Coca-Cola Icecek AS
IST:CCOLA.E
Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2023 Analysis
Coca-Cola Icecek AS
The company registered a remarkable year-on-year net sales revenue increase of 82%, reaching TL 22 billion. This growth was augmented by strong, FX-neutral sales growth of 52%, fueled by timely price adjustments and efficient management of consumer purchasing power alongside discount optimization. A particularly impressive feat is the expansion of gross margins by 376 basis points to 37.6%, primarily driven by cost efficiencies in production, especially in Turkiye and Pakistan. This improvement in operations translated into the most substantial ever quarterly net profit of TL 4.3 billion, highlighting the success of the company's strategic growth approach.
Efficient commodity hedging plays a pivotal role in the company's financial strategy, especially regarding sugar, aluminum, and resin. In anticipation of 2024, a significant amount of these commodities have been pre-hedged, with 87% of sugar needs already covered in flexible markets like Iraq and Jordan. Looking forward, the company has secured nearly 50% and 42% of aluminum and resin needs for 2024, respectively. These actions are indicative of a forward-looking approach ensuring operational smoothness against market volatility.
With a 114% surge in operating profit compared to the previous year, the third quarter reported a robust EBIT of TL 6.9 billion and an EBIT margin of 21.9%. The company maintains a sturdy balance sheet, with net debt at a low leverage ratio of 0.6x of EBITDA, suggesting financial flexibility and a robust liquidity position to support ongoing growth initiatives—while also being prepared for any planned cash outflows such as the Pakistan minority buyout.
The company's resilience in volatile markets is credited to a well-crafted operating playbook, emphasizing market potential analysis, a unique route-to-market strategy, sophisticated revenue growth management, and supply chain excellence. These components of the playbook hinge on data analytics and relationships in the trade to effectively respond to market needs, including investment in production facilities and distribution infrastructure in anticipation of increasing demand.
An interesting development looming on the horizon is the planned application of inflation accounting in Turkiye, which could affect the company's financials as early as Q1 '24. The estimated impact based on 2022's figures suggests a 100 basis point contraction in gross profit margin and an increase in operating expenses, leading to a predicted 200 basis point dip in EBIT margins. Conversely, a net income rise of 600 to 700 basis points is expected due to anticipated monetary gains.
Pakistan, being a country with a large population and low per capita NARTD consumption, holds significant growth potential for the company. Current economic challenges are viewed as temporary, with clear strategies in place to emerge stronger as the economic climate stabilizes, especially with upcoming elections and IMF interventions anticipated to improve the situation.
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Good morning and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to CCI's Third Quarter 2023 Results Webcast. I'm here with Karim Yahi, our Chief Executive Officer; and Erdi Kursunoglu, our Chief Financial Officer. Prepared remarks will be made by Karim Yahi accompanied by a slide deck. We will then take your questions. [Operator Instructions].
Before we begin, please kindly be advised of our cautionary statement. The conference call may contain forward-looking management comments, including projections. These should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary language contained in our earnings release. A copy of our earnings release and financials are available on our website at www.cci.com.tr. Just to remind you, this conference call is being recorded and will be posted on our website. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time.
Now I will turn the call over to Karim.
Thank you, Cicek. Good morning, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining CCI's webcast. This is my first quarterly results webcast as the new CEO of CCI, after being appointed on September 1. It is a great honor to be part of CCI, one of the best and largest bottlers of the Coca-Cola company. Very briefly about me. I joined the Coca-Cola system in 2003 and since then, I have held a lot of increasing responsibility functionally in finance, in merger and acquisitions, in strategy and in general management. And geographically, I worked in Turkey, Central Asia, Latin America, North America and global. My last role was COO of Fairlife, a wholly owned dairy company of the Coca-Cola Company. And prior to that, I was the Strategy Vice President incharge of -- I was Vice President for strategy globally in the headquarters at the Coca-Cola company.
For the past 20 years in the Coca-Cola system, I spent 7 years working in Turkey and in Central Asia.
CCI has a purpose to create value in everything we do. And we have defined a very clear set of strategic priorities. Our clear and consistent strategy is what enables improvement of per capita NARTD consumption in our markets over the years, successful expansion of our geographical footprint and a continuous delivery of quality growth algorithm, all this despite volatilities in our markets. My goal as the new CEO is to continue building on the successful track record, my predecessor Burak Basarir and our amazing teams and stakeholders have created.
In the third quarter, we have once again demonstrated our ability to create quality growth. Our consolidated sales volume grew by 3% versus last year, and reached 482 million unit cases. We achieved 220 basis points year-over-year increase in the share of immediate consumption packages in our portfolio. From a category perspective, we saw positive impact as energy and adult premium sub categories grew above average. Timely pricing actions, combined with optimized trade spend resulted in an 82% growth in net sales revenue year-on-year. Our foreign exchange neutral basis, our NSR -- our net sales revenue was strong and demonstrated a strong growth with a 52% year-over-year increase.
Net sales revenue per unit case reached USD 2.5, the highest ever third quarter level. All our actions have enabled a strong improvement in profitability in the third quarter. EBIT grew above net sales revenue, delivering 327 basis points margin expansion year-over-year. Accordingly, EBITDA margin reached 24.2%, recording the second highest quarterly EBITDA margin ever. This was the result of effective cost management with proactive procurement and hedging initiatives as well as strict OpEx management.
Our net income reached TL 4.3 billion in the third quarter which implies the highest earnings per share in U.S. dollar terms in CCI's history. In this quarter, the key engines of growth were Turkey, Uzbekistan and Iraq, while Pakistan continued to be negatively impacted by a volatile macroeconomic environment.
Next slide, please. From a portfolio standpoint, we have recorded growth in all categories within the third quarter. Especially the growth in high-value categories has been remarkable. And this demonstrates our ability to evolve with consumer taste and work with customers to capture the opportunity. Under our flagship sparkling portfolio, we created 15% growth in Fanta and a remarkable 31% growth in Schweppes. Stills category continued its robust growth trend too. In Energy portfolio, we created a 34% year-over-year increase, while in Fuse tea, we had a 13% improvement. Focused marketing strategies coupled with disciplined execution have delivered these outstanding results. Our strategic segmentation and focus on quality mix management continued in the third quarter.
Accordingly, we recorded 220 basis points increase in the share of immediate consumption packages, which reached 28.5%. This is mostly due to the improvement in the share of on-premise channel and prioritization of multiple immediate consumption packs for home consumption. Our premium product share within total also improved by 93 basis points versus the same period last year. These products are basically can, glass packs as well as 100% juice.
Next slide, please. In Turkiye, we have recorded 12.1% volume growth in the third quarter. Disciplined execution in the store, right execution daily, coupled with loyalty building marketing initiatives and favorable weather conditions were the main pillar behind this success. In the Sparkling category we grew by 13%, which was mostly driven by Schweppes' 34% growth, Fanta's 15% growth and Coca-Cola's 12% growth year-over-year. The Stills category also continued its strong momentum with 14% surge, thanks to Fuse Tea 23% and Monster 61% growth, both cycling a high base from last year.
Finally, the Water category grew by 8% in the third quarter year-over-year. It's worth to mention that the share of immediate consumption packs within Water improved by 106 basis points with smart mix management initiatives. Intentionally, we decreased the nonvalue-adding Waters, and that's why you see a slight decrease by 5 percentage points -- 5.2 percentage points year-over-year in Water.
All in all, our net sales revenue growth in Turkiye was 113% in the third quarter, and net sales revenue per unit case growth was 90%. Apart from the robust volume improvement and smart revenue growth management initiatives, we benefited from effective procurement and hedging, especially in packaging. This supported Turkiye's profitability and gross margin expansion by 395 basis points, paving the way for a robust 21.5% EBITDA margin.
Next slide, please. In our international operations, Uzbekistan and Iraq have been the main contributors to the growth with 27% and 20% year-on-year growth, respectively. Pakistan on the other hand, continues to get impacted by historically low consumer confidence. Purchasing power is also quite dim on the back of volatile macroeconomic environment. Accordingly, sales volume declined by 19% year-over-year in the third quarter. In total, despite high single-digit growth in Central Asia and mid-teens growth in the Middle East, international operations volume declined by 2 percentage points year-on-year to 282 million unit cases. The share of immediate consumption packaging improved by 383 basis points and reached 26% in the third quarter.
This is mostly attributable to strong on-premise channel performance and increasing share of immediate consumption pack at home channels. In the international operations, net sales revenue growth has recorded a 64% growth reaching TL 18 billion. Net sales revenue per unit case was up by 68% in Turkish lira terms and by 19% on a foreign exchange neutral basis. Thanks to timely pricing actions and disciplined cost management, our international operations gross margin improved by 305 basis points to 34.7%; especially Pakistan and Iraq have been the main drivers of this improvement.
Next slide, please. As of the third quarter, Uzbekistan's volume share has reached 12% of CCI total, making it our third largest country by volume. Our new production line is now operational, and our cooler placements are ongoing with full speed along with our route-to-market developments. We also expect the fourth plant to be operational next year. Pakistan's consumer confidence index dipped to 26.2% within the third quarter, which is the lowest figure of the last 11 years. Purchasing power of households also decreased amid the highest levels of inflation realized in the last 50 years. The silver lining was that our disciplined execution and effective trade discount management have supported us and we have realized a 240 basis point value market share expansion year-to-date in Pakistan.
In Kazakhstan, sales volume was down by 11% as we have cycled a solid 8% growth a year ago. Kazakhstan operations have softened due to reduced purchasing power of consumers as FMCG pricing is higher versus nominal wage growth. Adverse weather conditions also negatively impacted sales volume in the third quarter of 2023. On the other hand, we are pleased to record a 65 basis point improvement in the on-premise channel share within the total. Now I will leave the floor to Erdi for the financial review.
Thank you, Karim. And once again, I would like to welcome you all to our Q3 webcast. Just like Karim, this is also my first webcast in CCI as CFO although I'm not new to the company. For the last 2 years, I've been working as the Finance Director of Pakistan in CCI. Prior to that, I worked in Walmart and Ericsson for 20-plus years across Middle East, Central Asia, Far East and Africa and in various regional executive roles in finance and sales.
Moving on to our financials. To start with and to summarize, we managed to deliver robust results, thanks to our strong commitment to our quality growth algorithm, while our operating environments continue to post challenges on us. Our net sales revenue increased by 82% year-on-year and reached TL 22 billion. Apart from the favorable foreign currency conversion impact, FX-neutral NSR growth was again strong at 52%. Timely price adjustments with close track of consumer purchasing power and optimized discount management helped to register the strong growth in NSR.
Our gross margin expanded by 376 basis points to 37.6% on a consolidated basis, mostly on the back of Turkiye and Pakistan. In Turkiye, the main cost benefit was from the achievements in packaging, while in international markets, lower sugar prices were the main contributor. We managed to contain OpEx near flat during the quarter, which enabled a similar expansion in consolidated EBIT margin to that of gross margin. Eventually, EBIT expanded by 327 basis points and reached 21.9% as of third quarter. Our EBITDA margin was up by 248 basis points went up to 24.2% in quarter 3, recording the second highest quarterly EBITDA margin ever.
Finally, we also had a record high quarterly net profit of TL 4.3 billion. We are pleased to see that our quality growth algorithm delivers results and help us to report the highest ever quarterly earnings per share in CCI's history in U.S. dollar terms and all despite of the devaluations of our major local currencies against U.S. dollar. Next slide, please.
As we operate in volatile markets, FX neutral and per UC financials are key indicators of our true performance and our determined focus on efficiency continued to yield positive outcomes. On a per unit case basis, FX-neutral NSR per UC growth was 47.6%, which delivered $2.5 NSR per UC in the third quarter. This is the highest third quarter NSR per UC in the last decade in U.S. dollar terms, and this was achieved by trade spend optimization and right and proactive pricing actions.
With smart procurement measures, we also managed to contain cost of goods sold per UC increased at 38% on FX-neutral basis in this tough environment. Successful hedges and prebuy initiatives made positive contribution to managing COGS per UC also in this quarter. Finally, currency-neutral EBIT per UC growth has surpassed the NSR per UC growth by a solid margin this quarter and realized as 73% year-on-year.
Next slide, please. As 2023 is almost over now, and we have almost 100% visibility on the cost for this year, I wanted to give some outlook on our commodity hedging initiatives for 2024. In markets where the sugar can be hedged, namely in Iraq and Jordan, we covered 87% of our sugar need already for 2024. For the regulated markets where financial hedging is not meaningful due to low correlation, we started prebuys now that the crop is finalized. But the total amount is still not significant considering our total 2024 need. We expect to have more contracts by the end of the year. Right now, our total sugar hedge overall in all markets amount corresponds to 14% of 2024. For aluminum and resin, we have already covered nearly 50% and 42% of 2024, respectively. Looking at the commodity exposure for 2024, we are comfortable at the current hedge rates, and we will continue to monitor our markets closely to be ready to add further coverage.
Next slide, please. As a result of all these achievements, our operating profit was up by 114% compared to the same quarter last year. While strong volumes and right pricing actions were the main drivers of EBIT expansion, controlled COGS and OpEx also supported this success. And in conclusion, we reported TL 6.9 billion EBIT in quarter 3 with 21.9% EBIT margin.
On to next slide, please. Thanks to our tight financial policy, our balance sheet health remains to be strong and flexible. Our net debt is USD 376 million, which is only 0.6x of our EBITDA. Our balance sheet is also a fit to support our growth agenda. Even considering the planned cash outflows related to Pakistan minority buyout, we expect net leverage to stay below 1x through positive free cash flow generation during the year.
Our short FX position after net investment hedges are also at the comfortable level of $134 million. As a result of our proactive debt management, the average maturity of our debt is 3.5 years and 44% of our current debt is scheduled to be paid in 2029. This creates an additional comfort zone to manage and plan our liquidity in the globally tight monetary conditions. Prudent financial management, maintaining a healthy balance sheet and strong liquidity position will continue to be our financial priorities going forward. Thank you. And now back to Karim for his closing remarks.
Thank you, Erdi. I would like to close today's webcast by sharing the success formula of CCI. We often get a question on how we managed to deliver strong results in these volatile economies. Our playbook is our key to unlock the value and opportunities that our countries offer. As we operate in relatively low per capita NARTD-consuming geographies, a well-put playbook is our main enabler. It all starts with a conviction, a conviction into a quality future. And we invest ahead of demand. We plan on invest in production facilities and coolers on the back of well-analyzed demand potential in the market. But we are fully ready to serve our consumers when demand picks up.
Second, we implement our unique route-to-market approach. In which we work with independent third party distributors who are exclusive and loyal to CCI in NARTD and who invest alongside us to create the right distribution infrastructure in the market. Then we work with our distributors to build that capability, train them and share our CCI's ways of working. Next comes monetization and our disciplined revenue growth management. It is yet another very important key to our success, thorough analysis of consumers' purchasing power, delicately managing pricing environment, smart mix management and win-win trade promotion spending are the key pillars behind delivering our quality growth algorithm.
Fourth, our in-store execution excellence and our high standards to deliver the right execution daily. This ranges from cooler planograms to how we develop our relationship with our customers and serve them better. We heavily rely on big data digital capabilities and we couple them with our long-standing relationships with the trade in order to better execute every day and capture opportunities.
Supply chain excellence is another indispensable part of our journey. We are not only continuously focusing on improving our efficiency, but we also work on creating the next chapter in supply chain and digitization to capture the opportunities in the market and deliver our 2030 sustainability pledges.
Finally, finding the right talent, retaining them and continuously upskilling them through training and development programs are the key bonds that connect CCI into our one-team culture and make it future fit. Now we will be happy to answer your questions that you shared via the Q&A chat box.
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from [ Melis Pojar of OYAK A.S. ] According to the recent news flow, inflation accounting is planned to be applied in Turkiye. Can you enlighten us about expected impact on your financials? When do you think it will be effective in financial reporting for the first time. Is it first quarter of '24?
Thank you for the question. There's no full clarity on that, and it can only be early as Q1 '24. But as I said, nothing is certain at the moment. But we did an exercise on our 2022 financials. And when you look at our financial -- and obviously, this applies only for Turkey, which is 40-plus percent of our total. And inflation accounting on the asset side will increase on the inventory, fixed asset and prepaid concession. Whereas on the liability side, we don't have any item impacted other than equity. With the Turkey impact and taking that into consolidated figures, we expect based on that '22 exercise, we expect a contraction in GP margin by 100 basis points. An increase on OpEx by another 100 basis points, so leading into a 200 basis points EBIT reduction. But on the other hand, due to monitoring gain that we will record on net income level, we expect a 600 to 700 basis points increase. This is how we see at the moment. And once again, thank you for the question.
Our second question comes from [indiscernible] . In the early reports, there were declarations that Pakistan is a market that has one of the highest growth expectations due to high population and low consumption per person. How would you evaluate midterm and long-term projections? Do your expectations remain the same?
Thank you for this question. Pakistan is a 250 million population country with low per capita in NARTDs in our business. It continues to be a challenging market for macroeconomic reasons. And inflation has picked up recently, increased between August and September from 27% to 31%. Remittances coming from abroad have declined by approximately 20%. And so it is a challenging environment. Yet our team by doing the right thing every day, has gained market share, as I indicated earlier on, again demonstrating our ability to do the right things with the trade with our customers, with our partners to always stay close to the market and close to the opportunity.
All this to say that the opportunity that Pakistan has is not going away. Historically, we have seen such dips in the past. And for us, it's not the dip that matters, it's what comes after the dip. We prepare ourselves to come back stronger than before the dip. In the recent past, during the COVID times, the per capita in Pakistan has decreased. But we came back stronger after that. And that is why we will continue to focus on what we need to do today in order to come back stronger after the economy in Pakistan stabilizes. And we hope that it's going to be as soon as possible as elections are going to be held in January and as the IMF is working on implementing its program in the upcoming months.
Follow-up question comes from [ Melis Pojar ]. What was the reason behind Iraq's robust third quarter volume growth?
So first, the economy of Iraq is growing. So the PCE in 2023 versus prior year is growing approximately at 6%, which creates significant opportunity for us in NARTD. Second, our focus on key packages focused on transaction growth, so immediate consumption growing faster than future consumption, focusing on the right marketing engagement with consumers and partnering with customers have enabled us to create the growth that we have delivered in the third quarter. So to summarize, we have done in Iraq, in 2023, the right thing. We have implemented our playbook, and it is now paying off.
Our next question comes from [indiscernible] . Congratulations on the strong results. Could you please provide an update on Bangladesh acquisition?
So Bangladesh is a significant opportunity. It has very low per capita NARTD and therefore, is a great market for growth in the future. We are currently in discussion with the Coca-Cola Company to acquire the Coca-Cola Company bottler in Bangladesh. And I cannot comment further, but we are in discussions.
The next question comes from again [ Melis Pojar ]. Can you summarize the current demand and market environment in Pakistan?
So it's a little bit of a repeat of the earlier question. Again, Pakistan, a significant opportunity for us. Right now, the macroeconomic context is challenging. It doesn't take away the significant opportunity for growth we have in the future. But again, to remind ourselves, inflation is at its highest level for the past 50 years. It has recently reached 31%. Remittances coming from abroad have declined by 20% recently. The IMF is reviewing its program, and there is an important meeting on November 2 that will take place. Elections are planned to be held in January of 2024. That is the overall context in the market.
Now as I said earlier, even if volume went down in the quarter, I'm proud of the work that our team has done locally as we focused on right execution daily, doing the right things with the store and as a result, have gained market share in the country. Again, that is a testimony to the strength of our team, to the strength of our operating model and show our readiness to capture growth as soon as the macroeconomic context improves.
Next question comes from [ Zeyneb Arman of Ata Invest ]. Congratulations for strong results. Could you please give some sort of information about your ongoing preliminary discussions regarding the acquisition of Bangladesh operations, which we have covered already? Do you have any time line for that or anything you can share for the future expectations of Bangladesh?
We do not comment publicly on these discussions. So I will go back to my earlier comment that we are in discussions with the Coca-Cola Company.
Next question comes from [indiscernible] . Net working capital to sales ratio declined from 13% in June to 11% as of September. What should we expect for the same ratio in fourth quarter '23.
We will normalize as we get towards the year-end, and we are keeping our net working capital guidance intact and the same for full year.
Another question is please discuss the FX impact on the debt. How is it hedged currently?
That's why we had a slide actually on the disciplined financial management. So if you look at our net position in FX, it stands at $134 million. So although we have 2-euro bonds outstanding with a magnitude of $800 million and some more ForEx denominated borrowings. Through [ Holland ], we manage with net investment hedge disposition successfully. And as you can see from the waterfall there and half of it we also managed to keep in liquid cash. So hence, you see the net results impacting and flowing into our P&L, which we shared on the earnings release.
The next question is about the outlook on volumes and price increases in each market as you see it today. Is the focus on volume growth or price increase?
So at CCI, we pride ourselves in looking at both together. We don't like Or, we like And. And it's all dictated by context. Our focus is the quality growth algorithm. And if you look at every market, the way we look at business is a little bit like what I shared earlier about what our winning playbook is all about. So it is not about pricing only, but it is about revenue management. And in our world, it is about net sales revenue per unit case growth or if you want to make it simple, net sales revenue per bottle growth. And what are the 3 components of that: one, it's list pricing. Number two, it's mix management. So category mix management, channel mix management, pack-mix management; and three, it's trade discounts.
So in every market where we operate, we do not rely only on pricing. We do focus on net sales revenue growth per unit case or per bottle as that is the most effective indicator of how we can create quality growth in the market despite macroeconomic volatility. Our objective in every market is always to grow net sales revenue per unit case or per bottle above cost inflation, therefore, above inflation. That is our focus. And again, it is not only relying upon pricing, but it is activating the entire toolbox of very disciplined revenue growth management that we have at CCI, repeating myself, it's about list pricing, it's about mix management and it's about trade discount optimization.
Our next question comes from [indiscernible] . Despite achieving strong results and record high profit margins, I'm curious why you haven't revised your guidance? Are you anticipating a softening for the remainder of the year?
For full year, as stated in our release, we indicated stronger margins than our guidance already in our earnings release.
In which of the markets are you most optimistic about?
So as the CEO of CCI, I am optimistic about every market. Why? Because at CCI, we have opportunities in the market because we operate in low per capita markets. We operate in markets where most of the population is below 30 years old. We operate in markets where most of the industry is in Sparkling, Therefore, there is not much diversification into the Stills category that has happened. So the market opportunity is [ flagrant ] in front of us. On the other side, our winning playbook is something that we can implement everywhere and something that we implement everywhere. And the third piece is the quality of our people is bringing the winning playbook into action and it's making it a reality and gives me optimism.
So to summarize, opportunities in the market because of low per capita, a winning playbook and a high quality of people that are capable of implementing our winning playbook and capturing the opportunity.
Our next question comes from Nikhil Bhatt. Two questions, please. First, could you please elaborate on your comment about the Pakistan minority state buy out? How much cash outgo should we expect and when? Second, with less than 12 months to go for a maturity of your $300 million euro bond, what are your plans for the bond? Do you intend to repay the bond given the strong balance sheet or refinance it? If refinancing, when would you look to refinance the bond?
Thank you for the question. The Pakistan minority stake buyout deal is yet to close soon, and the cash outflow will be $300 million depending on the time of the deal being closed and eventually put thereafter. As for the Euro bond, our plans are not clear yet. Either we will repay it in full or we will partially do a refinancing, we are proactively looking into that as with all other plants.
The same question came in so we are skipping that and another question comes from [indiscernible] . Could you further elaborate demand in Turkey, sell-in versus sell-out? Do you see any pressure on prices or any price increase expectations? How long the consumption trend in October considering the hot weather conditions?
Thank you for the question. We do not comment on pricing measures, expectations. However, let me speak a little bit about the most recent trends we are observing in the market in Turkey. Yes, we have experienced some good weather conditions. However, we also are seeing a slowdown overall in FMCG in the month of October. And we have a strong base effect from last year, where we actually had a very good month of October volume. So for all these reasons, we actually see a softening in the first half of the month of October in the marketplace.
Next question comes from Hanzade. Can you provide outlook for Turkey, Pakistan and Kazakhstan? Do you expect any adverse impact from GLP-1 drugs in your operating markets?
No, I have to be direct. I don't know much about that drug, to be very honest with you. But I would like to remind everybody that we are in the beverage industry, and we have very low per capita in our beverage industry. Therefore, we have significant opportunities for us to capture in the beverage industry. Again, I do not know very well the drug you're referring to, but I don't think that we compete against drug, we compete in beverages, and we know how to win in beverages.
This ends our Q&A session. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today, and thank you for your interest in CCI. Goodbye.