questions, and I'll direct your time over to you.

I'd like to pass the time on now to Tze Wooi, please.

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

Thank you, Nicole. Good morning, everyone. Let me just dive straight I think most of you are very busy in several announcement results coming on. So let me just very quickly walk you through the 1Q 2024 CLCT's business updates. [indiscernible] key highlights, I think, for 1Q 2024, our [indiscernible] retail malls are continuing to lead the recovery. As you know, we have seeded operations at [indiscernible] also divested changing, but post-AI and retail malls continue to contribute equally strong revenue versus the 11 of last year. . If you look at on a like basis, if we remove the effect of [indiscernible], the current retail portfolio would have grown in terms of revenue, about 5.7% year-on-year. If you look at the retail metrics of shopper traffic and tenant sales in the first quarter, things are continuing on the gradual up part. And then if we look at the shopper traffic double digit, tenant sales double digits, gradually improving the operations post our AEI.

Moving to the net property income level, I think the new economy segments, the logistics in terms of the revenue and in terms of the business part, we also did not receive as much of the government's tax incentives for this current quarter. So that's sort of bring down in terms of the year-on-year effect of the portfolio. If you look at the 3 asset classes that we have today in terms of retail business parts and logistics, Retail is our biggest segment, it continues to be driving at a high level of occupancy, business are stable. Logistics is the one where we are taking a little bit of asset specific leasing actions to address some of these current demand supply challenges. I'll talk a little bit more later on. I mentioned, if you look at the 3 segments, occupancy for retail largely all our assets are back to the healthy level of more than 95%. If you look at our core assets, especially, they are closer to the 99% to 100%. So I think that gives us a firmer footing as we approach the year. I already mentioned in terms of the traffic, it's across double digits. Beijing do a little bit better because of some of the efforts that we have put in, in the last couple of years, you see Beijing malls are almost reaching the pre-COVID levels. Similar picture if you look at the sales side, post AEI, things are grinding out much better year-on-year and also reaching or exceeding the 2019 effect.

Largely, if you look at the business parts and logistics, I think we are all aware that the -- these 2 segments in terms of the market, if you look at where the market vacancies are temporary this year is going to face a little bit of that, more supply coming in, but more business are redoing their footprint and very cost conscious. So I think these have been taken into effect as we balance the occupancy and also the kind of rental expectations for land long. So if you look at what we have done, I think we look at the logistics, we have particularly derisked 2 of our assets. They are more exposed to single tenant. So that has been already completed in terms of our lease renewal of bringing the [indiscernible] to 90% and Wuhan to almost full capacity as a result of that, we have to align some of these rentals to [indiscernible].

[indiscernible] has already been completed [indiscernible] have been repatriated back in 1 quarter. This has been used to pay down our borrowings. So we would see later on gearing will improve. That will also have a flow-through effect in managing our cost of debt and interest expense for the year. If you look at where things are, our gearing has come down relative to a quarter ago to a more healthy level of 40.8% bringing [indiscernible] for this period of time are relatively stable for the balance sheet you're reporting, although at the P&L side, and we continue to see year-on-year close to 5% relative weakness compared to a year ago.

Due to our active debt management, that comprises more of us shifting a little bit of that borrowing mix to RMB also enjoying the RMB's LPR loan reduction and also because of us actively refinancing our onshore loans. So all these actions have helped us to mitigate the rising interest in [indiscernible]. The proceeds are used to pay down more expensive there. So again, if you look at the average cost of debt that has been managed stably and coming down.

Moving on to the maturity profile. You can see again quite consistent. We do not have any refinancing tower that are due for concern. We have completed everything for 2024, nothing is up until 2025. As we speak, we are also actively looking to allocate and rebalance some of our onshore borrowings across several assets. So I think we are able to take this opportunity to refinance across our onshore loans to achieve better overall cost of borrowing. So I think that effect will start to be seen coming into the second quarter and into the second half of this year. So we have to push all the refinancing of onshore debt to 2029. So I think that's an important point for us to take note.

The other thing is we have been progressively as part of debt mix intent to shift more. I think last year, we were closer to 10%. Now last year and we are about 20%. This quarter, we have continued to move progressively to 23%. Our target is to move closer to 30% this year. So I think all these initiatives will help us to manage the overall cost of debt down. In terms of fixing the fixed loan, I think we continue to maintain a relatively high 77%, 75%, 80% kind of fixed rate. If you look at what we are trying to share in the portfolio, I think overall, you can see that effect playing out. I think over the years, we have actively taken back space from the anchors, the lower yielding. So I think part of the AEI event, you can already see now the Superman anchors for the last 3 AEIs have been competitive and reduced. And therefore, you see it's income less weighted to it. As a result of the space that we take back, we have been pushing more towards FMB, which is a trade debt that is increasing in sales and capturing spending.

On the other hand, we also see room for us to do more. And I think you can see services also improving versus a year ago. So I think these are all the leasing directions that we are shaping the portfolio. And I think CLCT today continues to be 1 of the real out there to be very well diversified in terms of its revenue streams. I think 70% comes from retail, 27% comes from business parts and less than 3% from logistics. And if you break it down top 10, less than 10% exposed and the largest tenant is only about 1.6%. So I think these are all the diversification, the revenue streams that we want to build resilience, and I think this has been shared accordingly.

Looking at retail, I mean, we have now 9 retail malls and if you look through the retail malls cause our AEI efforts, I think they are doing much better. I think if you look at the leading indicators of traffic sales in terms of what they have been capturing footfall and demand in the last 1 quarter, Chinese New Year, things are trending well. And especially if you look at this quarter, the 3 malls that we had completed the AEI contributed more than half of the incremental sales improvement.

So I think this is a good encouraging sign that what we have done to refresh the mall offerings are capturing the consumer return and spending. Across the trade set trading categories, we are pushing more SMB. These are doing well. Services, as I mentioned, in this quarter, leisure and entertainment are also coming back in the sense that we are able to sign a little bit more tenants along those fronts.

So I think generally, an environment is, I would say, gradually improving to a more normal state that we have seen before. I think if this sales this traffic, this positive data plan continues to play through, I think you start to see a little bit more healthy cycle for us to improve our rental in the next cycle. I mentioned already, you look at all our retail malls besides the 2 smallest one, which is [indiscernible] and Xizhimen, which is trending around 95%. The rest of the assets are already pushing closer to that kind of 98% and 99% full occupancy. Typically, for period-end reporting, we do see close to 2%, 3% additional vacancy as somebody will follow up before someone will come in. During COVID, you have seen that opening up to maybe 5% over to even 7%. So I think generally, you can see more malls are now added to that 98% as a whole as the tool that are weaker, we have to do a little bit more to strengthen it.

This quarter, if you look at where things are in terms of the churn. I think generally, the retention has improved relative to a year ago. We are closer to 61% in terms of retention. So I think that's a sign that things are generally stabilizing. So that gives us a little bit more room to control the downtime. And consistently with the last few quarters, the general occupancy cost that we are tracking are back to industry norms. And looking at where we are capturing the new tenants, who are coming into our mall. These are the few sectors and continue to see the SMBs continue to be a little bit pushed services, I mentioned earlier, natural entertainment.

And for selected malls, I think discussions are continuing to do well, especially in our lower-tier cities, for example, in [indiscernible] and [indiscernible], I think they are a strong mall in the catchment. They continue to be able to bring in more interesting brands to service the catchment. Just a quick snapshot of how things are. I think I mentioned quite a lot on this. Generally, the AEI has improved, and this impact will continue to drive improved positioning and also be able to capture rental productivity for the coming year.

Let me move on to the business parks side. If you look at business parks, we are across the 3 cities, again, the different parts and different unique strength and positioning across -- if you look at where things are, again, if you look at where market vacancies, they are typically trending around 20% to 30%. If you look at the market survey, our parks have continue to maintain a very stable occupancy of over 90%. The 2 Hangzhou, we have mentioned quite a few times that the demand supply in the short term will create a little bit of [indiscernible] where businesses are still very, very cost conscious.

Some of those tenants that have been with us maybe attracted away because of them taking on their new real estate themselves or being incentivized because of very low rental into other districts. So I think there's a little bit of churn but that said, I think in the first quarter, we do see a little bit of more leasing volume that we signed, which is a good sign compared to a year ago. Looking at where things are, I mentioned, if you look at [indiscernible], which is very steady. We continue to be able to do quite new leasing volume in the first quarter, 20,000 and at a 4% rental reversion. So that's a healthy sign. And we continue to see [indiscernible] actually expanding some of our business or footprint. So I think that continues to be a good sign. At the same time, we are also signing in new leases that are in the trade cycles that we are targeting to diversify that kind of reach. So I think this is a good sign. And the [indiscernible], there are the 2 assets. The smaller one, we do have a lot of leasing volume for 2024 and the bigger 1 of IT, I think for the first quarter, we continue to see some new signings. I think more is for the second half of this year, where we have several bigger lease expired profile up.

So that's something that we are working in the advance. to secure or to get replacement as they continue. For Hangzhou, I mentioned, I think, again, quite a healthy [ 8,000 ] over square meters of leases signed from the different trade centers, and we'll continue to work within our own internal and using some of the government agencies and external network, the tenant community to help us reach out to some of those community or leases that we can bring in. In terms of business part, the retention is a little bit more quite typical. I think 75% are being renewed, and we are bringing about 5%, and we continue to see sectors likely electronics, the biomedical areas that we want to target our efforts. Moving to logistics. I think we have [ 4 ] I mentioned, if you look at the general landscape, I think we know that a lot of the logistics real estate was built because of the expanding e-commerce growth.

But I think that part of the demand has little bit moderated. And I think post-COVID, I think there's a lot of supply chain movement. So I think this is the macro landscape. And if you look at where things are in terms of rental, because of these asking rental are softer and the places that we are in will be new supply company. So I think this is the kind of leasing environment that we have to handle. So looking at where things are, we have [indiscernible] 2 of our major leasing focus for last year end.

So [indiscernible] and Wuhan, we reached that leasing and now back to 90 for full occupancy and we continue to be able to sign smaller multi leases into the building because it's more catered for smaller setups. So we continue to see demand coming from logistics players who are servicing the end consumer retail products. So I think that is an area of focus. And our location continues to be able to near the [indiscernible] and close to whether transform. So I think this is going to be the focus. And for 2Q, I think we have secured releases. I think this [indiscernible] should be able to progress from 60s in last year, the 70s this quarter, and we are progressing to the 80s this year.

This starts with the Shanghai one. With the exit of our last logistics, the 3PL tenant, we are now weighing options or whether we want to do a more short term trying to find out similar kind of operators who like that location. The location is still good because it's near to the [indiscernible], and it's very suitable for players who are playing the [indiscernible] and then this area generally service a lot of those car manufacturers. So I think this is an area that we want to spend a bit more time to catch us.

So this one area overall. The other area of work that we are trying to do is to see whether we can take some time to CapEx the building and suit some of the tenants that can then lease this area for a longer time. So I think these are the 2 listing options that we are weighing as we look at the opportunity.

So to conclude, I think we continue to stay very focused in the current environment, driving asset performance, watching the operations to make sure that we tighten all the controllable expenses, the margins, et cetera. We have unlocked value for many of the mature and some of these non-core will continue on the part to do a what opportunities we can continue to do that. At the same time, we have completed a series of AEIs and those assets are now contributing much better to a leaner and fitter retail assets.

So I think this is going to be the strategy and focus going into 2024. And I've already mentioned, I think if you look at where things are, 2024 is going to be a very important year for China's economy. First quarter numbers slightly ahead of analyst than market expectation. And I think you continue to see the government putting a lot of policy emphasis trying to stabilize the property sector to shore up the business confidence and how consumption is going to be a pillar of that 5% GDP growth. So I think you're going to see more policy intention moves to this area. So I think we are in the right sectors. I mean in terms of our asset class, we are aligning very favorably to where the China's own economic priorities are at. So I think for retail, you continue to see us doing that. And business part, we have to be a bit more local in terms of working through the local government on who they want to face those sectors, those industry names that you would like to house within the catchment. And same thing for logistics. I think we will continue to push occupancy, while being very pragmatic about what we can in terms of the rent and also the tenant quality.

So I think with that, I'll open up for Q&A. Thank you,

Y
Yu Qing Chen
executive

Thank you Tze, for your presentation. Let's now proceed to the Q&A statement. I see 2 has cans on the right. So can I pass the time to do this I have a few questions.

U
Unknown Analyst

Maybe I'll take them one by one. Are you able to share the reversions across the 3 -- the 3 segments for this quarter?

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

Logistics, I think we have guided. I think it is very in line with what we have guided. I think the 2 major assets that we have secured the leases. The reversions are around a negative 20%. For this quarter, if you look at our business part besides Hangzhou, which is going through that churn. So Hangzhou is negative. Other than that, the other 3 business parks are still on the single-digit positive part. Retail is the 1 where you start to see that divergence. If you look at this quarter among our 9 malls essentially the bottom 3 are the ones that continue to exhibit a little bit more negative pressure that is actually seen lines still going through a little bit of negative.

But I would say this quarter, the negative overall is less negative compared to a year ago. So I think we are moving towards that path. The second mall that is still under a little bit of more pressure are the smaller ones, right? The other one that seeing the -- the bigger ones like [indiscernible], we are already in a positive mode. The strong ones I mentioned [indiscernible] these are very dominant assets in their local catchment. They continue to exhibit in stability. So if you look at this quarter, I would say 5 of our 9 are already flattish or slightly positive. That gives us that 2 to 3 [indiscernible] reamin negative. So that's the true picture.

U
Unknown Analyst

Okay. Okay. For the retail reversions, there should be still some are from the AI work that you've done in the past 1 to 2 years, right? [indiscernible] still helpful.

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

Yes. In terms of the revenue, growth that will play through into the revenue and the NPI for this coming year [indiscernible] because we had already calculated the new merit in our previous quarter. So we won't be renting in reversion in [indiscernible] has been signed in terms of those leases. I mentioned like the Grang Canyon, the Rock Square and Yuhuating improved leases give us the flow-through effect into 2024. So that is only for the AEI loss. I also want to highlight, if you look at our lease structure today, 90% or 80% of our lease structure is still very much on the higher order fax or percentage of G2, whichever is higher. That's still the #1. So as the sales become better, we see more and more chances of us getting the incremental.

So I think that's a point to remember. The second point is, we have always been signing maybe typically it's about 3 years. So within the 3 years, there are also rental escalation organic [indiscernible]. So there will each typical year, let's say, [ 20%, 30% ] is coming up for renewal. The 70% is still steady, but a little bit of escalation. So all in, I think if we can push occupancy and push sales traffic I think generally, we are moving into a state that is better, and it's helped by the fact that we have exited, I would say, the weaker performance assets and we'll continue to look for opportunities to do so. So what was retained continues to be stronger performer in the typical catchment they are in. So I think that is what we are trying to share portfolio.

U
Unknown Analyst

For the function logistic asset, the strategy is to either continue to look for a tenant within the 3PL or potentially CapEx to so another tenant. When I talk about CapEx, what kind of CapEx are you thinking about? Is it a core storage or other kinds of use?

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

When we say CapEx, generally, it means that the tenant profile that we would like to bring in, sometimes they may have certain needs to see that 1 business model to example, certain zones, they may need certain special needs because this is building has first, second floor. They may need certain selling high asset in certain places. So what I meant CapEx includes all this. if it's a close storage kind of tenant typically, they will also do quite a little bit of more the M&E, the health refrigeration area. So I think this is something that we are open-minded.

And the R&D is about us putting in CapEx, such that we can work through the tenant that we want and we can build in a longer way and how we can recognize some of these CapEx. So I think it is something that we are working on one half the other way, obviously, as you see whether there are other 3PLs that can come in and take the space for its use.

Y
Yu Qing Chen
executive

Can I pass a time to Terence, please? .

M
M. Khi
analyst

Thanks for the presentation today. I just want to ask again, maybe a follow-up on the [indiscernible]. How long do you expect the downtime to be, when should we expect this to recover?

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

It's a very good question. I think we are -- on various parts, I think things can be quick if they are good indication of people who can commit. I think we are still narrowing down on a few options. I think if anything, we probably need to have 3 to 6 months of a period for us to commit and be able to bring it up. So I think it's something that we have to look at. It is a new tenants that we need to keep back. I think the duration will not be longer because we also a little bit more work to be done. But in some of we can come in and take the space faster. So I think good indication will be probably 3 to 6 months is something that we are working .

M
M. Khi
analyst

And in terms of -- you said that we are actually looking at increasing the proportion of RMB that. So in terms of financing costs, how do you see your financing cost trending? What should be the expected rate for this year?

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

Generally, I mentioned we have 2 markets, the [indiscernible] market and the RMB market. So the RMB bucket today, you see us our wet is closer to 20% to 25% [ RMB ] number. That market will start to see reduced interest expense as we go into 2024 because of the LPR reduction that we already enjoying, that's the #1 point. The number 2-point is we are consolidating all our RMB borrowings to refinance to not only enjoy the lower LPR plus improved credit margin. So I think that is a big initiative that we will do such that we manage down because RMB loans today are for below. We have transing and the proceeds have been used now to pay down our more expensive single level market.

If you look at this chart, you can see today the big portion that we have, so called, to reduce our borrowings are coming from the Sing dollar the MML bucket and also the Sing dollar floating bucket. So this now in terms of the dollar value has come down. And this is also another big area that we are managing now our interest expense. So I think these few moves will help to neutralize some of those fixed rate hedging contracts that will be coming up for renewal this year. But as we speak, majority of those fixed rates are only up for renewal towards the last quarter of the year. So on a net basis, I would say we can manage broadly our average cost of debt, not higher than what we have done for last year yes.

M
M. Khi
analyst

Okay. So we should expect sort of like a flattish for the full year?

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

I think all things concerned looking at where the market is thinking about the second half, the interest rate level based on what I just mentioned earlier, we should be able to control within the 3.5%, 3.6% level that we have shown last year.

M
M. Khi
analyst

Okay. And final question for me. In terms of asset monetization, do you have any updates for asset monetization this year?

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

I mean this is obviously being looked at all the time. I mean such things is very hard for us to pre-commit not to compromise some of these businesses that we are trying to do, right? I mean, obviously, our philosophy is always to monetize smaller assets more mature assets that are harder to compete, and they are not going to be a big contributor towards the overall portfolio. So I mean, that gives you a sense on where we are focusing our efforts. In today's landscape, more likely than not, we are [indiscernible] local buyers. You saw us do that last year we [indiscernible]. So I think we will continue to use our local network to see such opportunities as we look at monetization for those more mature assets that we call.

M
M. Khi
analyst

Is it only limited to retail malls or would you consider divesting some of your logistics given that there's some [indiscernible].

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

We will consider. Definitely nothing is more when we talk about our business. I think the key here is to how we can, first of all, operate the business. Second, the better use of our capital and if someone can come in and strict and deal with us and makes sense, we can use the [indiscernible] will be a cycle to improve our financial strength that involves reducing the gearing, then will be accretive. And we have proceeds coming there or combination of reducing gearing and growing share buyback. These are things that will be much, much more accretive. So we are definitely seeking opportunities on these fronts. .

M
M. Khi
analyst

I said last question, but you just mentioned share buyback. So I noticed that you didn't put that in as in the proposed use of proceeds for the divestment, the strong sales. So would you consider doing a buyback now given especially how the share price has been -- it's actually quite low right now?

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

I think in our announcement, we did put there in the news of proceeds. But when the first quarter came in because we had to balance a little bit of that distribution payment, right? Because in March, we have to pay distribution and also to watch our gearing, looking at where the RMB against thing is, I think we wanted to be a bit more prudent we want to at least reduce the gearing as offer objected.

But definitely, we will look up for opportunity, which is why I mentioned earlier, we can monetize some of our existing holdings. It makes sense for us to do that. We are open to the assets. We are not [indiscernible] to any -- you mentioned specifically logistics. I mean if someone we can do a deal with, I think we are open-minded about it. And I think the proceeds can be used to reduce gearing and to do share banal be agreed. And that's something that we will definitely consider in our Asian just 2 days ago, we had also saw investors mandate, and we have actually enlarged mandate to 5%. So I think we are actually [indiscernible] that the capital management tool and flexibility when opportunity arrives, yes.

Y
Yu Qing Chen
executive

Can we have Joy please?

Q
Qianqiao Wang
analyst

Two questions from me. First on retail. Could you share a bit about your costs? And also in terms of your income, what percentage of GTO you're getting now versus maybe pre-COVID?

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

Yes. The first question, I may see in terms of costs, generally, you have stayed quite constant with what we had indicated in the last quarter. Most of the malls are trending in the teens to maybe about 20%. So I think this is what I feel is a more industry healthy state. in the days where you continue to maintain this level of our costs where the next lease cycle comes up. I think everyone will be in a better position to look at what is more realistic running range.

Last few years have been particularly difficult as we all know, retailers are still going through that recovery mode. General sentiments are still cautious, I would say, in terms of expanding. So I think people need to give them be on time to do that. But I think in terms of what we have done to the specific malls sales cost, I think moving closer to a more healthy state. The second question is in relation to GTO. I think broadly, the spread of our GTO component still lies between about 3% to 5% range depending on various malls.

On this particular quarter, I do see improved GTO incremental coming in from a stronger malls. So you start to see a little bit more of that in our site have been careful in our [indiscernible]. So I think these actually why I meant that as you rebase some of these fixed rent and because of our destructure having that higher order to we start to see a little bit more flow in from GTO. And by and large, because of the way we structured the lease, it's not going to be very, very different from it's not going to be very, very volatile. What was a little bit more during the convenience, if you recall, we moved maybe from 3 to 5 to maybe 5 to 7 because we were signing a little bit more short-term pure GTO dispatches. Now I think we are a little bit going through that cycle where we don't have to renew on a pure GTO basis, we'll rebase them to be based on a center whichever is higher. So for this quarter, it is still within the 3% to 5% range.

Q
Qianqiao Wang
analyst

I see. I guess you have quite a bit of reversion coming up this year, right? So in terms of how aggressive you're going to push rental you're still going to be more measured, even though the sales are already actually trending above pre-COVID rents are actually below pre-COVID. So actually, retailers are doing pretty well. Is that fair to say?

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

It's a fast statement to say that the malls are gradually doing better. But as we look at total sales, as we look at specifically [indiscernible] down to the various trade categories and the specific tenants, we need to go down to the granular because part of the up cost part of the total sales are also because of a very active shift in NLA mix and the trade category. So we are pushing more F&B today because F&B today's ability to take on that up cost has improved relative to 10 years ago because of the different formats of SMB. We are no longer doing very big format SMB that had a lot of CapEx. Therefore, they're cost ability is much lower. Today, if you look at average rent of some of the smaller format, like the 50 square meter up to 100 square meter kind of foot format, the passing rental are not too different from similar, let's say, 100 square meters of fashion. And you do see that shift over time. So I think that is what I meant by the rental cost will move in relation to the trade anemic that we have in the mall. And I think we are looking at individual trade cats to see whether we are in the right cycle to improve rent. So I think definitely, as we move towards the next cycle, things should shapped up better than yes.

Q
Qianqiao Wang
analyst

Okay. Got it. And my second part question is on [indiscernible]. So based on your conversation, if we were to find a tenant today, would your sign-up rent be equivalent to a 20% negative rental reversion or you need to give more incentives.

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

I think ballpark at in market now is looking at, I would say, generally, asking below it's something that is quite prevalent. I think we should stand ready to be able to do something that's between 20 and 30, depending the kind of tenant quality we want and also the kind of credit worthiness that we think we want to bring in. So I think this is the part where I say there's a little bit of deliberation, whether we want to find someone who can take out the space or take a pass displace, we can pack a little bit the remaining zones. I think these are some of the things that we are working through currently as we speak but rental will be lower than what was the last since.

Q
Qianqiao Wang
analyst

And how do you think that will affect that valuation?

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

Good question. I mean if it's -- I think if you really look at the market demand, supply and what's the outlook, I think for this temporary [indiscernible] if the market rental is going at that around 20%, 30%, we do expect a little bit of that the contracted rent period to have that effect in terms of the valuation. But as for how that valuation plays out, I think we will continue to take market data and the valuations but I do feel that the all demand supply continues, market rental is being [indiscernible] down, there should be a bit of downward pressure to our portfolio.

I mean, we took a little bit of early revaluation at year-end last year to, I think, move down closer was it 3% or 4% down. So I think it's an really to actually the internal market don't turn down positively soon. There might be a little bit of this negative that we have to look at.

Y
Yu Qing Chen
executive

Derek.

D
Derek Tan
analyst

Tze, can you hear me.

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

Yes.

D
Derek Tan
analyst

Just question. I'm just focusing on your business part assets, right? So I'm just looking at both Suzhou and Hangzhou, right? The market occupancy is around similar levels of 70-percent -- and while you can hold your occupancy for now for so I'm just wondering whether should we keep a closer look on whether your occupancy levels should be able to be hold at about 80%, 90%? Just wondering to get a sense on whether there's downside risk to that?

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

For Hangzhou, I think, generally, we had to be 2 components. I would say 1 is more like some of R&D offerings nature. The other component is more of like the industrial nature. I think the industrial nature is one where we feel that the demand upstream supply, and we continue to see demand. So I believe that part of the segment continues to be highly [indiscernible]. I think that's the first point. The second point for the R&D, I would say that there will always be a little bit of the teams and of tenants, profile, business model not able to do as well [indiscernible] line attractive. Generally, the business are very cost-conscious now corporate consolidating.

So for the R&D, the business area, there may be temporal, the kind of operational vacancy. But more all, I think our in things that [indiscernible] continues to be very well regarded. And I don't think there will be a big swing. So for [indiscernible]. The 1 that watching a little bit more it's the [indiscernible]. I mentioned earlier [indiscernible] in the second half of this year, potentially, there might be certain consolidation of some of new tenants because currently, the tenants due to previous year's expansion, they had a footprint around different places to consolidation. So I think for Ascendas Innovation towers, I think second half is where where we want to do very early work. That one has potentially has been in on the smaller I think it's more or less there. I think the big tenants have renewed last year that will carry us to 2025. Hangzhou is the 1 where I mentioned [indiscernible] I think if you look at the vacancy, we are actually already being pragmatic about our rent to make sure that our occupancy can, sort of, been driven up. So I think for Hangzhou being should stabilize around this level, we see improvement as we balance will not be asking in got.

D
Derek Tan
analyst

Sorry, if I can just follow up. So Hangzhou Phase I, Phase II, the difference in occupancy is also a function of the type of industries that's located there or just a function of the expiry profile.

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

I think it's more a function of the tenant types that we have signed earlier on. Phase 1 carries more e-commerce and some of them are like our an they may pick up. Space from us and then they do the small subs. But I think some of these business models are shifting [indiscernible]. So I think Phase 1 is to feel a little bit more of growth churn that we need to do.

D
Derek Tan
analyst

Got it. Got it. Sorry, last 1 is if you look at [indiscernible]. I mean, logistics, we understand things are a little bit tough. But from this park, you think the strategy, let's say, to retain tenants, is there a risk that you have to also offer fairly in good rents for keeper tenants, i.e., do you see a 20% drop in rents in [indiscernible].

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

On business, I don't think in rental landscape is as say this is not like[indiscernible].

D
Derek Tan
analyst

Or is why somebody told me.

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

Generally, the business park is still a more controlled kind of asset class. Logistics a little bit more different landlords different behaviors are [indiscernible]. I think our business park is not any kind of business parks. I think our business has really been treated and position with local government as a JV partner. So I think [indiscernible] to want to use part our own leasing network that is the CapitaLand platform, and also writing on external network, which comes from our more government partners and some of our existing tenants their downstream upstream timing network. So I think this is something that we continue to do. So to answer your question, Hangzhou I mentioned this year, to balance occupancy. I do feel that the reversion we have to be realized, so negative, but not to the extent of the logistics now.

Y
Yu Qing Chen
executive

Vijay, have few questions, please.

V
Vijay Natarajan
analyst

Tze and Nicole A couple of questions. My first question is generally, in terms of business parks and logistics, the business still seems to be struggling a bit. Can you give some color in terms of the rental defaults or the rental areas for this phase in the last 1 or 2 quarters, especially some of the business has gone down. Have you seen rent defaults increasing in your portfolio, especially in business parks and the logistics space?

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

Generally, as part of our lease management, we typically would have that security deposit that we hold. So we don't have a lot of all these areas or those people happening that can to relatively a small percentage of our total portfolio. If you look at the year that just passed and in the last 3 months, I would say areas tend to fluctuate around that 2%, 3% level of our revenue. But that is again having security poster. And actually, part of the leasing strategy is sometimes we have to exceed these tenants. And that's why the occupancy reflects that decision that we have already exited a tenant who are no longer healthy.

So part of the build decision to derisk you see that playing through in logistics already, right? Some of the tenants are having difficulty. So by continuing to let them be there, it's no focus side. So that's why I think in the Shanghai, we have strike deal that they leave. We have given them some rebate for the last few months. But overall, when they leave, we managed to then use the security positive to offset. So I think these are some of the groundwork that we are always looking out for. So overall, I would say it's managed to that level of 2%, 3% areas not too alarming, and we always take early actions to manage the exposure.

V
Vijay Natarajan
analyst

Got it. So basically, since the deposits haven't covered some of this.

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

And if the tenants are same areas and through negotiation through working our installment plans through understanding their business profile. If we see that it's not working out, then we have to arrive at the to part ways. And then that's when the occupancy maybe we get a little bit of that friction, and then we look for new ones. So I think this is what is playing through in this market is a more challenging time. Generally, we have to appreciate that the economy is not chiming as quickly as in the past. There's a bit of business consolidation, very corporate and cost-conscious in terms of where they want to footprint, their resources. So these are going through the marketplace currently. .

V
Vijay Natarajan
analyst

My last question, in terms of tenant sales. Tenant sales in engaging all seems to be lower despite higher food traffic compared to tenant sales in non-bedding malls, which are higher despite lower foot traffic. I mean, is there a difference between Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities spendings? I mean the general Laret out there is Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities are doing well in terms of consumer spending and economy. But in your portfolio, it seems to be the other way around. Is there some difference?

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

Let me just figure that you are looking at this.

V
Vijay Natarajan
analyst

Yes, the food traffic in [indiscernible] malls about up 21%, but the trend sales is up 90%, whereas non-Bengal the food traffic is but the sales is up 15% -- more than 15%. So what's this difference?

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

I think these numbers are we just have to be caution. We should not take a 1 snapshot of view and just a I think generally, for traffic, we are seeing quite a return to our malls in Beijing for this particular quarter year-on-year. So you can see actually the footfall improvement coming through to [indiscernible] especially and also Grand Canyon. Grand Canyon obviously is because post reopening of out AEI investment, you tend to see more people coming in, which is to be expected over this period of time. The year-on-year increase for Beijing sales, I would say that typically, these are our big assets. So the base is already at a relatively high level. So the incremental sales as a percentage of being potentially, it's not going to be that much. But that's it, if you look at Beijing, of that 9%, I think you are looking at Grand Canyon is the 1 that's contributing the most towards that 9% because of AI assets. So Grand Canyon, in particular, for this quarter, it's growing at about 20-over. So I mean that gives you a sense, right? And then looking at the non-Beijing malls, again, primarily driven by the 2 malls of Rock Square. Again, Rock Square, we show double digits, quite in line with the 15% over and also for eating, which also grew double digit. So I think that this gives you a sense. It's more driven by our AI incremental impact.

V
Vijay Natarajan
analyst

Got it. Just to get a broad view, is the consumer spending picking up more in Tier 1 cities compared to Tier 2 cities? Or how is the pattern? And how would it impact your [indiscernible].

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

Yes. And that is a good question. It's very hard for us to just use point just generalize this way. I would say that across our Tier 1 and 2 cities that we offer, it's more asset specifically driven I mean, if you look at F&B, for example, I would say so long as you bring a good F&B that's relevant to our mall, it grows very well, same for [indiscernible]. So I find that based on our own data point, it's harder to just imply that Tier 1 is better than Tier 2 or the other way around. It's more driven by 1 part actions that we have done to the mall in particular. And if you have the right mix, the right brands, you do see the influx of traffic and sales in there.

Y
Yu Qing Chen
executive

Can I pass a time to Joel, please?

U
Unknown Analyst

Can you hear me?

Y
Yu Qing Chen
executive

Yes.

U
Unknown Analyst

I just had 2 questions. The first is regarding the financing environment. So I was just wondering how receptive are banks currently in China and perhaps versus Singapore in providing the loans or refinancing your loans? Has this improved from the past?

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

Generally, I would say that I think due to our parentage CapitaLand China branding in China, I think we are still accounted very well support. Second, I think for most of the banks onshore on the Chinese banks you're referring to, they are also reviewing their foreign loan book and who they want to extend lending to. And I think on both grounds, we stand on a good state because of our parentage names, the CapitaLand branding and also the red business as a whole, the banks are very comfortable lending against us because we are primarily already cash flow driven kind of business.

So they are very assured that we are not like those development sector that we are seeing through a lot of the that challenge. So we are able to continuously refinance our onshore borrowings. In fact, we are able to get better terms which is exactly what I was trying to highlight earlier on, if you look at across our onshore books as on this picture shows, right, if you look at just the green [indiscernible]. So we have different [indiscernible] maturity. So we are now trying to consolidate and refinance leaf on these different terms and just push everything out to 2029 to catch improved credit margins at this point in time.

So I would say, generally, our ability to a local bank is still very strong. And I think that is our clear competitive advantage. At the Singapore side, I think it's quite business as normal. I mean we are well supported. We are able to take different sources of funding, increasingly, you see banks knowing what we want and exactly why we still do on better products. The hedging instrument, different types that we are entering. So I mean, lastly, you saw us we are the first issuer of the FTC entity to do that. So again, I think this gives the emphasis that our name of our business can have this wider source of funding and help improve our cost of debt, yes.

U
Unknown Analyst

Good to hear. I'm just wondering, for the Chinese banks, are you spread across a few Chinese banks or just .

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

Very much like in Singapore, we are well spread about all the local banks. In China, we are similarly also well spread among the Chinese local banks yes. .

U
Unknown Analyst

5 Yes. Okay. Got it. My next question is regarding any upcoming supply. I understand that in Rock Square, Guangzhou supply coming into the market being Taikoo and MIXC more on this comes in 2025, 2026. So just wondering, any concerns from your end, what's your strategy because I know it's quite a significant increase in the retail supply nearly 200% in the whole year. I'm just wondering what are your thoughts?

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

I think when we look at supply, we probably need to still toward the direct catchment and tire industry. that we are in. I think for Guangzhou, Rock Square, I think we are relatively in a very mature catchment, our mall is actually linked to the residential catchment. They are on top of MRT station that has 2 lines or that more. So I think we are in a fairly, fairly steady state in terms of the mature catchment. The ones that you mentioned, I need to maybe take a look at how far it is to our industry. At the end of the day, we are doing very capitive business around our kilometer radius and those kind of trains that connect to our core. But I think that is something that we will continue to look at.

So far, I don't see in direct. I think that is really a something new. I mean if you look at China, the Tier 1 cities, typically the new supply. For those cities that would better plan, they are typically new supply that whether a little bit who support a new residential catchment that they are trying to follow. So ours is more product area.

Y
Yu Qing Chen
executive

And we have a number, please?

U
Unknown Analyst

Just 2 from me. First is what is supporting the health of Chinese consumer to push our tenant sales up to more than 13%. And how sustainable is the tenant sales?

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

I think what we see -- what we see is that our mall positioning is still frame much targeted at the household family spending. And I think that segment continues to be driven by Essentials and continue to be driven by the lifestyle improvement. So we are not really pitch segment that's very volatile and driven by more an experience, we are less exposed to them. And I think year-on-year, if you look at the sales improvement, large part is people are now normalizing that. That's the first point, normalizing that People still need to come out to a social base to spend time and to gain experiences and also to mean their consumer spending needs. So what we have done is we are remixing our content in the mall. We can see F&B.

We can see less pressure. You can see more services, more leisure, more beauty and health care, et cetera. So it is a combination of us having new mix brands that then now as we normalize that, we will want to experience new things. And I think it's a combination of that, that you see for the current quarter, year-on-year, we see that improved sales. I saw in 1Q, I think the market in general sales is probably around at 5%, 4.7% level. So I think our portfolio data support that level. Of course, I say this quarter is because of us post AEI. You have a lot of new content, new experiences people come in. So I think it has a bit of a fact. That's why our portfolio sales is trending above the market. But generally, if we can continue to grow at about that 5% level, I think that's a very healthy state for everybody doing this business stuff.

U
Unknown Analyst

Yes. That's very clear. My second question is what government incentives have you seen supporting the property market or consumer spending?

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

Referring general government.

U
Unknown Analyst

Yes, general government policies.

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

I think the government policies have been quite active, right, in terms of stabilizing the property sector. I think you already see them rolling out quite a few measures on the residential side. I think the government's focus is primarily to make sure the [indiscernible] biased projects that should be completed to deliver I think they are making sure that they are firming in that access to funding to the right projects. . So I think that part is quite clear to end. I think they have also removed quite a lot of those earlier property measures. So I think that is quite an important area for them to stabilize the sentiments around the [indiscernible] sector. For the commercial real estate, I think it has to be a little bit more for. I think we are also targeting a little bit more on the small enterprises ahead of time. So people who are smaller, they may consider some kind of tax incentives for the smaller enterprises.

So I think this is something that the government is going through. I mean [indiscernible]

U
Unknown Analyst

Yes. Actually, we are pushing through the equipment upgrades and trading of consumer goods. So I think they are trying to push on the domestic consumption front. So I think recently, they just also announced that they will be doing and encouraging more trade-ins and consumption of items like home appliances. So this will encourage my [indiscernible] reaching its growth target without relying too much on the property market.

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

But as we speak, I think we all feel and we think that the gunman can have a little bit more direct and tenant measure to go to the household because ultimately, is going to be driven a lot by consumption. As you know, the external environment is not that conducive for China's certain exports and those kind of intention. So I think domestic consumption is going to be key. And that's why the property sentiments have to destabilize household income to stabilize. And if they can get a boost, I think the consumption will pick up. Generally, cautious mode. But when things are a bit better, people still need to spend. So the key is when men need to spend, are we able to capture the the front wave of where they spend. So we have to keep refreshing our most insureds long as we are in the top quartile or the catchment in the business that we want to do, I think we should be able to catch it when people take back to normal. . Ultimately, people still need to spend on the essentials and lifestyle choices.

Y
Yu Qing Chen
executive

So with this I was just wondering if there's any last questions that anybody might have. Okay. Then thank you very much, everyone, for joining. Thank you, Tze, for your presentation insights. Would you like to share any last what am [indiscernible] you like take away.

T
Tze Wooi Tan
executive

I think 2024 is going to be a very important year for China. I think it's a China-focused business we are all watching the data on very closely. What you see us being able to manage more actively. You continue to see us driving asset performance in operations. we'll look for opportunities to really shape our portfolio quality, I mentioned, looking at opportunities to monetize some of those assets along the way really enhancing our financial strength. So that we can have the financial capacity to do actions that will improve the timing of DPU in the share price. I think that's something that we are totally focused on for 2024. Yes. Thank you.

Y
Yu Qing Chen
executive

So we hope there has been a thoughtful discussion and you have managed to obtain a better color on our operations and outlook. So thank you all for joining us for the call, and have a good day.

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