Aeon Co Ltd

TSE:8267

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[江川 敬明, executive]

Hello. I'm Hiroaki Egawa, Executive Officer in charge of Finance and Business Management. Thank you very much for finding time to participate in today's Aeon earnings briefing. Without further ado, I'd like to provide an overview of our financial results for the third quarter.

The business environment in the third quarter of fiscal year 2022 was extremely difficult due to factors like soaring raw material and energy prices and further increases to procurement and electricity costs. Seasonal factors mean that the third quarter is always a difficult one for sales and gross profit as it is and rising procurement and electricity costs and other expenses meant the pace of profit growth was somewhat slow.

On a cumulative year-on-year basis, however, operating revenue and operating profit reached record highs. Although there was a loss attributable to owners of parent due to the impact of losses in the third quarter, there was a JPY 5.2 billion improvement in profit from the previous year. This slide shows cumulative consolidated third quarter results for the last 4 years from pre-pandemic fiscal year 2019 to the present.

All profit lines have increased from fiscal year 2020 onward and exceeded the results for fiscal year 2019. Now results by segment. The General Merchandise Store Business achieved the largest cumulative third quarter profitability improvement of all segments. Although the GMS business' operating profit remains negative, the year-on-year improvement was substantial.

Four other businesses also achieved year-on-year profit increases or profitability improvements. The Services and Specialty Store Business, which was heavily impacted by the pandemic. The International Business, which saw a rapid recovery in earnings, particularly in the ASEAN region, the Shopping Center Development Business and the Health and Wellness business. The performance of the Health and Wellness business slightly exceeded expectations, while the performance of the GMS, Supermarket, Shopping Center Development and Services and Specialty Store businesses fell slightly short.

The other businesses generally performed in line with expectations. As a result, consolidated operating profit was at the anticipated level. From the next slide, I'll discuss earnings by segment. First, the GMS business. The graph on the left shows cumulative third quarter performance from pre-pandemic fiscal year 2019 until the present. Although we reported an operating loss of JPY 14.8 billion, this represents a significant JPY 14.0 billion year-on-year improvement.

The graph on the upper right shows same-store sales and customer traffic. Although customer traffic wasn't as high as in the previous fiscal year, it was showing signs of recovery. And this, together with an increase in average unit prices, meant that the third quarter results for same-store sales in each month were up by more than 2% year-on-year. The table in the middle on the right shows year-on-year comparisons of Aeon retail same-store sales and year-on-year changes in gross profit margin by product category.

In the health and beauty and food categories, results were solid and up year-on-year for prescription drugs, pet products, delicatessen products and frozen food, which are growth segments that we're working to bolster. Although apparel category performance saw monthly fluctuations due to temperature-related impacts, sales and gross profit margins are improving, partly due to a recovery in outings related demand.

In the digital business, we've bolstered online preorder Black Friday sales events for products not normally sold in stores. Online sales during the Black Friday sale period were more than double those of the previous year, helping to boost the top line. Amid a succession of national brand product price increases from October onward, we continued with efforts to keep Topvalu brand product prices unchanged.

At the same time, we are making progress at tracking customers to all of our brands from the budget TOPVALU BESTPRICE brand to the added value brands Topvalu and Topvalu Green Eye. Aeon Retails Topvalu food sales were up significantly in the third quarter, rising 8% year-on-year.

Next, Aeon Retail's cumulative third quarter profitability. The graph on the left breaks down the year-on-year change in operating profit. Over the last 2 years, Aeon Retail has been working on structural reforms, including the reduction of inventory and fixed costs and has managed to improve gross profit by JPY 10.3 billion. Although utilities expenses were up JPY 7.3 billion year-on-year due to higher electricity unit prices, this increase was absorbed through overall SG&A expense control, resulting in a year-on-year operating profit improvement of JPY 11.1 billion. The upper and middle tables on the right show the fruits of Aeon Retail structural reforms. In the third quarter, the improvement in Aeon Retail's operating profit was flat due to the impact of higher raw material prices and electricity costs, but steady progress was being made with cost control. Since the fourth quarter has a large number of events, including the year-end New Year sales season and both sales and profits are expected to increase, we're maintaining our forecast for a return to the black for operating profit for the full year.

Next, the Supermarket and Discount Store businesses. The segment operating profit graph on the left shows that although profit was down from fiscal year 2020 and fiscal year 2021 when there was elevated dine-in demand, profit is up JPY 6.5 billion from the pre-pandemic level. Note that the cumulative impact of increased utilities costs on the Supermarket and Discount Store businesses over the first 3 quarters of this fiscal year was approximately JPY 17.0 billion.

As the graph on the upper right shows customer traffic has been recovering steadily since summer and is picking up. Sales have also generally been recovering since the start of the third quarter. As we head into the fourth quarter, consumer spending will presumably become even more cautious. In addition to store refurbishments, including expansion of sales areas and revamping our product lineups with a focus on delicatessen and frozen food products, we'll continue with efforts to improve profitability through labor saving and productivity enhancement initiatives.

Now, the Health and Wellness business. The upper right graph shows sales. The dark blue line in the middle shows prescription drug sales. Despite the impact of drug price revisions, the number of prescriptions processed was up year-on-year due to an increase in the number of drug stores able to process prescriptions. Gross profit was up year-on-year and also exceeded the forecast.

We continue to participate in a project of providing free of charge PCR tests and other tests at drug stores with prescription dispensing facilities. Due in part to the increase in COVID-19 cases, sales of related products such as antigen test kits, cold medicine and antipyretics were brisk. Cosmetics category sales also grew. As noted in the lower right corner, Welcia will steadily pursue its growth strategy by increasing the number of drug stores able to process prescriptions, opening new stores, M&A and so on.

Next, the Financial Services business. As the graph on the left shows, profit for this segment is above prepandemic levels. The table on the upper right shows the segment's domestic in overseas results. The recovery trend overseas is evident. Sales and profit were up year-on-year. This was achieved through the expansion of transaction volume with bolstered promotional measures, improved productivity through digitalization and expansion of the balance of operating receivables beyond the pre-pandemic level.

Profit was down in Japan due to sluggish cash advance balance growth despite a recovery in credit card shopping transaction volume. The bottom right table shows transaction volumes and operating receivables balances by category. All of the figures are up substantially year-on-year. The figures for shopping are also above pre-pandemic levels.

Next is the Shopping Center Development Business. Although profit for this segment remained below pre-pandemic levels, it is steadily recovering. The number of COVID-19 cases began to decline in Japan from September and measures to boost Aeon Mall customer traffic were implemented. In October, specialty store sales exceeded fiscal year 2019 results. We're anticipating a postpandemic revitalization of consumption, and we'll be working to further boost the recovery of customer traffic and expand sales.

In Vietnam, specialty store sales have been brisk. Our malls function as leisure facilities and are seeing high customer traffic levels, partly due to the government's transition to post-pandemic policies. We expect the current strong performance to continue. Results for the third quarter in China, which was July through September, indicated that performance was recovering toward fiscal year 2019 levels. One example to support this was that specialty store sales in July exceeded pre-pandemic results despite the stringent restrictions on activities imposed in some areas.

COVID-19 cases have been increasing nationwide since November, meaning that our malls have had to close temporarily at times, significantly impacting customer traffic and sales. Now the Services and Specialty Store business. The business returned to the black with a year-on-year profit improvement of more than JPY 10 billion. The service and amusement business companies whose customer traffic levels were impacted by COVID-19-related activity restrictions such as Aeon Fantasy and Aeon Entertainment, which operates Aeon Cinema saw significantly improved operating profit. Increased customer traffic at the facilities of these companies has been creating group-wide synergies contributing to increased customer traffic at our malls in other group company facilities.

Next, the International Business. Segment profit was JPY 8.9 billion, a significant year-on-year increase. The impact of the pandemic is lessening, particularly in the ASEAN region. Four international business companies achieved increased sales and increased profit or improved profitability. Among these, Aeon Malaysia was particularly successful in taking advantage of increased consumer opportunities to go on outings. It organized a series of events that help put tenant sales as well as the sales in all GMS business lines on a steady recovery track. As a result, Aeon Malaysia's profit was up JPY 3.6 billion year-on-year.

Aeon Vietnam also achieved significant sales growth in the GMS and supermarket businesses, partly due to the government shift to post-pandemic policies and digital transformation efforts also improved operational efficiency and reduced expenses. As a result, Aeon Vietnam's profit increased substantially, rising JPY 3.2 billion year-on-year. The China business also achieved year-on-year cumulative revenue growth and profitability improvement for the first 3 quarters, despite being impacted by COVID-19 locally.

Next, our preliminary figures for December and year-end and New Year sales by business. December for the first time in 3 years, Christmas and New Year holiday periods with no restrictions on activities. We boosted sales by preparing value-added products that bring a touch of luxury to dining tables and products that enable customers to save money while having fun as well as by expanding and enhancing sales areas in response to customers' demand for travel goods and gift items for people returning to their hometowns for the holidays or welcoming guests.

There was a sustained increase in COVID-19 cases in Japan during the eighth wave of infections. There were also logistics disruptions due to cold weather in some areas over the Christmas period. Despite these factors, however, as this slide indicates, sales in December, the Christmas period and the year-end New Year period, the biggest sales periods of the year were brisk in all businesses, except the China business.

The fourth quarter is when we generate the majority of our profits, and we believe the quarter got off to a great start. To end, I'd like to discuss our earnings forecast. There are no changes from our initial forecasts. Sales were generally in line with expectations in the third quarter. Sales are progressing steadily so far in the fourth quarter with favorable performance in December and the year-end new year period. Although the business environment is difficult, we intend to work together as a group toward achieving our full year targets.

This will involve closely monitoring changes in consumer sentiment and thoroughly implementing sales and cost control measures and pursuing the growth strategies of our medium-term management plan. That's all for me today.

[江川 敬明, executive]

For my first question, including differences among the business segments, how are business conditions over the past 3 months. I understand that they have been roughly in line with your projections, but were they closer to your best scenario or the worst one. Please tell us a bit more in detail which segments did well on an operating profit basis and which ones did not do so well.

Second, I would like to ask about your plans for the fourth quarter and the next fiscal year. In addition to various changes in the external environment, the rise in electricity fees is further accelerating. And there appears to be no end to cost increases. I also assume you were greatly affected by lockdowns in China. So how do you view the external environment now? We heard that sales were very strong in December and January, but how do you plan to achieve your full year targets?

Health and Wellness turned in a solid performance, thanks to strong sales of COVID-19 antigen test kits and fever medicines, the segment's results were quite satisfactory. Our ASEAN business also did well. National policies had some effect, but ASEAN countries shifted completely to living with COVID policies. While results differ somewhat among our businesses. On a country basis, results in Malaysia and Vietnam were quite good.

Overall, the ASEAN business did very well. Looking ahead, we expect conditions to be challenging and it is hard to say whether results in the GMS and supermarket businesses will be in line with expectations. These are core businesses, and I think their third quarters were a bit difficult. Third quarter indicators look tough. Cost are rising and gross profit and gross profit margins are looking a bit tight.

In addition, the GMS and supermarket businesses were greatly affected by electricity fees, and they took big hits in the third quarter. Although we are making efforts to control SG&A expenses, I think it has been a bit challenging.

Turning to the shopping center development business. Shopping Mall results may not look so bad on a year-on-year comparison. But customer traffic has not rebounded as much as we expected. We hope that will improve.

Looking at the fourth quarter, results from the New Year holiday and in early January look good. That said, I'm not sure if those strong results will continue from late January to February and beyond. The external environment is gradually becoming more difficult. So we will have to redouble our efforts. In China, where the fiscal year is different, many of our group companies fourth quarter ended in December. While some group companies are still faced with difficulties due to the lockdowns, their performance has improved considerably in areas where lockdowns have been lifted or are beginning to be lifted. Of course, we do not yet know just how much COVID-19 will spread in China. But we see some signs that the situation may be improving a little.

Your explanation indicates that results are trending in line with your plan, but are the disclosed results closer to the middle or lower end of the target range than the upper end of that range.

We consider them to be in the middle.

I have 2 questions. First, I would like to ask you for more details about the status of the structural reforms in the GMS business. Over the past 2 to 3 years, Aeon Retail's inventories have decreased, especially in apparel and the recent level is only about JPY 100 billion. From now until the next fiscal year, I understand that you will be strategically introducing new apparel items, including private brand products. So I assume you will start accumulating inventory.

You said that the third quarter was difficult due to seasonality. But looking at the year-on-year changes in GMS operating profit in the first, second and third quarters, it seems that the size of improvement is gradually shrinking.

The numbers seem to indicate that structural reforms peaked in the first quarter and further improvements are not coming so easily. Even so your current numbers look good. And I wonder if you think there is room for further improvement in the GMS business' profitability from the fourth quarter onward.

What areas other than inventories do you see as growth drivers? And how do you plan to improve GMS profitability in the future?

My second question is about expenses. Can we understand that utility costs have risen more than you expected? Or are those costs as you expected? In addition, I think utility costs will continue to rise into the next fiscal year. So how much do you expect them to increase?

I also think current conditions and sentiments appear favorable for rises in personnel costs and wages. So what are your thoughts on raising the wages of part-time and full-time employees at this point in time.

GMS inventories are steadily declining and are now on the verge of reaching our target level. We, therefore, do not plan to keep reducing inventories. As you pointed out, the size of improvement in operating profit has slowed somewhat. One reason is the gross profits have declined slightly.

Another major factor is the large year-on-year increases in our electricity bills in one quarter after another, despite our efforts to control this cost. I believe this answers your first question. Regarding your second question about utilities costs, after the first half of the fiscal year ended, I may have said that utility costs would be JPY 20 billion in both the third quarter and another JPY 20 billion in the fourth quarter. The actual results for the third quarter was about JPY 17.5 billion, slightly lower than expected.

In the fourth quarter, the cost is expected to increase up to around the JPY 20 billion level in comparison with the fourth quarter a year ago. We are preparing for annual utility costs in the next fiscal year to rise by several tens of billions of yen in the worst case.

We cannot predict with any certainty at this time because utility costs will change depending on the exchange rate and the price of crude oil and LNG. But we expect our estimates for next year are likely to show an increase rather than a decrease from this year's level.

As for personnel expenses, the company has not announced exact figures. So I cannot comment here, but I believe the total amount will increase by several tens of billions.

[四方 基之, executive]

I am Motoyuki Shikata, the executive in charge of the strategy, and I will now provide some additional details. Our structural reforms to improve the GMS business are being made in several stages. First, we implemented what might be called defensive structural reforms, including inventory reductions.

The reforms made up to now focused on resolutely cutting costs and creating a leaner cost structure that has helped improve profit. Now Aeon Retail is moving forward with more aggressive structural reforms. For example, we are promoting initiatives using digital technology and launching product renewals. I think we still have ways to go with these efforts.

As for gross profit margins, we are taking another step forward as we proceed with product renewals. As we explained when we announced second quarter results, we are strengthening the promotion of our Topvalu private brand products. In particular, we are turning mainstream Topvalu products into higher value-added products. The pandemic and inflation have made pricing a key concern of consumers. While appealing to customers with the low prices offered by our BESTPRICE brand, our mainstream products are generating profits by appealing to their search for value. These initiatives are contributing to our progress in improving the gross profit margin mix. Next, personnel expenses were mentioned earlier, but I think we should not look at personnel expenses in isolation, but must also consider productivity. This is an area we are working to improve by introducing digital technology. In particular, we are expanding the use of self-checkout and cashless payments.

In addition, we are increasing online supermarket sales. I believe Aeon Retail has room to make further improvements, leveraging on these digital initiatives. We believe that these efforts will not only bear fruit this year, but also will have a positive impact next year. Another thought focuses on 2 points related to personnel expenses. The first is something now under consideration. Aeon employs about 400,000 part-time employees in addition to full-time employees. And I think wage allocation should be weighted toward our stores as they have a close connection with people's everyday lives.

The other point is that I think increases in personnel expenses at other companies is positive for us as it presents us with an opportunity to increase sales. Even in the midst of inflation, people need to buy daily necessities. If rising personnel expenses means higher wages, I think the retail industry will be the first to capture new opportunities to increase sales.

Next fiscal year, we want to think more strategically about how we can use these factors to steadily increase sales and profits.

Regarding the sales ratio of full price items, the ones in apparel sales may have been depressed in the third quarter and have not recovered owing to seasonal factors. But would it be correct to understand that they are improving now?

I understand that Aeon Retail has room to improve margins and productivity in the next fiscal year, but do you plan to continue the strategy of freezing the prices of private brand products that are not in the value-added category.

Apparel gross profit margin is improving because the sales ratio of full-price items is increasing in addition to the inventory reductions. As this will hold true for next year, our private brand strategy will have 2 components: value-added products and our BESTPRICE Prizefighter brands that aim to provide quality satisfaction equal to or better than that of top brands at the best price available in each region.

In fact, we are also launching new and improved versions of our BESTPRICE products. For example, we recently renewed our noodles in a cup product. We changed the production method and realized noodles with a 2-year texture. Although these renewal products are still part of our BESTPRICE lineup, they deliver new value that has enabled us to raise the price.

Rather than freezing the prices of all products, we want to offer new and improved versions so that price changes are not simple price increases. First, your presentation had the nuance that you graded Aeon Retail's results as just barely passing. Cumulative third quarter operating profit increased slightly. But if we look only at the third quarter, excluding segment transfers, operating profit was about JPY 1.2 billion less than a year earlier, which I think falls short of a passing grade.

A good December may have made up for the shortfall. But does the company think this result is good. You were forecasting being in the black for the full year. But even if you say the first half was good, it was still in the red. Considering the external environment and your low profit margin, aren't you feeling a sense of crisis that requires you to shift into a higher gear and accelerate reforms?

My second question is about the large online supermarket dedicated customer fulfillment center to be established in the new fiscal year. It will be operated by AEON NEXT, but please tell us as much as you can about its impact on profits.

First of all, Aeon Retail was affected by the recent eighth wave of COVID-19 in the third quarter. Although I don't want to blame the results on such external factors, I think it contributed to a somewhat weak performance. However, I think there remains room for Aeon Retail's performance to improve.

We are not satisfied with the recent figures, and we'll step up efforts to improve them. In the fourth quarter, in particular, the indicators are high. So we want to make a concerted effort to turn things around.

Next, as you pointed out, our first customer fulfillment center in Chiba is scheduled to start operations next year. At the moment, I can't give you any numbers, but we will release them to you all as soon as they become available. Also, I hope everyone will visit the center, if you can. I don't know how that will be arranged, but I would like to be able to show this center to all of you.

The online supermarket business currently shows a big opportunity loss. I think it will be a digitalization strategy that complements brick-and-mortar stores. However, it will require a large investment over the next fiscal year. So I wonder if it would be wrong to take a slightly negative view of its impact on profits.

It will be in its first year. So we want to run tests and ensure a smooth launch. In that sense, I think it will have some negative implications for profit. That said, we do not consider AEON NEXT to be an alternative to Aeon Retail's online supermarket. The ability to have 50,000 SKUs will be a major strength of the customer fulfillment center and its 24-hour operation will increase delivery capacity. It will meet a wide range of delivery needs, including making deliveries and time slots that Aeon Retail has not been able to handle.

In the past, many customers wanted to use the online supermarket, but the delivery time was not convenient. There was much demand in Tokyo and elsewhere for deliveries in the early morning before people commute to work. While responding to those needs, we want the new online supermarket to take advantage of its 50,000 SKUs and Ocado solution system to provide customers with a new experience that cannot be realized by conventional online supermarkets. For starters, we plan to conduct tests in the next fiscal year and monitor the progress.