Sojitz Corp
TSE:2768
Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2024 Analysis
Sojitz Corp
Sojitz Corporation has navigated through a challenging business landscape marked by global uncertainties, including geopolitical risks, inflation, monetary tightening by central banks, and a sluggish Chinese economy. Despite these headwinds, the company has maintained its course, reporting a consolidated profit of JPY 75.2 billion, a 30% decline year-on-year but aligning with the initial forecasts. To investors' delight, this performance has led to an upward revision of the full-year profit forecast from JPY 95 billion to JPY 100 billion. This attentive management is also reflected in the company's decision to elevate the annual dividend forecast from JPY 130 to JPY 135 per share, translating to a healthy payout ratio of 30%.
The company observed a decrease in coal prices affecting the Metals, Mineral Resources & Recycling segment, while the Retail & Consumer Service and Automotive segments benefited from new subsidiaries. However, Selling, General & Administrative expenses rose, partially due to integration costs and currency fluctuations. Investments in equity accounted for profit losses, mainly in the steel trading company and infrastructure asset replacements. Nonetheless, the company's cash flow remains robust, boasting significant net inflows from both operating and investing activities, culminated in an impressive free cash flow of JPY 111.7 billion.
Sojitz Corporation's proactive strategy adjustment is evident in its segment performances. While automotive profits have been pressured by the semiconductor shortage and competitive pricing in the Philippines, the company is aggressively selling high-cost inventory to mitigate impacts. The Metals segment forecast has been upwardly revised due to stable coal market conditions, and despite a challenging environment for Chemicals, improvements in business operations and methanol market conditions have warranted a JPY 1 billion upward revision.
The company's future-oriented approach is showcased through its disciplined investment of JPY 450 billion during the Mid-Term Plan 2023, albeit a JPY 50 billion shortfall from initial targets. The consistent generation of significant net inflow and strategic investment in growth areas demonstrates a firm commitment to sustainable progress under disciplined cash management.
Remaining committed to rewarding shareholders, Sojitz Corporation conducted a significant buyback of 9.79 million shares and retired 25.3 million shares in the first half of FY 2023, underpinning its policy of maintaining a dividend of JPY 130 per share. Reflecting the revised profit forecast, the year's annual dividend is now pegged at JPY 135 per share, reinforcing a payout ratio marginally above the 30% mark.
Sojitz Corporation is setting up for success beyond the current fiscal year's projected JPY 100 billion profit, aiming at a springboard for aggressive growth in the next Mid-Term Plan. While challenges persist surrounding market conditions and foreign exchange volatility, the company is determined to prove its triple-digit billion-yen earning potential. Successively, efforts are underway to reach a Price-to-Book ratio (PBR) above the threshold of 1x, seeding greater confidence in the company's forthcoming Mid-Term Plan.
You don't have any saved screeners yet
Good afternoon. This is Makoto Shibuya, CFO of Sojitz Corporation. Thank you very much for joining us for the earnings briefing. Please refer to the Q3 FY 2023 presentation materials posted on our website, specifically the first part titled financial results for the third quarter and full year forecast. Let me begin on Slide 5, which shows a summary of profit or loss. Consolidated profit for the period came to JPY 75.2 billion. This is down 30% year-on-year, but well on track with regard to the initial full year forecast of JPY 95 billion. Now that we have upward revised the full year forecast from JPY 95 billion to JPY 100 billion, Q3 results stand at 75%. The main reasons for the year-on-year decline in profit are, the impact of year-on-year decline in coal prices and a slowdown due to sluggish demand for chemical products in general. The business environment has been characterized by uncertainty due to heightened geopolitical risks, persistent inflation, although slowing in developed countries and continued monetary tightening by central banks there and slow improvement in the Chinese economy. Against that backdrop, in our view, our progress is generally as expected, although some segments are better than others. New investments leading to new businesses and accumulation of assets have contributed to gross profit growth. There is good progress in laying the foundation for further expansion in the scale of our learnings. In light of results up to the third quarter, the current market conditions for coal and other commodities as well as the foreign exchange rates, we have revised our full year forecast upward by JPY 5 billion to JPY 100 billion. In conjunction, the annual dividend forecast has also been revised upward from JPY 130 per share to JPY 135 per share. This translates into a payout ratio of 30% against the revised forecast. Cash flow and other management indices are also in line. With regard to the MTP 2023 target for PBR above 1x, our PBR was 0.79 at the end of December, 0.86 at the end of January, still short of 1. We will continue our efforts so as to show how we are progressing to go above 1x in our journey towards further growth. Let me provide more detail on Slide 6 and beyond. Slide 6 shows the PL summary. Gross profit was JPY 242.3 billion, down JPY 21.1 billion from the same period last year. The main factor was a decline in coal prices for Metals, Mineral Resources & Recycling. On the other hand, Retail & Consumer service and Automotive segments were up, thanks to newly consolidated subsidiaries. SG&A increased by JPY 13.8 billion year-on-year. About 40% was related to subsidiaries added or removed from the consolidation base, about 20% was due to the weaker yen. For financial income and costs, the net cost increased year-on-year due to the impact of higher interest rates on the U.S. dollar. Share of profit or loss of investments accounted for using the equity method was JPY 29.2 billion, down JPY 7.9 billion from the same period last year. Major factors include reduced profit at a steel trading company due to lower steel market prices in the Americas compared with the same period previous year and replacement of infrastructure-related assets. With all that, consolidated profit came to JPY 75.2 billion. Slides 7 and 8 shows a BS summary. As shown on Slide 7, total assets increased by about JPY 130 billion from the end of last March. Of this increase, just under JPY 100 billion comes from the impact of the weaker yen on foreign currency translation related to overseas operations. There were also increases in inventories, goodwill and investments, mostly related to newly consolidated subsidiaries and aircraft-related collection. Total liabilities also increased by about JPY 80 billion. The increases, decreases are generally the same as on the asset side, JPY 50 billion of the increase comes from foreign exchange rates. The end of the period fell on a holiday, which pushed up trade payables. As for shareholders' equity, even with dividend payment and share buybacks, the accumulation of profit and foreign currency translation differences resulted in an increase of approximately JPY 60 billion to JPY 897.3 billion. Slide 8 summarizes key management indicators and the full year forecast. Slide 9 shows cash flow. Cash flow from operating activities was a good net inflow of JPY 86.2 billion. Net cash from investing activities was an inflow of JPY 25.5 billion. While there were outflows for new investments, there were more inflows to collection from aircraft-related transactions, sale of infrastructure assets and proceeds from disposal of cross-held shares. As a result, free cash flow came to a significant inflow of JPY 111.7 billion. Slides 10 to 12 summarize results and forecast by segment. Slide 10 shows gross profit. Gross profit increased year-on-year for all segments other than Metals, Mineral Resources & Recycling and Chemicals. For the 3 segments of Automotive, Infrastructure & Healthcare and Retail & Consumer Service, the increase is due to consolidation of new investees and the scale of earnings is expanding. Slide 11 shows the year-on-year comparison for profit. Slide 12 shows the full year forecast and progress so far. On Slide 11, profit for Metals, Mineral Resources & Recycling declined significantly due to the impact of lower market prices on the coal business. The decrease in Automotive is largely due to withdrawal from the distributorship business in Thailand and efforts to expeditiously reduce high-cost inventory in the Automotive sales business in the Philippines. For Infrastructure & Healthcare, the decrease is an artifact of asset sales in the same period previous year. For Chemicals, there was a slowdown in demand as well as onetime losses recorded related to collection risk of receivables. The decrease for Consumer Industry & Agriculture business comes from building materials as well as an artifact of the strong performance of fertilizers in the Philippines in the previous year. On the other hand, Retail & Consumer Service was up significantly, thanks to recovery in domestic retail business, sale of a shopping mall and a negative goodwill associated with new investments. On Slide 12, we present our full year forecast broken down by segments. In conjunction with the upward revision of the consolidated profit forecast to JPY 100 billion, we have adjusted figures for each segment, reflecting the business environment and progress made up to the third quarter. Let me highlight the changes. Starting with Automotive. As is true of dealership business in general, the supply of new cars has improved as the semiconductor shortage eased. This has squeezed profit margins for both new and used cars. For used cars, prices and volume have also been negatively affected. Rising interest rates are also negatively affecting sales volume. In addition, Automotive sales business in the Philippines has been affected by sluggish sales caused by a weaker peso against the U.S. dollar and intensified competition pushing down prices. Starting from the second half, we are implementing drastic measures to turn this around by expeditiously selling high-cost inventory and have downward revised the forecast. The aim is to complete this process in the current financial year rather than letting the impact continue into the next year and beyond. For Metals, Mineral Resources & Recycling, we have upward revised our forecast, reflecting current solid conditions in the coal market. For Chemicals, we downward revised in the second quarter to reflect onetime loss in the first quarter and the revision of the feedstock procurement contract for our methanol business in Indonesia. While the business environment remains challenging, cumulative earnings and improvements of individual businesses and stronger-than-expected market conditions for methanol has prompted us to upward revise of time by JPY 1 billion. For Aerospace & Transportation Project, the forecast has also been upward revised based on progress made so far. Slide 13 shows the status of cash flow management for FY 2023 and MTP 2023. New investments are expected to total JPY 450 billion during the MTP 2023 period. This is about JPY 50 billion short of what was planned at the beginning of this financial year, mainly because some of the anticipated projects have been pushed back to next year or later. For core cash flow, we are expecting a significant net inflow on a 6-year aggregated basis, including both MTP 2020 and 2023. Under disciplined cash management, we are steadily building up new investments for future growth, mainly in the focus areas that form the pillars of the growth strategy under MTP 2023. Please refer to Slide 14 for the status of new investments and asset replacement up to Q3. Slide 15 shows returns from investments made under MTP 2017, 2020 and 2023. Returns from the previous 2 MTPs have steadily contributed to earnings, although there is some variation from year-to-year due to timings of monetization. Returns from investment during MTP 2023 may appear rather small to date. The 3-year average ROI is around 3%. This is short of the approximately 4% planned when we formulated the MTP, partly because there's relatively more investment executed in the final year, but we have surely been building up businesses and investments for future growth. Slide 16 describes shareholder returns. For the current financial year ending March, based on our policy of a minimum dividend of JPY 130 per share and a consolidated payout ratio of about 30%. And given the upward revision of the full year forecast, we have accordingly revised the annual dividend forecast from JPY 130 per share to JPY 135 per share for a consolidated payout ratio of 30.2%. In the first half of FY 2023, we conducted a buyback of 9.79 million shares worth JPY 30 billion and retired approximately 25.3 million shares. With regard to the remaining slides, Slide 17 summarizes stock price, PBR and credit rating. Slide 18 shows latest commodity prices, foreign exchange and interest rates, together with our assumptions for Q4. Slide 19 shows earnings trends separated by resource and non-resource businesses. Slides 21 and onwards show detailed segment information. Slide 36 has supplemental information on shareholder returns in relation to the release on the next MTP made at the end of November. Starting from Slide 37, we present recent topics and further supplemental data from Slide 42, all for your information. Just to recap, we have revised our full year profit forecast upward to JPY 100 billion. At the end of November, we released the outline of the next MTP, under which we will aim for an average net profit of over JPY 120 billion over the next 3 years. The JPY 100 billion mark is for us a springboard for further growth. Market conditions, foreign exchange rates and other factors at the time may affect our business performance. Nevertheless, we hope to demonstrate this year, the final year of MTP 2023 that we are a company capable of continuously generating triple-digit billion-yen earnings. We will continue efforts in the remaining 2 months so as to get PBR above 1x and raise the level of expectations and confidence in our next MTP. This concludes my presentation. Thank you very much for your kind attention.