Jamieson Wellness Inc
TSX:JWEL
Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2023 Analysis
Jamieson Wellness Inc
In a recent earnings call, the company presented an optimistic financial outlook, revising its consolidated revenue guidance to between CAD680 million and CAD690 million, marking an increase from the previous expectation of 22-26% to 24-26%. The guidance for adjusted diluted earnings per share remains unchanged at CAD1.56 to CAD1.63.
Delving into various business segments, Jamieson Canada is anticipated to achieve a revenue growth of 3-4%, reflecting an updated and more narrowed forecast. Youtheory's expected revenue growth of 15-19% represents a pro forma basis adjustment, increased from CAD145 million to CAD150-155 million. Jamieson China continues to impress with an approximate 75% revenue growth, fueled by strategic initiatives and consumer demand.
E-commerce sales exhibit staggering growth, with sequential quarterly improvements of 30%, 50%, and a phenomenal 100% in the third quarter, underlying the effectiveness of the company's online initiatives.
Despite observing a 4.6% decline in shipments, this was counteracted by increased consumption, which grew by 8% in dollar terms and 7% in units during the same period, signifying resilience in market demand.
The company continues to navigate through varying cost landscapes, locking in ingredient prices to help stabilize 2024's financial projections. Management remains committed to taking necessary pricing actions to preserve margins if required.
The company alluded to synergies from the integration of the Youtheory business and indicated ongoing investments in expanding market presence and infrastructure, particularly within the food, drug, mass, and international markets. One strategical partner relationship is winding down to reallocate resources towards the company's branded channels.
Looking forward, top line growth of 11-14.5% is expected, which will be partly driven by new distribution gains across Canada. Investment in Youtheory is planned to spur international growth with a focused approach on test launches in China for 2024. Consumption growth in China remains robust across multiple channels with specific emphasis on e-commerce and cross-border initiatives, painting a promising picture for the brand's future in the region.
The company's strategy for the upcoming year includes aligning brand growth with SG&A growth to ensure any gross profit expansion positively impacts the bottom line, reflecting a precise and mindful approach to expenditure growth in line with overall company growth.
Consumer trends indicate a shift towards channels offering value, noting a rise in discount grocers, online shopping, and club stores' patronage. The company is adapting its distribution strategy to these behavioral patterns to maintain its market strength across key regions.
The company plans to purchase up to about 1 million shares in the fourth quarter, with further buybacks being contingent on available operating cash flow and the prioritization of organic growth needs.
A significant reduction in working capital is expected in the fourth quarter, including a targeted drawdown of inventory, aligning operational capabilities with growth ventures.
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Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Jamieson Wellness conference call to discuss the financial results for the third quarter of 2023. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that the reproduction of this call, in whole or in part, is not permitted without written authorization from the company. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. On the call today from management are Mike Pilato, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Chris Snowden, Chief Financial Officer and Corporate Secretary. Before I turn the call over to Mr. Pilato, please note that a press release covering the company's third quarter financial results was issued this afternoon, and a copy of this press release can be found in the Investor Relations section of the company's website. Please note that the prepared remarks which will follow contain forward-looking statements, and management may make additional forward-looking statements in response to your questions. These statements do not guarantee future performance and, therefore, undue reliance should not be placed upon them. We refer you to all risk factors contained in Jamieson's press release issued this afternoon and in filings with the Canadian Securities Administrators for a more detailed discussion of these factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projections and any forward-looking statements. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly correct or update the forward-looking statements made during the presentation to reflect future events or circumstances except as it may be required under applicable securities laws. Finally, we would like to remind listeners that the company may refer to certain non-IFRS financial measures during this teleconference. A reconciliation of these non-IFRS financial measures was included with the company's press release issued earlier today. Also, please note that, unless otherwise stated, all figures discussed today are in Canadian dollars and are occasionally rounded to the nearest million. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Pilato to get started. Please go ahead, sir.
Perfect. Thank you, [Galeen], and good afternoon, everyone. I'll begin with some high-level comments about the quarter and provide an overview of our key strategic initiatives. Chris will follow with a more detailed view of the financials and provide updates on guidance. We will then open it up for questions. We are very pleased with our third quarter results. Strong performances in the U.S. and China helped to drive top line growth beyond our expectations. Quarter 3 saw our operations in the world's 2 largest markets of the U.S. and China grow nearly 90% and 70%, respectively. At home in Canada, we saw continued strong POS growth of high single digits in both units and dollars, further building on our leadership position of the century-old and stable, highly profitable business that has helped fuel our global expansion. Total revenue was up over 9% to nearly CAD152 million, as 15% of that growth came from our Jamieson Brands segment and was partially offset by expected lower strategic partners revenue. In Canada, branded revenue declined 4.6%, which was in line with guidance around the timing of cold and flu replenishments back into the historically normal Q4 timing this year versus Q3 in 2022. Consumer consumption trends remained very healthy, reflecting continued strong demand for Jamieson products as consumers continue to prioritize their health and wellness proactively. Jamieson International revenues increased nearly 12% year-over-year, driven by new product launches and promotions in some key markets. Youtheory, our U.S. business unit, delivered an exceptional quarter, with revenue growth of over 88%, driven by innovation led by our new turmeric SKU, strength in e-commerce, as well as increased distribution points and some timing-related factors. We are very pleased with the momentum we are seeing in this important and strategic growth segment. In China, revenues grew 67% on a local currency basis. Growth in this market reflects expanding club distribution, the ongoing strength of consumer demand across retail and cross-border e-commerce, along with our transition to an owned distribution model. The strategic investments we have made in our China business this year will prove to be transformational over time, and to date are yielding strong financial results and better positioning in market for further expansion and profitable growth. Adjusted EBITDA increased 8% to nearly CAD32 million as volume growth and higher gross profit were partially offset by the timing of planned investments around brand-building initiatives in the U.S. and China to help set us up for long-term profitable growth. Our latest results provide further confirmation that the strategic plans we've executed over the past 18 months to accelerate and diversify our growth globally for the long-term are working. For example, the majority of the primary functional areas of Youtheory business have integrated with Jamieson, and we are making steady progress, actioning on synergies to drive sales and margin improvements. Leveraging the value of Youtheory's innovation and expanding distribution to drive scale continues to be one of the most accretive opportunities for us to capture. We are also very pleased to report on the early progress we've made in China under our new owned and controlled operating model. I had the privilege of visiting the team in Shanghai a couple of weeks ago. To be together collaborating as one Jamieson team was a moment of pride for me personally but, more importantly, a significant milestone in our growth story and a testament to the determination of the team who has brought Jamieson to consumers in the second largest vitamin and mineral supplement market in the world. Underlying trends in VMS consumer demand remain strong, and we have a solid foundation with significant capacity to support future growth. And we're just getting started. Over the near-term, we will continue to make investments in talent, infrastructure and marketing to seize this great growth opportunity we have in China. As we look to close out the year, we've decided to make some adjustments to our guidance by updating the low-end range for Jamieson Brands and adjusting strategic partners revenue. This is due to continuous positive consumer consumption trends for our brands and changes in strategic partners. Chris will provide more context shortly on these adjustments. In summary, after 25 consecutive quarters of growth, we are well-positioned strategically, operationally and financially to continue building on this great trend. We continue to execute against our expansion in acquisition integration plans and are confident in our ability to create significant value. Along with the same value creation opportunities today, we also announced that we are initiating a normal course issuer bid, which allows us to repurchase and cancel up to CAD4.1 million, or 10% of our shares outstanding over the next 12 months. We believe that repurchasing our own shares is an attractive investment opportunity and a sensible way to return capital to our shareholders. With that, I'm going to turn the call over to Chris to discuss our third quarter results in more detail and our updated guidance. Chris, over to you.
Thank you, Mike, and good afternoon, everyone. In the third quarter, revenue increased 9.1% to CAD151.5 million, driven by growth in Jamieson Brands, partially offset by expected decline in strategic partners. Jamieson Brands' revenue increased by 15% to CAD129.1 million, driven by growth in the U.S. and China. Domestic revenue declined by 4.6% as consumer consumption continued to outpace shipments while overlapping a high promotional and elevated cold and flu shipments in the prior year's third quarter. Our Youtheory segment contributed CAD33 million of branded revenue growth, or 71% pro forma growth, led by innovation-driven consumer demand, continued strength in e-commerce and distribution gains. Timing was also a factor, with some orders shipped earlier than anticipated as a result of our distribution gains. In China, our transition to an owned distribution model helped drive revenue growth of approximately 67% on a constant-currency basis. On a pro forma basis, China revenue increased 24.8%, reflecting strong consumer demand in cross-border e-commerce and new domestic club distribution. Our International business unit revenue grew CAD8.1 million, up 11.8%, reflecting product launches and promotions. Our strategic partner revenue decreased by 16.2% to CAD22.4 million, reflecting the timing of orders, which included a discontinued contractual agreement with a partner for strategic purposes. Gross profit margin decreased by 110 basis points on a reported basis and increased by 120 basis points on a normalized basis, driven by a proportionate higher mix of Jamieson Brands revenue. Reported cost of goods sold includes a CAD3.5 million adjustment to the fair value of inventory acquired from our Chinese distributor. Within Jamieson Brands, gross profit margin declined by 340 basis points to 36.9%, or by 70 basis points on a normalized basis to 39.6%, reflecting the lower gross margin profile of our Youtheory business along with specific category mix in the quarter. Gross profit margin in our Strategic Partners segment increased by 320 basis points to 15.5%, reflecting customer mix. Excluding the impact of specified costs, SG&A increased by CAD4.3 million, or 18.3%, reflecting the acquisition of Youtheory in the prior year and investments to establish our on-the-ground presence in China, including marketing and promotional costs to drive brand-building, trial and awareness, specified costs of CAD2.8 million comprised of IT system implementation costs and costs associated with our Chinese expansion. Third quarter operating income increased by 16.2% to CAD19 million as a result of higher revenues and gross profit, while investments in expanded marketing and SG&A initiatives were offset by lower acquisition and divestiture-related costs. On a normalized basis, third quarter operating income increased by 7.4%. The EBITDA increased by 17.3% to CAD25.5 million, reflecting higher revenue and gross profit. Adjusted EBITDA expanded by 8% to CAD31.9 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased by 20 basis points to 21% as we prioritized certain SG&A and marketing investments in the U.S. and in China. Excluding specified costs and foreign exchange, adjusted net earnings increased by 5.4% to CAD15 million, and adjusted earnings per diluted common share was CAD0.35. Net earnings decreased by 28.6% to CAD7.8 million. Earnings per diluted common share were CAD0.18, reflecting higher interest costs and the timing of cash flow associated with our DCP partnership investments. A reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net earnings is provided in today's press release announcing the third quarter results. Turning to the balance sheet and cash flow. We used CAD14 million in cash from operations in the third quarter compared to CAD20.6 million in the prior year. Cash from operations before working capital considerations was CAD17.7 million, or CAD1.3 million higher due to increased earnings in the quarter, excluding the impact of a noncash accretion of preferred shares year-over-year. Cash invested in working capital decreased by CAD5.3 million in the quarter driven by timing of accounts receivable collections, partially offset by changes in payables in the prior year. In the third quarter, we invested CAD1.7 million in capital and distributed approximately CAD8 million in dividends. We ended the quarter with over CAD222 million in readily available cash and liquidity. Based on our consistent growth and an ability to generate cash, we have announced a CAD0.19 dividend per common share, an increase of 12% versus the prior year or approximately CAD8 million in aggregate. The dividend will be paid on December 15, 2023, to common shareholders of record at the close of business on December 1, 2023. In conjunction with our earnings release today, we announced that we've received approval from the TSX to commence a normal course issuer bid. This gives us the opportunity to repurchase for cancellation up to 10% of our public float common shares over the next 12 months. In the fourth quarter, we intend to use cash generated from operations to support the repurchase of up to 1 million Jamieson Wellness shares. On an ongoing basis, after prioritizing organic growth opportunities, we will consider repurchasing shares as a component of our capital allocation process while maintaining responsible debt levels. This is an attractive use of capital while current trading multiples of our common shares remains substantially below our long-term trading range. Now turning to guidance. As a result of strong consumer consumption trends on the Jamieson Brands and Strategic Partners segments, we are lifting the lower end of our previously announced revenue range, and we are maintaining our adjusted EBITDA margin and EBITDA expectations. Changes in guidance include we now expect fiscal 2023 revenue on a consolidated basis to range between CAD680 million and CAD690 million, an increase of 24% to 26%, up from the previous range of 22% to 26%. We maintain our guidance on adjusted diluted earnings per share from between CAD1.56 to CAD1.63, up 5% compared to the prior year. Our guidance continues to reflect investments in marketing, resources and infrastructure to support strategic growth opportunities in the United States and in China. Changes to the Jamieson brand guidance include the following: revenue is expected to increase from 24% to between 26% and 28%, driven by the following growth factors. Jamieson Canada revenue is expected to grow 3% to 4%, narrowed from 2% to 4%, Youtheory revenue between CAD150 million to CAD155 million, or approximately 15% to 19% growth on a pro forma basis, increased from our previous range of CAD145 million and CAD155 million, driven by product innovation, expanded e-commerce initiatives and distribution gains. Jamieson China revenue growth of approximately 75%, or at the high end of our previous guided range of 65% to 75%, reflecting consumer demand across cross-border e-commerce and distribution gains in domestic retail channels as well as a transition to our own distribution model. This translates to growth of 30% on a pro forma basis. Jamieson International revenue growth of between 5% and 10% from our previous range of flat to 10%, reflecting the shipment of newly registered products despite a post COVID-19 government slowdown of registrations impacting timing of entry into new markets. Revenue in the Strategic Partners segment is expected to increase by approximately 15%, at the low end of our previous guidance, reflecting pricing upside offset by the wind-down of the current third-party branded contract. Fourth quarter revenues are expected to increase by approximately 5% in our strategic partner business compared with the fourth quarter of 2022. A complete discussion of our outlook for the third quarter and our full-year fiscal 2023, as well as factors impacting our expected performance, are included in the outlook section of our MD&A filed this afternoon. In closing, I would like to thank the entire Jamieson Wellness team for their continued commitment and hard work as we continue to deliver high-quality products and brands that consumers trust while executing on our strategic plan and returning value to all of our stakeholders. With that, now let me turn the call back to our operator, Galeen, for Q&A.
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Derek Lessard with TD Cowen.
Maybe just want to touch on Canada first. Last quarter, you guys did talk about some inventory destocking at retailers. Just curious what you're seeing now at this point, and if you've seen them start to replenish their stocks.
So we reported shipments about minus 4.6% was the sale decline in Canada, as expected. I think we guided down around minus 5%. We did see very strong consumption in the marketplace as we expected, so dollar growth of about plus 8% unit growth of about plus 7%. We saw consumption continue to pick up even after Q2, which is a good sign.So we did see some more inventory burn, as we expected and we guided for. We're also comping a high quarter last year where we grew 12% in Q3 as cold and flu season moved into that quarter as opposed to where it usually sits in Q4. So right now, we continue to work through with every one of our retailers. We're in conversations with all of them in terms of inventory levels, ensuring they have the right levels and sustainable levels to keep the consumption levels high. We're now in the middle of cold and flu season. We typically see inventory build through Q4 as they bulk up for cold and flu season. We expect to see that again. And then we'll, as usual, back to historical timing. We'll burn through that inventory in Q1. We'll take a look coming out of cold and flu season and see where we are at that point, and hopefully can give some updates in terms of inventory levels and where we see this going. We feel pretty good right now. We feel like we're in a pretty good spot, but we continue to monitor it and talk to all the retailers on a daily, weekly, monthly basis.
And just maybe switching gears to Youtheory. So 1.5 years removed from the acquisition. Just maybe could you talk about where you are in terms of retail channel penetration and/or getting into retail planograms at this point?
Yes. I think we have seen some success across all the measures of strategic growth that we said we would focus on in this business, right? We talked about growing distribution through innovation and expanded store counts in places where they had distribution when we made the acquisition. We're seeing some good traction there. We are seeing some new retailers come on board and giving us more distribution. We're seeing some good innovation in the marketplace start to impact our POS there and have consumers really resonate with some of that innovation, most notably our new turmeric SKU, which we've talked a lot about over the last year.And we've expanded e-commerce. I think we talked about Q1, we grew e-commerce 30%, Q2, 50%. In Q3, we just grew at 100%. So we're really starting to see all the 4 vectors of growth in the domestic market really work to where we focus and the strategic pillars we've talked about, as well as we've gotten some great interest internationally on the Youtheory brand and starting to pick up some momentum in some of the countries outside of the United States that, hopefully, we can talk about a little more into 2024 and 2025 as we get those registrations through and we get those to the various markets that are interested.
The next question is from Stephen MacLeod with BMO Capital Markets.
Just wanted to follow up on a couple of things here. Just in terms of the U.S. and the Youtheory, I was just wondering if you could just give a little bit of color around the contributors of those factors that you cited in your prepared comments to growth. I think it was innovation, e-comm and increased distribution points as well as some timing. And then I just noticed that in the guidance, the Youtheory growth slows a little bit. So I'm just wondering if that's attributable to the timing issue that you referred to or if there's something else happening.
So a couple of things I would point to, [Justin] ? (sic ? Stephen). I did talk about all those 4 vectors of growth a second ago in terms of distribution gains, innovation that we put into the market, e-commerce growth and all the various strategic pillars that we're focused on.When we talk about timing, it's really 2 things. One, if you go back to 2022, we closed the deal on July 19. So you get about 2 extra weeks of sales in this quarter. It's minor, but that would play a timing factor. The second thing is we did see some incremental or unexpected shipments at the end of Q3 that we expected in Q4 around some of this incremental distribution and some of the innovation that we've been seeing success with. So some of it is a timing shift from early Q4 into late Q3, and that's why we have increased the low end of our guidance in the U.S., but we've held the high end of the guidance, and we're going to continue to see growth through Q4 and keep us on our trajectory for the year at this point.
And then, I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about the increased distribution points, maybe more specifically in the U.S. and new retailers, if you could just give some color around what specific gains you've made in that market.
Yes. I mean, we don't typically talk retailer by retailer. What I can tell you is we've seen some gains in the club channel, both with current retailers and retailers we've expanded some distribution on. We've expanded in the mass channel with a couple of key retailers. We've seen some expansion in the health food channel. We've seen some good pickup there with some new retailers and some expanded distribution to more stores and more SKUs by store.So it's really across the board. We really are continuing to work with multiple potential partners across the U.S. and continue to build distribution for the foreseeable future, right? We talked about this a few times. Distribution build in the U.S. is not a sprint. It's a marathon. So we're going to work with these retailers year after year and continue to build that over time and ensure that the distribution we pick up is sustainable, that we're getting the turns to keep it on shelf and that we're supporting those distribution points. So we'll continue to focus on that, and you should continue to see growth from us in that strategic pillar.
And then maybe just one for Chris, if I could, just on the NCIB. Any way to quantify how active you would expect to be on the NCIB?
In my prepared remarks, I talked about purchasing up to about 1 million shares in the fourth quarter before the exit of the year. And then, following that, it's really just a focus on value and available operating cash flow ahead of organic growth needs. So that will be to be determined on the rest of the year.
The next question is from Ty Collin with Eight Capital.
I appreciate all the color on the call about China specifically. On that note, I'm wondering if you could maybe just update us on the partnership with DCP and what sort of benefits you've been harvesting from that relationship so far.
Yes. I was just with them in China actually 2 weeks ago. We had some great meetings and the partnership is alive and well and very strong. And I think you've seen some very strong results from us in Q2 and now in Q3, as we've taken over the full value chain in China in a full owned model.We're 6 months in, 6.5 months into this, so there's still a lot of growth to have. We've built an amazing team of very high talented people in China that are really helping to drive this business forward. They really helped us recruit some of that key talent into the organization. They made some key contacts for us into the marketplace in terms of various channels and various points of expansion. They helped us get through the transition. We talked about that last call. We got through the transition of all of the e-commerce platforms in record time. Typically takes companies up to 3 months to make those transitions. We did it in 4 weeks. We were quite proud of that. They came with a lot of help and support from DCP. And they've really put some resources on the ground working with our team to really help unlock this immense e-commerce opportunity and KOL program opportunity in China, and you're starting to see some of that growth really come to life here in the results. The other thing I think that's probably on the softer side of things is the benefits. It's just really being on the ground there in China and being able to really communicate back to us here in Canada with the team that we built there all together. It's kind of like all 3 parties at the table ensuring that we're making the right investments for the right growth that really set us up for long-term success. And I think that strategic thinking and help and performance that they've had in the past is really helping us today.
And then just for my follow-up, I think this is the time of the year when you guys are usually locking in ingredients prices with your suppliers. So I'm just wondering if you could comment on how costs are looking for 2024 and whether you think you'll need to take a little more price or maybe give some margin back to the consumer next year?
That's an ongoing process through our fourth quarter. We have seen some costs rise. We've seen other costs come back to normal. So that's a to-be-determined. But right now, we feel very good about our guidance in terms of our margins exiting 2023.
The largest trade show of the year, Ty, happened last week. It's a supply trade show. Our procurement team was down there with all of our suppliers, or most of our suppliers. But most of the work happens post- that trade show. So the next couple of months will be key, and we'll update in February as we put guidance out for the year. All options are on the table, though, to what Chris said. And as we've talked about before, if we have to take pricing to protect margins in our business, we'll do that, and we have a track record of doing that.
The next question is from Justin Keywood with Stifel Canada.
On the working capital, just wondering when we should expect that to return to a more normalized scenario, if it is in Q4, or will it take some additional time into next year?
You'll see a significant drawdown of working capital in the fourth quarter. I think we talked in earlier quarters about us being around or slightly lower than the investment in working capital on a total year basis in fiscal 2023 as compared to 2022, and that would imply a significant drawdown in inventory over the fourth quarter. And that's typically we would prebuild our heaviest quarter in the second and the third quarter.
And then the growth, obviously pretty strong, and I believe most of it is volume. I'm just wondering if you're seeing any indication of demand weakening just around the inflationary environment? Or does the trends remain pretty constructive?
Yes. The trends remain pretty constructive to date. If we look at our results, I mean, we are outpacing market growth in our top 3 focus markets of Canada, China and the United States. And you see our guidance for the year. We continue to see growth coming in those businesses, and a lot of that's backed up by point-of-sale data and consumption at the consumer level.We also are seeing some good growth in international. We had a good quarter in international as we've worked through some of the issues there. It continues to be a very complex piece of business with many countries, but we are seeing signs of consumption growth in some of the key markets and is really holding and continuing to be strong.
And then just a question of clarification. On the NCIB, is this being initiated for the first time?
That's correct.
The next question is from Tania Armstrong-Whitworth with Canaccord Genuity.
So firstly, I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks about Youtheory having made headways in the integration, and you're currently harvesting synergies. Can you maybe talk about what components of that business have been integrated? What remains to be integrated? And give us a dollar value sense of synergies that you've realized and what you expect to realize.
So all of our functional components of the Youtheory business have now been integrated with the functional leaders across the Jamieson organization. We continue to realize synergies both from a procurement, operational and leverage perspective, levering the facility with larger volumes. We're not talking about the specific dollar amount, but a lot of those synergies are in turn now being invested in resources and infrastructure to continue to grow in those 3 pillars that Mike talked about, focusing on expanding our presence in our existing channels and in adjacencies as well as growing in food, drug, mass, growing the food-drug-mass presence in the U.S., and then also looking to grow Youtheory internationally. So that's where those investments have gone, and we look to continuing to grow margin and grow the business in 2024.
And just a follow-up on that. Have you started launching any of the Youtheory brands in China yet?
No. We have not done that yet. And as we've disclosed previously, we've got some test launches that were planned for either very late in 2023 or into 2024. With all the growth and work going on in the Jamieson brand in China right now [observed] a couple of weeks ago, they laid out their test plan for China. We pushed into early 2024 to let them close this year's strong focus on the big promotional windows of Q4 in China around our Jamieson brand, and we'll do a test launch in 2024 and then monitor it from there.
And then my second question is, on the Strategic Partners business, I think you mentioned there is one contract winding down. Why does that typically happen? Is it the partner that you're working with that chooses to wind down that contract? Or is it yourself trying to free up space because you're growing so quickly with your own branded channel?
Yes, it can be either. But the other thing to remember is that some of the strategic partners also demand other resources within the organization. So it can be a joint separation. In this case, we felt that the partner was taking up too many resources from a product development perspective and felt that it was a natural evolution of that business.
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from George Doumet with Scotiabank.
Can you maybe talk a little bit about the building blocks to get to that 11% to 14.5% top line growth? Because Jamie Canada the next quarter, it seems like a high number. So if you can maybe walk us through that. And as we look to next year, how should we think of volume growth of that business in the context of tighter inventory management for some similar customers?
Yes. So if you look at Q4, we have quite a strong guide there. It really is driven by 2 things, George. Going back to timing, right, we talked about how cold and flu, a chunk of cold and flu last year shifted into Q3. We had a plus-12% Q3 in Canada last year in 2022, shifting out of Q3 and back to the regular timing of Q4. And also, we continue to pick up new distribution in Canada and expanded shelf presence, and some of that has come to fruition in the fourth quarter, most notably at one major retailer, but some at multiple retailers, and that is starting to really start to drive some of the growth that will be delivered in Q4 and help us deliver the year that we've guided.As we get into next year, again, we'll give guidance in February on the full year for 2024. We expect the business to continue growing in Canada. As we've talked about coming out of COVID, we expect the business to be back in that kind of low to mid-single-digit growth range that we've been at historically. We've had a few bumps this year just with inventory in [the hand of] this post-COVID recalibration. But our expectation for the future is that this business will continue to grow in Canada at those historical rates, which for a mature business like Canada with the robust BMS market are quite, I think, impressive growth rates, and we have the plans to deliver.
(Indiscernible), so you're not really seeing anything getting the way of that cadence next year?
I don't see anything getting in the way of cadence of growth. I think what we talked about a little while ago, if costs do run high, we have to take some pricing. That always puts a little noise into the system between units and dollars, but we'll balance that out as we make the choices we need to make. And we have a very strong track record of understanding how that plays out, and we'll share that in due time if that's the path that we have to take based on these negotiations we're going through.
And you've increased your guidance for the revenues from China. Can you maybe talk a little bit about what drove delta versus prior expectations? And is that more cross-border e-comm? Is that more a club? And anything you can talk about (indiscernible).
I would say, overall, it's just a continued strength in the consumption side of our brand in China across multiple channels. I would point out the e-commerce and cross-border e-commerce and the focus our team has put there on some of the KOL programs that they've been running, some of the deep understanding that we were able to hire and how to move through that very robust e-commerce system there in China and really delivering some strong consumption numbers to that platform. We've been growing there for a while. It's a great big piece of business for us, but there's so much white space for us that the team is really grabbing on to it.I mean, I was in China 2 weeks ago. I think one of the highlights of the trip was I did a 2-hour immersion one day and then a 3-hour meeting with one of the key e-commerce platforms in China while I was there. And I'll tell you, it is a completely different world than it is here in Canada, and you really can't understand it until you're immersed in it. It moves at a different speed. The scale of e-commerce there is so different than it is here, and it is the channel of choice for most consumers there. So our team is really leveraging that and doing what they need to do to drive growth in that key channel where consumers are moving to.
And one last point, if I may. If you look at SG&A next year, are there any parts of the business that we're looking to maybe invest in, a step-up investment, call it, to support growth in the U.S. or in China?
I think we'll try to get back to that normal cadence where brand growth and SG&A growth are either aligned or ideally investing much less in SG than we are growing the top line. So in any regard, any gross profit growth should fall to the bottom line from a contribution perspective.
The next question is from John Zamparo with CIBC.
I wanted to ask about consumer insights and what you're seeing on that front. And you've got some good visibility in the consumer behavior through your partners' loyalty programs, your own e-com business. I wonder what you can say about consumer choices, because the POS data you shared earlier, that's pretty encouraging. And I assume you're reading the same things that we are that points to a more cautious consumer. So I'm wondering how you reconcile those, and any changes you're seeing when it comes to basket sizes or spend per person or more promotional seeking from consumers?
Yes, that's a great question, John. So first off, the data points I quoted were the Canadian consumer, but we are seeing strength across our key markets, as I talked about. I think a couple of things. We're seeing, and we talked about this the last few quarters, actually, I think we're seeing a continuation of this. The consumer continues to shift, to shift amongst channels looking for value, not amongst brand. So you're seeing a continued shift to discount grocers where we have been building a big distribution presence. You're seeing them shift to online, where they can find some value. You see them shifting to club, where they can find value. I think it really is all coming down to what does value mean for each consumer. Does it mean a value per dose? Or does it mean a lower out-of-pocket price point on maybe a lower count product? So we continue to see that shifting.What we also continue to see is continued growth in our business and a couple of other brands that play more as higher-priced products or brands. We're seeing continued pressure on the value players. We're seeing control label pick up no share. So we're really not seeing the consumer trade down to value brands. We're seeing them look for value across channels. When you get into the subsegments, the same categories are trending that have been trending for, I'd say, 6 to 8 quarters now, sleep, stress, energy, joint care, beauty from within. We're starting to see some growth on EFA or fish oils. So it's really broad in what consumers are looking for. And I think it continues to go back to this notion or this data that points us to the fact that again, coming out of COVID, we've reset the baseline of consumers that are in the category. We have this trend of proactive or self-care going on around the world, where consumers are getting more engaged in their health. And it's really driving broad-based consumer behavior that is growing multiple categories and in multiple countries right now. With all that being said, though, I mean, I recognize the data you guys see across other categories. We see it. We recognize the macroeconomic environment out there. We monitor this like nothing else. And we continue to keep our eye on it and continue to see if there's any changes in what we're seeing. But based on the results we just released and the guidance for Q4, I think that speaks to the confidence we have in the category for the foreseeable future here.
I wanted to follow up on the inventory questions from earlier. It's up around 30% year-over-year. I assume some of that's related to the ownership of the distribution function in China. But are there levers you can pull to reduce this over the next few years, not just for Q4 or for seasonality, but over the next few years? Or is higher inventory and intentional investment you need to make in order to grow in some of those adjacent categories that you just listed, Mike?
So I think we've been clear over previous calls where we are carrying higher inventory exiting the pandemic, and that was really a function of risk management, ensuring that the supply chain stabilized and that we have the available materials to produce and distribute the products that our consumers needed. That combined with some opportunistic buys from a raw material pricing perspective, we will exit 2023 at a fairly high inventory level in comparison to the prior year. We would expect a much lower investment in working capital in fiscal 2024, and we'll provide specific details around the guidance of that in February as we see how things evolve here in the fourth quarter.Okay. And then last one for me is on China, and you talked about the attractiveness of that market and the investments you want to make to build the brand. It's such a strong sales growth market. I wonder when you expect it to be a material driver or contributor to overall EBITDA growth, and whether that's closer to a 1- or 2-year goal or maybe if that's more a 3- to 5-year plan?
I think it's over time. As the sales of that organization are realized, to the infrastructure that we've built there today is going to pay dividends. Certainly, we're investing now for the future, and we'll continue to invest ahead of contribution growth here for the foreseeable future to internally maximize that opportunity long-term for the business. But we are funding that with efficiency created in Canada, so we're not really stealing from a reported results perspective. We're taking some of that efficiency and applying it to our highest growth areas to drive long-term value, balancing profit growth and longer-term revenue growth. And that's consistent for both the U.S. and China.
Yes. I would just add one more thing to that, and that is that business, John, is not operating at an EBIT loss today. It's just a matter of getting the EBIT margins over time up to what is the standard of Jamieson. And to Chris' point, that will come at scale. But we are not investing in that business to a point of a loss.
This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Pilato for any closing remarks.
Perfect. Thank you all for joining us today and for your questions. We're really proud of the team for delivering another quarter of growth, and we feel really confident in our strategic plans, moving forward. We are now as a company, 100% focused on execution in the fourth quarter. Look forward to closing the year, and we look forward to speaking to you all in February with those full-year results and our guidance for 2024.Have a great night. Thanks for joining, and we'll talk to you all soon.
This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.