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Good day, and welcome to the SAP Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded.At time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Stefan Gruber, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning or good afternoon. This is Stefan Gruber. Thank you for joining us for our extended earnings call today to discuss our strategy update as well as our third quarter results and the updated guidance. I'm joined by our CEO, Christian Klein; and our CFO, Luka Mucic, who will make opening remarks on the call today. And also joining us for Q&A is the Executive Board member at Adaire Fox-Martin, who leads our customer success organization. And as usual, before we get started, I'd like to say a couple of words about forward-looking statements and our use of non-IFRS financial measures. Any statements made during this call that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements as defined in the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.Words such as anticipate, believe, estimate, expect, forecast, intend, may, plan, project, predict, should, outlook and will and similar expressions as they relate to SAP are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. SAP undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations.The factors that could affect SAP's future financial results are discussed more fully in our filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the SEC, including SAP's annual report on Form 20-F for 2019, filed with the SEC on February 27 this year. Participants of this call are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of their dates.In addition, on the Investor Relations website, you can find a slide deck intended to supplement today's call available for download. The address is www.sap.com/investor. For those of you following the webcast, the slides will be shown as we proceed to the prepared remarks.Unless otherwise noted, all financial numbers referred to on this conference call are non-IFRS and growth rates and percentage points are non-IFRS at constant currency year-over-year. The non-IFRS financial measures we provide should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to the measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with IFRS. And this extended earnings call today is being held in lieu of the Capital Markets Day we discussed last quarter.With that, I'd like to turn things over to our CEO, Christian Klein.
Thank you, Stefan. Welcome, and thanks for joining. I hope everyone is well and staying safe as COVID infection rates are unfortunately increasing again in most countries. Today's announcement mark an important milestone for SAP. We have not only published our Q3 results and updated our 2020 outlook, but more importantly, we are providing additional insight into how we are evolving our strategy. Our updated strategy is a response to the fundamental changes in the market caught on by the COVID-19 pandemic.COVID-19 is an inflection point for our customers. Many enterprises have real issues to produce, sell and deliver their products in times of country lockdowns and people working from home. For most of our 400,000 customers, resiliency is achieved not just by accelerating the move to the cloud, but more importantly, by driving a fundamental change in how their business operates end-to-end. It means transforming every process for the digital world from the customer-facing go-to-market function, all the way to supply chain management.SAP is uniquely positioned to partner with our customers to make this transformation happen, combined with a move to the cloud, which is why we are determined to reinvent our businesses run by co-innovating with our customers and partners across the broader cloud solution portfolio in the market. Responding decisively to the requirements of our customers in a fast-changing world, results in our new financial midterm ambition. But before going there, let's take a quick look at Q3 and the updated 2020 outlook.In Q3, our resilient business model allowed us to continue to grow strongly in the cloud, and again, growing operating profit and margin. Apart from the intelligence spend business, our SaaS and PaaS cloud revenues were up by 26%, and we continue to see a very rapid growth in categories such as commerce, S/4, supply chain, Qualtrics and our foundation, the business technology platform. Current cloud backlog is up significantly by 16% to EUR 6.6 billion.At the same time, the lack of recovery from COVID-19 is visible in a lower-than-expected transactional cloud revenue because of our travel and expense solution concur which is hard to sell in times of COVID. Our software license performance is on a similar level compared to our great Q2 results.On the bottom line, the benefits of our Best Run transformation project has continued to show tremendous focus. As stated, we yet again expanded significantly our operating margin and free cash flow. In addition, 28,000 customer go live over the last 9 months demonstrate our ability to deliver remotely in a challenging environment. Q3 also saw many notable customer wins, including some competitive replacements. Deals included: Lenovo for S/4HANA, Rabobank for S/4HANA Cloud, Swisscom and Barilla for Customer Experience, HPE and Uniper for the Business Technology Platform, LG for Ariba, Walgreens Boots Alliance for supply chain management, Lululemon for Qualtrics, Schwarz Group for Industry Cloud and Bahrain Airport for SuccessFactors.For SuccessFactors, actually, more than 4,000 customers and around 45% of the Fortune 500 are already running on our core solution Employee Central trial. This quarter, we added more than 500 S/4HANA customers, around 45% were net new, take up to a total of more than 15,100 customers, 20% up over last year. In Q3, we also added a new deployment option for our private cloud service, HANA Enterprise Cloud. So far, we have offered deployment in SAP or hyperscaler data center. But there's also demand by customers who want these services in their own data center managed by SAP. This is why we have now launched the HANA Enterprise Cloud, customer edition. And we are very excited that in this quarter, Lenovo has decided to become a global partner for our customer edition with their true scale offering. This supplements the global GreenLake partnership with VMWare and HP.Finally, Interbrand has issued the 2020 Best Global Brands report, and I'm very proud that SAP came in as #18 globally, up 2 spots versus last year and growing its brand value by 12% to more than USD 28 billion. Luka will now provide additional insights into Q3 and our updated 2020 outlook. Luka, over to you.
Yes. Thanks very much, Christian, and welcome also from my side. We again navigated through a challenging environment in Q3. Amidst COVID headwinds, we improved our operating profit and operating margin against a very strong prior year comparison. Our cash flow saw an exceptional improvement and our earnings per share was very strong. Our resilient business model with a consistent year-over-year increase in more predictable revenue helped us to weather the storm in these unprecedented times.Now let's go into more detail on the quarter. Starting with the top line, where our current cloud backlog grew by 16%, reaching EUR 6.6 billion amid continued COVID-19 effects on our cloud business. Our cloud revenue was up 14% with continued lower transactional revenues. This negatively impacted our cloud growth rate by 6 percentage points, especially in Concur. While our on-premise software license business continued to see scrutiny over large projects as uncertainty persisted, our performance this quarter was similar to the one in Q2, especially considering the very good Q3 last year.From a regional perspective, Europe had a resilient performance this quarter with strong results in Russia and Switzerland. Latin America had a remarkable performance, driven primarily by Brazil and Mexico. And in APJ, Japan had a solid quarter, and Australia and India were highlights. In Q3, our cloud and software revenue grew by 2%. For the first 9 months, our cloud and software revenue was up a solid 4%, even though the challenging demand environment did not further recover as we had hoped.Our services revenue was down 11%. While we continue to deliver most of our projects very efficiently and effectively, remotely, we do see an impact, in particular, on our training business as the reopenings of our global training centers have been delayed. As a result, our total revenue was flat year-over-year.Now moving on to the bottom line. Where in Q3, again, all of our businesses, cloud, on-premise and services increased their gross margins. Our overall cloud gross margin continued its positive trend and grew by 70 basis points year-over-year to 70%. All cloud business models contributed to this margin expansion. Our SaaS PaaS margin grew by 110 basis points to 71%. Our intelligence spend margin grew by 20 basis points to 78%. And our Infrastructure as a Service margin grew by 800 basis points to 33%.In Q3, our software licenses and support gross margin was up 60 basis points to 88%, despite the decrease in software licenses revenue. Our services gross margin increased significantly by 500 basis points and reached 31%. This was mainly driven by a larger share of our high-margin premium engagement business, which has proven to be effective in this virtual environment.As you will recall, our operating profit as well as our operating margin was up significantly in Q3 of last year. This quarter, our operating profit grew strongly by 4% and our operating margin expanded by 1.3 percentage points to 31.9%. As uncertainty persisted, we remain cautious on hiring and discretionary spend. On an IFRS basis, our operating profit and operating margin decreased. This was primarily due to higher share-based compensation expenses.Now turning to EPS and taxes. IFRS EPS increased by 26%. Non-IFRS EPS increased by 31%. This was mainly driven by yet another exceptional contribution from Sapphire Ventures, which had a significant positive impact on our finance income as well as in our IFRS and non-IFRS effective tax rate.Therefore, we now expect an improvement in our effective tax rates for 2020. Our IFRS tax rate is expected to be in the range of 27% to 28%, and our non-IFRS tax rate is expected to be in the range of 26.5% to 27.5%.Now turning to cash flow. In particular, a bright spot. In the first 9 months, our operating cash flow was strong and improved by 54% to EUR 5.1 billion. As expected, we experienced lower restructuring-related payments and lower income tax payments. Our free cash flow was up even further and grew by 79% to EUR 4.2 billion. Free cash flow additionally benefited from lower CapEx compared with the previous year. Therefore, we are again raising our cash flow expectation for 2020. We now expect an operating cash flow of approximately EUR 6 billion and a free cash flow above EUR 4.5 billion.Let me now turn to the remaining part of our previous 2020 outlook that was issued on April 8 and reflected our best estimates concerning the timing and pace of recovery from the COVID-19 crisis. Back then, we had assumed that the demand environment would gradually improve in the third and fourth quarters. And while we still see robust customer interest in our solutions to drive digital transformation, regrettably lockdowns have recently been reintroduced in some regions. Infection rates have reaccelerated, and as a result, demand recovery has been more muted.Further and for the same reasons, we no longer anticipate a meaningful recovery in SAP Concur business travel-related revenues for the remainder of the year. Therefore, we now expect cloud revenue in a range between EUR 8 billion to EUR 8.2 billion. Cloud and software revenue in a range between EUR 23.1 billion to EUR 23.6 billion. Total revenue in a range between EUR 27.2 billion to EUR 27.8 billion. And operating profit in a range between EUR 8.1 billion to EUR 8.5 billion.So to summarize on Q3. This quarter, we showed tremendous results as we continued to improve operating profit and margin even against the strongest comparison. Based on a resilient top line performance, paired with discipline on the cost side, we had high double-digit free cash flow growth and exceptional earnings per share numbers. All of this and our resilient business model position us well to emerge stronger out of the crisis and meet our new midterm ambition, which we would like to discuss next. And for this, let me hand back to Christian.
Yes. Thank you, Luka. Now before looking at our strategy and midterm ambition, let me start with a brief recap of what we have achieved over the last 6 to 9 months. SAP was definitely not short of events. We have streamlined our operations. All our customer-facing operations were combined into one customer success organization and all our application development within one product engineering unit to simplify SAP. Thanks to our dedicated focus on customer success across SAP, we have seen a very encouraging year-to-date customer satisfaction score. For the first time in several years, there is a clear positive trend. We have increased focus in our existing portfolio. We have decided to divest noncore assets such as SAP Digital Interconnect. And we end a partnership to co-innovate with industry-leading companies like Siemens, Honeywell and Bosch. Instead of doing everything ourselves, we are co-innovating.Finally, we have started to establish SAP as a leading cloud platform company. We have always been the leading on-premise application platform. Thousands of partners and customers have built applications and extensions on SAP for almost 50 years. Our intention is to repeat that for the cloud to position SAP as the leading cloud platform to transform and change the way enterprises work in the digital age. To get there, we have put a lot of work into our cloud platform over the past 12 months, and we will continue to invest in innovation. And we are very pleased to see that the hard work is being recognized. Gartner just ranked us leader for both enterprise integration platforms and development platforms. The time when SAP developed and engaged with customers in silos are over.Now before we go deeper into our strategy, let me pause here for a moment and talk about why we are doing this now. The COVID-19 pandemic, which we all hoped would be easing by now, is scaling up for an additional wave. This crisis has created an inflection point for customers, a true catalyst to accelerate their transformation effort, has put a spotlight on resiliency which is more than just about the underlying infrastructure and its move to cloud. It is about changing the way our company wants to adapt to new digital business models and drive automation. Resiliency and sustainable long-term growth and profitability comes only by transforming the company to the needs of the consumers and employees in a digital world.Take retail, for example. When brick-and-mortar stores shut down because of the pandemic and supply chains were disrupted, retailers that had made the move to digital did much better than those who -- they were able to continue to sell by e-commerce. And the digital supply chain ensured that despite the lockdown, they can continue to sell, produce and deliver their products. To adapt new business model and to do so with agility, our customers need innovative business software, a platform ensuring harmonized semantical data models, run new digital business models end-to-end.This is where SAP comes in. With our strategy, accelerated technical migration of our customers' most important business applications to the cloud, and we are agnostic when it comes to their choice between SAP data center or hyperscaler. We can make it work, with the near best TCO in the market, no matter which choice our customers make. Second and more importantly, we will bring the full force of our business applications and platform to drive holistic business transformation. By enabling our customers to seamlessly design, evolve or in win new business models with agility and speed. To do so, all our main solutions will adopt the cloud platform and share one semantical data model, one AI and analytics layer, one common security and authorization model and the same application business services such as workflow management.With our cloud platform, powered by SAP HANA, processes can be changed, enabling agile workflows. Innovations and extensions can be developed quickly by customers and partners accessing our open platform, using exactly the same data model in business services as our own SAP App. We are convinced that the real value driver of intelligent enterprises in the cloud will be the ability to adapt and run new business model holistically end-to-end with one consistent data model.This is where we take a different approach than other. Data and proto silos are the biggest inhibitor enterprises to offer a seamless customer and employee experience. You need integration extensibility and innovation to truly drive business outcomes. Resiliency, profitability and sustainability. That is the only way forward. What gives me confidence at this unique time in our history is our position of strength, our progress today and our heritage.Our applications are more than EUR 10 billion worth of workloads, and we won them semantically consistent across the entire value chain. At SAP, we are drawing on almost 50 years of business expertise of defining, redefining and reinventing the most important processes of our customers. And only SAP can mobilize a partner ecosystem, consisting of the best brands to fully realize the potential of any customer, no matter the size to truly become an intelligent enterprise.This is in our DNA. It is our goal to enable every customer to become an intelligent enterprise, and we are determined to leave no customer behind. Especially now in times of COVID, we reaffirm our deep commitment to our customers to help them through the crisis. This new strategy and as well as macroeconomic factors have implication for our financials. They are the reason for the change of our midterm guidance, which I'm going to speak about next.So coming from our previous financial midterm ambition, what are the changes? Let me start with the 2 macroeconomic factors, currency and COVID. First, over the last 3 months, we have experienced currency headwind versus our previous assumption. This translates into a negative 3 to 4 percentage effect on revenue and operating profit. Second, we now anticipate a more conservative COVID-19 recovery. We assume that COVID will impact the economies through at least the first half of next year. And then we have 2 strategic decisions where we are charting the financial guidance to the new reality and, first and foremost, to the need of our customer.One, as just discussed. We will reinvent how businesses run, enabling our customers' business transformation in the cloud to gain higher resiliency. In consequence, we will accelerate the transition of our customer base to the cloud. This accelerated move to the cloud will clearly add value over the long run by increasing cloud revenue. And in the short term, there will be revenue mix effect as we see less on-premise and more cloud revenue, resulting in a negative operating margin impact of 4 to 5 percentage points in 2023.Two, we will continue to relentlessly execute on productivity improvements under the Best Run program, as laid out last year's Capital Markets Day. We are not moving away from these commitments. By accelerating the move into the cloud, we will even further increase the productivity improvements in our cloud delivery operations. We have decided to speed up the modernization of our cloud delivery to enable a more resilient and scalable cloud infrastructure. This will require additional investments in the next 2 years but allow us to largely complete the modernization in this time frame and achieve a cloud gross margin of approximately 80% in 2025. We will provide more background on those 2 strategic decisions in a moment.But first, I'll go a bit deeper on the macroeconomic impact. Nobody can predict the COVID-19 economic impact beyond 2020. But given recent developments, it is prudent to assume a more gradual recovery, which we have now done. For our on-premise business, we have seen significant investment delays in 2020 in several hard hit industries and across all industries and geographies, we see an increasing demand to accelerate the move to the cloud. We thus expect software license revenues to decline further from today's levels also in the future, considering our accelerated cloud transition. For our cloud business, we assume that the negative COVID-19 impact will start to ease in mid-2021.Let's now move to the strategic decision, starting with the accelerated cloud transition for our customer base. The increase in customer performance for cloud is ultimately positive for SAP as we are already the second largest enterprise cloud application vendor. And we continue to grow rapidly even amidst the COVID-19 crisis. With the journey to the cloud, as previously outlined, we are further addressing this market need, accelerate the cloud transition and tripling our cloud revenue to more than EUR 22 billion by 2025.The ambition is based on moving our large on-premise ERP workloads to the cloud and gaining market share for our leading cloud application, firmly establishing our platform as deep basis for business transformation in the cloud, winning in new markets, increasing our R&D invest to deliver new innovations in the industry cloud, business network or sustainability, a strong focus on our customer success to ensure adoption, higher renewals and ultimately, lifetime value.The incremental growth resulting from -- of this accelerated cloud transition will be even more profitable until 2025. To deliver on this target and to retain the profit focus, we have also decided to accelerate the modernization of our cloud delivery. Luka will now take us through the financial implications of both of those decisions. And then how it all comes together in our new midterm ambition. Luka?
Yes. Thanks, Christian. So let me first talk about the financial implications of moving our on-premise customer base to the cloud. As Christian has already explained the strategic motivation, so let me now look at the financial rationale. To begin with, as you know, the cloud transition is not a new topic for SAP. We have seen the financial impact from this basically since the beginning of our cloud journey almost 10 years ago. And over the years, as we rapidly grew in the cloud during this first phase of the transition, we had very material negative revenue mix effects on margins. Simply because the profitability of those cloud businesses was lower than that of our on-premise business.But since most of that cloud growth came from greenfield opportunities that phase of the transition was always accretive to total revenue and did not put significant pressure on absolute profit. And finally, by end of 2018, our cloud business had reached the scale and efficiency that allowed us to deliver increasing operating margins in 2019 and also in 2020. This quarter was actually another strong proof point for that.Now the first important point to understand is that what we'll be doing now is different. Because this time, we'll be moving large parts of our ERP customer base from on-premise to the cloud. Move them out of the upfront software licensing model and into the ratable subscription licensing model. A little bit like other players, for instance, Adobe have done it before. Though it will not be as rapid in our case as we are talking about an option for the customers.Why does this make financial sense? That's the second important point. Because we are increasing customer lifetime revenue as we're expanding our role from a software vendor to a cloud provider for a significant part of our portfolio. This means we not only deliver software and support services but also we require IT infrastructure and operational services. So we are effectively expanding our share of wallet.The potential uplift here is substantial but even more important is the associated upselling potential of the business technology platform, additional SAP solutions and partner applications developed on top of it. An important thing to keep in mind here is that we do not have to deliver all of that ourselves. But just like today can also procure required capacities from our strategic partners bundled and at scale.However, as we all know, there are timing effects because the license model is upfront and a subscription model is rated. Now what you see here on this slide is actually a very simple model of what revenue looks like for a software license sale, under the on-premise model versus an otherwise identical cloud subscription contract. And it doesn't matter if it's a new customer or an upsell to an existing customer.In a nutshell, what becomes clear is that, one, the cloud transition causes a push of revenue and thus profit to future periods; two, the annual cloud revenue is a bit more than twice as high as the support revenue would have been; three, customer lifetime revenue and value are thus substantially higher; and four, for the transition, initial revenue and profit headwinds turn into tailwinds over time. And all that is for just a like-for-like comparison that still excludes the upsell potential I have mentioned.By 2025, the implications should get us to a total revenue greater than EUR 36 billion, with cloud revenue comfortably eclipsing all other revenue streams combined at more than EUR 22 billion. This is why it is now even more important to expand our cloud gross margin. And to do that, we are now taking the final step in modernizing and harmonizing our cloud delivery, which I'll talk about next. Before going into the details, let me first put this into perspective a bit.Early last year, you reminded us that after years of rapid acquisition-driven cloud expansion, SAP structures and processes had reached a level of complexity and, in some cases, frankly, redundancy that called for reforms. You are right. We answered by setting up the best run transformation program aimed at improving organizational efficiency and agility at the same time. One of the key aspects of Best Run is increasing the efficiency of our cloud delivery. And we have already made great progress in that regard, as shown by the cloud gross margin expansion over the last 2 years. But in order to attain the full benefits of our cloud delivery modernization, we need to take a final step.As you can see on the left of this slide, we have already completed most of the required steps of our cloud delivery modernization. The final remaining step now is to lift the part of our cloud customer base that is still running on our legacy cloud delivery platforms onto either our internal converged cloud or the hyperscalers. In other words, our modernized and harmonized 4 plus 1 cloud delivery. And we are now planning to accelerate this move and complete most of that lift already by end of 2022.We expect this to drive a temporary acceleration of cloud investments through 2022, but the benefits of doing this will be significant. It will increase capacity utilization, will allow us to procure infrastructure or infrastructure services at scale and to automate managed services. That's what will allow us to achieve a cloud gross margin of approximately 80% by 2025.On top, it further increases the stability and resiliency of our cloud solutions and speeds up innovation even in the applications, driving customer success and thus cloud revenue via more cross selling and higher renewals. Again, that is what our customers rightly expect from us, and we have every intent to deliver. So this all then comes together in the new 2025 ambition.The combined impact of what we just discussed means that over the next 2 years, we expect to see muted growth of revenue, accompanied by a flat to slightly lower operating profit. After 2022, momentum will pick up considerably low. The initial headwinds of the accelerated cloud transition will start to turn into tailwinds for revenue and profit. In addition, we will have completed our increased investment into the accelerated cloud delivery modernization. And that translates into accelerated revenue growth and double-digit operating profit growth from 2023 onwards. And so by 2025, we expect this trajectory to take us to cloud revenue greater than EUR 22 billion, total revenue greater than EUR 36 billion and an operating profit of greater than EUR 11.5 billion.This 2025 ambition also means that, one, we will significantly increase our share of cloud revenue, making it by far the primary revenue stream; two, we will significantly increase our more predictable revenue share to about 85%; and three, we will continue to focus on bottom line efficiency. Rest assured that we will continue to drive the Best Run project, streamlining SAP and setting it up for efficiency, simplicity and sustainable long-term success, aiming to come out of the transition with sustainable double-digit operating profit growth from 2023 to 2025 and beyond.I'll now hand back to Christian for closing remarks.
Yes. Thank you, Luka. And before we come to Q&A, let me close it out. We recognize this is a significant change when compared to the previous strategy, the former 2023 ambition. We are at an inflection point where customers are asking us to help accelerate their business transformation to gain resiliency and position them to emerge stronger out of the crisis. We see that as a unique opportunity to partner with our customers on their journey in a way that only SAP can. In large part, due to our deep knowledge of business processes, our innovative solutions and technology and the trust we have established over our operating history. That's why we have adapted our strategy and financial ambition.As the CEO of SAP, I firmly believe that prioritizing sustainable value creation has to be our top priority. Therefore, we will not weigh the success of our customers and the significant growth potential of SAP against short-term margin maximization.Now let's open it up for questions.
Yes, thank you very much. I hand it back to the moderator. You can now start the Q&A session, please.
[Operator Instructions] We'll now take our first question. This question comes from Adam Wood from Morgan Stanley.
I've got 2, please. Maybe just first of all, you've made very clear that there's a big move to cloud underway. And I think everybody will understand that. But in the past, you've given customers choice in terms of how they pay, wherever they run between bringing licenses to hosting deals or paying subscription. We understand that for you, there's a higher lifetime value of customer in subscription. But obviously, for customers, that means they end up paying you more over the lifetime. So could you maybe just help us understand why these large SAP customers now want to run on subscription? And are you forcing that transition or you continue to give choice? So any help you can give us on why that change is happening would be useful.And then maybe secondly, on cloud revenue, you highlighted now, there's a much bigger part of that going to come from cannibalization as on-prem moves to cloud. Is there any way you could help us understand what the underlying growth of new business in the cloud is going to run at versus how much of that cloud revenue is going to come incrementally from cannibalizing the on-premise?
Yes. Thanks a lot, Adam. Let me start, and then Luka, Adaire, you can build on top of that. I mean, first, what we have seen in the last 6 months is definitely when I'm talking to the CEOs, look, I mean for many enterprises, the supply chain is heavily disrupted. They sometimes don't even know, can they produce and deliver the next day. And that is the inflection point of our customers where they are saying, "Hey, I really want to move now to the cloud. I want to have a resilient operation. Why should I still operate my own IT data center?" So that's the first point.And then the second point is, doing a business transformation, Adam, is not easy. So you have to change how our company works. You have to redesign business process. And also our customers, including the large ones, believe let's move to the cloud and also let SAP help us to transform our business, show us the best practices you have for the digital age, let us standardize our solution. And now that the platform is ready, let's also build the exemptions in the cloud and really consume regular innovations on the fly.So besides the commercial aspect, it's really about the resiliency and the transformation of their business. And where is this cloud revenue going to come from? First, yes, of course, there is a change. There is accelerated move of our installed base to the cloud. But second, this quarter, you have heard me saying, 45% of our S/4HANA Cloud customers are net new, which speaks first, for the competitiveness of the solution finally; and second that we will also win in the years to come further market share, not only in S/4, but we really also will double down on HR procurement, on CX, on focused areas in CX, and we will also invest into new innovation, the industry cloud.I mean all of our customers are saying, all in, please help us to really digitize also our industry-related business processes. Because you know what, again, it all goes back into our ERP, it all goes back into our supply chain. Let's try massive business transformation on your platform with the industry cloud in conjunction with our LoB applications. And third, you heard us talking about land, adopt, consume and expand by bringing all of our customer-facing functions together. First, you heard me saying, our customer satisfaction score increased quite significantly. And we are convinced that we will also see high renewal rate in the future.And with that, Luka, Adaire, any comments?
Yes. So just to quickly add, I mean, there is undoubtedly going to be some cannibalization effect on customers moving from established license and support agreements over to subscription. However that is actually not the majority of the growth that we are expecting. We actually assume that we can run a CAGR that is approaching 20% with the new solutions that we're adding in industry cloud, business network and other adjacent areas that we have discussed before, the business technology platform growth that we expect, as well as also the uptick that we expect coming out of the COVID crisis, again, from some of the solutions that have particularly suffered now that are actually clear market leaders, and therefore, can be expected to actually expand their lead and reach after the crisis is over, such as Concur.So the cannibalization impact adds then, so to say, the cream on top of the growth rates but it's not a major, let alone the exclusive, driver of growth. And we will be transparent with you. We will, starting next year, give you clear metrics of the number of customers that have transformed from installed base legacy license arrangements to new subscription options as well as net new customers that we're adding for this as well. You know this reporting from the S/4HANA side, but we will break it out with a particular view to the cloud starting from next year.
Thank you. Next question.
Our next question comes from James Goodman from Barclays.
Maybe I could ask a couple as well. The first is around the customer relationship. I mean I sense within this guidance that you are increasing the emphasis of SAP, owning the customer relationship or providing your own infrastructure or at least passing through more within your own contractual terms, the hyperscaler infrastructure. So can I ask you what that means for your own IaaS expectations as we look out through this transition? And particularly as we look out to the 80% gross margin, target for the cloud. I'm trying to think about the mix of IaaS within that.And the second question, is really just a simple one around the cost investment. There's a lot of moving parts within the numbers. I just wondered, if you look at the 4 to 5 percentage points change that you've put out there for 2023. Can you just help us with the split there in your own modeling between the gross profit impact from the lower revenue and the transitional look that you spoke to versus the magnitude of the incremental investment that will be annualizing in the business at that point?
And maybe I can start and then Luka, you can again build on top of that. I mean you said it very well, actually, it's about owning the customer relationship when it comes to their business transformation. And this is why so key now for SAP that the SAP Cloud Platform is really the foundation of all of our cloud applications. And that, we are actually also delivering the integrations for hybrid lenses that we have an open platform. And now that we are making tremendous progress on the integration front, we are maturing our business services on top of that platform. But think about it when there is one semantical data model. Now we can tell our partners why to modify the ERPs, let's come to the platform and build the extensions there because there is now one semantical data model, there's a workflow, there's the authorization. It's everything what you need to seamlessly expand the SAP solution portfolio.And this is why, on top of our infrastructure-as-a-service business, definitely, we want to push now the platform, and we definitely also want to push all the applications from the Software-as-a-Service business. But that now comes together. At the end, we are selling the product, we are selling the digital intelligent enterprise, we are selling business processes design for the digital age. This is what we are doing and this is what we will also position in the years to come.
Yes. And to build on that, it's very important to understand that we are not positioning an Infrastructure-as-a-Service solution here. We're positioning a holistic solution, moving our customers to the cloud and transforming and modernizing the landscape based on our new ERP application architecture. This offering is, therefore, a Software-as-a-Service offering and not an Infrastructure-as-a-Service offering, where the customer basically would just bring a license, and then we would do the application management on top. That's just very important. And therefore, this will not have a bearing on Infrastructure as a Service.And secondly, on the margin side, we are, of course, anticipating the margin inflow from those additional customers that we're getting in core ERP together with the development of the rest of the portfolio to ultimately then reach the 80% gross margin by 2025.And just to also clarify on 2023, the investments that we are looking to put in and that we are planning to make to kind of reach the home stretch of our converged cloud modernization are actually already going to turn into an operating profit tailwind in 2023. So this is not negatively affecting 2023 any longer. The impact on 2023 margins is basically due to the changed revenue mix that we assume and the shift of the business model to ratable recognition, which will then turn basically increasingly into a tailwind and will allow us to catch up and actually increase the margin again starting from 2023.So from that perspective those incremental investments are actually immediately accretive to operating profit starting already in the year after they have been made.
Thank you. And let's take the next question, please.
Our next question comes from Philip Winslow from Wells Fargo.
A question for Christian and Adaire. If I think back to the financial crisis, obviously, there were a lot of projects that were delayed in late '08 and '09, but then you saw a catch-up in 2010, 2011 in terms of just the license sales and otherwise, projects just getting pushed. How do you think about our current situation? Obviously, you mentioned projects getting delayed and pushed. What are your customers telling you about, hey, have those projects simply been pushed? Have they been shifted to the cloud and sort of the shape of the recovery is just simply different? I mean how should we think about to sort of this crisis versus financial crisis in terms of how you think about sort of the shape of the recovery and what customers are telling you?
Yes. Thanks, Philip, for the question. I'll go first and then perhaps Christian or Luka can add any comments if they have then. I think when we describe projects being pushed, I would describe it as the scale and the scope of the projects being pushed. I think it's very clear in the narrative that we have with our customers that everybody understands the need for the digitization of key business processes so that agility becomes part of their business landscape. So it isn't that the project is stopped, it isn't that it isn't a journey that the customer is on. I would describe it as a much more staged approach than the approaches that we've seen in the past where the work will continue over a period of time. And we can see that even in our own services utilization, where we still have a very significant number in terms of utilized days in our services business.So I see it really as a more recurring element of project stages that the customer commits to rather than a large-scale program of work initially, and that's being what's underpinning some of the conversations that we've had with our customers.
Yes. And I can just comment on the cloud revenue side. I mean obviously we are talking a lot about Concur. And yes, if you exclude our Concur business for travel and expense management, our cloud revenue would be up by 20%. Our Software-as-a-Service solutions are increasing by 26%. So [ see ], there is no real deceleration. And also in all fairness to Concur, mean after the crisis, this is the market-leading solution in the market, full stop, and there will be, of course, a bounce back. It, of course, depends on when can we travel again? When is business travel coming up? So altogether, I'm extremely confident that this business will, of course, come back. It's just the question of timing.
Okay. Thank you. We move to the next question please.
Our next question comes from Michael Briest from UBS.
Two for me as well. Just in terms of the cloud gross margin trajectory, Luka, obviously, there's investments for the next couple of years. Previously, you were looking for a 75% gross margin in 2023. Could you give us a feel of whether that's still intact? And also how much lower the cloud gross margin might go in the next couple of years? And then secondly, also for you, I think, on the free cash flow side, previously, you had a target of EUR 8 billion in 2023. I suspect that's no longer there. But can you talk about cash flow out to '25 and on the CapEx side of things, give some reassurance about where that might go to?
Yes. So let me start with the cloud gross margin. I mean you've seen that we have continued to make progress even in 2020 despite the deceleration that we have seen in our Intelligent spend group, which is by far the highest gross margin and even Concur has still managed to increase its cloud gross margin despite their unique challenges that they are having. So I think it's very clear that we have an utmost focus as a company on this.And the investment, as I said, that we are planning for next year and the year after to accelerate the harmonization of our cloud delivery infrastructure to our converged cloud. As I said before, on the question of James, I think it was, it will be immediately accretive, starting from 2023. So from that perspective, we believe that there is no reason to anticipate any departure from what we had in mind for 2023. And obviously then see further acceleration up to the 80% that we are planning for 2025.For 2021 and 2022 we definitely -- you should assume that there is actually a slowing in progress because we need to make the investments first. Not all of them will flow into cost of cloud to be also quite precise. We will also see some investments in cost of R&D to make sure that some of the solutions that we have not yet fully shifted can run optimally on the new infrastructure. But of course, a lot of it will hit cost of cloud. And therefore, the progress in the next 2 years will be more muted as well. From a free cash flow perspective, look, first of all, we have made tremendous progress, obviously, this year. Not only are we back to the levels of operating and free cash flow that we had committed at last year's Capital Markets Day, where we, of course, had a completely different profit expectation for our business in 2020, but we are actually seeing even an improvement against this original ambition when it comes to free cash flow.So something has happened here, which I believe is also going to be sustainable and that is an improved and more disciplined working capital management and cash collection management. I have to give Adaire and her team a lot of credit here as well, and they have certainly intensified their collaboration with our collection teams and I believe that collaboration is sustainable and should continue to yield results also after the crisis.Nevertheless, you're obviously right that the free cash flow that we had anticipated for 2023 is also packed to a significant spend to the profit levels that we are expecting. And since we are now expecting to reach these profit levels with around about 2 years delay, the free cash flow levels should also be expected to then only be achieved in 2025. Having said that, that is a generalized statement based on all else being equal. And there are a couple of factors that still play a role in this on the positive side. As we have discussed when Qualtrics completes their IPO, their previous cash-settled programs under the SAP setup and plan design would, to a largest extent, convert to equity-settled programs, and that will have some relief as a consequence when it comes to the cash flow.On the flip side, in 2021 and '22, we expect, even though our CapEx spend will remain muted, still a moderate step-up from today's very low levels due to COVID in order to procure some of the additional infrastructure elements that we need for our own converged cloud. And so those 2 factors will, to a certain extent, balance out each other perhaps providing a small tailwind. But other than that, of course, cash flow follows the profits.
And Christian, could you maybe give us an insight into the customer base on S/4 today? You've got 8,100 lives, how many of them would actually be on either the private cloud or the multi-tenant edition of S/4?
Yes. So thanks for the question. I mean, first, we have seen now a massive acceleration of the move also to the cloud version of S/4HANA. As I mentioned before, COVID was indeed an inflection point, and we will see this acceleration in the years to come also for some large enterprise customers. And we will put them on the wide deployment model. This is really then, of course, relating to how standardized is the customer? How designed are the processes to really fit into the standard? How consolidated is the IT landscape? So we will make that work depending on the departure of the customer.And then second, for us, it's very important that we're, of course, delivering the differentiating capabilities. And next year, the public cloud version will have 80% of the functionality, what today, our on-premise version has, this is significant. And we have delivered a new configuration where you can change processes on the fly, we infuse AI. And just to give you an example because there's so much talk about the value of S/4.Just last week, I had an automotive customer of SAP and he said, Christian, because of the move to S/4 and running on HANA, we actually could optimize our inventory and have savings of over EUR 200 million because now suddenly, we can change our inventory and track it real-time and can adjust it based on the demand, what we are seeing. And especially in times like these, where you have such dynamic markets that is a huge, huge value for us.And this is something what we will going to push further and with the new strategy, we're going to invest further in innovation. We invest further in R&D because this is the way to go. This is what our customers want.
And just to be precise. So currently, we have close to 3,000 S/4 cloud customers.
Okay. Thank you. Let's take the next question, please.
Our next question comes from Alex Zukin from RBC Capital Markets.
So just a quick one for me. Can you talk to how much of the delay in the spend that you're seeing or in the larger sales cycle is due to macro versus evaluating some of your new cloud solutions?And if you think about the 2025 vision, approximately what percentage of customers do you expect to shift over the next kind of 2 to 3 years? Or is there a late-cycle accelerated proportion of customers that are going to shift over?
Thanks for the question, Alex. I'll take the first part. In terms of the delay that we've described, I would say it is less about the evaluation process and more about the uncertainty of the conditions. At the start of the COVID process, we were in the fortunate position to be able to pivot our sales force to a virtual engagement of our customer base. We have had in operation for a number of years, a very strong digital selling motion in our commercial sales organization, and we were able to extend the use of those tools and techniques right across the entirety of our sales team. So we still managed to maintain a high level of engagement with our customers albeit that we probably haven't met many customers physically in the last 7 months.Therefore, the delays tend to be delayed around uncertainty in the business model, uncertainty in the business world and uncertainty, I think, relative to the industry that the customer operates in much more than to the evaluation process, which is proceeding as paranym, albeit virtually.
And to your second part of the question, I mean we will, of course, give customers choice also in the future, but COVID will be [indiscernible]. And it really depends on the departure point of the customer. Look, when you -- we have customers, midsized services industry they celebrate go-lives with S/4HANA cloud in 20 days, that's possible, that's absolutely possible. We have large enterprise customers. They are now shifting the workloads to the cloud. But of course, for them, it takes more time to redesign the processes, to come to a standard, to move the modifications out of the ERP. So this will now happen at an accelerated pace. But every customer will move with its own speed.
Okay. Understood. And maybe [ just ] little bit. It's -- yes, I just -- I wanted to ask, is there a good -- like what's the right KPI for us to think about the if you would point us to give investors comfort in kind of that transition versus customers moving to a competitor, defecting to a competitor? What's the right KPI to look at for us during this transition point around that cloud revenue on this?
Yes. In my point of view, it's really the number of migrated customers. As you know, we have slightly more than 30,000 classic ERP customers, not systems, we have way more systems. But in terms of just customer count, that's what we have, and we have 15,000 customers for S/4HANA out there, as I said, close to 3,000 of them in the cloud. So that means another 12,000, basically that have licensed on-premise. And in the next couple of years, we want to move many thousands of those customers. And then, of course, also net new customers to our core ERP cloud solutions.And therefore, we intend to give you in the future, absolutely regular recurring updates as part of the earnings process on those numbers. And certainly, the progress that we have achieved there, where we will now break out between the different deployment forms that should give you the confidence that we are arriving fully in the cloud come 2025.
Okay. Thank you. Let's take the next question, please.
The next question comes from Charlie Brennan from Crédit Suisse.
I'm going to go with 2 as well, if that's possible. Firstly, just a clarification on your cash flow comments. I'm surprised you didn't commit to EUR 8 billion of free cash flow given that the variables of Qualtrics and CapEx should be a net tailwind. Are there any other variables we should be considering, for instance, is there any chance of another restructuring program as you come to terms some scale of the change over the next couple of years?And then secondly, on a separate product-related issue, how important is owning the platform layer of the stack and the strategy? And to what extent do you think you've given up Mindshare to Microsoft and Google? And how hard is it going to be to claw back that Mindshare with customers?
Yes. So first of all, on the cash flow side, you're absolutely right. Of course, we will have benefits from the Qualtrics IPO. And of course, we also continue to have benefits, as you have seen in the significantly reduced levels of CapEx that we had in the last 3 years from our collaboration with the hyperscalers.But that being said, still the source of free cash flow on the operating cash flow side is not entirely decoupled from the level of profit that we can drive as a company and as we are achieving that level of profit, basically with a 2-year shift in 2025 for our ambition that we have put out there. That's when also, I absolutely would expect that we are able to drive for those EUR 8 billion free cash flow.In the meantime, I very much believe that we actually can do better or else be equal on -- in terms of the cash flow generation because we have increased our cash inflow efficiency, our cash collection effectiveness and our working capital management. However, that will not be able to fully equalize the lower profit levels that we are now anticipating in the next few years before that accelerates back again. And perhaps on the platform side, Christian?
Happy to take it, Luka. I mean this is a very valid question. And the platform, the business platform definitely needs to be owned by SAP and now moving our cloud applications over to this platform by following the integration issue by making sure that every of our application, is sharing the same data model, is showing the same authorization and workflow service. That's actually will also make sure that the platform will just become a natural part of every sell we are doing going forward. That's not anymore a stand-alone platform, that's our business transformation platform, let's call it like that, where we then also want to shift the ecosystem to.I mean, today, a lot of our SI partners are building still extensions in the on-premise world. We really now ask them and also incentivize them to China to move with us to the cloud and build the extensions on the platform because now they can do it also in a much more seamless way. Yes, the platform is of -- has the highest importance. And again, with the platform then comes all -- comes also SAP HANA. And underneath, we give customers chance. There, they can either choose a hyperscaler infrastructure, they can choose the SAP infrastructure that was already there in the past, and that has to be proven the right strategy.
Okay. Thank you. Let's take the next question, please.
Our next question comes from Kirk Materne from Evercore.
If I could sneak in 2, I'll try there as well. I guess, just to be very clear, Luka, on the cloud revenue adjustments, outside of currency, is really that from a business perspective, just simply Concur for the next year, meaning it sounds like Qualtrics had a good quarter. The other parts of the cloud business seem to be going well. Is there any other downshift, I mean, Concur, it makes sense while you're expecting a more slow rebound? But I just want to double check on that.And then I guess maybe for Adaire and/or Christian, the question is going to come up a lot is, why are you all seeing delays when a lot of other software companies are frankly starting to see things pick back up? Is it the mix of your business around more impacted industries? Is it -- as you, I think, Adaire mentioned bigger ERP projects just simply getting chopped up into smaller deals or having to rethink that? I think the big question I've got from investors today is, why are you all sort of seeing this whereas at least over the last month or 2, we haven't seen it. Perhaps everything just kind of came to ahead in September. But if you could discuss it a little bit, I think it would be helpful.
Yes. Let me first start. So first of all, it's not only Concur. What we are seeing in terms of impact for the full year. We're not talking about next year yet, by the way. So just to make sure that we are talking about 2020. But Concur is about half the impact that we are seeing, another quarter is the rest of intelligence spend. You probably have seen that in our segment reporting, we are showing that Concur is down in the quarter by 11% and that is a business that otherwise would be expected to grow somewhere in the teens, and that is, of course, all due to COVID.But it's also the case that transactional revenues in Ariba, for example, are not as high as we would have expected for the same reasons. I mean due to COVID, a lot of companies are cutting back on spend. And if you have lower spend and, of course, also a spend network like Ariba is showing less variable expenses. It's still growing. That's the difference to Concur. But you have seen that intelligent spend overall in the quarter was down by 3 percentage points. And that, of course, means that also Ariba is down to a lower level than what otherwise would have been the case.And then the rest of the last quarter is really a slight reductions in renewal rates or new cloud bookings across the entire rest of the spectrum versus the levels that we would have targeted and planned for in a normal pre-COVID, business-as-usual scenario.Having said that, however, that's something that we had planned for. The big shift is that on the transactional revenues. We had originally anticipated a recovery in the second half year, which we are now not planning for anymore.
Yes. And then I mentioned already the growth rate we are seeing in our Software-as-a-Service and Platform-as-a-Service business. And with 26%, I would say we are definitely also lying in the upper end also compared to competition. So this business developed under these circumstances extremely well. And there is, of course, also high confidence that for the next year that we will see similar growth. And then, of course, also, we are talking about an acceleration latest in the second half year of 2021. As -- when we talk supply chain, when we talk experience management, when we talk finance, changing, license models for our customers selling subscription, selling pay-as-you-go, these are all solutions, which are highly relevant for our customers. So yes, there is a high confidence that we will definitely also see a reacceleration then next year.
And perhaps to close this out, it works both ways. While in a classic subscription model, the slowdown in revenues due to such a crisis situation, of course, is happening at a slower pace. But on the other hand side, to accelerate a subscription business also takes its time because, first, you need to go through the selling, then the installation, and then you start to recognize revenues. In a business network model that is transaction volume-based like with Concur and Ariba both happens faster. So the downturn happens faster, but also once the business picks up again and the spend increases and travel is happening again, then of course, the variable revenues also start to kick in immediately. And hence, that's why we assume that if the COVID restrictions are lifted, then as of the second half year, we will see actually a quite fast reacceleration back to normal levels.
And finally, maybe, Kirk, let me address the question around the delay. So first of all, I think it's important to place this in the context of the overarching portfolio of SAP. So we have a very broad portfolio of products, which is something that, of course, continues to make us extremely relevant to our customers. In some of our pure-play SaaS solutions, we defined a program that we call Amplify which was a program focused on low upfront investments on deployment in days and weeks and very click value realization for our customer base. And in those scenarios, we definitely saw some uptake of those solutions because the gap between speed and value was very, very small. And we saw over 110 new customers, over 1,100 deals under the auspices of that particular program.Then when you look at the actual underpinning business transformation that is predicated on S/4 as a core. I guess the first point of discussion with customers is around cost and managing and mitigating cost in the current environment. And there are a series of activities that can be done to help manage that. Then the second range of conversations is about the migration itself or about the journey to value. And in the context of that, there are different departure points. Each of our customers, of course, has a very unique environment today, but then also different destination points. And it is a matter of looking at that in a modular way so that over the lifetime of that transformation journey, you're delivering value all along the way in relation to the priorities that the customers have set.And I do think there was an element of timing in terms of the last month of Q3 and some of the changes that we saw in the resurgence of COVID at a point where we had transactions in close process. So I think a combination of those things we have different portfolios with different profiles of solution sets, long-term transformation becoming modular and then a little to do with the timing of our Q end.
Thank you. Let's take the next question, please.
We'll now take our next question from Mark Moerdler from Bernstein Research.
I have 2 parts to my question. The first is, if the transactional headwind from COVID is expected to be over within the next year to 2, then how should we think about 2023 in the transactional business? Is there going to be a permanent delay on the transactional side that you're modeling in? Or should it bounce back equivalently? And then as a second question, for new sales, which used to create license, how big a step down are you now expecting in license sales, specifically through 2023, is basically, should we be figuring license sales are basically going away by 2023?
Yes. Perhaps I'll start with the last one and Adaire, please augment this. I mean licenses would not certainly go away by 2023. However, they will certainly continue to decline. And I would estimate at a similar rate of what we are seeing now in 2020. And on the transactional business side, I see no reason why in 2 years' time assuming that COVID is really past and behind us sometime next year that transactional revenues should not, by 2023, be back at the level that they were before in 2019 and grow from there as they have done in the past. So...
All good.
So that makes this joint statement from Adaire and myself, then it must be true.
Okay. Thank you. Let's take the next question, please.
Our next question comes from Chandra Sriraman.
A couple, if I may. So when I look at your 2025 guidance, if my calculations are correct, there's a mid-single-digit drop in maintenance revenues through 2025. Now I just wanted to check if the cloud business will be profitable enough to compensate for this drop as we go beyond 2023 and how should we see the move or the substitution of maintenance with subscription beyond 2023.The second question is more of a clarification. Luka, you mentioned that these ERP customers will move to the SaaS/PaaS model. So I was just wondering, would you continue selling the Infrastructure as a Service? Or will these customers be migrated to the SaaS/PaaS model?
Yes. So perhaps first with the question on maintenance versus cloud. I mean that is one of the reasons why we are now accelerating and planning to kind of complete the migration to a converged cloud infrastructure more quickly because that is giving us a step-up in the cloud efficiency. That on a gross margin level already is in striking distance with our software and support business and that is very positive because if you then assume from a long-term perspective that the cloud business has an ever-increasing share of renewal components that are commanding a lower commission rate than a net new sale actually on the operating margin level, the cloud will then quickly catch up with the efficiency levels of our on-premise business. You have actually seen a part of that already at work today. But of course that impact will be significantly higher even once we have built such a high base cloud revenues.And on the Infrastructure-as-a-Service piece, I think you will see over time that certainly a growing proportion of our existing enterprise cloud customers will move over to a more holistic SaaS offering that gives them the entire scope, including also subscription. We actually offer this to our customers in -- within the HANA Enterprise Cloud already today as an option. But given our increased capabilities in the cloud that we're looking at, I think it will increase significantly now in attractiveness and will lead to more pure HANA enterprise cloud customers making the move over.
Okay. Thank you. Let's take the next question please.
Our next question comes from Julian Serafini from Jefferies.
I have 2 questions. I think number one is on Luka, I believe you mentioned the cloud uplift multiplier that was around 2x maintenance. Can you confirm that, so that would imply roughly a 5-year crossover on the revenue side, considering all things equal that when a cloud contract would be revenue accretive for SAP?And then the second question is on sales compensation, probably for Adaire. Will there be changes to sales compensation going forward and I guess, to emphasize more cloud products away from the license and maintenance model?
I can quickly go first. So it's actually a bit more than twice the support revenue. If you apply a multiplier or actually if you apply a 0.45 multiplier to a EUR 1 million license contract, plus 20% support, that would translate into a 450,000 subscription at equal value, so slightly more than twice.
And Julian, thank you for the question. Sales compensation is certainly one lever that facilitates change and transformation. This year, as Christian mentioned in his opening remarks, we've brought together all of the customer-facing resources of SAP into a single organizational unit that includes not just sales, but also all of the services resources of the company, together with all of the customer facing, post-sales support resources.We underpinned this organizational change with an operating model that focuses not just on the landing or the bringing of a new customer into the SAP family. But also focuses very much on the adoption and the consumption of SAP solutions in order to drive business outcome and business value for our customers. Therefore, in addition to this organizational change, in addition to this new operating model, in addition to the appropriate management and governance over the top of that, we will, of course, look at our compensation plans in order to ensure that they're aligned with that strategy. And as I mentioned, that strategy focuses as much on the adoption and the consumption of our software as it does on the initial transaction with our customer base.I also get a sense that the question was around how we would be addressing or directing our sales force's efforts around the different elements of the portfolio. I think it's important, again, to emphasize that we have always been predicated on choice for our customers, and we will continue to be predicated on choice. There are absolutely some customers that for a variety of reasons would want to remain in an on-premise world. However, there is no doubt that the vast majority of our customers are orientated towards this cloud migration, and our compensation will take that into consideration.
Thank you. Let's take the next question please.
Our next questions comes from Neil Steer from Redburn Partners.
I've got a couple, if I may. Firstly, Luka, did you confirm in your response to a previous question that we should think modeling the maintenance revenues declining mid-single-digit levels by the time we get beyond 2023? Was that what you seem to be confirming or not?
Yes, a mid-single-digit negative decline CAGR, given the accelerated transformation to the cloud is directionally correct.
Okay. And then just looking at the slides, I think I understand the revenue trajectory for cloud, obviously, but you seem to reference in the slide deck that you're going to invest in industry cloud functionality, other than the industry cloud functionality, where are, specifically the other investments coming through that hit the profitability so much in '21 and '22?
Well, on the '21 and '22 thing, that is really related to planned infrastructure harmonization investment. So we are migrating customers that are still sitting on the legacy infrastructures of some of our -- in particular, acquired cloud solutions, but also some of our own-developed solutions to our converged cloud. And that has infrastructure investments that has some, as I said, development efforts attached to optimize the performance of those solutions on the new infrastructure. And of course, it also includes the pure migration cost for our customers.So that has nothing to do with investments that we are doing as part of our portfolio process on the R&D side to build out new organic solutions, which we are nevertheless doing as well, and that's industry cloud, but it's also other areas of the portfolio. We're investing significantly also in our business technology platform. And of course, we continue to invest in those solutions where we clearly have a leading position in the market and want to retain it as well.
Okay. So sorry to ask a final question. But in the past, when you talked about the converged cloud infrastructure, you've obviously talked about migrating over SuccessFactors, which I think is supposed to be done by the first half of last year. If you look at the proportion of subscribers or users on the legacy line of business or solutions, what in total of those have been migrated over to converged cloud infrastructure? And how much of those legacy line of business users need to move over to the new -- to the cloud infrastructure now?
Yes. So thanks for raising this question because I think it allows me to clarify something. The migrations that we have been talking about SuccessFactors and also Ariba, they were database migrations. We were migrating the underlying third-party database to HANA. And that was giving us already significant benefits, and you see them in the cloud gross margin to date.What we have also done is we have made sure that all of our core solutions run on one or more hyperscalers and on our converged cloud infrastructure. What we have not done yet is migrating all of the existing customers that are sitting on the previous legacy infrastructures over to the new one. And that is what we are now giving a strong push and what we are looking to accelerate forward.And once we have accomplished this, we can retire our legacy platforms, and we have various other benefits in terms of automation that we can leverage for greater efficiencies. But the database migration, that was what we were talking about in the past. And indeed, this has been accomplished already with the current positive benefits for cloud margins that we are seeing already in our actual current numbers.
And so we can [indiscernible] roughly 100% still, in terms of users, are still on their existing legacy platforms today, is that correct?
No, that's not right because we have already, since some time started to onboard new customers on those converged cloud landscapes, but it's correct that still a majority of the existing customers are on those legacy platforms and that's what we are going to move over quickly now.
Okay. Thank you. Looking at the time, I think we have time for one final question.
We'll now take our last question from Patrick Walravens from JMP.
And maybe this is a good way to wrap it up. So Christian, thank you for all the commentary in detail today. Given the stock drop, which I think is the biggest in quite a while. If there's one key message you'd like to convey to your investors here, what would that be?
So thanks a lot for that question. And indeed, of course, coming from the stock price, you see that we actually made today a decision which is actually, it's a response to the needs of our customers. And look, as the CEO of SAP, I cannot hold on to a financial midterm ambition, which is actually, against the needs of our customers. When they want to move and they want to transform, and they want to see more organic innovation from SAP, this is, for me, on the long term, the right thing to do for SAP, and this is actually my top priority as the CEO of this company, and this is why we are doing this change.And one thing for sure, because also related to the last question, we are not getting sluggish on our commitment to drive profitable growth in the future. I mean all the impacts you're now seeing is weather-related macroeconomic or you see the revenue mix effect coming through. And -- but on the other productivity parameter, no matter if it's go-to-market related, G&A-related, we are not getting sluggish. We will, of course, also have a high focus on productivity.And on the investment side, on the cloud operations, I mean, when you are now doing this massive shift and already tripling your cloud revenues towards 2025, you don't want to feed your money into some legacy cloud infrastructure. This is why we want to do our homework now and come back to double-digit growth on operating profit from 2023 onwards on because, again, I don't want to feed money into a legacy infrastructure. This is why we are doing this in combination. And as I said, finally, to wrap it up, we are doing it for our customers.
Thank you, Pat, for your last question. This concludes our earnings call for today. Thank you all for joining, and you can now disconnect. Bye-bye.
Thank you. Bye-bye.
Thank you, take care.