Nibe Industrier AB
STO:NIBE B
Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2023 Analysis
Nibe Industrier AB
The company's executive expressed confidence in the company's robust financial health and prudent investment strategies. Despite the inability to provide precise future predictions amidst a challenging and evolving economic landscape, there is a firm conviction that the company will not only endure but also strive to be at the forefront, outperforming the average outcomes of the industry. This resilience stems from a foundation built not on subsidies, but rather the realistic approach of consumers towards energy efficiency and environmental impact, including the adoption of the company's heat pump technology.
Addressing the critical aspect of pricing, the executive adamantly opposes price reductions as a way to stimulate demand, highlighting the paradox of investing heavily in operations while simultaneously eroding prices. The underlying message to the market is one of value rather than volume, with the company upholding a belief that cutting prices without a meaningful increase in sales volume is an unsustainable long-term strategy. The company plans to maintain stable prices, resisting the trend of price competition.
The merger and acquisition (M&A) market is flourishing with a higher number of companies up for sale. However, the executive notes that not all available opportunities are desirable, with some companies on the market due to deteriorating results. The company remains selective, prioritizing acquisitions that are profitable or can be swiftly elevated to a satisfactory performance level. Despite increased availability, the price expectations for high-performing companies have not become more attractive, reinforcing the company's cautious and return-focused M&A strategy.
The company has recently experienced an increase in leverage due to a significant acquisition, but the management team assured listeners that they are capable of managing and amortizing the associated debt without jeopardizing financial stability. They reaffirmed a conservative approach towards large-scale acquisitions, preferring to keep a clear distinction between the acquiring entity and the target company, rather than pursuing mergers.
Predicting future volume growth is challenging, given the strong comparables from the prior year and the current market dynamics, including fluctuating energy prices, high inventory levels at distributors, and regulatory changes. The executive was reluctant to provide specific guidance on volume growth for the upcoming quarters, emphasizing the company's proven ability to navigate through various market conditions and maintain profitability. The historical performance and resilience of the company serve as a touchstone for investor confidence.
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Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the NIBE Q3 report. At our customers' request, this conference will be recorded. [Operator Instructions]May I now hand you over to Eric Lindquist, CEO, please go ahead.
Oh, thank you. Good morning, everyone out there. And, of course, next to me here is Mr. Backman, the CFO as always. So we're going to guide you through the report. And Markaryd, of course, the sun is always shining here. So it's a glorious day. I hope you are sharing that kind of weather in the rest part of the world.Very quickly, we're going to go through the figures and some comments. And at the end, we thought it would be appropriate also to show some of the investments that we talk so highly about. Just picture-wise and a few comments.So the headline is already presented with the continued good sales and earnings performance as we judge it. We know that not everyone would possibly suggest that that would be same -- so good, but that's how it is.Demand has been fairly good, but varying during the period. And very pleasing is, of course, that the delivery performance is back on track. There's been a long haul for all of us in this industry and I think in most industries and really in reality. And of course, the obstacle here is higher interest rates. And we all know the reasons behind those, but that naturally has a slowing effect. And on top of that, we have some political, if you call it indecisiveness, where they don't really fulfill their promises when it comes to motivating people to continue to invest in a sustainable way.And investments, of course, very ambitious and we're going to come back to those, at least presenting them to you picture-wise. We've also been able to acquire 4 companies during the first 9 months, which is more an indication that we are back on track after the pandemic.Just a very quick look at the overall figures. Of course, we typically talk about the whole period, because that's how we forecast. We forecast for the year. We know that every quarter is important, but that's not how you build an industry successfully. You don't build an industry in 1, 2, 3 or 4 quarters. In our case, it's taken us 70 years, more than 70 years here in Markaryd. And we have companies on board that have been in existence for more than 100 years. And I would say that's a formidable team that we have gathered during those years. And we are so proud to present the growth and also a gross margin that is better than the previous period. And also an operating margin that is fairly substantial, at least in our world.And you see some remarks there because last year, the last period in 2022, we had some incomes and some divestment, that took us a little bit offside when it comes to figures to be compared.If we just look at the course itself, we've had a growth of a little bit slower than the previous period with some 15% of the gross margin, which is a good thing. Of course, that's kept up. And the operating margin is also better than the previous period last year. And if we then dive into the diagram that we always look at, we can see that we continue to grow. And the Q3 is a little bit of a difference. You can say a difference would be slightly higher than the previous quarter. That's an indication that the interest rate hikes, particularly have taken their toll. But nevertheless, it's a continuous growth and almost approaching the SEK 48 billion as you see there.Also on the operating profit side and profit off the financial items, it's a healthy development. But we also see, of course, that the interest rates are hitting us a little bit more now and the interest rates are, tripled from what they were like only beginning of the year, particularly during the whole '22. But that's something we just have to sustain. We have to live with that. We have to conquer all sorts of challenges. So that's just a chart showing where we are and how we manage the different circumstances in the markets.The distribution of sales there, the Climate Solution is having a slightly higher piece than normal because of its development element, the usual 25 and stores just under 9. And of course, the operating profit is even more pronounced in favor of a Climate Solution where we are almost approaching 80%, whereas the other 2 represent like, 20% or a bit better together.And distribution of sales, we noticed that North America is pretty prosperous at the moment, particularly for Climate Solution and also for element in some instances, but particularly for Climate Solutions. And if you just go into the Climate Solution itself, we comment, of course, in summary that we've had a good growth and productivity has increased because now we receive material on a more normal level. And that means that our customers will also get products more orderly. But at the same time, there is a common market development in many countries. And we've described that it's been an over delivery performance, perhaps during some months. And we all know that and the interest rates of course they hit the market, particularly in the housing.But we can continue, of course, to invest because we believe so strongly in the future for heat pumps. And we're going to come back to that in a few minutes here. And we have also launched a number of very attractive products during the 9 months here, particularly on the natural refrigerant side, but also on the performance side, which we mentioned before. Where our water to water ground source heat pumps are now exceeding clearly a seasonal COP of 6, which means that we are, step-by-step approaching our target of being close to the LED lamp. We don't expect any Nobel Prizes, as we said before, but we think they're going to be very, very difficult for politicians or for customers to deny the product range with that efficiency, if we now believe in solving the climate issues that are so apparent and becoming more and more apparent.So those are mainly the reasons to the better volume and also the increased productivity. Of course, the productivity has been hacking, that's the wrong word anymore, I guess, but it's been stumbling when we haven't had the deliveries from our suppliers, but that's much better now.And just looking at the quarter itself, of course, I'm sorry, Climate Solution, I skipped one picture. The business area itself, it's yeah, 18.5% operating margin is in our books pretty strong. And that is, of course, a reflection of the gross margin being on a healthy level.And jumping into Stoves, we see that it's a switch here. That's why we talk about, varying demands and wood burning, that is really strong here in Europe, but softer for gas fired products and pellet stoves. Pellet stoves is, of course, more a Mediterranean phenomena, where it's been a shortage of pellet stoves. And when they are available, they are very, very expensive. And gas fired products that's more in Britain, their gas prices have been a hindrance for the growth there.In North America, it's more back to the demand before the pandemic, but also there that it's softer, particularly on the gas fired side. We continue to invest. And we also give you a little bit of a hint when it comes to the new programs coming it out. Already this year, we have, of course, launched a product range now more on the electronically controlled side and also when you can control it with your smartphone. And next year, we believe that we're going to launch now the solution for the lower particle emission one. So everyone buying a stove could be more secure that you don't harm the environment.The operating margin has taken a hit due to particularly the variation in demands. And we've had to sort of modify our staffing dependent on that market situation. On the element side, we see that there's also very, very varying. Perhaps I jumped a little bit too quickly from stoves, but the margin, as you saw, was down from 12% to 10.5%. And of course, although we are very quick to react, it takes some months before you are back on the same operating margin track again.On the element side, of course, it's been very varying with the consumer goods taking a hit many, many quarters back and also the semiconductor industry. But there's more due to trade restrictions, whereas the sustainability side has prevailed pretty good so far. We also invest quite heavily. And that's typically when you talk about or when we talk about the world going electrical, like the automotive industry or the truck industry going for totally different solutions. And that's why we have to broaden our presence, footage-wise in a number of factories.Lower operating margin. And that's, of course, due to the variations in the demand product mix-wise. And we try to adapt as quickly as possible. But it takes its toll also here, where you go down or below 10%, which isn't very pleasing. But we do that in a very firm way. We do not stall any R&D costs. We just continue. We continue our investments because we are so convinced that we are on the right track.And elements otherwise, yes, I think that Hans is going to come back perhaps to more detailed figures when it comes to gross margin and stuff like that. So I think that perhaps I'm just about ready there. Then after Hans's comments, I think that we're going to go quickly through the investments. And since I'm now spending like 12 minutes, depending on how many minutes you're going to spend, Hans, and the presentation of investments, I think we're going to allow you to put questions until noon or slightly longer, depending on where we sit, because we also have 2 other sessions here before 1 o'clock.So thank you for listening. Hans, I'll hand over the rudder to you here.
All right. Thank you, Eric. Yes, I'll try to be quick, although we will do some deep dive, so to speak, into some of the numbers. If we come back here to Climate Solutions then, I mean, as Eric said, we've overall had a very strong growth for the first 9 months, where sales have increased by some SEK 5.4 billion or close to 30%. And out of this growth, the majority has been driven by a very good demand for our sustainable products in Europe, but also in North America, which has picked up nicely.And of course, the growth was then topped off a little bit by a portion of both price and currency in there. And as a matter of fact, the growth has actually been slightly better because we have this portion of the divestment of Schultes in there, which is a negative 3.6%. And it's, by the way, 2.3% for the group for the first 9 months. There is no effect in the third quarter.So, thanks to this increase in volume, the gross margin has increased substantially, you can say, coming up from 32.9% to 36.6%, with an operating profit growing by more than 50%. And actually, it's slightly above 60% due to the one offs that Eric mentioned before. At the same time, we have seen deliveries returning to a more normal level. And we've also seen this calmer development in several countries as a result of both increased interest rates and the discussions on subsidies in some countries.And this calmer development is, and the return to normal delivery levels, you can say, is slightly visible here in Q3, where the growth came in at slightly above 17% without the acquisition included. And then again, no further negative effect from the divestment of the former Schultes business. But nevertheless, both gross margin and operating margin have increased versus last year. So, we came in here at a gross margin of 37.1 percentage units, up from 33.1 percentage units, and with a very healthy operating margin there, close to 19%. And on top of that, we have continued with our ambitious R&D and investment programs.In terms of split per geography, there has not been so much movement. North America has gained a percentage unit compared to last year. A slight sign showing that they have developed nicely.Moving on to Stoves, sales grew by 23.8% in total. But of course, a good portion of that was acquired growth, leaving some 6 for the organic growth with a portion, again, of currency in there, of course. Demand for wood in Europe has been good, whereas the demand for gas, especially in North America, has been rather weak. But with that being said, we have been able to increase the gross margin also within the stoves business area, coming in at close to 37.7%, up from the 35.7% of last year. But due to our continuous investments in both marketing and R&D, and some adaptations that we have been making in North America, the operating margin has come in slightly lower there at 10.6%, as opposed to the 12.1%.In the quarter itself, growth came in at 5.2%, which is fully related to the acquisitions that we have made, meaning that there was a negative growth as such in the quarter. Very much related, again, to the gas product, so to speak, in North America. And this has then in turn impacted the gross and operating margin, which have then come down slightly.In terms of split of sales per geography, North America has obviously picked up due to the acquisitions we have made. A year ago, they were at 23% of the cake, and now up to 28%. And movements within the other areas have been very small, or more a consequence of the add-ons in North America.If we then move on to NIBE Element, sales for the first 9 months, they came in at SEK 8.9 billion, up some more than SEK 900 million compared to last year, or close to 12% growth. Out of this, a small portion was acquired, 3.2%, leaving some 8.5%, you can say, for organic growth, of course, supported by currency and some price in there. But in this area, we have for some time seen a decline in demand for consumer-related goods.And also with the North American or U.S. ban rather on semiconductors to China, that's also had an impact, which we, however, believe is more of a temporary impact and something that will pick up again. But at this moment, it is affecting us. And that's why you see a gross margin that has come down slightly from 22.7% to 20.9%. And an operating margin there, which is 8.5%, where we strive for being at 10%, of course.In the quarter as such, all of the growth, you can say, came in at acquisitions. Of course, meaning that the pure organic growth was negative. And this shift again in product mix that I just mentioned has an impact on the gross margin and the operating margin. So, we came in there at SEK 235 million in operating profit down from the SEK 324 million landing and operating margin of 8%. But then, of course, it is a business which is selling to OEMs. So, overall, in comparison to the other business areas, it does have a slightly lower margin.In terms of sales per geography, there has been a shift in a way where North America and the others portion, which mainly is Asia, they have decreased by some 3% units each. Whereas then the Nordic countries and Europe have gained 3 each. It's, again, as we've mentioned many times, our most global business area.If we then leave the business areas and just move on to the group's balance sheet and cash flow statement and financial figures, we've had some movements here. The balance sheet has, of course, grown quite substantially, you can say. Mostly as a result of us bringing these 4 acquisitions on board, where Climate for Life in the Netherlands is the by far largest one. And that has, of course, increased our intangible assets after bringing it on board according to the PPA that we've done. And as a consequence, also the tangible assets have grown from 7.5% to 10.8%. But there's also a portion of growing the inventory there. And what we've done now is to build inventory for finished goods, which we have actually not been able to do before that as a consequence of now being able to deliver again. So it's partly planned, although we're not fully pleased with the level and we'll touch upon that in a second again.On the liability side, it's mainly the long term liabilities, interest bearing ones that have increased as a pure consequence of these acquisitions coming on board. But those of you who have followed us over the years have also seen that we have had an ability to amortize those reasonably well in the coming quarters.Then just quickly looking at the cash flow statement, we've had a very strong cash flow from the operating activities as a consequence of the first 9 months good performance. We've increased those by some SEK 1.25 billion, coming in just about 5%, up from the 3.8%. But then the change in working capital has consumed a good portion of that. And that is, again, the inventory that I mentioned.And then we've continued to invest in our operations, increasing that from close to 1.3% to almost 2.3%. But Eric will soon show you what that has led to. Quite some nice investments, I dare to say.A few words on the key financial figures. Investments, obviously, they have increased substantially as a consequence of both the investments we make here in factories and R&D centers, but also coming from the acquisitions. And since they are communicating vessels, the interest bearing liabilities in relation to equity has taken a jump from some 41% up to 70%. And the net-debt-to-EBITDA has almost doubled from 1.1 to 2. And the equity assets ratio is now at around 44%, down from just about 50%, but well above our target of 30%. So, finally, you can also say that we've gotten to use the strong balance sheet that we've had.Yes, looking at the working capital, it is now 25% of sales, which obviously is not where we want to be. It is a consequence of having sourced, of course, a lot of components during the period post the pandemic, where it was very difficult to get products on board. And also, as I mentioned before, the fact that we have been building finished goods inventory, which we have not been able to do before. But we're, of course, working on bringing this down to our more traditional levels.And all-in-all, I think the last key financial figures have developed nicely. Return on capital employed, slightly stronger than last year. Return on equity close to 18% and getting closer to our target of 20%. And then an increased net profit per share and also equity per share.And by that, before we start the Q&A session, I think you're eager to show some pictures, Eric.
Yes, well, I mean, we don't like to brag, but we read so much about what other companies are doing. And they are more described as phenomena. And we thought it would be appropriate for you following us to know what are we doing. And we're just going to go through a number of the buildings that we have opened up during this year and are in the process of building.Here you see 2 office buildings with some 100 offices on one of the main boats in Markaryd. And if we continue, we are very proud, of course, to talk about the new innovation center, which I think is going to come up here. And that's really a landmark. One of the landmarks in Markaryd now is like 8,500 office building and laboratories with top notch equipment with EMC chambers and sound laboratories. And although, we don't like to show that to outsiders, we can just confirm this is the very best thing since sliced bread. And that's already opened. And of course, there are a few test rates that remain to be installed. But that's not only a landmark. It's also a place where people really, feel comfortable. And that's also an attraction to our company, because to live sustainably, we also have to have attractive buildings and offices and laboratories, factories. And we are demonstrating that in this particular building.If you could just continue very quickly, we won't bore you too much, but just to explain again where we are spending our investments. It's a new heat pump factory in Markaryd next to our older building. And that was built like 60 years ago, but refurbished, of course. And that's another 16,000 square meters. That is now, of course, ready, you know, building wise. And we're just installing the production equipment in here.And if we just continue with a few other buildings in Markaryd, which is the hub of the world, as you know, the new visitor center is not called the White House. But sometimes we almost think it will look like that. It's a new visitor center that's building wise and exterior is almost ready to be opened up in the beginning of next year for education, for product presentation and meeting of any kind, really. And that's a gorgeous building, very much in the same style as the innovation center.Here we are erecting a new building. It's under roof, but it's not ready on the walls yet. That's a new production unit for stainless steel tanks. That's adjacent to the new heat pump factory. And that's to be opened up next year after the summer. And adjacent to this, we're also erecting another building to broaden our capacity for stoves. Going to see that in a little while here, that one, you've seen it. And, of course, that is adding another 13,000 square meters to that facility. And what we don't have on a picture here is the old brick building that we had renovated for heat pump production, but that's done last year.In Ljungby, where CTC is located, we have acquired a building already erected, perfectly suited for heat pump production and R&D center. And we are in and about there now. And that's another 25,000 square meters added. And that's very handy when the building's already erected.In Germany, we were just in the process of starting to erect the building. Then it so happened that a neighbor wanted to divest the building. So the building you see a little bit in the back there, that's adding another 25,000 square meters to our production unit in Deggendorf in Bavaria. And if we just continue with a few buildings here, I'm so excited I'm talking too fast, perhaps.But in the Czech Republic, in Drazice, we've added another 15,000 square meters for the tank production, but also as a platform for heat pump sales in the Czech Republic. And if we swing a little bit further here, I think we're going to come to Britain, where we just opened up a building here beginning of July for Stovax, which is a large entity within Stoves. Brand new, like a few miles away from the old ones. It's absolutely gorgeous. And of course, they're going to mean that productivity is going to be much, much better than in the older buildings that were sort of older and also sort of scattered around in an old industrial area.In [ Swedish ], where we had our heating element business head office, we have a new visitor center and also a new production unit where they used to produce furniture in the old days. It seems like the furniture industry is having or the companies are having difficulties. So here we have another 15,000 square meters, particularly oriented around components for the electric car or vehicle industry.And just a few more slides before we can start the questions here, we're going to land in, I think, Poland. Yes, we started in Bialystok, as they pronounce it, some 20 years ago. And now we have erected another building here, some 30,000 square meters.And finally, I think we have one building in North America, and that is getting ready for the expansion on the components for the semiconductor industry. We opened that one up earlier this year. And that is Therm-X. It's brand new. It's a very, very sophisticated product with machinery that's absolutely unique, at least to our group. So that gives you a glimpse of where we are heading.Our beliefs in the future, they are formidable. And the team that we have on board in 150 companies forms a tremendous strength and spirits, of course. And that's we just wanted to provide you with that because there are so many negative news, wars and stuff, and that we think that is terrible. But there's also hope. And we got to do our utmost to bring sustainability to society. And what we mean with that is to be honest, to be transparent and to be frugal, not to waste anything. We like to hand over to the next generation something that's better than what we got when we came. Thank you for allowing me to preach.
And if I just may add, we try to live as we learn as well, because the majority of the buildings that we have built, if not all, supersede the building requirements in those countries. We meet the building standard goals, meaning that they are very environmentally friendly, you can say. And, of course, equipped with our own products.
That's right.
For cooling, ventilation, heating.
And we pay ourselves. All right. So let's start with the Q&A. That took us like 24 minutes on -- 34 mints. So let's go.
[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from a line of Carl Deijenberg from Carnegie.
So a couple of questions from my side. Maybe if I start on this side and a question around this European political programs that have been under discussion or unfolding throughout this year. My question to you is sort of from a historical standpoint, when we have experienced this previously, how does this timing in demand usually unfold? Because I guess we have some specific dates now where we see some of this sort of subsidies coming into place. I guess, Germany being the most notable one. So would you expect to see a pickup in the money when this comes into effect – from gradual pick-up?
Yes, we're a little bit difficult to hear you, but I'll try to put my input there. Well, the problem is always the subsidies, as we all know, that once they are announced and perhaps I'm too negative to politicians, but it's almost like they don't understand what they're saying. That's also negative, as I said. But we understand that when they like to launch a program, they should have a very specific thought about when you do that.And from the day they launch the program, they should say, as of today, we do that. They should never say in a quarter or 2 quarters, we're going to introduce subsidies because then people are going to wait. And at the same time, we're going to now have programs for 2 years. And it's going to be an over investment period during particularly the later part during that period. So the last 6 months in such a 2 year period, it's going to be phenomenal demand, which means that the manufacturers, they have to accelerate and then de-accelerate.So if they're going to get subsidies, they should do that with a longer term view. And that's why we also comment in North America. They're giving the consumers now a very clear message that we're going to give you 12 years. And that is not only for the consumer, that's also for the industry as such. The drilling for the trenching industry or the installers, okay, now it's for real go.So I don't know whether I answer your question correctly, but it's very difficult when it's stop and go, stop and go. And when we had the terrible war starting and the Russians invaded Ukraine, everything, not only from that sad part, but energy prices were soaring, of course. And all people got so worried. And on top of that, subsidy programs were launched.And then the prices go down and countries say, well, we don't have necessarily the money anymore and everything stalls. Or if it's not stalling, it goes back to a different level. It's very difficult for the manufacturers to sustain and to be there to service property. That's the message we're sending. We attended a meeting in Paris just a week ago on the behalf of the heat pump industry. Would you have the capacity? Of course, any entrepreneur will have capacity given a certain time. But we also have the very clear rules. You can't play soccer with different rules during a match. You have to have permanent, solid rules. Those are long answers to your question. I hope something got clear.
Yes, yes, definitely. That's very well. I had a second question also on this sort of inventory adjustments that you were maybe mentioning a little bit in your report. Just talking about that some installers or distributors are shifting with elevated inventories on certain heat pumps, depending on manufacturing capabilities, et cetera. I just wanted to ask if you could elaborate a little bit on the product categories that you see are being the most effective here. Is it primarily elevated inventories on heat pumps with lower technical barriers, such as air-to-air heat pumps? Or is it sort of a broad-based phenomenon, as you said?
I mean, I understand we are out of thin ice if you criticize things. But I mean, I'm old enough, if I talk for myself, to be able to straightforward. And I think that human beings in general, we try to be very social and nice to one another. But when there's a shortage, when there's a danger, when there's a fire in the cinema, you don't look at all the other people and say, you can run ahead of me. You know, I'll wait until my suit is burning. Everyone is trying to save that little fanny, excuse my language. And that's exactly what we've seen.Of course, the demand is so enormously high. Everyone wants to sell as much as possible. And I'm not saying or we are not saying that the quality was poor when these ones were installed. But the risk of jumping with tremendous increases, it's always a risk that quality will be lower. And these products are going to sit there for 15, 20 years. And we wouldn't like heat pumps to get a bad reputation. Now, it sounds very serious, like needless perhaps. Oh, boy, white flag. We are waving. But what we're saying is for this industry to be prevailing, to be successful, we all have to be very responsible. And we like to have clear rules.And of course, when there was a shortage of heat pumps in the market, then we did not contribute because we had a shortage and we weren't able to produce as much as the market wanted. The market said, well, then we buy something else because the demand is going to be unlimited. But as we all know, that's not the case. What happened was that distributors and wholesalers became overstocked. And now we're trying to digest that as a whole industry.We are not criticizing that the installations were poor, but the risk when you have such a tremendous demand and increase is always that you bring on board people that haven't been properly trained. So you're talking in general terms and long answer again to your question. But I said, period. I don't know if you'd like to add anything, Hans.
No, that's fine.
It's not possible to add anything after that.
Exactly.
And our next question comes from the line of Carl Ragnerstam from Nordea.
It's Carl here from Nordea. A couple of questions from my side as well. Firstly, coming back to the inventory levels in the value chain here, as you said, quite elevated still. How long would you say that it might take to sort of flush out the products in the channel? What's your best guess with what you see today?
Yes, that's now you're going to broadcast my guess. We -- it's impossible, as you know, we all know the figures. And I think our industry, for some reason, has been investigated more than any other industry the last 9 months. It's almost like every day someone said, now I know more than anyone else. So I almost would like to put the question back to you folks, because you seem to know everything every day. And I'm not blaming you particularly now. But it's been like, it's like something I haven't seen during my 36 years in this industry. We've been striving before for being recognized. And all of a sudden, everyone knows everything. But now you ask me to answer those questions. I think that you should know, since you've written so much in your colleagues about how bad things are and how good things are. Excuse me for being so blunt.
No, no, that's fair enough. Okay.
I'm guessing.
Yes, that's fair enough. And you showed a couple of slides of nice production, obviously extremely good in the longer term. In the shorter term, however, how will you manage absorption rates in the production if, as you said, volumes in the market might come down in the short term here? You're bringing up capacity. How will you try to protect margins? Will you implement cost out measures to offset the potential under absorption or how do you square that?
Well, the inventories to this stage is, of course, much more on the component side, which is not very good, as Hans mentioned. And of course, we would have liked to have much more ready-made products, but we have not been able to produce those. So that's why I've been, disappointed in a way. But of course, we have to adjust costs. But in a civilized way, when you talk about sustainability, that's word, if you're not going to use that again, there's also treating people decently. It has to be a balance between what shareholders get and what also how you treat the employees. And we try to be as decent as possible to those.If we have to reduce number of employees, they're going to do be done in a very respectful way. Of course, we cannot build a ready-made goods inventories limitless. But at the same time, we like to have some readiness for the next increase, which is going to come. We know that. And it's a very delicate, should I say, situation where there's been a shortage overstocking. I wouldn't say we are overstocked on ready made products, but of course, when we come to the wholesalers and the distributors, they would like to get rid of whatever they have prior to, buying perhaps or selling what they really would like to sell.So I refrain from a guess there. And I think that we, of course, have a tremendous experience when it comes to curbing costs without being brutal to the employees, because that's really the team that's done all this for us during the years. We cannot, of course, live without some fewer people around if this is going to be prevailing. And we've done that in the past. But that's the last thing we do. Typically, we have companies in different countries, like in Germany, they have a different way of dealing with lesser demand.As we all know, with Kurzarbeit, whatever they call that. And here in the Nordics, we have more like flexible people, like we have a few hired agencies or agencies where you hire them with a fairly short notice time. So we'll be able to cater for this. But of course, we are no wizards, as we said so many times. But we have a legacy of being fairly good when it comes to comparing ourselves to anyone else in the market, not coming out any lesser when it comes to margins and stuff like that. But again, we are no magicians.
And our next question comes from the line of Douglas Lindahl from DNB Markets.
I just wanted to just briefly follow-up there on the previous question. And just to clarify, basically, you're saying that you don't see a positive margin implication for Climate Solution for a potential overproduction here in the short term because the inventories you're building up is not finished goods. Did I just get that right?
Well, first, what we have, if you would look in our inventories here in market, that's too, too many components built up during a period when we also thought that demand would be much bigger. And as we all know, we have not been able to deliver as much as we would like to. And that's a brutal fact. So perhaps you can say that we are saved by that. But at the same time, we have to have some inventories like when we left the fourth quarter last year, we hardly had anything because that was the first quarter where we could deliver.And then, of course, the first 2 quarters this year have been fairly prosperous. And then, you know, a different time started at the beginning of this year. And so we've had struggle. We've been struggling until quite recently to provide the market with products. But we have too much material.
Yes, but just sorry to clarify my question. And I just wanted to get the margin implication from this -- this changed -- change in recent times.
Okay, you mean that now with inventories, of course, we. okay, no, no. So what do you call it? Over absorption or under absorption, whatever you call. I think that that's not -- that's not too worth even mentioning being mentioned so far.
And then coming back to climate in terms of growth, it would be super useful if you could give some sort of indications on the volume component and price components here in the quarter specifically?
Well, could you -- could you please repeat that question?
Yes. On Climate Solutions, the organic growth you report year-over-year. Could you possibly break that out with some indications on pricing and some indications on volumes? I know you don't like to give the firm numbers, but maybe just some indications would be useful.
Well, I mean, price increases just in general terms. We don't -- we don't have any price increases anymore. They took place last year around mid-year. So --
Yes, but the backlog, you're executing on a backlog, aren't you?
Yes, that is that is true. So, of course, the price increase. But don't we mention that that the price increase has had an impact? We do. But he's, of course, looking for a more detailed figure. No, but I think we like to know the color of my underwear as well. No, no, no. That's that. Now, we are beyond what we're going to answer.
I think we said that, the majority is organic growth. But there is a portion of both, price from sort of and also currency in there. And I think the current. All of you have calculated backwards fairly well yourselves.
And just I'm not going to dwell too much on pricing, but just to interpret your answer there correctly, you're not hiking prices further. So as we head into 2024, you're not considering hiking prices for heat pump specifically?
I think that we always mentioned, our strategy has always been to be fair on the price side. Is there a way to try to absorb as much as possibly? Which sounds that whatever Boy Scout or Girl Scout attitude. But we have no reason to jack up prices any further just to increase the margin. We were forced to increase the prices due to the price increases we were for forced upon. So now when inflation is going back, it does. It does, hopefully. I don't think that we would ask for any major price increases. And if we would have to, it seems like they would have to be very sort of small compared to where they've been during the last 24 months or 30 months. I think we are back to hopefully to ordinary situation again where we haven't had any price increases worth mentioning.If you go back to the end of '19, very, very modest price increases. Markets has been working well and everything, of course, hell broke loose 2020 and onwards. And now we believe that things are going to return at least component wise to more normal situation.
Just a final one from my side and I'll jump off the call. And on goodwill testing, have you done that already for 2023 or is to come in Q4?
No, no, we continuously do that, and especially with focus on Q3 and Q4. Yes, for the year end. So we've done a, around here recently, which was a little bit more detailed. And we'll do the fully fledged one now for the full year.
And our next question comes from the line of Viktor Trollsten from Danske Bank.
Perhaps on your comment, Eric, in the report about the European heat pump market, where you mentioned that we could see one or possibly a few coming quarters of more weakness. I guess, if I look at it, it seems that Q3 volumes in Europe are already down, let's say 1%, 2%. So I guess the first question is, you know, is Q3 included in that comment?
Well, as I said before to one of the other folks, you seem to know so much about the market, you write an article almost every day. So if you repeat that question again, I'll try to answer it as good as I possibly can. Please.
Yes. So, I mean, volumes in Europe in Q3 seems to already be down 1%, 2%. So I guess, that is weaker than the good growth that you see ahead. So I guess what I'm after, basically, is how far are we into the weakness that you mentioned, one or possibly a few coming quarters?
Well, I think, of course, I mean, as we know, I think the weaker demand has started during the Q3 and then it won't stop just because it's Q4 and Christmas. And I think that what we also indicate is that when interest rates are being curved, then the enthusiasm to some point will return to the market because the uncertainty is not only bad for investors, but also for the private family or the private investors.Well, okay, can we can we do this now? Can we build a home now? And I think that all the horrors that are described in the newspapers and media is almost like it was a war also in our country. It's very sad that we have a war on our doorstep. But I think that media, if I may call it, they are sort of amplifying the situation is so bad. We try to be more realistic about things and knowing that interest rates will have a dampening effect on the building and which particular month that started. We can't really say, but you see yourself that our growth was a little bit lesser this quarter than it was or third quarter compared to quarter 3 last year. But there's no catastrophe.So we like to send signals that, of course, even if it continues to be weak, another quarter or possibly another one after that, the world won't go under. We need clear rules how to play. And once we get those, of course, it'll be a much more stable situation for everyone. That's what we have to. But if we don't get any help, we have to do as good as we possibly can on our own. I don't know how we can answer that in a different way.
Yes, no, but I think it's fairly clear. But I guess what we're all wondering and we're waiting for your words on the team here. But given that weakness is already into Q3 to some extent, I guess what would be interesting to hear is, is more weakness in a few coming quarters. Does that mean a negative growth or is it just more muted growth in relation to what we all are seeing for the long term?
Well, I have respect for your question, but I think that's not only tactical from our side, but it's also realistically impossible to suggest that they're going to be so-and-so. I think that depends on every week and how people are reasoning and what kind of decisions they're taking. And I think that we've given as clear as possible of a signal in our report. I don't think it's appropriate to dwell more on that.
Fair enough. And if I try to push you a bit more than that, would it be possible to give a similar comment that you gave in the report, at least on the Nordic market? Also, I guess organic growth was close to zero in Q3. So also there, I guess we're already quite far into a weaker market. Just any comments on the Nordic market?
Well, I mean, we can read every day if I'm exaggerating every week how poor new construction is in Sweden. I mean, we are most of us calling in would possibly be living here. And I don't know how many houses going up where you live and where you see. So, of course, that's a very obvious sign that if the National Bank here or a Central Bank, whatever you call it, they've given their clear signal. We like to have people unemployed because we've got to curb inflation.No one talks about the consequences of this. But what they're saying is that we like to have unemployed people because. People are unemployed, then they don't buy. Okay, but these is be straightforward and don't, play hide and seek or going to fight inflation. That in real terms means they're going to make people unemployed. We don't believe that having people unemployed for a longer period will prevail because politicians, they have to survive and they will not be reelected.If they continue to punish people that are right in the middle of their lives, they would like to have new buildings and live in a decent way. So that's why we believe that of a shorter, should I say. Substance of a shorter period, it has to be changed. It has to change. But of course, if you call any as you do, you do that very rigorously and you send out a report almost every day how poor things are. You can talk to the prefab house manufacturers in Sweden and ask them, do you think they're going to increase the house production next quarter? And I'm sure you're going to get an answer. Well, it won't be any, any new blood until we've seen the peak of the interest rates. That was a long answer.
I'm sorry if I may just very shortly on the element business. Negative organic growth of 6% is a quite rare event. If we exclude the more extreme periods, financial crisis, COVID, et cetera. I guess I'm after just any green shoots in an element that we are, sort of, on the bottom of the cycle?
Well, again, it's very difficult, but it's no secret that of course, when the economy gets a little bit softer, they are hit the first, particularly on consumer goods. And they are also the quickest ones out of it, because when the economy gets tighter, you don't necessarily buy a fridge or a cooker or any one of those like goods products. And of course, we are exposed to that market. Whereas the other market, renewable, that has shown a more sustainable, if I may joke with words, profile.And of course, the semiconductor industry, that's a chapter for itself. We have relatively recent operators in that market. And they are, of course, the trade issues between the U.S. and China. There was a surprise to us that, of course, perhaps that hit us the hardest because it's difficult to combat that. And it's also an uncertainty. And now we are into that process because they're going to erect new buildings and new buildings or new factories are erected both here in the U.S. and North America. That's why we feel confident that that market is certainly coming back because that's not due to the interest rate. That's more due to the independence of semiconductor supply. And that is certainly coming about already next year in North America and also in Europe.
And our next question comes from the line of Brijesh Siya from HSBC.
Sir, I have 2 questions. The first one is on the demand side. You helpfully provided color about how things are going and what your expectations are. If I just ask you a little more medium term, you talked about subsidies being one driver of this weakness. Now, the electricity to gas price multiplier has also played a crucial role in it. Now, looking into the future, when you say that the weakness is limited to a couple of quarters, how do you see this dynamic? So your confidence is based upon what the subsidy is getting resolved or do you need more policy decisions to come through? So I just would like to understand your confidence about the market being bottoming out in a couple of quarters time?
Well, it's a very complicated question. When people are being interviewed in general, they always say it's a good question. I'd say, it's a complicated question because then we again have to judge the future. I think that the future is very much linked to the interest rates after all, because that is influencing everyone. If you continue to increase, interest rates, even if those people have had a long term interest rate. That's like 3 or 4 or 5 years. Eventually, they're also going to hit higher rates and even more so perhaps because they've been living in a different world. And all of a sudden they have 5.5 rather than 1.5. And that is not contributing to any good things either, because they know that's coming. And that means that they expect a shock. And we don't believe that's good.So it's difficult to predict whether it's affecting naturally the energy prices and it's difficult to predict interest rates. We believe that the interest rates will arrive at its curve already in this quarter, I dare to say. This is a very personal assumption. When it's going to go down again, difficult to say. But that's going to be a signal to everyone. It won't be any worse. And that's as good as I can judge or we can judge where we are heading future wise. It's impossible to say now we're going to be like 3 months and then everything's going to turn.We believe that they have to be positive signals from the -- what do you call them, the banks again. And they have to be positive signals from the politicians as well. Not necessarily saying now we're going to have enormous subsidies. We believe it would be tremendously good if you got clear rules. How do we curb the CO2 emissions? Are they harmful? Or is it just something that the politicians say in front of a TV camera? Or do they believe that we are in a very, very crucial situation? So really, if they say something in front of a TV camera and behind say, well, God, let's hogwash that with climate change. That's something some people talk about. I don't believe in that.Well, of course, then this is a different ballgame. We believe because until quite recently. We have built our company lesser on subsidies, but more of conviction that people are very realistic about how they affect nature. No one wants to harm nature. That's how our heat pump legacy comes from to be very efficient and be frugal using that word the second time now when it comes to energy resources. So it's a very complicated question to answer fully during 3 or 4 minutes. And I've already taken 4. But we are committed to solve it. But we can't give you very precise predictions. No one can that.And what we wanted to give you the signal in our report is that we're going to prevail. We are strong financially. We are investing our money wisely. If the world is coming to an end, we got to be above the medium of the misery. But we can't stop, the world going in the wrong direction. I'm sorry, not being more clear about it, but that's as good as I can possibly come up with.
All right. Understood. That's fine. And the second question is on pricing. I know in the past you have alluded to the fact that you are not in volume game. You'd rather keep the price stable and your comment about next year price is not going up because you don't see reason. That's fair enough. But when you look at the marketplace, you have so much of this talking to go through a couple of countries at least. How do you see the marketplace is playing out? Are you seeing any pricing competition coming through? And in light of what you have shown as well to us that there's so much capacity from your side coming through and your plan of doubling capacity. So how do you see the pricing environment evolving in the near term as well in the medium term?
That is my favorite question. Thank you for putting that question. That's my favorite, favorite question. And, to decrease prices, I think that's the last thing a serious producer should do, particularly if you invest so heavily, as all manufacturers are saying they're doing. How could you possibly expect a return on your investments if you immediately start to erode your prices? That's unbelievable. Why do we go to universities until we either lost our hair or they've gone gray? And the first thing we do when we get out there is to lower prices. I can't. I don't get that.I think we have to send a clear message to the market because they missed that perhaps term at the -- at the university. If you decrease prices with some 10%, you have to sell 25% more. And if that's going to take you anywhere in the long run, I'd like to have an answer from the universities. How do you combat that? So, of course, they're going to be price increases from some partners for some reason. But I don't think they're going to come home to their show shareholder saying now, will we, you know, reduce prices? Look how good I am. You couldn't send out like a 15 year old student done the same, but without anything added to the bottom line.
Understood. And just one last time I speak in on the M&A side, given the how the market is at this point in time, are you seeing any of the assets which you are targeting are looking more attractive and compared to what it was 1 year back? And how the M&A pipeline looking for you?
The M&A market is prosperous in a way because they're very it's -- it's many more. I may use that and Hans can confirm that many more objects out for sale, not necessarily. Are they all very good? Some are out there because they have a lesser result. We can see that the results are getting weaker and that's not necessarily what the companies that we would like to bring on board.Other categories, companies that have a very great performance and they have the same price tag as they've had before. And if you can't argue or if you can't agree on a multiple that is high enough, they often just refrain from being sold or acquired and they just wait. There are 2 categories and we rely. We typically, as we said in the past, would like to have companies on board to get on board with profitability. That won't harm us or where we can see we can bring it up to a decent level fairly quickly. And we still -- still live with that philosophy. So there are many more out there, but not necessarily are the good ones less expensive. I think that we have. Was that fine for you?
Understand. Understand. That's all.
I think that we have -- we are running out of time here. Should we allow one more question? Okay, one more and then we have to run for another meeting here.
And we will take our final question for today's call. And it comes from the line of Axel Stasse from Morgan Stanley.
I have 2 follow up questions. Thank you very much. Just wondered leverage went up to 2x. Is that a concern to you for potential further acquisitions going forward?
Well, I mean, we know that when we have large acquisitions, then of course, that rate goes up. And you also know how we were able to amortize that fairly quickly over the years. We won't do any nasty things to ourselves by acquiring companies where we would endanger our group to any degree. So, of course, that's a climate for lies is in our group is a fairly large acquisition. They're going to contribute and we are trying to amortize that as quickly as possible.So but at the same time, if there would be any larger acquisition, but then we really talk about large, large. That is Climate for Life is like 10% of the size of climate control, which is ideal size in a way. If we would reason about an acquisition, that would be 3x or 4x. We'd be very hesitant because we have that's not something we've been practicing in the past. We try to make a clear distinction between who is the acquirer and who is the company being sold. We don't like to go for mergers necessarily. We've never done that.
Okay. And then my second question, I know you guys don't have much time. So thanks for taking it. Just my second question, given the strong comp this year, given your comments on falling energy prices, high inventory at distributor level from changes in regulatory reviews, can we actually expect positive volumes in the first half of next year or should we actually expect negative volumes?
Well, it's an impossible question to suggest. We try to if you follow, if you've been following our quarter reports, it's a story being told every quarter. We try to guide you as investors or shareholders. Where are we? What have we achieved? Where are we heading? Try to be as transparent and constructive as possible. It's very difficult to predict what will happen next year, the first 2 quarters, we can't we can't judge that.And, if I would give you 1 sentences -- or 1 sentence or 2 sentences, you would say, well, I have another question. I think that we refrain from that in a friendly way. So it is difficult. But we -- I hope give a fairly positive overall view because we know whatever happens, we can manage and we can be constructive even if the demand is weaker because we are not a 1 quarter, 2 quarter phenomena. We've been there for a long, long time. We've been through a number of issues in the market that have been painful. We always come through. We never lost any money. And that's the legacy that you should sort of have in mind when you evaluate our company. So I think that's the answer you're going to get today.Now, we have to run. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you all for calling in. Have a nice day now.
This now concludes our conference. Thank you all for attending. You may now disconnect.