K&S AG
XETRA:SDF
Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2023 Analysis
K&S AG
The company had a solid quarter with increased demand, particularly from the agriculture customer segment, aided by price recovery in key markets such as Brazil. In Europe, pricing stabilized at attractive levels. The company has reaffirmed its EBITDA guidance for the year, projecting it to be in the range of EUR 600 million to EUR 800 million, with free cash flow anticipated between EUR 300 million and EUR 450 million.
The company is planning to return 30% to 50% of its free cash flow to shareholders, via dividends or share buybacks. The decision will be influenced by the business outlook, taking into account the volatility of the business and expected CapEx for projects like [Vera] 2060 and [Bison]. The annual CapEx is estimated at around EUR 600 million for the coming years.
Demand for the company's products has been strong globally, with European demand exceeding expectations and Southeast Asia returning to normal levels. Competition has eased as both the company and its competitors have nearly sold out inventory. The fourth quarter is primarily focused on delivery rather than securing new contracts.
The guidance range for earnings and cash flow remains wide due to some volatile items, especially gas prices which are partially bought on spot markets. The guidance range is broad to accommodate unexpected fluctuations but the company suggests that the midpoint of the range is most probable.
The company is planning to ship over 2 million tonnes in Q4, despite uncertainties including potential Deutsche Bahn strikes. The ability to deliver this volume has been proven in the past, and there's confidence in meeting these targets unless unforeseen logistic challenges occur. Free cash flow could benefit from inventory movement as a result of these shipments.
The company has seen declining costs due to lower spot prices for energy and freight. These reductions are expected to continue into Q4 and the following year. For 2024, they aim to reduce costs further, including energy costs below EUR 40 per megawatt hour due to hedging strategies. About 80% of the next year's energy has been hedged with a rate below EUR 40 per megawatt hour.
Following tax refunds in Q3, increased taxes are expected in Q4 based on annual results. There are some risks associated with Deutsche Bahn logistics which could affect shipments within Germany, impacting free cash flow projections. Despite the uncertainties, the company appears well-positioned to handle the shipping requirements.
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Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the K+S Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. We hope you had a chance to review our posted slides as well as our Q3 documents available on the website. After some opening remarks by Dr. Lohr, we will directly jump into Q&A. Some technical notes. Please refer to our disclaimer on Page 2 of the presentation.
A note on data privacy. Please note that the Teams session will be recorded webcast and available as a replay on our home page afterwards. People asking a question in the team session, have to be aware that by turning on the camera and microphone they give consent to saving and replaying video and audio sequences.
Now I would like to turn over to Dr. Lohr for the opening remarks.
Thank you, Julia. Good morning, and welcome to our Q3 earnings discussion. After my opening remarks, we will directly start with the Q&A, and I will answer your questions together with my colleague, Christian Meyer, our CFO.
Overall, Q3 was a solid quarter that performed somewhat better than initially expected. We saw a significant increase in demand and this enabled a significant volume increase in our agriculture customer segment and finally resulted in the expected price recovery in the important overseas market of Brazil.
In Europe, price have even stabilized on a more attractive level. For 2023, as a whole, we confirm our forecast for EBITDA and free cash flow. That means we continue to expect the EBITDA to be between EUR 600 million and EUR 800 million and the free cash flow to range between EUR 300 million and EUR 450 million.
I want to provide you with some details around our new distribution strategy. Shareholder participation will be linked to the free cash flow, and we want to return 30% to 50% of that figure to our owners. This will be done via dividend, which can be combined with a share buyback, if appropriate. The possible combination of both instruments should also reduce dividend volatility.
During the last weeks, there was some fuss about the supply/demand situation of the world potash market in the upcoming years. Therefore, I would like to share our view on this. You should see a slide now to illustrate these thoughts. It shows that if you apply an annual demand growth of 2.5%, which is the current IFR forecast, the market will need substantial volume additions to the upcoming years to supply this growth. Even if Phase 1 and 2 of BHP Jansen will come on stream in time, and assuming half of the 11 million tonnes of capacity extension that Russia and Belarus has announced before the war will be seen, there will be an attractive capacity utilization on the world potash market. And this assumes no capacity will have disappeared from the market until then. You see, we are talking about the balanced situation. Thank you.
Thank you very much, Dr. Lohr. Now we would like to start the Q&A session. If you would like to ask a question, please use hand signal and write your name and the name of your research house in the MS Teams chat function. We will then call you individually, and you can address your questions to us live. Please switch on your camera.
One more request, as usual, we would like to answer your questions 1 by one. So if you have multiple questions, please ask 1 question at a time, and we will answer it first. After that, you will have the opportunity to ask further questions.
The first question comes from Alexander Jones from Bank of America.
2, if I may, but I'll start with the first, as you requested on demand trends. You talked a little bit about a significant increase in demand during the quarter. Could you perhaps give us a bit more of an idea what you're seeing now in each of the important demand regions of the world?
Yes, thank you for that question. We have seen in almost all areas in the world, strong demand. And in Europe, it's not on the level that we have seen before the war, but that if we would have the same level that could not be met the demand due to the sanction, as we all know, we have seen a little bit more volumes from Eastern Europe and Brazil. That is, for us, the answer on the question, why is the Brazilian price flat, more or less, although the demand is strong, but we see that, that helps in other regions of the world. Europe is on a higher level than we have expected, and it looks like this will continue, and we also expect the European demand coming back step by step. And the weakest area, Southeast Asia is also back to more or less normal. So we are quite happy that you have learned -- we all have learned that our competitors are more or less sold out. Same is true for us. Now Q4 is more a question of delivery than a question of new contracts.
Excellent. And then the second question, just on the guidance for this year. The ranges for both earnings and cash flow is still fairly wide, given we've only got 1.5 months left. Could you talk a little bit about why you've decided to keep them so wide and perhaps where within those ranges you'd be expecting to fall as of today?
Yes, good question because in the past, we have always ranged -- narrowed the range. But this year, we are seeing so many -- not so many, but some items which are quite volatile. Let's take the gas price. This goes up and down and up and down. As you know, we have still a portion that we have to buy on spot. And as I said, volumes, we have to deliver more than 2 million tonnes, and there might be hiccups. We are closed in front of the winter season. Price will not have such a dominating impact, but still a small one, and we decided to keep the range as it is, but there is no message behind.
The next question comes from Christian Faitz from Kepler Chevreux.
One question, please, and then I have a second one. If my math is correct, nominal sales for Latin America in Q3 are down some 72%. Can you tell us a bit more about current dynamics in the southern hemisphere markets. I mean, obviously, I understand the pricing dynamics. But have you also seen that like other -- let's say, agricultural peers are seeing that higher interest rates are causing obviously, the pharma branded financing to slow down a bit. That would be my first question.
Yes. Thank you, Mr. Faitz. Of course, that has an impact, but there are many other indicators who impact the demand situation. And as I said in the earlier answers, the demand is almost everywhere quite strong. And our regional footprint is impacted, for example, by the European situation. We have the highest netbacks here now. There is not much competition. That's why we focus on Europe first. And as we see, Brazil is strong in demand, but prices are flat. We have also reallocated some volumes into other regions. That is more or less the answer on why our regional split has changed.
Okay. Great. And my second question on your consensus range, which you have left unchanged. I mean, there's 6 weeks to go in the year. Why is it still so relatively wide? What would be the factors influencing that EUR 200 million delta?
Yes. Again, the gas price isn't -- was at least the cause for us to discuss how wide do we want to have the range because it doubled in a couple of days. We've seen that in the past. And we still have a portion that we have buy on spot. We do not know if there are any hiccups in our logistics, for example, Deutsche Bahn might do something crazy. But we just feel much better with a wider range. But again, there's no message behind the most -- the highest probability is the midpoint of that range.
Currently, I'm not seeing further questions. Are there any further questions? Christian has another one.
Can you -- I mean, obviously, we've seen a rather mild start to the fall/winter this season, and I know you gave an indication on volumes in de-icing just under EUR 2 million. But can you confirm that so far, weather conditions in Europe or de-icing have been, let's say, to say the least, dismal?
Yes, that's true. We -- it's in almost all de-icing sold regions quite mild. Some years ago, we had nice winter weather in November, then mild December, and it came back in January, but our forecast more or less are based on the Q1. We are not expecting much in November and December. We're seeing some stocking by meant, pre-stocking volumes, but not no application on the roads so far.
We have 1 written question by Michael Schaefer from ODDO because he has problems with a technical system, I guess. He is asking you reported declining costs in Q3 price-wise for the first time over recent years. How should we think about Q4 costs and outlook on costs into 2024?
Yes. With regards to the decline of the price costs, these are especially what already mentioned, the lower spot prices for energy costs on the 1 hand, then lower freight costs that already -- was realized in Q3. With regard to Q4, as Burkhard already mentioned, that will be dependent on the final spot rates and the freights will be lower, but we will see what finally happens in Q4 due to other impacts that we are not able to forward right now.
And for 2024?
With regard to 2024, our expectation is that we are able to reduce once more, the cost, especially with regard to also to the energy cost due to our hedging strategy so that we will be at least a little bit for the gas price below EUR 40 per megawatt hour, and we will also see lower freight costs. So our expectation is with regard to these 2 positions in total there will be a reduction up to EUR 100 million for the next year.
Okay. Then we have 1 hand signal from a phone number, and we had some problems in the past. So I hope it works. It's a London phone number. So if you have dialed in via phone and want to ask your question, it's your chance now.
Hello, can you hear me?
Yes.
Great. Sorry, I missed the beginning of the call. I couldn't get on the system. It's Charlie from Jefferies. Just in terms of this point around what maximum leverage could be? I mean like if I take Q3 multiplied by 4, it would get me to a number, which would tell me that leverage couldn't be kind of higher than kind of EUR 300 million or so. Is that -- how should I be thinking about what you would think about as the kind of minimum EBITDA you'd be using in that calculation?
And then secondly, just if I think about your net realizations on specialties, should I be thinking about kind of the 60% level versus kind of SOP prices going forward? Is that kind of a reasonable level?
Yes. Let's start with the first one. And frankly, the Q3 is not the perfect quarter to multiple it with -- by 4. Just for 1 single reason, we have almost all maintenance breaks in Q3. So the volumes are not representative for the rest of the year. And it's -- again, then you end up with a number which is fully easily too small. But the question behind this is, of course, how serious do you take a 1.5x, and I have to say very serious. And that shows that we are planning to be financially disciplined. And on a net base, we have no debt at all, but you know that Standard & Poor's, for example, also calculates our noncurrent provisions, mostly mining provisions only a little bit of pensions into that calculation. And that drives this number. But again, we are expecting higher EBITDAs than 4x Q3, and we are going to be financially disciplined to stick to the 1.5x.
Second, I'm not sure if I got that. You talked about specialties and SOP 60%?
So the question was, is it right to assume for the full ASP of the specialty, 60% of the SOP price? Is that a good way to look at the ASP of the specialties?
No, that's too much because, of course, we have some products with a very nice premium. Although they are produced to the same costs and MOP, that's why a cost-to-cost comparison to our competitors is comparing apple to peaches. But we also have some products with a lower K2O content and lower pricing. So by heart, I cannot give you a percentage, but 60% is too high. But 1 thing is, I think that gives me the chance to mention 1 thing. If you compare our average ASP to the ASPs of the competition, we had a real good quarter. That's true.
Okay. I guess just on that first question, I was just trying to get back down to essentially what kind of the trough EBITDA you're basing that 1.5x on.
Okay. Thank you. The next question comes from Oliver Schwarz from Warburg.
Yes. Ladies and gentlemen, 2 of them, please. Firstly, free cash flow generation in Q4. Can you just shed some light on the bits and pieces here? I guess we'll see well, that might not be free cash flow relevant. But anyways, we might see a reassessment of the long-term mining provisions. That will have an EBITDA impact eventually, but there's also the issue of cash taxes. Can you flesh out whether you expect cash taxes in Q4 to be more or less, I guess, in line with P&L taxes or whether there will be an overshooting or undershooting to that number?
And also in regards to working capital, obviously, with the 2 -- more than 2 million tonnes you would like to ship in the last quarter, that will result in a major inventory drawdown, I guess. So could you also shed some light on the working capital movements, please? That would be my first question.
Okay. Maybe first, starting with the tax cash out that could be expected for Q4. As I mentioned at the beginning, there was a -- based on the high expectation for the whole year, there were a lot of prepayments for taxes then we reduced our expectation for the year. So there were tax refunds in Q3, especially due to the fact that the European business was pretty good that the tax will increase again. So there, we will expect some tax payments in Q4 based on the results for the whole year.
And with regard to the working capital, there we have a reduction of the working capital, as you see in our numbers. With regard to Q4, that mainly depends on the structure of our sales regions. The maturity in the European business is much shorter. So that's possible to collect finally the sales price already in Q4 if you -- for the selling that goes to overseas, there the maturities are much longer. So that finally will depend mainly on the combination of the regions where we are going to sell the product.
Okay. That's the receivable part of things. Any idea about inventory shifts?
Yes, that mainly depends if the shipments are still in Q4 or in Q1 of the next year. So there are some uncertainties with regard to the inventories. But at present, it looks pretty good that the shipments we are expected will be done. But as Burkhard already mentioned, there are some uncertainties, especially with regard to the Deutsche Bahn, what they -- what we expect for the next weeks if there will be some delays with shipments to our parts in Germany. So there are some risks at the end.
Yes. And that basically brings me perfectly to my second question, I guess, and that is the viability of your logistics in the light of your plans to ship more than 2 million tonnes in Q4, that seems to me personally, I might be wrong here, but that seems to be a bit of a stretch. Have you ever, at least in the current structure of the mines you're operating, have you ever been able to ship that amount and you already alluded to some bottlenecks probably by Deutsche Bahn. And maybe other factors might have an impact here, how -- let's say, how probable from your point of view, is it that you might be able to ship more than 2 million tonnes in Q4 alone?
Yes, good question. It's really more than 2 million in the stretch, but we have proven that. We have done in the past. I think the record was close to 2.2 million tonnes. And when we talk about risks, there's only 1 real potential risk. We have -- as we know, we have enough water in the rivers or dryness in this quarter. Anyway, it's not an issue. We have in Canada, strike situation anymore. There might be a strike coming up in Germany. It remains to be seen, but most probably more at the end of this quarter. Besides that, we only talk about slipping vessels from Q4 into Q1. So it can happen if you miss the loading date by 1 day instead of 31st of December, it's first of January, then you -- all in a sudden, have the volumes in the next quarter, but that is not really a risk. And we are not talking about big volumes. So the 2 million should be doable and hopefully more. And then, of course, coming back to your initial question, then the free cash flow will also have a tailwind from the inventory situation.
Thank you much I've got -- sorry.
No, go ahead.
Okay. Thank you for that. I've got a third one, which -- let's see whether you might be willing to answer that. It seems like consensus said that -- no, sorry, that 2024 results might be EBITDA more or less on the same level as in 2023. With the [ Vera ] program, ongoing CapEx is likely to rise probably working capital movements won't be that prominent in 2024. So what level of free cash flow adjusted, do you imagine you could provide on the basis of, give or take, EUR 700 million EBITDA next year? Just to get a feeling what might be available for distribution?
Okay. Unfortunately, you are correct. We are not willing to talk about EBITDA and free cash flow of 2024. It was a real nice try, and I was very close to answering it. But please understand that we want to give you fresh information in March about that.
I'll try to be even more sneaky next time. Thank you.
We have another London dial-in number. And yes, please try if the line works. Okay. This doesn't seem to be the case. We try it again. And now we take another question of Alexander Jones of Bank of America.
Great. Sorry for the follow-up. Just on your past comments, Dr. Lohr on a possible strike in Germany. Could you give us a little more color on that and maybe more generally, the labor cost environment for Germany into next year?
Yes. One of the many unions working for the Deutsche Bahn has started negotiations with the Deutsche Bahn and they said that they see a high probability for a strike. I know from the Deutsche Bahn that they will do the utmost to avoid that, but you never know. So -- and that might happen around Christmas because that has the most impact because whole Germany is traveling. That might not have such a big impact on us. But I think it's fair to mention that.
And the second part of the question, we have already done our homework. I think we had a very good result for 2023, and we have a 2% flat increase for 2024. So we have clear visibility on labor cost.
The next question comes from [indiscernible].
Yes, also from my side. I just wanted to follow up again on the cost expectations for next year, especially in regards to gas prices. Maybe you can update us again on the hedging that you've done now running into 2024? Because if I look at it, I think you had about 70%, if I remember correctly, hedged for this year which would bring my average gas cost more to around EUR 30 to EUR 32 per megawatt hour. And therefore, on the current spot price, it would rather be that I see cost increases on the gas prices for next year. So maybe you can run us through how you expect gas prices or your gas cost to be lower next year?
Yes. With regard to this year, we have a level of round about EUR 50 per megawatt hour that is hedged for the next year. There's already around about 80% hedged, and our hedging rate per megawatt hour is a little bit below EUR 40 at present. So that's the correct calculation with regard to our hedging strategy.
The hedging amount of this year was 90%, not 70%, [ Constantine ].
Yes. Okay. And I think the last 20% were hedged in '22, somewhat around there. And therefore, that's not really hedging on an attractive level anymore. Yes.
Okay. So the London number is still dialed in. Maybe it's JPMorgan, but please try.
This is Angelina for JPMorgan. Can you hear me?
I can hear you.
Yes. Great. I just have a quick follow-up on the shareholder distribution policy that was announced today. If you could possibly give us any color on what additional indicators you will be taking into account and maybe what levels of these indicators as you decide between 30% and 50% adjusted free cash flow distribution?
Yes. With regard to the distribution policy between 30% and 50% finally, that mainly depends on the outlook for the business, especially on the fact that we have a relative volatile business. So at the end of the year, we have some more expectations for the next year and especially when the dividend decision is made during March finally and in May on the AGM. So that will also be reflected in the final decision. And what you -- what we also wanted to include in our decision is that what are the expectations with regard to the CapEx programs, especially with regard to our [ Vera ] 2060 and [ Bison ] ramp-up program. You know that we are calculating around about EUR 600 million of CapEx each year for the next years. So that will be the main indicators.
I don't see any further questions. So last chance.
Yes. And if this is not the case, I say thank you very much in the name of the whole team. It was a pleasure to have you in this call. It was quite -- it was a quarter with less events compared to the past. So still many questions. Thank you very much for that. There was no question to our view on the mid- to long-term balance of demand and supply. Obviously, the message was well received because that's important for us because after another view on that, we have seen a share price reaction, which was overdone from our perspective. We are optimistic. And I think with these words, I would like to close the call. Thank you very much, and hope to see you soon again.