Deutsche Bank AG
XETRA:DBK
Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2023 Analysis
Deutsche Bank AG
Reporting a robust financial performance, the company experiences a 7% revenue growth for the past 12 months relative to 2021, surpassing their 2025 target. Cost management has improved the cost-income ratio by 2 percentage points to 73%, while return on tangible equity stands at 7% for the first nine months of 2023. The capital position remains strong with a CET1 ratio of 13.9%, and a liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) at 132%, meeting the target of around 130%. The company exudes confidence in achieving or surpassing its targets by 2025.
For the third quarter, revenues were EUR 7.1 billion, reflecting a 3% increase year-on-year, with noninterest expenses at EUR 5.2 billion marking a 4% rise. This includes litigation charges and restructuring provisions, with an adjusted cost increase of 2% year-on-year. Net profit saw a slight decline of 3% due to a higher effective tax rate compared to the prior year.
The Corporate Bank presents a slightly declined net interest margin due to less lending income and higher costs, while in the Investment Bank, FIC Sales & Trading were down by 12% from a strong previous quarter. Origination and Advisory revenues, however, tripled due to the absence of prior year markdowns, showcasing a significant performance lift, positioning well for improvements into 2024.
There's been a noted small uptick in loans in the Corporate Bank, and while Private Bank loan growth has been sluggish, there's room to expand margin lending in wealth management and unsecured consumer lending. The Private Bank also recorded net inflows amounting to EUR 9 billion, with stable credit quality across portfolios.
Business deployment has been limited, with capital generation mainly supporting distributions and improving the capital ratio. Now at a comfortable capital buffer, the company is looking at potentials for increased business deployment and significant distribution increase possibilities. Loan growth is expected to continue, with the loan-to-deposit ratio now below 80%. The company is cautious about capital growth in the Investment Bank given the current credit environment.
Management reveals that they have been surprised to find additional opportunities for RWA optimization beyond previous measures, such as securitization ventures, indicating there is still scope to redeploy capital at better margins. With Basel IV changes, additional capital will not fundamentally alter the growth potential or risk appetite of the business. The company is committed to disciplined capital allocation, especially with regard to Investment Bank strategy, maintaining a conservative approach despite potential opportunities from U.S. banks' pullback due to Basel IV.
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Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I am Sandra, the Chorus Call operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Deutsche Bank Q3 2023 Analyst Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Silke Szypa, Deputy Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, madam.
Thank you for joining us for our Third Quarter 2023 Results Call. As usual, our Chief Executive Officer, Christian Sewing, will speak first, followed by our Chief Financial Officer, James von Moltke. The presentation, as always, is available to download in the Investor Relations section of our website at db.com. Before we get started, let me remind you that the presentation contains forward-looking statements which may not develop as we currently expect. We therefore ask you to take notice of the precautionary warning at the end of our material. With that, let me hand over to Christian.
Thank you, Silke. And a warm welcome also from my side. It's a pleasure to be discussing our third quarter and 9 months results with you today. These results show our continued progress on the paths to our targets in several respects. First and foremost, we continue to demonstrate strong earnings momentum. We generated profit before tax of EUR 5 billion in the first 9 months after absorbing nearly EUR 950 million in nonoperating costs, including restructuring related to operational efficiencies. Our post-tax RoTE was 7%; and would have been nearly 9%, excluding these nonoperating costs and with bank levies apportioned equally across the year. This reflects progress on our path to meet our 2025 target of above 10%. Second, we are seeing progress across all 3 dimensions of accelerated execution of our Global Hausbank strategy, namely revenue growth, operational efficiency and capital efficiency. Strong operating performance is driven by business momentum through a well-balanced business model. Revenues in the first 9 months were EUR 22.2 billion, up 6% year-on-year, well above our target growth rate. Private Bank and Asset Management together attracted net inflows of EUR 39 billion alongside EUR 18 billion of deposit growth at the group level in the third quarter. We also continued to make progress on the second dimension of our Global Hausbank strategy, operational efficiency. We have progressed with existing measures and we have additional measures in flight. And in terms of capital, we are delivering on our distribution commitments. We are on track to complete the EUR 450 million share repurchase announced in July, thereby delivering total distributions across 2022 and 2023 of EUR 1.75 billion. We finished the third quarter with strong capital. Our CET1 ratio was 13.9%. And in addition, we have identified further capital opportunities. And we now see scope to free up additional capital of EUR 3 billion, enabling us to accelerate our strategy and boost returns above our original expectations from now through 2025 and beyond. This gives us added potential to increase capital distributions to shareholders while also deploying capital to support clients. Before we move on to progress in our businesses, let me give you an update on the Postbank IT migration. This was one of the largest IT migration projects in European banking and is essential to lay the foundations for a more digital bank offering at Postbank. We successfully migrated 50 billion records of 12 million Postbank customers. However, we saw unexpected levels of client inquiries, which led to backlogs. We have put measures in place to work through these backlogs. This not only includes an increase of temporary staff but also accelerating measures already underway such as implementation of automation and process optimization tools. And I am pleased that we have reduced the operational backlog by about 2/3 over the past weeks. And we expect 70% of all impacted Postbank customer processes to run against service level commitments again by end of October, including processes which have been particular critical for our clients. We are confident that the remainder will be completed in the fourth quarter. Let me now turn to the key highlights of our resilient performance over the 9 months on Slide 2. We delivered operating leverage of 4% on an adjusted basis in the first 9 months, with revenues up 6% and adjusted costs up 2%. As a result, our pre-provision profit for the first 9 months was up 5% on -- year-on-year to EUR 6 billion. In addition, we continued to reap the benefits of disciplined risk management and a high-quality loan book. Provisions for credit losses for the first 9 months remained in line with our full year guidance at 28 basis points of average loans. Our balance sheet proved its resilience. Deposits rebounded by EUR 18 billion to EUR 611 billion in the third quarter. We saw franchise momentum across the board. And furthermore, we strengthened our capital position. Our CET1 ratio rose to 13.9% during the quarter, thanks primarily to strong organic capital generation from earnings and the results of our capital optimization efforts. This more than offset negative regulatory impacts, mostly model changes, and deductions for dividends and share buybacks. Let me now discuss the growth and balance across our business on Slide 3. The Corporate Bank delivered a post-tax RoTE of 17% in the past 9 months. Strong revenue growth combined with flat adjusted costs driven by tight expense discipline produced operating leverage of 24%. Our momentum with key clients is encouraging. We saw an increase of around 40% in incremental deals won with multinational corporate clients, which will drive future revenues. Our client focus, strong core capabilities and standing as an innovative thought leader in the market have been evidenced by The Banker's Transaction Banking Awards 2023, where Deutsche Bank has been voted best bank for cash management as well as transaction bank of the year for Western Europe for the second consecutive year. In the Investment Bank, we have a well-diversified business portfolio supported by our leading financing business which contributed EUR 2.2 billion or approximately 35% of FIC revenues year-to-date. We have invested into our Origination and Advisory business, taking advantage of market opportunities which are expected to drive future revenues, including through the acquisition of Numis which we recently completed. We are also seeing clear signs of recovery in the market led by Debt Origination. Turning to the Private Bank. The business grew revenues; attracted inflows of EUR 22 billion, supported by new money campaigns; and made further progress in streamlining our distribution channels. And finally, we also grew volumes in Asset Management. Assets under management grew by EUR 38 billion, including EUR 17 billion of net inflows, in the first 9 months of 2023, driven by strong inflows into passive, including Xtrackers. The business launched 18 new products in the third quarter alone, including our first thematic ETFs in the U.S. market. To sum up. We delivered revenues of EUR 28.5 billion in the last 12 months to September 30, up over 6% versus the equivalent prior period. We also see forward momentum from net inflows, investments and business wins with key clients. Our businesses are strongly complementary and well balanced. All of this supports our conviction that we will continue to grow our franchise and exceed our revenue growth targets. Now let me turn to the progress we are making to accelerate the execution of our Global Hausbank strategy on Slide 4. First, on revenues, with compound annual revenue growth of 6.9% over 2021, we are well on track to outperform on our revenue growth target of 3.5% to 4.5%. And we will continue to benefit from the higher rate environment, which drives sustainable performance in the Private Bank and Corporate Bank. We also made progress with our own initiatives that are expected to drive fee income. We are confident that the new addition to the family, Deutsche Numis, will enable us to take added advantage of an expected pickup in corporate finance activity. With EUR 39 billion of net asset inflows in the 9 months, we have expect -- we expect the growth of our assets under management to drive fee income in future quarters. Second, on operational efficiencies, our existing savings measures are largely proceeding in line with or ahead of our plan. This includes streamlining of front-to-back processes and head count management. We are also optimizing our distribution network, and we have reduced branches by more than 90 over the first 9 months of 2023. And this enabled us to keep our adjusted costs essentially flat compared to the prior year quarter despite absorbing inflationary pressures and investments in growth and controls, and we continue to work on further measures. And third, turning to capital efficiencies. As I mentioned earlier, we have made considerable progress on several fronts. We have already delivered, after 2 quarters, around EUR 10 billion of the EUR 15 billion to EUR 20 billion RWA reduction we planned by the end of 2025. Other measures are already ongoing, mainly focused on hedging and reductions in sub-hurdle lending. And given progress to date, we have identified additional opportunities to reduce RWAs further; and this enables us to raise our target by EUR 10 billion to EUR 20 billion to EUR 30 billion. Let's now discuss what this means for us on Slide 5. As just mentioned, we will deliver a further RWA reduction of around EUR 10 billion from our capital optimization measures. And on top of this, we now anticipate a lower impact from Basel III by EUR 10 billion to EUR 15 billion, which James will discuss in a moment. Taken together, these 2 factors give us potential to free up additional capital of around EUR 3 billion through 2025. We believe that our enhanced capital outlook will support accelerated and expanded distributions to shareholders while increasing our ability to invest in our platforms to boost growth and profitability. We will deliver this by sharpening our business model around capital-light and at-scale businesses while applying rigorous hurdle rates to our portfolios to drive returns. As we look to 2025 and beyond, we see clear opportunity to shift gears through a self-reinforcing process of franchise growth, operating leverage and increased returns; and to create more lasting value for our shareholders as our Global Hausbank grows. With that, let me hand over to James.
Thank you, Christian. Let me start with a few key performance indicators on Slide 8 and place them in the context of our 2025 targets. Christian outlined the business momentum and our well-balanced revenue mix which resulted in revenue growth of nearly 7% on a compound basis for the last 12 months relative to 2021. This performance puts us well on track to deliver revenue growth above our 2025 target. Our strong revenue growth, combined with cost management, led to a 2 percentage point improvement in the cost-income ratio to 73%. And our return on tangible equity was 7% in the first 9 months of 2023. These ratios would have improved by almost 5% and 1.8 percentage points if adjusted for higher nonoperating costs and if bank levies were apportioned equally across the year. Our capital position remained strong with CET1 ratio at 13.9% this quarter after absorbing regulatory headwinds and the impact of the share repurchase. Our liquidity metrics also remained strong. LCR was 132%, in line with our target of around 130%. And the net stable funding ratio was 121%. In short, our performance in the period reaffirms our resilience and our confidence in reaching or exceeding our 2025 targets. With that, let me turn to the third quarter highlights on Slide 8. Group revenues were EUR 7.1 billion, up 3% on the third quarter of 2022; or 6%, excluding specific items. Noninterest expenses were EUR 5.2 billion, up 4% year-on-year, mainly driven by higher nonoperating expenses. Nonoperating expenses this quarter included litigation charges of EUR 105 million and EUR 94 million of restructuring and severance provisions. Adjusted costs increased 2% year-on-year, which I will discuss in more detail shortly. Provision for credit losses was EUR 245 million or 20 basis points of average loans. We generated a profit before tax of EUR 1.7 billion, up 7% year-on-year. Net profit of EUR 1.2 billion was down 3% year-on-year, reflecting an effective tax rate of 30% compared to 23% in the prior year quarter. Our cost-income ratio was 72.4%. And our post-tax return on average tangible shareholders' equity was 7.3% in the quarter. Diluted earnings per share was EUR 0.56 in the third quarter. And tangible book value per share was EUR 27.74, up 5% year-on-year. Let me now turn to some of the drivers of these results, starting with interest revenues on Slide 9. Average interest-earning assets increased by EUR 6 billion quarter-on-quarter, driven by the increase in our deposit levels led by the Corporate Bank. Net interest margin in the Corporate Bank declined by approximately 25 basis points due to lower lending income and a higher cost of liquidity reserves. However, net interest income on the corporate deposit books remained stable over the quarter. And interest margin in the Private Bank remained broadly stable in the third quarter. Overall, our deposit betas continue to outperform our models. At the group level, NIM is down 12 basis points, of which approximately 5 basis points relates to an accounting impact in C&O, similar to the first quarter. And the balance relates to the NIM reduction in the Corporate Bank. With that, let's turn to adjusted costs on Slide 10. Adjusted costs excluding banks -- bank levies were EUR 4.96 billion, in line with the prior quarter and up 2% year-on-year. The increase is driven by inflationary pressures, ongoing investments in controls and business growth, which were partially offset by active cost management measures. All cost categories, except for other costs, were broadly flat to the prior year quarter. The variance in other noncompensation costs includes the nonrecurrence of benefits in the prior year quarter which related to deposit protection cost as well as movements in operational taxes. In addition, we see a normalization of marketing spend. And we continue to invest into talent. Let's now turn to provision for credit losses on Slide 11. Provision for credit losses in the third quarter was EUR 245 million, equivalent to 20 basis points of average loans. The decline compared to the previous quarter reflected a reversal of approximately EUR 100 million of stage 1 and 2 provisions driven by model changes and improved macroeconomic forecasts mainly impacting the Investment Bank and Corporate Bank. Stage 3 provisions of EUR 346 million were broadly in line with the previous quarter. Provisions this quarter were driven by the Private Bank and Investment Bank, while the Corporate Bank benefited from a lower level of impairments. For the full year, we continue to expect provisions to land at the upper end of our guidance range of 25 to 30 basis points of average loans. Before we move to performance in our businesses, let me turn to capital on the next 2 slides, starting with Slide 12. Our third quarter common equity Tier 1 ratio came in at 13.9%, a 19 basis point increase compared to the previous quarter. Regulatory changes, principally from the go-live of now approved wholesale and retail models, resulted in a decline of 38 basis points, slightly below the low end of our previous guidance. Optimization initiatives generated 27 basis points from lower-credit-risk RWA, principally reflecting improvements in our data and certain process changes. Further 19 basis points of ratio support came from diligent risk management in our businesses. Finally, 11 basis point increase came from strong organic capital generation. That is net income offset by deductions for the share buyback, dividends and AT1 coupons. Building on Christian's earlier comments, let me give updated guidance on our capital outlook on Slide 13. As mentioned, regulatory changes led to a reduction of 38 basis points in our common equity Tier 1 ratio. With the go-live of the now approved wholesale and retail models, the ECB has completed the review of approximately 85% of the relevant portfolio; and we expect only a limited ratio impact from the remainder. Next, we announced in the first quarter of this year a targeted EUR 15 billion to EUR 20 billion RWA reduction by the end of 2025 through several capital optimization initiatives. We accelerated some of the anticipated data and process optimization initiatives into the third quarter, which brings the cumulative RWA reductions to EUR 10 billion to date. The work we have done over the past several months gives us the confidence to increase the original target by EUR 10 billion to EUR 25 billion to EUR 30 billion. Lastly, let me touch on our Basel III estimates. The latest review of our impact assessments indicates an RWA increase of only around EUR 15 billion compared to the EUR 25 billion to EUR 30 billion we have previously guided. The majority of the improvement comes from our market risk and credit valuation adjustment FRTB program, the impact estimates for which matured significantly. Credit risk estimates are still under review and remain dependent on the final CRR3 legislative text. Overall, let me highlight that current estimates are based on our interpretation of current draft regulation and therefore remain subject to change. Cumulatively, these changes in our outlook are significant and support Christian's earlier statements relating to our enhanced ability to execute our strategy and improve our return profile. Let's now turn to performance in our businesses, starting with the Corporate Bank on Slide 15. Corporate Bank revenues in the third quarter were EUR 1.9 billion, 21% higher year-on-year, driven by an improved interest rate environment and pricing discipline, with double-digit growth across all client segments. Sequentially, revenues decreased slightly due to lower net interest income from lending and a higher cost of liquidity reserves. However, pricing discipline in our deposit businesses remained exceptionally strong with limited pass-through and higher business volumes, resulting in strong deposit income. We continue to anticipate a normalization of our deposit revenues over the coming quarters, which we expect to be partially offset by growing noninterest rate-sensitive revenue streams, including commission and fees. Loan volume in the Corporate Bank was EUR 117 billion, down by EUR 12 billion compared to the prior year quarter but EUR 1 billion higher compared to the low point in the prior quarter. Deposits were EUR 286 billion, EUR 15 billion higher than in the second quarter, with growth in both overnight and term balances in euro and U.S. dollar; and essentially flat compared to the prior year quarter despite the market events in March. Provision for credit losses was EUR 11 million or 4 basis points of average loans. The decrease compared to the prior quarter reflects a lower number of impairments in the third quarter and further benefits from Stage 3 recoveries as well as model changes impacting Stages 1 and 2 performing loans. Noninterest expenses were EUR 1.1 billion, a decrease of 2% year-on-year driven by FX movements. Sequentially, expenses decreased by 7%, predominantly driven by the nonrepetition of litigation charges. Profit before tax was EUR 805 million in the quarter, doubling year-on-year and driving the post-tax return on tangible equity to 18.3%, with the cost-income ratio at 57%. I'll now turn to the Investment Bank on Slide 16. Revenues for the third quarter were essentially flat, including -- excluding the impact of DVA, and 4% lower year-on-year on a reported basis. FIC Sales & Trading decreased by 12% against what was a strong prior year quarter. Rates, Foreign Exchange and Emerging Markets revenues were all lower compared to a very strong prior year quarter and reflected a less-volatile market environment. Financing revenues remained strong on an absolute basis, though down year-on-year due to the nonrepeat of a material episodic item in the prior year quarter. Credit Trading revenues were significantly higher, driven by ongoing improvements in the flow business and continued strong performance in distressed.
Moving to Origination and Advisory. Revenues were up over threefold, materially driven by the nonrecurrence of leveraged lending markdowns in the prior year. However, excluding these markdowns, Origination and Advisory performance was still significantly higher and outperformed the industry fee pool. Debt Origination revenues were significantly higher, benefiting from the nonrepeat of the aforementioned markdowns and improved LDCM performance, which saw a partial recovery in both the industry fee pool and our market share versus the prior year. Advisory revenues were significantly lower, reflecting a decline in the industry fee pool. However, as previously stated, with signs that deal activity is starting to recover, we expect our investments in Origination and Advisory to result in a significant improvement in performance into 2024. Noninterest expenses and adjusted costs were both essentially flat year-on-year. Risk-weighted assets were broadly stable year-on-year. Leverage decreased year-on-year, driven by the impact of foreign exchange movements. Provision for credit losses was EUR 63 million or 25 basis points of average loans. The decrease versus the prior year was primarily driven by model changes affecting Stage 1 and 2 performing loans, partially offsetting Stage 3 impairments from commercial real estate. Turning to the Private Bank on Slide 17. Revenues were up 3% year-on-year, or 9% if adjusted for specific items in the prior year period which related to Sal. Oppenheim workout activities. Net interest income was essentially flat quarter-on-quarter. And higher deposit revenues in the third quarter were mainly offset by higher mortgage hedging costs, following the Postbank transition, which were held centrally before. In the Private Bank Germany, revenues increased by 16% due to higher deposit revenues. A decline in fee income mainly reflected changes in contractual conditions impacting insurance products. Reported revenues in the International Private Bank were down 13% or up 2% year-on-year if adjusted for the nonrecurrence of both specific revenue items in the prior year quarter and revenues from the divested financial advisory business in Italy as well as FX impacts. Growth was driven by deposit products in Europe, which were in part offset by continued client deleveraging in Asia. Revenues in Wealth Management & Bank for Entrepreneurs declined by 21%, or 3% if adjusted for the aforementioned effects. Revenues in Premium Banking increased by 14%, supported by higher interest rates. Turning to costs. The increase of noninterest expenses mainly reflects continued higher internal service cost allocations, including investments in controls; as well as restructuring provisions; and severance related to strategy execution. The prior year period included a benefit from deposit protection costs. Provision for credit losses was EUR 174 million or 27 basis points of average loans in the quarter and included an impact of approximately EUR 25 million driven by the temporary operational backlog at Postbank. Overall, credit quality remained stable across our portfolios. The Private Bank attracted net inflows of EUR 9 billion in the quarter, with EUR 6 billion in AUM deposits and EUR 3 billion in investment products. Let me continue with Asset Management on Slide 18. My usual reminder: The Asset Management segment includes certain items that are not part of the DWS stand-alone financials. Assets under management remained stable at EUR 860 billion in the quarter, supported by net inflows and positive FX effects, largely offset by EUR 13 billion of market depreciation. Net inflows were primarily in passive, continuing the momentum in our Xtrackers products we've seen throughout the year. As you will have seen in their results, DWS saw a decline in revenues compared to the prior year. However, with slightly lower noninterest expenses, profit before tax was essentially flat. This development principally reflected a 6% decline in management fees to EUR 589 million due to prior year declines in assets under management, driven by net outflows excluding cash and market developments in 2022, as well as FX movements. Performance fees declined by EUR 19 million. Other revenues declined due to lower mark-to-market valuations of co-investments, partly offset by favorable outcome of deferred compensation hedges. Noninterest expenses and adjusted costs were both 8% lower than the prior year. Compensation costs were lower, driven by a significant decline in carried interest expense partially due to lower performance fees in the period. Noncompensation costs were also lower, reflecting effective cost reductions across almost all cost categories. Profit before tax of EUR 109 million in the quarter was down 18% compared to the prior year, reflecting revenue performance. The cost-income ratio for the quarter was 75%, and return on tangible equity was 13%. Moving to Corporate & Other on Slide 19. Corporate & Other reported a pretax loss of EUR 195 million this quarter versus a pretax loss of EUR 28 million in the third quarter of 2022. This year-on-year change was driven in part by valuation and timing differences, which were positive EUR 158 million in this quarter versus EUR 199 million in the prior year quarter. The V&T result in this quarter was driven in particular by the reversal of prior period losses. Expenses associated with shareholder activities were EUR 170 million in the quarter compared to EUR 144 million in the prior year quarter. And the pretax loss associated with legacy portfolios was negative EUR 137 million, driven primarily by litigation charges. Turning to the group outlook for the full year on Slide 20. We remain focused on delivering positive operating leverage as we drive our revenue growth initiatives and execute our cost reduction measures. We now expect full year 2023 revenues to be around EUR 29 billion. Our noninterest expenses will be slightly higher, reflecting a series of nonoperating items. However, we expect our adjusted costs to remain essentially flat, in line with our guidance. Provision for credit losses is expected at the upper end of the 25 to 30 basis points range of average loans for the full year. Thinking ahead. Our fourth quarter earnings are expected to be impacted by a number of one-off items, both positive and negative, including an accounting impairment of the goodwill from the Numis acquisition, a potential restitution payment from a national resolution fund, further restructuring and severance as well as year-end tax adjustments. And finally, as both Christian and I have mentioned earlier, our capital outlook is substantially improved by further RWA reductions we have identified. And we plan to engage with supervisors on the scope for further additional distributions to shareholders. With that, let me hand back to Silke. And we look forward to your questions.
Thank you very much. Operator, we are ready for -- to take the questions.
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Nicolas Payen from Kepler Cheuvreux.
I have 2, please, on capital. The first one is on your increased capital efficiency. Could you give us a bit of more color on how you managed to increase your reduction targets by EUR 10 billion? And also, regarding the EUR 3 billion of potential additional freed up capital through 2025, what does it mean for your capital distribution and your targeted EUR 8 billion shareholders' distribution? Should we expect a meaningful increase as soon as next year? And then on the regulatory capital outlook and the improved Basel III outlook, is the new guidance related to the input floor? And also do you have any change regarding your output floor guidance?
Thank you, Nico, for your question. Let me take the first part, and then I hand over to James. Look. Let me start that this is a very important and, I think, very good day for Deutsche Bank because I think what we show now also on the capital side is nothing else than further evidence that our long-term strategy and obviously the diligent execution around it is paying off more and more; and obviously more to come. To your capital distribution question and how we did arrive: Yes, it's a good day for shareholders with material progress on our capital measures and scope to freeing up additional capital of the mentioned EUR 3 billion from now through 2025. And as both James and I said in our prepared remarks, we see the outlook improvements regarding capital efficiency. And Basel IV is providing us with the opportunity to both accelerate and expand our distribution glide path. Amongst other things, it gives us the confidence to go beyond our earlier expectations in terms of buyback potential already next year. The better-than-expected third quarter RWA optimization and the improved outlook are both relatively recent changes. And hence, and I hope you understand, that -- it is a bit too early to provide exact details of how and when we will be in a position to accelerate exactly this distribution path. And Nico, as you would expect, we are obviously in discussions with our supervisor on the revised capital plan. As we have laid down, though, a very clear path for dividends, i.e., a 50% increase per year the next 2 years, extra distributions would come in form of share buybacks. And subject to further dialogue with our supervisors, we would expect a significant proportion of the incremental capital to be distributed to our shareholders. And for instance, one way to think about this trajectory, Nico, from here is that it gives us the opportunity to move to a 50% payout ratio sooner than we initially expected, so I think at this point we can safely say that shareholder distributions is a key priority for Deutsche Bank. And for more details, I hand over to James.
Sure. Thank you, Christian. And Nicolas, thank you for the question. So to give you a little bit of color on what has the optimization been that we've accomplished, so far. You've seen us do 3 securitizations over the past couple of quarters, including 1 on the Italian consumer portfolio in this quarter; and so that's been sort of quicker and more effective than we might have expected. And then when we talk about data and process improvements, the data is quite powerful. And by the way, this is where also we're getting the Postbank portfolio onto the same systems as DB is helpful because we're able to apply, for example, SME support factors [indiscernible] support factors on the portfolio in a way that we couldn't in the prior landscape. So it's enhancing the data; enhancing the way that we -- that our portfolio, if you like, interact with the rules. We think there's still a distance to go with that. And although we've worked on it for years, as rules change, one always finds additional optimization measures, so that's been very encouraging. If I think about your question about input, output floors on Basel III. We've really been focused on the 1/1/25 impact; and as you've seen, dramatic improvement based on better visibility into the FRTB models, as we mentioned. At this point, the output floor is still some years away, so I think of that as a -- as biting maybe in 2030. If you want guidance, we would probably stick with the EUR 30 billion impact at that point, but to be fair: We haven't really done this next round of mitigation in terms of portfolio shifts and what have you. So that's still a long way out. Hopefully, that helps, Nicolas, on your questions.
The next question comes from Adam Terelak from Mediobanca.
I have one on capital and one on revenues. I appreciate you don't want to front-run exactly what we're going to look -- what this is going to look like in the short term, but you were on the [ tapes ] this morning discussing higher payout next year than in your original planning. Can you confirm that, that original plan was the plus 50% on the buyback to match the dividend increase? And can you also discuss whether we can look at more regular capital return over the next few years rather than having to wait for full year results each year?
Secondly, on revenues. NII clearly stepped back in Corporate Bank, Private Bank this quarter. That's kind of been guided to, but can you give us some more color about the shape from here and use that to reference your confidence in revenue growth for the group into 2024?
Yes. Thank you, Adam, and thanks for your participation. Look. Let me start on -- briefly again on the capital question. And again I think it's good order to discuss all the details with our regulator first, but I think you're right. And the 50% dividend part, we always said. And we also said that this is quite a good guidance for our past guidance on the share buybacks, so in this regard I think you have a good assumption. And as I just said, I think, with the scope now of the additional EUR 3 billion, obviously we would like and we intend then to start increasing the share buyback already in 2024 beyond that what we already communicated in our previous correspondence, so clearly an acceleration and expansion. That's our goal. And that will focus now -- this is our focus in our discussions with the regulators going forward. With regard to the revenues, I will hand over to James for more details in particular when it comes to NII, but also here, I think, very good messages because the clear jump-off point for 2024 is now the EUR 29 billion in 2023. And You have seen a good development in the third quarter; again a very stable development also, by the way, on the NII side in both Corporate Bank and Private Bank. We see that momentum going forward into Q4, and therefore, there is a high confidence in delivering a EUR 29 billion number for the full year 2023. On top of that, and I think we referred to that in our previous calls already, the geopolitical environment, the economic environment is something where, at the end of the day, the advice which is asked by the clients on the private bank side, on the corporate banking side, also with regard to our investment banking services, is increasing and increasing. And therefore, we also said in our prepared remarks a 40% increase in mandated deals from the corporates in these first 9 months of 2023 versus the same time period of 2022 is just one signal how much we are actually -- [ and see ] the momentum with our corporate clients around the world to think about how to best position in these geopolitical situations where we are. And hence, in particular also the investments which we are doing on the corporate side; in the investment banking, on the advisory side; the investments which we have done on the wealth management side; now the finalization of the Numis transaction will grow also the non-NII business in '24 a lot. And therefore, seeing the stability actually also in the NII business in '23, plus the growth we see from the advisory, our clear goal is to show a 2024 revenue number of EUR 30 billion. Regarding the composition, James will outline further, but we can see a momentum which is simply unbroken.
So Adam, a couple things on your comments. Well, let me start with the comment that our group NII number is a very noisy line. And we've talked about it before, the impact of the FX swap book, and therefore the rate differential between euros and dollars, plays a role here, as does hedging results and other parts of the treasury piece, which is why it's actually, I think, more instructive to look at the net interest income and the margins of the businesses, especially PB and CB. Now there we show you margins that were actually reasonably stable quarter-on-quarter, some pressure in PB -- in CB, rather, but interestingly, this quarter, the principal drivers were not the deposit margins. There was again noise even at that level around mortgage hedging, for example, in the Private Bank; the excess of deposits over loans impacting the margin in the Corporate Bank, so things outside of the deposit margins. That difference was about 130 million if you take the 2 businesses together. We think Q4 will be about the same level, so flat to that, really as deposit margins come in a little bit, but some of this other noise kind of clears through the system. So as Christian says, we feel good about the trajectory looking forward 1, even 2, quarters in those 2 businesses. And that, of course, supports our view going into 2024. I think the other thing, just briefly, you mentioned on the timing of the buyback and distribution announcements, it's a fair point. It would take a lot of pressure off us and the supervisors to do this more frequently. And let's see is the short version. We want to -- the nice thing is, if you split it out over the year, you can be a little bit more dynamic to the market environment and conditions. On the other hand, I think -- and to some degree, shareholders have sought the greatest degree of confidence as early as possible. So we're going to need to balance those 2 things, but I could certainly envisage multiple requests in the year going forward.
The next question comes from Chris Hallam from Goldman Sachs.
Just 2 from my side. First, on cost, could you give us a sense of the size of the inflation headwinds you were able to offset in underlying costs in the quarter and maybe also where you'd expect to end the year given the Q4 one-offs you flagged and how that sets the business up heading into 2024? And then secondly, maybe looking a bit further out to 2025: Obviously the revenue momentum is working out in your favor, as you just discussed, but there's also still a disconnect between your targets on cost-to-income ratio and return -- tangible equity for 2025 and the latest consensus, so just what are the main moving parts over the next 2 years that give you confidence on reiterating those 2025 targets?
Yes. Potentially I start on your second part. And obviously James shall add. Look. On the difference in the 2025 targets, I think it comes from both sides; number one, further increasing revenue line James just outlined; and the 2024 part, our confidence in the EUR 30 billion in 2024. And obviously we see that momentum also going then into the next year, in 2025. And in particular, in 2025, as we always said before, we have another NII tailwind actually in the Private Bank which is not to be underestimated, so therefore, on the revenue side, Chris, further growth to be seen, clearly. On the cost side, I'm really confident because -- you know that we have given the goal of 2.5 billion, 2 billion already with our IDD in 2022. You know that this 2 billion is actually based on our so-called key deliverables, i.e., the Germany optimization, the front to back, the technology architecture, the infrastructure efficiencies, real estate savings and so on. And there we really have a high confidence to deliver these 2 billion based on all the structural work which we have done over the last 18 months since the IDD, and we can see progress every quarter. On the remaining 500 million, obviously we are working diligently but also there good progress. And we discussed with you the reduction-in-force program in April. We have actioned on that. We have 900 reduction delivering more than 100 million of annualized savings now, from now on, starting. James said it this morning and rightly so: We have additional measures which are now in execution and in flight that will further reduce our workforce. By the way, also with regard to the overall remediation which we have seen over the last years, we can see now that -- we think we have seen the peak in our workforce and we will further reduce. And this, if you want to mention it, reduction in force 2.0 will be, from a size and number, bigger than the reduction we have seen in April, 1.0. So that is the next part. And in line with our goal of achieving this additional 500 million, obviously we are doing other things like third-party spending, whether it's [ consultant ], marketing spending, which will save us a meaningful number also in 2024 versus 2023. We are obviously -- also with the peak in workforce which we have seen, we are obviously very selective and cautious also when it comes to new hirings. And in this regard, we have very good sight on the EUR 2.5 billion. That, with the growing revenue number which I just outlined, we are in full confidence that we can achieve the 10%; or what we always wanted to do and where we still stand by to, actually exceed the 10% RoTE in 2025.
So Chris, just on your inflation question and perhaps a little bit more on the targets. So inflation, it depends very much on what you're looking at, compensation costs; elements of noncompensation, for example, software. There can be quite varied impacts, but I would say we're facing across the world probably 4% to 5% inflation on average in both comp and noncomp costs that we need to work to offset. So far, I think we've been quite successful in both line items. You need to work very hard on workforce composition. As Christian outlined, we've got a lot of measures underway there, whether it's internalization, location strategy or just managing with discipline across the company. And then on the noncomp, you've really got to focus on demand. And that's where I think the -- passing some of the -- what I'll call the inflection points that we've been passing, whether that's technology implementations, whether that's control investment remediation, it does give us more flexibility to manage the demand side there. And so that gives us some comfort. If I think to run rates, which I think was embedded in the second part of your question. We've talked over the course of the year about run rates, maybe made it too complex for you, but we're trying to manage in that 4.95 billion to, let's say, 5 billion per quarter in adjusted cost range. We've had some pressure this year not just on inflation, which I think we've been successful offsetting, but also some of the investments that we've been making. In the fourth quarter, we may have some additional sort of unexpected costs associated with Postbank remediation. That may push us up closer to or perhaps slightly above the 5 billion level in Q4. With all of that baked in, including the additional Numis costs -- I think we talked about [ 4.975 ] back in July but overall a continued sort of evidence of, I think, discipline and control across the company. And that would represent a good step-off also into '24, where as you know the goal that we have and Christian just outlined is to continue to crystallize these cost savings measures in order to manage overall flat, notwithstanding inflation and investments.
The next question comes from Anke Reingen from RBC.
I have 2 questions. First is on the backlog following the Postbank IT migration. Can you talk a bit about the implications on costs? I think you just mentioned it, and revenues near term. And is there also risk, as in it could potentially delay the targeted cost savings? And if you can please talk about -- I mean if you can, about what we might expect in terms of potential actions by BaFin. Could it be like fines, operational risks or similar? And then secondly, on the NII -- or the headwinds to your revenues in the Corporate Bank, the higher funding costs, should we expect you increase the deposit collection further in Q4 and expect further headwinds? And is this related to TLTRO maturities? If you can -- I mean I guess it offsets the benefit of the higher rates, so how much more of a headwind should we see there?
Thanks, Anke. I'll try to be brief. Look. And we don't see a revenue impact of the Postbank integration or operational backlog issues, and we wouldn't necessarily expect one going forward. Obviously we want to work hard to put these issues behind us and sort of pivot to a very different customer experience. And that's the focus of the management team there. You've seen a cost of -- a provisioning cost impact in Q3 that could also extend into Q4, but ultimately we would expect to get that back as really we get back on track in terms of the collections activity, where there's been some diversion of the operational staff. So call it 0 or close to 0 in those 2 lines when all is said and done. On expenses, it's probably been in the high single digits in Q3 in terms of the remediation costs; and if you kind of look to that in Q4, somewhere between 30 million to 35 million of incremental spend on the remediation, but we would expect that to tail off relatively quickly in 2024 as we put the operational issues behind us and, frankly, invest in automation and improved capabilities going forward. So we feel it will be a temporary impact. As it relates to sort of crystallizing the long-term benefits of the UNITY project, no change there. We're at work in app decommissioning and the various elements of the project that, particularly on the technology side, we're going to drive the benefits. Too early to make any comments on fines, frankly. We're working very closely with the BaFin, collaboratively with them and the monitor. And I think our interests are very well aligned, that we want to put the backlog behind us and cease any disruption to our clients. On the liquidity and funding costs, it's interesting. I mentioned earlier this excess of liabilities over assets in the Corporate Bank that can sometimes be a drag. The interesting sort of corollary there is we haven't yet seen a benefit in the NIM of loan growth. And so for the Corporate Bank in particular and then at the group level, we would benefit from putting these, the deposits, to use. We're looking forward and believe that we should start to get some momentum in terms of loan growth going forward, and hence that imbalance can begin to help us. As it relates to TLTRO, you've seen that we've prefunded some of the maturities, the December maturities. And so TLTRO is becoming a less and less impactful sort of part of our overall balance sheet and funding profile. Yes, there is a little bit of a drag going into '24 coming [ on ] that, but that at this point is in sort of low -- very low double digits per quarter in the coming several quarters.
Let me just add one point, Anke, to your first question. And James is absolutely right that we don't expect an impact on our revenues. Just to support that: In Q3 '23, versus the previous year Q3, we increased in particular the German private banking business by 16%. And I think this is another evidence actually that from a revenue point of view it is, so far, not affecting us. And I also don't expect that. And I have to say what the people in the Private Bank are doing in Germany is a fantastic job actually, a, to make sure that we reduce the backlog and we are doing really good progress; and secondly, actually take care of our clients. So really good job done, and I think it's evident in the third quarter.
The next question comes from Máté Nemes from UBS.
I have 2 questions, please. The first one, I wanted to go back to the EUR 3 billion potential additional capital freed up in the next 2 years as a result of Basel IV and RWA reduction. I was just wondering if you could give us a sense. To what extent do you expect actually to deploy some of that additional capital into the business organically or perhaps inorganically? And if so, what are the areas where you see perhaps the most immense and clear opportunities for that redeployment? And I'm mindful that you mentioned that a significant proportion is obviously for distribution. So that's the first question. And the second question is on the Corporate Bank. And I just wanted to pick up on the comment from you, James, on so far you haven't put those additional deposits into work, yet we are seeing a very small uptick in loans in Corporate Bank. So the combination of the 2 suggests perhaps you have somewhat of a better outlook in terms of deployment and new lending. If you could just share your thoughts on that.
Yes, Máté. Thank you very much for the question, and it's a great question. We have spent some time looking at this actually. And I want to give you a little bit of sort of color looking at the last 7 quarters of where the capital has gone. So on average, we've generated about 27 basis points of capital each quarter over the last year and change. And this is what's interesting: About 1/3 of that has gone to support the distributions that we've been making, so far, the EUR 1.75 billion. About 1/3 has gone into the regulatory changes, and about 1/3 has gone into the ratio improvement up to now close to 14%. Almost none has gone into the business, so far. And one of the reasons we think this sort of inflection point is so important is, first of all, we think we can step up the profitability. So the 27 basis points doesn't, by any means, have to be the cap in terms of what we can generate, but I think there is scope to increase the business deployment beyond where -- what we've been doing the past couple of years, especially as that reg build falls away. And we're at a ratio level now that is entirely comfortable for us in terms of buffers, so there is capacity both for business deployment and for significant distribution increases. Now to your point about Corporate Bank. Yes, loan growth in the past year and change has been quite slow across both businesses; and we like to think that there's again some signs of life. You mentioned a small increase, about 1 billion, in the quarter in loans in the Corporate Bank. We've been waiting for that to come. We'd like to see it. And we think we may see it already in the fourth quarter but then extending into 2024. And with our loan-to-deposit, the ratio, now again below 80%, we have the capacity to support loan growth both from a capital and from a funding perspective, so we do think we're turning the corner in terms of the ability to redeploy in both of those senses. In Private Bank, perhaps a little bit more sluggish: As you know, we've made a decision not to kind of emphasize mortgage lending in Germany both given the market environment and given capital requirements, but we think we have capacity to grow margin lending in wealth management as that comes back to grow unsecured consumer lending, so that may take a little bit longer to come back. But also in that business there's potential to grow loans to redeploy capital. Lastly, and this came up in a recent conference, we are careful in how we manage the capital that's committed to the Investment Bank. So those are portfolios that, while there is opportunity to grow within our risk appetite, we are careful to manage the capital to that business, devoted to that business within constraints that we set. And so while we think there are attractive lending opportunities there, we're going to be cautious about growing, especially in an environment where there is still some uncertainty in the credit environment. So look. Short version is real capacity now for deployment in the businesses while we're in a very different environment in terms of distribution potential.
The next question comes from Stuart Graham from Autonomous Research.
I had 2, please, both on capital. First, can I just press a little bit more on the RWA optimization measures, please? I hear what you say on the [indiscernible] factors, but you've been optimizing for a long time. And I guess I was surprised to find out [indiscernible]. How do you think about the opportunity to invest that EUR 3 billion of extra capital in growing the IB? On the one hand, [indiscernible] Q3 or [indiscernible] [ ex capital of our consensus '25 ] leverage ratio. [ I guess it's ] 4.6%. [ And I guess ] you've got a lot of scope [indiscernible], please.
So Stuart, it's James. You were cutting in and out a little bit, but I'll go with what I believe the questions were. And you may need to follow up. On RWA optimization, to be honest: So are we, surprised. We've been, I'd like to think, at the more sophisticated end of this type of balance sheet management over the years. And to find more opportunity is, on the one hand, encouraging; on the other hand, suggests that there was something left on the table in the past. Now the securitization piece is a step change in what we're looking at and willing to do, but we've -- as we've talked about before, we still like the economics of the securitization. So we would estimate, for example, that the revenue-to-RWA relationship of the securitization we did this quarter was about 1.5%, maybe 1.6%. And so we can redeploy that capital at better sort of equity margins, call it, than that, so there is still more to do. And as I mentioned earlier, as the beta environment improves more and more, we see scope to continue optimization. Of course, Basel III is entirely new, so the work on the models there, the visibility into the impact of hedging strategies, that's also new, so it's a bit of an ongoing story. The redeployment I talked about a moment ago really to Máté's question. Again there is scope to support growth in the businesses, but frankly, the extra capital that we now have doesn't really change the growth potential of the businesses and won't change our risk appetite. As you know, we've been disciplined about risk appetite. And we also intend to be different -- disciplined around capital allocation, as I mentioned earlier, especially recognizing that that's a focus of attention around the Investment Bank. And finally, on the leveraged balance sheet: We see them as sort of moving a little bit in tandem, so as our CET1 ratio goes up, so too is the leverage ratio. And while there's a bit more flexibility in managing the leveraged balance sheet, we think we can very comfortably remain in the mid- to high 4s over time and, if you like, optimize the revenue footprint of that leveraged balance sheet, yes. So hopefully, those answered your questions even though there was a little bit of signal challenge.
Apologies for that. So you do see -- to the extent the U.S. banks are pulling back because of Basel IV, you do see an opportunity in Investment Bank? Or you don't...
Well, what I'd say is the high -- put it this way. The higher CET1 capital base or total capital base supports a leveraged balance sheet that's a little bit larger than it has been historically, but I do not see us changing dramatically our strategies, put it that way, in terms of leverage deployment. I would think that on a comparative basis we've been on the more conservative end in terms of the deployment of our leveraged balance sheet. And I don't see that changing dramatically, Stuart, even in light of some of the changes that you're seeing in the U.S.
And Stuart, to James's point, with no dramatic changes. I think, if you talk to Ram Nayak, he has a clear strategy where he wants to be in Europe but also in the U.S. And that -- where he wants to be in the U.S. was already for him in the plan before the potential changes to the Basel requirements for the U.S. banks, so I agree with James. I think for us it is good, on the one hand, that there is more capacity, but the strict adherence to risk-return and to our capital allocation in this regard will not change. We want to grow our profitability. Now we have a bit more capacity to do this and we will do this, but we will not leave, a, our risk appetite; nor our clear reward expectations we have from the businesses.
The next question comes from Tom Hallett from KBW.
I suppose one of the debates for investors has been around the sustainability of profits and, within that, what normalized trading calls look like. And if we take this year, it looks like your FIC revenues could land around the 8 billion mark, with consensus expecting something similar over the next couple of years, but this is 2.5 billion higher than what we saw in 2018 and '19. And I appreciate the rate environment is very different. There's been a bit of balance sheet growth there as well, but what makes you confident that the 8 billion is sustainable given pretty well-documented normalization of the wider industry? And then secondly, on government taxes, it's been a key theme for the sector over the last few months. And again I appreciate the impacts on you will have been limited, so far, but do you see any risk for Germany to follow suit?
Thank you for your questions. Let me start. Look. What makes me confident on the FIC side that this kind of 2.5 billion higher than 3 or 4 years ago is something sustainable, it's 3, 4 points, but number one, the healing of the bank. I mean this is the most important if you talk to our institutional clients but also to the corporate clients. And I cannot even tell you -- and that was our focus, the transformation, the healing and, with that, obviously the rating upgrades which we have received from all the major rating agencies. That resulted in a completely different way how we can deal with our clients and that a lot of clients actually returned to Deutsche Bank. And to be honest: We are still in the documentations of clients who have returned after the last increase and improvement of the rating agencies because -- you know how long it takes to get the documentation [ if there are ] agreements, right? And in this regard, I can still see the benefits from that, so the healing of the bank is the -- or one of the key reasons. Number two, I think it's the focus which we have given ourselves and in particular Ram has done in the FIC business, in the trading business. It was exactly right to focus on that where we are strong from a regional point of view, starting with Europe then obviously going into our Emerging Markets franchise, also covering Asia, but also investing very focused in the U.S. And Ram has a clear plan how to grow also our FIC business in the U.S. over the next 12 to 18 months, and he put the right investments into that. Number three, it's the front-to-end reengineering of our processes in FIC. Also that is obviously which is not only making us more efficient, but at the end of the day, front-to-end always results in one thing. This is client experience for our clients. And with that, obviously we make ourselves more attractive to deal with us. So I think it's the overall healing of the bank but also the real focus and reengineering of the platform Ram has done to the FIC business which makes me comfortable that the 8 billion which we have seen, so far, is a very good number to actually plan for the future and, in my view if I look at the -- at his plan, to even increase from there. Nevertheless, we always said we even want to make the investment banking business more balanced and therefore the investments into the O&A businesses. And also, in the prepared remarks, we said how stable actually within the FIC business the financing part is. It's 35% of the FIC business. And that is coming through, year by year, I think, with a very good and solid underwriting scheme. Regarding government taxes, look. It's always hard for me to judge what is coming, but on this end in Germany, on this side in Germany, I'm very calm. We have clear statements that these kind of excess taxes, I think, is not supported, in particular not by our finance minister. There is really no active discussion on this one, and therefore it is for me a non-topic.
The next question comes from Andrew Lim from Societe Generale.
So firstly, on capital, just one clarification here. It doesn't seem like you're prepared to increase the EUR 8 billion overall capital return envelope, but it does seem that you're more confident on reaching that 50% payout sooner rather than later. Is that the best way to think about it? So that EUR 3 billion capital, that's being released as it were. That doesn't really become additive to the EUR 8 billion. And then with that, if we look at your actions to optimize capital and RWAs -- I guess that reduces risk weight density. And is that the way you see it? And so that being the case, maybe your guidance on the output floor there and your comments earlier are that we should maybe stick to the EUR 30 billion RWA impact there. And just very lastly, on the Corporate Bank NII, it does seems like the largest impact there is from the increase in liquidity reserve costs. What's your expectation there for how that should develop going forward, please?
So Andrew, the answer to the first question is no. That's not the correct way to think about it. So think about it this way: We had a capital commitment to shareholders of EUR 8 billion at a point in time where our outlook and our step-off were weaker than they are today. What we're not able or willing to say at this point is how much of that increment is going to come out to shareholders and how soon. We obviously owe you an answer on that in time. And we'll work through that internally in our capital planning and then with supervisors, but no, we would see it as incremental to the EUR 8 billion. In terms of optimization, it's complex just because, at a point in time, we're going to need to optimize around the output floor. That's not something that we've really done. Ironically, the impetus there would be to take on higher-risk-density assets and so sort of optimize in that way. And actually it goes a little bit also to Stuart's question. The -- what regulation asks you to do now is run this complex optimization algorithm across all of those resources in time, so it's advanced approaches RWA. It will be standardized approaches RWA and then the leveraged balance sheet. And we're going to need to find the optimal use of the balance sheet under all 3 of those tests. In the case of the standardized, we have until the -- until 2030 when we think the output floor bites. I wouldn't expect -- just on the CB NII piece, I wouldn't expect that to change sequentially in the next couple of quarters, again a little bit depending on whether -- on how the loan and deposit sort of trajectory for the business go from here. We'd like to think we can continue to grow deposits and grow the loan balances, but it's the relationship between the two that really drives the question of the liquidity funding in the CB business.
The next question comes from Kian Abouhossein from JPMorgan.
The first question is related to P&L sensitivity, if you can -- clearly you're hitting the gas pedal right now and driving revenues, and you're doing really well in that respect. And it looks like you're indicating flattish costs. If you [ have to hit ] the brake due to market conditions changing, can you talk about the flexibility of costs as you indicate there's a lot of stickiness, there's inflation in costs? And I just try to understand your flexibility in that respect, how we should think about the element of cost reduction in a different environment and how you model that internally. And then secondly, the question is regarding your remarks on cost of risk. You mentioned model changes and improved macro forecasts leading to reversals in Stage 1 and 2 provisions. Can you help me understand what's driving this more optimistic outlook, please? And if you could talk a little bit about the health of large corporates and Mittelstand in particular clearly in Europe -- sorry, in Germany.
Thanks, Kian. Sure. Well, look. We've talked about this over the years, the P&L sensitivity. And I'd like to think, in fact I'm confident, that both sides of that equation have improved over the last several years. So start with the revenue side. As our revenue mix has shifted over time, I think our revenue sensitivity has declined dramatically and not just because more of the revenues are coming from the businesses that we describe as more stable but also because the revenue composition in the Investment Bank, I think, has firmed up as well, and our market position, as Christian has outlined. So I think that revenue sensitivity is lower than you might think. And by the way, you also see us take relatively conservative decisions, whether that's about risk appetite or on our interest rate risk management. So we manage that. It's not just an accident. And then on the costs side, I have said over the years that less is -- of the cost base is variable than I would like it to be. I think that equation is also changing for the better. Let's start with just the investment profile. We -- as we shift from, I'll call them, nondiscretionary investments, investments that needed to be made in technology and in controls, to a more discretionary profile, we can hit the brakes on those investments. And the other thing is that, as we get deeper and deeper into the structural cost saves that Christian outlined, more of the cost base ends up being variable. And that can be variable compensation, but it can also be other elements of the cost base. So short version: I think we're improving both aspects of that equation, Kian, relative to where we were a few years ago. On the cost of risk, just -- and the detail there. We had EUR 100 million net on the Stage 1 and 2. Actually what that was, was a EUR 100 million model benefit associated with the PD, LGDs in the new wholesale and retail models; plus about EUR 30 million of FLI, forward-looking indicator, benefits, offset by about EUR 30 million of -- in Stage 1 and 2 of portfolio changes, including sort of internal ratings and that sort of thing. Now why did the FLI improve? The point in time is always hard to remember, but the last time we booked this on a quarterly basis was in July, where the outlook for the soft landing, particularly in the U.S., was actually less optimistic than it became through the third quarter, so what you're seeing is a bit of a lag effect as to where things stood at that time.
And Kian, on your last question, I think, on the German corporates, large corporates; and Mittelstand. Look. We're observing a very stable situation in terms of their creditworthiness. They benefit hugely from the resilience. I think I said at -- in one of the previous calls, if I compare the situation of German Mittelstand's clients with 15 years ago, we have a capital ratio, we have a liquidity ratio and liquidity position of those clients which is in much better shape than 15 years ago. After the global financial crisis, they all worked on themselves, so I think, despite a no-growth situation in Germany and -- we can really attest a very resilient portfolio. And hopefully, with growth coming back in '24, albeit very low growth in '24 and -- we then will also see that there is obviously growth coming back into those clients. So for the time being, also from our rating downgrades versus upgrades, no negative or no deterioration to that what we have seen 3 or 6 months ago.
If I could just briefly follow up on the cost flexibility. And I know I've asked this question in the past, but you're trading at 0.3x tangible book value for a reason. And that's a reflection of the concern that in a different scenario you will not be able to manage cost [ to some ] operating leverage. Let's put it this way. So can you quantify and give us more confidence in your cost stability and managing your cost stability in a different scenario?
Look. Let me start and James will follow up. First of all, I do believe that it's most important for our credibility to achieve -- that we achieve those cost targets which we have given to the market, and we will do so. That's, therefore, I ran you through the structural cost savings and that what we now put on top actually in order to get to the EUR 2.5 billion. Secondly, of course, if this would happen, you have 3 or 4 layers of costs where we can very quickly reduce the spending. That is the variable comp, which means with regard to investments. Obviously we are reviewing those investments on a quarterly basis, also adhering obviously to the profile on the business side and whether the performance is the right one. I think we have a very good monitoring in place on this one. Secondly, yes, there is always the flexibility on the variable comp, which we obviously would adjust to the performance and to the revenue performance. I think we have also shown that in the past, that we are able to do this; and we will do this. So this is obviously, if you look at our variable comp, that is not an insignificant number which we could reduce, like for the CTB, i.e., change the bank, investments. And then you have those items where Rebecca is going actively after already now but which also plays into this one, which is everything on third-party costs, which means also consultancy, which means marketing. And easily in this regard from a flexibility point of view, Kian, you are in a very high 3-digit-million number. And in this regard, I would say this bank has clearly the ability to react, but most important for us is obviously to, first of all, deliver that what we promised to you. And this is the EUR 2.5 billion.
The next question comes from Timo Dums from DZ BANK.
I've got 2, please. 1 is on Q4, and the other question is on O&A. So starting with Q4, maybe you could provide some specifics on the one-offs you flagged for the current quarter. So a quantification maybe on the restitution of the national resolution fund and the year-end adjustments, tax adjustments that you mentioned. That would be helpful, so this would be my question number one. And my second question is on the outlook on O&A. So again a strong recovery here and so what's your view on the last quarter? Should we expect another pickup despite seasonal patterns? And what are your expectations looking further down the road?
Thanks, Timo. Briefly, on the second question, yes, we would see a continued improvement sequentially in O&A. And we would look to a much more significant improvement going in then to 2024. So we're optimistic there. On the Q4 one-offs, I -- why don't I meet you halfway? On the DTA, I would expect -- and here it's a different geography from last year where the DTA related to the U.S. I would size it today at about 500 million of opportunity in the tax line, potentially larger. It all depends on our forward-looking view of profitability in the U.K. entities and jurisdiction going forward. That's to the positive. The Numis goodwill, it's too early to give an exact number given we're going through the purchase price allocation process sort of as we speak, but to give you a ballpark, I would expect us to book about 250 million in -- as a nonoperating cost around that Numis goodwill. The numbers that I can't really guide you on today would be, one, the restitution payment to the upside. And then as you all know, restructuring and severance and legal, litigation items are always subject to some uncertainty. And so as we get more visibility, if we get an opportunity, we'll give you an update on that. I'd like to think the net of those 4 things is biased to the positive, but we have to wait and see how it all plays out.
The next question comes from Giulia Aurora Miotto from Morgan Stanley.
So the first one, on CRE, commercial real estate. And if I compare your level of provisioning, especially on the U.S. side, with what U.S. banks have been seeing, so far, this quarter, it seems like you have -- your provisions are lower. I was wondering. What gives you the confidence of these relatively lower provisions in this market specifically, especially for U.S. office, which seems particularly challenged? And then on Numis, I know it's early days. The acquisition closed 13th of October, I believe, but I was wondering if you have any early thoughts that you would like to share now that this is part of Deutsche Bank. And then a quick technical one, DTAs. With all these DTAs being written back, what's the benefit for the tax rate in the coming years?
Thanks, Giulia. So I'll try to -- well, starting with CRE. It's just hard to say because we have no insight into our competitors' portfolios. And so we can tell you what we think of ours. And as we've said sort of consistently from the start of this cycle, we think we have a high-quality portfolio. It's -- to the extent it's concentrated -- obviously there's an office exposure, but it's concentrated in class A, strong sponsors and what have you. And what we're happy to share this time in the appendix material is, frankly, the experience that we've had. So now we're sort of 4, 5 quarters into this cycle in commercial real estate. And we think that the relationship between the loan modifications and the expected credit losses that arise from that speak to the quality of the portfolio. Now that, we're, call it, halfway through that, but you can see that, if trends continue or even deteriorate a little bit, this should be an entirely manageable situation [ for that ]. Coverage is hard to measure on a comparative basis, but we think we're taking provisions and collateral -- allowance and collateral together. We think we're sort of reasonably in line with the peers. On Numis, we're very excited about the transaction. I mean the first few days and the process with the Deutsche Numis organization have been very successful. Both the Deutsche U.K. corporate finance team going into Numis and the relationship with the Numis leadership and staff is off to a great start. And the client feedback has been extremely positive ever since the announcement, so it's early days in terms of revenue production, if you like, but we're very encouraged by what we see, so far. Ultimately, on the DTA: It doesn't really affect the tax rate, so you should expect us to advise on an effective tax rate continuing to be in the sort of 29% to 30% range going forward, always a little bit of variation in that, but the DTAs are one-off. And I would think of it as complete, if you like, this year when we revalue the U.K. tax characteristics.
The next question comes from Amit Goel from Barclays.
So just coming back on the [ cost base ]. Obviously you've reiterated the conviction in terms of getting down to that kind of 18.5 billion, 19 billion type level. I'm just curious. I mean I think, unless exchange -- the exit rate for this year is a bit higher than the level achieved this year -- or will be, so I mean, when should we expect to see those costs coming out? So would that be more in the second half of '24 or into '25? Or could it be sooner? And then secondly, just related to that, I mean, if costs do prove to be a bit more sticky and -- are you seeing potential distribution of the RWA efficiency savings as the other or another lever to help get to that 10% RoTE target or above? Or are these kind of just 2 very independent things? And then just one follow-up. I guess you just mentioned, obviously, on PB the revenue tailwind in 2025. I was just wondering if you can potentially size that or give us an indication of how much you're expecting from that.
Sure. Thanks, Amit. Look. Actually the middle part of your question is a really good one. The RWA and the RoTE are in fact linked. And ironically, you start to have a denominator problem and therefore a strong incentive to distribute capital in order not to have the RoTE dragged down by a higher tangible equity. In fact, you're seeing that already this year. The biggest part of the RoTE decline in the third quarter versus last year was just higher capital. The tax rate played a big impact as well, but leaving that aside, it's higher capital, so we are incentivized to push out capital. If I think about the exit rates, yes, the [ 5 ] is a little higher than we'd like it to be. And to your point, to get to a full year number of adjusted costs in line with this year, we would need to start bringing it down in the second half, but look. If we're traveling in the [ 4.9 to 5 ] area next year, in each of the 4 quarters, we think we're doing okay. And we will -- to Kian's earlier questions, we think we've got more levers to help to drive that going forward. On the tailwind into '25, I -- this is some distance ahead, but I would quantify it as 200 million to 300 million just from the deposit hedges kind of rolling over. So a nice tailwind for that business, for the PB business, going forward.
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Jeremy Sigee from BNP Paribas.
Just a couple of quick numbers questions, please. The expectation was that you'd be getting to just over EUR 400 billion of RWAs in 2025. If I adjust that for the undershoot today, the extra savings, the Basel IV, it would come out more like EUR 370 billion. Is that a fair expectation, or is it likely to be higher than that with redeployment? So that's my first question. And then different numbers question on NII: You've talked a bit about deposit NII pressure in 4Q. If rates stay at this level and beta gets to its sort of medium-term resting place and also term assets reprice fully, what would we be subtracting and adding to NII? And I'm particularly focused on the Corporate Bank and the Private Bank, so just those 2 big numbers. If we fully did the beta and fully repriced any term assets that take time, what would we be adding and subtracting?
So Jeremy, on the RWA, I would -- in brief. I would anchor off of EUR 380 billion rather than EUR 370 billion. So the walk was from, call it, EUR 420 billion, which was the earlier consensus number for the end of '25, which we said was pretty close. We took that down to EUR 405 billion with the EUR 15 billion. And now the EUR 10 billion and the EUR 15 billion improvement should get you to about 480 -- EUR 380 billion, I'm sorry. That doesn't account for the redeployment, so we'll see. If that number still holds, there may be more opportunity to redeploy than we had originally anticipated, which is why it's early days in the capital plan. In terms of fully phased in, I'll be honest. I haven't thought about it in the -- in just the 2 deposit books. And as I say, there's a lot of noise in the NII number, but in round numbers, we've -- on a reported basis, we've held steady at [ 13.5 ]. Some of -- most of the NII upside that we saw this year actually went into the noninterest revenue lines. If I look to a normalized level, I -- you'd like to see it, frankly, at [ 13.5 ] or better, especially going into '25 and beyond, given, in the answer to Amit's question, the uplift that you get in both businesses from the deposit hedges moving. So I'd -- whatever the dip is next year, hopefully, small, we think that we're sort of currently traveling at a baseline that's a pretty good baseline to grow from into '25 and '26. And that's before all of the noninterest revenue upside that we see and that Christian went through in his earlier comments. So that underscores, if you like, the optimism we have for the revenues next year and beyond. And we don't see any reason why the compound annual growth rate target would actually step back significantly from here over the next 2 years, so [ 3.5 to 4.5 ] is something that you'd like to [ see ], I think, we can achieve from this point; or even better.
There are no further questions at this time. I hand back to Silke Szypa for closing comments.
Thank you very much for your questions. If you have any further inquiries, please reach out to the investor relations department. And we say thank you very much. Take care and goodbye.
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