Tokio Marine Holdings Inc
TSE:8766
Earnings Call Analysis
Q2-2024 Analysis
Tokio Marine Holdings Inc
Amidst a challenging economic climate marked by natural catastrophes and capital losses in North America, the company has demonstrated resilience, posting a 9% year-over-year increase in normalized projections to JPY 675 billion, excluding one-off effects. The international business has exhibited strong underwriting results, particularly from entities like Delphi Financial Group and NTMSR in Brazil, helping to offset negative developments like increased natural catastrophe occurrences.
With a robust profit momentum, the company announced a dividend per share (DPS) for fiscal '23 to remain unchanged at JPY 121, reflecting a 21% year-on-year growth. Additionally, the share buyback for fiscal '23 will be ramped up to JPY 120 billion from the initially announced JPY 100 billion. This underlines the management's commitment to ensuring that shareholder returns move in lockstep with profit growth.
The company's top line has seen significant growth, with a 7.5% increase in net premiums written, despite a slight 1.3% decrease in life insurance premiums. Adjusted net income for the entire group was JPY 275.5 billion, slightly below the expected progress rate due to one-off factors like natural catastrophes and currency depreciation. However, the underlying business remains strong. For the full year, adjusted net income projections on an actual basis are down JPY 15 billion from the original forecast to JPY 655 billion, still representing a 6% year-over-year increase.
The company has been dealing with issues such as fraudulent insurance claims at a subsidiary and is actively working on damage recovery and customer support. They are also responding to concerns about price-fixing allegations within the Japanese non-life insurance sector, with ongoing investigations by a special committee.
Management emphasized the importance of governance, particularly in light of recent incidents, signaling efforts to prevent recurrence and contribute to industry transformation with improved transparency. The qualitative targets for the next midterm plan, which will focus on balancing growth with governance, are set to be announced in the forthcoming investor relations briefing.
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Hello, and good evening, everyone. This is Komiya speaking. I thank you for sparing your time with us this evening despite your busy schedule. I'd also like to appreciate your continuous understanding and support you extend towards Tokio Marine. First of all, I would like to explain about the earnings highlights and messages from the management based on such highlights.
Please turn to Page 3. There are mainly 3 points I would like to convey to you today. First is the continued strong performances. Looking at the most recent earnings, although we are impacted by natural catastrophes and capital loss in North America, underlying profit, excluding one-off effects continues to perform well, especially by key overseas entities. In fact, full year projections on a normalized basis, excluding one-off effects, is revised upward by JPY 5 billion to the JPY 675 billion, and that would make year-on-year 9% growth.
Second point is on shareholder return. As I have been saying, I still believe that profit growth and DPS growth should be in tandem to each other. Since profit momentum is strong, DPS in fiscal '23 will be unchanged at JPY 121, and that will be 21% year-on-year growth of DPS. [ Tokio ] capital will be adjusted with the discipline. Recent ESR remained strong at 133%. On top of that, there is also one-off profit to be generated from group reorganization. Considering various factors, including business investments and current M&A pipeline and other factors comprehensively, share buyback for fiscal '23 will increase from the original announced JPY 100 billion up to JPY 120 billion. This will be explained in more details from our CFO, Mr. Okada later on.
The third point is concerning various incidents of TMNF, which we know is causing concerns among consumers and market participants.
On the issue of fraudulent insurance claims at Bigmotor company, as we have news released in August, we are prioritizing recovery of damages being down to customers and we are executing better such as support for safety checks for customers and proactive insurance policy grade adjustment. And so far as well as going forward for fraudulent insurance claims, it will be not tolerated. We will be dealing with this issue dedicatedly. In the issue of price fixing among Japanese nonlife insurance as we have a news release in September, there is ongoing investigation by a special committee headed by several external lawyers. We cannot disclose any findings from this investigation. However, TM Holdings will instruct and monitor steady implementation of initiatives to prevent recurrence of similar matters by TMNF. On top of that, on the group level, we will strengthen and enhance governance on group level, so much to eliminate concerns and anxiety currently felt by stakeholders.
So the first point about the continued strong performance, I would like to explain about this in more detail. Please turn to Page 4. First is on top line. Financial performance in the first half of the year was the net premiums written increased by 7.5% and life insurance premium decreased by 1.3%, both exceeding the original projections we had at the onset of the year. These numbers include some yen depreciation impact, but even if we exclude the FX factor, I believe we can say that the business momentum is still strong, mainly due to increased revenue from rate increases and expanded underwriting in the international business and also increased sales for domestic specialty insurance. Therefore, we are revising the top line projection upwards, specifically, excluding FX on a year-on-year basis, net premiums written we'll have upward revision to year-on-year plus 3.6% in life premium to year-on-year, minus 1.7%.
Next, we will explain more about adjusted net income. Please turn to Page 5. Adjusted net income for the entire group was JPY 275.5 billion, that makes progress rate for this year to be roughly 41%, which is lower than the average focus rate of 44% at this time of the year from the past 5 years. Main reason for this is one-off factors such as natural catastrophes and impact on the yen depreciation for domestic P&C business. Excluding these one-off factors, I would say that the underlying business condition is still strong. Let me explain about each business in more detail.
First, on Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire business. The pace of nat cat budget spending is accelerated due to July hail damage and [ multi-fan ]. Also projection of yen depreciation led to increase in provision for results of foreign currency-denominated outstanding claims. These 2 factors make the rate of progress to be low, but exceeding these one-off factors, roughly, we are still in line with [indiscernible]. Recently, we had a hike in auto loss ratio compared to the original fiscal year plan. And in response to that, we are hiking auto premium rates in January 2024. That will be premium hike as for the product revision and top line growth surrounding specialty insurance continues to be [indiscernible]. For international business, progress in the first half of the year, excluding FX impact in amplifying in profit in yen terms was 49%, almost in line with the plan. There is no change to the color of business since we had explained about this in August at the first quarter earnings. So against the negative developments such as natural catastrophe occurrence, capital loss in North America, loss reserve development in overseas runoff reinsurance business are being offset by strong underwriting results by key entities such as Delphi Financial Group, NTMSR in Brazil as well as increase in North American investment income, making international business to be in line with the plan.
Now I will explain about full year adjusted net income projections. Please turn to Page 6. Full year adjusted net income projections on an actual basis for fiscal year '23 is down JPY 15 billion from the original projection to JPY 655 billion or up 6% year-over-year. This is due to the robust underwriting performance of key overseas entities, gains from sales of business-related equities while also taking into account the increase in nat cat losses from wildfires in Hawaii and increase in capital losses in North America. A large part of capital losses in North America comes from recording reserves for CECL. This is a result of a deep dive based on rise in interest rates, deterioration of office demand and current real estate market conditions. Tokio Marine will leverage our long-term and predictable funding characteristics to manage solidly with appropriate risk management in place.
Please turn to Page 7. This is full year adjusted net income projections on a normalized basis, excluding one-off factors, such as natural catastrophes, exceeding average year level. In a sense, this represents our current performance on a normalized basis that will be the launch pad for fiscal year '23 profits, up JPY 5 billion from the original projection to JPY 675 billion. Compared to a normalized basis profit of the previous year, this is up 9% year-over-year. I'd like to say that our underlying capability is steadily rising. The growth drivers of profit continue to be both focused, strong underwriting and strong investment income. In other words, the company is realizing world top-class profit growth organically. Tokio Marine is indeed on a journey of profit growth. We are at a different stage than before. I intend to take steady steps to achieve even higher highs, and that is all for me for now.
Thank you very much, Mr. Komiya. And now I would like to ask Mr. Okada to cover capital policy.
I'm Okada, CFO. I will cover shareholder return. And therefore, please turn to Page 8. As we have said in the past, our shareholder return is based on dividend and the policy is to increase DPS sustainably in line with profit growth. As Mr. Komiya mentioned earlier, adjusted net income on an actual basis will be revised slightly down due to one-off factors. But 5-year average adjusted net income, funding source of dividend has increased from JPY 400 billion to JPY 475 billion, roughly the same level as original forecast. Therefore, DPS for fiscal year 2023 will be maintained at JPY 121 as originally planned at a plus 21% DPS growth.
Please turn to Page 9. Regarding capital level adjustments and share buyback as a means to adjustment, our stance remains intact. In other words, as always, if there are M&A or mistaken opportunities that contribute to increasing corporate value and ROE, we will execute those deals. But if we are not blessed with such an opportunity, we will execute share buyback. And now as stated in the document, our current ESR is 133% within target range and strong. In addition, as shown on Page 42, we moved, transferred pure shares in North America directly under TMNS in the same way as other overseas group companies and this stock transfer as a result is expected to generate onetime profit of about JPY 40 billion. This profit as a definition of adjusted net income is deductible, therefore, by nature, will not be reflected. But through increase in net assets, it will be reflected in ESR number end of March next year. In addition to this, by taking into account current M&A pipeline, business environment, among others, comprehensively, share buyback in fiscal year '23 will be increased from the originally announced JPY 100 billion for the year to JPY 120 billion. To be more specific, JPY 50 billion has always been decided and executed in the first half, executing for the remaining JPY 70 billion has decided in the Board meeting held today. We will continue to steadily execute our business strategies, raise EPS and ROE and respond to the expectations of the capital market. That is all for me.
Thank you very much, Mr. Okada. And now I would like to ask Mr. Komiya to cover governance-related matters before closing.
Again, this is Komiya speaking. Before closing our initial comments, I'd like to say a few words on governance and management's thinking. Page 10 of the slide deck summarizes recent incidents at TMNF and I have covered this at the outset. Addressing individual cases and putting countermeasures to prevent recurrence, among other things, we will take as a company goes without saying. We intend to take ownership in contributing to the transformation of the P&C industry in Japan with transparency.
On Page 11, you will find issue analysis and actions at TMHD Holding covering not only Japanese issues, but also overseas issues. The expansion and diversification of our global business has potentially led to a variance in the maturity level of internal controls in each business. There may be businesses where it is preferable to step up holding devolvement than before. While we have been developing and strengthening various frameworks, there may be an opportunity for us to more effectively utilize diverse and external perspective, that is how Holdings sees the incidents from a group management perspective. Next week, at the IRR briefing, I will announce the qualitative targets for the next midterm plan.
Strengthening group level governance is 1 of the main pillars. By utilizing external perspectives, we will bring integrated group management to the next level where high-quality management is realized that balances growth and governance at a high level. Your continued support and understanding is greatly appreciated and that is all for me.