KP Tissue Inc
TSX:KPT
Earnings Call Analysis
Q4-2023 Analysis
KP Tissue Inc
In the face of continued economic uncertainty, the company delivered robust top-line growth and profitability in the fourth quarter and the full year. Despite the turbulent effects of COVID and inflation, improvements in capabilities and strategic approaches have bolstered resilience to enduring market volatility. With a forward-looking stance for 2024, the company is set to manage margins amidst imminent pulp price rises while intensifying brand investment to fuel long-term growth. In addition, the company is augmenting capacity to satisfy robust demand through expansions like the Sherbrooke project and innovations in facial tissue lines.
The company has made noteworthy strides in market share within facial tissue and paper towel categories, bolstered by strategic investments that establish a more formidable competitive stance for 2024. This gain is underwritten by Scotties' facial tissue's availing opportunity within the Canadian market following Kleenex's grocery market exit. The Away-From-Home segment also evidences sustainable success, securing a consistent adjusted EBITDA. Efforts to maintain this trajectory will include leveraging the company's expansion projects and increased capabilities.
The fourth quarter saw an adjusted EBITDA of $61.2 million on sales of $482.3 million, signaling an improvement over the last year. This performance was driven by various factors including higher adjusted EBITDA, decreased depreciation, a more favorable foreign exchange environment, and lower interest expenses. Sequentially, there is noticeable growth in Consumer segment revenue in both the US and Canada, with a slight sequential decline in the Away-From-Home segment due to seasonality.
Investments in marketing and strategic initiatives have been undertaken in anticipation of further strengthening the operation's competitive edge as it enters into 2024. The company's CapEx for fiscal 2023 reached $185.4 million, which includes a significant dedication to the Sherbrooke Expansion. For fiscal 2024, CapEx is projected to be between $200 million and $220 million, accounting for regular and maintenance expenditures. Despite these investments, the leverage ratio has improved and is projected to stabilize within the current range due to strategic debt financing and project completion.
Organic growth coupled with strategic acquisitions forms the core growth strategy for the company. Executive leadership actively seeks out value-creating acquisition opportunities which are economically and strategically aligned with the company's vision. This poised stance for growth is inherent and persistent as the company scouts for opportunities to expand geographically and enhance capabilities.
In a significant executive transition, CFO Mark Holbrook is set to retire after a decorated tenure with Kruger Products. His leadership and counsel have been paramount to the company's success. Although stepping down from the CFO role, Holbrook will continue to serve as a special advisor, tackling strategic projects until the end of 2025. Michael Keays, with an extensive background in finance at Kruger Products, will succeed Holbrook as CFO. This passing of the torch is envisaged to be smooth, with Keays poised to drive financial objectives and growth.
Despite rising pulp prices being a significant challenge, the company foresees its margins to remain steadfast, with adjusted EBITDA echoing the range of Q4 2023. The strong volume and operational effectiveness are expected to balance the volatility in pulp prices and weaken the Canadian dollar, which contribute to a cautious outlook for the initial quarter of 2024.
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Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the KP Tissue Fourth Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Before turning the meeting over to management, I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded on Thursday, March 7, 2024. I will now hand the call over to Mike Baldesarra, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, operator. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Mike Baldesarra. I'm the Director of Investor Relations at KP Tissue Inc. The purpose of the conference call today is to review the financial results of the fourth quarter of 2023 for Kruger Products, which I'll refer to as Kruger Product going forward. With me this morning is Dino Bianco, the Chief Executive Officer of KP Tissue and Kruger Products; and Mark Holbrook, the Chief Financial Officer of KP Tissue and Kruger Products. The following discussions and responses to questions contain forward-looking statements concerning the company's activities. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which could cause the actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. Investors are cautioned not to rely on these forward-looking statements. The company does not undertake to update these forward-looking statements, except if required by applicable laws. There's a page at the beginning of the written presentation, which contains the usual legal cautions, including as to the forward-looking information, which you should be aware of. I'd like to point out that all figures expressed in today's call are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated. The press release reporting our Q4 2023 results were published this morning and will be accessible from our website at kptissueinc.com. Please be aware that our MD&A will be posted on our website and will also be available on SEDAR. Finally, I would ask that during the call to refer to the presentation we have prepared to accompany these discussions, which is also available on the website. We'd also appreciate that during the Q&A period for you to limit your questions to two. Thank you for your collaboration. Ladies and gentlemen, I'll now turn the call over to Dino Bianco, our CEO. Dino?
Thank you, Mike. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings call. We are pleased with our strong financial results in fiscal 2023. We delivered record revenue and record adjusted EBITDA, driven by many positive factors. Overall, our business benefited from robust volume, positive margin management and strong operational efficiency across our network. In our consumer segment, we gained market share within the facial tissue and paper towel categories, while improving our share trend on bathroom tissue. We also stepped up to support and supply Scotties' facial tissue to consumers and customers, given the exit of Kleenex from the Canadian grocery market. Our Away-From-Home business continued to deliver sustainable results with another strong adjusted EBITDA quarter and year. In the fourth quarter, our underlying results remained solid despite strategically increasing investments in marketing and operational maintenance to enable us to enter 2024 in a stronger competitive position. Looking ahead, we plan to manage our margins amid rising pulp costs, continue to invest in our brands, grow our facial tissue position and implement a successful startup of our Sherbrooke Expansion. Now let's review our quarterly numbers on Slide 6. Revenue growth of 5.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023 can mainly be attributed to higher sales volume, partially offset by increased promotional spending year-over-year. Canadian revenues increased 4.8% in the fourth quarter, while the U.S. improved 5.9%. Adjusted EBITDA was up 37.9% year-over-year to $61.2 million in the fourth quarter, mainly driven by higher sales volume and a lower cost base. Mark will provide you with more details in the financial section. Turning to full year financial results on Slide 7. Record revenue of $1.9 billion grew 11.4% year-over-year on the strength of higher sales volume, the positive effect of selling price increases implemented during 2022 and a favorable foreign exchange impact on U.S. dollar sales. Canadian revenues rose 7.4% in 2023, while the U.S. grew at 17.1%. In terms of profitability, adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $238.6 million in 2023 for the same reasons as revenue growth, along with lower pulp prices and reduced freighted expenses. These factors were partially offset by higher other input cost inflation, increased manufacturing overhead and higher SG&A expenses compared to the prior year. On Slide 8, Pulp average prices in Canadian dollars increased single digits in the fourth quarter of 2023 from the previous quarter, while year-over-year prices dropped. NBSK and BEK average prices fell 24.6% and 32.1% year-over-year in Q4 2023. Based on industry forecasts, and we've already witnessed this early in 2024, pulp prices are expected to rise over the course of the year. Let's move on to Sherbrooke operations and our expansion at that site, which is on Slide 9. Our TAD operations continue to track above expectations. Construction on our new production facility is progressing well as our facial tissue line began production in early February and our paper machine startup is expected in early Q4 2024. Of note, this extra capacity from these assets will help us supply our increased demand across North America. Turning to the facial market update on Slide 10. As the Canadian leading supplier of facial tissue, we are fulfilling consumer demand following the grocery exit of the Kleenex brand in Canada by providing more innovation and expanding our distribution. We are delivering Scotties facial tissues in different format sizes and quality types to diverse needs and requirements of our consumers. We have also expanded our facial distribution with new customers in the U.S. to serve that market. Scotties made significant gains in the fourth quarter by achieving a 38.9% share of total facial tissue sales in Canada, which is according to Nielsen's 52-week numbers. These figures are even higher for 4-week and 12-week data, which will be reflected in future 52-week numbers. To meet demand for added -- we added capacity, the new facial line within our Sherbrooke Expansion has been running since early February. And we also recently announced the acquisition of a new line in our Gatineau, Quebec facility, which will increase capacity by 25% there. This new Gatineau line reflects an additional $14.5 million investment that will deliver much needed facial supply for us to grow in the North American facial market. Aligned with these new assets, we are increasing marketing efforts to further build brand awareness for Scotties across Canada, while expanding our facial presence in the United States. Turning to our Memphis operations on Slide 11. We are happy with the progress made on our TAD manufacturing operations. Paper production efficiency has stabilized, and we expect performance to continue to improve. In terms of converting, we're writing a longer learning curve there, but investments are being made in maintenance and technical leadership to improve performance. The deployment of digital twin and AI tools has been successful on the new facial line in Memphis and we are expanding this capability across our TAD converting assets at the site as well. Finally, we are relaunching our operational excellence program at the site, while leveraging best practices from both Sherbrooke and Memphis. As a result of these actions, we should see progressive improvement in output throughout the year. Now let's move on to brand support on Slide 12. As mentioned earlier, we made incremental marketing investments in the fourth quarter to drive brand share in a highly competitive environment. Multi-brand activities continued with our 'Unapologetically Human', 'Love is Messy' campaign and we unveiled the fourth year of a successful Kruger big assist program for young hockey players across the country. In terms of Canadian brands, we increased media support on Scotties, Bonterra and UltraLuxe during the quarter to drive awareness and purchase. We also maintained strong shopper marketing and activation behind the sports partnerships, such as our entrenched relationship with hockey and NHL. In the United States, strategic shopper investments behind White Cloud continues to drive trial and awareness across the portfolio. Turning to Slide 13. The data presented is taken from Nielsen. It shows market share performance over a 52-week period ending December 30, 2023. The data validates our investments as shares growing in facial tissue and paper towel after high inflationary period in the prior year. Share gains are up 2.9 percentage points and 2.1 percentage points year-over-year for these respective categories. As for bathroom tissue, we are improving our share trend in what is a highly competitive category. Looking at away from home on Slide 14. Sales volume in the fourth quarter increased 6% year-over-year and was stable sequentially. AFH has now delivered six consecutive quarters of positive EBITDA, including robust profitability in Q4 2023. I believe that the foundations we have put in place in this business is having a positive impact on profitability. Going forward, asset performance and the start-up of our new paper machine will provide strong growth opportunities for AFH. However, we keep monitoring the potential impact of an economic slowdown on the AFH market due to its increased exposure to shifting economic conditions. I will now turn the call over to Mark. Mark?
Thank you, Dino, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 15 for a summary of our financial performance for the fourth quarter of 2023. As Dino mentioned, we delivered adjusted EBITDA of $61.2 million on sales of $482.3 million in the quarter, a marked improvement over the same period last year. I will comment on net income, which totaled $16.5 million in the fourth quarter compared to $16 million in Q4 2022. The increase can be attributed to several factors with the higher adjusted EBITDA of $16.8 million year-over-year playing a major part in generating growth, along with lower depreciation and amortization expense, a higher foreign exchange gain and lower interest expense. These were mostly offset by the comparison to a 2022 gain and the change in the amortized cost of the partnership units liability. In the quarterly segmented view on Slide 16, Consumer revenue increased 5.8% year-over-year to $400.9 million in the fourth quarter and 2.7% sequentially from Q3 2023. Consumer segment revenue rose both in Canada and the U.S. year-over-year. In the Away-From-Home segment, revenue improved 2.6% year-over-year to $81.4 million in the fourth quarter, but declined 2.1% sequentially from a seasonally strong Q3. Consumer adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter totaled $59.8 million compared to $42.7 million in Q4 2022, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14.9% versus 11.3% for the same respective period. Sequentially, consumer adjusted EBITDA was down $6.1 million or 9.2% from Q3 2023. For our AFH business, adjusted EBITDA amounted to $5.7 million in the fourth quarter, the same compared to last year's results with a margin of 7%. Sequentially, AFH adjusted EBITDA was down $2.7 million from Q3 2023, reflecting the seasonality. On Slide 17, we review year-over-year consolidated revenue growth for Q4, which grew $24.2 million or 5.3%. Growth was driven by higher sales volume, partially offset by increased promotional spending. On a geographical basis, revenues in Canada rose $12.5 million or 4.8% year-over-year, while U.S. revenues grew $11.7 million or 5.9%. On Slide 18, we provide additional insight into profitability for the fourth quarter. Adjusted EBITDA increased by $16.8 million to $61.2 million, representing a margin of 12.7% from $44.4 million in Q4 last year or a margin of 9.7%. Several factors contributed to generating strong adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter, including higher sales volume, lower pulp and other input costs, increased productivity and operations and lower freight costs. These factors were partially offset by increased promotional spending along with higher warehousing and SG&A expenses. Now let's turn to Slide 19, where we compare Q4 revenue sequentially to Q3 2023. Revenue improved by $8.9 million or 1.9%, mainly due to higher sales volume in our consumer segment and an increase in FX on U.S. dollar sales. Geographically, revenue in Canada grew by $7.3 million or 2.7% sequentially, while revenue in the U.S. rose by $1.6 million or 0.8%. On Slide 20, adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter decreased sequentially by $11.2 million or 15.4% on higher pulp costs, increased freight and warehousing expenses, higher plant overhead costs as well as incremental marketing and SG&A expenses. These factors were partially offset by greater sales volume. Adjusted EBITDA margin of 12.7% was down 2.6 margin points from 15.3% in Q3. Turning to our balance sheet and financial position on Slide 21. Our cash position stood at $135.7 million at the end of the fourth quarter, a decrease of $15.4 million from Q3 2023. The sequential decrease in cash is mainly explained by lower adjusted EBITDA generated in the fourth quarter. Year-over-year, cash increased by $57.3 million. Total long-term debt at quarter end stood at $1.03 billion, down $32.1 million from the end of the previous quarter. Net debt decreased $15.8 million sequentially to $933 million as improved working capital allowed us to pay down debt. As a result, our net debt to last 12 months adjusted EBITDA ratio decreased to 3.9x in the fourth quarter from 4.3x in Q3 and 8.9x in Q4 2022. Leverage improved on the strength of a lower net debt and higher adjusted EBITDA in the last 12 months. We expect our leverage ratio to remain in the 4x range in 2024 as we were using debt financing for the Sherbrooke Expansion, and there is significant capital spending for the final year of the project. At quarter end, total liquidity representing cash and cash equivalents and availability from revolving credit agreements stood at $326.7 million. In addition, $15 million of cash was held for the Sherbrooke Expansion. I'll conclude my section by reviewing capital expenditures on Slide 22. Total CapEx in Q4 was $79.6 million, including $58.1 million for the Sherbrooke Expansion. For fiscal 2023, CapEx stood at $185.4 million including $148.4 million for the Sherbrooke Expansion. The total capital cost of the Sherbrooke Expansion remains at $378 million, with a significant portion of that coming in 2024. We have, therefore, increased our CapEx forecast for fiscal 2024 to between $200 million and $220 million. This range includes between $45 million to $55 million for regular and maintenance CapEx. Thank you and for joining us this morning, and I'll now turn the call over to Dino.
Thank you, Mark. Please turn to Slide 24 for my closing comments. We delivered broad top line growth and strong profitability in the fourth quarter and the fiscal year despite what continues to be an uncertain economic environment. After the impact of COVID and 2022 inflation, we've really improved our capabilities and approach, which I believe will make our business more resilient to future volatility. As we look ahead to 2024, we intend to manage our margins amid rising pulp prices. We will continue investing in our brands to drive long-term growth. We will increase capacity to meet strong demand through our Sherbrooke expansion and our new facial lines. Our Away-From-Home segment should maintain its upward trajectory and continue to deliver against sustainable profit model. As Mark mentioned, our leverage ratio is expected to remain within its current range based on the final year of spending for the Sherbrooke expansion project in 2024. And finally, we will keep investing in our organization and capabilities to drive future growth. Now let's turn our attention to the outlook for the first quarter of 2024. We expect margins to remain consistent and adjusted EBITDA to be in a similar range to Q4 2023. Before I open the line to questions, I'd like to take this opportunity to recognize Mark Holbrook, on a successful 26-year career with Kruger Products and many contributions to the grocery industry over a distinguished 30-year -- 38-year career. Mark's steadfast leadership and sound advice has been instrumental to the success of our company and Mark's guidance, objectivity and knowledge have been critical for me as I joined the company 6 years ago. This will be Mark's last official earnings call for Kruger Products as CFO, but we are fortunate to have Mark continue in the organization until the end of 2025. Mark will be a special adviser reporting to me and he will work on many key strategic projects. Mark will also provide a strong transition to Michael Keays, our new CFO effective March 11, 2024. Michael has been with Kruger Products since 2008 and has built his career in various progressive finance leadership roles across our businesses in Canada, U.S. and Mexico. We are confident that Michael will play a pivotal role in driving our financial objectives, fostering continued sustainable growth and building the finance team's capabilities. I and Kruger Products are fortunate to have two strong leaders and Mark and Michael continue in their new roles. We will now be happy to take your questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Hamir Patel of CIBC.
Dino, with one of your U.S. competitors undertaking a strategic review of their own tissue business. It looks like we're going to see some industry consolidation play out. Would KP consider expanding a platform via M&A? And how do you think about what comes next after Sherbrooke?
Yes, it's a great question, Hamir. Obviously, this has been a topic for a while. I think I've been asked this on previous calls. I would support the comment that this industry needs to consolidate some way. I know one of our competitors has been a little more blunt about that. Look, we're a growing company. We grow organically, and we've grown through acquisition. It's been part of our DNA in the history, and we'll continue to be our -- part of our DNA going forward. We're always looking for opportunities geographically, capability-wise to grow. And I'm going to just say what I always say, which is we look at everything and we talk about nothing. And clearly, I think you know enough about our organization, that if there is a chance that is strategically a good fit and economically a good fit where value creation can happen, we will be there looking at it. And there's nothing different about the -- tomorrow versus what it was yesterday.
Fair enough. And I just want to ask about the market care slide. Clearly, we're seeing momentum in facial, would you expect that to continue into '24? Or did a lot of that Kleenex exit already show up in the fourth quarter?
Yes. So I show you 52-week shares there, right? So -- and I mentioned in my comments, even though we don't talk about it, I don't share it, we see the 4-week and the 12-weeks. So 4-week in this case would be the month of December and the 12-week could be to Q4. We do see stronger shares there for us because that's the prime time that Kleenex is exiting. Those will start reflecting in the 52-week as they become a greater part of the 52-week. Our approach going forward on this when the news was made public is that we believe we should. And we're starting to -- we're seeing that already that we should be at least fair share gain of any losses that come that from Kleenex. We certainly feel our brands are very strong and very committed to the Canadian market with Scotties. So we have a great brand and now we've added capacity to make sure that we can fulfill the demand. And not just adding capacity but also adding capability around innovation and new formats to make sure that we look after the needs of consumers certainly in Canada, but also we're looking to expand in the United States with our U.S. partners.
Okay. Great. And just a final question for Mark. It looks like the CapEx budget for '24 was raised slightly. How do we think about the sort of step down in CapEx in '25?
Hamir. Yes, we're looking at about $200 million to $220 million for 2024. That includes a substantial portion for the Sherbrooke Expansion. We typically don't give out 2025 at this point in time. But certainly, with the completion of the project, we would see a step down from that back to more normalized, and that's still leaving it's open for any strategic investment that we might do in '25 as well, but we'll save that for a later call, and Michael can comment further. Thanks.
That's fair enough. And yes, Mark, all the best in retirement. That's all ahead.
Our next question comes from the line of Sean Steuart at TD.
Just one question. The bridge to flat quarter-over-quarter EBITDA. I guess I'm just trying to understand the puts and takes there. So you'll have further pulp cost inflation, presumably reflected in the numbers. Is the flat earnings simply a function of a lower promotional spend? Is there any other factors that are feeding into that?
No, I think you hit it on the head. I mean we said in the range up. So we don't have that level of position, whether it's going to be flat or slightly better. So we use the term in the range, which will mean that what we're seeing as it relates to volume, our volume, we believe, will continue to stay very strong. Our operations will continue to stay very strong. Obviously, we're onboarding our new assets. So that will bear out later in the year with the facial lines. The biggest wild card is, as you mentioned, is what's going on with pulp, and we have seen a very dramatic increase in pulp pricing. We've also seen some weakening of the Canadian dollar. So we're cautious there. And that's probably the biggest headwind against what I think are many, many positive things going on in the quarter, and that's why we're being, I think, fairly cautious in the way that we talked about the first quarter given that volatility.
Okay. One other question, Dino. You touched on the away-from-home business being more exposed to macro headwinds or tailwinds? And I think the suggestion was you're cautious potentially on that front given a certain macro like maybe reading too much into it, but are you seeing any signs of emerging weakness in demand into that channel? Any further context you can give us there?
Yes. Sometimes in that channel, the potential of a recession has just as much impact as an actual recession because everybody starts to pull back a little bit in anticipation of a recession. So I would say there's a lot of debate whether we're going to be in a recession or just an economic slowdown or whatever. And I'm not going to comment on kind of what we're hearing from Bank of Canada and others that are experts in this area. But I would say, we probably saw a little bit of inventory tightening coming out of the fourth quarter. I think some of it may be just be normal. I don't -- I'm not anticipating any. I'm not trying to send any coated messages. I just think it's important that just given where we are and where the economic state is that I make a comment on that. The other part of your question could be, if there's economic impacts to AFH, there's generally a benefit on the consumer side. People are staying at home more or are not going out for dinner, and they're eating at home, we could benefit on the consumer side as it relates to tissue usage. So I wouldn't read too much into it other than a statement of potential that could happen.
Okay. And congrats to both Mark and Michael.
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Zach Evershed at National Bank Financial.
This is Nathan calling in for Zach. So my first question is your -- regarding your market share. So obviously, your market share took a noticeable jump in facial after the Kleenex exit, has taken that incremental share put any strain on your capacity on either the production side or the converting side?
Well, it did coming out of last year. But as I mentioned in my notes, Nathan, we are benefiting from our long ago announced stuff, facial line in the Sherbrooke Expansion, which has started up so that it is running. And then we were able to secure an additional asset in late Q4, a brand-new asset in our Gatineau facility. So those two assets, in addition to the legacy assets that we have across our network, which are all running quite well, by the way, we feel now that we have the capacity and firepower and capability to be able to take advantage of the growth opportunities, including the Kleenex exit in our strong facial category.
That's great. And so with the commissioning of the facial tissue converting on, can you give some color into your integration rates and how this will affect that?
By integration rates, I assume you're talking about our ramp-up curve in terms of production. I won't give you any numbers other than to say that the Gatineau line -- let's talk about both lines, the Gatineau line and the Gatineau team at our Gatineau facility who already have facial equipment there did an outstanding job of commissioning that line in a very short period of time and really got ahead of the ramp-up curve quickly. So I give that team tremendous credit and what they have done. They should all be very proud of what they're able to do in a time of much need. And then on the Kleenex side, we had announced that, that got delayed from Q4 into Q1 because of supply chain challenges, but that line started up in early February. And it too has exceeded its ramp-up curve at this point. Still early. We're only a few weeks into it. But that group in Sherbrooke facility is also doing an outstanding job of beating with that curve because we all understand that the market opportunity exists and consumers need facial. So everything we're making, we're basically selling. And I think that's a key motivator as much for our overperformance on the facial category.
And currently, there are no further questions in the queue at this time. So I'll hand the floor back to our speakers for the closing comments.
Great. Thank you all for joining us on this call today. I again want to thank Mark and congratulate Michael and I look forward to continuing to work with both of you over the coming years. As far as the earnings call, we look forward to speaking with you again following the release of our first quarter results. Thank you, and have a great day.
Thank you. This now concludes the conference. Thank you all very much for attending. You may now disconnect your lines.