Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan Holdings Inc
TSE:2579
Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2023 Analysis
Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan Holdings Inc
The company has reported a notable achievement, anticipating a return to profit for the entire fiscal year ahead of schedule. Originally aiming for profitability in 2024 as per their strategic business plan, the company is now set to reach this milestone in the current fiscal year. Third-quarter successes have led to an upward revision in their full-year earnings forecast, with an expected substantial upswing in business income of around JPY 16 billion over the previous year. This increase in profitability is attributed largely to top-line growth from sales revenue, which has grown by 8.4%, and a 4-5% increase in sales volume, emphasizing the company's focus on both cost savings and strategic pricing initiatives.
The third quarter has seen a 10.2% growth in gross profit, surpassing revenue increase, due to effective pricing strategies and other measures. Profit margins improved despite commodity and utility cost hikes and currency challenges. The company's business income saw an immense year-over-year improvement of JPY 17.1 billion, reflecting the effectiveness of the transformation efforts which exceeded expectations. Cost reduction in marketing expenses and enhanced supply chain efficiencies contributed to these results.
A 4% growth in Non-Alcoholic Ready-To-Drink (NARTD) volume year-to-date has been driven by strategic commercial activities and an unusually hot summer. Vending channels maintained volume despite price changes, and convenience stores showed a 4% volume increase year-to-date, benefitting from summer demand. The retail food sector and online sales jumped by 11%, showcasing the company's effective product lineup and promotional strategies. Category-wise, sparkling beverages and water showed robust growth, while tea and sports drinks struggled somewhat due to pricing revisions.
The company's total channel value share saw a slight increase, led by value share growth in vending. Retail price benefits from pricing revisions have become evident, with both small and large PET bottles showing consistent year-over-year growth.
The company has effectively implemented a series of price revisions over the past year, resulting in positive impacts on profitability. These adjustments have been integrated into the market, with retail prices for various bottle sizes revealing a continuous upward trend. These developments underscore the company's capability to execute timely and disciplined price strategies. Moreover, they emphasize the strong consumer and customer reception post-revision, which confirms the strategic direction toward enhancing profitability.
For the full year, the company forecasts revenues to reach approximately JPY 870 billion, a 7.7% upsurge. This increase also translates into a year-on-year 3% lift in annual sales volume which was higher than predicted. A turnaround from an expected loss to an aimed profit of JPY 1.5 billion represents a JPY 16 billion improvement compared to last year, thanks to top-line growth, transformational cost savings, and effective marketing investments. While cost pressures like commodity and utility costs present challenges, the overall business outcome is expected to stay on a positive trajectory, with contributions from various strategic initiatives paving the way for a stronger foundation and sustained profitability within the year and on the strategic path set forth for 2024.
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[Interpreted] Good afternoon. I am Masaomi Gomi, Head of Investor Relations for Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan Holdings. Thank you for joining us today for the third quarter 2023 earnings presentation for analysts and investors.Today, we have President, Calin Dragan; CFO, Bjorn Ivar Ulgenes; and the Coca-Cola Japan CMO, Su Choi. Also joining us today are Executive Officer and Chief Commercial Officer, Costin Mandrea, Executive Officer; and Executive Business Manager, Maki Kado; and Executive Officer and Chief Supply Chain Officer, Andrew Ferrett.Following prepared remarks, we will be happy to take your questions. Simultaneous interpretation in both Japanese and English is being provided for both today's call and the Q&A. Before we begin, let me remind you that today's presentation contains forward-looking statements, including statements concerning annual and long-term earnings objectives and should be considered together with cautionary statements contained in the presentation.With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Calin Dragan. Calin?
Good afternoon, everyone. This is Calin Dragan. To begin, please refer to the Slide 3 of the presentation for today's highlights.My key message today is that we expect a return to profit for the full fiscal year ahead of plan. While our strategic business plan announced in August targeted a return to profit in 2024, the stronger-than-expected results in the cumulative third quarter now indicate we can expect to achieve this in the current fiscal year. We have revised our full-year earnings forecast upwards, expecting substantial upswing in business income of approximately JPY 16 billion versus the previous year, an increase of JPY 6.5 billion from our original plan announced in February.Our year-to-date business income for the third quarter has exceeded initial expectations, primarily driven by a strong increase in profits from top-line growth. It's a significant accomplishment that top-line growth has been the major driver of our business income increase. And in addition to the positive impact of cost-saving efforts, including transformation and cost management measures have also contributed to profit growth.For the top line, our year-to-date sales revenue has grown by 8.4% over the previous year. This growth reflects both increased sales volume and improved wholesale revenue per case due to price revisions. Notably, in the third quarter, our period of highest demand, major initiatives were successful and resulted in a 5% increase in sales volume compared to the previous year, driven by the recovery in traffic and the record-breaking heat wave. Additionally, on a year-to-date basis, sales volume grew by 4%, partly owning a boost in the third quarter.The price revisions prioritized as a key initiative since last year are progressing according to plan. Our swift and precise market execution, coupled with disciplined commercial activities that kept shipping prices stable while minimizing the impact on volume, are yielding the intended benefits of price revisions. Wholesale revenue per case has exceeded double-digit yen growth across all channels. In October of this year, we implemented plant price revisions for large PET products, and we will continue to identify and implement such efforts to enhance profitability.Now let me hand over to CFO, Bjorn Ulgenes, to provide you with detailed results for the year-to-date quarter 3.
Thank you, Calin. Hello, everyone. This is Bjorn. Please turn to Slide 5 for the year-to-date results for the third quarter.Our strong performance in the third quarter contributed significantly to the return to profit for the full year. As Calin mentioned earlier, sales volume grew by 4%, and revenue increased by 8.4%. Gross profit grew 10.2%, surpassing the increase in revenue. This enhanced profitability is attributed to the improvement in wholesale revenue per case from price revisions and other measures. As a result, our gross profit margin has improved. This was achieved despite external factors such as increased commodity and utility costs, as well as the weakening of the yen.Business income reached JPY 5.9 billion, a significant improvement of JPY 17.1 billion compared to the previous year. This was primarily due to the contribution to profit from the top-line growth, including sales volume growth and improvements to wholesale revenue per case. This improvement also reflects the benefits of our transformation efforts, which have exceeded our initial expectations. The drivers of business income will be elaborated in the next slide. As shown on the slide, operating income and net income also displayed substantial improvements.Please turn to Slide 6 to view our primary business income drivers. From the left-hand side, you will find volume, price and mix. This illustrates the year-on-year change to marginal profit from commercial activities showing a remarkable improvement of JPY 30.4 billion on the previous year. This includes the contributions from volume growth due to traffic recovery, a record-breaking heat wave, and improved wholesale revenue per case from price revisions. The initial annual plan was set at JPY 30 billion, but our progress in the year-to-date period for the third quarter has exceeded the initial targets established at the beginning of the year.Moving on to transformation, which has delivered recurring cost savings of JPY 3.5 billion. These savings primarily came from supply chain operational efficiency improvements, including the use of mega DCs. These benefits have also been achieved ahead of schedule. In marketing expenses, there was a JPY 3.8 billion reduction from the previous year. This is the result of cost-effective marketing activities strategically aligned to maximize recovering traffic demand.Manufacturing costs rose by JPY 0.7 billion compared to the previous year. Although we benefited from enhanced manufacturing efficiency due to increased production volumes, the rise in cost was attributed to a shift in consumption trends towards larger packages following the price revisions. Other costs of approximately JPY 11.4 billion greater than the previous year. This increase is primarily due to the prudent investment in growth, which has been restrained during the COVID pandemic. It also includes enhanced investments in human capital and other assets in line with our mid- to long-term direction. This figure incorporates the cycling impact of one-time cost savings of approximately JPY 3 billion achieved in the first quarter of the previous year. Despite this, we are steadily progressing in our cost-saving efforts, including a decrease in logistics costs.Now for commodity and utility costs. These costs increased by JPY 8.5 billion from the previous year. The impact of commodity prices, including ForEx, was JPY 7.3 billion, influenced by the yen's depreciation and higher raw material prices, such as PET resin. In addition, utility costs increased by JPY 1.2 billion, driven by higher electricity costs due to raise crude oil prices. Despite the challenges in our cost environment, our disciplined and profitability-focused commercial efforts are making a significant contribution to improving overall business performance and achieving full year business income profit. This wraps up the main drivers of business income.Please turn to Slide 7, volume performance by major channels and categories. In the third quarter year-to-date, NARTD volume increased by 4% from the previous year. This growth was driven by capturing the increased demand from traffic recovery and the heat wave. Notably, in the third quarter, the effects of our earlier commercial activities contributed significantly during the peak demand period resulting in a 5% volume increase that pushed up cumulative volume. Additionally, wholesale revenue per case improved by more than double-digit yen across all channels driven by the benefits of the sequence of price revisions.In vending, sales volume remained flat compared to the previous year despite the impact of price revisions on can products in May. The market shares foundational activities to date, along with Coke ON smartphone app promotions contributed to capturing demand from traffic recovery and the heat wave. Wholesale revenue per case saw a substantial improvement, increasing by JPY 175 due to swift reflection of price revisions in our vending machines.In convenience stores, despite the competitive environment challenges, the effects of initiatives to secure sales space, such as expanding the introduction of core products to client stores and enhancing customer engagement are becoming evident. The tailwind from exceptionally hot summer also contributed to a 13% volume increase in the third quarter and a 4% year-to-date increase.In the retail food sector, volume increased by 11% year-on-year, primarily due to a recovery in demand from dining out. Online sales volume also saw an 11% year-on-year increase, reflecting a successful strengthening of product lineups and the implementation of effective collaboration promotions with online customers. Most categories experienced growth except for Tea and Sports, which was significantly impacted by price revisions.Sparkling beverages grew by 4%, with growth centered around traffic recovery and strong sales of Coca-Cola in vending and restaurants. Tea was affected by price revisions, but remained flat compared to the previous year, reflecting high demand during the hot summer. Water saw substantial growth of 16%, supported by last year's renewed bottle design and seasonal favorite waters. Coffee performed well, particularly with the Georgia brand renewal and the launch of Georgia the Black as well as contributions from medium PET, which targets at home demand.Slide 8 highlights market share and retail price trends. Total channel value share for the full year grew by 0.2 points from last year. This was led by continued value share growth in vending. For OTC retail prices, the benefits of the pricing revisions are materializing with both small and large PET, exceeding the previous year's levels. Smaller increase in the retail price of large PET compared to the growth of small PET is mainly due to a change in the package mix with increased composition of water. Both small and large PET have maintained their price premiums compared to the industry average. A more detailed overview of the price revisions will be provided later.Let's move on to Slide 9. I'd like to highlight our commercial activities during the third quarter, which is the peak demand period and a significant driver of our strong performance. We implemented various initiatives that capitalize on the recovery in traffic and the heat wave, resulting in robust top-line growth. In the third quarter, we leveraged the foundation built through prior efforts to expand sales space from a medium- to long-term perspective. This included introducing new products and enhancing customer engagements.We seized opportunities created by the traffic recovery and heat wave to execute effective marketing and maximize in-store commercial activities to meet pricing demand. For wholesale revenue per case, we have worked diligently to swiftly and steadily implement price revisions while maintaining shipping prices. This approach maximizes the benefits of price revisions during the peak demand period.In terms of product supply, we have successfully maintained stable operations of the sales and operational planning process, which was revamped last year. We collaborated closely with the supply chain department to ensure a stable supply of products even in extremely hot weather. These efforts in the third quarter yielded positive results with sales volume growing 5%, wholesale revenue per case increasing by more than 70% and across all channels, and revenue showing substantial growth of 9.9% compared to the previous year. Slide 10 is an update on price revisions.Over the past year, the series of price revisions we implemented as our primary measures to boost profitability have yielded the intended positive effects. This was achieved through efficient and consistent market execution along with disciplined commercial activities that included maintaining shipping prices. Retail prices have continued to move in a favorable direction.The left-hand graph illustrates the trend in retail prices for large PET bottles in the OTC channel. As of the third quarter, we've implemented two price revisions for large PET, one in May of the previous year and another in May of this year. As a result, OTC retail price has shown a consistent upward trend. Since the second quarter of this year, prices have further increased from the level established as the previous year's price revisions.In the most recent third quarter, there is evident expansion in the price premium compared to the industry average. In the right graph, you can observe the status of retail prices for small PET bottles in the OTC channel. The price of small PET was revised in October of the previous year. And since then, OTC retail prices have been on an upward trajectory despite some quarterly mix variations. Year-on-year improvements have continued to grow with the third quarter, the peak demand period witnessing the most substantial improvements since the price revision.Regarding the previously mentioned price revisions for cans in the vending channel from our previous earnings calls, we have efficiently reflected these price adjustments by leveraging our operational strengths since May of this year. As of the end of September, the price reflections have been mostly completed. This rapid response has played a crucial role in realizing the early improvements in wholesale revenue per case for vending machines.In summary, our series of price revisions is progressing smoothly. We are also pleased to note that our products continue to be well received by our consumers and customers following the price revisions. This reinforces our belief that our strategy to enhance profitability is the right direction, and it provides valuable insights for our future actions.Slide 11 provides an update of our ESG initiatives. We have anchored creating shared value as the cornerstone of our management approach and are actively working to enhance partnerships with both customers and local governments to achieve this objective. As part of our bottle-to-bottle efforts to increase the use of sustainable materials in PET bottles, we are expanding our collaboration with customers and local governments to establish a scheme to ensure the collection of high-quality used PET bottles.Through our business, we are engaged in activities that directly contribute to local communities. These actions include water resource conservation, providing beverages to food banks, and deploying vending machines to help revitalize local communities.We are also pleased to announce that for the third consecutive year, we have received a silver rating and the internationally recognized EcoVadis Sustainability survey. While more than 100,000 companies were surveyed globally, we were the forerunner in the Japanese beverage industry in taking part in this survey. We believe this recognition is the result of our activities on a global level. We will continue to focus on such ESG initiatives that contribute to mid- to long-term business health.Now let me ask Su from e Coca-Cola Company Japan to take us through the marketing updates. Su, please?
Thank you, Bjorn. Hello. I'm Su Choi from CCJC, and I'm on Slide 13. Today, I would like to take you through a review of 2023 third quarter and highlights of our marketing initiatives in the fourth quarter of this year.Starting with third quarter performance of 2023, the business grew ahead of our market. Our value share in the soft drink market grew by plus 0.2 points, driven by strong growth in the core; key categories of sparkling, coffee, and water. Specifically on water, I LOHAS brand launched a new bottle nationwide last December and continued the strong growth momentum. For the fall campaign, we continue to strengthen the sustainability as a core asset of the brand by not only talking about the importance of it, but to connect and engage the consumers by creating a fun way to support sustainability with I LOHAS through a new campaign with the idea of folding the bottle with your clap. This idea came to life with a famous song, "if you're happy and you know it, clap your hands" made into different content nationwide. The content created with this idea received massive awareness and went viral to recruit new consumers.Moving on to innovation. In September, we renewed Georgia THE Zero, which has been well received since its launch as the Zero-carb, Zero-Sugar product that meets the needs of different consumers. We work to develop a taste similar to Georgia the Latte by utilizing milk Zero Boost technology. Our proprietary technology to express a rich milky taste and smooth sweetness to recruit new users furthermore.In marketing experience, Coke Studio campaign was implemented throughout Q3 as the key campaign for the company as a holistic marketing plan with packaging, promotion, communication, and live experiential concert, all integrated and connected to recruit consumers. In October, we held Coke Studio Super Pop Japan as a co-branded special concert with their partners of local artists like Mrs. Green Apple, Wednesday Campanella, and global famous artists to demonstrate the global campaign scale and impact to the Japanese consumers. Through this campaign, we successfully recruited new users and maximize our summer sales.In addition, we've surpassed and have celebrated the significant achievements of 50 million Coke ON download as of October 23. We continue to leverage the Coke ON platform as a critical and unique asset to further accelerate our marketing transformation, leveraging the data and direct connection to our consumers.On Slide 14, please. Next, I would like to share with you the key initiative highlights in the fourth quarter of this year. Coca-Cola brand has launched its winter campaign at the end of October to fully leverage the Christmas asset that only Coca-Cola can offer in order to strengthen the key occasion of meals. We launched a limited-edition winter design bottle with Coca-Cola Christmas ornaments and are conducting a promotion that customers can apply with a QR code on label to expand the user base. AQUARIUS started a winter campaign in October, aiming to increase the number of drinkers and hiking occasion during the winter season by emphasizing the importance of hydration, even during winter season, with holistic plans delivered in stores.One of the key priorities of this year was the full relaunch of Georgia brand with new brand logo product and positioning under a new recruitment strategy. To continue the growth momentum on Georgia, we will continue to recruit and engage our core consumers by providing new experience through Georgia, my original bottle caravan, which is a caravan activation, giving your own customized original label with their animation photo on the bottle to continue to engage with the consumers.That's it from my end, with our mission to refresh the world, make a difference, we will continue to pursue to deliver refreshing moments and make a positive difference through our brands. Now I hand it over back to Calin.
Calin here again. Thank you, Su, for your presentation. Slide 16 outlines our upward revised full year earnings forecast.With the upward revision of the full-year forecast, we are aiming to achieve a return to profitability this year ahead of the 2024 target outlined in the strategic business plan announced in August. Throughout this year, we have placed great emphasis on improving profitability, designating it as our year of profit focus. Our efforts are showing results. The key points of the revised forecast are presented in the slides.As Bjorn outlined, the third quarter year-to-date results have been driven by profit growth stemming from the top line growth with business income significantly surpassing the original plan. Particularly strong traffic recovery and heat wave has been a key factor driving in profit growth. Additionally, price revisions, considered a vital initiative for improving profitability, are generating the intended effects. We have successfully minimized the impact of volume declines during this peak demand period. Furthermore, our transformation efforts are ahead of schedule already exceeding our annual target.In the fourth quarter, we expect the trend in fundamentals, the underlying business performance to remain strong. Looking ahead, our plan incorporates the impact of upfront investment for sustainable growth. We have assigned appropriate investment in marketing and human resources to further enhance employee engagement previously restrained due to the business environment under COVID. In addition, we will continue to focus on measures that will lead to improved future profitability. This includes the steady execution of price revisions for large PET products in October as well as further disciplined commercial activities.Building on the positive trend observed up to the third quarter, we will use the fourth quarter to lay the groundwork for sustainable growth in the coming years. Our focus is on ensuring a return to profitability for the full year and further strengthening our business foundation.Please see Slide 17. This is the P&L for the full-year plan for 2023 following the upward revision. For the full year, we forecast a 7.7% increase equivalent to JPY 62.5 billion growth, resulting in total revenues reaching approximately JPY 870 billion. This represents a 2.7% increase or JPY 22.8 billion more than the original plan. And the record-breaking heat wave during the peak demand season and other factors have contributed significantly to the forecasted 3% year-on-year increase in annual sales volume, surpassing the initial forecast by 4%.Originally, the full year business income forecast indicated a loss of JPY 5 billion at the start of the year. However, with this upward revision, we are now aiming for a profit of JPY 1.5 billion, marking an increase of approximately JPY 16 billion compared to the previous year. This represents a revision of JPY 6.5 billion from the initial plan at the beginning of the year. More details on the drivers for the business income can be found on the next slide. Operating income and net income are also expected to return to profit from a significant increase in business income.Slide 18 shows our primary business income drivers. For the full year, we project a business income increase of approximately JPY 16 billion compared to the previous year, marking an upward revision of JPY 6.5 billion from the plan at the beginning of the year. The primary reason for the substantial increase in business income comes from top-line growth. The profit contribution from top-line growth is expected to offset cost pressures and pave the way for a return to profit.For the volume, price, and mix impact on the left, we have revised the expected improvement from the initial JPY 30 billion to JPY 34 billion, considering contributions to up to the third quarter. Volume growth is expected to exceed the initial forecast due to factors such as the record-breaking heatwave. The effect of improved wholesale revenue per case resulting from successful price revisions has also been incorporated based on recent performance. Additionally, recurring cost savings from the transformation are being realized ahead of schedule, particularly in the supply chain and are expected to contribute JPY 3.8 billion to full-year profit.Up until the third quarter, we managed costs and maintained promotional expenses below the previous year's levels, even as volume increased following the principle of making effective and efficient marketing investments. However, in the fourth quarter, we plan to make marketing investments that will strengthen the foundation for sustainable future growth. And as for manufacturing, while we will benefit from productivity improvement due to the increased volume, we expect a negative impact of JPY 1.7 billion, close to our original plan, due to factors such as the package mix.Other costs are expected to increase by JPY 12.4 billion for the full year, higher than initially projected. And as previously mentioned, we will make appropriate investments aimed at future growth, such as investments in human capital. Although commodity and utility costs are expected to deteriorate by JPY 8.9 billion versus the previous year. The extent of the impact is anticipated to be less than initial expectations. Market impacts related to commodities and foreign exchange will persist, but utility costs are predicted to decrease compared to the initial forecast due to extended government subsidies. These are the main drivers of business income in the revised plan. Finally, please refer to the Slide 19 for our summary.Once again, I want to emphasize that we expect a return-to-profit for business income this year, a goal originally set for 2024 in the strategic business plan. This achievement not only marks a significant milestone but also in stills in us great confidence as we embark on our strategic business plan. I'm particularly pleased to see that the growth foundation we have established through ongoing transformation, even in a challenging environment in our profitability-focused business activities this year has resulted in substantial growth in sales revenue and profit.During the past financial results briefings in challenging periods, I emphasized the importance of building a growth foundation and promoting transformation to capture increased demand when traffic returns. This approach allowed us to maximize the demand resulting from the recovery in traffic and extreme heat wave, leading to direct top-line growth and increased profits. This year, we prioritized price revisions as the most crucial measure to enhance profitability. Now, their effects have been realized as planned, and we have gained valuable insights for the future.In the beverage industry, where cost pressures persist, we once again recognize that price revisions can be an important option for improving profitability. Based on these lessons learned, we will consider all options more extensively than before, aiming to implement further price revisions within 2024. We were the first in the industry to implement price revisions last May, and we feel that this was the right decision and once again, we strongly believe that the direction of our strategy is the right one, and we will continue our efforts to improve profitability.With less than two months remaining in this year, we will continue to execute this year; focus on profit principle for the remainder of the year. By achieving the full-year earnings forecast, which has been revised upwards, we return to profit ahead of plan and by making sound preparation for the next year and beyond during this period. We will make a strong start for 2024, the first year of our strategic business plan. That concludes our presentation today. Thank you very much.Now let me invite back Gomi-san to take us through the questions and answers.
[Interpreted] Thank you, Calin-san. After following Q&A session is for analysts and investors only. Members of the media are asked to refrain from asking questions at this time. We will hold a separate media Q&A session later today. Simultaneous interpretation is provided. So please keep your question one at a time.So, I would like to start the Q&A session. Operator, please begin.
[Operator Instruction] The first question is from Ihara-san, UBS.
[Interpreted] Thank you very much for the presentation. This is Ihara-san, UBS. I have one question. Slide 19, please. So, this is about the possibility of having another price revision in 2024. You mentioned that you are going to put all the options on the table. And to be more specific, what are the things that you're thinking of? Because the next price revision is going to be different from those that you executed in the past. You are saying that this is going to be within 2024. That's clear. And you have returned to profitability. And I'm sure that you are going to take leadership. And is it like intention for you to take a leadership in the further price revision? This is my question.
[Interpreted] Thanks for the question. Your question is about the future price revision. And in the deck, we say that it is something that we are considering for 2024. You want to know more details about our price revision plan. Costin-san would like to answer.
I will start by saying we stated very clear that we will consider all price revision options. And we do this more extensively than before. We are aiming to implement further revision within 2024. And what does it mean? It means that since 2022, May, when we were the first company to take price increase, we learned a lot about the effect of price increase. And what we learned is that price increases are a very good way to maintain a healthy competitive environment.The key for a successful price increase, it's a combination of having a premium portfolio, which we have with all our brands, and disciplined execution, which, again, we have, and we proved it for price increases. We are looking right now at the consumer sentiment; we are looking at the overall market evolution and reaction. And like I said, we are considering all price revision options, and we do this being more detailed. We do it more extensively than before, and we are aiming to implement further price revision within 2024. I hope this is answering your question. Thank you.
[Interpreted] Well, thank you very much. So basically, you will be taking the leadership for price revisions. Will that be the case? Or looking at various product categories -- I do understand that all the options on the table. But for the small packages, you rose the price last year, and that was great contribution. But is it going to be like the same scale? Also, you mentioned that you're looking at the demand situation. But looking at the demand in 2024, are you thinking that there is going to be an environment that will allow you to raise the price?
Absolutely right. we took leadership in making price decisions in Japanese market, and we will do whatever is needed in order to continue increasing profitability, but also making sure we have a healthy beverage industry in Japan. We are making all options right now, and we'll inform you when we'll make a clear decision.
[Interpreted] Thank you very much, for the question. Operator, we would like to move on to the next question.
Next question, [Operator Instructions]. Saji-san from Mizuho Securities.
[Interpreted] Thank you very much. I have also would like to ask about the price revision. You said that you have gained learnings in the past experiences. So, for this year, we had a record heat wave, and I believe that you enjoy a great volume. But going forward, for the next year, you should be anticipating this cycling of this year summer. So, what would you see those kinds of impacts coming from the cycling and also the possibility of the price hike in such season? And also, for tea and those categories might have seen a very struggle after the price revision this time around. So which kind of learnings do you have in those particular categories where you see a drop in the sales volume and stuff?
[Interpreted] Thank you, Saji-san for your question. Your question is about what we learned from the price revision experiences, particularly you're looking at the recycling effects of this year's summer wave for the next year? And also, you would like to understand what do we see about the impact coming from the PV?
Absolutely right. 2023 was the hottest summer in history on record. And as players in the beverage industry, we had a great benefit of this entire market grew significantly, and we grew and we took market share during 2023. Moving forward, in terms of price increase for 2024, like I said, we observed that the consumers and the customers are implementing or accepting the price increase when we have a strong portfolio and we see this is happening in our case with our portfolio growing significantly. And also when we show leadership and we have a disciplined execution.Now after every price increase after the last 4 price increases, we saw for 2, 3 weeks, we saw the volumes going down, but eventually, they recover to the levels that we estimated. The good thing is on the bigger scale, the average prices in the market increased and they stayed increased in the market. Of course, we follow carefully, like I said, the consumer sentiment and the evolution of private brands and the solutions that we are coming that we are considering now for a further price increase in 2024 will take into consideration the power and the acceptance in different categories and in different packages.But I would say again, we are considering now all the options more extensively than before, we learned a lot. And on top of a very good summer, the disciplined execution of our price delivered significant revenue and profit to CCBJI. I hope this answers. Thank you very much.
[Interpreted] Saji-san, for your question. Operator, please put through the next question.
[Operator Instructions] Morgan Stanley, MUFG Securities, Miyake-san.
[Interpreted] Miyake from Morgan Stanley speaking. So, for 2023 and the outlook with the revised product. And based on that, regarding the SBP outlook that you made published. So I'd like to know if it was changed. So, 2028 is the future, but maybe around 2025. What is your outlook? And in order to tell that in 2023. So, regarding the actual result and the outlook. So how much is the organic improvement? And how much was the tailwind of the heat wave. So could you need to separate that.And based on that, for the next term, what kind of the drivers will push your performance upwards. And there might be some cycling from this summer, and there might be some cost increase, but there might be some benefit from the transformation. So -- and I'd like to know whether that you are upward revision of this year's outlook will change the future outlook of the SBP.
[Interpreted] So, your question is, so actually, there was the revision for 2023. So, are there any change to the outlook of 2024 or onwards? And what are the drivers for the future growth? So that was a question from here, Bjorn will answer.
Thank you, Miyake-san. I think we can speak for a few hours on this topic, but I'll try to keep it short here. First and foremost, we are firmly committed to the Vision 2028 strategic plan that we issued back in August. And that, as you saw laid out that we will return to profitability in 2024. However, now, because of the push of a very good Q3, we are ahead of that plan. But there is no plan for now to revise the 2028 targets. We can make fully committed to delivering them.When it comes to more of your detailed question into 2024 about organic versus the heat wave. I think it's fair to say, yes, the heat wave had an impact. We believe plus/minus probably half of the revision that we took up this year, the JPY 6.5 billion, can be attributed to the heat wave. So that's, of course, something we need to bake into our plans for next year when we issue that and talk to you when we get to February.Other drivers that will help us deliver and get closer to our SBP commitments over the long-term period for next year is pricing. As you heard from the prior questions on the prepared remarks, we are seriously considering further price increases next year. We see cost inflation coming through in Japan.First, we had the imported inflation, so to speak, through commodity price increases in dollars made worse by the devaluation of the yen. And we are also now seeing the yen-based costs in our business and in the industry for that matter, continue to go up, whether it's salary, contractors, and other input costs to our business. However, we also strongly continue our transformation efforts. Again, you saw back in the Vision 2028 publishing that we will deliver further JPY 30 billion to JPY 35 billion over that plan period, and we commit that we will deliver that, including in 2024.So therefore, I'm not going to give you any numbers for '24 for now. We will come back again as part of the normal process in February with that. But hopefully, this gave you a little bit of insight to how we're thinking about it. Thank you.
[Interpreted] Thank you very much. So, the price revisions for 2024 actually, if you don't do it, the cost increase couldn't be covered. That's my understanding. Is it correct?
Leading question. But again, I think any healthy business needs to match price increases with increases in costs. And I think also you have to account for those period, as Calin said in the prepared remarks, we're also recovering profitability where price increases plays an important part in our strategic business plan for 2028.
[Interpreted] Miyake-san, thank you for your question. Then, operator, please move on to the next question.
[Operator Instructions] Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, this is Tsunoyama-san.
[Interpreted] So, one question about quarter 3. As convenience stores numbers are very strong is my impression and, in the past, you mentioned that you have lots of difficulties in this channel, convenience stores. But looking at the situation right now, probably is the price revision in addition to the hot summer, but in Q3, is there like any changes that happen in their approach? And did that benefit for the channel?
[Interpreted] Thank you, Tsunoyama-san, so much for the question. So, your questions about Q3 and CVS is really recovering. What was the difference in approach was the question. Costin-san like to answer. Costin, please?
As you remember, during pandemic, CVS was one of the most effective channel. So with the market recovering with the inbound and traffic going up, plus a very good summer in 2023. Of course, CVS was benefiting significantly. So we are very glad to see the traffic recovering and very good sales moving in CVS. But also, our efforts in CVS for the last one year are proving good results. We are talking here about listing new products. We are talking about collaboration projects with our customers, and we are talking about the overall excellent execution of marketing programs.We believe CVS is on a recovery path. It's good to see the great trends. And moving forward, we expect this to continue to grow, for sure, not at this high level. But if you allow me, I will share with you our concerns that I have in CVS right now, which is a significant competition of prices. So we see private brands going very low on price, and we see international brand products that are sold at very low price. And this is, of course, not healthy for the overall industry. Thank you for your question.
[Interpreted] Thank you very much. And I do understand that the competition is very severe…
[Interpreted] Tsunoyama-san, we missed your question. So you're asking about the convenience store?
[Interpreted] On the market share is my question. So your share is going up. Is that the correct understanding?
[Interpreted] Okay. So your question about the market share trends in the convenience store.
Look, this is what is happening. We are growing market share in CVS. And especially in Q3, we see very solid growth with more than one percentage point increase. Thank you.
[Interpreted] Thank you very much, Tsunoyama-san. Operator, please move on to the next question
[Operator Instructions] Next person is Morita-san from Daiwa Securities.
[Interpreted] I have one question. So I believe that you're focusing on the pricing and the price revision. But what will be the purpose for you to hike the price? So I would like to understand what is the purpose. Is this a client the way in which you are kind of putting a countermeasure against the cost because that was how the purpose was in the past? But I was just wondering, maybe from here onwards, it might be a different purpose for you to revise the price.
[Interpreted] Thank you, Morita-san. Your question was about price revision, but the reason and the purpose of the price revision. So I would like Bjorn to take up this question.
Thank you, Morita-san. Very good question. So there are several reasons why we would look at taking up prices in these markets. But I think first and foremost, it's important to note that the price increases we have taken already has been very well received by the customers and the consumers and continue to help us deliver solid improvements in our performance. When it comes to taking prices, I think there's several reasons that can influence the price push over a period.We first had, as I said, commodities going up in dollar terms in Japan that's hit the industry. It was followed by a fairly strong devaluation of the yen that seems to be sticking for the moment. Secondly, we're starting to see inflation in many of our yen-based costs or cost buckets in Japan, whether it's salaries, contract workers, and other input costs to our business. And thirdly, as Calin also highlighted in the prepared remarks in the beginning, it's also one of several vehicles for us to continue to improve our profitability. And you saw that also built into the price mix when we issued the Vision 2028 strategy plan back in August.So to me, all of these measures or levers, if you can call it that, Morita-san, are part of the picture when we decide when and how much we're going to take our pricing. But again, it's important to note the good track record we have in taking prices in the market. Thank you.
[Interpreted] Well, if that's the case, like in 2024 is given, but how about 2025 and 2026 and beyond, are you going to continue this kind of approach in the coming years too?
[Interpreted] Thank you, Morita-san, for your question. Are you asking are we going to continuously thinking about the price revision in years to come? Maybe I will ask Calin to pick up on this question.
Thank you very much for the interest, of course, which is a quite hot topic of these days, which is pricing. And I hope that my colleagues so far are trying to answer all the questions and the interest into this topic. And I think it was regarded from almost all possible angles so far. While we expressed our firm commitment to drive the value for our shareholders, value for all our stakeholders, and driving revenue growth through one element being price increases. It's there. So the fact that we are putting that as one of our pillars of growth, I don't think it should be a surprise.Yes, and to answer more precisely, the last question pointed out Morita-san. We have included pricing opportunities in the following years as well because if we are to believe the national policies, the current trends that we are seeing in the market, the current trends that we are seeing with the currency and with the commodities, well, we are navigating towards an inflationary environment, which is very close to other parts of the world with justified price increases. We cannot avoid that.Now asking us to forecast price increases 3 to 5 years down the road, that's really out of our capabilities at this moment in time, but we will definitely consider this as one of the key elements for the future growth of our revenue and profitability. I hope that, that was answering more largely the pricing questions that I find them absolutely justified and normal to come up at this moment in time.Last thing that I want to say with the pricing, I just want to remind you that throughout the years, we were leading in price increases implementation, and in the future, we are not going to be the one which is going to drag back the industry into this because we believe that this is a healthy instrument for the health of the industry. Thank you.
[Interpreted] Thank you, Morita-san, for your question. I suppose we have spent most of the scheduled time. I would like to pick up last question from the next person. So operator, put through the last question, please.
Okay. I'm going to unmute the next person with a question. SMBC Nikko Securities, Takagi-san. Takagi-san, please go ahead.
[interpreted] Takagi speaking. I have one question. the room for the price revision, how much room do you have? I think you have learned a lot, but regarding the category and the channel and the package. And so when I look at by category, the room for the price revision is large in some category, but smaller in other categories. So, what is your view about the category? And how do you see each category regarding the room for the further price revision?
[Interpreted] Takagi-san, thank you very much. So, regarding the reason for further price revision by category. So that's the question is about. So regarding this one Costin will answer.
Thank you, Takagi-san. This is Costin. That's a great question when we discussed about a segmented approach. And we said in the beginning that we are considering further price increases more segmented. So I will give you the example of vending for the beginning. We took price increase in vending before and faster than the rest of the market. And this helped us with a very disciplined execution, help us to capture the demand at a higher price point and to deliver revenue and profit. This was very well accepted by the consumers. So, there is space for further increases in vending.When we look by categories, I will use the example of coffee this year. We took price increases, and we relaunched Georgia in Q1 with excellent results during the summer and during the year, which again is showing a good combination of strong brands, strong marketing programs and the target price are working. I have also example for water. I have examples for Coca-Cola and sparkling beverages.So moving forward, we stay committed on analyzing different options going segmented, as you said, for the portfolio and for the channel. But also, as Calin said, we are committed to take all the options and we'll consider further price increases in 2024. Thank you very much for your question.
[Interpreted] Thank you very much. Then regarding the bending, actually, compared with other channels. So actually, the price gap has expanded, but you got a good reaction. So did you have a particular strategy or what work actually for you? This is the last question.
For years, we are discussing about spending as a very strong channel, which is very important for our consumers. We have great discipline and agility with the transformation of lending we did for the last years. So when we took price increase, it went very fast and it delivered very good results. On top of this, we had good summer. We had good marketing activities. So, we increased profit, and we grew another point in market share in vending. In fact, we are right now at the highest ever market share in. So moving forward, we'll continue to take advantage of our position in this important channel.
[Interpreted] Takagi-san, thank you for your question. So now before closing, although we passed a set time, but Calin will say some message to you.
Yes. So Calin here again. And I just want to take the opportunity now at the end of the call because it's the last time where we are going to meet in this format for this year 2023 and to say a very big, big thank you to all you here in the call and even to the one that I'm missing today. Thank you for the interest in our business. Thank you for your questions. Thank you for your feedback, and thank you for your support throughout all these tough years, but now joining us on our journey towards way better times going on. Following that, I just want to make an announcement verbally here that we have communicated in writing already on the fact that Costin-san, which was an integral part of our team for almost a decade right now and he was answering a lot of your questions and address of your many things of your interest in interaction with our company. As I said, Costin-san is going to leave Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan, and he is going to become the [Foreign Language] of Coca-Cola Bottler in India. We are very proud of Costin-san's career progression, and we want to say an enormous thank you to Costin for all the help to this business to all the support and he is going to be missed -- but I wanted you to hear that in this call from myself and announcing you as well Costin-san succession with this occasion.Well, Costin-san succession will be within two persons. We will have Alex Gonzalez, which was with us for the last years. It's going to take over the retail business of our commercial activities. And we are going to have Maki Kado-san, which you know as well, which is going to take over the food service business of our commercial activities.That's all probably from me today and really look forward to seeing and hearing you next year what in the meantime, I'm going to ask Costin to address you with a message. Thank you.
Thank you, Calin. [Foreign Language] This day finally came. And today is a great day for me. I joined Coca-Cola Japan system on November 10, 2014, exactly 9 years ago. And this was an incredible experience of my professional and personal life, and it's difficult not to be emotional about this. But I want to take a moment to thank all of you for your interest in CCBJI and for all the positive conversations that help us to evolve and to develop our company and the industry.And I remember very well the first interaction with the analysts asking about price promotion strategy, volume versus value, and you see we are consistent since then. We took your question seriously, and we did significant work on revenue management, be it our initiatives on new packages, on promotional strategy, and the last 4 price increases. I also appreciate your continuous interest in vending. This helped us to lead the industry transformation for vending with great results for this important channel.And all of you followed Coca-Cola Bottling Environment in Japan during the integration of 12 bottlers, setting CCBJI and transforming CCBJI into a world-class Japanese bottler. I am today, after nine years, very positive about the future of CCBJI, and I have full confidence in SBP-3.0 plans. And we all know a plan is as good as the people running it. So I am pleased to see Alejandro Gonzalez and Kado Maki-san, leading the implementation of GoGo 2028.I thank you in advance for being collaborative with Alex and Maki. [Foreign Language]
[Interpreted] Well, thank you very, very much to Costin-san. And with that, we would like to close today's session.The contents of today's presentation will be available on our website following this presentation. If you have any questions or feedback, please contact our IR team. Thank you very much for joining the call today.[Portions of this transcript that are marked [Interpreted] were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]