Valeura Energy Inc
TSX:VLE
Earnings Call Analysis
Q4-2023 Analysis
Valeura Energy Inc
The company has successfully completed deals in 2022, leading to an acquisition of 11% interest in the Wassana field, resulting in significant value increase and potential for future growth. Although they faced a setback by not coming to an agreement on Rossukon, they successfully negotiated a deal which allows for royalty payments from a partner's operation, securing an initial payment of $5 million.
With a strong lifting schedule in Q4, the company managed to produce around 5.8 million barrels, exceeding their production compared to the same quarter in the previous year. Their crude has been trading at a premium to Brent, which bodes well for their financials.
The fourth quarter saw a pretax cash flow from operations nearing $90 million and a year-end cash flow around $152 million, confirming the company's assets are highly cash generative. With a closing cash balance between $150 million to $151 million, they've made a marked improvement over the previous quarter and have positioned themselves with strong liquidity and a healthy balance sheet.
Looking ahead to 2024, the company is guiding average production to be around 23,000 barrels per day, with plans to lower operational expenses to approximately $26 per barrel. New wells in Manora and Jasmine, and redevelopment decisions for Wassana, are part of their strategy to maintain steady production rates amidst natural field declines. Several exploration wells are slated for the year, representing potential new development opportunities.
The company proudly announces that it is a debt-free, cash-rich company, highlighting a ten-fold increase in both assets and shareholder equity, comparatively speaking year-over-year. This financial strength is partly due to strategic reserve replacements and operational efficiencies which reduced the decommissioning costs by approximately 30% from the time of acquisition.
Despite the transformation in 2023, the executives emphasize further growth in 2024 and maintain their focus on profitability. The production outlook remains strong, with a strategic focus on profitability and enhancements, setting the stage for what they believe to be another exciting year.
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Welcome, everyone. Thanks for joining us for this Valeura Energy webcast. Today, we're discussing Valeura's 2023, 2024, and we'll make a replay available on our website within about 24 hours. [Operator Instructions] To submit a question, you can either use the Q&A feature in teams or you can e-mail us using ir@valeuraenergy.com. I'd also like to draw your attention to our disclaimers and advisories. These are at the front of our slide deck, which should be on your screen now. And the slides are also available on our website. I'll note, in particular, the cautionary language around forward-looking information and ask that you read this at your leisure. So with that, I will ask Sean to unmute your microphone and you can go ahead.
Thank you very much, Robin, and thank you for everyone joining us here today. It's been about a year since we closed the deal with Mubadala to acquire their Gulf of Thailand assets, and this has led to really the complete transformation of Valeura. So 2023 was a very exciting year that allowed us to demonstrate this transformation across many areas of our business. So firstly, technically, we have 4 fields all producing underpinning very strong cash flow. We are currently producing approximately 23,000 barrels a day. Through drilling activity in 2023, we've increased the reserves and the value of every field and also extended the field life of every field. Now while delayed in 2023, we returned the Wassana field to production after 3 years of being in suspension and have recently increased it's production approximately 15% and above those pre-shut-in levels. And on growth, the expansion of the Nong Yao fields started in 2023 and is currently progressing on site and we should deliver by midyear approximately 50% growth in production to 11,000 barrels a day. And then further, with appraisal drilling in 2023 on Wassana we identified significant future growth potential at this field. Now in 2023 organizationally, we brought 3 companies together into 1 organization and have moved the corporate office to Asia. Valeura is now a significant player in Thailand and we're recognized in the Southeast Asian region. On M&A, since closing the Mubadala acquisition at the end of Q1, we've completed 2 small M&A deals, which at the time we referred to as really equity consolidation. However, both are yielding accretive value. Now financially, in less than 1 year, we've transformed the balance sheet to 1 that is resilient and positions us for future growth, but I'll let you see and go into more detail about that. And importantly, looking up on the slide, for those of you who have been with us on this journey over this past couple of years, you've been rewarded through share price growth. At the beginning of 2022, Valeura's share price was just over $0.40, and now we find ourselves over $4, a tenfold increase in just over 2 years. But even with that growth, when I kind of review our current assets and comparing these with our trading metrics, we anticipate another good year of returns in 2024, and we seem to be off to a good start. Okay. Next slide, please, Robin. So looking a little bit more at 2023. Now at the time of the deals, we referenced that we were transforming the company into a strongly cash flowing business with significant future organic growth potential. And it's important to me that I really address these and really show people that we said that we were going to do, and we've been able to meet or exceed these expectations. So first off, I look at strong cash flowing business and the other point is significant future organic growth potential. Now at the time of doing Mubadala acquisition, most people could see what the strong cash flowing business. But in general, the concern was that given the reserve report that these would be limited for a year or 2, followed by steep production declines. We've demonstrated in 2023 that this isn't the case. So first off, just looking at cash flow. That's pretty clear. I think Yacine will talk more about this. But simply, if you compare the cash and bank at year-end 2022 to the end of 2023 when we have more than USD 150 million in the bank, you can see that these assets generate cash. Looking at revenue, production up, pricing up. 2023 production was within guidance. It was below target due to the Wassana field being offline for 5 months. However, our team were able to minimize this loss of production by using drill rig on the other fields. With Wassana now back online, we are currently producing about 23,000 barrels a day, more than 10% above our '23 average. I'll note though that this is roughly on or slightly above our current plan for '24. Oil prices were good in '23 and price is continuing to be strong heading into '24. Now based on historical data, we've guided the market to use Brent pricing for our pricing. However, what we did see is that we're seeming to get a both Brent in that to a slight premium. And in fact, with where oil price has been sitting this week, we're getting close to $90 a barrel for the oil. Looking at cost as it relates to cash flow. So in 2023, we delivered cost reduction that enhanced this cash flow, and we're targeting further reductions in '24. Our initial guidance a year ago on OpEx was looking at about $30 a barrel. And in the end, we're able to deliver about $28. This year's guidance has at about $26 a barrel, and that's even considering that we have a new leased MOPU that we're going to have to pay for the year, Nong Yao. On 2023 capital spend, we came in well under the CapEx guidance in '23 and a lot of it driven by better drilling performance with the new rig we're using there, doing more with less. No make on cost is that in '23, we introduced a continuous improvement program in the office in Bangkok, and we've seen the staff respond very well to this coming forward with ideas for further cost reductions. And that's what used to really drive cost down as we move into '24 and beyond. And while it's not directly related to cash flow, the other point you'll notice is abandonment cost. Now the decommissioning obligation on our balance sheet has been reduced 30% relative to where it was when we closed Mubadala deal, and we still see more potential to bring that down in '24 with more engineering studies. But in summary, after just 9 months of operations, this decommissioning liability is actually less than our cash balance we've been able to achieve. So the cash flow is clear, but Robin, just moving on to the next slide. But just as important is sustaining that cash flow through organic growth in the assets. Since we announced Mubadala acquisition in late '22, in every presentation, we've tried to talk about the Gulf of Thailand and the ability to extend field life and show the history of actually reserve additions in the fields we've acquired. However, we appreciate that this is challenging for many investors as they're not used to seeing strong and continued reserve growth in producing fields. But summarizing what's happened since we announced this deal. In 2022, we had over 100% reserve replacement, and yet that was still operated by Mubadala. In 2023, we were able to deliver over 200% reserve replacement with Valeura now commencing operatorship. And importantly, every field has had the reserves increase in '23, and every field has had its end-of-field life extended out into the future. This is not just driven by an increase in 1 field. It's across all fields. And again, if you've heard me before in the field, I'd like to go back and highlight is Manora which when we did this deal in '21, that field was supposed to be abandoned in '22. And you'll now see that, that's been pushed out to middle of '27. So when we push the abandonment of 5 years in just 2 years on that 1 field. Looking at Wassana in a little more detail. Wassana field, we kind of call that field our highlight and our low light for '23. Now while the field is back online and the infill drilling has increased the production to about 5,000 barrels a day, these are barrels that were already in our reserves. What is more important to consider is that the appraisal drilling we did in '23 has shown that there is significantly more oil in the ground and that this can support a redevelopment of this field and production extending well into the 2030s. And finally, another point to note there on the bottom of this slide, is that while we increased cash with our production in '23, the value of the assets has gone in '23 from $261 million to $429 million. So we're seeing an increase in the reserve value as well as being able to take cash from the assets. So in summary, in '23, we demonstrated the cash flow from the assets we proved that the reserves are not just being replaced, but they're actually being increased so that these assets will continue to deliver this cash flow into the future. In addition, we've also reduced the future obligations related to abandonment. So a couple of other points I just want to note before handing over to Yacine. M&A. So once we completed the deals in 2022, the question from everyone was, when's the next deal? And a comment at that time was that we did not see another large deal in '23, but then we anticipated some equity consolidation deals. Deals around the assets that we had just acquired. So -- and following on from that, early in '23, we acquired the last 11% interest in the Wassana field. And this has subsequently worked out and been highly accretive on given the value increase we're seeing at Wassana and the future potential there. Now unfortunately, while we are disappointed that we were not able to come to an agreement on Rossukon to progress on that development with our partner, we negotiated a deal to allow the partner to proceed, and we have a gross overriding royalty on that field of 4.65% on what was our 43% working interest. The operator has brought that Rossukon field online. We received an initial $5 million payment as agreed, and we expect royalty payments will begin soon. And one last highlight I'd like to point to also is that in the short time we've been operating in Thailand, it's the relationships that we've been able to develop in a country. First, internally, and someone commented to me recently in Bangkok. You never know that this was, in fact, 3 separate organizations less than a year ago. The teams have gelled together very well. And I believe that's on the back of having interesting work, the extension of field life and a collective desire to also keep adding value through growth. Externally as well in Thailand. We recently celebrated our first year of operations in Thailand with more than 100 people from the industry in Bangkok attending. We're very pleased with the strong support we have received from the regulator the DMF, the Canadian Embassy in Thailand from the [ National ] Oil Company, PTTEP, and from all of our suppliers and service providers in country. So an exciting year. And at that point, I'll hand over to Yacine to talk a little bit more about the finances.
Hello, everyone. Thank you, Robin. I guess before starting on this slide, maybe a couple of preamble when it comes to the numbers, especially for the year [indiscernible]. It's worth highlighting or emphasizing again that the -- from an accounting perspective, since the transaction -- the closing of the transaction for Mubadala occurred on the 22nd of March, effectively, we can only book again, from an accounting perspective, only the revenues on [indiscernible] from that days onward. And again, when it comes to cost, but obviously, when -- I think over the next few slides, we've tried to -- also try to provide some sort of a pro forma basis especially when it comes to the key metrics that we provided when it comes to guidance, be it on OpEx, CapEx or production itself. But I guess, this really -- this slide is really highlight what has Sean been talking in terms of how '23 have panned out for Valeura. If you compare Valeura at the beginning of the year to where it is today, you can see now you're looking at the production in terms of how much we lift. We do operate quite a material position now. It's in Thailand and the [ Wassana ] and the desire is to grow that both organically and inorganically. So notwithstanding this as well, we're not just -- we don't just have a material operated position. We also have quite a highly cash-generative portfolios overall. I will walk you through to the financials. But I think, again, kind of nearing what Sean was mentioning in terms of how the balance sheet looks today compared to what it was before, which sets us in the right direction in terms of trying to do more going forward. So starting maybe with the with the revenue drivers there on the top left-hand side. For Q4, we registered around 19,200 barrels per day net working production to us. And in terms of -- from the day we closed the transaction of Wassana or Mubadala, we have recorded an average during this period only from i.e. from the 22nd of March till the end of the year of around 20,200. This also actually mathematically equal to the production of the assumed pro forma from the first of January. I think the difference there is just around 20 barrels per day less. From a lifting perspective, in Q4, we did have quite a strong lifting schedule which translate in around 2 million barrels. Again, it's slightly higher than the actual production, and we'll show this in the next slide. On -- from a full year basis, we have closed around 6 million barrels. Now from a cost perspective, as Sean said, overall, we have come below our guidance when it comes to CapEx and just at the lower end of the guidance when it comes to OpEx. But I think it's worth highlighting that during this period, we were still having Wassana which was during most of the period was shut in, yet we were still incurring costs. And that to a certain extent, we see this improving going forward to next year. From a cash generation portfolio for the full year, we've recorded in our P&L around close to $500 million of revenues. And for the quarter was just shy of $170 million. We translate of an EBITDA for the quarter of around $67 million or full year basis of $230 million or $231 million. Importantly, as you can see from a cash flow from operation for the quarter is quite a good quarter. We generated around $56 million, which is quite high compared to the last quarter. Again, the last quarter and to a certain extent, even the fourth quarter Wassana was still most of the time shut-in, Wassana only -- we only restarted Wassana in the tail of December. And for the full year, we recorded around $152 million. Looking at the balance sheet. As Sean mentioned, we closed the year with around $151 million of cash. We have repaid all the debt. The last trench was paid in October, and that was $12.5 million. So we stand today as of the 31st of December with 0 debt, just cash. I think what you can see there as well is what the book value of Valeura at the year-end at the 31st of December. I will come back to this point in terms of what this value means conceptually. Next slide, please, Robin. So from a working interest production, as you can see, fourth quarter came at around 4% less than the last quarter. This is really a reflection of some work that was done predominantly on Nong Yao, which led to a decline to a certain extent notwithstanding the natural decline that comes in the field. But I'm happy to report that Nong Yao today is around 3.7 -- 3.3 points sorry, 7,300 barrels per day. Wassana have restarted as we said in December. So that's why you can see the production down at around 400 -- close to 450 barrels per day. Wassana today, we expect it to be around the 4,000 barrels a day -- so around 5,000 barrels. I think what's important here is to see that like if we look at the Q4 that 12,200 barrels per day. Today, the production in the last -- from the first of March and 16th of March was around 23,000 barrels per day, as Sean mentioned. And during this period, since we acquired Mubadala -- effectively what we've booked in our P&L, we've produced around 5.8 million barrels in this period, which equates to 20,440. Next slide, please. Robin. From a lifting perspective, as I mentioned, we did have quite a good -- a busy schedule in terms of lifting for this quarter where we lifted around 2 million barrels. You can see it's higher than the production during the quarter. I think what's -- as you can see as well, there a collective reduction in terms of inventory. I think we've mentioned last -- in one of the few calls before communicated the market that the level of inventory is something that we're going to be keeping an eye on going in '24, but certainly happy to see that number have come down compared to Q3. In terms of realized price, as Sean mentioned, we have been guiding the market towards parity to Brent. But as you can see, the -- our crude has been consistently -- at this point we're consistently above the Brent. And I think for Q4, there, as you can see on the left-hand side, bullet point there, we recorded around $1.1 above Brent and for the full year as well, we ended the year at around $84.3 per barrel for our crude. Next slide, please. And from an OpEx and CapEx perspective, Again, I think what you can see here is just from a Q4 perspective, where we recorded around $52 million, which equates to around $29.4 per barrel. That came down as -- came at around 14% lower than I think initially, the expectation is that Q4 will be higher than Q3, but I think with optimizations and kind of like careful planning, we managed to reduce that cost, which led ultimately to the pro forma basis, which you can see on the right-hand side there coming at around 23%. So the pro forma, just for the benefit of everyone, this is effectively from the first of Jan 2023 until December '23, whereas what we book in our balance sheet -- sorry, in our P&L, is the $165 million that you see in front of you. And from a CapEx perspective, again, similar story. Q4 came lower than Q3 and again, the pro forma kept quite substantially lower than the guidance. And I think Sean has highlighted the reason for that. And from a P&L perspective for this year for the financial year '23, we recorded $144 million. And if we add the $5 million that we paid for the acquisition of the MOPU which is the contingent deferred payment there, we end up with total CapEx -- adjusted CapEx of around $108 million for this -- for the year. Next slide, please, Robin. Which leads us to the financial metrics. For Q4, as you can see, we have recorded a pretax cash flow from operation, just shy of $90 million, and that leads to around cash flow from operation of $56 million. That's quite substantially hard to what we recorded in Q3. Looking on a full year basis, we've recorded a revenue of just shy of $500 million leading to a pretax cash flow from operations. So this is the cash flow before the payment for the PITA and SRB of just shy of $240 million. And with taking away the tax in SRB, we end up with the cash flow from operation of around $152 million. Again substantiate what Sean and what the team have been saying all along, these are very highly cash-generative assets. Next slide, please, Robin. And looking at the cash bridge from the last date of the balance sheet in Q3, you can see we have adding CapEx to the cash flow from the operation and some interest income we received from our balance -- from our cash in our balance sheet. Taking away the debt repayment that we've -- to pay for the last trench, so the $12.5 million there. And Delta Working Capital, we end up with a cash balance of $150 million to $151 million. Again, emphasizing the strength of the balance sheet when it comes to the cash positions. We are today cash -- debt-free cash company. Let me stay next slide, please, Robin. And then maybe, look, you don't often see balance sheets being trading these top of presentations. But I think pictorially, it's -- we thought this might be helpful in terms of telling the story, looking at it from a balance sheet perspective -- from looking it from a financial and balance sheet perspective. What we -- what you have in front of you is effectively a comparison of what our balance sheet looks like, Valeura looks like at the year-end last year compared to this year compared to '23. And you can see from --, in terms of asset, the business has been -- be it from an asset perspective on shareholder equity, there is almost like a ten-fold jump in terms of these 2 metrics, which again highlight how transformational those transactions were. And most important, equally to a certain extent, what have been done during this period to get to these numbers. And maybe if I could just draw your attention to the bottom graph there, which highlights just in Q3 versus Q4. And again, this is -- we think this kind of gives us a good story in terms of what has happened in the year and how this -- how all the work that the team have done from a technical perspective kind of impact the balance sheet. And specifically, when it comes to, for example, reserve replacement, and how upgrading reserves for a company like an E&P company can have a substantial impact on its balance sheet and its financial position as a whole. So if you can see from the right-hand side, 2 bars there, where we have effectively what the equity value as shareholders' equity value has increased from $225 million to $284 million. But maybe highlighting as well what happened to the ARO, which Sean has mentioned before. Again, it's that ability -- and you often see that in E&P companies, your ability to extend the field life pushing back those decommissioning and at the same time, trying to try to also -- from a real term or a nominal term, try to reduce it by doing the work cleverly can into substantial deleveraging of the balance sheet. And as Sean mentioned, there have been a 30% -- around 30% reduction compared to what we did -- compare to the balance sheet at the time of the acquisitions. But if you look at how that comparison between the last balance sheet to today's balance sheet, you can see that the numbers are quite even bigger. So we -- so our ARO have moved away from close to $200 million now to around $129 million. And again, worth highlighting that as of Q4, we have -- in our asset we do have around $151 million of cash sitting there. I think the message on this slide is that not only has operationally we've delivered in terms of trying to optimize the business and trying to extract more from the business by spending less. But most importantly, it's also trying to set the balance sheet, to trying to business set the business into the right thinking to give us that flexibility and that resilience going in the future, especially when we look at organic growth, inorganic growth and further beyond that. And I think with that I'll hand back to Sean.
Yes, next slide, please, Robin. So look, as Yacine said, operationally, financially, organizationally, 2023 was a great year. But we'll just take a couple of slides now just to point to 2024, and we see that going. From a guidance point of view, as we noted, midrange as of the production guidance there 23,000 barrels a day, range of [ 21,500 ] to [ 24,500 ]. And we already have a lot of that production in. We still have further projects to go. But of course, those are -- you'll be offset slightly by declines in some of the other fields. OpEx-wise. We're decreasing the unit OpEx down to about 26 barrels a day as a target. But when you look at CapEx, the CapEx, we've also brought that down from where we've seen it previously. And I'll just make a note that this actually includes a power generation project we're putting on the Jasmine platform totaled about $7 million for this year, which will reduce the emissions but also lower the OpEx for that. So next slide. So looking at Wassana. Now we've talked about this a couple of times. The operations we had through most of Q1, the drill rig was on Wassana, did 5 horizontal wells and 2 workovers. That work is now all complete and the rig has left site. And we've had production in the first half of March was about 5,000 barrels a day. But importantly, as we look ahead, it's that idea that we want to look at the redevelopment concept we're going to put in here, and we've planned for a concept select on that sometime in the next month. And then that will then lead through the tendering process, all the detailed design for targeting FID late in the year. That has potential to add actually further reserves above what we were able to book last year and extend the field life well into the 2030s. But again, we've got to go through that final concept select. Next slide. Nong Yao C. Again, this work was started last year. The pipeline was laid last year. And what's at least nice on this slide now is that instead of having a cartoon of what facility we're installing, we actually have an image of the new facility installed on the Nong Yao C location. And since this time, actually, they're installing the conductors, they get ready to commence the drilling on the Nong Yao C facility. And that will be taken starting probably late within the next month and continuing throughout Q2. The other point we'll make is that looking at the next phase of expansion of Nong Yao, which is currently looking at Nong Yao D. Now the drill rig is currently moved on to that location, and we'll be drilling an exploration well there. The idea is really to prove up sufficient oil in that location, so we can already start to do the work on where the next development for the Nong Yao field is going to be at that location. So that's kind of exciting work this year. Next slide. So trying to look at the catalysts we've got. Well, we're getting great prices, and we're seeing that actually currently, we're getting a premium to Brent. As we noted, we're actually looking at increased production in 2024. We're currently doing about 23,000 barrels a day on the -- largely on the back of Wassana coming online, doing about 5,000 barrels a day. And then as we've said, bringing Nong Yao C on midyear, which can go from 7,000 to 11,000 barrels a day. We do plan further work on Manora and Jasmine later in the year with the rig to put some new wells in there. Key point, as we've said, redevelopment decision on Wassana but then we are drilling a few exploration wells this year. On the firm plan is Nong Yao D, which we're currently on site Ratree near Jasmine will be drilled later this year when we go up to do work on Jasmine. And there's potential for also putting in a Wassana North well depending on the rig sequencing. And then the other point, as Yacine was talking about on the balance sheet. Well, we obviously see further strengthening there with cash generation, but also as we look to optimize and reduce the decommissioning obligations further. I'll also note there that we are still working on the corporate restructuring, and we still have expectations that, that will occur before midyear this year. And then finally, we still have M&A potential that we are looking at. So next slide. So I kind of started with this slide, and I'll kind of bring it back to the slide at the end. We're -- honestly, we still see that there's more potential in the share price given where we're sitting today, looking at our cash, looking at our reserves value, looking at the targeted free cash flow for the year. We are well below our peers, and we still see future there. However, the other point I kind of note is that the share price is continuing to rise. And your executive is just going to keep focusing on maintaining the business, delivering on the business, delivering on what we've told you we're going to do. And I expect that we're going to still see that share price keep rising. Another point I'll just note on this slide is that another transformation of the company is in our shareholder base. We are seeing new entries coming in and taking a significant position and, in fact, historic strong supporters of the company increasing their position recently. Now given our very high liquidity, all of these acquisitions were done on the open market. So in conclusion, you've seen and I have talked a lot today about 2023 in the transformation of the company over the past 2 years. However, we don't need to talk about this anymore. This is about looking forward at the production and the cash flow we intend to deliver in '24 in the coming years. This is about the significant catalyst that the company has in our immediate future. This is about the focus on profitability enhancement that we're going to continue to drive from the Valeura team in Bangkok. And it is about the next step forward in growth and building on this foundation that we've created now. 2023 is great, but we see another exciting year ahead, and thank you for joining us on this journey. Thank you.
As I mentioned at the beginning, we're able to take any questions that you might have, which you can either submit by e-mail using ir@valeuraenergy.com. In fact, you can use that e-mail address any time to reach us. [Operator Instructions] So a few questions, production related. Number one, we've got several people watching production figures that are published by the DMF where they're posted on a monthly basis. and very specific question on Jasmine, why was Jasmine production so low in February 2024?
Yes, it's actually a good question. And you'll also note that Manora will be low -- we expect it to be low in March. So these were just planned shutdowns that we've had on the facility. So the team knows you have to do this every so often where you go in, you shut down and you do a full suite of maintenance at that time, but it requires that shutdown. So with Jasmine, they had to shut down the facility and that obviously then dropped your production during that period. The good news is for Jasmine, that was done actually faster than expected. So they didn't need the full time that they expected to need to be off. And on -- sorry, on Manora, we were also shut down there in March, but the field's back up and producing already.
Okay. Great. Another couple of questions on production here. And I'm going to lump a couple of them together because there are similar ones here. But first of all, where do you see 2024 exit rate production? And second part of that what's the sort of overall vision for production over the next few years? Is it above 25,000? Is it sort of between now and between where we are now and 25,000? Or what's the sort of general overview?
Yes. I think what we can say is like look at -- everyone would look and say, well, jeez, you were at just over 20,000 last year. Already in Q1, you're at 23,000, you should be in to get over 25,000. And we do expect that we can get over 25,000 about midyear when we bring on Nong Yao C, right? And that thing jumps up to that level. But you still have the natural declines that will come in. It will matter the amount of work we get done with the drill rig later in Jasime, and at Manora to try and work on the decline of those fields and natural declines. So the guidance of saying that REIT for the year we'd average about 23,000 as a target. We still feel that that's quite valid and the exit number could be near that sort of number for there. Now when we look ahead for the next few years, what we've tried to say even back a year ago was -- our target is to keep these fields producing between 20,000 to 25,000 barrels a day out for the next 3, 4 years or more, right? So no, we don't see that we're going to want to drive this thing right up to a high number from this asset base. But it's more about maintaining them because you are dealing with the declines taking place on Jasmine and Manora and offsetting those was growth in Wassana and at Nong Yao.
Maybe just switching gears a little bit. On reserves. Question is, can reserves be extended further in 2024 and 2025?
Look, it's a great question. And we've always showed the slide, right, back that every year, the company even before we've taken on these as generally replace their reserves. Now that we're starting to focus a little more on growth, you can see that we're adding reserves. We're going out there to drill this year 2 to 3 [ true ] exploration wells which could actually then form new developments or new expansions of Nong Yao. These things have the potential to then obviously be future growth. And that's obviously the target that we're looking to have here is that, no these reserves are not coming off in the next couple of years. We're looking to maintain them.
And possibly a related question on that. Can you tell us a little bit more about the exploration targets that you're drilling this year? How big and what sort of risk are we looking at?
Yes. So Nong Yao D, we would say from an exploration world is relatively low risk, you are drilling in an untested area, but all the indications and the way that the team after decade, 15 years of working these 3D data, understand the seismic and the response of the reservoirs, the response of oil. We see it as a relatively low risk, but it's a type of field that likely can get enough oil in that location on success that it could justify a new facility in that area, whereas Ratree is different. Ratree is one that has more risk to it because it really is an undrilled of the block. But if it's successful, it will be a whole new development. We expect it to be over 20 million barrels if successful.
Okay. Bunch of questions on the tax consolidation. And I think you mentioned this already in your prepared remarks, Sean, but I'll ask it anyway just because so many people have asked the question. Can you give an update on the progress toward tax consolidation? And 1 person as noted here, we do mention in our disclosures that we've completed the process to merge the businesses together. Does that imply that we're now able to use the tax losses? Or is that something else?
No, sorry, this is Yacine. These are 2 different aspects, to be honest. And I think we've mentioned this before. So mechanically, effectively, the organization is really housed under one roof, so to speak. And I think this is what Sean was referring to, when you said the organization are put together. From a tax consolidation perspective, what I can say here, as Sean said, expect we still think the expectation that by midyear, this will occur. What I can add maybe to that is that we are effectively at the last gate. So subject to that, so far, all the signals appear to be positive. We seem to have support from different -- from the key stakeholders when it comes to this matter. But again, there is still 1 last gate that we have to go through, but so far, nothing is stopping us from believing that this will not occur.
Okay. Very good. And while we've got you on the line, you've seen a couple of questions on the change in the decommissioning obligations. What are the drivers behind us? Is it reduction in cost estimates? Or is it predominantly the NPV effect?
I think it's a combination of the 2. We've seen an actual reduction in cost compared to what we had before. And it's also -- but I think at this point in time -- Sean did say that like in 2024, our aim is really to try to focus on those decommissioning to try to see how much absolute reduction can we get, i.e., from a real perspective or a nominal perspective, I can reduce them. But the bulk of the changes that you see today is really just sort of -- it's predominantly driven by that ability to delay the decommissioning back. So discounting the back today, you get that impact.
Maybe just an additional make on that. You've heard us talk on this before. You might have heard some of these details, but there is a significant amount of abandonment going on in the Gulf of Thailand now. A couple of years ago, Chevron abandoned 1,500 wells in 1 year. All of that data can be accessed through working with the contractors and the service companies to really benchmark what have been our engineering estimates that were done prior to that work to then see, okay, we see savings there. We also know from talking to contractors that I think Chevron will be abandoning approximately 40 platforms between last year and this year. So you're monitoring that work and understanding what is really the cost of that work that's ongoing. So what we're seeing is not just having to do up engineering estimates in the blind, but you now have a full data suite to work from.
Just a couple more questions, and I'll let you save your voices. Shareholder returns. Any change in thinking on the company's strategy to do direct shareholder returns by way of a buyback or dividend? Or does the strategy remain the same?
Look, the strategy remains the same. Obviously, as we've always said, we're focused on growth. And there are some interesting things and exciting things that are ongoing this year. We'll just see where we get to on those. However we'll continue to monitor the cash build. We are sensitive to comments from shareholders on this matter, and we continue to have discussions with the Board on this matter at each one of our quarterly meetings.
Okay. And maybe 1 last question. Nong Yao D drilling. How long do you expect this to take? And should the market expect to hear results when we're finished that well? Or is that something that we keep tight until a development is defined?
No, I would expect that we would actually give results of that well as an exploration well. We have tried to -- with -- as we said, with drilling campaigns, we tend to release drilling campaigns. And in that view, I would kind of view an exploration well as a drilling campaign. The well on timing. Look, at these wells go fairly quickly. We would expect it to be done within a couple of weeks. However, if successful, then we would expect the rig to kind of stay there and probably drill a number of side tracks because really what you want to do is when you have success there is have the rigs stay there long enough to prove up sufficient oil that there's a development at that point. Rather than having to take the rig away, come back in, do geotechnical surveys, drill a new location. Once a rig set up, it's very cheap to do that. Those side tracks and that appraisal work.
Maybe just 1 last question that's coming in. Any interest in new Thai licenses or new licenses elsewhere in the region?
Yes. Look, obviously, we've had a strategy which is very much focused on producing assets. we would look at development assets as well. And in Thailand, though, we would also look at exploration where we see good synergies to our facilities and where we're currently operating. We do know that we expect the Thai government to really come out with some licenses in the near future. We're monitoring those closely and in discussions with them, and I expect our team will do some work on those. Straight exploration in other areas of Asia, don't see us doing that. No. But we will -- we are continuing to look for assets that come with cash flow.
Very good. Okay. That's it for questions for the moment. I'll remind everyone listening, if you do have any questions that come up, in the interim, you can reach us at any time. Our contact details are on the website. best way to be in touch is using that e-mail address ir@valeuraenergy.com. But as for today, that's all we've got. So I'll hand it over to you just to finish up the call, Sean.
Yes. No, I just wanted to say, again, thank you very much everyone for joining. We look forward to this year. We have a lot of catalysts coming and expect a lot of excitement. Thank you very much.