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Intrinsic Value is all-important and is the only logical way to evaluate the relative attractiveness of investments and businesses.
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to CCI Third Quarter 2018 Results Conference Call.
I now hand over to your host, Mr. Burak Basarir, CEO; Mr. Michael Coombs, CFO; Ms. Yesim Tohma, Head of Investor Relations. I will now hand over to your host, Ms. Yesim Tohma, Head of Investor Relations. Madam, please go ahead.
Thank you, Ariane. Good morning, and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to our third quarter results webcast. Today, our CEO, Burak Basarir, will briefly talk about our operations. Then our CFO, Michael Coombs, will share with you the financial review. Following closing remarks by our CEO, we will then start the Q&A session.
Before we begin, please kindly be advised of our cautionary statement that this conference call may contain forward-looking management comments, including projection, and these should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary language contained in the earnings release. A copy of the earnings release and financials are available on our website at www.cci.com.tr.
Now let me turn the call over to Mr. Basarir.
Thank you, Yesim. Good morning and good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today.
We are delighted to record another period of quality growth leading to our fifth consecutive quarter of year-on-year margin expansion. We grew our revenue ahead of volume and EBITDA ahead of net revenue both in the third quarter and in the first 9 months of the year. The strong momentum created in the first half was carried into the third quarter with a solid high season performance.
We continue to evolve our portfolio through driving IC packs and gaining market share in almost all of our markets. As a result, we completed the first 9 months of the year with 8% volume, 27% net revenue and 43% EBITDA growth. Moreover, our continued focus on effective hedging and improving efficiency translated into margin expansion. Consolidated EBITDA margin continued to increase, driven by both Turkey and our international operations.
Let me move to Page 5, and let's start with our volume development in the first 9 months. We are pleased to report that the volume growth was broad based across all of our regions. Both Turkey and international operations achieved accelerated performance over the past 3 years and on 9-month basis. Throughout the first 9 months, successful execution of our portfolio strategy, cooler investments and widening availability resulted in value share gains in all our key markets.
Our Turkey operations generated 30 million unit cases of incremental volume in the first 9 months. International operations delivered more than 9% growth in the same period, adding 46 million unit cases of volume. Overall, we've recorded 76 million unit cases of incremental volume on a consolidated basis in the first 9 months, which is almost like adding a new geography into our business.
Let me move to next page, please. Looking at our performance by category. All of our categories except the non-ready-to-drink tea delivered growth in the third quarter. The Sparkling category grew by 4%, posting growth in all of our major markets. We are pleased to see sustained growth in Sparkling in Turkey while Pakistan, our second largest market, posted more than 5% growth on a consolidated increase in the category. Brand Coca-Cola registered mid-single-digit growth on a consolidated basis, with double-digit growth in international operations.
In the first 9 months of the year, Sparkling grew by almost 9% and delivered 63 million unit cases of incremental volume. Stills grew by 9%, mainly driven by robust growth of Ice Tea in the Central Asia region, which rose by more than 40% in Kazakhstan, with significant value share gains. Moreover, juice grew in Turkey and Central Asia, too.
The Water category delivered a modest but healthy growth of 1%, driven by immediate consumption packages. The share of immediate consumption packs in total Water portfolio continued to increase in line with our focus on improving the category profitability. Finally, non-ready-to-drink tea volume contracted mainly due to price increases implemented to improve category profitability.
Moving on to Turkey business. We've achieved the biggest high season volume in Turkey, supported by continued growth in Sparkling category. Our successful portfolio strategy, effective pricing and focused cost management enabled us to maintain the quality growth trends.
In the third quarter, all categories, except non-ready-to-drink tea delivered growth. Excluding NRTD Tea, volume was up by 2%, demonstrating a favorable sales mix. Effective consumer promotions, increased cooler investment and continued focus on No Sugar portfolio were the primary drivers of growth. A higher number of tourist arrivals and favorable weather conditions also contributed to the growth in the quarter. On the other hand, weakening consumer sentiment in the month of September had some adverse impacts on our momentum.
Sparkling category delivered 1% growth in the quarter and more than 8% in the first 9 months. The share of IC packages in the Sparkling category rose to 23%. The Low/No Calorie segment grew by more than 30% in the first 9 months via Coca-Cola No Sugar. It is also worth mentioning that Sparkling recorded the highest ever third quarter volume shares since 2014.
Stills grew by 1% following effective promotions and media activation of Fuse Tea brand. We've reached the highest-ever value shares in Ice Tea in the third quarter of 2018. Juice volume was up by 2%, helped by our focus on Cappy Pulpy product.
The Water category delivered 3.5% volume growth while the share of IC packages increased by 2 percent points year-on-year basis. Strong growth in one-way bottles also made a positive contribution to our profitability. We continued to [ improve ] sales mix through the successful execution of our portfolio initiatives. This was also reflected in top line performance and increasing NSR per unit case.
Our revenue growth management initiatives and disciplined cost management continue to drive profitability as we recorded the sixth consecutive quarter of year-on-year EBITDA margin expansion in Turkey. Meanwhile, we continue to address affordability through our competitive pricing strategy and plan to deliver balanced top line growth, driven by volume, price and mix.
Recently, we've joined the fight against inflation program by applying a 10% discount on selected products until the year-end. Please note that this will not cause any deviation from our expectations and its impact on our figures is expected to be immaterial for Turkey. Let me move on to Middle East and Pakistan operations for the highlights. The region continued to grow although at a lower pace in the third quarter. In Pakistan, volume grew by 5% bringing the 9-month figure to 8%. Weak macro environment, depreciation of the rupee and the political unrest due to elections in July has led to some slowdown in private consumption. Nevertheless, we were able to achieve above-industry growth in Sparkling category on a year-to-date.
Successful implementation of our key brand strategy, improving market execution and increase in outlet coverage were the main factors of growth. Meanwhile, in line with our 3-brand strategy, we continued to focus on Sprite, Fanta brands, along with our investment in the brand equity of Coca-Cola. In this context, we're pleased to see high single-digit growth in Sprite in the third quarter.
Considering the sizable flavored Sparkling market in Pakistan are focused on growing Sprite and Fanta brands, we will continue with targeted marketing activities and new product launches. In Iraq, our volume contracted by 1% in the quarter and was up by 6% in the first 9 months. Political turbulence during and in the aftermath of elections in July had an adverse impact to the operating environment in Iraq. Security issues and closing of some roads due to religious holidays also impacted our volume. While the decline in overall volume was mainly attributable to contraction in the Water business, our focus on our core Sparkling segment resulted in a strong growth in the category and contributed to overall profitability. Finally, Jordan, a relatively small market, recorded a 16% volume decline due to weak macro environment, higher taxes compared to last year and overall decline in the consumer spending.
Let's move on to Central Asia on the next page. The region registered 16% growth in the third quarter as all of our primary markets delivered double-digit growth along with increase in profitability. Volume growth across the region was mainly driven by successful marketing execution, cooler investments as well as favorable weather conditions.
Kazakhstan, our flagship market in the region, delivered 14% volume growth in the quarter. We are pleased to see that we gained significant volume and value share, both in Sparkling and overall NRTD market in Kazakhstan. Sparkling recorded almost 10% growth in the quarter through successful consumer activities and effective promotions. New product launches such as Fanta Citrus and Sprite Cucumber, also contributed to category growth in the country. The Ice Tea category maintained its strong momentum and posted more than 40% growth in Kazakhstan.
Azerbaijan recorded another strong quarter with 25% volume growth. The country was among the top 5 fastest growing countries within the Coca-Cola system in the first 9 months. Successful promotions and consumer activities, coupled with cooler placements, drove volumes, and Sparkling delivered almost 30% growth with a substantial volume and value share.
Before moving into next section, as you know, we have announced an organizational change just last night. And I would like to thank our Middle East and Pakistan region Director, Orhun Köstem, for his valuable contribution and wish him all the success in his new role in Anadolu Efes, so most of you will have a chance to see him again face to face. I also would like to wish him to guide -- to the best of success in his new role, being responsible from Turkey and the Middle East operations.
And before handing over to Michael, as you know, he's going to be leaving his position by the end of this year. I would like to thank him for his great contribution to both CCI and the Coca-Cola system and wish him every success in his new role. Thank you.
Thanks, Burak. Moving on to Slide #11, summary financials. We maintained our robust financial performance in the third quarter as we delivered on our strategic growth algorithm for the fifth consecutive quarter.
Our consolidated net revenue was up by 35%, driven mainly by Turkey and the positive foreign exchange conversion impact on our international operations. On an FX-neutral basis, consolidated net sales growth was 11%. Strong top line growth coupled with effective cost and OpEx management translated into expansion and growth in EBIT and EBITDA margins. On the other hand, our EPS was lower due to TL depreciation despite better operating profitability as well as the positive impact of net investment hedging, on which I will elaborate further.
If I could move you on to Page 12. Looking into the details of our financial performance. Our net sales revenue per unit case increased by 8% on a consolidated basis. These are FX-neutral numbers. The pricing actions in Turkey, favorable sales mix and strong top line growth in Central Asia were the primary drivers of NSR per case growth. In Turkey, the NSR per case was up by 15%, driven by successful management of the sales mix as well as price increases. In international operations, net sales revenue per unit case grew by 45% or 0.5 percentage point on an FX-neutral basis, mainly attributable to favorable sales mix.
Our gross profit per unit case grew by 11%, driven by both solid growth in net revenue per unit case in Turkey as well as effective cost management. Despite headwinds in input costs and the FX volatility, growth in the cost per unit case was limited, thanks to effective raw material hedging as well as cash designations. We were able to increase our EBIT per unit case by 26% in the third quarter, driven by strong gross profitability in Turkey as well as increasing efficiency in our international operations.
Moving on to Page 13 for a brief review of input costs and related FX exposure. In the first 9 months of this year, aluminum and resin prices showed an increasing trend while world sugar prices were low compared to the same period last year -- or were lower. On the other hand, all of our planned sugar needs in our unregulated markets and more than 90% of our planned aluminum and resin purchases for 2018 are now hedged, and we have already started hedging our exposure in 2019.
In addition to managing the risk related to raw material prices with effective hedging, we also designated some portion of our hard-currency cash to manage our FX exposure related to raw materials. As highlighted in previous webcasts, we've designated a portion of our cash to cover around 90% of Turkey's FX-denominated raw material purchases in 2018 at a U.S. dollar to Turkish lira rate of TRY 3.55 and in 2019 at a rate of TRY 3.95. This cash designation has helped us to eliminate the impact of the recent FX volatility on the cost of sales and has supported the Turkey operations gross margin improvement to a large extent.
Moving on to Slide 14 and turning to our net income for the third quarter. Despite better operating profitability and a TRY 314 million positive impact of our net investment hedging, higher net FX losses due to the sharp depreciation of the Turkish lira against the dollar resulted in lower net income in the third quarter.
Moving on to the next slide, Slide 15. This slide shows the steps that we've taken to manage our balance sheet FX exposure and reduce our net income volatility. As we continue to take effective measures, we now have significantly lowered our U.S. dollar exposure compared to year-end 2017. As a reminder, we hedged $150 million of our debt through a participating cross-currency swap back in January of 2018.
And in the second quarter of 2018, we also started implementing net investment hedging for a total of USD 281 million, an IFRS practice which allows companies to record FX gains or losses related to certain hard-currency investments in the equity rather than in the P&L. We continue to monitor the market for further opportunities to reduce our bottom line volatility while we also continue to hold the majority of our cash in hard currency. Last but not least, our initial Eurobond with a total nominal value of $500 million matured, and the amount of interest and principal was redeemed on the 1st of October 2018.
Moving on to Page 16. Firstly, let me briefly discuss a few key metrics on leverage and cash flow. At the end of the first 9 months, our consolidated net debt stood at USD 504 million, roughly $40 million lower compared to the same period at the end of 2017. Note that we've repaid our USD 100 million private placement in May using excess cash, too.
Our net debt to EBITDA was realized at 1.6x in the first 9 months while positive FX translation impact from international operations offset the negative impact of TL depreciation within this number to a large extent. Our net interest coverage ratio remained well above our debt covenant of 4x in the first 9 months and stood at 8.9x.
In the first 9 months of the year, our net working capital to sales ratio remained almost flat while our CapEx to sales was higher, mainly driven by cooler investments across all of our regions as well as an FX translation impact. All in all, we generated solid free cash flow of TRY 888 million in the first 9 months, in line with our commitment to drive shareholder value.
With that, let me turn the call back over to Burak for his closing remarks.
Thanks, Michael. To make a few closing remarks, we are delighted with our fifth consecutive quarter of quality growth. Turkey once again delivered solid financials with continued growth in the Sparkling category and improving package mix. Our international operations also posted strong volume growth, mainly driven by Central Asian markets. We are pleased to see that strong top line growth was also reflected in the profitability, with margin expansion both in Turkey and in our international operations.
As we maintain our full year guidance for 2019, we are cautious about upcoming periods, considering the overall macroeconomic environment in our largest markets and the high base of first half 2018. We will maintain our focus on mitigating the adverse impact of macro and FX headwinds on our business with effective pricing, disciplined cost and OpEx management and various hedging tools. We will continue to execute our plans for a healthier balance sheet as well as free cash flow generation to drive shareholder value.
Now I think we can open up the floor for Q&A. Thank you.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Hanzade Kilickiran from JP Morgan.
I just want to -- I have a question about your guidance. You had a very good performance in Turkey, not only on the volume side but also on the margin, and this was well explained with the hedging. So why do you still expect a flat margin for Turkey for the year-end? I mean, do you expect a major slowdown in the fourth quarter? Or is there something that we need to know about the hedging impact in the fourth quarter?
Well, thank you, Hanzade. I mean, there's nothing, obviously, you don't know, so we're not hiding anything. I mean, obviously, what's happening in Turkey right now is the lower consumer sentiments that we have tried to indicate. The overall slowdown has started in September -- in the month of September. So the month of October was quite flattish month versus our plans and versus last year. So to be on the cautionary side, we would like to maintain our guidance. And anything over and above our guidance shouldn't be a negative surprise but more like a positive surprise.
And Burak, so do you think that's -- I mean, because this hedging carries a significantly positive impact on the gross margin, do you think that this is -- I mean, if the volume slowdown continued, for example, in the fourth quarter, it won't be enough to move up the margins? I mean, I understand you want to be cautious, but this seems to be too cautious with the hedging.
Well, I mean the hedging, obviously, has a limited impact on the total overall gross margin. On the other hand, we are having some significant input cost increases during the year. So when we go into the -- our smaller quarters, obviously, the impact on the gross margin will be a bit more. So that's why we're trying to be a bit more cautious on our fourth quarter's margin numbers and -- albeit on the full year's figures.
Okay. Did you do any sort of plans for 2019 about the volumes? I mean, do you expect volume growth in Turkey in 2019?
I mean, we are not disclosing any guidance for the time being right now. So I think we're going to be disclosing our 2019 guidance with our full year's earnings release, Hanzade. Sorry about that.
Our next question is from Jakub Mician from Wood & Co.
I would like to ask you on the dividend income boost from the Turkey -- for the Turkish operations in the third quarter. So given that you had some significant boost from the dividends from the international operations, does it mean that the boost is going to be lower in the fourth quarter or the first quarter of next year or it should be at the same level as we have seen last year?
Jakub, thank you for your question. There's no change expected for 2019 at this point. So for your modeling purposes, there's no need for you to make any adjustments. No impact expected whatsoever.
So since in the fourth quarter of last year, we have seen a significant boost on the EBITDA because of the -- primarily because of the dividends from the international operations, that number will be similar this year. Is that correct?
Yes. Directionally, that's absolutely correct.
Our next question is from Thomas Vester from LGM.
Michael, best of luck for your ongoing career. Just on the -- I mean, Burak, you mentioned September being slow. I think we were a little bit surprised when seeing the numbers that for the quarter were all -- that the volume kept up so strongly, especially on the soft drinks side when taking out the non-ready-to-drink tea. Can you say a little bit more on how weak September was and also in a market that you've been commenting on like Pakistan being impacted? Basically, can you share any more color on the trend for the quarter? Because it is a bit surprising that you are posting numbers that are holding up so well given how many fronts you've been hit on Turkey, Pakistan and Iraq. Then I wondered if you can elaborate on -- you make -- in the earnings commentary, you stated the plans for healthier balance sheet and then, obviously, you have the guidance for the full year. So I'm just wondering if that comment on plans for healthier balance sheet is just relating to the guidance for the year on the net debt to EBITDA of 1.5x. Or is there anything more in that beyond that plan for the balance sheet you can share since you talk on these plans for the healthier balance sheet? And then the last question would be on Uzbekistan. You put out the announcement on the meeting. I guess you're doing that for a reason, I don't know. Can you share anything in terms of the size of the opportunity? Any time frame where you expect to have more clarity? That will be most helpful. And maybe just lastly, on the Turkmenistan, Michael, if you can clarify how much of the cash is in Turkmenistan. I would expect it to be rather small, but if you just can clarify that and if you have it at face value or you just counted that cash position. That would be helpful.
Thomas, let me answer your September question. I mean, just to underline one more time, we had the highest ever high season volume numbers in Turkey in the third quarter. But in the month of September, our volume was kind of flattish. In the month of September since -- still giving us the highest record-breaking quarter in the third quarter. Obviously, when you look at the inflation numbers and what have you, we were just trying to be a little bit more cautious on the stock levels in our customers basically in order not to jeopardize any accounts receivable risks. So we're trying to lower our customer inventories, therefore lower our accounts receivable from the trade. So that's why I'm being a bit more cautious. On the other hand, the -- when you look at the dollar/TL rate being relatively lower than what we've been expecting for the year-end, so I think the Q4 will be a bit more flattish quarter for Turkey to go into 2019.
All right. And anything on the other markets?
Well, the other markets are holding on pretty good. I mean, as I said, Central Asia is doing well, so we are not seeing any slowdown in the trend -- in the volume trend. Pakistan is having its ups and downs because of some of the political -- I mean, I'm sure you've been following from the news the recent developments in Pakistan, but that is all temporary. So we just want to make sure that we hit our quality top line and bottom line growth in our international markets so we're not just pushing the volume to our distributors and customers and then trying to -- and planning to close the year with a healthy volume numbers for 2018. But for the international markets, we've not seen any issues.
Thomas, I will try to answer the other parts of your question. You asked about the healthier balance sheet. I mean, there's nothing specific in there other than continuing to carefully manage our net working capital, continuing to naturally deleverage, bringing down our net debt. Other than that, that's -- those are the areas we're most focused on. We're obviously continuing to look out for opportunities to hedge even further. But as I'm sure everyone will understand, there's not that much available right now in the market. On your question around Uzbekistan, that process is continuing and going according to plan. We expect to -- the next milestone we have is the signing of a nonbinding memorandum of understanding, and we're not too far away from getting that done. So that process is all moving along, and our hope would be that we could close that deal sometime in the first half of next year. I don't think we're really in a position today to be able to share numbers or the size of the opportunity. But I can tell you that the current volume projection in Uzbekistan for this year is around 50 million unit cases. So the common sentiment seems to be that, that number is capable of getting quite a lot higher. So that's the Uzbekistan piece. And then on Turkmenistan, yes, we have some, what I would call, trapped cash that we're unable to convert into hard currency sitting on our balance sheet. There, today, the total amount we have, I believe, is close to USD 50 million, obviously in manat, the local currency. So I hope that answers your question.
Sorry, was that 1-5 or 5-0?
5-0.
Rather substantial.
Yes. We're slowly chipping away at that and working to get our weekly allocation of conversion. But yes, it's obviously a lot bigger than we would like it to be.
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Hanzade Kilickiran from JP Morgan.
Michael, I just want to ask about FX losses related to your debt payment. You recently paid your debt, which was around $500 million. And since you paid the debt, is it -- are we going to see any additional FX losses carried from equity to P&L in the fourth quarter?
Hanzade, yes, we paid down the $500 million Eurobond, which we refinanced in September of last year. So of course, with the new $500 million Eurobond, we continue to have FX losses on all of our hard-currency debt. We've hedged as I had on one of my slides. We hold -- as a natural hedge to that debt, of course, we hold a lot of hard-currency cash. But as you saw in an earlier slide, which I presented, over time this year, we've brought down the FX loss impact on our hard-currency debt through a combination of hedging and the net investment hedging mechanism. But the remainder that we haven't been able to hedge will continue to incur FX losses in the coming quarters depending on -- of course, on what the U.S. dollar versus Turkish lira rate ends up being. I think we took the lion's share of those in Q3 because we ended Q2 with a rate of TRY 4.56, and we ended Q3 with a rate of TRY 5.99. So we took a pretty big hit in Q3 in terms of overall FX loss in the quarter. And just as a reminder, in the same quarter of last year, the devaluation was just a few Turkish cents, a few kurus, whereas, this year, it was TRY 1.43. So we took a really big hit in Q3 and we're not expecting anything like that in Q4. You know that the rate today is about TRY 5.3, so if -- so we're not expecting a big hit in Q4.
Then in -- I mean, since you have the hedging, probably you applied the hedging for the already paid debt position as well, so you put the FX losses related to that as unrealized FX loss before and recorded under equity. I just wonder, when you make the payment, from an accounting perspective, this goes to P&L as realized FX loss or we will never see this again because you already paid it and it's not going to feed into the P&L in the fourth -- as the realized FX loss?
I'm having a little difficulty with understanding your question and wondering if we...
Okay. All right. That's fine.
We have the 500 -- the new $500 million Eurobond was offset by excess cash while we held that cash. We paid down the old Eurobond, and the new one effectively replaced the old one. So the net debt exposure didn't change in any way. The new bond simply came in and replaced the previous one, with all of the FX losses going to the P&L in each quarter relating to that.
Okay. All right. And finally, on Pakistan, did you make any price increase in Pakistan to cover the weakness in rupee?
Hanzade, I mean, we haven't -- I mean, we have and we haven't. So the average price increase was, I think, around 8% to 9%, and we are going to be also taking some price increase. But obviously, we are #2 in the marketplace, and there's a weakening consumer sentiment in the marketplace right now. So we're trying to hold on to our existing pricing as much as -- as long as we can. But the pricing plans are in place. So whenever we think we can afford to take the price increase -- further price increases, we will.
We have no other questions at this time. [Operator Instructions] We have a question from Cemal Demirtas from Ata Invest.
My question is related to the Pakistan markets. How do you see the outlook for the following quarters? Except for the devaluation effect, do you see any potential upside or downside in that market?
Cemal, thanks for your question. I mean, Pakistan is full of potential. So -- I mean, we see this quite often. I think the currency devaluation will not continue into 2019. So -- and then, I think we're going to be maintaining our healthy growth in Pakistan in 2019 as well.
Any risks?
Any risks? It depends on how do you define the risk in Pakistan. So obviously, there are risks, but we know how to manage those risks in Pakistan. One of the biggest risks is obviously the security situation, so you can have temporary on and off security issues in Pakistan, which we have it time to time. So we know how to deal with that. And if there's a pricing-related risk in terms of -- because of the currency devaluation or the slower consumer sentiment and et cetera, there are tools to deal with that as well. We are not expecting any significant risks that we don't know how to deal with.
[Operator Instructions] We have no other questions. Dear speakers, back to you for the conclusion.
Well, thank you, everybody, for joining the call and believing in CCI. And I think we're going to be closing the year, as I said, in line with our guidance. And I wish you a pleasant day or a pleasant night and then hope to see you next time. Thank you very much for joining the call. Bye-bye.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.