Barrick Gold Corp
TSX:ABX
Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2023 Analysis
Barrick Gold Corp
The slower expansion at Pueblo Viejo, a key growth project, is affecting the ability to meet the year's gold production guidance, with projected output now below the low end of the 4.2 to 4.6 million ounce target.
Despite setbacks in gold production, copper is tracking well with the aim to hit the guidance of 420 to 470 million pounds for the year.
Financial indicators are showing strength, with operating cash flows up by 35% to over $1 billion, free cash flow increasing significantly to $359 million, and a 26% rise in adjusted net earnings per share to $0.24.
The company's strong balance sheet provides the foundation to continue investment in growth projects, sustaining development momentum.
There has been a focus on Journey to Zero safety goals, amidst setbacks due to two fatalities. Environmental efficiency progressed with an 85% water reuse and recycle rate and a 6% decrease in emissions compared to the same period in 2022.
The Nevada Gold Mines witnessed a 14% production increase over 2022. Turquoise Ridge, in particular, underwent a turnaround, contributing to the overall success. Additionally, anticipation is building for a positive decision on Goldrush before year's end, which could further enhance prospects.
Veladero in Argentina exceeded production forecasts and reports positive projections for 2024. New opportunities are being pursued in Latin America and the Asia Pacific regions, with sites like Veladero in the process of extending mine life and the Reko Diq project in Pakistan on track to become one of the world's largest copper mines by 2028.
The Porgera mine in Papua New Guinea is moving towards reopening with a potential Tier 1 status, while the Loulo-Gounkoto complex in Mali continues to demonstrate exemplary performance and potential for consistent reserve replacement.
This region has been a consistent performer post-merger with ongoing exploration indicating further growth likely, particularly in Tanzania which shows promise for significant discoveries.
The expansions at Lumwana and the Reko Diq project are set to elevate Barrick into the ranks of major copper producers while maintaining their top gold portfolio. These projects are expected to begin production in 2026 and 2028 respectively.
Consistent production at Jabal Sayid in Saudi Arabia and Zaldivar in Chile anchors a stable operational base. There is also an ambitious exploration focus that extends to the Arabian-Nubian Shield which could open new mining prospects.
With a track record of over 125% reserve replacement since 2019, the outlook suggests a potential 30% growth in gold equivalent production by the end of this decade, indicating a strong future production profile.
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Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. This is the event operator. Welcome to Barrick's Results Presentation for the Third Quarter of 2023. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this event is being recorded and a replay will be available on Barrick's website later today, November 2, 2023.I would now like to turn you over to Mark Bristow, President and CEO of Barrick. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I'd start with the current globals -- global metals and minerals environment, which really reminds me of the past 20, 15 years when the mining industry stalled after a very good run, compounded this time by inflation pressures and a few or no new discoveries and a chaotic global order. Then as now, it is plagued by the obsessive short-termism of governments and investors alike, who demand instant gratification and reach for immediate solutions dismissing the long-term nature of mining, whether you're building a sustainable business or a better world, you need careful -- carefully considered strategies and practical plans to achieve one's goal.Whether that's the global transition to renewable energy or a business that creates and delivers real value to all its stakeholders, wishful thinking won't get you there. That's why Barrick has a long-term vision of its future and a strategy, which as I'll show you in the course of this presentation, is organically designed to deliver value today and growth tomorrow by building real partnerships with our host countries and other stake -- key stakeholders.As every quarter, today, I'll be making some forward-looking statements, so please take note of this cautionary statement, which is also available on our website.As you can see from the KPIs, it has been a very busy quarter. Gold and copper production were both up on the previous quarter and have been up quarter 1 to quarter 2, quarter 2 to quarter 3. But we did have some setbacks, notably the slower ramp up of the expansion of Pueblo Viejo, our flagship organic growth project in the Dominican Republic. This is impacting on our ability to achieve our gold production guidance for the year. But as I've often said, mining is a long game and we don't manage Barrick quarter-by-quarter. Even though, with the slower ramp up at PV, we still expect that mine to exceed 800,000 ounces for 2024 and our group projection of a 30% growth in gold equivalent production by the end of this decade remains intact.Otherwise, there is lot of good news during the quarter, particularly the progress we're making with our other growth projects, Lumwana and Reko Diq, and a strong financial performance. I'll tell you more about these and the other KPI's as we go through the presentation.The operating results for the quarter were, as I've already said, an improvement on the previous quarter with higher gold and copper production at lower costs. We are expecting a further improvement in production in the fourth quarter, but as I pointed to the annual production is now expected to be marginally below the low end of the 4.2 million ounce to 4.6 million ounce range. Copper remains on track to achieve its guidance of 420 million pounds to 470 million pounds.As you can see here, the financial results were strong, with operating cash flows growing by 35% to more than $1 billion quarter-on-quarter. Free cash flow up significantly to $359 million, and a 26% increase in adjusted net earnings to $0.24 per share. Barrick's robust balance sheet secures our capacity to continue investing in our growth projects independent of the market, both new and existing, while we continue to reward our shareholders through dividends.While growing our business, we have also been driving a new safety culture, including a new set of standards and initiatives to keep improving this important part of our business. We call this the "Journey to Zero." Sadly, this key priority was impacted by 2 fatalities during the quarter, which are deeply disappointing for me and the company. We remain highly motivated to achieve these zero goals, and during the past quarter, we've developd and revised Fatal Risk Management program to help ensure that we stay on course with our Journey to Zero.Barrick has continued the very pleasing trend of increasing the amount of water we reuse and recycle at our operations. And for quarter 3 recorded an 85% efficiency rate. We also continue to make good progress towards our Scope 1 and 2 emissions targets. And during the quarter, the Group, including our power plants, posted a 6% decrease in emissions compared to the same period in 2022.A key milestone in the terms of Tailings Management was also achieved during the quarter, as Barrick confirm -- conformed to the Global Industry standard on Tailings Management and published its disclosure of all very high and extreme consequence facilities on the 4th of August. Our teams have already commenced work to fulfill the requirement of the standard for our remaining facilities by 2025.Consistent with most gold companies, Barrick's Scope 3 emissions, which make up at least 40% of our total emissions, are mostly within Category 1, which is our suppliers; and Category 3, fuel and energy transmission. Through our extensive supplier engagement and data collection process over the past 3 years, we were able to set qualitative and quantitative targets that are achievable and measurable, as disclosed in this slide.Turning now to the operational review in North America, already the largest gold miner in the United States, we are committed to expanding our continental footprint beyond our substantial base at Nevada Gold Mines, or NGM for short, into other prospective parts of the United States as well as Canada. And I'll also -- as I'll show you later, we're making significant progress with these endeavors.Nevada Gold Mines performance is led by Turquoise Ridge, where a successful turnaround exercise by its new management team has increased production by 14% against the same period in 2022, helped by the successful commissioning of the third shaft. The mine has one of the highest grade orebodies in the industry, but at the time of the merger was struggling to live up to its potential. It now once again fully justifies its Tier 1 status. The lessons learned at Turquoise Ridge, mainly about the critical importance of teamwork and plant maintenance are now being rolled out at the other NGM mines.As we often stress, NGM is rich in growth opportunities, and there's a strong exploration drive to replace reserves as well as to find the next big stand-alone discovery. It's delivering very promising results in the 3 trends shown here, notably Leeville in the Carlin trend, Goldrush in the Cortez trend and the extensions at Turquoise Ridge. Drilling results from across the NGM portfolio have already provided support for its 3-year reserve and resource replacement plan.The Barrick owned Fourmile project adjacent to Cortez's Goldrush, but not part of NGM merit special mention. Fourmile is by some distance the best undeveloped gold asset in its class, and we fully expect it to become a long life, high value mine. Conceptually, combined with Goldrush, it will be the largest gold mining operation in the Americas. The long wait for the government record of decision on Goldrush has been frustrating, but the notice of availability for the final environmental impact statement for Goldrush was published by the EPA on October the 27th, so we expect to receive the record of decision before the end of the year as previously guided.This is an overview of our expanding work and land consolidation across North America. As you can see, we have many growth opportunities beyond NGM, and as we work through this in the coming quarters, we'll give you more clarity on exactly where we're building those footprints. Across the U.S., our teams are hunting for and securing significant early stage opportunities to feed into our project pipeline. In Western Nevada, Phase 1 drilling has been completed at Pearl String, with Phase 2 scheduled to start soon.Further north, at the advanced Donlin project in Alaska, which boasts a very large resource, we are progressing key work streams to continue moving it up the value curve, as detailed in the slide. And in Canada, fieldwork was successfully conducted on 3 properties, building confidence and advancing each project towards testing priority target concepts.We moved now to Latin America and the Asia Pacific region, where we have been expanding our exploration portfolio. The main focus, however, has been, as I've mentioned in the introduction on the ramp up of the expanded Pueblo Viejo Mine and the updating of the Reko Diq feasibility study. At the time of the merger, the Tier 1 Pueblo Viejo asset was destined to stop mining this year and processing by 2030, constrained as it was by low grades and a lack of tailings capacity. A visionary expansion project has unlocked and optimized 20 million ounces of reserves, extending the mine's life well beyond 2040, at an average annual production rate in excess of 800,000 ounces.A project of this size always comes with risks and challenges. And in the case of PV, it was the failure of the gearboxes for the flotation cells and more recently, the partial failure of the end of the new conveyor belt to the single-stage SAG mill. Long-term engineering solutions have been developed with the design engineers and original equipment manufacturers, and temporary fixes have been employed, including the use of mobile crushers. The equipment failures have restricted the scheduled commissioning and ramp-up, but the remedial measures taken by the team are allowing the work and production to continue and certainly the ramp-up, albeit at a slower pace.Despite the challenges, as I mentioned at the beginning, we still expect PV to produce more than 800,000 ounces in 2024. In the meantime, the new tailing storage facility, a crucial part of this expansion has received the environmental permit and the resettlement of the project affected people from the site will start in 2024.At the beginning of the year, you might remember Veladero was a very stressed operation with a combination of operational and geopolitical challenges. We chose to cut back the mine plan and capital, while we consider the mine's future in the context of the risk. In the interim, the mine's new management team has done an excellent job operating in this environment, and Veladero is now set to achieve the above the top end of its annual production guidance.During the quarter, the mine increased production and reduced costs, and we expect it to be in a positive cash position by the end of the year and to post a positive outlook for 2024. The successful completion of its Phase 7A leach pad has encouraged us to start the construction of Phase 7B, which is scheduled for completion before the onset of winter in the Andes in mid 2024.Across LATAM, we are looking at new opportunities in the Dominican Republic and Chile. We have recently secured a substantial land package in Ecuador and established a pipeline of permitted drilling targets in Peru. We're also working on extending Veladero's life by adding back some resources that were previously removed from the mine plan.And in Pakistan, the site infrastructure at Reko Diq is now in place, and we're making good progress with the update of the feasibility study scheduled for completion in the fourth quarter of next year, with Lycopodium having been appointed as our project engineering partner. Seismic surveys of aquifers in the area indicate potential to meet the mine's immediate water supply needs, and drilling has commenced to confirm the potential of these aquifers. Construction of the mine is scheduled to start in 2025 with 2028 targeted for first production. When it is fully operational, Reko Diq will rank among the world's top 10 largest copper mines.[ Chah ] as elsewhere, Barrick is very conscious of its social license to operate, and in line with our pledge to roll out benefits for the local community, well before mining started, we have delivered three primary schools, a health center and a mobile clinic to the surrounding villages. Last quarter, we also launched an International Graduate Program in Balochistan, with an initial intake of 9 outstanding graduates, 4 of them women. Our intention is to start cultivating a cadre of future experts and leaders for Pakistan's fledgling mining industry. And we also plan to start the training of future employees from the region targeting the first thousand by early 2025.In Papua New Guinea, it's been a long and winding road towards the reopening of Porgera. But the end has finally been brought into sight by the granting of a new special mining license and the execution of the mining development contract and a fiscal stability agreement. We are engaging with the landowners to extend the current compensation agreements to enable restart before the end of the year. Detailed reopening and ramp-up plans are in place and we're taking all the preparatory steps to be ready for that day. It's been well worth our while to persist with Porgera, it's a significant asset with real Tier 1 potential.My introduction to the Africa and Middle East regions part of the presentation has been the same every quarter, and it's no different this quarter. The region has been Barrick's most consistent performer since the merger. It's also a highly prospective exploration destination and a core growth engine for the Group.The Loulo-Gounkoto complex in Mali delivered its usual strong performance and fully deserves its place in our Tier 1 portfolio. It has an exemplary record of consistent reserve replacement and ongoing brownfield's exploration indicates that it's likely to sustain this. Deep framework drilling is currently testing for repetitions of the high grade Yalea system. And elsewhere on the site, new high impact targets have been identified, while a project-wide review has highlighted opportunities along strike in south of Yalea and at depth at Gounkoto and Baboto. The greening of the complex grid continues with Phase 2 of its solar farm scheduled for completion before the end of this year.Barrick is Africa's largest gold miner and Kibali the continent's largest gold mine. It has recovered well from a slow start to this year and is on track to meet its guidance as well as to replace depleted reserves again. Kibali is a leader in automation and mining and a poster child for renewable energy. Since operations began, we have built 3 hydro power stations at Kibali. Together, these stations currently meet more than 70% of the mine's electricity needs. Once its 16-megawatt solar facility with battery storage is commissioned, the mine's electricity needs will be met entirely from renewable energy for 6 months of the year, reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by over 19,000 tonnes of CO2 equivalent annually.The 2 Tanzanian mines production were lower than in the previous quarter, but this is in line with their plans, and they remain on track to meet their guidance for the year. In order to sustain their combine Tier 1 profile for decades to come, North Mara plans to extend its life through an optimized pit plan, while the strategy of brownfield's growth continues to deliver at both North Mara and the long life Bulyanhulu.There's still great potential for world-class discoveries around our operations and further afield within the Africa and Middle East region. These are some of the many opportunities from Zambia in the South to Saudi Arabia in the North. With its wealth of resources and our strong partnerships there, Tanzania is a particularly strong candidate for our next million ounce discovery.In Zambia, the expansion of Lumwana is along with the Reko Diq project, another of our key growth projects, and together they will make Barrick a major league copper producer, complementing our peerless Tier 1 gold portfolio. We've accelerated its feasibility study for completion towards the end of next year with construction starting in 2025 and 2026 targeted for first production mirroring Reko Diq's timetable.Lumwana's 50 million tonne per annum process plant expansion coupled with the planned Super Pit will lift copper production to some 240,000 tonnes of copper per year over a minimum of 36-year life of mine. And several additional targets are expected to extend this mine life further.Our other copper mines, Jabal Sayid in Saudi Arabia and Zaldivar in Chile, both delivered consistent production. Jabal Sayid, a joint venture between Barrick and Ma'aden is serving as a springboard for expanding our very successful partnership. New permits around the mine are being brought to account and we're expanding our focus beyond the current Jabal Sayid catchment area and up to the Arabian-Nubian Shield, which we believe is poised to become a major new mining destination.Ladies and gentlemen, value today and growth tomorrow has been the theme of this presentation. And I believe we're equipped to deliver both on the back of our uniquely successful and sustained organic replacement of depleted reserves, coupled with a disciplined long-term growth strategy. As you can see here, since the merger in 2019, we've replaced 125% of our reserves. Looking to the future, as demonstrated, we expect reserve replacement and our organic growth projects to increase production by some 30% gold equivalent by the end of the decade.And so, thank you for your attention. And I'll hand you over back to the operator to manage questions, and we'll be starting high in London with the first question.
Dan Major from UBS. A couple of questions. First one just on the guidance for this year, you've obviously indicated [ 3 or so percent ] below the bottom end of the range on production. Can you give us a steer on the cost trajectory in Q4 at a group level and where you expect to land for the year relative to the top end of the guidance?
Yes, I think -- and so, the big driver in the growth that has been clipped back has been Pueblo Viejo expansion. That's still going to grow significantly in quarter 4. So, -- and again, the -- all the regions are growing and we expect our forecast for quarter 4 will be better than quarter 3. And with that will come an improved cost profile as well. So that trend continues as we set out to do for the quarter. The impact is in the actual expansion of PV. And I'll just explain a bit to you because I think people would like to know. And that is, when we commissioned the -- this is -- we commissioned the largest float cells ever built. And the OEM who supplied that -- those floats, we've used certainly my whole career. And they underdesigned the gearboxes and the shaft. So we've been able to retrofit and engineer a temporary solution. So those float cells are now working, but the supplier has agreed to send us completely new assemblages by the end of this year and they'll come in one at a time.And so by the end of the year, we'll have that problem properly put to bed. And the engineered solutions might last us 2 years to 5 years, but normally float cells will last decades. So we want to get it done properly. And at the same time, a bit like what happened in Loulo a couple of years ago, the end of the very large conveyor belt failed right at the end and that's the feed to the run of the crushed or stockpile for the single-stage SAG mill.We are experienced in this because as I pointed out, it happened with us before. And so we jumped around and installed a whole lot of mobile crushes to be able to manage that situation. And again, we have a series of conveyors that have arrived on site for our dolomite process upgrade. And we're going to use those -- we actually, as I speak, installing them, and we'll use those in the short term period, so the next 4-odd months, while we reconstruct that piece of the conveyor belt.And so, we are expecting that production will range between 70% and 75% of planned throughput and we've now continuing with the ramp-up now. And this is a very complex flotation circuit. What we've effectively done, what we did with PV is that it had run into a part of the orebody, which is the rest of the orebody, 20 million ounces, which has got a grade of around 2.4 grams a tonne, and we needed to jack up the throughput. And so the way we did it, our process experts is we installed a very big float circuit in the front end of the plot and increased the whole combination part of that front end.So then, what the float does is it concentrates the gold and more importantly the sulfur, which allows the -- and we put in flash coolers into the autoclaves. And so, now we can go back from a 14 million tonne front end plant back to a 10 million tonnes rest of the process. We're putting in the same amount of gold. We dropped the costs materially because there's not a lot of processing in that circuit. And that unlocks the entire 20 million ounces.And PV is a very low cost producer. We produce our own power. It's natural gas fired power station. And it's -- and it's a very efficient operation all around. It's very compact, the mining is efficient. And so we have a profile, it'll range between 800,000 ounces and 1 million ounces out to beyond 2040. And that's really the impact in the short-term this year. But the big driver of the increase from this quarter to next quarter is still that project.
One more, if I might. Particularly prominent concerns in the industry around expropriation, nationalization elsewhere outside of your portfolio. If we go to Pakistan, obviously, there's been a checked history in this asset. Two questions. What gives you the confidence in the framework agreement that you're coming to now that a Cobre Panama situation is not going to occur down the line? And the second is, in the Randgold days, you was talked at 20%, IRR at 1,000. What's your hurdle rate against this backdrop for Reko Diq?
So, Daniel, after 40 years, I think I understand my way around the mining industry. And I would point out that when we did the merger with Rangold, the Barrick portfolio, my recognition was the high nature of the quality of the assets. But every single asset had a problem. Argentina was in trouble. Tanzania, both mines were closed by the government, and exactly what you reference what you're referencing.Porgera was ultimately cancelled the permit. Reko Diq had been nationalized. There was -- Nevada was an inefficient arrangement of assets because of Barrick and Newmont owning assets intertwined and which should have been managed together, which they are today. And you look back, you go fast forward to today and look back, we've dealt with all those issues.The last challenge, which is also an opportunity, is the Pascua-Lama process. But what we did do is fix Veladero. And so it creates and it's not about your agreement. It's about your license to operate. You can have -- you can pen any agreements in this modern world, whether it's in a developed country or an emerging market country, you can do that.If you don't and that's what I've said for many years, and you know this. I've said, the most important stakeholder in a mining venture is your host country, not your shareholders, because if you get it wrong, your shareholders end up with nothing. And so for me, and it will be that for my whole career, very early on, that's how we built Rangold.Focused on your license to operate. Make sure you share the benefits, the economic benefits with the host country and the people in that country. So employ locals, develop local management, and then you'll be able to manage most crises. But if you don't have a social license any as we're witnessing for the umpteenth time and it's not particular to just this last year. If you don't have a social license, you could have any agreement you like, it doesn't save the day. So I think we're -- and it doesn't mean it's all Utopia, you've seen the work we've had to put in Tanzania to get where we are. And today, we're a preferred partner. We're the biggest contributor to the economy in the entire nation, and that comes from accusations that we never gave anything.And so, Mali, we've been through many challenges in Mali over the years. I think, I've been through 16 different governments and 3 crews. We're still operating, and we have a very strong social license in Mali. Doesn't mean to say we don't have challenges. And I think there's a message to the industry that, that is an important component of mining today. And mining today has got a lot of work to really establish its credentials to ensure that it can fulfill what the world needs from mining, because without mining, we will never have a world that's in good shape for future generations.
Alan Spence, BNP Paribas Exane. I got 2 questions. I'll take them one at a time. The first one just on Carlin, the big drop in the open pit grade, that was the ore from Goldstrike stopping, taking more from the stockpiles. How do we think about that through '24 and the great progression?
Well, that's closed now. And so it's about, I mean, the big challenge in Carlin is -- and Goldstrike, what I've done with Goldstrike is we've put and it was -- it's always been a filler in our production and management try to make it a core business, and it's not. And so we've put that in a separate category and we'll manage that going forward. Leeville has done extremely well. The new remnant mining is a tough enterprise, as you know. So there are parts of our remnant mining, the old sections of Carlin that are still have a lot of new mining blocks we've been able to get ahead of the faces and drill out a future for them, but Goldstrike is not one of them.And then the open pits, we are transitioning from those open pits, but the core focus for us to is expanding into the north through Leeville. And there's a lot of gold in Leeville, and we are drilling brownfield extensions right along that Carlin trend today.
And then on the portfolio, just one operating asset in Canada. I know you've talked about wanting to have more there. I'm just interested in, since the transaction when you're here taken over, why hasn't more been done there? Has it been the case that the opportunities you've looked at wouldn't compete on geology or valuation? Or is it something else?
So there's been a lot of M&A in Canada, as you know, and a lot of -- and we've participated in just about everyone, and we've walked away from it. And what we have done is built a very significant portfolio now and we just referenced in the presentation the 3 key projects that we're taking now to drilling, and they're all in the right place. And our geological team there is as good as any of the teams we've got.And I guess, from everyone in Canada, particularly have this view that we deserve to do M&A or should do M&A. And M&A is part of a business that as the market -- we we're talking about the other day, and Kevin made a very good point. Assets at some place in the market will always offer value. But in other stages of the market, they offer a serious risk. And we saw that in 2011, when the entire mining industry blew its brains out. Every one of them, even Glencore is selling assets to survive. And the reason I'm here with the Rangold team and along with the Barrick team, is because Barrick and the other big gold assets did the same.So, it's -- and for us, we're business. It's all about business. We're not about being big for the sake of being big. We believe in relevance. And there will be times when we have an opportunity to create value through acquisition. And we started out the merger with 3 very aggressive acquisitions, all at market, all at market. And there will be another time when we get another opportunity to do exactly the same.In the meantime, we just didn't rely -- it's not a strategy to rely on M&A. And right now that's the mining industry, because it's ex growth. And Barrick is a standout, we have -- despite the fact that we didn't do those M&A transactions, we can show you 30% growth hasn't cost us any money, it's just cost us effort. And the gold portfolio has got a steady growth out to '27, '28, as we showed you in our Investor Day this recent one in 12th of September. And the copper profile is significant. And more importantly, we've got 5 years of actually planned replacement of gold. So we've got our brownfield exploration drilling way ahead of the face to be able to show that we will convert inventory to resources, resources to reserves over that 5 years. And of course, as the years roll forward, we do more on that.And then we've got the new projects coming in. Lumwana is going to dump a whole lot of copper reserves, the Lumwana expansion into our portfolio and Reko Diq even more. And on top of that, about 15 million ounces of gold in our reserves. So not only are we replacing the reserves we mine in our current Tier 1 assets. And I would point out our Tier 1 assets are by definition rather than made up. And that growth that we're talking about is new growth and it's both gold and copper, because Reko Diq is that classic asset you want as a gold miner. It's got copper in it and it's got a lot of gold in it as well.
Mark, lovely to have you back in London. Just on this chart, with your growth from '22 to '29, can you just remind us the cost of that? And how the sort of capital spending comes over the next few years? And I see we're sort of growing our debt levels from below of a couple of years ago. What do you think peak debt might be in order for us to achieve this goal?
So, Justin, as you know, we come here every year by design to give this presentation in the LSE. If it wasn't for the stock exchange not requiring us to do a full IPO to continue our listing in London, we'd be listed here. So, just apropos of nothing.On the capital side, so let's start with Lumwana, it's about $1.6 billion to $1.9 billion. We're still in with the feasibility study, but we'll be with around there. And that's -- and that's we should at market, at consensus prices, it's about $800 million, [ Simon ], that we would fund from Barrick. And so that's -- it's an easy project for us to do. Whatever you -- the copper prices up or down, we'll put a bit more in or a bit less.But again, that's a -- and if I take you back to Randgold, we've got -- and we can talk about this a bit. We've got -- our gold assets are well stacked up and we've got long life assets now drilled out. So, in the scenario that you find us today, remember when we built our gold -- our gold mines out in Rangold in the early 2000s, gold prices was not very high. But as we built it, the gold price kept rising and we just delivered value for our owners. And so it's -- there's one good place to build copper mines, and that's when the copper price is low, and particularly right now, because I don't think any of us believe that the copper price is going to stay at this level. But we've got the gold strength to support that development. And also all our -- and then Reko Diq, it's about $5.5 billion for the first phase and 3.5% for the second phase, but that still needs refining because we are doing the work on it. And we've got some big opportunities to reduce that first phase of $5.5 billion. And that's on 100%, sorry.And then we also, as we've disclosed, working to project finance half of the first phase. So for Barrick, it's very affordable. If you look at whatever gold price you use, and we have used a $3.75 -- $3 per pound copper price initially. And because of the gearing in the project finance, Reko Diq comfortably exceeds the 15% IRR. And so again, that's a project that's easily managed. We have -- Goldrush is a $1 billion investment. It's a high-grade mine. It's easy -- again, easy to fund. That's on a 100% basis. And the other big capital project is PV. And that was a $2 billion project, we have $1 billion into that. So those are the projects as they stand. I'll ask Graham to have -- to indicate to you the profile, our capital profile.But you talk about debt, we don't really go into tax of debt. And because, I would just point out, everyone in the industry listen to people like you, not you because you never do it. But most fund managers asking for more and more dividends in an industry where it's capital intensive if you're growing it. And you notice we didn't do that, although we distributed significant amounts of cash back to our shareholders, it was based on our P&L and our free -- available cash, not going into debt to pay dividends. So today, we've paid down the debt to almost 0 leverage. We've spent $7.5 billion-plus into our business. And we've dividend-ed out at around $6 billion with all cash returns. That's significant value we've created. And we're now -- and now we've got these projects where they all pass our filter of 15%.We look at return on capital investors of around 10% and IRR of around 50%, depending on the project. But Reko Diq is exceptional because we believe we can gear it that it gives us that sort of return. So you want to finish my -- finish the question?
Yes. So Justin, I mean, as Mark has alluded to, we've got these 2 big capital projects that are on the horizon, and both of those are scheduled to really start ramping up in 2025. So the sort of peak years from a capital point of view or 2025 and 2026. So this year, we'll spend around $2.5 billion on an attributable basis for our capital. Next year, we'll see a little bit more, just as we start to spend some money on those sort of in advance of those feasibility studies being completed at the end of 2024. Then 2025, those are our peak years and then 2020 -- sorry, '25 and '26 are sort of peak years. And then 2027, it starts to come back down again as those projects roll off. So, the key point that Mark is making on those, even if we use commodity price assumptions below the current spot prices, so if you use consensus prices, which are -- you have a declining profile, we don't build debt through this period, the cash flow from our business funds all of that capital. So, we don't have any debt buildup on that basis.
So, whichever way you cut it, Justin, you need to buy some more stock. Anybody else? Okay.
Thank you. We will now begin the telephone question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]The first question comes from Lawson Winder with Bank of America Securities.
Great, operator. Hello, Mark. It's very nice to hear from you. I would like to ask about Donlin. So in your project growth discussion in the MD&A, you mentioned exploring further partnership opportunities to unlock value. And I just wanted to check, is that to suggest that Barrick is seeking a sale of a portion of its interest in Donlin?
I don't. I'm not following you. I don't think we say that with reference to Donlin. So, I've shown you this slide, I don't know if you can see it. But if you go back to the North American exploration slide, what we're busy doing. So let me explain to you when we closed the transaction, Donlin had a global resource. It didn't really have an ability to model where the gold deportment was. And so, we've advanced our understanding of the ore body over the last couple of years. And we've also really gotten into some details in the different phases, the different geological domains of the ore body and got to understand their variograms. And so we're now in a position where we are absolutely comfortable about the modeling and the ability to optimize our mining -- mine plans.And that's -- we've got a little bit more drilling to drill out some of the gaps, and so the first bullet here is the continuation of our geology work to -- and we want to build in some measured resource. At the moment, we got most of the resource covered in an indicated category. And this will be able to now -- and we've done our preliminary mine plans and modeling and pit scheduling. But with this, we can really go and start optimizing it, and that's the next step. And at the same time, while we did that, we were able to collect more and more samples to continue with our metallurgical test work and processing trade-offs, and we've got some -- we got to build a lab scale testing facility to be able to simulate some of our metallurgical flow sheets.And then the next one is, one of the big things that have changed in the last few years is the cost profile and the capital cost, particularly. And so, we need to refresh all the capital estimates for that design. So once we get a real handle on that, and it's not far away, we'll be able to do that. And then the important other aspect is because power, power, cost, power generation, power strategy has all changed. And so, there's work to be done there to make sure that we have that part of the project, which is a critical part of this project well understood. And we've still got some permitting to complete, particularly around the storage -- tailing storage facility. And then you start getting to a stage where you can actually understand what -- at what gold price this project will be viable as an investment.And for us, we're a very focused gold mining company that has an obsession about sustainability. And a big 32 million to 36 million ounce resource is important in our portfolio. And certainly, in my career, I've watched ore bodies go from unprofitable to significantly profitable over time. And if you just go back to '99, gold price was 260. Today, it's 2,000. And if you look at the average grade of the industry, it's been declining materially as people can use higher gold prices to make money. So that's -- and that's the way we look at it. I can honestly say there hasn't been a day we've considered putting it out in the market for sale.
Okay. Thank you. And then just on exploration, there is a discussion again of North Leeville. So it's great to see that exploration success there to-date. And I was just wondering, is there expected to be an additional maiden resource as of year-end 2023 for that Fallon Miramar gap? And then is there any expectation for any significant update on North Leeville resource in any way for this year-end update?
Yes. I think we'll be updating our reserves and resources at the end of this year, as we always do. And with that will come some, we'll definitely point to some of these emerging projects. They're extensions, but they're material extensions. And so, let's -- we'll make a decision. I mean, we'll share that with you when we get there. And our objective has always been to replace the ounces that we're mining. But at the same time, we have guided that Nevada is on a 3-year rolling average that we look to replace the reserves.And so we build -- because a lot of the ore bodies are deep. We build the inventory, then we -- and that's what we've been doing. We roll forward the resources and then there will be a period where you've got enough of a pipeline to keep on an annual basis, replacing the reserves. So we're getting there as far as North America goes, but you're going to see a big resource or inventory and resource growth going forward.
And the next question comes from Martin Pradier with Veritas Investment Research.
My question is on Pueblo Viejo. I saw the recovery rate decline from 89% in Q2 to 70% in Q3. I'm wondering what I should expect for Q4? And if this is all related with the sales that you were talking? And the production in Pueblo Viejo was 79,000 ounces, if it would be materially higher in Q4? Or we have to wait until Q1 for that?
So, the recovery is purely a result of the ramp-up. And that's -- as you feed these new processes or flow sheets, we've got to get everything balanced. And we did that, and we've been using a lower-quality stockpile ore on the commissioning side. As you can imagine, our intention is not to try and put as much gold as we can onto the tailings dam. We've got to try and make it land in the [ gold drum ]. So we've used a lower quality, less sulfur rich and lower grade ore to commission the mine and that impacts on recovery.Slowly, we will ramp that up and we're busy with that right now, the ramp-up, it was delayed because of those flotation [ sale ] challenges. And as we do that and we settle the process down, so we will shift back to better ore and we'll return back to the design recovery rate. Notwithstanding that, we expect to have an improved quarter 4 relative to quarter 3 in production-wise. And we should start seeing the recoveries improve. And then quarter 3 will be the same. We expect to be fully back at full operations at the -- during quarter 1 next year, and towards the back end of quarter 1 next year. But notwithstanding that, as I pointed out, the design profile for Pueblo Viejo is above 800,000 ounces. And certainly, from what we see today, we will get to above 800,000 ounces in 2024. So a softer start but a strong finish for the year.
The next question comes from Tanya Jakusconek with Scotiabank.
Great, and good afternoon, everyone. Maybe just on Pueblo Viejo. I'm just looking at your Investor Day presentation of November 2022 when you gave the production profile for Pueblo Viejo and 2024 mark was supposed to be a 1 million ounce year for this asset. So I'm just trying to understand from you as we've had these delays and pushouts and so forth, should I be thinking of moving that 1 million ounce production profile down to -- am I looking in the 900,000 ounce range and taking that differential and pushing it into 2025 where we had to get back down to about 900,000 ounces? So, I'm just trying to understand overall what 2024 looks like relative to what you provided for us in the Investor Day.
So Tanya, you must have a very sharp ruler.
I do.
Definitely -- so that's correct. The situation here is at this stage, what we can say with certainty is we'll break the 800,000 ounces. The ounces we don't make in next year will roll forward into the other years. So that's correct. But what we wanted to point out that despite the slower ramp up, our job is to get this mine complete and running. We'll still beat the design, the long-term design production. And could it be significantly above 800,000 ounces? Yes. Would it be 1 million? No. So it's somewhere between the 2. That's the way -- and we'll tidy that up, Tanya, with you when we speak to you in early February when we give the full guidance at that time. Maybe just felt that this is one that you need to be aware of.
Yes. I just wanted to make sure that when you provide guidance for next year in February, I don't have this 1 million ounce production profile that...
Yes. That's why we've given you that guidance.
Yes. Got it. I appreciate that. And should I be thinking because of the revision to the production profile for 2023 on lower production and higher costs and then sort of this push out of Pueblo Viejo. Should I be thinking that the capital returns should just mainly focus on dividends for the remaining part of this year and into next year versus share buybacks, even though your stock is relatively cheap? Should I be thinking in that way?
I don't think you should be thinking anything like that. Right now, we've got a dividend policy, and that is that as soon as we get cash -- net cash in the balance sheet, at the end of the quarter, we'll pay an extra dividend and it's very clear on our guidance. And Tanya, we've been very loyal to that strategy, unlike any of our peers.At the same time, we can change that because if we buy back stock, then it will push the net cash position below 0, and we won't pay the dividend. So, we can do both. We can do one or the other. We can do both. It's exactly, but we need to get some -- we need to keep a strong balance sheet, because right now, as I pointed out, we are independent of the market. And so, and I've been there before in these stages and it's not in our interest to stress our balance sheet when as you heard from Graham, we've got some significant capital ahead of us, and that capital delivers real returns. And so, that's our focus.As we have always been in our whole career, we worry about creating value from mining world-class ore bodies are not trying to buy our stock by paying more and more dividends on the back of increasing debt.
Okay. The priority of dividend over share buyback is what I'm taken from this?
No, it's not. It's either-or.
No? Either-or.
Yes.
And then my final question, if I could. I just wanted to come back to the health and safety. I'm just trying to understand, Mark, what's going on with health and safety with these fatalities. We talked a little bit about it on another conference call last year. We had quite a number of fatalities and then another 2. Can you just review with us is it that procedures aren't being followed, your procedures need to be updated? Like what exactly is occurring? I'm just trying to wrap my head around all of what I'm seeing.
So the one fatality still hasn't really been classified, the one in the United States. So that still needs a bit of work before we can talk in too much detail. But the fundamental aspect of this is operational excellence, Tanya. And when you get -- and it's the requirement to get people to concentrate and to be properly qualified to do the job and be aware of what they need to do before they embark on any work. And we've -- when you go through these stages, you've got to spend a lot of more time in making sure that we are training our people correctly and that they are able to deal with the challenges of work underground and work in a heavy industrial environment or heavy industry environment.And like all accidents, there's some neglect in it, either not really doing a proper risk analysis before starting the work, or that you overlook procedures and standards. And the question -- and it's easy for us to blame that, but it's -- there's more to it than this when you manage health and safety. And just like you see our sustained -- our environmental strategy is starting to work. It takes time in a big organization to really make sure that every person who comes in the gate and every person who works in -- and walks into a specific environment within that heavy industry industry is qualified to be there and is capable of working safely, and that's our big focus right now.
Okay. So you've tightened your procedures I'm assuming in terms of once you have...
I've tightened our procedures. We've introduced training schools, proper training mines in Nevada because a lot of -- in America, you don't have this philosophy of a technical qualification, so we're doing it ourselves. We've partnered with the technical training institutions both in Northern and Southern Nevada. And in Africa, we've revisited that induction and making sure that our technicians...
All that, when I see you in person. I'll leave it here, and let someone else ask questions.
The next question comes from Mike Parkin with National Bank.
Just a little bit of looking for some additional color on 2024 for PV. With respect to downturns, will there be kind of major downturns to get the conveyor fixed and up and running, get the new gearboxes and drive shafts replace at the more robust units on the leach tanks. And would that all kind of happen in Q1? Or I would imagine it's likely a bit of a back half weighted year for the asset. Just any kind of additional color you could provide would be fantastic?
So we can manage the downtimes in our current profile and all the leach tanks and the retrofits or the fitting of the new assemblages will happen before the end of the year. And then by that stage, we should be properly ramped up as far as process flow sheet, that sort of thing. And then we've got a lower throughput in the first quarter because we've engineered an interim solution, which gets us 70% to 75% of the way to our full design throughput. And that's independent of the current conveyor infrastructure. So to fix that and erect it, the new extension will not be impacted by our -- and certainly won't impact the operation. And then we'll switch over to the newly installed conveyor once it's all done, and dismantle the temporary conveyor system that we've put in its place.So that's why we're confident that we'll crack the 800,000 ounces next year. And if we get it done earlier, and we can -- we get the ramp up more efficient earlier, it all helps to the point that Tanya was talking about. So we would get more, not less above the 800,000 ounce forecast.
A follow-up on that is just the work on the needed new tailings dam. Is that continuing to track well to plan from the May site tour? Or is there any delays in terms of getting final sign-off and permits to get that work underway? Or it's the relocation of some of the villages that I believe had to be moved out of the way. Is that all tracking to plan?
Yes, it's all tracking to plan, and it's fully permitted. So the only -- the work we've got to finish for the actual design is we've got a couple more holes to finish on the main wall just to make sure that the -- because this is -- the Llagal dam, El Llagal dam, which we're using now is one of the most engineered tailings facilities in the world, and it survived seismic events. And so, this is a very highly engineered dam, foundations are critical in the way we engineer it. So we're busy with that work. And then -- but the dam itself is permitted, and we're far down the road on our consultation program with the community. And as I pointed out in my presentation, we'll start moving people.And these are people, some of them are effectively squatters on state land or on other people's own land, but they have a right under the Dominican Republic law to that land because they've been living there for so long. And what we're doing is building new village infrastructure, so proper communal village living and with the infrastructure and all the services as well. So, it's been relatively easy to find the solutions and get the commitment to relocate, and we're busy with that. And as you know, we've done some of the biggest relocations in the world in Randgold and they've been all been successful.
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Anita Soni with CIBC World Markets.
Mark and team, first question is with regards to costs. I can see they came down this quarter and are trending more towards the guide that you put out at the beginning of the year. Can you talk about some of the areas where you've seen cost relief? And any implications that has to the CapEx number going into next year?
So Anita, nice to hear from you. I mean, we are forecasting another decline in costs along with a further increase in production in 20 -- I mean, in quarter four. The world is very dynamic, as you know. And oil and gas are one of the key drivers of our costs in many of our operations. So I think that's a good trend. I would prefer if you let us guide you on the costs for next year when we give you the full guidance. But that's really the trend at the moment. And you're right. We are getting back towards the guided costs, we're not quite -- we're not going to make it quite make it there because one of the drivers of the cost to, as Graham has said before, is the higher gold price on the royalties. So $100 is $5 on the cost, Graham. So $100 is $5 above our -- and remember, we planned at $650. $1,650, sorry. Yes.
The second question -- so my second question is with respect to the softer quarter -- sorry, softer years that you're going to see at Carlin and Cortez this year. So would it be safe to assume that next year, I think you were guiding to Nevada Gold Mines being a little bit weaker in 2024 originally, but with these kinds of delays in the production in 2023, could you see some of that pushed out into 2024, and maybe it's not as soft as you had previously guided?
No. I think our guidance for 2024 that we last spoke about. And again, we were saying, one of the things just like I did in Argentina, we need to give this team a bit of a breather. It's really right at the edge all the time and it's just not getting on top of things. And so, that's the discussion you and Tanya and I and a couple of other analysts had when we were down together in PV. And we're mindful of that and we gave that indication of where things are going to land. And I think right now, that's where I'd like it to stay until -- but we'll tidy it up next year when we talk to you in February.
Okay. That's it from me and my questions.
The next question comes from Jackie Przybylowski with BMO Capital Markets.
Appreciate your time. My first question, I'm sure you've been asked this a lot, but maybe it would be helpful to ask you on the call. You've said before that you'd be looking at copper assets. I know, you've addressed this sort of indirectly today. But if you could just maybe be a bit more direct. When you were talking about buying Freeport, you said you would do it if you saw that a distressed discount, and that moment has obviously passed. You've also been linked in the media to potentially looking at buying First Quantum in the past.I mean, I think everybody would agree that it looks like the stock price is a bit of a distressed discount at the moment. Does that change your view on acquiring First Quantum at this point?
So Anita (sic) [ Jackie Przybylowski ], right now, things are very fluid, as you can imagine, it must be a tough time for First Quantum. The press is not my investment banker. And so it would be -- I think it will just be ill advised for me to comment on that question. I think First Quantum needs to focus on its challenges and none of us like to see that sort of event in our industry.
Absolutely. And it's Jackie, by the way.
Sorry.
If I could ask on, that's okay. It was a tough question, so I understand the mistake. Like, on Reko Diq, there's been a lot of talk again in the media about potential partners at Reko Diq. And I think I actually asked you guys this last quarter. But since then, there's been more talk about whether it's the Saudis or Egyptian individuals. Can you just reiterate like how you expect the project to look from your side? Are you looking to retain your 50% stake in Reko Diq? Or would you entertain partners coming in terms of sharing the Barrick equity?
So Jackie,what I can tell you is -- again, I was asked this question by a report of [ Red field ], never spoken to him about it, and he's got about little or no chance, probably no chance of ever getting equity and Reko Diq, and I think he knows that.
That's very clear.
And that's no reflection on-- given, he is a great friend of mine, but we're not selling equity. It's not an equity sales. The conversation around Saudi and Pakistan and their equity as you know, Saudi was a big player in supporting the IMF rescue of Pakistan. It's a long-term friend, partner and supporter of Pakistan. And those conversations are being held in some form, but -- and we are there to support. And we are, as you know, strong partners of Saudi Arabia in Saudi Arabia, and we are very committed partners to Pakistan in Pakistan. And we're there to help wherever we can, but we're definitely not meddling in any conversation. And the one thing that is clear is our 50% is not for sale.
That's very helpful color.
I think that will probably help. If you ask me again next quarter, I'll give you the same answer, I promise.
I'll ask you to respond to the next media rumors. And I appreciate it. I appreciate it.
And the next question comes from John Tumazos with John Tumazos Very Independent Research.
Mark, congratulations on everything. I hope I don't offend you, but I did a little spreadsheet comparing 56 companies and some of them were gold companies.
Yes.
And those 56 companies in the last 3 years bought back $73 billion worth of their stock. Every steel, every forest products and every fertilizer company, I looked at, bought back stock. The gold companies are different Mark, so I don't compare you to gold companies. There are actually 5 companies that bought back over $1 billion so far this year. And the biggest one was [ Vale ] that spent $14.5 billion on buybacks in the last 3 years so far. Last year, Barrick bought back stock. This year, you're not, how buybacks compared to extending Lumwana extending Pueblo Viejo, Reko Diq. Just walk us through how you make those choices.
So John, that's a good question, and thank you for the compliment. Well, I think it was a complement.
Certainly, I compare you to real companies and not gold companies.
Thank you. So again, as I pointed out earlier, one of the things, if you go back through my career, and most of my career has been with Graham and we have a very clear outlook on how we manage the balance sheet is that you need to have a capital allocation strategy and a policy, and we've got one. We work to one went right out the blocks in 2019. And then we've built one and shared it with you 18 months ago. And today, it stands at we don't -- we pay a base dividend of $0.10 a quarter anytime because our long-term business strategy delivers that base dividend no matter what the gold price is or what the most foreseeable gold price or minimum gold prices, and then once we get a net positive cash position, we add to that $0.10.Now the way we can manage that is -- and we want that because we're in a growth phase. And I've proven before, and I am determined to prove it again, if you keep investing into profitable assets, ultimately, you make more money than you need to reinvest in your future. And that's what happened in Randgold after 10 years, and we had 13 years of growing dividends no matter what the gold price was. And so, the way we can manage that buyback relative to dividend is when we see the trajectory going above net cash, we have a choice, buy back the stock or let it go past that point. And then at the end of the quarter, if we've got net cash, we -- it triggers our dividend policy. So that as management, we can manage that, and we never put the balance sheet at risk.And I've always said, the one thing you need to know in mining is that when the market goes against you, you have no friends. And when you ask for money at that time, you get slaughtered. All the stock-buying will never help you. So I've always work to be independent of the market and shareholders like that. They might not like that in hot times. We've just been through a very hot time. But look, how suddenly the base metal companies have started having to cut back on expenditure, reduce staff, defer capital, lots of things because everyone thought that commodity prices continue to go up and up and never come down, and that's not the case.So for us, that's the way we manage share buybacks. And at the time, as you know, we had a lot of cash flow. We were able to choose. We had to balance our returns to our shareholders. We've done that, but we also saw a significant weakness in our stock price. And more importantly, a relative weakness relative to the rest of the gold industry, which itself is weak. And so, we felt that taking some of that extra cash coming off our P&L and buying shares is the right thing to do.I've always felt as a mining industry and Barrick is in a particular place, it's got a lot of outstanding shares. It's hard to make a dent on them, but we will continue to do that. When we have an opportunity and we got free cash, we'll buy the stock back. If it goes too low, we'll buy it back as well. So -- but as -- we passed -- I believe we passed that real tough part in rebuilding Barrick. We've set a solid foundation. We've built a strong team. We know where we're going. We're not going to regret any of the decisions we've made because they've been well made. And we can afford our growth and not many mining companies that can show 30% organic growth ahead of them. And I think we're well positioned to benefit from the long-term bullish output on copper. And right now, I can't see much downside risk on gold, just because of the chaotic global environment we find ourselves in whether it's the global economy or just the geopolitical risk and everything else that goes with it.
So basically, the growth for Reko Diq is more valuable than buying back shares in your opinion?
Yes. In the short term, because if you get caught in the market without money for a big project like Reko Diq, then you hurt the overall long-term reserves. And so that -- it's the choice of capital allocation, and we are not going to issue new stock. We are not going to put our shareholders at risk at all in the next 5 years, we can see it, it's banked. And ultimately, our share price will go up naturally because we're going to show people, we've got the discipline. People are still thinking we're going to do some crazy M&A transaction. That's not the case.We've demonstrated that, should the opportunity arise to create value through acquisitions, we'll take it even if we have to be aggressive. But right now, we're in good shape, and we don't have any regrets if you look back 5 years.
Mark, I know this wasn't on your watch, but from '94 to '98, the stock was much higher than today. And even through the dog years when the Swiss were selling out their gold reserves '98-'99 -- and I know all the gold stocks are cheap today. The market gives no credit for all your successes in Tanzania, PNG, Pakistan, et cetera. So I guess we're just going to be patient and wait for the earnings to come in and for the market to recognize all the good things you're doing?
Yes. I think, John, I don't have to nick to you on this. It takes one bad decision to damage a reputation. It takes years to rebuild it. And we literally had to rebuild the Barrick portfolio. I mean, piece by piece, as I pointed out earlier in the presentation. So -- and the '90s you're talking about, remember, I've modeled Randgold on the '90s Barrick, and that was a different company to what transpired in 2010, '11, '12 and '13, where effectively the company wrote down $20 billion of investments, and they were all U.S. dollar investments.On top of that, there was the equity issues. So there was a -- it was in a very stressed situation at the time of our merger.
Congratulations and all the good work you've done, Mark.
Coming from you, John. I'll take that as a real complement. Thank you.
There are currently no more questions from the conference call.
Well, thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen, both on the call and here in London. It's great to be back in London. Nice to make sure to reinforce the fact that the weather hasn't changed one bit. And I look forward to continuing to catch up with you virtually until we meet again in person in a year's time. Thank you very much.