First Time Loading...

Medmix Ltd
SIX:MEDX

Watchlist Manager
Medmix Ltd Logo
Medmix Ltd
SIX:MEDX
Watchlist
Price: 15.1 CHF
Updated: May 2, 2024

Earnings Call Analysis

Q4-2023 Analysis
Medmix Ltd

Successful Growth Trajectory Amidst Adversities

medmix, despite a volatile environment, celebrated a year of record group revenues and operational excellence. The company, proud of its team's achievements, highlighted positive revenue growth both reported and organic. These successes were joined by significant increases in adjusted operating net cash flow, underpinning the company's structural financial prowess.

Diverse Performance across Market Segments

The Drug Delivery and Surgery segments emerged as stars with double-digit organic growth, setting revenue records. On the flip side, the Dental segment struggled with a 13% revenue decline due to destocking effects, although there's hope for normalization of order patterns in 2024. The Beauty segment closed the year on a strong note, propelled by innovation and strategic acquisition in China, which promises continued growth. However, the Industry segment faced a 10% dip organically, but retained and even attracted new business.

Investments and Innovations Fueling Future Growth

Embarking on strategic investments, medmix's new Industry plant in Spain is now fully operational, enhancing production across its full product range. R&D yielded Healthcare innovations like ZerofloX, while the Beauty segment introduced the sustainable Micro Bristle Applicator. These initiatives are expected to bolster medmix’s market positioning and underline its commitment to sustainability, having significantly reduced the company's carbon footprint.

Financial Resilience in the Face of Margin Pressures

Despite flat business area gross profit and margin decrease due to product mix and increased production costs, the company managed to maintain a healthy adjusted EBITDA. Looking ahead, with improved efficiency and a fully operational plant in Spain, profitability is predicted to rise, particularly in the second half of 2024. Price hikes, however, could not fully counterbalance the lower volumes in certain segments, highlighting the challenges faced in Dental and Industry.

Optimistic Revenue Growth and Margin Recovery for 2024

For the coming year, medmix sets its sights on organic revenue growth between 4% to 6%, with a leap in the adjusted EBITDA margin to at least 20%. This ambitious outlook is staked on the revival of the Dental and Industry segments and the assumption of a positive trend shift set for the second half. Nonetheless, specifics on the timing of this recovery remain uncertain, and potential impact from dual sourcing in Drug Delivery is an emerging variable that could influence the financial trajectory.

Maintaining BA Margins and Expecting Gross Margin Improvement

Despite the gross margin pressures due to volume struggles, business area margins are projected to stay flat, with a gross margin uptick anticipated from the increase in volumes and operations projects. However, the recovery is heavily anticipated for the latter part of the year, and this rebound will be crucial for achieving the at least 20% adjusted EBITDA margin target.

Uncertainties and Considerations for Investors

While the company has laid out strong foundations for growth, investors should note medmix’s recent volume challenges. Benchmarking against the average market growth of around 2%, the company's targeted volume growth is robust, yet dependent on uncertain recovery timings. The second half of 2024 is believed to be indicative of the margin norm, and the impact of dual sourcing on Drug Delivery, though unquantifiable now, is an element to watch, with unfolding effects potentially stretching into late 2024 or beyond.

Earnings Call Transcript

Earnings Call Transcript
2023-Q4

from 0
Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the medmix Full Year Results 2023 Conference Call and Live Webcast. I'm Sacha, the Chorus Call operator. [Operator Instructions] And the conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast.

At this time, it is my pleasure to hand over to James Amoroso, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

J
James Amoroso
executive

Thanks. So my name is James Amoroso, Head of Investor Relations at medmix. I'm joined by Girts Cimermans, our CEO; and Jenni Dean, our CFO. In the interest of brevity, we will assume that you have read the disclaimer on this slide regarding forward-looking statements.

And with that, I will hand over to Girts.

G
Girts Cimermans
executive

Thank you, James, and good morning, everyone. I'm very pleased, together with Jenni Dean, our CFO, to update you on medmix's progress in 2023 as well as give you some insights into 2024.

First of all, I would like to say I'm very proud of our team's achievements over the past year, delivering record group revenues and excellent operating performance in an ongoing volatile environment. I want to take the opportunity to thank them for their ongoing loyalty and hard work.

On Slide 4, you can see our key figures for the year. As a group, we delivered positive revenue growth on a reported basis and organically. Revenues of our Consumer & Industrial business area grew in mid-single digits, supporting overall group revenue growth. Healthcare revenues declined as a result of Dental destocking. We also delivered group adjusted EBITDA in line with our revised guidance. You will also see a new KPI on this slide, adjusted operating net cash flow. We have decided to disclose this parameter as it embodies one of management's key operating objectives, along with organic revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA margin. Together, these 3 parameters form the basis of our short-term management incentive scheme. As you see, we were able to generate a significant year-on-year increase in our adjusted ONCF, and Jenni will go into more detail later.

On Slide 5, you'll see the key highlights for the past year. Drug Delivery market segment continued its strong organic growth path, while Surgery market segment accelerated year-on-year in the second half to reach another record. Beauty market segment ended the year strongly even as the pace of product launch activity eased compared to first half. Dental market segment destocking effects continued into the second half, as we explained in October. As Dental end markets are continuing to grow, we expect our customers' order patterns to normalize during 2024.

Industry market segment revenue slowed towards the year-end as consumers were faced with lower demand and higher interest rates. All the while, we continued to invest in our future growth and profitability. Our new Industry market segment plant in Spain is now able to produce our full product range, and our focus is on increasing production efficiency. Our Healthcare growth investments in Atlanta are on track, and the new plant is due to begin operations towards the middle of this year.

We successfully acquired and integrated Qiaoyi into our Beauty market segment, providing us greater access to Asia and especially China, the second-largest cosmetics market in the world. Last but not least, we took a 25% stake in AARDEX, a software-as-a-service company that focuses on mitigation adherence control in clinical trials. AARDEX is involved in Phase I clinical trials, providing medmix the opportunity to engage with Drug Delivery customers much earlier in the product development process.

On Slide 6, you see our record development as a group and by business area. For more details, let's turn to Slide 7. Within the Healthcare business area, Drug Delivery and Surgery market segments both delivered record revenue and strong double-digit organic growth of 19% and 34%, respectively. Drug Delivery was supported by robust device revenue, while Surgery's year-on-year growth was even stronger in the second half at 42%. By contrast, Dental revenue declined 13% as a result of continued customer destocking.

Within the Consumer & Industrial business area, the excellent 17% performance from the Beauty market segment more than offset the expected decline in the Industry market segment. Beauty market segment growth was driven primarily by several customer product launches in the first half, while the decline in Industry was primarily due to the continued unavailability of certain products and the softening of end markets towards the year-end.

Let's look at each market segment in more detail, starting with Dental on Slide 8. On this chart, you can clearly see the different phases of the volatility that COVID injected into our Dental business that is traditionally known for its stability and predictability. First came the dip in 2020 as dental surgeries closed. Then came the positive correction after the pandemic in 2021 and ahead of our price increases in the first half of 2022. Destocking then began in the second half of 2022 and continued into the first half of 2023.

In the second half of 2023, a new phase of destocking began that went beyond the mere correction. Dental market participants throughout the value chain, end users and direct customers began to adopt a new capital allocation focus prompted by higher interest rates. As global supply chain stabilized, holding large inventories and high safety stocks became increasingly unnecessary as well as expensive. So stocks will further reduce.

Given that the Dental end market has continued to grow throughout 2023, albeit at a more modest rate, we expect the normalization of our revenues over the course of '24 as customer inventories reach a new equilibrium. Let's move now to Drug Delivery on Slide 9. We acquired Haselmeier in 2020 when we consolidated just 3 months. Every year since then, we have delivered record sales, and last year was no exception. This ongoing solid growth reflects our strong device revenue and project acquisition. The first D-Flex pens were delivered by our launch customer for its generic drug in Q4 2023. D-Flex was chosen for its unique benefits.

The PiccoJect platform is also fully ready. We carried out 3 human factor studies last year comparing PiccoJect to other devices. And what we have seen is an overwhelming end-user preference for PiccoJect. In particular, its small size makes it easier for patients to hold the device and administer the drug, yet the syringe size is just as big as a competitor product.

We also launched a brand-new product called SicuroJect at the Pharmapack trade show in Paris last month. I will discuss this later with other group innovations. In 2024, we expect a reduction in the overall rate of growth for the Drug Delivery market segment as a result of a dual-source strategy of a key customer.

Next, on Slide 10, we turn to the Surgery market segment, which delivered strong double-digit, year-on-year organic growth and all-time high revenues. Apart from a robust underlying end-market growth, a key driver of the market segment has been the successful conversion of tissue banks from traditional bulk bags of allograft to medmix delivery devices. Our delivery system is more convenient for surgeons driving its popularity. As we look into 2024, we feel confident that this market segment's strong growth will continue.

The Beauty market segment, on Slide 11, delivered exceptionally strong growth in 2023 and achieved its highest revenue since 2018. The market segment's organic growth of 17% was far above the market and driven by innovation. The first half of the year benefited from several customer product launches, which had previously been put on hold due to COVID restrictions. As we indicated last July, growth moderated in the second half, but remained strong and at least in line with its end markets.

Through our innovative Micro Bristle Applicator, we successfully entered new cosmetic fields outside medmix's core eyelash applications. Our acquisition in China, Qiaoyi, added CHF 17 million of revenue and around 12 percentage points of market segment growth. Qiaoyi's product range complements that of GEKA and gives us access to the fast-growing and dynamic Asian and China markets.

In 2024, we expect Beauty's growth to continue, though at a more moderate pace, driven by ongoing customer launch activities as well as our own initiatives. The market segment will also benefit from the full year consolidation of Qiaoyi.

The Industry market segment, on Slide 12, declined organically by 10% year-on-year. The market segment was impacted by the effects of the relocation of production from Poland to Spain, the unavailability of certain products and the softening of end markets. Despite these constraints, the market segment retained all customers and even gained new business.

Looking at the main end markets, the transportation sector performed well throughout 2023, fueled by EV and specialty transportation as well as a recovery in aerospace. The construction sector started the year well, but slowed down in the second half of the year. The electronics sector was soft throughout the year, but saw an uptick in mobile phone shipments in the final quarter.

It is unclear when the electronics and construction end markets will return to growth in 2024. We nonetheless expect a progressive recovery of our revenues, thanks to our new production facility in Spain, which I shall discuss on the following 2 slides.

On Slide 13, you can see pictures from the grand opening ceremony in November last year to which we invited all our key customers. As you might remember, in May 2022, we were forced to suspend operations at our manufacturing site in Poland. Thanks to a superhuman group-wide effort in May 2023, we produced the first test parts. And in the fall, we started commercial shipments from a new factory in a new country with a new workforce.

On the left of this slide, you can see 2 gentlemen looking very happy and proud with justification, I might add. They are our Head of Industry, Roman Thoenig; and Multi-Site Operations Lead, Sebastian Madej. Sebastian previously managed the factory in Poland and brought his entire senior team with him to Spain to set up the new facility.

It still impresses me today that the factory we leased in January 2023 didn't even have a floor. And yet, by the end of June, we were already running full-scale production trials. Today, our new plant is now fully operational and able to produce the complete range of products for all our customers.

On Slide 14, you can see the injection molding, assembly and packaging of different components, as well as some of our 200 new fully trained production employees. The new plant uses technology that can optimize effectiveness and efficiency on an ongoing basis. Over the coming year, our focus is on increasing production efficiency and improving profitability.

In 2023, our R&D and marketing teams have been busy developing new products to drive medmix's future growth. I would like to highlight a few examples on this slide and the next. The first slide, 15, shows 2 Healthcare innovations. In September last year, we launched ZerofloX, a unique, innovative micro-applicator for dental end markets that uses an estimated 830 million applicators annually. ZerofloX bristles are injection-molded, avoiding the use of fibers that can contaminate the treatment area.

Two things make ZerofloX stand out. Firstly, it is the true -- first true innovation in this traditional category for many years. Secondly, it leverages our Micro Bristle Applicator technology, successfully sold in the Beauty market segment, underscoring our ability to share know-how across the group. ZerofloX was awarded the 2024 Research Award by Dental Advisor in January this year.

In Drug Delivery, we launched SicuroJect, a passive needle safety device for prefilled syringes. To prevent needlestick injuries, the safety feature is automatically activated at the end of injection. The ergonomic design allows an easy, one-handed activation for self-injection. An optional RFID label allows data on device used to be collected, which can be tracked and evaluated thanks to our collaboration with AARDEX.

These 2 innovations demonstrate medmix's core strengths. We focus on end users, understand their needs, identify the problems they face and leverage our know-how and capabilities to provide an optimal solution.

On Slide 16, we see some examples of innovation from our Consumer & Industrial business area, all of which focus on sustainability. The Beauty market segment has led the way within medmix's push for sustainable products, and we leveraged that expertise across the group.

The first 2 examples show the innovative shadow printing technology. According to our own internal calculations, it allows us to save up to 25% of our CO2 emissions compared to using traditional lacquers. We can save a further 8% by using shadow printing technology instead of hot-fill stamping. The third example shows the world's first food-grade, post-consumer recycled fiber filament for mascara and eyebrow brushes. We are just beginning to explore the myriad of applications for this new material.

In the Industry market segment, we launched 15 new sustainable greenLine products. In May 2023, we added a 400-milliliter, 2-component cartridge system, which uses up to 100% of post-consumer recycled plastic and reduces our CO2 emissions by 38% compared to the old cartridge. Last month, it was selected as a winner in a construction category at the 2024 BIG Innovation Awards presented by the Business Intelligence Group. In addition to 13 other greenLine cartridges, we launched an adhesive dispenser, which uses over 45% post-industrial recycled plastic.

On Slide 17, I would like to highlight our sustainability achievements in 2023 in the areas of planet, profit and people. We achieved an almost 70% reduction in medmix's own carbon footprint versus where we were in 2019 and a 10% year-on-year improvement in energy efficiency. We continuously aim to broaden our offering of sustainable and PCR-based products. For example, we launched 20 new sustainable products in 2023 compared to 5 products the year before. We closely monitor our operations and our entire supply chain, and no cases of child labor or forced labor were identified in 2023. We succeeded in increasing the proportion of women in management roles by 4 percentage points to 33% in 2023.

I mentioned earlier how the Beauty market segment is leading the way in sustainability. Of the 7 plants receiving EcoVadis sustainability awards last year, it was our Beauty plant in Bechhofen that again are in the platinum rating, ranking it amongst top 1% of all factories worldwide. We reached a new milestone by being accepted into the United Nations Global Compact. Our first act was to sign the 7 United Nations Women's Empowerment Principles.

Our management of climate change was rated by Carbon Disclosure Project with a B in 2023, well ahead of our 2025 target, recognizing our coordinated actions on climate issues. We're now well advanced in our path to net zero and aim to have set Science Based Targets to reduce emissions by the end of this year.

With that, I will hand over to Jenni who will take you deeper into the drivers of our 2023 performance.

J
Jennifer Dean
executive

Thank you, Girts.

In 2023, as seen on Slide 20, we delivered double-digit growth in 3 market segments, compensating the lower volumes in Dental and Industry, resulting in 1% overall organic revenue growth for the group, in line with our guidance. Business area gross profit was year-on-year flat, with the margin decreasing 120 basis points as a result of adverse product mix and higher temporary Industry production costs. Group gross profit and margins were additionally affected by lower volumes leading to under-absorption. This translated into a 12% decline in adjusted EBITDA, delivering a 19.1% margin, in line with our revised guidance.

Adjusted net income and adjusted ONCF, shown here for the first time, exclude nonrecurring items similarly to the treatment for adjusted EBITDA. We use these metrics to reflect and assess the underlying performance of our business. Adjusted net income, in addition to the factors just discussed, is impacted by the increase in financial costs this year.

Adjusted ONCF increased 9% year-on-year, demonstrating strong discipline and underlying business performance. This is especially true given the higher level of capital expenditure, driven by our growth investments in the new plants in Valencia and Atlanta. Given our lower net income and higher levels of CapEx, we are pleased to have achieved a positive free cash flow for the year. Our debt coverage remained at comfortable levels.

On Slide 21, we see that Healthcare business area gross profit declined by 5% year-on-year, though remained above 2021 levels. The business area gross profit margin has remained stable over the past 3 years at around 61%. The Dental segment represents 60% of Healthcare revenues, so the lower volumes here due to destocking have put pressure on gross profit over the past 18 months. We expect customer destocking in Dental to unwind over the course of 2024, although the timing remains unclear. As soon as order patterns normalize, we will see an overall improved product mix and profitability within the business area and the group.

On Slide 22, we see the Consumer & Industrial business area gross profit increased by around 4% year-on-year. The adverse product mix and temporarily high cost of production within the Industry segment led to only a slight decline in gross profit margin. We expect margins to improve progressively during 2024, thanks to increased volumes now that our full Industry product range is available, and also to improve efficiency as we ramp up production in Valencia. The improvement will be heavily skewed towards the second half of the year.

Our adjusted EBITDA of CHF 93.1 million was impacted by lower volumes in Dental and Industry and temporarily higher costs in Industry, resulting in a 12% decrease year-over-year. The adverse change in product mix through lower Dental volumes led to a 300 basis points decline in adjusted EBITDA margin. We expect group profitability to improve in 2024 skewed towards the second half.

On Slide 24, our year-on-year adjusted EBITDA bridge highlights that price increases were not sufficient to offset the volume shortfall in Dental and Industry and the impact of margin and mix of lower Dental volumes and temporary Industry-related costs. In 2023, as planned, we saw an increase in operating expenses related primarily to the final buildout of our new stand-alone organization. The acquisition impact of CHF 6.5 million reflects the net contribution of Qiaoyi and Universal.

To better demonstrate our underlying performance, we have shown margin and mix as well as operating expenses net of the nonrecurring and nonoperational costs. In the note below the chart, you can see the breakdown of key items for 2022 and 2023, which relate primarily to the Industry market segment recovery plans.

Moving now to Slide 25. As just mentioned, nonoperational and nonrecurring costs relate primarily to the Industry segment recovery plans, and you can see these continued to put pressure on reported EBIT and net income in 2023.

Slide 26 highlights our robust operating cash flow of CHF 56.1 million, which was 18% higher than in 2022. The most notable item in the walk here to free cash flow of CHF 3.4 million is the impact of capital expenditure, 2/3 of which relate to our new Healthcare plant in the U.S. and new Industry plant in Spain.

Slide 27 shows the walk from free cash flow to adjusted operating net cash flow, which, as previously mentioned, is one of our 3 internal short-term operating targets, along with organic revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA margin. We first take free cash flow then eliminate interest, financial and tax items to arrive at operating net cash flow. Afterwards, we adjust for nonrecurring, nonoperational items, the same way we do for adjusted EBITDA. This provides us a clear assessment of underlying business performance.

On Slide 28, we see the year-on-year adjusted ONCF walk. This shows where the management has run the business effectively. In 2023, under difficult circumstances, we generated an additional CHF 8.5 million of adjusted operating net cash flow compared to 2022, representing an increase of 9%, even with roughly CHF 15 million of additional CapEx year-on-year.

That's all from my side, and now Girts will discuss our outlook.

G
Girts Cimermans
executive

Thanks, Jenni.

For 2024, we expect year-on-year organic revenue growth of between 4% and 6%, and an improvement of our adjusted EBITDA margin to at least 20%. The Dental and Industry market segments represent major swing factors in our shorter-term growth and profit recovery. There is still uncertainty around the timing of this recovery, with our current assumption being a trend change in the second of the year. Of course, an earlier-than-anticipated recovery in Dental sales volumes would provide upside potential to our margin guidance.

Our longer-term ambitions are unchanged based on solid market fundamentals. Given the various challenges medmix has faced during the last 2 years, we believe it is prudent to focus on the commercial rebound and key operations projects and to revisit our midterm targets when the rebound of the business is confirmed at the year of 2024.

That is the end of the presentation. Jenni and I will now be pleased to take your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Rafaisz, Patrick with UBS.

P
Patrick Rafaisz
analyst

I have a few questions. The first would be on the EBITDA bridge for 2024. Can you walk us through the main items here? How much would be, let's say, the phaseout of temporarily higher production costs? How much was an improving mix add in the second half of the year, et cetera?

Then the second question is on the midterm targets. You mentioned you will be revisiting them at the end of '24. How should we think about that? Is that maybe more rolling forward? Or are you maybe more conservative on the growth outlook or the margin ambitions you had initially? Then the third question would be the impact of the dual source on the Drug Delivery revenues. Can you quantify that approximately?

And then the last question -- sorry for that, it's a lot. Industry in Spain, can you talk about the customer retention there, right? I mean I know last year, there were some dual sources, customers switching maybe to alternative solutions. How well do you think will you be able to recapture all of the lost revenues here from Poland?

G
Girts Cimermans
executive

All right. Thank you, Patrick. So I'll start with the -- probably questions 2 to 4, and then Jenni will comment on the EBITDA. Look, when it comes to midterm targets, our long-term market fundamentals are essentially unchanged. So we are working in narrow niches with strong underlying macro trends. So nothing has changed there. So we believe still in our long term -- our mid- to long-term ambition of 8% CAGR and 30% EBITDA.

But as I said earlier, there's been a couple of events over the past few years impacting mix, making us move factories, impacting profitability. And if you look today at our profitability of 19%, it's kind of a big step to 30%. So what I'm trying to say is that we're going to watch the rebound this year, we're going to focus on operational efficiencies and we're going to recalibrate how long a time it might take us to get to the 30% ambition. But fundamentally, that remains unchanged.

When it comes to dual source, we cannot disclose you any specific numbers because simply, we don't know. Yes, it's very early in the ramp-up of the second source. It all depends on -- pretty much on the efficiency and their ability to scale up manufacturing on their side.

And when it comes to the Industry and the factory in Spain, we've had pretty good track progress on getting the customers or getting products, certain products from customers back to our factories. And one thing that we have noticed in that process is that the ramp-up is a little bit slower time-wise.

And that's related to several facts, because our customers probably need to readjust their supply chain with their fillers, change some settings in the filling, gradually remove the current product or sell out the current product replaced with our product. So that takes a little bit of time. But so far, we see a very healthy return of these products that we were not able to ship when the plant in Poland was shut down back to our plant in Valencia.

Jenni, do you want to comment on the EBITDA bridge?

J
Jennifer Dean
executive

Sure. So thanks for the question, Patrick, but not so surprising because I think this is an important topic. If we think about the EBITDA walk or the margin -- EBITDA margin walk year-on-year, our BA margins are going to remain relatively flat. They're not being the challenge for us.

Our gross margin will improve because under-absorption will improve with volume and with the operations projects we've launched. But as we have said, the volume is skewed heavily to the second half, so there will still be a higher than prior level of under-absorption next year.

So I think at 20 -- at least 20% for next year, it's all about the volume. I mean for us, this has been the challenge over the last 2 years. We have nothing fundamentally wrong with our footprint, our operating model or our end markets, we've really struggled with the volumes.

And so if you think about 4% to 6% volume guidance, the average markets are around 2%. So it's really down to the timing and the extent of the recovery in Industry and Dental, it's as simple as that. I'd love to be more specific, but I think this is all we can say at this point.

P
Patrick Rafaisz
analyst

Just 2 quick follow-ups. Would you say, Jenni, that the H2 margin is a good proxy for H1, how you start the year? And then for Girts, on the Drug Delivery dual source, I realize you can't quantify further, but would you say this is a '24 event? Or depending on ramps, could this spill over into '25 as well with some remnant impact from dual sourcing?

G
Girts Cimermans
executive

All right. Jenni, you want to take the first follow-up?

J
Jennifer Dean
executive

I think it's a fair proxy on the margin.

G
Girts Cimermans
executive

And regarding dual sourcing, it's very hard to say. Yes, it's -- we're very first days of the dual sourcing, and time will show. I really do not want to speculate on that at this stage.

Operator

The next question from the phone is from Alessandro Foletti with Octavian.

A
Alessandro Foletti
analyst

I also have 4 questions. I think Patrick had 4, so I also make 4. You mentioned the operating costs in sales and other costs. Can you give an indication if this is like the new normal?

J
Jennifer Dean
executive

Yes, I would say that is the new normal. I mean we have PPA amortization from our new acquisitions in there. We have a higher level of salary inflation overall, which is a global phenomenon. So -- and then we have the new structure now in place with things like the corporate functions and our IT infrastructure. So yes, I think we're stabilized.

A
Alessandro Foletti
analyst

And would you estimate it more -- a new normal in terms of absolute numbers or more in terms of percentage of sales?

J
Jennifer Dean
executive

Yes. I would say, absolute number with the more normalized inflation going forward.

A
Alessandro Foletti
analyst

Right. So the percentage of sales should decline a little bit and maybe in absolute kind of stay there or go up slightly. That might...

J
Jennifer Dean
executive

That's the normal concept, it's improving operating leverage, you're right.

A
Alessandro Foletti
analyst

On the free cash flow walk on Slide 26, can you break down the CHF 22.9 million that you say these are not really the operational cash flow and sort of that's not how you should be measured? What are the components there?

J
Jennifer Dean
executive

Sorry, you said Slide 26?

A
Alessandro Foletti
analyst

27, I think, sorry.

J
Jennifer Dean
executive

Okay. So these are the other nonoperating items, that's what you're referring to the CHF 22.9 million?

A
Alessandro Foletti
analyst

Yes, yes.

J
Jennifer Dean
executive

This is the equivalent of what we showed on Slide 25 where we see CHF 18.8 million in the P&L, which is CHF 16 million from Industry recovery, CHF 2 million of M&A and legal and then a small amount for restructuring. So this is just the cash portion related to that number. That's what it is. And it's predominantly the Industry recovery.

A
Alessandro Foletti
analyst

Right. And then the remaining CHF 4 million, what -- can you give an indication of what...

J
Jennifer Dean
executive

Timing of cash. It's just the timing of cash around the Industry recovery items. That's the difference between the CHF 18.8 million and the CHF 22.9 million. That's all.

A
Alessandro Foletti
analyst

And why is this something that is not operationally relevant? I mean, timing of cash recovery or whatever you have, it's normal part of business, no?

J
Jennifer Dean
executive

No, no, it's just when the cash-out happens -- of course. But these items have been things, for example, abnormal and one-off additional warehouse we needed when we moved product and molding machines from Poland to Haag. So these are costs that we would not have invested unless we had the recovery program.

And all I mean from that is these costs started in 2022 and they continued into '23. So sometimes just through the magic of accounting, the provisions may have been booked in advance of the cash-out. So that would be the difference between the CHF 18 million and the CHF 22 million. That's all.

A
Alessandro Foletti
analyst

But this is not something that will sort of fade away automatically as soon as the operational problems you have are not there anymore. So I wonder why introducing such an element in the free cash flow.

J
Jennifer Dean
executive

We're not introducing it, we have...

A
Alessandro Foletti
analyst

I mean I do understand for -- I do understand that, but you introduced that also in the incentive system. You introduced it in sort of in the way you want to look at the business. It -- and while I do understand that CHF 22 million this year, the fact that you're introducing such a framework indicates that you might continue to do so in the coming years, meaning that you will always adjust away certain things.

J
Jennifer Dean
executive

So one thing to clarify, Alessandro, is this has not just been introduced. Ever since we were in Sulzer, we have always had these 3 framework metrics as our operating short-term objectives for management teams. So this is not new. It's just that we had not showed it externally previously. And we decided after consultation to have a like-for-like approach between adjusted EBITDA, which you're all used to seeing, and adjusted ONCF, which is its equivalent.

The second thing is these internal targets are used to assess the performance of our business managers. And so for us, what's very important is that we are assessing people on, a, the things they can control; and b, ensuring there are plans in place to mitigate the impact of things we cannot control that are one-off. And so that's why we're showing it in this way.

A
Alessandro Foletti
analyst

Okay. Understood. Sorry, these were my first 2 questions. The other 2 are much easier, I guess. Can you give more indication about the ramp-up in Spain, where you stand exactly and, let's say, in terms of production capacity, when you will be like fully ready to accommodate all the growth that you will have sort of independently from the market, and then maybe give a further indication on the market on top of that?

G
Girts Cimermans
executive

Right. Okay. Look, in Spain, we are fully ready. So all the injection molding machines are installed. We have a workforce in place. I think the last thing that's still in process or in transit from Haag to Valencia, there is probably like still a handful of molds that need to be transferred there, validated, but those are not the high-volume molds because we moved the high-volume molds and validated them first. And still some bits and pieces of some assembly equipment that needs to be installed in Valencia and tested and tried. So essentially, we are ready in Valencia. We are producing in Valencia already. And basically, that's where we are.

On markets, we'll see. What we see that electronics, if we can judge on the sellout of the handheld devices for Q4 '23, then there should be a rebound. And also logically, if you see what has happened in the electronics market for the past 2, 3 years, all of us were buying devices during COVID lockdowns, and now the replacement cycle comes. So that's why we expect, in the course of this year, a rebound on electronics.

Construction, it's partly seasonal because in the Western world, where most of our products go, winter is the low season for construction. So come spring and warmer weather, so we expect pickup on that, yes. And transportation has largely performed pretty good, and we have no indications of any changes there for the rest of the year.

A
Alessandro Foletti
analyst

So if I understand you correctly, in H1, the numbers that you will present will be not much impacted anymore by Poland transfer and so on, it will be really what the market brings?

G
Girts Cimermans
executive

Transfer as such, no. Yes, it's what the market brings and the volumes that are coming back to us, that have been either with second source or built, packaged in different other containers as opposed to our cartridges. So that business will gradually start coming back and then also market will start to rebound.

A
Alessandro Foletti
analyst

Right. And will you have big works, extraordinary works in Haag to sort of then eliminate the mitigating measures?

G
Girts Cimermans
executive

Yes. We also have some one-off costs in the first half related to moving some of these molds and validation and equipment.

A
Alessandro Foletti
analyst

All right. And maybe my last question is if you can give a little bit more detail about the Dental situation. You sort of -- if I understand you correctly in the presentation, Girts, you said that there was destocking, then it seemed it was sort of finished, but then it started again. Where are we now in the process? And why are you optimistic for H2?

G
Girts Cimermans
executive

Very simple. If you look at our numbers for the past 3, 6 months period, the numbers there do not correspond to the market growth. And if you look at really what has happened in the market, has the Dental industry stopped using restorative materials or impression materials? No. Yes, so what has been happening is that the market actors in the value chain between us and a dentist have been reducing their stocks for lots of different reasons.

First of all, no material shortages, more stable pricing, so hence, less safety stocks needed. Added interest rates makes it more expensive for them to hold higher working capital; so hence, in combination with more stable supply chain, lower stock levels. And I'm positive because the market is still growing. It's maybe not growing 2%, 3%; it's growing 1%, 2%. And we believe that the stock levels across the industry are coming to a level that starts triggering normal or return to normal order patterns.

And right now, we assume that the return will happen starting midyear, sometime in the second half. But we see the numbers, the sellout numbers now for the first 1.5 months of this year. But really, I don't want to base any trends or any assumptions on recovery or anything based on the first 45 days of a year. So it would not be very indicative. Sorry for the long rant, I hope I answered your question.

A
Alessandro Foletti
analyst

No, no, no, that's fine. That's fine. I also had long questions. I have one more, but I go back in the pipeline, unless the pipeline is empty.

J
James Amoroso
executive

Go ahead, Alessandro.

A
Alessandro Foletti
analyst

All right. On Drug Delivery, you had very good 2023, I would say, at least compared to my numbers, almost 20% organic growth like '19, et cetera. Now I'm starting to sort of ramp it up towards the CHF 100 million price target -- sorry, not price target, CHF 100 million sort of objective that you have. Once it was communicated first time, the CHF 100 million should happen anywhere between '25 and '26, et cetera. So at some point, we need to ramp up. Is it starting already in '24? So i.e., can we expect an acceleration and then maybe a deduction because of, let's say, double sourcing or not yet?

G
Girts Cimermans
executive

Yes. What's happening in '24, Alessandro, is that the device revenue will slow down as a result of the double sourcing. But what grows is project work. So we had very -- we were very successful last year in terms of securing new projects for new pens. So that work will come. And that work, of course, will trigger device revenue 2, 3 years or 3, 4 years down the road.

We do have a very healthy pipeline. I believe we have about 20 projects with pharma customers that we are working on right now. And those are big customers, smaller customers for new molecules, for generic biosimilar molecules. So those device volumes will start coming in from '25 onwards. But at the current stage, as we said, we reassessed our ambitions and goals beyond '24 towards the end of the year, and this is when we come back with probably more specifics. And right now, I'll not comment on anything.

J
James Amoroso
executive

Okay. There's a question from the webcast. And again, it's Drug Delivery. The question starts, Drug Delivery saw strong double-digit growth last year. Do we need to invest in order to supply [ significant ] production capacity? And are we able to benefit from the GLP-1 trend?

G
Girts Cimermans
executive

Yes, so thank you. But for Drug Delivery growth going forward, this is why we embarked on setting up the Healthcare facility in Atlanta. So that facility has been planned to accommodate the future device volumes, automation lines, et cetera, injection molding lines that are necessary for the volumes that will come from Drug Delivery. So at the current stage, I do not see anything beyond that, that we will require to invest.

And regarding GLP-1, yes, we do have about 5 projects, I believe, of GLP-1 in the pipeline or in the project portfolio we are developing right now. And that is, again, a healthy mix. There are some new molecules there. There's biosimilars there for autoinjectors, for D-Flex pens and for reusable pens.

J
James Amoroso
executive

Okay. It looks like we don't have any more questions. Operator, can you just verify that?

Operator

I confirm there are no more questions in the queue.

G
Girts Cimermans
executive

Perfect. So well, look, just to wrap up, so to summarize, medmix has had a good traction in our strategic initiatives. We have successfully completed the construction of Valencia plant. We're on track, on target, on time lines, on budget for Atlanta. So we're building for our future.

When it comes to '24 -- '23, we had strong performance in volatile markets. 3 out of our 5 segments were growing double digits. And for this year, we expect Dental and Industry to turn back to growth and then leading rebound, both in total medmix revenue growth and also in profitability.

So with that, so thank you very much, everybody, for dialing in, and have a good day.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded. You may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye.

All Transcripts

2023