Mercedes-Benz Group AG
XETRA:MBG
Earnings Call Analysis
Q4-2023 Analysis
Mercedes-Benz Group AG
Navigating through a challenging year marked by supply constraints with a significant impact on sales and margins, the company managed to achieve a slight 1% revenue increase with a commendable adjusted EBIT of EUR 14 billion. Adjusted return on sales also remained robust at 12.6%, underlying the company's capacity to uphold profitability even through a pressured economic landscape.
The narrative of change showcases an impressive 46% rise in the average selling price (ASP) since 2019, punctuated by another 2% increase in 2023. Cost management efforts paid off, with a 7% reduction in headcount and a 16% decrease in fixed costs since 2019, propelling the organization toward a 20% cost reduction target by 2025 despite facing inflationary headwinds. Capital discipline is evident through a 41% cut in property, plant, and equipment (PPE) cash flow, balancing investment in future platforms like MB.OS with a commitment to reduce investment spending by 20% relative to 2019 levels later in the decade.
A strong financial position enabled earnings per share (EPS) to reach EUR 13.50, reflecting the company's ability to consistently return value to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, highlighting a stable and confident outlook for investor returns.
Looking ahead to 2024, the company anticipates easing supply chain bottlenecks, though these are expected to persist and impact the sales, especially in the first half of the year. A prudent sales guidance predicts markets in Europe to present a mixed picture, while subdued sentiment in China warrants caution. A solid demand momentum is noticed in the U.S. Overall, 2024 sales are projected to maintain at the previous year's level, with an xEV share aimed between 19% to 21%. The guidance for margins lies between 10% to 12%, with cash conversion expected to be healthy, at 0.8 to 1. The group's revenues and EBIT are projected to be on par or slightly below the levels of 2023, indicating strategic focus on financial stability and continued investments in transformation, despite the anticipated industry headwinds.
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Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. A warm welcome to our annual results conference of Mercedes-Benz Group. We're very happy to have you with us virtually on the screens as well as the media representatives here with us in the room at the Global Training Center in Stuttgart. My name is Steffen Hoffmann. I'm heading Investor Relations and Treasury.
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, also from my side, and a warm welcome to the annual results conference of Mercedes-Benz in 2023. My name is Willem Spelten, and I'm Head of Corporate Communications here at Mercedes-Benz. We are presenting our business results today to analysts, investors and the media. In total, our presentations will take a bit more than 1 hour, and you can follow our stream with simultaneous translation into German and Chinese. On site, you can access translation tool. Germany is on channel 1, English is on Channel 2, and Chinese is on channel 3.
And of course, after the presentation by Harald and Ola, you will have the chance for Q&A. We will have 2 Q&As, one starting with the analysts and investor community, the second one for the media representatives.
And both sessions will be webcasted on our corporate website. The annual results conference ends after these 2 Q&A sessions approximately at 12:30 p.m. Central European Time. And now I would like to welcome our speakers today on stage, our CEO, Ola Kallenius; and our CFO, Harald Wilhelm.
Thank you, Steffen and Willem, and good morning, everybody, and welcome again to our annual results conference 2023. We had set out an ambitious plan for 2023. And as you will see in this presentation, we are delivering a very, very solid result, and this in spite of the macro environment around the world that is challenging and remain so.
On this first point, I want to take the opportunity to thank the whole Mercedes-Benz team around the world. We have team members in, I think, more than 150 countries men and women that are dedicated to this brand, dedicated to this company and it's really their effort that has helped us deliver such good results.
So let's have a peak and look at the numbers. Very much like 2022, you can see that we are performing on a solid and high level, but what stands out with the numbers of 2023, and Harald will go into more detail of that, is the free cash flow number and the resulting net industrial liquidity from that strong cash flow number, which is, of course, a combination of earnings but also effective working capital management.
And if I then take that one step further and look at what have we done at Mercedes to be able to produce these types of numbers. I mentioned the macro environment is challenging, higher interest rates, the economic growth in China, reaching a certain maturity and not the dynamism that we maybe had in the years proceeding. But in that environment, we're pushing forward with executing our strategy.
We grew our battery electric vehicle sales for Mercedes-Benz cars by 73% in 2023, and we launched a whole host of new vehicles. Perhaps the most important vehicle of those, the new E-Class, which is always one of the centerpieces in our product portfolio and it's coming into markets around the world as we speak.
But behind the launches of the vehicles that are in the market now, sits the intense work on the next-generation technologies and the next-generation vehicles. And I'm going to allude more to that later in a strategic priority update of what's going on in the company. But it's not just about product, it's also about the customer and the markets.
We pushed ahead, rolling out our direct sales models and tackled big markets like the U.K., Germany but also overseas markets, Turkey and Malaysia in 2023. If we then look at the sales, we stayed at a solid level. Similar to 2022, it is true that we were affected primarily in the second half of the year by a supply constraint that will carry into the first quarter of 2024 as well, but we are working on this and are confident that with additional measures and additional capacity coming online that we will get out of this trough by the second quarter of this year and will then have the full availability of our products.
If you take a deeper look at the structure of the sales, on the battery electric side, as I mentioned, for Mercedes-Benz cars, we grew by 73%. So the BEV momentum in the segments that we are, which is largely the large segments with the EQS and the EQE derivatives, that was very strong growth. In fact, in a market like the United States, we actually had the highest chair of EVs of any foreign brand.
But also on the plug-in side, whereas it was a little bit lower than in 2022, we have kept our market share on the high-end side of plug-in hybrids and have the strongest position there. And going forward, we think that the plug-in hybrids will stay relevant for many years. And looking at the products that we have launched, the new E-Class, if you have a plug-in with more than 100 kilometers WLTP range, literally, you have an electric car from Monday through Friday when you go to work.
But also in terms of our top-end sales, compared to where we started maybe 3 or 4 years ago, we have come up to quite a high percentage of sales for the top end side already with 16%. That was carried by growth on the G, growth in Miba, growth in AMG while at the same time, defending our very dominant position for the S-Class.
If I switch over to vans, let's see here -- if I switch over to vans, the van division had a standout year in 2023. I really have to applaud the team for what they have been able to achieve, what's underpinning this performance, and I think it's probably a historic high in terms of performance in the van division, is a strong product portfolio.
Starting with the Sprinter at the top, but all the other vehicles that we have in that portfolio as well. And also good market exploitation in a market that was a little bit stronger than on the passenger car side. But literally, where we with the Sprinter van, which is kind of the S-Class of vans in a way, we can see it here next to me. We have a very, very, very strong market share in the relevant markets.
But also here, the van team is not resting on its laurels and kind of saying, okay, this is it, let's just cruise from here on forward. That would be far from the atmosphere that's going on in that division. In fact, van is probably going through the biggest transformation in its history and are now gearing up, investing into the future technologies preparing the VAN.EA architecture, which will be an all electric van architecture, which is only a couple or 3 years away now. So the van team really now is going into a phase of investment and preparing and setting up the division for the future.
So this strong performances of van led to higher sales, as I mentioned, and we're also gradually growing the BEV side of vans. Most important is the launch that we just had at the end of the year and the beginning of next year, which is the next generation of the east eSprinter with a whole range of different battery sizes to cater for such a variety of customer needs.
I don't think there is a business in the auto industry that has such a heterogeneous use of our product. You cannot just single in on one segment, let's say, I make a tailor-made van for just this 1 segment because you would then miss the other adjacent 10, 12, 15 segments. So an electric van has to be also a Jack of all trades. And that's what we're doing with the eSprinter 2.0. It's coming into the market now and the first reception has been very positive.
So if you look at that together and in our CO2 numbers for cars, in this case, for Europe, the passenger car van registrations are also included in our car number here, hence without the van side of it, it would be significant lower still. We were able to reduce the CO2 burden of our vehicle fleet in Europe. We're well within target. This also includes our smart business, which is now moving from being production under the roof of Mercedes and switching to the joint venture that we set up some years ago.
So smart comes into the picture for us through pooling from this point forward. But we have said that in future reporting, because this is a singular view on Europe, we will switch to reporting xEV shares instead on a worldwide basis to cater for the ran up of electrified vehicles around the world and not so much just focusing on Europe.
And with that, I would like to hand over to Harald, who will give us a deep dive on what's going on, on the financials.
Yes. Thank you very much, Ola, and hello to everybody. So let's get started with the cars financials. Well, we could -- I mean, here before the sales, I mean, are flat in 2023, fully in line with the guidance, which we issued at the beginning of the year, despite the supply constraints which, as we commented earlier, had an impact of approximately 5% on sales. And you can easily imagine that the impact on margin in terms of lost margin and out of sequence cost is very substantial.
With this, the revenue are slightly up by 1%. The EBIT adjusted came in at EUR 14 billion, mainly due to higher inflation and supply chain-related costs, and the CFBIT adjusted is meaningfully up by 10%.
Let's have a closer look on the EBIT evolution and the walk in 2023. So the return on sales adjusted stands at a solid 12.6%. That was very much supported by the bucket, I mean volume structure and net pricing, which had a meaningful increase by almost EUR 2 billion. With the volume flat and also the mix flat, you can easily imagine that the net pricing have been pretty healthy. And that was supported by list price increases and escalation updates. And important to note as well that the net pricing even in the fourth quarter continued to be positive and solid.
On the other elements in this bucket, we have a bit of a lower sales and revenues and margins from the sale of goods and services, i.e., the parts by parts business into -- I mean, the BBAC equity. We have a bit of a lower used car business in 2023, but still at a very healthy low 4-digit million level -- million level, excuse me. And we also faced, I mean, on the FX side, a negative, I mean, impact chiefly due to the Turkish lira, however, with the counterpart, I mean, sitting in pricing.
Look at industrial performance at a minus 1.8. What are the main effects mean here? Tailwinds from lower raw materials and improved manufacturing cost, however, outweighed by higher inflation charges and supply chain-related costs, which are the main reason for the lower profitability in the third and in the fourth quarter.
Looking at the selling expenses, minus EUR 200 million. I mean, we have, on the one side, lower marketing expenses. On the other side, from the shift of the direct sales model, the agent ramification comes in this bucket. That explains why that is a bit down.
On the R&D side, in line with our full year guidance, we are up as we invest into many platforms, technologies and in particular, into MB.OS. The other bucket contains, I mean, various elements, one of that is the discounting of noncurrent provisions due to lower interest rates, interest rate curves, which came down. The lower BBAC at-equity contribution. We had a prior year effect from the sale of the [indiscernible] and some proceeds from the divestiture of our operations in Indonesia and a bit on the own retail.
On the adjustment side EUR 66 million on Russia and close to EUR 100 million on diesel-related charges. With this, all in all, the EBIT booked came in at 14.2% and also at a 12.6% return on sales.
Let's have a look on the indicators of change. So to check whether we are on track in line with what we said we want to do over several years you know that we put out, I mean, these KPIs, I mean, to track the performance. First, I would say, on the ASP side, since 2019, 46% up. And again, 2023 another 2% up compared to 2022. So definitely, you see pillar 2 at work here, that means with a EUR 74,000 ASP, the pricing and the mix is supporting that.
On the cost side and on the headcount side, we had a meaningful reduction by 7%, equaling 9,000 FTEs. Our fixed cost by the end of 2023 were down by 16% compared to 2019. Remember, last year, that was a minus 13% so -- which means we made progress. And obviously, there was significant inflation. In the meantime, we overachieved that. So I would say we're well on track towards the target of 20% by 2025, which we did not adjust, I mean, for the hyperinflation over the last years so really stick into that objective.
On the R&D side, looking on cash side of things, I mean, this is up as we invest into the future, into platforms, into MB.OS consciously on the other side, on the PPE side, again, also cash flow, this is significantly down by 41% despite the investments into MMA and the expansion of our Eastern Europe footprint.
If we look on the longer-term investment commitment to take it down by 20% compared to 2019 levels. We said initially that, that would -- should happen by the middle of the decade. We see that now a bit more to the right in the second half of the decade, as we invest so heavily into the EV platforms and into MB.OS.
The detailed timing, I would say, of that 20% down, which we confirm and we committed to, however, will depend on the phasing of the transitioning from BEV into ICE. With this, I think you can see that, I mean, we're well on track and definitely, we want to keep going in that direction, not only until 2025, but beyond that.
Now looking on the cash flow evolution on the car side, EUR 12.3 billion CFBIT reported, adjusted approximately same number EUR 12.5 billion, I mean, that means a meaningful cash conversion of 0.9. What's driving that? Working capital was a charge by 1.1, mainly from inventory. So the stock level came down in terms of units but the higher material cost that I commented earlier have an impact, I mean, which outweighed, I mean, that number.
On the investment side, EUR 500 million, that is related to our [indiscernible] engagement. The sale of the operations in Indonesia and the retail. On the investment side, we see that investments in the PPE and the intangible are now exceeding the depreciation fully in line with the strategy to proactively invest into the transformation, into EV and into MB.OS.
On the adjustment side, we see expenses for legal proceedings, cash outs for the MOVE restructuring program, which we did some time ago and some M&A proceeds. Now having a look at the financials. So Ola, you mentioned it, a very, very strong set of results, fantastic year just again. So from my side, kudos to the whole team here, all figures up. Stellar performance, sales up 8%, revenues 18%, EBIT 60%, which means EUR 3 billion of EBIT adjusted and translating that also into cash of EUR 3 billion. Again, a very strong set of results.
In light of that, probably we can make it a bit short on the bridges. I would say also how did the team come from 11% to 15% here, while volume structure, pricing, all of that very, very strong with 2.4 billion. So volume held very healthy, solid pricing. So I think that fully endorses, I mean, the strategy to focus on profitable growth in the premium segments of the vans.
The FX contributed positively. However, I mean, there were 2 posing effects. On the 1 side, we had as well here, I mean, the Turkish lira, I mean, being negative with the counterpart also setting in pricing. On the other side, we had a material positive effect coming from the Argentinian peso, where the respective negative impact sits in the industrial performance.
So talking about that industrial performance, I mean, this FX effect, I mean, amounts to a mid-3 digit million number and this is driven by inflation. This is, by far, I mean, the single biggest items in the industrial performance. Overall, I mean, the Argentina business is a profitable contribution to the vans business.
And if we look on other effects in the industrial performance, we see some small 3-digit million inflation impact. And we also see that some higher logistic costs and the absence of some prior year effects weighted on the performance here, helped as well on the other side by favorable raw material tailwinds.
Direct selling, same thing, as I mentioned before, on the car side, I don't need to repeat that. R&D increasing, obviously, as we invest into VAN.EA, into new products, into technologies. Adjustments, refer also to diesel here. And with this, the EBIT adjusted and reported is at a strong EUR 3.1 billion.
On the cash conversion, a bit of working capital charge, which was a bit of inventory step-up, offset by receivables and payables. Investments, as already mentioned several times, I mean, stepping up. And on the others, in the technical reversal of at-equity result and the dividend from [ FBAC ]. Again, adjustments here refer to the legal proceedings.
We also want to share here for the first time, I think, indicators of change for the van side of things. So what do we see here? Also very, very meaningful, I mean, ASP step up by 36% since 2019, which is now sitting at EUR 48,000 in 2023, also supported by the strong mix and pricing as on the car side.
On the workforce side, we see an 8% reduction to 19,000 FTE headcount, but bear in mind that a big portion of that head count is blue collar whereas, the reduction comes chiefly from the white collars, which means the share of reduction on the white color is even higher. With this, also fixed costs came down in the van side by 16%. And same thing, inflation, all of that is included, which means we overcompensate inflation on a net basis.
On the R&D side, up again due to the investments, as we could see in the numbers before. And also on the PPE side, I mean, here, we're doing the investments in preparation of the VAN.EA and the further evolution of the footprint in Eastern Europe. So I would say, all in all, we can also say that on the van side, I mean, very, very well on track.
Key messages on the mobility side. Healthy new business development in a very competitive market environment. Focus of the team definitely to support the electrical wheels -- I mean -- electric vehicles, I mean, step up where we see a higher penetration rate above the average. The overall portfolio is at a stable level. The performance side is impacted by the higher level of refinancing cost and intensified, I mean, competition. However, we see in the acquisition margin, some signs of improvement but that will take a while until, I mean, it's making its way through the P&L.
What else, solid cost of credit risk, I mean, development. And in 2023, we bundled the charging business, I mean, inside the mobility side of the business with a ramp-up of the activities with the first HBC chargers, I mean, in the U.S., China and Germany, I mean, up and running operating and charging, Mercedes vehicles and others.
On the financials, well, I already said, new business is up by 7%. Portfolio, I mean, roughly stable. And on the EBIT side, let's have a closer look on the bridge. So with the EBIT at EUR 1.7 billion and 12.3% return on equity. How did we get there? The main reason, as already alluded to before, is the pressure on the interest margin from the higher refinancing costs and the increased interest rates, a bit of unfavorable FX, a bit of lower remarketing result at Athlon and then the investments in charging business. The cost of credit risk were overall, I mean, solid despite the macro environment and also higher level of delinquencies, I mean, in the U.S.
We could also see in the others -- in the other bucket that in 2023, we had a progress and a positive contribution from the mobility participations. The platforms business, I mean, over there, which helped, I mean, the performance. On the return on equity is at 12.3% before. If you exclude the charging, as we added that into it, it would have been 12.8%. The adjustments here on the mobility side refer to the divestments from Russia and an adjustment on the at-equity participation.
Now looking on the group EBIT. The business side cars, vans, mobility, I explained already. What is left to be said on the recon. Here, we see chiefly a higher level contribution of the at-equity result from our friends at Daimler Truck with EUR 600 million of improvement year-over-year.
And on the central function side, some topics which we had in the past, but no more this year, namely the spin-off costs from the trucks. With this, the EBIT adjusted sits at EUR 20 billion. On the adjustment, we have the M&A side, I refer to on the mobility as well as the impact from the Russia divestment. The booked EBIT, therefore, is at EUR 19.7 billion. Now looking on the cash side, the cash on cars and vans, I explained already. What's left on the central side, taxes at EUR 4.8 billion, higher cash taxes compared to 2022. Key reason is lower offsetable tax loss carryforwards in '23 compared to 2022. With this, we have a tax rate of approximately 28%.
The improved interest results also helped and therefore, contributed favorably on the group FCF. On the FCF and the recon, same thing on the truck side with a higher dividend. And with this, we ended the year with EUR 11.3 billion of free cash flow. Adjustments for legal proceedings, MOVE and M&A, as commented individually in the sections before.
Well, and that means we ended up, I mean, 2023 with a pretty healthy balance sheet of EUR 31.7 billion, whereas we started the year at EUR 26.6 million. That was obviously driven by the cash flow. We paid dividend of EUR 5.6 billion. We did the share buyback by the end of 2023 in the amount of EUR 1.9 billion, as we speak, it's even EUR 2.1 billion. So we are well on track for the EUR 4 billion share buyback program.
And on the other column, we cashed in dividend from the mobility, the payouts, which I have done over there. So I would say that is a very healthy and comfortable level of liquidity and balance sheet. And now obviously, you have a question, what are we doing with it?
I mean number one is the dividend proposal, with a net profit of EUR 14.5 billion and an EPS of EUR 13.5. We are roughly at the prior year level. On that backdrop, we proposed a divi of EUR 5.30 per share for the AGM. That is fully in line with our payout policy of approximately, I mean, 40%. But we also want our shareholders to participate to benefit from the share buyback, from the accretion of the share buyback done already, and that's why you see a progress on the dividend to EUR 5.30 compared to EUR 5.20 a year ago.
Well, and talking about shareholder return and capital allocation, I'm sure you noticed that we communicated yesterday, further extension of our capital allocation framework. What is the background of this? We feel very good to be on track in terms of the strategy and the strategy, I mean, execution. You can see strong cash generation, but we also expect a strong cash generation, I mean, moving forward in the years to come.
And with this confidence in mind, we want to rebalance and optimize our capital structure and distribution policy. The main element of that new policy communicated -- decided yesterday by the Supervisory Board and communicated, I mean, yesterday, is that in the future, we plan to allocate future available, I mean, cash flows on the industrial side after dividend and after M&A to our shareholders by way of share buybacks.
Let me take you through the individual steps of the capital allocation framework. First, it starts, I mean, the dividend policy which, again, confirmed at around 40% payout ratio, as you can see, with the proposal for 2023. And here, I would just like to reiterate that dividend sustainability is an important element when we look at that.
Second, let's have a look on the current share buyback program, the EUR 4 billion program, as I said, we did EUR 2.1 billion as we speak. Initially, we plan to complete that by February 2025. Given the speed, I think, we're well underway, and that means that possibly we will complete that program in the third quarter in 2024. So what does the new policy means in terms of practical, I mean, application there for now? Well, we want to complete, I mean, the EUR 4 billion program, I mean, ahead of time, but then we want to make use of the remainder of the 10% authorization, which we got from the AGM back in 2020. And that means that right after the completion of the EUR 4 billion program, we want to get started with an incremental EUR 3 billion to be completed before the AGM in Q2 2025.
As the legal threshold in Germany for share buyback is a 10% authorization by the AGM, so we go to the limit. And that's why probably we want to go back to the AGM in May 2025 or Q2 2025, and ask for approval of another 10% by then.
So with this, obviously, we want to generate continuous, I mean, EPS and DPS growth, I mean, over the years. At the same time, however, I mean, we will keep the flexibility in case of any unexpected market developments.
Let me maybe summarize -- sum up on this capital allocation framework, therefore, I think maybe it's fair to say that cash flow generation is a key topic, I mean, in the company. If we look now over the last couple of years, 2020 to 2022, we generated approximately EUR 8 billion of cash flow -- free cash flow a year; 2023, EUR 11 billion, as you could see so that means between 2020 and 2023, EUR 35 billion free cash flow generated, I mean, in total. And therefore, I think, it's fair to say our products are cash-generating machines. And that's what we want to keep moving forward and that's why we're doing this framework.
And that means that on the one side, we protect the investments into the transformation, into the BEV platforms, into software, into MB.OS, into battery architectures so that is and will remain the strategic priority. But at the same time, we can now distribute the incremental or the excess free cash flow over and above the divi to our shareholders.
And that means you have a stable and healthy divi stream on the one side. And then as a kind of a top-up with this policy, you have the incremental, I mean, share buyback using the FCF over and above, I mean, 40% of the divi, which should support EPS and DPS growth. And that gives us, on the one side, flexibility to honor the strategic investment needs, i.e., on the transformation side.
On the other side, it also offers, I mean, opportunities, which means in case of any divestitures, obviously, that would favor the free cash flow. And I'm pretty sure that some of our audience might have any potential divestiture of our Daimler Truck stake in mind.
Now I turn to the outlook for 2024. And well, first, I mean, obviously, we have the assumption -- first, we have the assumption chart. Please read that carefully, but I would say in the interest, I mean, of time, I jumped over it. And when I come back to the point, Ola, you mentioned already before that we have a change on the KPI set, so which means from 2024 onwards, instead of the CO2 we want to guide on xEV, which better reflects the worldwide activity, obviously, of our company and also of the electromobility than the pure European CO2 KPI.
Now let's look on the car side in terms of the guidance. First, a word on the supply side and the supply chain side of things. These bottlenecks, I mean, are easing. However, some topics will remain throughout, I mean, 2024 and therefore, impact also the sales perspective for the full year of 2024, in particular, I mean, in the first half of the year and in the first quarter. And that's why, I mean, at this juncture, I mean, we see the first quarter for 2024 below the prior year level.
At the same time, we also see that some suppliers may now getting a bit more in the stress, I mean, financial situation and that is also catered into these perspectives. What does it mean in terms of the sales guidance? So again, as for, I mean, 2023, for 2024, we take, I would say, a prudent view given, I mean, the supply chain constraint, but also, I think, continued, I mean, subdued macro environment.
If we look a bit into the market, it means in Europe, I mean, we see a picture which is a bit heterogeneous. Some markets a bit stronger, some a bit softer. Clearly, the availability, the increased availability on GLE at E-Class, I mean, should help throughout the year. If we look at China, we see, I mean, a more subdued, I mean, macro environment, which calls for some caution, I would say, overall. But also here, the GLC and the E-Class availability should help, I mean, to ramp up.
And in the U.S., we see a picture, which is, I would say, I mean, a solid momentum in terms of the demand side of things. But also here, I would say, on the SUV on the GLC, but also on the E-Class, we see some support. However, if we sum it up, all in all, we keep a view of the stable sales at prior year level for 2024.
On the xEV side of things, we see a situation also at the same level between 19% and 21%, with a lot of new products, I mean, to come at the same time, however, the current -- or the previous smart, we may say, is leaving the numbers, which has a counter effect, and that's why basically we are rather flat on this side.
On the margin side, what is the guidance here? 10% to 12%, which is, I would say, I mean, a solid number in the context, I mean, I explained before. How do we get there from 2023 to 2024? Well, I mean, the volume, I mean, is flat. The mix is also, I mean, rather flat. We have a lot of new entry positions. However, all in all, I mean, also on the top end side, we will rather see it stable, but at a very healthy high level.
So we are at the 60% where we wanted to get to. And therefore, I think we can be comfortable with this situation. On the pricing side, we definitely have the ambition to hold and defend pricing at 2023 levels. So where is the margin softening coming from? It is on the used car side where we do anticipate softening. As I said already before, it still sits at the end of '23 at a healthy level. But now we see it coming a bit, I mean, further down in 2024.
We do expect some headwinds on the FX side. And then obviously, 2024 is all about, I mean, material cost. So on the one side, we do see some material tailwinds on raw mats based on the current market conditions, which we're cashing in. But on the other side, we still expect further headwinds on supply chain-related costs. But all in all, on the material cost, we see a slight tailwind, therefore, in 2024. So you compared to 2023, we're turning the tide.
So what's left to be explained, that is the other bucket. So a bit of lower BBAC at-equity contribution in 2024 and absence of prior year effects, which roughly explains, I think -- I mean, the guidance of 10 to 12. Cash conversion is at 0.1 -- sorry, 0.8 to 1. So cash generation continues from here.
Now looking on the van side. We do anticipate some market softening. I mean, in the second half of the year, a solid start, strong backlog with very healthy pricing in the first half of the year. So we anticipate some softening here. The xEV share is expected to be in the range of 6% to 8% with the eSprinter 2.0 being available in the markets in 2024. Healthy pricing and mix to continue. And the R&D and the PPE is expected to be up.
Due to the volume adjustment -- the anticipated volume adjustment, we see the van guidance on the margin side at 12% to 14%, and cash conversion at 0.6 to 0.8, obviously, given the VAN.EA investments.
Mobility, we do expect the margin to be at 10% to 12%. So what is driving that? The portfolio should be at similar level. We still see the interest margin under pressure, in particular, I mean, in the first half of the year. As I commented earlier on the acquisition side, we see some improvement.
However, on the portfolio side, we're still suffering, I mean, in 2024. And that means that probably from today's point of view, I mean, the first quarter will even sit below the full year guidance corridor.
Now on the group side, what's left, obviously, if you read it up, the group revenues should be at prior year level, all together. Given what I explained on the cars, on the vans, on the mobility, the group EBIT should be slightly below 2023 level. And looking on the cash side of things, we also should be slightly below 2023, while 2023 was a pretty good year with EUR 11 billion, obviously, but with a lower EBIT on the cars, on the vans and the higher investments on the van side, I think it's easy to understand that the free cash flow should also sit to slightly below 2023. And with this, Ola, I hand back over to you.
Thank you, Harald, for the deep dive into the numbers. Now I would like to take you on a journey of our strategic priorities going forward, how are we executing our strategy and how do we set those priorities. And I'm going to start with the brand. Every year, Interbrand, which I think is one of the most respected institutions, comes out with a brand value study and a brand ranking. And we consistently sit in the top echelon of the famous brands in that study.
And I think whereas you can argue, is it actually mathematically possible to put a number -- a dollar number on a brand? I don't think you can argue with the fact that the Mercedes brand is perhaps our most valuable asset. And we are custodians of that brand and that asset that has been built up over more than 100 years.
So how do we want to take that value, that value for our customers, but also for our shareholders into the future? And it really starts with the customer. And I want to highlight a few things that we have been doing here over the last years and what we're working on.
The first thing is something that we call the Mercedes-Benz way. At the point of sale, whether it's sales or service appointment, buying, owning, servicing a car is still very much a people business. So we are investing a lot of resources and a lot of money into training our staff around the world to help every team member in the Mercedes sales and service team to create an experience -- a customer experience at the point of sale that fits to that brand promise.
So the human side of things is maybe the most important, but equally important is the environment. We have quietly in the background, upgraded almost 1/3 of our physical dealerships around the world to a new aesthetic standard. So when you walk into these showrooms, you just feel it's right. It's not just the product that is beautiful, the setting of how the product is presented is equally important.
And some of our investors around the world are even taking that to the next level now, and they are investing into dedicated showrooms for some of the other sister brands to the Mercedes-Benz master brand. So you now have dedicated dealerships really of AMG and Maybach. I visited a couple of those last year, and I was very impressed of what they have done there. And our investors wouldn't do this unless they think that, that's economically viable and has a growth potential. I would like to show a short movie of the opening of one flagship store in Dubai that I visited recently. Let's look at that movie.
[Presentation]
A few weeks ago, when I walked into this place, and it was just opened, our business partner in Dubai, Shehab Gargash that I've known for many, many years. I walked in and looked around at this facility. And my feedback to Shehab afterwards was, I think this is probably the most gorgeous showroom I've seen for Mercedes-Benz or any car brand in the world ever.
And you've obviously gone out of your way to create an atmosphere here there so almost like you want to move into the place. And I just came from having on the same trip, opened the new flagship store in Riyadh, in Saudi Arabia with a similar feeling with our partners there, the Juffali family.
So what this is demonstrating is we want to take it to the next level for our customers, but they are not doing it. And I'm reiterating, they're not doing it just because they love Mercedes, they do. They're doing it because they think it's good business.
Next to that, representation for the customer out there in the field. There are other things that are happening. You know that we're on a journey introducing direct sales in many markets across the world. 2023 was a big year, and we're now covering more than 50% of our sales volume in Europe and about 30% of our sales volume in overseas.
And step by step over the next year, we will continue with this. Many customers also want to have the same feeling in the digital world. And perhaps in the past, sometimes I felt years ago when I went into the Mercedes-Benz configurator, I wanted to digitally configure my vehicle. I wished I had a PhD in computer science because sometimes it was so complicated that I just couldn't figure it out. Maybe we had too much choice.
If you do that now, and if we look at the digital journey that you have now, I think it pretty much matches what you see in the physical world. It's easy to understand. It's customer oriented. We're rolling it out in many markets. And should you choose to either just want to reserve your vehicle online or go all the way because you know the brand and buy your vehicle online.
We're at the forefront of the OEMs that are going in this direction, and we will continue that effort. So the customer journey, whether it's physical or digital, it needs to be equally attractive. Speaking about having the customers back. And Harald mentioned it when he talked about the numbers. We are investing into charging infrastructure. Why are we doing this?
I think one of the most important enabling factors on the longer journey of going zero emission is that the customers want to have the same confidence in convenience that they have been used to for the many decades that are behind us. So we have decided to send a signal to our customers through our efforts in charging, telling them, we got your back, and we're doing 3 things.
One, and that we have been doing for years now, is we're teaming up with others in consortium. It started in Europe. Last summer, we put together a consortium for North America, one of the driving forces there, that is going to start investing. And just very recently, we announced teaming up with another well-known partner from Southern Germany to tackle this in the Chinese market.
So strength through partnerships and delivering more high-performance charging to our customers. On top of that, we're adding a Mercedes layer. So if you are a Mercedes customer, looking at this electric G-Class here, which is about to launch, you will also have in the right geographical locations, dedicated Mercedes charging points.
The first ones have been opened in the United States, in Europe, in China, and we're gradually building this, and we're going to invest a significant amount of money into this throughout this decade. There, you can expect, as a Mercedes customers, in some cases, to have maybe additional features like you can reserve your spot ahead of time. The car knows where you need to stop and can kind of reserve it for you.
So if you're going on vacation, you don't come to the charging spot and there's somebody ahead of you, you know that you're safe and that you can charge. And yes, we also made a tactical decision last year to open up the Tesla network in North America through an agreement with them that will come into fruition for all the Mercedes EV users as of the middle of this year.
So a lot of effort taking care of the customer. But of course, at Mercedes, we were always a product company and the product is always at the center of what we do. So the bulk of the investment, these very high investment, mind you, but funded by our own cash generation, we will continue to push product investment.
And it doesn't matter if it is the whole electric product portfolio and the massive amount of activity that is going on there is also true for many years to come, that the electrified high-tech combustion portfolio plays an equally important role.
And it's, of course, the backbone at the moment of the cash flows that we have been talking about here in the financial presentation. So as an established manufacturer, the customers can also feel comfortable to get top end product in both categories for the foreseeable future.
Speaking about top end product. I mentioned the E-Class before. And we're just launching the new E-Class in China. Here, you can see the backseat of it. When I was in China in the late fall, and I was sitting in 1 of the early production vehicles before we had gone into the market, and I've kind of seen it on the PowerPoint slides, but if you live in Europe, you drive the European version of the E-Class, which is, of course, fantastic. When I stepped into the Chinese one in the back, I thought I was sitting in a S-Class. It's that level of comfort in the back seat of that car. And we know how important the long wheel base is in the Chinese market.
So this desire to create more desirability for our customers, it's not something that is happening in 5 years' time and what we're deciding now will eventually trickle into products in the second half of the decade. It's happening now, and our customers can enjoy this now, as is the case with this example of the E-Class in China.
But speaking about desirability, on the top end side of things, yes, we have it here. Believe it or not, in the picture there, you see this electric G going up the legendary Schöckl Mountain, which is right next to Graz where this car is being built. And yes, it's actually me behind the wheel. It's not because I have a stroke of vanity here, and I wanted to demonstrate my driving skills. My driving skills are far from those of the people that actually develop these vehicles.
But what struck me when I drove up that mountain and it's pretty heavy duty off-roading is how incredibly easy it was to drive this vehicle. I stepped out of it afterwards and thought, "Wow, my mother could have done this." I'm not commenting on my mother's driving. She's a very good driver and has a perfect record in terms of accidents over 50-plus years, but the technology that is available in this vehicle now makes this effortless. And that goes beyond kind of the cool G turn that you do for show.
We are protecting our very strong position on the S-Class and continue to invest in technologies into that product. The EQS Maybach is coming into the market. And maybe my personal favorite, even though myself, I'm an SL fan, if you get the opportunity to enjoy some of the open air and the sun, that's great.
But now we're launching the next-generation GT. It's phenomenal. It's 2 plus 2, it's got 4-wheel drive. It's got crazy performance. And with the concept that we have chosen, you can do all that while carrying at least 2 sets of golf bags, if you're a golfer in the weekend with it as well. So the perfect sports car that you can use for every day, continuing to invest in top end vehicle products, but we go beyond that.
And what we also want to -- maybe we switch here. What we also want to do is to cater to customers that are looking for something even more special. We have always had the opportunity for what we call MANUFAKTUR. And in fact, we have dedicated an area in our kind of master plant Sindelfingen for MANUFAKTUR where you can create your own tailor-made suit.
And the team that is behind that, they're not only passionate, they see a bigger business opportunity. So we're expanding this from the opportunity to do the 1 of 1 your individual vehicle to take features that we develop for you to make your cars even more special. From time to time, we do limited editions. You can't be inflationary about this.
Here is an example of the one that we did with the late Virgil Abloh. And we announced a couple of years ago that we would introduce a new series that we call the Mythos Series, and the Mythos Series will have its first member launched next year. And, yes, marketing collaborations, it's about the motions. There's kind of crazy G on the moon here. It is what it is, but it is pretty cool.
And here, we intersect with other industries that are looking at the same buying group. But coming back to earth again here. We're also keeping investing in the products that we have on the road now. So this is a glimpse of the slightly revised phase of the EQS, and many customers said, Sport, yes, Ola, but we have some traditionalist as well, the traditionalist for Mercedes wants to have the star in the hood. So we put the star in the hood. That's maybe an optical thing that makes them feel better. Even more important, especially for me, I'm 195 tall, I sit in the back of this vehicle, it's great, it's big.
Coming from the S-Class, you're used to perfection. So we have developed a new executive seating that comes to the EQS and will be launched only in a few months' time. The hyperscreen is standard. And here, we can see also technology development at work. Even though the car is relatively fresh, we're already now with the first chemistry update, which will improve together with a range of other measures that range by another 6%, 7%, 8%.
So WLTP, the EQS, and it's a very big vehicle and it has all the bells and whistles that you expect from Mercedes. It takes it above 800 kilometers according to WLTP. With its beautiful aerodynamic shape, it literally just slices the air for you and of any car that I have driven, especially in that size, it's the one that you want to take if you're going on a longer trip.
Do we stop there? No. For those of you who had the opportunity to go to the auto show in Munich, we presented a concept vehicle that we call the concept CLA. That car is the first of many. In a way, it is the 1 that paves the way for the next generation, not only electric vehicles, but also intelligent vehicles for Mercedes.
In Munich, we listed a range of quite impressive performance targets that we had set for this first CLA. Now that we're on the dyno, on our test facilities, the prototypes are driving on the road, we have a high level of confidence that we will be able to confirm these numbers when we launch the car next year.
So the entry point of Mercedes, you will have a version with more than 750 kilometers range. It's not for everybody, but for the ones that have longer commutes, you need not to worry. But you also don't have to worry about the charging time. With this new 800-volt technology, you will be able to charge up to 400 kilometers in 15 minutes, then charging becomes almost like fueling, not exactly the same, but it cuts the time compared to most of the best cars today in half or in more than half.
That you will get the performance and the refinement and the ride and drive and the feeling of the Mercedes and the safety and all those different things, that is what customers of the Mercedes brand take for granted.
But we are really stepping up and going to the next level in terms of e-drivetrain. And we have invested from R&D all the way down to chemistry research into production of our next-generation electric axle to set the company up for the next wave. And this will underpin, not only this vehicle, pretty much then every Mercedes that comes '25, '26, '27 and beyond.
And speaking about beyond, why are we investing so much in R&D? I could see that number, EUR 9.1 billion, I think it was last year. Well, it's because we are doing more at the same time than we have ever done in the history of our company. You're well aware of the 3 architectures that are in the making, Mercedes-Benz electric architecture. So behind the CLA and the gaggle of vehicles that come with that, it's the next-generation GLC and C-Class that is scheduled for '26 so it's just right behind it.
AMG is developing a dedicated performance architecture to take the thrill of driving performance to the next level. And equally exciting is what the van team is working on, VAN.EA. I mentioned the eSprinter 2.0, great vehicle, and it's brand new. But starting then probably the passenger side of van, only in a couple or 2.5 years from now, we are ushering in a new era. And this is happening while we're not neglecting our fresh and very competitive high-tech combustion portfolio, will keep that fresh as well.
Now what is the defining challenge for electric mobility next to the systemic shift that is going on, replacing fossil fuels as the energy source with then CO2-free energy, that whole industrial Herculean task is, of course, very, very large.
But the other one, and this is what we're working on, the whole industry is working on, is to try to get the variable cost down. It's no secret that the variable cost of the battery electric vehicle sits significantly above what we were used to on the combustion side, and it will remain so for the foreseeable future.
But it's equally true that we're working extremely hard on bringing those costs down. So those architectures that I just mentioned, starting with the CLA, we believe we can take at least 30% cost out compared to the ones that we had launched in the last couple of years and that are on the street now. And as a little detailed footnote to that, next to developing cutting-edge latest generation NMC technology, we have taken a second look also at LFP, kind of where the journey started some many years ago.
And the next-gen LFP is also very attractive for the right portfolio positions. So we will be able to cater to different needs very much like in the combustion logic, you can maybe get an E200, but you can also get an E53 AMG and they have different levels of performance, and we are preparing for that.
The $1 billion question, I don't know, the $1 trillion dollar question is how fast is this going to happen? And if you follow the journey and the general reporting and all the forecasting of the last 4 or 5, maybe even 10 years, you can see it's like a roller coaster of forecasting.
What does that tell us? It tells us that transformation is not a straight line. A systemic shift, the size of this, I mean changing the whole, let's say, energy infrastructure behind mobility is a very, very big task. So we have to realize that there can be peaks and troughs in this transition. If you are an established manufacturer, you got to have a plan to cater for this.
So let's just think about what is our plan and take a step back again, what are we doing? We are preparing the company for a CO2-free future, full stop. So the strategic destination that we are going to is 0 emission. And with our statement Ambition 2039, we have committed ourselves to CO2-neutral by the end of the next decade. That is the strategic growth, and that remains.
How quickly and what will the journey look like on the way there? Difficult to say. So we need to have flexibility, strategic clarity, but what we call tactical flexibility. That is why now that we can see that some market due to incentivization, maybe infrastructure, maybe mass adoption, customers are still not ready to make the switch.
There are all sorts of reasons that decide this space. We want to make it clear to our customers, but also to our investors that we will utilize this tactical flexibility. It becomes more difficult to predict exactly what year will you hit what number. And when we talked about 2024, Harald, together with the people in marketing and sales, don't artificially try to hit the number by pushing product into the market, doesn't make sense. It's not what the Mercedes brand is all about. It's about value over volume and protecting the value for our customers but also for our investors.
And I mentioned that I was down in the Middle East looking at the opening of these 2 flagship stores. Are those markets going to be 100% electric in 2030? Probably not. Investors that pour tens and tens of millions into unbelievable showrooms like that want to have some certainty that they will get the return on investment. So it's comforting to them to know that well into the '30s, we have the ability and the flexibility to cater to all customer needs.
I don't want this to come across as oops, is the electric thing not as hot as everybody was talking about maybe 3 years ago. No, it is that hot. Look at the tens of billions that we're pouring into these next generations. We're not missing a beat in terms of how we're investing into this. We are pushing ahead as a matter of fact and investing on a very high level. But I think as an incumbent, you need a double hedge, and that's what we're doing.
CO2 reduction and Ambition 2039 is not just about the product, I realize it's the kind of the main thing that's what everybody is talking about and ultimately, when you reach the zero emission destination, you have to be in the position that all your products apply an energy source that is CO2 neutral.
But we have a massive effort going on in our whole business system: supply chain, our own operations, the product that we have talked about and the product in use. And we are investing massively into CO2 reduction in all of those areas, making very fast and very promising progress on our production side. Many or most of our suppliers are joining us on the journey. It's not just about some highlight examples of CO2 reduced or CO2 -- almost CO2-free steel or the deal that we struck with a major aluminum company recently to source aluminum 70% down CO2 in terms of its footprint compared to what we have had before and, and, and. Of course, it's hugely important. 70% of car companies value-added comes from suppliers.
So we're on the case on all of those things, and we will continue investing in that. And it's also about closing the loop. What's going to happen to the battery after its life in the case of Mercedes, a long time from now, longevity and quality is 1 of our brand values.
So Ambition 2039 is a holistic effort beyond the product. Let me switch gear here for a second and talk about the digital revolution because next to the e-drivetrain, the decarbonization and everything that's driving transformation, I would say, compute power, sensing technology, artificial intelligence, that is as big of a revolution. Maybe it's even bigger, technologically, perhaps even more sophisticated, even a bigger leap for an established manufacturer.
We have been talking over the last few years and especially in a bigger presentation last year about our operating system, MB.OS. Well, here it is. You can't see it, but this is a CLA -- camouflaged CLA, about 1.5 weeks ago, driving in my home country, up in the north -- it's very beautiful up there, quite cold, and it's driving with the full preproduction version of MB.OS.
Every single domain is now in use and being tested. I would be lying if I would say that this is a walk in the park. It's not because it is as if you rip out the brain and the central nervous system of the car and you want to put all of those pieces back together, and literally hundreds of thousands of functions need to work hand in hand. So that is a big, big job, but we're now with our R&D teams around the world really. We're like on that final stretch.
So in the next 12 months or so, we want to launch the CLA in 2025. We're more or less on track. I'm sure that some of the engineers are now sweating a little bit when I say that, but we can take that heat and that pressure. It seems to be working, and it's starting to come together.
One hugely important part of that is assisted driving and autonomous driving. We are the original inventors of the first driving assistance systems. We're a pioneer in this field. That's why we're continuing to investing in it. Why? Because it makes driving safer. It's one of the core values of Mercedes-Benz, but it also increases convenience.
When I drove the automatic lane change function for the first time in a prototype car last year, I went to myself, wow, this is great. I want this. Can we get this? I think we were quickest in getting it certified on U.S. roads and it's now coming to Europe. It really makes the highway situation of the current assistant systems so much better.
The engineering team have said, okay, we were the first ones on the moon, put a flag on the moon with Level 3, great, up to 60 kilometers an hour, which is what the regulation said here in Germany, but we want to expand the envelope of it. So now we're in a push to see if we can take that by the end of this year to 90 kilometers, then it starts getting really interesting.
But behind that, we're working on systems with even more sophisticated computing power, more sophisticated sensors that can be able to take it above 100 kilometers on the highway eventually. And suddenly, you can have your own computer driver. Then it starts becoming really interesting.
And yes, as part of this MB.OS 1.0 effort, together with our tech partner, NVIDIA, that CLA that you could see there in Sweden is testing this new comprehensive architecture, which lays the foundation for all of our automated driving efforts for the future starting 2025 and forward so hugely excited about this area.
Maybe on a more sober note. I think you said, Harald, we have delivered a reasonable amount of fixed cost discipline, worked on that. It's part of the discipline that you need to have as a company to manage your finances. We don't shy away from making structural decisions, if they're necessary and if they support the strategy and if it creates value for our customers, but also financial value for the company and ultimately the shareholders.
So we will continue to do this. We will keep you posted. We announced at the beginning of this year that we are starting a discussion with the labor side in our company to investigate a proposal move of our own retail in Germany into private investors' hands, something that we have had very good experience with in Europe and overseas. So those discussions have started, and we will see how we progress.
But also to make sure that in an uncertain world, you match your production capacities to what the market needs are and not kind of the other way around, I think maybe the most important now and immediate important now for 2024, Harald, and you mentioned it is to kind of break a tip of the inflation that we've had on the material cost side and start moving down.
Is this something new in the auto industry? No, it's not. Continuous improvement has been in the DNA of the auto industry probably since its inception, but we need to now realize that we're out of the pandemic, we're out to this constrained story, let's get our mojo back here as an industry and start working very hard on variable cost optimization because the customers in the enormous competitive intensive landscape that we are in, they're not just going to expect to take over every single bit of that inflation. We have to combat that ourselves inside the company and together with our supply partners.
So to sum it up, I said that we are custodians of the brand -- let's see if this works here -- we are custodians of a brand. That's the slide that I started with on this presentation of strategic priorities. And what is that brand? As the original inventor of the automobile, you can always expect us to invest into innovation and leading technology. That will always be a cornerstone of the Mercedes-Benz, but we will blend it with desirability, with the timeless elegance.
Maybe with the slightly irrational sometimes where you just have this, I want it factor, and it's not just about going from A to B, it's going from A to B in style, that is the secret sauce, that is the magic recipe of Mercedes-Benz. It kind of always has been, and we will stay true to that. Thank you very much.
So thank you very much, everyone. Thank you, Harald and Ola for the presentation. Thank you for joining. And next up on this morning are our Q&A sessions. We will start at 10:30, that's in exactly 10 minutes from now with a Q&A session for analysts and investors.
Just as a reminder, for the journalists, your Q&A will start at 11:45 CET. Our virtual guests can follow the whole event in one stream. All of you should have received your dial-in data by e-mail beforehand. Thank you, everybody, and see you later.