Bayerische Motoren Werke AG
XETRA:BMW
Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2023 Analysis
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG
BMW Group has presented a robust performance for the third quarter, underlined by a strong sales growth that translated to satisfactory financial figures. The EBIT margin impressively stood at 10.6% for the quarter, which when stretched to cover the January to September period, expanded further to 11.9%. This comfortably surpasses the internal strategic goal of 10%. Such results are underpinned by a combination of increased vehicle deliveries, amounting to around 622,000 for the quarter—an upswing of 5.8% compared to the previous year—and the exciting prospects from launching new models, such as the BMW 5 Series.
Capturing the financial health of the company, group earnings before tax mirrored the previous year's third-quarter results at nearly EUR 4.1 billion, despite facing headwinds like the volatile fair value assessment of interest rate hedging. When evaluating the performance for the first nine months, without the incidental income from the previous year's equity interest revaluation, the underlying operating earnings increased by EUR 900 million year-over-year.
The company's revenue resilience is demonstrated by the steady third-quarter Automotive revenues reaching EUR 32.1 billion, which, withstanding currency translation adversities, actually marks a real terms growth of 6.5% owing to enhanced sales volume.
Impressively, the Automotive segment's operational results for the quarter amounted to just over EUR 3.1 billion, exhibiting an EBIT margin of 9.8%, which further climbed to 10.3% for the nine-month timeframe. These margins reflect strong cost management despite currency and raw material cost pressures, as well as a buoyant vehicle sales performance that also benefitted from a balanced pricing strategy and model mix.
With a forward-thinking approach, the company has increased its R&D expenses by EUR 100 million, mainly directed toward areas like electrification and digitization, along with creating cutting-edge features such as partial and highly automated driving systems in their new models. Despite the rise, the R&D ratio aligns well within the strategic 4-5% goal.
The Automobile segment generated a substantial free cash flow of EUR 2.6 billion in the third quarter, thanks to fruitful quarterly results and shrewd working capital adjustments. However, these figures are expected to be influenced by heightened capital expenditure towards the year-end, which falls in line with seasonal trends and forthcoming project scale-ups. Nevertheless, BMW anticipates a year-end cash flow that should remain robust at around EUR 6 billion.
The Financial Services segment witnessed a 5.6% decline in new contracts, largely attributed to rising interest rates affecting consumer financing costs. Yet, a recovery in the third quarter suggested a positive trajectory for new business, particularly in retail customer contracts. This momentum, assisted by strong vehicle sales and preowned business, is projected to strive forward in the year's final stretch.
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Colleagues, ladies and gentlemen, good morning, and welcome to the telephone conference of BMW Group for the third quarter. We have here today, as always, Oliver Zipse, Chairman of the Board of Management of BMW AG; and our CFO Walter Mertl. Mr. Zipse and Mr. Mertl will begin by giving you an overview of business development. And after that, you'll be given the opportunity to ask your questions.
I give the floor to Mr. Mertl to begin.
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. BMW Group delivered a strong performance in the third quarter. As expected, we achieved solid sales growth and correspondingly positive financial key figures. The group EBIT margin for the third quarter came in at 10.6%. For a 9-month period from January to September, it was 11.9%, exceeding our strategic target of 10%. The Automotive segment posted an EBIT margin of 9.8% for the third quarter and 10.3% for the year to the end of September. Without depreciation BBA assets on the purchase price allocation, the margins came in at 10.8% for Q3 and 11.4% through 9 months.
After a successful third quarter, we expect a positive business development in the fourth quarter as well. All segments are on track to meet our goals for the year.
I'd now like to share you a few slides with our business figures for the third quarter and the first 9 months in more detail.
Let's start with the group figures. Group earnings before tax for the third quarter were on par with last year at just under EUR 4.1 billion despite a significant headwind from the fair value assessment of interest rate hedging compared to Q3 2022. Group pretax earnings for the year to the end of September decreased by about EUR 6.8 billion. However, last year's figure included onetime income of EUR 7.7 million from the revaluation of the equity interest in BBA. Without this effect and looking at the underlying operating results instead, group earnings were EUR 900 million higher year-on-year in the first 9 months.
Now let's take a look at the individual segments, starting with the Automotive segment. The BMW Group delivered just under 622,000 vehicles to customers in the third quarter of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%. Year-to-date September deliveries rose by 5.1% to around 1.84 million vehicles.
Our order books take us into 2024 with valuable impetus coming from new models like the BMW 5 Series. We expect this positive trend in deliveries to gain momentum in the fourth quarter, resulting in solid growth and big sales for the full year as forecasted in August.
In addition to models from the upper price segment, our all-electric vehicles are another important growth factor. We sold around 94,000 units in the third quarter and just under 247 million fully electric figures for the 9-month period.
BEV share of total sales continues to grow. In the third quarter, it was 5.1%. In the fourth quarter, our sales of all-electric vehicles will get a further boost from the launch of the new BMW i5. For the full year, we expect BEV to account for about 15% of deliveries. After 9 months, the share was already at 13.4%.
Third quarter Automotive revenues were at the same level as the prior year at EUR 32.1 billion. However, currency translation headwinds from the U.S. dollar and the Chinese renminbi played a part in this. Adjusted for these currency effects, revenues increased by 6.5%, thanks to higher sales.
The Automotive segment's operating results for the third quarter totaled just over EUR 3.1 billion with an EBIT margin of 9.8%. Year-to-date September, the EBIT margin came in at 10.3%.
Let's take a look at the operating results in the Automotive segment in more detail. In the year-on-year comparison, we see that Q3 2023 was impacted by just under EUR 200 million from the net balance of currency and raw material positions. This difference is mainly due to currency translation effects from the development of the Chinese renminbi. Raw material prices remained high, although we are seeing a slight tailwind compared to the third quarter of 2022.
However, this does not include material and logistics costs. Volume model mix and pricing effects all contributed to a tailwind of around EUR 300 million compared to the prior year quarter. The largest share of disposition results from higher vehicle sales. The contribution from the model mix is only slightly lower than the previous year despite the BEV growth.
The market has continued to normalize over the course of the third quarter, partly due to improved vehicle availability. We continue to pay close attention to price discipline.
Expenses for research and development rose by around EUR 100 million. This reflects the decrease in the capitalization rate of 8.5 percentage points to 32.2% year-on-year. Based on group R&D spending, the R&D ratio according to the German Commercial code came in at 4.6%. We expect the figure for the full year to be within our long-term target range of 4% to 5%.
Research and development expenditure focused on the electrification and digitization of our vehicle fleet as well as the development of new models like the all-new BMW 5 Series and the Neue Klasse. Digitalization includes the innovative BMW operating system mine, which we're rolling out this year.
We're also making great progress in the area of automated driving with Level2 +, the new BMW 5 already offers a partially automated driving experience. We will also be launching highly automated driving Level 3 shortly.
Sales and administrative costs increased by about EUR 100 million, partly due to higher spending for digitalization projects. Other cost changes include costs for materials and logistics. They remain at a high level due to, among other factors, high labor costs from our partners. Although they were more or less stable in the quarter compared to the previous year, we recorded a notable negative impact in the 9-month period.
Free cash flow in the Automotive segment totaled EUR 2.6 billion in the third quarter. The basis for this high figure is the strong quarterly result of EUR 3 billion. The change in working capital increased free cash flow in this quarter by around EUR 100 million.
In the third quarter, inventory levels rose. However, the increase in trade payables nearly offset the impact of the higher inventory on working capital.
The delta between capital expenditure and depreciation reduced the free cash flow in the third quarter by about EUR 500 million.
Capital expenditure for the first 9 months totaled around EUR 5 billion, coming mainly from the fifth and sixth generation e-modular kits and the construction of the plant in Debrecen in Hungary. The CapEx ratio for the year to the end of September was 4.5%. We still expect the ratio for the full year to be around 6%.
Changes in provisions had a negative impact on free cash flow of about EUR 400 million. In the third quarter, the profit sharing bonus for financial year 2022 was paid out to our employees and corresponding provisions were dissolved.
Other items boosted free cash flow by around EUR 400 million.
At the end of September, free cash flow in the Automotive segment stood at around EUR 5.8 billion.
In the fourth quarter, we're planning for a significant increase in capital expenditure due to usual seasonality. This will negatively impact free cash flow. Such as mentioned, we expect the CapEx ratio for the full year to be around 6%. Inventory will decrease towards the end of the year, but will still be at a high enough level to maintain vehicle supplies to the markets. This will ensure that we're able to meet the robust global demand for our vehicles in the first quarter of 2024. The planned significant uptick in costs as well as higher tax payments will weigh on our free cash flow in the fourth quarter. As a result, we still expect a free cash flow of at least EUR 6 billion for the full year 2023.
Let's now turn to the Financial Services segment. I will focus on the first 9 months of this portfolio of business. Year-to-date September, the number of new financing and leasing contracts concluded with retail customers decreased by 5.6%. This is partly due to higher interest rates, which have substantially increased financing costs for consumers. At the same time, the financial services sector remains as competitive as ever.
However, when we look at the course of the year, we see a clear positive trend in new business and financial services. While new contracts with end customers in the first quarter were just under 20% below the first quarter of 2022, they were back to the previous year's level in the second quarter. Driven by higher vehicle sales and by the preowned car business, Financial Services reversed the trend in the third quarter. New contracts with end customers rose by 5.7% compared to the third quarter of 2022. We expect the positive development in new business to continue in the fourth quarter as well.
The average financing volume per vehicle increased from the previous year, primarily due to an improved product mix in the Automotive business. For this reason, the volume of new business decreased by only 1.6% for the year to the end of September.
Segment earnings before tax totaled EUR 2.45 billion at the end of September, which is down 8.3% from the previous year. This decrease mainly reflects higher refinancing costs and the smaller size of the total portfolio.
Income from the resale of end-of-lease vehicles remains consistently high. The credit loss ratio is still at the low rate of 0.15% across the entire credit portfolio, which continues to be at a very low level.
We expect return on equity for the full year to be within the range of 16% to 19%.
Let's move on to the Motorcycles segment. In the third quarter, BMW Motorrad sales were on par with the high level of Q3 2022 at just over 52,000 units. Segment EBIT totaled minus EUR 4 million compared to EUR 87 million in the third quarter of 2022. This decrease was primarily due to changes to the model launch compared to the previous year.
The EBIT for the year to the end of September totaled EUR 308 million and was, therefore, slightly lower than the previous years. The EBIT margin came in at minus 0.6% for the third quarter and 12% for the first 9 months.
I'd now like to look at the outlook for our key performance indicators. We expect to see stable business development for the rest of the year and are, therefore, able to confirm our guidance for financial year 2023 for all segments. This assumes that the geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions do not deteriorate significantly.
In the Automotive segment, we're planning for a solid increase in deliveries compared to last year. The segment's EBIT margin should come in at between 9% and 10.5% with a return on capital employed of between 18% and 22%.
The Motorcycles segment is projected to report higher sales. In this segment, we expect to see an EBIT margin of between 8% and 10% and the return on capital employed of between 21% and 26%.
In the Financial Services segment, return on equity should be between 16% and 19% for the full year.
Ladies and gentlemen, our third quarter results once again underline the BMW Group's performance capabilities. On this basis, we will be able to deliver a strong finish to 2023. With our attractive premium product portfolio, we're in an excellent position across all brands, segments and drive technologies to take advantage of market opportunities.
We remain cautiously optimistic about the future despite all the economic and geopolitical volatility. We have a long-term strategy and we have a clear plan. Our earning power is the result of continuous profitable growth in our core business as well as disciplined price and cost management. It lays the foundation for our business success and allows us to leverage our cash flow to finance our investments in emission pre-mobility.
At BMW Group, our thinking and actions are always geared towards the long term. We are securing and creating value. And our financial strength allows us to shape our own future. Thank you.
Thank you, Walter Mertl. Now over to the Chairman of the Board, Oliver Zipse.
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome. Before I talk about current developments and events, I'd like to say a few words about the change in the Board's management of BMW AG. As you all know, the Supervisory Board appointed Jochen Goller, for the Board of Management effective 1st of November after various roles in China and the U.K. as well as serving as Head of the MINI brand. Jochen Goller has managed our activities in China very successfully since 2018. Sean Green, who is previously Senior Vice President, Sales and Marketing at our BBA joint venture, will be responsible for our business in China going forward. Jochen Goller takes over from Pieter Nota, who led our Customer, Brands and Sales division from 2019.
Under Pieter Nota leadership, BMW grew its global market share significantly. During this time, the BMW brand also regained its position at the top of the premium segment and steadily expanded it.
And I would like to extend my sincere thanks to Pieter Nota and wish Jochen Gollerall the best as he embarks on his new role.
I'll just got back from Asia about a week ago. The visit to Beijing and the Japan Mobility Show in Tokyo once again showed there is not one-size-fits all solution for mobility of today. Our world is multifaceted, and that's why we need different technological solutions. On the one hand, to meet our customers' wide ranging needs; on the other, to comply with very different regulatory requirements in the countries around the world.
China, for example, mainly realized on pure electric vehicles, although plug-in hybrids and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles also have a part to play in decarbonizing mobility. In Beijing, for example, a large number of taxis went already on hydrogen.
In the third quarter of this year, we grew our business worldwide, thanks to our wide range of premium vehicles across all the drive technologies. Pure electric vehicles stood out in China, in particular. We more than tripled our sales there in the first 9 months compared to the same period of last year.
In Japan, the current demand for all-electric cars is still relatively subdued. The focus is more on plug-in hybrids and cars with combustion engines. However, it became clear at the Japan Mobility Show that Japanese manufacturers, in particular, are starting to step things up with electric options. Japan recognized the importance of hydrogen early on. This is why our BMW iX5 hydrogen has been well received there. With this fleet, we are making hydrogen technology and experience. For a global premium manufacturer, like the BMW Group technology openers remains the right path for decarbonizing mobility.
Our healthy sales and financial figures are proof of this. We will continue to pursue this path consistently in the future. In October, we presented the BMW X2 with the all-electric iX2 as the latest example of this. The iX2 is more than anything a digital champion. The new BMW operating system line introduces the ideal platform for a comprehensive range of different features and functions, such as particularly new gaming and streaming capabilities.
It's features like these, such as optimized touch controls or seamlessly integrated voice control, that allow our customers to enjoy a unique digital experience in their car.
Starting next year, our rollout of new all-electric products will continue. In the spring, the new BMW 5 Series with the celebrator its world premiere. It will be available with the same drivetrain portfolio as the sedan, including the all-electric i5 Touring. This gives us a real USP in a segment that is very popular, especially in Europe.
Our goal remains the same. More than half our global sales from all-electric cars well before 2030. To this end, we're also further expanding our leading role in battery cell technology at our competence center in Munich with technological foundations for the efficient and resource saving production of battery cells.
And we're doing this along the entire value chain. We share the know-how we developed there with our suppliers. In this way, we're setting benchmarks in production, quality, performance, cost, and of course, the ecology. Last week, we put the competence center in Parsdorf into operation. Sample production of sixth-generation round sales have begun.
These cells are characterized by an up to 20% higher energy density. In addition, we were able to reduce the CO2 footprint in cell production by up to 60%. Our customers will benefit from up to 30% faster charging speed and up to 30% higher range according to WLTP and all this at reduced cost.
In line with our local-for-local principle, the BMW Group often ensures that the next step, high-voltage battery assembly takes paces costs possible for the vehicle plans. This approach secures our production even in the event of unforeseen political and economic developments. Short transport distances also reduced the carbon footprint of vehicle production.
Production facilities for the sixth generation of BMW high-voltage batteries are currently being built at all major manufacturing locations. In Debrescen, Hungary; in Woodruff, South Carolina in the U.S.; in San Luis Potosi, Mexico; and in Shenyang, China. And of course, also here in Bavaria, we are planning a further assembly site for high-voltage battery [ Straßkirchen ] to supply our vehicle production. A clear majority voted to allow the planning process in Lower Bavaria to continue in a recent referendum. This not only secures the future of our Bavarian vehicle plant, but it also sends an important signal, underlying Germany's future viability as a location for industry.
We hope to start construction within the year. These high-voltage batteries will then be used in our Neue Klasse, which will also be produced at our main plant in Munich from 2026 onwards.
We provided a glimpse of the Neue Klasse at the IAA Mobility in early September in Munich. The BMW Vision Neue Klasse shows how we're designing individual mobility to be more human, more intelligent and more responsible. For example, the materials that we're developing for Neue Klasse will help to reduce its carbon footprint.
A highlight is the new BMW Panoramic Vision display, which uses the entire width of windscreen and is visible to all passengers.
What has always set BMW part is the perfect interaction of all components and the unmistakable brand-authentic driving dynamics that this enables. We are also taking this unique selling point to a whole new level, thanks to perfect combination of hardware and software. The Neue Klasse is more than just another BMW brand car. It is a whole new generation of products. We will be releasing 6 models onto the road within 24 months from SAVs to sedans. What all models have in common is the all-electric that powers them.
MINI will also be all electric in the future, which we now in 2030 we will be completely realigning MINI and making the brand all electric. We presented 2 key members of the new MINI family at the IAA Mobility, the MINI Coupe 3-door and the MINI Countryman. And the next fully electric MINI is ready to go. In April 2024, the MINI Aceman will make its world premier as a crossover in the premium compact car segment and new MINI families produced by our Chinese joint venture partner in China and in our plants in Leipzig and Oxford.
Our second British brand is also on a threshold of pure electromobility. By early 2030 -- or the early 2030s, Rolls-Royce will also be exclusively or electric preparations for the sales launch of the first electric Rolls-Royce are currently in full swing. The Spectre which is scheduled for release by the end of the year is set to redefine modern luxury.
There's also been a change at the top of Rolls-Royce. Torsten Müller-Ötvös who has led Rolls-Royce since 2010 and driven the transformation and rejuvenation of this unit mark is retiring. He will be handing over to Chris Brownridge from 1st of December. Chris currently heads the U.K. market, bringing experience, of course, but above all, a feel for the exclusive demands of brand and its customers.
Let's move on to BMW Motorrad. We recently celebrated the brand's centenary at the end of September with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at our plant in Berlin. The brand has performed exceptionally well in recent years. Its centenary celebrations where the combination point of the career of BMW Motorrad's long-standing leader, Markus Schramm, who is also retiring. Under his leadership, BMW Motorrad steadily expanded its product range, opened new markets for the brand and saw numerous record-breaking years. Markus Flasch took over from him 2 days ago on 1st of November. Markus brings experience as Head of BMW M GmbH and Head of the product line for BMW midsized and luxury class and Rolls-Royce.
While we're constantly expanding and refining our product range, our current focus is on further digitalization of the customer interface. Direct customer access plays a key role in this. Our new direct sales model for MINI is about to be launched in Europe. The rollout with MINI in China was already a success. The European rollout will begin at 1st of January with Italy, Poland and Sweden. Other European countries will follow in stages. The BMW launch will then get underway in 2026.
The direct sales model will benefit everyone involved. Our customers are guaranteed full price transparency and can move seamlessly between online and offline consulting options during the purchasing process. At the same time, it offers our retailers an attractive business model as shown by their positive response.
All our European retailers have signed contracts to this effect.
In return, BMW Group gains direct access to customers, which we will use to rate an entirely new customer experience. The best example of this is our new Proactive Care Service offering. It uses data analytics and AI to evaluate data from the people and detect potential problems before they even occur. If the cause can't be fixed using software, this is done remotely. In all other cases, our customers receive a notification for example, a tip for how to handle the issue themselves, or if necessary, alert they're asking them to contact a BMW dealer. If the customer agrees an appointment can easily be set up using the automated system.
Ladies and gentlemen, in 2023, we're once again demonstrating the success of the BMW Group's strategic approach. With our products, range of drive technologies and production sites worldwide, our position is highly diversified. A recent study also confirms this. U.S. TIME magazine and the database, Statista, named the world's top 750 companies. The BMW Group ranked in the top 10 and was the highest-rated automotive manufacturer worldwide.
The mood is also very positive inside the company as this year's employee survey just completed confirmed. We are just under 150,000 employees to tell us what they think and their responses showed that the BMW Group is a highly attractive employer. The workforce backs the company's goals, and our employees worldwide are proud to work for the BMW Group. That is the best foundation for continuing on our successful course in the future. Thank you.
This was the Chairman of the Board, Oliver Zipse. Colleagues. We will now turn to taking your questions. I'd like to ask for the technical information for the conference. Thank you.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Christina Amann from Thomson Reuters.
I hope you can hear me.
Yes, we can hear you very well.
Fantastic. Trying using a different technology than last time. So my first question relates to your statement on the order book, Mr. Mertl, you said the order book will take you well into 2024. Can you further specify this? Are you talking about the first quarter? Or will it last longer?
Second question relates to the prices. In some markets, prices for new and used cars are under pressure, different topics. So how do you assess the outlook for price development of new cars and what about preowned cars and what effect will that have on financial results?
And the third question relates to the supply situation. In the past years, we've learned that there's a scarcity of raw materials or parts can't be obtained. China graphite might be subject to requiring approval. So what is situation at BMW as far as this is concerned? Will there be any bottleneck?
Thank you, Ms. Amann. We've understood all of your questions. I pass the floor to Walter Mertl.
You had a question about the order book. Well, yes, it will last us depending on the model, of course, on average, well into the first quarter. We're quite confident as we already had a pretty good reach in August, and this situation continues.
There are some models that will take us a little longer, but actually we don't specifically talk about that. Now as far as the prices is concerned, pre-owned cars, new cars, you specifically mentioned the pre-owned cars of the Financial Services off lease business. Here, we see a normalization. That's what we're talking about. However, as we've already said in August, fortunately, the decrease is not as strong as we anticipated in March. Here, we see a continuing positive contribution at financial services in the automotive segment.
And concerning the supply situation, I'd like to here distinguish between the logistics situation and the material situation, material supplies. Here are still pretty good. Of course, there are some challenges here and there that our organization handles pretty well.
In logistics, especially with the German railway system, due to the structuring, we have some challenges and difficulties actually organizing our cars in due time. But we've got very good partners we're working with and doing this. So I'm quite confident that in the fourth quarter, everything will go well.
Next question comes from Markus Fasse from Handelsblatt.
I have 2 questions, one to Mr. Mertl and one Mr. Zipse. Let me begin with the question to Mr. Mertl, you spoke about negative impacts based on fair value assessments. Can you tell us how exactly this came about? And whether this is something that will continue because the interest rate level remains high. Did you misspeculate or what's the reason for these burdens?
And the second question is to Mr. Zipse, Mr. Zipse, you were in Asia. You emphasized hydrogen. Now we've read that Toyota was quite disappointed about the sale of the Mirai was 22,000 cars in 5 years. I think you now is the last to offer fuel cell in series in a car, but you're still quite optimistic about this technology. Can you explain why you're that optimistic and whether you'd still want to go into large sales production when it comes to the fuel cell.
Thank you, Mr. Fasse. We'll begin with Walter Mertl.
Yes, happy to start with the fair value assessment. Interest rates in '22 increased and our hedges are, of course, not affected by that. That goes by the ROCI. However, we've also got single derivatives, and there, we valuate the contract against the current interest rate. Last year, when the interest rates rose, we therefore had positive fair value effects. Therefore, last year, positive contributions to the financial results. This year, in 2023, interest rates are neutral or partly even declining. And accordingly, the positive income from 2022 will be resolved again, and this is why we're talking about stand-alone derivatives or internal loans, which act between the segments.
Thank you, Walter. Now Oliver Zipse.
Well, good morning, Mr. Fasse. Our trip to Asia actually reinforce us in considering hydrogen as the missing fifth element in our drive technology strategy. This comes firstly from the feedback as far as the X5 hydrogen is concerned, which is very positive in eCar based on the architecture of our e-modular kit. Our motto has always been that there will have to be a drive form that is emission-free when there's no charging infrastructure. And if you observe the world, the south of Europe or Japan, which is densely populated, so that in all of the talks we have there it is most likely that charging infrastructure that covers everything can be set up there.
Still there's an obligation to rise emission-free. The only difference, and that's perhaps not that visible, large investments into hydrogen are not coming from the automobile industry. It's in other industries doing that, ships, airplanes, steel. If you check in IRA in China and the hydrogen infrastructure that's being built at the moment, that's enormous. That's why we believe that the missing part of the puzzle can actually attach yourself there exactly for the situation where there's no charging infrastructure or where there can't be such an infrastructure. And actually, our trip reinforced us to continue along that path.
The next question comes from Leonard Banka from Automobile.
I have a similar question to the one that Markus Fasse asked Mr. Zipse, does that mean that in the future, you have to do more of that yourself if by the end of the decade, you actually want to develop a hydrogen car? It is -- it will be a partnership with Toyota. With that end, now that Toyota focuses more on commercial vehicles or will you continue in the same line?
Well, we'll have to go and see. I mean, you know that we had a 10 years cooperation with Toyota for the cell itself. And of course, we're talking about how we can do this together. But well, we report about it when the time comes. Toyota has been and is a very strong partner for the further development of this technology and nothing has changed about this.
Next question comes from Wilfried Eckl-Dorna from Bloomberg News.
Okay. I have the mic on now. I have I'd like to know, Mr. Zipse, after the Q3 figures, you did give us an outlook as to what you expect for '24, '25 and talk about the pricing of electric cars. Perhaps due to major competitors, they're already complaining in China about a drop in prices. Is that something you feel as well? Or has the situation even deteriorated? Or are you also expecting that the combustion cars in China.
Well, it was very difficult to understand you Mr. Eckl-Dorna . Let me summarize. Your first question was the outlook for '24. And the second question was about a price war, the situation of BEVs and the market situation that has deteriorated. Is that correct?
Yes, above all in China.
Yes. Okay. Let's start with the outlook for 2024. Mr. Mertl would take over, and after that, Mr. Zipse.
Right. Outlook, 2024. As such, of course, we will not comment on that before March when we issue our guidance. However, we are well on track as far as new orders and the order book are concerned. More about that in March.
Okay. Well, Mr. Eckl-Dorna, about China. Well, we can state that in the first 9 months 2023, we delivered more than 600,000 vehicles of BMW MINI in China. That's plus 1.7%. That's in the first 9 months. So there's even a slight growth, especially the fully electric vehicles, as I mentioned early. And they increased in China with almost 70,000 vehicles in the first 9 months. So that the volume has almost struggled for BMW to be precisely plus 232%.
Now more specifically, and you can understand that as an outlook, of course, there's a certain volatility in the market. Anybody can see that. But -- and that's something you also need to see. This mostly concerns the mass markets. Vehicles below RMB 200,000 where we don't even have an offering, BMW Group is basically observing the market all the time and also is checking its prices on a regular basis using established methods and processes, and we react accordingly.
But at the same time, we also trust in the activity of our product. In the entire composition which we build vehicles and the diversity of our offerings, there is not that much comparable out there, and we're actually relying on that. And especially in China, we're running on a very strong brand of BMW and particularly just beginning with its expanded offering with the local production.
So you can see we're not nervous. We're observing the market closely. And there's quite a bit of confidence that we have a strong product offering, which will take us way into the year 2024.
Thank you. Will Boston from the Wall Street Journal. William Boston?
Here I am. I have a question. Basically, about the entire market and looking into the future. If we consider what happened with battery and cars in the market and what happened in the past few years, a lot has been done by traditional OEMs. You brought new technology into the market. You sold a lot of vehicles, but there's also Tesla. The Tesla company managed to grow with the market also with just a fewer models. And the sales figures in this year, well, the distance between Tesla and the other OEMs is still enormous. How do you see this for the next few years? Are you assuming that the distance to Tesla that you can close the gap in the premium segment? Or is that not even an issue for you?
My second question, that's based on what you said about hydrogen. To you, what does the future look like? Do you not place that much importance in the next 2 years on battery electric cars as a whole? Are you saying that other drive technologies are more or less of motor for your sales figures? And how about in 5 or 10 years' time, what will the percentages be of the various electric drive types.
Thank you, William. We've understood your question. Oliver Zipse, please.
Thank you for your questions. We understand that they're highly relevant in order to understand this market. Well, I can only speak for being here. Three years ago, we already said that we have a clear plan. Mr. Mertl reemphasized it today, and the plan provides that this year we'll have a 15% BEV share with a growing volume, that is. And if you have a close look at our figures, we're exactly on track. This year, we will arrive at about 15%. Next year, it will be about 20%. In 2025, it will be 25%. 2026, it will be 1/3. And what we've also said and we're right on track with our investments before 2030, half of our global volume will be pure BEVs.
And how the markets then develop in our segment? Well, we'll have to see. At the moment, we are growing faster than everybody else in terms of percentage in our segment as to whether the competitor mentioned by you will still be part of the premium segment because that's the only segment of interest to us. But I'll leave that to your interpretation.
We don't have an interest in reducing the prices just to make market. That's not our strategy. As you see, it's working for us with quite acceptable prices despite we can still grow substantially.
Your question of hydrogen has partly already been answered, maybe as an addition, as far as the development of hydrogen is concerned, were about 10 to 15 years behind the development of battery-driven cars. And we must not understand market development at short notice. We're going into a market segment and that's an advantage, a segment where nobody else is going at the moment. This is an advantage if you have fewer competitors because we're reading the world with our competence in such a way that for fairly large vehicles, it makes a lot of sense to offer a car that is not burdened by a heavy battery, rich in raw materials to offer an alternative.
We see ourselves confirmed in this. It's not an either/or. There will always be both as. So this is not turning away of our battery-driven technology. As I said, this is the fifth technology that we will be offering.
Next question comes from Patricia Nilsson from Financial Times.
Can you hear me now? Can you hear me? It says I'm unmuted now. Can you hear me? Well, I'll try.
If you can. Some of your rivals in recent days were the brutal price wars, especially in electric vehicles. We haven't seen that from your update today. And I'm wondering, are you expecting there to be more pressure on prices in electric vehicles, increasing competition? It would be great to get your views on that.
Hello. Yes, at the end of the day, when enforcing prices, it's all about having attractive products like the ones we're comparing to. And we have very competitive and attractive products. And for this reason, we're in a pretty favorable situation. We are able to enforce our prices. And even the new orders underlying this. This applied in Q3, for example, for fully electric vehicles, we were able to see a very strong increase in new orders. So I can only confirm that we will maintain our price discipline. Thanks, and thanks the question.
Next question is from Markus Klausen, Dow Jones News GmbH.
I have 2 questions if I may, one is similar to what we've just talked about, the price development. Mr. Zipse, if I've understood you correctly, it's highly relevant or has been at least since last week, the statements that you made today saying that the fight for prices in China is second place in segments where BMW is not doing business. That actually reflects what you said in September and the beginning of the year. Conversely, does that mean that BMW is basically not feeling any or only a marginal pressure on the prices and that this hardly has any effect on the discounts you have to give. I guess that conclusion is correct. If not, could you perhaps provide you with more details.
And then a question to Mr. Mertl perhaps. The preowned cars and the price development there, you mentioned it. Can you say something about the residual values and development there? Is the development stable? Or looking to the next few months over the next year, are you expecting any negative impact.
Thank you, Mr. Klausen. We'll start with Mr. Zipse and then Mr. Mertl.
Well, Mr. Klausen, funding prices in the automobile market is always a challenge, and it always has been and it always will be. And we're prepared for it and preparing for it. So it's continuing fight for the best price for the products we're offering. What we're actually seeing is that the price point at the counter, that's only half the story because if you also take into account how about spare parts, supply of spare parts, how long will a car stand still at a dealer that can't be sold and what does replacement mobility cost? Is there an integrated financing offer of the OEM as we have from BMW Bank. What's the quality of the cars? How about the reliability of the cars in operation, and in particular, our strongest brand?
So currently, we can feel that BMW has very strong position on the market that cannot really be put under price pressure because many customers, they all also have an interest in how a spare parts can be obtained or they're interested in good quality, a good leasing offering. And we're not saying that, that makes us independent of the prices in the market, but it does give us a certain strength with the prices that we are agreeing with our retailers, and we can enforce them.
And that's something we trust in. And of course, it's right. We cannot withdraw from the market, and we do make price adjustments wherever as necessary. And it's working pretty well as is reflected by our Q3 results. Walter Mertl.?
Well, as I said earlier, the preowned car situation is pretty stable. The residual values are also stable. It is true that with increased availability of new cars, there is price pressure on preowned cars. However, we cannot really see this in our profit and loss. So core message, residual values are stable. Thank you.
We've now got time for 2 final questions. Victoria Waldersee from Reuters.
Then I have 2 short questions. One about the outlook, your competitors in the past few weeks, they said that given inflation, high interest rates and they said how that could have an effect on the demand. But these words did not appear in your statement, you seem to be more relaxed, more confident. However, Mr. Nidec which recently warned from the viewpoint of production that high energy costs could do damage to Germany as a production side.
You also spoke about high material and logistics costs. Can you explain your outlook for the next quarter a little more in more detail in terms of supply and demand?
And then a question on the strategy in China. You said you're observing the market closely and that you will, of course, react to market conditions, and you just said something about pricing as well. Could you explain in more detail how exactly you're responding to market conditions in China? Will there be price reductions? Or how else would you react?
Thanks, Ms. Waldersee. Both questions will be answered by Mr. Mertl.
Well, what other competitors guess and forecast, I can't comment on that, but I'd like to get back to my own words. Of course, there are challenges in logistics or -- to make sure that material can be obtained, which is much easier now than it was 12 months ago, as we know. We have a full order book. As I also said, it reaches way into 2024. And based on the order book, we know which revenues to expect and which mix is behind it. And we can only speak for ourselves, and we are quite confident.
Now as far as China is concerned, let me reiterate on what Oliver Zipse said. We've grown by 3.4% in the first 9 months. Demand is stronger than the entire market, which has grown only slightly above 2% as per September.
And for the price discussion, I can only repeat, prices up to RMB 300,000. Sure, there's a strong focus on EV. Why is that? With the EV cars, especially in this price segment, and this is associated with advantages for the customers, they don't have to pay for the number plates and [indiscernible], which is the case for combustion engine cars. And that's why that's the price limit, around RMB 200,000 to RMB 300,000 or cheaper. And of course, this would move the customer to go for an EV rather than a combustion engine. But we're starting above RMB 300,000. That's why we're not that affected with our customer segment as the entire industry is.
Dominique Gurke from [indiscernible].
Brief question on the graphite in China. There were limitations in post. Do you see any effects on e-mobility for yourself? And how would you respond to that?
Okay. Mr. Zipse, please.
Well, Mr. Gurke, there is not an export ban. There's only a requirement of approval for exporting graphite. So you have to see it according the reference to national security, I mean, export could be prohibited on that basis, but that opens up leeway for the Chinese authorities.
Now how that will be implemented in practice. That's hard to tell. So we'll have to wait and see. By the way, BMW does not directly purchase graphite. It's only when it's used in battery, so there's a supplier involved. And up to today, they're not affected and we're not expecting any direct limitations for the cell protection of our partners in China and outside China.
All right. Thank you very much, Mr. Zipse. Thank you, Mr. Mertl. Colleagues, we have reached at the end of the telephone conference on Q3. Thanks for having attended.
All the best to you, and I'm sure we'll hear each other again soon. Thank you, and [indiscernible] from Munich.