CropEnergies AG
XETRA:CE2
Earnings Call Analysis
Q2-2024 Analysis
CropEnergies AG
The company's latest earnings call reveals a story of market normalization and financial figures that have somewhat descended from previous highs. The grain harvest in the EU notes a slight surplus, beneficial for the bioethanol industry as this surplus aids production. Grain prices are stabilizing, although they remain below the peaks of the past two financial years. Energy markets, including natural gas and crude oil, also show signs of normalization, albeit with warnings about potential volatility due to geopolitical tensions.
Production volumes have steadied around 243,000 cubic meters, but these numbers are significantly lower than the same quarter of the previous year. The operating profit for Q2 took a noticeable downturn to EUR 20 million from EUR 93 million, largely impacted by lower ethanol prices and production volumes. However, a silver lining appears in the form of a positive sequential trend, with Q2 showing improvement over the previous quarter, indicating a potential uptick going forward.
For the first half of the financial year '23-'24, the reduction in operating profit was echoed from Q2's performance. Three main factors attributed to this decrease: volume effects from lower sales and production, high raw material prices, and significantly lower ethanol pricing. The net earnings for the six-month period amounted to EUR 27.5 million, translating to EUR 0.31 per share, a stark comparison to the EUR 1.56 of the prior year's corresponding period.
Cash flow followed the downtrend of operating profit, further pressured by an uptick in working capital, which resulted in EUR 34 million in net cash from operating activities. Investments continue to flow, particularly into the ethyl acetate plant, with CapEx assumptions around EUR 80 million for the full financial year.
The company maintains its revenue forecast between EUR 1.27 billion and EUR 1.37 billion, combined with an EBITDA estimate of EUR 140 million to EUR 190 million and an operating profit between EUR 95 million to EUR 145 million. To achieve this, there is reliance on stable sales, a decrease in raw material and energy market volatility, and notably, a positive impact expected from the introduction of E10 ethanol blending in European markets.
On the strategic front, renewable energy fuels like E20 are being explored, with a pilot station set to open that caters to a closed fleet test. This aligns with the company's push towards comprehensive environmental strategies. Concurrently, investments are being made into high-protein products and diverse revenue streams, exemplified by the EUR 100 million investment in the UK plant for protein concentrate production targeting the Aqua feed and pet food markets.
During the Q&A session, discussions centred on anticipating higher production volumes following completed maintenance, with a year-end production outlook of approximately 1 million cubic meters. The operating profit midpoint guidance hinges on ethanol prices stabilizing around EUR 800 per cubic meter. The feasibility study for ethylene is progressing, with potential investment decisions anticipated by year-end.
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Thank you, George, for the introduction. Welcome, everybody, on our Q2 conference call. Thank you very much for your interest in CropEnergies. We have published our presentation on the website. I hope that you all have it in front of you.
So I would start on Page 2, which is called highlights. So as a background, we have released an ad hoc release on July 12 this year, where we already indicated that we await for Q2 a significant reduction in revenues, EBITDA and operating profit, due to normalized prices and to lower production sales levels due to maintenance shutdowns. And you will see later on when we look into the numbers that Q2 came unexpected. It's clearly significantly below prior year, but it's in line with expectations.
Also important to note that we confirm our guideline as of today, and at the same time, it shall always be noted that if we look into figures of financial year '22, '23, this compares to the fourth record year in a row and the last financial year '21, '22 was exceptionally high. So this is always also something that we should keep in mind if we compare this year's figures to prior year's figures.
So -- and we will see throughout the presentation that somehow a common liability for [indiscernible] could be that is commodity prices, and it gets back to normalization, and we will see this when we look into the commodity prices section and markets we see here more normalized levels.
So on the agenda today, as usually, I will start with an overview on the market and political environment. We will have a look into the financials of second quarter 2023, '24, as just announced, and I will give you a strategy update here with a particular focus on our protein project EnPro in the U.K. And then last but not least, we will have a Q&A section and together with Heike Baumbach, our Head of Investor Relations. I'm happy and we are happy to take your questions.
So please let's move on to Slide #4, which is an overview of the Fit for 55 package. But on this slide, I will be very short as there is no significant news compared to our Q1 presentation. So in a nutshell, this [ RED III ] and Fit for 55 package players and that there's an overall goal for the European Union to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% in '23. So in a nutshell, this is positive. We see increased ambition levels for all renewable energies. And so this is positive for the entire sector, be it all kind of biofuels.
There are always two points that are critical, and I've stated them also last time is we are not okay with having e-mobility prioritized in these political legislations over biofuels because we believe defossilizing transport is such a huge task that we need all technologies, and all technologies can contribute to bringing down CO2 emissions in transport and so do biofuels to a significant part.
And the second point, is always part of our political agenda, where we lobby and informative -- give information on we are not okay with this [indiscernible] ban of the internal combustion engine by 2035. And because we believe when it comes to defossilizing transport, it's not about the internal combustion engine. It's about the fuel that it use and there are better solutions than fossil fuels you can have a significant decrease of CO2 emissions by having higher blending mandates for biofuels in combination and also with synthetic fuels.
So we will continue to inform and say this is not the right direction for defossilizing transport because e-mobility alone, to our view, will not make it. On the next 2 slides, you find some new ideas and new points on politics. So what is new, you are aware, in June next year will be the elections for the European Parliament. In October, November, we will then have the new commission for the new European Commission. And so everything also gets started now for the preparation for these elections, and the parties are doing their programs and have their meetings to prepare for the next 5 years' term of the European Parliament. And what we deem positive is that there are several signs of more realism recently and there should be more pragmatism instead of a stubborn ideology.
And we have four examples for you. This is just examples. But to my mind, it shows that there could be a change of view on the European level when it comes to defossilizing transport. So the first point that we deem to be really positive that on May 20, all the EU leaders cosigned this G7 declaration, which is asserting that sustainable biofuels has a vital role to play in transport decarbonization in June '23, that was also important, the European Court of Auditors published their report and they called into question that the current EU strategy of betting everything on one technology that means the electrification of transport is not seen as the best way to decarbonize transport and also claiming that all technologies should be looked into and can contribute to bringing down CO2 emissions.
The third point is on the next slide. It was in September '23 that the EU Commission introduced surveillance measures on imports, this is just a starting point, but it's a good starting point because this allows over 3 years, all the imports will closely be monitored and reported. And this surveillance allows in a first step -- that means to collect all that information. And if there is an injury to the industry, additional measures could be adopted by the European Commission.
One point also very interesting was on 21st of September, concerning not the EU itself but Europe as a whole, be it the U.K. government which postpones the ban of the internal combustion engine from 2030 to 2035 because not seeing this as a realistic time frame, and this confirms also our view that it's not a good idea to ban new ICE car sales by 2030. So these are positive signs to be follow-up closely whether all those ideas will be reflected in the programs of the parties, which prepare for the new European Parliament elections. So we will continue to monitor closely and to inform you.
So let's move on to Page #7, please, which is titled market developments. So we will have a look into the volumes and prices of our ethanol markets. And it's maybe worth starting on the right-hand side with the table. You can see that from 2022 to 2023, we expect a slight decrease in total volumes for ethanol in EU27 and U.K. So the trend is very stable when it comes to potable alcohol, but the industrial grades are seemed to be with a slight decrease, but we see a good increase overall in fuel ethanol.
So consumption for '23 to be seen around 9.9 million cubic meters, which is then composed of 7.2 in fuel and 2.8 in nonfuel. Production is clearly lower than this. So this is also -- this delta is also then the need for imports to come. We will touch on imports later on. But it's positive to say that for 2023 -- compared to '22 and also for '24 compared to '23, we await an increase in fuel ethanol demand.
When it comes to E10, it's the #1 petrol in many European countries. Positively now we have 17 member states, plus Norway and the U.K. who have rolled out E10 in their petrol stations. When it comes to Germany, here, the E10 sales are also increasing, but we are still last on the list. But compared to prior years, this is nevertheless a strong increase when it comes to E10 sales. What has been positive during the current year was that the E10 sales that was a successful E10 introduction in 3 additional countries Ireland, Austria and Norway, and also the prospects are positive when it comes to next year, it is foreseen that Poland is bringing E10 to the petrol stations and this effect alone should be an additional more than 200,000 cubic meters of ethanol.
On the next page, we will touch upon the imports. I have already addressed as the demand is very strong in Europe and the production is quite stable. So there is a systematic need for imports. And we see this in a strong increase by 135%. That's the right-hand table to levels above 2 million cubic meters of imports into the EU. And recently or last year, there was a huge price gap between the international markets and the European markets and this made the imports attractive, so they came in but also this data has decreased. This is also one of the point why we believe that there should be a good demand and a good support for the prices over the periods to come. Looking more details in the ethanol prices itself. So the average ethanol price in Q2 amounted to EUR 746 per cubic meter compared to prior year's over 1,000 cubic meters. So you see that there is a delta Q2 versus Q2 prior year of over EUR 400 per cubic meter this is the main denominator later on when we look into the figures, we have such a significant decrease in turnover and operating profit.
If we look at the graph on the right-hand side at the bottom there, you see the ethanol price development over the last 3 financial years. And there, you can also see what I stated at the beginning, there's somehow a normalization of prices which now stabilized in the area of EUR 800 per cubic meter. That is what the spot prices had we -- have been over the last days, and we assume this positive trend to be continued.
On the next page, we have a look into the feedstock markets, that is Page #9. We can start also with the graph because they give a good impression what is currently ongoing. So if we start with the grain harvest in the EU, we still see that the EU continues year-by-year to be over-producer, that means producing more than domestic use. This is then positive for the bioethanol industry taking parts of this surplus production. And when it comes to the prices, that's the overall above graph on the right-hand side, you can also see that when it comes to grain prices, there's also somehow a normalization in the levels of, let's say, above EUR 230 million, but clearly below the two prior financial years before. And also, when it comes on the right-hand side, we have seen the European harvest, but the same is true for the global harvest expectations. So there are very positive harvest expectations internationally, too.
On the next page, we have a look into the energy markets too, we see here also a normalization we need, for example, we have here the gas prices for Netherlands and the U.K., we see clearly that gas prices have come down to the levels that we have seen on average in financial year '21, '22 and a much lower volatility. So also here on the energy markets, we see somehow a normalization. But nevertheless, volatility is always to be expected. We cannot exclude distortions from the Ukraine war ongoing and now the new attacks of Hezbollah on Israel.
When it comes to the crude oil price, lately, they also have been on a quite high level. And on average or the last days, it was in the area of USD 88 per barrel.
This having said, given an overview on our markets, let's have a look into our financials. I would like to start with an overview of second quarter '23-'24 you will find it on Page #12. And at first side, you can see clearly that both on production revenues and operating profit figures, it's a significant reduction compared to prior year's calendar too. But as I said at the beginning of this presentation, it is in line with expectation, and that's what this reason that we always already in July this year announced that Q2 will come out much weaker than the prior year's quarter 2.
On the next slide, we see some more details. We can start with production on Page 13. And -- if we look into Q2 production, which amounted to 243,000 cubic meters that was pretty in line with the last 4 quarters, but clearly below prior year's Q2. And when it comes to the outlook for the full financial year, we assume that production in total for the second half of the year should be higher than the production in the first half of the year.
When it comes to operating profit, you see a sharp decline from to EUR 20 million in the second quarter compared to EUR 93 million in the second quarter before. And there are 3 or 2 main effects explaining this delta of EUR 70 million or over EUR 70 million. It's the volume effect of lower production and lower sales but the more significant -- the more significant effect is the ethanol pricing. So this explains the major part of this reduction comes off this reduced ethanol prices, which I have just disclosed at the beginning of the presentation when we looked into the markets.
But as you know me, I'm always looking on the positive side of things. If we look at the graph on the bottom right-hand side, you can see that the second quarter was stronger than Q1 this year and stronger than Q4 last year. So there's a positive trend on the quarterly results and we assume this positive trend to be continued.
Coming from the second quarter isolated to the first half of this financial year '23-'24. You will find this on Page 14 and in a whole, the effect that I just described, they are true for the second quarter and also for the first half year. And in particular, if we here look at the delta for production and operating profit, which you can see on Page 15, the main effect for this decreased operating profit with three elements. So one is also like in Q2 isolated, a volume effect of lower production, lower sales, which explains a big part of this reduction. But also here, the main explanator for this reduction is the ethanol pricing. This explains the major part of this reduction and for the first half year as a whole, we also have an impact from lower -- from higher raw material prices, thus impacting also negatively operating profit development half year '23, '24 compared to prior year's half year results.
On Page 15, we continue to look over half year's results below operating profit. So we start with an operating profit of EUR 34 million. And you can see that we have an increase in the financial result positively, which slightly increased. This is linked to the now positive interest rate surroundings and we have positive income on our net financial assets position. When it comes to taxes, they came out at roughly EUR 10 million for the first 6 months, and thus, net earnings for the period, we ended after 6 months of EUR 27.5 million net earnings, and this corresponds to earnings per share at EUR 0.31 compared to EUR 1.56 in prior year's period.
On Page 16, we have a look into cash flow. And you can see it from the table that cash flow follows the operating profit development. So there is a sharp decrease in cash flow coming in. On top, we have in the first 6 months, an increase in working capital, thus leading to a net cash from operating activities at EUR 34 million. You can see that a big part of it goes into investments in property, plant and equipment. This is particularly our ethyl acetate plant close to sites, which is an on-time and on budget. So this is progressing well. And here, the major part goes in. For the full financial year, our assumption for CapEx is roughly EUR 80 million. And also here, a big part goes into the ethanol [indiscernible] plant.
After financing activities, we came out then at net financial assets position of EUR 273 million, which you can find at the bottom of the graph and also on the right-hand side of the graph.
Let me then come to on Page 17 to the outlook for this financial year '23, '24 after the first 6 months. And we confirmed our outlook in our quarterly and half year report, and we do this today. So we still assume this unchanged revenues to be between EUR 1.27 billion to EUR 1.37 billion, EBITDA in a range of EUR 140 million to EUR 190 million and operating profit to range between EUR 95 million and EUR 145 million. So the midpoint for operating profit is EUR 120 million and as you can see with our half year's results, there's still a way to go to reach this midpoint for the full financial year, but we are optimistic to reach that midpoint, what are the assumptions behind our forecast for this financial year. So we will gradually decrease volatility on the sales, raw material and energy markets. As I stated in the market section, we see a positive impact of the introduction of E10 for the European countries. And this will be met by continued high import volumes. And that means the key element for reaching our midpoint guidance is on the ethanol price. So that's the key denominator for the -- for our outlook.
And if you look at spot prices of ethanol recently, we have seen spot prices above EUR 800 per cubic meter. And this is also the average on October so far. And if you look into the forward curve, this is interesting, and I know you do that too, this is clearly lower. So the forward curve for November is roughly EUR 780 per cubic meter and then the further continue in this backwardation to go down to roughly EUR 700 per cubic meter in February '24. And -- and we have not included this forward curve in our current forecast. So we have a more optimistic view on the ethanol market and that's also the ethanol pricing, and we have a more optimistic ethanol pricing as a guiding for our outlook, and this is the underlying.
What are the reasons why we believe in higher ethanol prices as could be seen by this forward curve? So all in all, we see good ethanol price levels worldwide. So the difference between the European markets and the traditional markets is not so strong as it has been in prior years period. We also see a solid demand for ethanol in the current year. So positively, E10 introductions have been successful. So we see a positive trend from there. as I said, and also for Poland, which is to come in '24.
So we see a positive demand pattern for ethanol when it comes to the blending mandates and we also see a positive demand pattern when it comes to mobility as such. even though Germany might be in a recession, I think the numbers have been published today for seeing a recession for Germany at 0.4%. Even if there's a recession, we do not see that mobility will heavily decrease due to recession and this is confirmed so far by the BAFA data for Germany. So latest data is for July and here we can see year-to-date July that gasoline is still up compared to prior years by roughly 3% and ethanol is also up compared to prior year by 2.3%.
For example, in Germany, and we also see that the fourth argument why we believe in higher ethanol prices, we see a high Brent price. And even though we know there is no perfect correlation between Brent prices and ethanol prices, the high Brent price should be nevertheless supported for higher ethanol prices.
So nevertheless, as a B mall, we have to closely monitor this, there can always be volatility again increasing due to Ukraine and to the developments in Israel, and we will follow up this closely.
Last but not least, before we come to the Q&A section, I would like to give you an overview on what is new on the strategy execution on CropEnergies side. What is not new is our overall strategy, which we have worked out and also explained over the last quarter. So we continue on all of the five bullet points, which you see on the left-hand side. in our current priorities where we put currently our efforts in is, for example, on E20. We believe that E20 is the best fuel grade for Europe, which should be rolled out in the years to come. And what we will do here in Mannheim next week, we will inaugurate the first public petrol station offering E20, so this will be a closed fleet test for the Sudzucker cars, which can be then in the disclosed -- fleet test could be filled with E20. And when we come next time together in Q3, we are happy to give you first information on that and how it rolled out, but the inauguration of this petrol station will take place here in Mannheim next week.
The second point where we put our current priorities on is second-generation ethanol with a special focus for waste and residues. Here, we are working on a concrete or precise project, and we hope to close this project in Q4. The third part, we put all our current priorities on the protein. It's very important always to reiterate that Europe as a whole has a protein deficit for plant-based protein. So this is very interesting markets. And so in the next page, I will give you an overview on our EnPro project where we announced in July this year the outline of this project.
And we also focus our current priorities on Biogas Chemicals. So the ethyl acetate plant is progressing well in time and in budget. So focused topic for today is EnPro, our protein concentrate, which you find on Page 19, that is our last slide before we go into the Q&A section. So we have announced in July that CropEnergies is to invest roughly EUR 100 million in our [indiscernible] plant in the U.K. and EUR 75 million of this EUR 100 million goes into the “EnPro” project and EUR 25 million is going into increasing further the plant when it comes to energy savings and plant reliability and special focus today is the “EnPro” project. So we aim to produce here a high protein product, which is aimed at the U.K. and European Aqua feed and pet food markets.
What is interesting about this product, it has a protein content of 55% to 60%. So this is very high, and it is GMO-free and sustainable. So high -- very high consumer value. The capacity of this production shall be roughly 60,000 tonnes. And in this context, it is worth explaining that this is not an additional capacity because with a given production and then with a given raw material mix taken in, the tons of proteins are pre-definite. But what we do with these projects, we bring this protein products to a higher concentration. And this is what the high consumer needs or consumer added value is then for our customers.
The total investment is approximately, as I said, EUR 75 million out of this EUR 100 million and all in all, this is a diversification of the overall product portfolio, and we will benefit from the positive developments in Aqua feeding in Europe.
When it comes to timing, we started with the project. We announced it and commissioning is scheduled for 2025 year. So thank you very much so far. That was our presentation on Q2 this time.
Now Heike and myself, we are happy to take your questions.
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Moers Hartmut from MATELAN.
Yes, I'd like to follow up on a couple of statements you already made. So the first one would with regard to production. You told us in the first quarter that you had some maintenance to do and you indicated for the second quarter that there still is some work in terms of maintenance that would lead to a lower than usual production, so you indicated already that there would be a higher production in the second half of the year. Can we take from that, that all maintenance work is now over and that we are looking back at a normal production level so that we arrive at the full year at something north of 1 million cubic meters in production? Is that still a valid assumption?
Okay. Shall we go question by question, maybe that's easier. Yes, I can confirm. Our outlook for this year is the scheduled maintenance is done in the first half year. So we await a higher production in the second half of the year. So we will be roughly around 1 million cubic meters production. We are not sure whether we can meet last year's figures. So there can be -- compared to last year, there could be a reduction in production, but what we are aiming for is to have a higher production in H2 compared to H1.
Okay. That's fair. The second is with regard to the explanation you made with regard to your guidance. I mean you said correctly, you are at EUR 34 million operating profit now, midpoint of the guidance EUR 120 million,so there's still some way to go. And I fully understand and appreciate the explanations you made with regard to your ethanol price assumption.
But can we take from that 800 is something of a decent level where the midpoint of your guidance is, let's say, well within reach. There's always some a couple of percent, plus or minus, but 800 is roughly the level that you need to reach the midpoint of your guidance? And if we fell below that, even that -- even though that might be not very likely. But if we did, then we would consider to fall below the midpoint of the guidance. Is that a way to see it?
That's a fair assumption. And I mean, I indicated our reasoning why we believe in stronger ethanol price but it's also true if you look into the graph, again on Page #8 here, you can clearly see that the prices have been around 800 over the last weeks and we deem if there is no unforeseen circumstances, this should be somehow like a market equity. So we believe prices to be roughly at around 800 plus.
Yes. We've also seen in the past that the backwardation curve has always shifted sideways. There's a couple of reasons for that to be true. And -- but for us, just as an indication, 800 is a level where that EUR 120 million is, well, the figure that should come out.
If we are below that. We are probably moving towards the upper end of the guidance. And if we fall below 800, we are probably moving towards the lower end.
I cannot be that precise, but it's a fair assumption.
Okay. The third one would be on ethylene. I probably might have missed it if you mentioned it, but I haven't noticed it. I mean you're at the end of the feasibility study. And you had foreseen or other results of this feasibility study as far as they are there right now, at a level where you think it is likely that you go a step further? Or are you insecure in that respect?
Thanks for asking this question. I said when it comes to our current priorities, it's bio-based chemicals, but I just talked about ethyl acetate, you're completely right? Ethylene is the same. That's part of our top priorities in the section of Biobase Chemicals. So the teams of Syclus and CropEnergies work with high dedication on doing the -- the engineering and looking into the models with all the components that it has. So we have chosen the technology provider based on this, we can have more precise numbers when it comes to the CapEx.
We work with high utilizing all the commercial aspects that means customer talks, when it comes to pricing, logistics, raw materials take in and everything to make this project bringing to an investment decision. So this progress is very well, and we are fully on track to have all the data available to base a sound investment decision upon by the end of this year.
So -- but we are still in the phase of collecting all the numbers as of today. it would be too early to say we are faced with high dedication, bringing together all the numbers, all the assumptions into our business model. And then we can -- based on that, we can -- we will be able to take an investment decision late this year.
Great. And the last one is just understanding from my side. You said CapEx year-end will be around EUR 80 million. So there is EUR 60 million roughly to come in the second half of the year. How much of that -- where we roughly is dedicated to the new projects, so in particular, [later]?
So it is EUR 80 million is the total number that we foresee for this year. And ethyl acetate shall be delayed, the biggest part of it should be in the area of [indiscernible] 30s.
Our next question comes from the line of Axel Herlinghaus from DZ Bank.
I have just two that have been left over. The first would be to wheat prices. So [massive] wheat growths in the second half of the year, good indicator of grain input costs given the trapitation-related interim high supply of feed wheat and taking into account your hedging time lag? Or should one apply a notistical discount to [ market ] quotations in modeling your wheat costs?
Yes. If you look to the feedstock market, where there was on Page 9. We see that the grain prices next expiry date were roughly 230. And I think what we generally see is a pressure on grain prices as such, yes, because there's a very good harvest on the one side. And on the other side, there's also a push from us -- from the Ukrainian producers. And I think given the high production overall, we have the assumption that grain prices will continue to be discount when it comes to the [ market ] quotations.
And then when it comes to the actual then grain intake prices, there can always be given on the different locations that we have. There can be premiums or discounts on this market quotation for the different locations that this has to do with availability close to the sites and logistics and what we see right now is that there's even positively speaking, a discount on the market quotations.
So we believe to have raw material prices below market quotations but on the other side, we already have, as we have typically -- have already a very high grain price hedging. That means the volatility on the grain prices does not have such an important effect on our guidance as the ethanol price does.
Okay. The second would be for ethyl acetate. So given that you're first along in your ethyl acetate effort under the overarching innovation from biomass strategy, could you give us an update on the discussions with your target customers regarding their intent to pay a renewable ethyl acetate premium? And that if that gives you the persuasion that you can reach your business goals in ethyl acetate?
Yes. I mean the customer feedback that we get so far is very positive. Everybody who is active in that field is interested in the product. But for sure, they are -- prior to launching our starting production, you won't get definitive figures with precise numbers. But the feedback is very positive. So we are confident to reach the premiums that we have in our planning.
Okay. And if I may, a third one to import competition, just a short one, how you see a situation around Pakistan and perhaps why is Pakistan not paying duties on the ethanol exports to Europe, in regard to Brazil and U.S., you have to pay duties.
Yes, you're fully right. I mean, this is a point of concern for us, Pakistan imports. They do not pay imports. They have a preferential status called GSP plus And so the -- typically, the countries like U.S. and Brazil, they have to pay duties, which is EUR 102 per cubic meter for denatured ethanol and EUR 192 for un-denatured. Pakistan does not have to pay that because they have a preferential status in this preferential status just had been prolongated for 4 more years. So we had deploying against that because we deem Pakistan imports to be unfair competition. But the European Commission and the member states they voted to prolongate this preferential status for Pakistan. So there's still a threat from this side to be continued. Yes, we will continue to see, unfortunately, high imports from Pakistan.
Okay. And just a quick one, perhaps for the last. There is objective progress in E10 in Europe, possibly even in Brussels in the next year. But are there actually early indications of an eventual E20 future for Europe? Because you mentioned that your vision of the optimal tool for Europe.
Yes. I mean we put a lot of emphasis on E20. The background of this is that ethanol as such has come in with 107 octane, so that means it's a high-performance fuel or it makes a blend the higher the ethanol component, it makes the octane number of the mixed fuel much better. So with E20, you can get to 9,800 octane in a mix. On the other side, Ethanol has a lower energy density than fossil gasoline. And so we believe the technical optimum is in the range between E20 and E25. And this is what we see, for example, in Brazil, where E27 is the standard fuel and many other countries also like India now goes to E20.
So we see an overall trend towards higher blending mandates in the ethanol markets and then typically reaching E20. There are also additional niche markets like in France, where we have an E85 blend. But we believe that E20 would be really a very good plan for Europe when you combine the driving characteristics and CO2 savings.
And there are different tests ongoing, which are very positive for E20 and also the Automotive Producers Association of Germany, [indiscernible ] communicated that they say for Europe, we need E20 else we won't be able to reach the CO2 savings for the existing car fleet yes.
And that's why we have put also a lot of emphasis on that, but still E20 is not a standardized fuel. So the standardization process is ongoing. There's progress, there several meetings a year from the standardization group. There's also, from my point of view, increasing support from the big mineral companies for this topic, but it's nevertheless a huge administrative burden. This could take another maybe 1, 2 years, but then we should be able to have an E20 specification for Europe, if all the players seen and I'm strong here at [indiscernible] and together -- it's feasible. It's feasible, and we deem this really reasonable for Europe when it comes to really decarbonizing or defossilizing the existing car fleet.
[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. I hand back over to Dr. Stephan Meeder for closing comments.
Okay. Then I do thank you very much all for your interest and questions and participation in this conference call. and happy to talk to you soon at the latest in our Q3 conference call, which is foreseen in. I have to look. Give me 1 second. Q3 is to come on 10th of January. So thank you very much and keep contacted. All the best for you. Thank you. Bye.