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Thank you very much for waiting. We would now like to start Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Net Conference on Interim Financial Results for Fiscal Year Ending March 31, 2021. I will serve as the emcee. My name is [ Kanye ] from the IR Office Financial Planning division. As for today's proceedings, we will have Tetsuya Yonehana, Senior Managing Corporate Executive and group CFO, to give a briefing on the overview of the interim results for about 15 minutes, and then we will have Q&A. We expect total time of the conference to be around 50 minutes. Before we begin, let me give you some reminders. In our briefing, we may state our future projections based on our current forecast, but they are all accompanied by risks and uncertainties. Please be informed that the actual results may differ from our projections. Now let us begin the briefing. Mr. Yonehana, please.
This is Yonehana. Thank you very much for joining us for this MUFG Net Conference late in the evening. Please look at the material entitled Financial Highlights Under Japanese GAAP for Second Quarter of Fiscal Year Ending March 31, 2021. Please look at Page 2. In the upper left table, line 3, net operating profits reflecting profits from our main business. Although there were reductions in business volume due to COVID-19 and impacts from market changes, there were increases in market-related gains. There were also increases in revenue coming from consolidation of overseas subsidiaries. With expense controls, net operating profits were up JPY 113.3 billion year-on-year at JPY 740.4 billion. Lines below net operating profits, spread of COVID-19 caused increases in credit risk around the world. With our overseas subsidiaries adopting a new accounting standard called CECL, credit-related expenses increased. In line 6, profits attributable to owners of parent was down JPY 206.1 billion year-on-year at JPY 400.8 billion. The first half results compared against the full year target of JPY 550 billion we announced at the beginning of the fiscal year, the progress rate is above 70%. At this moment, it is difficult to project an early containment of COVID-19, but various measures are being taken to adapt to the changes in the environment caused by the pandemic, and they are offsetting some of the negatives. Also, expense reduction efforts are being accelerated. Because of these positive factors not factored in at the time we set our initial target, we are raising the full year target for fiscal 2020 by JPY 50 billion to JPY 600 billion. On shareholders' return, from the perspective of maintaining stable dividends, in line with our announcement in May, dividend per share will be as we projected at the beginning of the fiscal year, JPY 12.50 for the interim period and JPY 25 for the full year. Now I'll talk about some of the key measures in the first half of the year. Please look at Page 3. In this pandemic, we decided that our highest priority is securing the safety of all stakeholders and maintaining stable financial functions. As shown here, we have been responding to requests for financial support in dealing with changes in the pattern of behavior in a speedy, appropriate and flexible fashion. On our work on, ESG as COVID infection spreads, we strongly recognized the importance of stability in society. We are stepping up our efforts, including in areas where financial services cannot solve social problems. Also, we newly issued our sustainability report, which compiles our efforts on ESG. In our digitalization strategy, we are promoting our digitalization efforts, including launch of new financial services in collaboration with Grab and partner banks. In order to further integrate our digital and business strategies, we have decided to consider establishment of a new business group that integrates the function of digital transformation promotion and part of the customer group. This new business group will cover customers who are mainly served through non-face-to-face transactions. By expanding digital contact points with our customers and by improving user experience, we aim to strengthen business competitiveness and the customer base. With digitalization of business in this new business group as a catalyst, we will accelerate digital transformation across the entire firm. Please look at Page 4, our results. Starting with income statement summary. Left-hand side table, line 1, gross profits. It was up JPY 123.8 billion year-on-year. Now the breakdown, line 2, net interest income. While income from loans and deposits declined, with lower rates in the U.S., treasury income increased. And with the consolidation effect of Bank Danamon of Indonesia, it was up JPY 32.4 billion year-on-year. Line 3, trust fees and net fees and commissions, the so-called fee income. Due to the spread of COVID-19, card payment and solution business-related fees declined, but there was a consolidation effect of FSI, an asset management company based in Australia. So it was up JPY 5.7 billion year-on-year. Line 4, net trading profits and net other operating profits. Market-related income made a big gain, becoming a major factor behind the increase of gross profit. Line 6, G&A expenses. There was the consolidation effect of Bank Danamon and FSI, but since we worked on expense reduction and control, the increase was contained at JPY 10.5 billion in total. As a result, line 7, net operating profits were up JPY 113.3 billion at JPY 740.4 billion. Expense ratio at the bottom in line 20 came down to 64.6%. Next, line 8, total credit costs. There was a global credit risk increase due to COVID-19. In addition, there was the impact of new accounting standard at overseas subsidiaries. So it was up JPY 240.3 billion year-on-year to post credit costs of JPY 258.4 billion. Next, line 9, net gains on equity securities. Due to smaller write-downs, gains were up by JPY 6.5 billion. Line 12, equity in earnings of equity method investees. Mainly due to the contribution profit of Morgan Stanley, we posted a profit of JPY 153.1 billion. As a result, line 17, profits attributable to owners of parent was down JPY 206.1 billion year-on-year at JPY 400.8 billion. Please turn to Page 5. Lower left graph gives the breakdown of changes in net operating profits on year-on-year basis. GCB, which is responsible for overseas non-Japanese SMEs and individual clients saw profit grow by JPY 55.3 billion over the same period previous year, thanks to the consolidation of Bank Danamon and increased profit at currency. With respect to the other customer segments, R&C, which is responsible for individual and SME customers in Japan; JCIB, which is responsible for large Japanese corporates and GCIB, responsible for large global corporates, were impacted by the reduction in business volume due to COVID-19 and profits of these segments declined, while Trust Assets Business Group achieved increasing profit as global IS profit rose. As a result, the profit of the customer segment as a whole increased by JPY 5.8 billion year-on-year. Global market reported significant increase in profit, mainly because of increase in profit of Treasury business through flexible portfolio management. Next is the balance sheet summary. Please go to Page 6. As shown on line 3 in the left table, overseas loans decreased by JPY 3.9 trillion since the end of March last year. On the other hand, domestic corporate loans increased JPY 3.3 trillion, resulting in a decline of JPY 0.6 trillion overall. Deposits, on lines 12 and below, increased including domestic individual deposits, domestic corporate deposits and overseas deposits. Total deposits rose JPY 14 trillion. Next page, Page 7, shows the change in deposits and lending -- deposit and lending rates. The left graph shows the differences in yield between domestic lending rate and deposit rate. As the second from the top line graph indicates, the differences in yield continues to shrink as the low rate environment persists. The right graph shows changes in overseas deposit lending rates. The bottom line graph is the differences in yield between foreign currency lending rate and deposit rate of the bank and the trust bank combined. The third from the bottom is currency net interest margin and the top line is the net interest margin of Bank Danamon in Indonesia. All of these declined affected by the fall in market interest rate. On the other hand, the second from the bottom line graph, the net interest margin of MUAH in the United States rose by virtue of initiatives such as portfolio improvement. Please turn to Page 8. Balance of risk monitored loans at left has increased since the end of last fiscal year, reflecting the deterioration of the portfolio caused by the stagnation in economic activities stemming from the spread of COVID-19 infection. But as shown with the line graph, in comparison to the past, risk-monitored loans ratio remains at low level. I would now like to direct you to Page 9 to discuss the status of investment securities, including equity and JGB. The balance of investment securities on line 1 of the left table gained by JPY 9.5 trillion year-on-year. JGB on line 4 increased JPY 10.2 trillion. Foreign bonds on line 7 decreased by JPY 1.9 trillion, with the implementation of flexible portfolio management during the first half of the year. Unrealized gains of foreign bonds on line 7 dropped, but when domestic bonds on line 3 are added, our realized gains of bonds total remained at over JPY 800 billion level. Page 10, capital adequacy summary. Common equity Tier 1 capital ratio is 12.2% on the finalized Basel III reforms basis and continues to be at a sufficient level. Please turn to Page 11, fiscal 2020 targets and dividend forecast. The upper half of the page is fiscal 2020 targets. Interim profits attributable to owners of parent achieved more than 70% of the full year target, which was announced at the beginning of the year. Furthermore, the impact from the COVID-19 was estimated using certain assumptions at the beginning of the term, but the changes in the environment during the pandemic brought positive impact in the first half. Therefore, we are revising the full year target. Net operating profits on line 1 in the table was larger than expected due to the increase in foreign currency deposit balance through customers' efforts to secure liquidity and upswing from strong performance of overseas securities subsidiaries that successfully captured the market trends. In addition, because of COVID-19, expenses were strenuously controlled. Based on these, JPY 100 billion of upward revision to the target announced in the beginning of the year is made. Total credit cost on line 2 is unchanged from the initial forecast in terms of general outlook, but the environment requires us to remain vigilant regarding the credit cost. Moreover, overseas subsidiaries increased provision in the first half. And in view of overall risk, given uncertainties going forward, we raised the anticipated credit cost by JPY 50 billion from the initial number. Additionally, potential upswing in net gains on equity security and equity earnings of equity method investee are taken into account, as we revised upward the profits attributable to owners of parent from the initial target of JPY 550 billion to JPY 600 billion. Dividend per share, as shown in the lower section, is JPY 12.5 for the interim and JPY 25 for the year-end based on the policy of maintaining stable dividend. That concludes my presentation.
Thank you, Mr. Yonehana. We will now take questions.
The first question is from Mr. Takamiya from Nomura Securities.
This is Takamiya from Nomura Securities. I have 2 questions about the breakdown of the revision of your net operating profits target and your new business group. First, net operating profits target revision. I'd like to know the contributions from each business group. Just a rough number will do. And if that is difficult, then can you give a split between global markets and customer business, whether it's 50-50 or 70 to 30? Second, about this new business group on Page 3, what kind of an organization is this going to be? What's the scope of business and the customer segment? For example, is it going to be a headquarter to prepare for establishment of a new digital bank? What's the character of this new business group? Can you talk about that?
Thank you, Mr. Takamiya. The first question, about the breakdown by business group of the JPY 100 billion upward revision of the net operating profit target. A rough split is global markets, 50%; other customer groups, the remaining half. Of the customer groups, GCB accounts for about half of that. For other groups, slight upward revisions were made in each business group. So that's the breakdown. And the new business group related to digital. In this new organization, mainly customers who are served with non-face-to-face transactions will be covered. So that is the customer segment. First of all, at the bank, there are 37 million accounts of individual customers, of which those customers who are served by a bank representative assigned to them is only a fraction of them. So for those customers who are not served personally, we are thinking of ways to serve them, including through digital means. The group will take on such functions. In addition, this new digital business group could be used as a model to be applied horizontally across the bank, to drive digitalization on a firm-wide basis. That is another function that is assumed to be borne by the group. Specifics will be worked out going forward. But in terms of customer segment and the functions, this is what we envisage.
Thank you very much. We will now take next questions. Mr. Nakamura of Goldman Sachs Securities, please.
This is Nakamura from Goldman Sachs. I have 2 questions. The first is about the change in the risk-weighted assets on the page showing CET1 ratio. Excluding unrealized gains, it is flat from the end of March to the end of September at 9.6%. I think this is due to the impact of risk-weighted assets staying flat and not increasing much despite your initial outlook that the risk-weighted assets will increase. Could you elaborate on the increasing and decreasing factors? What kind of movements did you see in the risk-weighted assets from March end to September end? That is my first question. The second question is about the revised credit cost forecast. The number was increased to JPY 500 billion by JPY 50 billion. That certainly seems right based on the pace during the first half. But looking at the results of U.S. banking subsidiaries, I would expect that CECL reserve will become smaller from Q3. What are you focused on as risks in the second half? What are the probabilities of these risks?
Thank you for your questions. The question was about the movement between the end of March to the end of September in CET1 ratio and risk-weighted assets. Could you turn to Page 10 of the financial highlights. As shown on this page, credit risk on Basel III basis is on line 16 of the table on the right. Various items other than loans are also included here. This is where there is an increase of risk-weighted assets by JPY 560 billion. Under the current regulation, because of the capital floor adjustments, et cetera, there is a decline. But the question from Mr. Nakamura was based on finalized Basel III, excluding the unrealized gains on investment securities, which is 9.6%. So I will set aside the floor adjustment for the moment. Looking at the credit risk. There is an increase of JPY 560 billion on Basel III basis. The breakdown is as follows: there are 3 factors related to loans. Based on the current Basel III for the credit risk, there is a slight decline in the balance. But it would be fair to say that it was almost flat. Domestic loans increased while overseas loans declined and the overall balance decreased slightly. There was a slight reduction, but this can be considered almost flat. In addition, risk-weighted asset increased by small margin due to the impact of the credit ratings of our customers. Therefore, the impact on the balance was almost flat or a slight increase, and there was some increase due to changes in credit rating. The rise in the market value of equity holdings also led to some increase in credit risk. On the other hand, foreign exchange fluctuations resulted in some decline in RWA. Taking these into account, on a net basis, the increase was JPY 560 billion. What is more, on finalized Basel III reforms basis, risk asset measurement methodology will become more sophisticated. That is an added element. This time, CVA-risk weight have the largest effect. Basel finalization document issued in July was applied, which resulted in the reduction of risk-weighted assets by close to JPY 2 trillion. There are increases and decreases that I did not mention before. All of these considered risk-weighted assets on finalized Basel III reforms basis declined by JPY 0.7 trillion from the end of March. Those are the factors pushing up or down the risk-weighted asset on finalized Basel III reforms basis between March and September. Next question was about credit cost. I believe it was about our outlook on the second half in relation to upward revision of JPY 50 billion of credit cost this time. As you correctly pointed out, in May, we announced JPY 450 billion as our estimate. After the end of the first half, around JPY 250 billion of credit cost was booked. And as it was pointed out in the question, of the JPY 250 billion of credit cost during the first half, JPY 169 billion is the credit cost of what we call 3 partner banks overseas that apply CECL. In particular, MUAH in the United States initially posted CECL, but if economic indicators do not deteriorate, CECL will not be very large. In the first and the second quarter, certain level of CECL was posted. This is also disclosed in the Q3 financial statements. Our expectations are that 3 partner banks combined will book around JPY 40 billion, which will result in a slight decline in CECL in our October -- in our October-December quarter. Based on this, we are announcing the revised credit cost of JPY 500 billion. This is similar to me in that we are making the best estimate at the given time. We took into account bottom-up calculation and macro adjustment after looking at the entire macroeconomic environment in reaching the forecast of JPY 450 billion. This time, the forecast was revised to JPY 500 billion as we considered the recent improvement in COVID-19 situation. As for the expectations of economic recovery in the advanced economies, in May, we expected that by the end of 2021, recovery to 2019 level would be achieved. But looking at the recent trend, the expectation now is that the full recovery may take a little while longer despite the quick initial recovery from the bottom. In view of the recent second wave and the third wave of COVID-19 infections, certain risk should be taken into consideration. For these reasons, our best estimate this time is JPY 500 billion. But the probability of this materializing is difficult to say, but this is our best estimate at the moment. It is very difficult to foresee the impact of COVID-19. Therefore, we will continue to carefully monitor the situation.
I have a follow-up question. Based on the current best estimate, where do you see risk in terms of business segment or customer segment?
I would like to respond by referring to the industrial sectors rather than to business segments. Those affected by the pandemic, including by movement restrictions, are sectors related to consumer spending in airline and aircraft finance. I believe these sectors are most affected. Since this is a pandemic, overall economy is also impacted, but the degree of the impact is different in different industrial sectors and companies. The sectors that are most affected warrant careful observation.
Next, Mr. Matsuno from Mizuho Securities.
This is Matsuno from Mizuho Securities. I have 2 questions. There may be some overlap with the earlier question from Mr. Nakamura. First is about the new target of credit costs. It was raised by JPY 50 billion. Now looking at it by bank. According to what you said, am I correct in understanding that this is something that is being projected at the commercial bank? That is my first question. Second question is about the use of surplus capital. At the beginning of the period, risk-weighted assets were projected to go up by about JPY 5 trillion. But now there has been a slight decrease. And CET1 ratio is higher than the initial projection. Can you talk about your thinking on the use of the surplus capital?
Thank you for your questions, Mr. Matsuno. The credit costs, we are now projecting JPY 500 billion for the full year. And as you point out, at the 3 partner banks, in the third quarter, things are more subdued compared to the first and second quarters. We are estimating some in the fourth quarter, but in the third and fourth quarters, it may be at levels in line with initial projections. And about the probability of this actually being incurred, I said this is our best estimate, and it is the bank's portfolio that we have to keep a close watch on. Second question about the use of surplus capital. Initially, at our results announcement in May and at the subsequent investors briefing, we said that the risk-weighted assets at the end of March 2021 may go up by about JPY 5 trillion. That is what we explained back then. Our current projection is, in terms of the first half from March end to September end, as I said earlier, it has declined by JPY 0.7 trillion. Actually, the upgrading of our risk measurement method contributed to a reduction of about JPY 2 trillion. Excluding that, it was an increase of JPY 1 trillion plus. Having said that, compared to the original projection of JPY 5 trillion, this is only a slight increase. Now going forward from September end to March end, how we are looking at it. The JPY 5 trillion increase that we initially talked about, we are now projecting about half of this increase. That is our current estimate. Having said that, the impact of COVID-19 on the loans is still unpredictable. But our current estimate is that it may not go up as much as what we anticipated back in May. That is how we are looking at it. When that is the case, about how to use this surplus, currently, there is little visibility on COVID-19's impact on the economy and we still have to navigate in this environment. So first, on capital, well, we retain it internally, we believe we need to think about how to deal with our customers' needs. We will control our risk-weighted assets while dealing with customers' needs. If certain assets do not make sense in terms of its risk return profile, we may decide to sell such assets or reduce the amount. We will continue to operate in such a way. That's our policy. Thank you.
We now have the next questions. Mr. Niwa from Citigroup Securities.
This is Niwa from Citi. I have a couple of questions on equity holdings and net fees and commissions. Regarding the former, how do you evaluate the first half and wiser outlook for the second half given the COVID situation? On the latter, net fees and commissions, some of your peer banks have shown substantial improvement. How would you assess the first half? And what is your view on the second half? That is to say, since the risk-weighted asset will not increase in any significant way, how should we anticipate the movements in net fees and commissions?
Thank you, Mr. Niwa, for those questions. First, regarding equity holdings, about JPY 50 billion was sold on acquisition cost basis in the first half. This is similar to the first half of the previous year, where the sales of equity holdings was also around JPY 50 billion. Even though we were in the middle of the pandemic, in the first half, we were able to sell at the same level as the previous year. Now as regards to the second half, based on what we understand thus far, I believe that the equity holdings will be sold at a certain pace. I am not able to give a specific amount, but in the second half, there are plans to sell a certain size of equity holdings. Although we expected difficulties during the COVID pandemic, we were able to make a reasonable progress. This fiscal year is the final year to achieve the target of JPY 800 billion sales of equity holdings. After achieving JPY 50 billion in the first half, the total comes to JPY 783 billion, and we believe that the initial target of JPY 800 billion is within reach. Next, turning to the question on net fees and commissions. Trust fees and net commissions and fees combined recorded JPY 5.7 billion rise in profit. This included the effect of consolidation of FSI and Bank Danamon. Excluding these, the profit was down by around JPY 34 billion. It was about JPY 35 billion minus. Because of consolidation effect, the result was positive growth, but excluding this consolidation effect, it was negative. Areas that were significantly impacted include credit card, foreign and domestic exchange fees and domestic securities primary commission fees. These areas were down year-on-year. And real estate was also down. I believe that the impact of the stalled economic activities in the first half is reflected here. As for the other megabanks, in comparison to them, our numbers may have been minus. But in the second half, economic activities and sales activities are reserved and we would like to build on that. To what extent in comparison to the first half is difficult to say in such an environment, but we would like to achieve recovery.
Next question is from Ms. Nishihara from JPMorgan Securities.
My first question is, how to look at shareholders' return and capital ratios? For the first time in a while, it's at 9.6%, excluding OCI, the target that you are now focusing on. I recall you were looking at CET1 ratio of 11% and 9.5%, excluding OCI. Can I ask you what target levels you are looking at now? Also, let me ask for some clarification about risk-weighted assets on a finalized Basel III reform basis. It's a technical point. You were saying that at the end of this period, it will be about half of that level compared to the level at the beginning of the period. Am I correct in thinking it's not half of JPY 5 trillion, but that its increase will be about JPY 1.5 trillion on a finalized Basel basis? Is this the correct way of looking at this? This is my first question. My second question. U.S. long-term rates have been rising from about 60 to 70 basis points to now about 90 basis points to 1%. For your firm, once it goes up to about 1%, what kind of impact will it have on your profits, on your PL and balance sheet? Is it a positive or a negative? Once again, can you talk about that, please?
I believe our target capital ratio was your question. In managing our capital, in our current midterm plan, what we have been saying is that, on a finalized Basel III reform basis, 11% including unrealized gains and excluding OCI, 9.5%. There's not much change in terms of our thinking here. Now on top of that, depending on the prevailing situation with a view to the future, on top of this 11%, we think about how much buffer do we want to have. That is the judgment we make at each particular point in time. Currently, it's at 12.2%, including unrealized gains, 9.6% excluding unrealized gains. They are higher than the capital ratio that we set for ourselves. Having said that, with COVID-19, what would happen to our profits, our credits and assets? We believe we need to take a cautious view of these things at this juncture. That is our thinking right now. In a related matter, your question about our risk-weighted assets projection for March end on a finalized Basel III reform basis. Can you give me a moment, please? My earlier answer may not have been clear enough. At March end 2020 on a finalized Basel III reform basis, risk-weighted assets were at JPY 116.6 trillion. And from here, by the end of September, it came down by about JPY 0.7 trillion. Toward March end next year, even if it should go up, the increase will only be about JPY 3 trillion. Comparing March end against the March end, the increase may be about half of originally projected JPY 5 trillion. That is our current view. About your second question, U.S. long-term rate rise. I believe there are possibly 2 aspects: short term and long term. One is that a rise in long-term rates would reduce unrealized gains. This is a short-term impact. Another is through steepening of the yield curve, net interest income or income from bond investment would be expected to increase. This is a longer term impact. There are these 2 elements. So there are both positives and negatives.
Thank you very much. About your first point, earlier in the press conference, Mr. Kamezawa, the CEO, was talking about CET1 ratio on a Basel IV basis, excluding OCI. He said he wanted to be between 9.5% and 10%. Therefore, he will not yet consider a share buyback until the fiscal year-end. I believe that is what he was saying. Can I take it that it is unchanged at 9.5%?
9.5% is our criteria. But given the current situation, we want to have some buffer. I believe that is what Mr. Kamezawa meant by saying between 9.5% and 10%.
Next question is from Spencer-san of BofA Securities.
I have one question. It may be a silly question. The share price is at a historically low level, but why are you not buying back shares? Morgan Stanley is contributing hugely. And I believe you can easily achieve profit of around JPY 600 billion. Why are you not buying back shares at this moment when share price is low?
Thank you for your question. The question was on share buyback and the level of share price. As you correctly pointed out, share price is at the same level as before the [ epidemics ]. But in terms of PBR, it is lower at 0.3x. It is a historical low in the history of MUFG share price. I see it as the lowest bottom based on PBR. In that sense, we are not satisfied with the current share price. On the other hand, based on the current environment, given the uncertainties due to COVID-19, it is difficult to buy back shares right now. In any event, when we have more clarity on the capital level and the financial performance outlook, we would like to decide on the share buyback.
Thank you very much for all of your questions. With this, we would like to conclude the Q&A session. Before we end today's conference, I would like to invite Mr. Yonehana for closing remarks.
Thank you very much for all of your valuable questions. As I talked today, the outlook of the business environment remains opaque in many respects because of COVID-19, and I may not have been as clear-cut in my answers, but we continue to emphasize the importance of having dialogues with our shareholders and investors. And we are determined to continue to work hard to manage our finances and capital well. I would like to ask for your continued support and understanding. Thank you very much.