NSK Ltd
TSE:6471
Earnings Call Analysis
Q2-2024 Analysis
NSK Ltd
President and CEO Akitoshi Ichii reported on NSK Limited's financial results for the first half of the fiscal year, marked by a dashed hope for recovery in industrial machinery demand and the economic slowdown in China. Despite diminished industrial sales, the automotive industry glimpsed resurgence due to eased semiconductor shortages. The result was tangible, with sales at JPY 386.7 billion and operating income at JPY 11.1 billion. Nonetheless, these figures trail behind initial expectations, resulting in downwardly revised full-year forecasts to JPY 800 billion in sales and JPY 30 billion in operating income, reduced from July's forecast by JPY 8 billion and JPY 14 billion respectively.
The company has strategically created an equity method affiliate for the steering business, an initiative completed in August. In a nod to shareholder value, NSK maintained a steady interim dividend at JPY 15 per share and carried out a share buyback and cancellation policy, reinforcing the company's emphasis on robust capital returns.
Operational income sank to JPY 11.1 billion, reflecting the pinch felt from declining industrial machinery demand. NSK's financial overview revealed that after accounting for exchange rate fluctuations and the upward adjustment of sales prices, there was an actual sales decrease of roughly JPY 20 billion from the past year. The company grappled with a widespread drop in operating income mainly due to diminished sales volume in the Industrial sector. The revised full-year forecast appears guarded, with anticipated continuance of sluggish demand for industrial machinery and only a moderate automotive sector uptick, alongside conservative exchange rate assumptions.
The Industrial Machinery sector faced a significant slump with a JPY 24.4 billion drop in sales and JPY 15 billion plunge in segment income. Prolonged sluggishness in machine tools sales and semiconductor segments has NSK bracing for continued tepid performance in upcoming quarters. In contrast, the Automotive sector is faring better, aligning its growth with approximately a 10% increase in global production, and achieving a segment income ratio of 4%. This sector's sales approached JPY 199.1 billion. NSK's forecasts anticipate Automotive sales to soar by JPY 40 billion over last year, outpacing the feeble performance in the Industrial Machinery business.
The company's financial struggles are attributed to a confluence of factors, from declining volumes to rising costs. Although efforts to pass increased costs onto sales prices have mitigated some impacts, a JPY 14 billion operating income deficit from targeted projections looms large. Looking ahead, NSK has pinpointed specific challenges including a potential JPY 13.8 billion operating income dip alongside a JPY 18.9 billion volume and mix deterioration year-on-year. Cost-saving initiatives are in play to counter these adversities, while NSK deduces an operating income forecast of JPY 12.5 billion, or 3.5%, for the Industrial Machinery business in the latter half of the year.
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Thank you for joining our financial conference today. I am Akitoshi Ichii, President and CEO of NSK Limited. Let me begin by presenting the first half results followed by the full year forecast and finally, progress of the midterm plan 2026 or MTP 2026, as outlined in the table of contents. Looking at Page 4, we have 4 key points of the first half financial results. First of all, we had expected a recovery in demand in the first and second quarters, especially for industrial machinery. But unfortunately, it did not materialize as expected and demand continued to be in an adjustment phase. The economic slowdown in China also persisted. On the other hand, looking at the automotive industry, production volume is recovering as the shortage of semiconductors is being alleviated. This resulted in sales of JPY 386.7 billion and operating income of JPY 11.1 billion. In addition, taking into account the economic situation of the first half of the year and trends in orders and customer outlook in the second half, we have decided to revise our forecast downward for the full year. The revised forecast is for sales of JPY 800 billion and operating income of JPY 30 billion, a reduction of JPY 8 billion in sales and JPY 14 billion in operating income from the July forecast. The next point touches on the establishment of an equity method affiliate for the steering business, which we had previously announced. This was successfully completed in August. As for shareholder returns, we will maintain our initial plan to pay an interim dividend of JPY 15 per share at an annual dividend of JPY 30 per share as planned. I am pleased to report that we bought back JPY 21.7 billion or 25 million shares of treasury shares and canceled 51 million shares completed in August. Next, looking at Page 5. Looking at the figures for continuing operations. Sales came in at JPY 386.7 billion. Operating income was JPY 11.1 billion or 2.9%. Net income was JPY 5.7 billion. Including discontinued operations, net income for the period was JPY 0.7 billion. Compared to the July forecast on the right, sales were down JPY 5.3 billion due to a significant drop in demand for industrial machinery and operating income was down JPY 2.9 billion. This is a decrease in sales and profits compared to the forecast. If we exclude the JPY 11 billion impact of exchange rate fluctuations and the impact of transferring increasing costs to sales prices, sales actually decreased by about JPY 20 billion from the previous year. Next, looking at Page 6. The V chart explains the factors behind the change in operating income, which fell JPY 8.5 billion below the previous year. Volume and mix had a negative impact of JPY 14.5 billion. This is the result of a large decrease in sales volume, mainly in the Industrial business as well as the proportion or mix of sales across Industrial Machinery and Automotive. Inflation and labor cost increases had a negative impact of JPY 8.1 billion. Cost reductions at JPY 3.2 billion and the transfer of increasing costs to sales prices of JPY 10.1 billion were slightly higher than expected, an increasing decrease in costs came in at minus JPY 2.3 billion, overall, covering the inflation and labor cost increase. In addition, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations of JPY 3.2 billion due to the weaker yen was a tailwind, but unfortunately, overall, we could not offset the entire JPY 14.5 billion decline in volume and mix, resulting in an JPY 8.5 billion decrease in operating income. Looking at Page 7, we have the breakdown for the Industrial Machinery business. In the first half of the year, sales of the Industrial Machinery business was JPY 171 billion, and segment income was JPY 4.6 billion. Year-on-year, sales declined JPY 24.4 billion and segment income declined JPY 15 billion. As shown in the graph on the right, sales from the first to second quarter remained largely unchanged, but the year-on-year decline in machine tools, including orders began in the first quarter and continued in the second quarter. In addition, the semiconductor and E&E segments, which have been sluggish since the second half of last year, continued to be weak in the first and second quarters of this fiscal year. Next, on Page 8, we have the Automotive business. As the fiscal 2023 first half actual column in the table shows, we are finally back on a slight recovery truck, thanks to the efforts of our customers. Global automotive production volume in the first half was 45 million vehicles, which is an increase of about 10% year-on-year based on IHS Markit data. Sales were JPY 199.1 billion, an increase of slightly less than 10%, but basically in line with the increase in Automotive production, considering exchange rate fluctuations and our efforts to transfer increasing costs to sales prices. Segment income was JPY 5.7 billion. Looking at the second quarter, we were able to make it back to 4% segment income. Next, looking at Page 10, I cover the revised full year forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024. Here, we have the key points. In industrial machinery, we expect demand trends and the Chinese economy to remain sluggish in the second half. We believe it might be too optimistic to hope for a significant recovery in the second half in Industrial. As for Automotive, we revised the forecast to 89 million vehicles for the full year, up 3 million units from the original 86 million. However, as you saw the numbers on the previous page, we forecast Automotive production to remain flat at around 44 million to 45 million vehicles in the second half. As for exchange rates, we have made the following assumptions for the second half, JPY 140 for the dollar, JPY 150 for the euro and JPY 19 for the Chinese yuan. As a result, the revised forecast is JPY 800 billion for sales, JPY 30 billion for operating income and JPY 14 billion for net income across continuing and discontinued operations. Sales are down JPY 8 billion and profit down JPY 14 billion compared to the original forecast. As for currency fluctuations, we expect a positive impact of JPY 28 billion on sales and JPY 7 billion on operating income. As you can see on the right side of the table, year-on-year sales will increase JPY 23.2 billion and operating income will decrease JPY 13.8 billion. Moving to Page 11, we will review the factors behind the change in the forecast. For the full year, compared to the original forecast, we revised down our operating income forecast by JPY 14 billion. As I mentioned earlier, excluding currency impact, the real volume is lower year-on-year. The slowdown in the industrial machinery business has had a large impact on our volume and mix of products. As for inflation and transferring increasing costs to sales prices, inflation has been less than we had expected, and our sales prices are in line with the expected inflation. We forecast a tailwind of JPY 7 billion from the effect of yen depreciation. But unfortunately, we estimate we will close the period JPY 14 billion lower than originally planned. Next, on Page 12, we have the factors behind change year-on-year. From fiscal 2022 to 2023, we are looking at a decline of JPY 13.8 billion driven by a deterioration of volume and mix of minus JPY 18.9 billion. The Industrial Machinery business is amidst a decline in sales with sales about JPY 50 billion lower year-on-year. However, Automotive sales are expected to be JPY 40 billion higher year-on-year. Although the Automotive business increased sales JPY 40 billion, the mix or ratio of sales in each business is playing a significant role here. And as you can see here, we are rebounding on inflation and increasing sales prices as planned, including covering increasing labor costs. As the 4 columns in the middle of the page show in terms of inflation and labor cost increases as well as cost increases and decreases, all but JPY 3 billion have been made up for in cost reductions and transferring increasing costs to sales prices, in line with our original targets. The JPY 4 billion effect of the weaker yen combined with the impact of volume and mix, unfortunately, results in a JPY 13.8 billion decrease in operating income year-on-year as we have reflected in our forecast for the second half of the current fiscal year. Next, on Page 13, we show the forecast figures for each business, including the second half of the year. For Industrial Machinery, we expect sales in the second half of the year to be JPY 181.5 billion, which appears to be a slight increase from the first half, but this is due to the number of operating days and some sales expansion. Nevertheless, the second half of the year shows a year-on-year decline of 8%, which is a continuation of the sluggish performance of the first half of the year. The revised forecast is JPY 352.5 billion with segment income of JPY 12.5 billion or 3.5%. As for Automotive, I mentioned earlier that the volume is expected to be almost the same as the first half, but the mix of Automotive sales is expected to be stronger than the first half at JPY 214.9 billion, partly due to the strong sales of Japanese manufacturers, including Toyota, in the second half of the fiscal year. Second half Automotive segment income is forecast at JPY 10.8 billion or 5%. We estimate that total Automotive business sales for the full year will be JPY 414 billion with segment income at 4% or JPY 16.5 billion profit. Next, starting on Page 15, we will review progress of Mid-Term Plan 2026 or MTP 2026. As I mentioned at the outset, the establishment of the steering business joint venture has been successfully completed. Unfortunately, although we thought we had made a good start in 2022, the industrial machinery business is currently facing a slowdown. On the other hand, I believe that the automotive industry has made it on a path towards gradual recovery with the shortage of semiconductors finally resolved. Overall, the figures were down from the previous year with an operating income margin of 3.8% and return on expenditure of 2%, which at the moment is far from the 10% target. Looking at Page 16, there are no major changes to our growth strategy. But as you can see, there is a JPY 100 billion gap between our current forecast of JPY 350 billion and the JPY 450 billion target for 2026 as the Chinese economy is still lagging slightly. One of the things we need to do is determine when the market will recover, but we also need to expand sales and secure supply capacity that will enable us to do so. We need to take into account that the business environment is deteriorating, which we did not anticipate in the medium term with sales in Europe and in E&E segments being sluggish. To address this, we will pursue structural reforms. In other words, with initiatives we have just started, we would like to make improvements in volume and mix. In addition, since China has been slightly sluggish, we would like to allocate resources and investment to localize production in the Americas and make efforts to expand sales in the Americas. On Page 17, in the Automotive business, regarding increasing our share for electric vehicles and expanding sales of new products such as our ball screw actuators for electric brake systems and the transformation of our customer portfolio, we have been making progress as expected and securing orders in line with the targets in our plan. The current forecast for the Automotive business for fiscal 2023 shows sales of JPY 414 billion, which appears to exceed the midterm plan target of JPY 410 billion for fiscal 2026. But the exchange rate assumptions for the fiscal 2023 forecast and the midterm business plan differ. Speaking under the same exchange rate assumptions, that is to say in terms of real volume growth, from now through fiscal 2026, we aim to secure an additional JPY 20 billion in volume through sales expansion that will also drive an improvement in our profitability. Similarly, structural reorganization will be carried out mainly in Europe, where we will consolidate and produce products for fossil fuel vehicles and raise the level of profitability here as well. Now that we have managed to get volume in hand, we are determined to work towards achieving 7% in segment income ratio. Looking at Page 18, this is the content of Bearings & Beyond, part of our current midterm plan. In this midterm plan, we have been working to expand our new product lineup to sales of JPY 50 billion by 2026. We have been proceeding with a 2-pillar approach: one is to contribute to a circular society and the environment. And as you can see on the left-hand side, we would like to build a business model based on Product Life Cycle Management or PLM, including product lifetime diagnosis based on our Condition Monitoring Systems, CMS. In addition, we would like to offer a lineup of products for the renewable energy industry and other special environments that naturally support a circular society. The second pillar on the right is about expanding and control and transmission systems, including actuators that combine rotational motion and linear motion, both of which are strong points. Thanks to the success of our ball screws for electric brake systems, we are now expanding the scope of these products. We are also talking with various customers in the medical field, such as about micromanipulators, which we are currently working on and to customers in the field of robotic mobility. Here, we are having ongoing conversations with a diverse range of clients. Currently, I feel that we are at 75% of the JPY 50 billion goal, but we will continue to work towards the JPY 50 billion target. And finally, looking at Page 19, we have shareholder return policy. As in fiscal 2022, in fiscal 2023, the full year dividend is maintained at JPY 30, although we have not been as profitable as we would have liked to be. In the medium term, we will continue to pursue a capital policy that focuses on stable shareholder returns. This ends my summary of our fiscal 2023 first half business results, revised forecast and progress on MTP 2026. Thank you.