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SBA Communications Corp
NASDAQ:SBAC

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SBA Communications Corp
NASDAQ:SBAC
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Price: 202.36 USD 1.64% Market Closed
Updated: May 16, 2024

Earnings Call Transcript

Earnings Call Transcript
2019-Q4

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Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the SBA Fourth Quarter Earnings Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question and answer session. Instructions will be given at that time. [Operator Instructions] And as a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

And now let me introduce, Vice President of Finance Mark DeRussy. Go ahead sir.

M
Mark DeRussy
VP, Finance

Thank you, Julio. Good evening everyone and thank you for joining us for SBA's Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. Here with me today are Jeff Stoops, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Brendan Cavanagh, our Chief Financial Officer.

Some of the information we will discuss on this call is forward-looking, including but not limited to any guidance for 2020 and beyond. In today's press release and in our SEC filings, we detailed material risks that may cause our future results to differ from our expectations. Our statements are as of today, February 20th and we have no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, we may make.

In addition, our comments will include non-GAAP financial measures and other key operating metrics. The reconciliation of and other information regarding these items can be found in our supplemental financial data package, which is located on the landing page of our Investor Relations website.

With that I will now turn it over to Brendan to discuss our results.

B
Brendan Cavanagh
EVP and Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Mark. Good evening. We had another solid quarter in the fourth quarter with strong operating and financial results in both our Leasing and Services businesses. Total GAAP site leasing revenues for the fourth quarter were $481.1 million, and cash site leasing revenues were $478.1 million.

Foreign exchange rates were in line with our estimates for the fourth quarter, but were a headwind on year ago comparisons. Same tower recurring cash leasing revenue growth for the fourth quarter, which is calculated on a constant currency basis was 6% over the fourth quarter of 2018, including the impact of 2.3% of churn. On a gross basis, same tower growth was 8.3%.

Domestic same tower recurring cash leasing revenue growth over the fourth quarter of last year was 8.2% on a gross basis and 5.6% on a net basis, including 2.6% of churn, 0.8% of which continues to be related to Metro Leap and Clearwire terminations. The balance of domestic churn is from a variety of sources including a number of smaller customers that are modifying or shutting down older technologies, some sites that were never on air that are not being renewed and some legacy consolidation churn.

Domestic operational leasing activity representing new revenue placed under contract during the quarter was down from the first half of the year and sequentially from the third quarter due to the industry-wide slowdown as our customers awaited resolution of the legal challenges to the Sprint, T-Mobile merger.

Amendment activity was again the bulk of our domestic bookings with newly signed up domestic leasing revenue coming 71% from amendments, and 29% from new leases. Although we had essentially no contributions to leasing activity from T-Mobile during the quarter, the big 4 carriers still represented 87% of total incremental domestic leasing revenue that was signed up during the quarter.

Our domestic application backlog is strong and we expect that the closing of the Sprint, T-Mobile merger will drive a significant increase in incremental leasing activity as our customers invest heavily in their future 5G networks.

Internationally, on a constant currency basis, same tower cash leasing revenue growth was 8.3% including 0.6% of churn or 8.9% on a gross basis. We had another solid leasing quarter internationally. Although our reported same tower growth numbers are down from last quarter, primarily due to the rolling off of a very strong fourth quarter of 2018 from this trailing 12 month calculation.

This quarter, Brazil was again the largest contributor to lease up. Gross same tower organic growth in Brazil was 11.6% on a constant currency basis and we continue to have contributions from all four major carriers there.

During the fourth quarter, 84.6% of consolidated cash site leasing revenue was denominated in U.S. dollars. The majority of non-U.S. dollar denominated revenue was from Brazil with Brazil representing 12.1% of all cash site leasing revenues during the quarter and 8.8% of cash site leasing revenue excluding revenues from pass-through expenses.

Tower cash flow for the fourth quarter was $387.4 million, our industry-leading domestic tower cash flow margin was 84% in the quarter. International tower cash flow margin was 69.7% and was 90.2% excluding the impacts of pass-through reimbursable expenses.

Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter was $362.4 million. Our adjusted EBITDA margin was 71% in the quarter, up 50 basis points from the prior year period. Excluding the impact of revenues from pass-through expenses, adjusted EBITDA margin was 75.7%, approximately 99% of our total adjusted EBITDA was attributable to our tower leasing business in the fourth quarter.

AFFO in the fourth quarter was $248.8 million, AFFO per share was $2.18, an increase of 10% over the fourth quarter of 2018 on a constant currency basis. During the fourth quarter, we continue to invest in expanding our tower portfolio. On December 6, we closed on the acquisition of 1,313 wireless sites in Brazil purchased from Grupo Torre Sur for a total cash consideration of US$460 million.

These towers have 1.7 tenants per tower, are located in high-quality population centers and in locations that geographically complement our existing portfolio well and they were purchased for less than 15 times their anticipated 2020 tower cash flow.

We are very pleased with our ability to continue adding high-caliber sites to our portfolio at attractive prices. In addition to the GTS acquisition, we acquired 23 other communication sites during the quarter for $11.7 million and we built a total of 170 sites in the quarter. Most of the added sites were located internationally.

Subsequent to the end of the quarter, we acquired 11 additional sites for $11.9 million. As of today, we have under contract for acquisition and anticipate closing by the end of the second quarter on a 166 additional sites at an aggregate price of $97.8 million.

We also continue to invest in the land under our sites, which provides both strategic and financial benefits. During the quarter, we spent an aggregate of $13.7 million to buy land and easements and to extend ground lease terms.

At the end of the quarter, we owned or controlled for more than 20 years, the land underneath approximately 71% of our towers and the average remaining life under our ground leases, including renewal options under our control is approximately 35 years.

Looking ahead now, our earnings press release includes our initial outlook for full year 2020. Even with the industry slowdown in the U.S. in the second half of last year and into the first part of this year, our outlook reflects another year of solid growth in our leasing business. We expect a similar level of domestic operational leasing activity in 2020, as we experienced in 2019.

However, this year is anticipated to be back half loaded, whereas 2019 was much busier during the first half of the year. Our outlook for 2020 leasing revenue is built largely upon the operational leasing activity we’ve had over the last six months. Our anticipated acceleration in lease up in the second half of this year is expected to provide minor contributions to our 2020 leasing revenue.

Similarly, although our guidance for full year 2020 services revenue is anticipated to be less than we saw during a very busy 2019, we expect to see a pickup in our services business in the second half of the year, once the Sprint, T-Mobile merger has been closed.

In our international business, our outlook anticipates continued steady organic leasing contributions. We have incorporated consensus estimates of a slight weakening in the Brazilian foreign exchange rate from where we are today, assuming an average FX rate during 2020 of R$4.36 to US$1.

Our full year 2020 outlook does not assume any further acquisitions beyond those under contract today and it does not assume any share repurchases at all. We do however intend to deploy additional capital into both portfolio growth and opportunistic share repurchases.

Our outlook for net cash interest expense and for AFFO include the impact of our recently completed unsecured notes offering, as well as the repricing of our term loan completed during the fourth quarter, each of which Mark will discuss in a moment.

We estimate a relatively similar level of cash taxes in 2020, as we incurred in 2019, mostly related to international taxes and state taxes where we do not have any NOLs.

Finally, our outlook for AFFO per share is based on an assumed weighted average number of diluted common shares of $114.8 million, which assumption is influenced in part by estimated future share prices.

We are excited about 2020 and particularly about the great opportunities that lie ahead for SBA over the next several years.

I will now turn things over to Mark who will provide an update on our liquidity position and our balance sheet.

M
Mark DeRussy
VP, Finance

Thanks, Brendan. We ended the fourth quarter with $10.4 billion of total debt and $10.3 billion of net debt. Our net debt-to-annualized adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio was 7.1 times. Our fourth quarter net cash interest coverage ratio of adjusted EBITDA to net cash interest expense was 3.8 times.

On November 19, we repriced our $2.4 billion from a coupon of LIBOR plus 200 basis points to a new coupon of LIBOR plus 175 basis points.

Subsequently, on December 3rd, we entered into a series of interest rate swaps on $1.95 billion of that term loan effectively replacing both of our existing interest rate swaps. The effect of these two – these new swaps was to reduce our swap interest rate by approximately 30 basis points to a fixed rate of 3.78% through the maturity date of the existing term loan.

After year-end, on February 4th, we issued $1 billion of new seven year, unsecured senior notes at an interest rate of 3.875%. Our lowest cost unsecured senior note issuance ever. Net proceeds of this offering were used to redeem all of our outstanding 2022 4.875% senior notes through the associated call premium on those notes and repay a portion of the balance outstanding under our revolving credit facility.

As of today, the outstanding balance under our revolver is $175 million. Pro forma for the senior note issuance, the weighted average coupon of our outstanding debt is 3.6% and a weighted average maturity is approximately 4 years.

During the fourth quarter, we repurchased 859,000 shares of our common stock for $200 million for an average price of $232.77 per share. All the shares purchased were retired.

As of today, we have $624.3 million of repurchase authorization remaining under our $1 billion stock repurchase plan. The company's shares outstanding at December 31, 2019 are 111.8 million, which is down 0.6% from December 31, 2018.

In addition, during the fourth quarter, we declared and paid a cash dividend of $41.5 million or $0.37 per share and today, we announced that our Board of Directors declared a first quarter dividend of f $0.465 per share or an increase of 25.7% over the last quarter. It’s payable on March 26, 2020 for shareholders of record as of the close of business on March 10, 2020.

With that I will now turn the call over to Jeff.

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Brendan and good evening, everyone. The fourth quarter was a strong finish to a very good year for SBA. We delivered solid financial results in both our Leasing and Services segments, finishing at the high-end of guidance for tower cash flow, AFFO and AFFO per share and exceeding the high-end of our guidance range for leasing revenue, total revenue and adjusted EBITDA.

Our full year financial results also finished above the high-end of our initial 2019 guidance given in February of last year for leasing revenue, services revenue, tower cash flow, adjusted EBITDA, AFFO and AFFO per share. We produced over $2 billion in revenue for the first time in our history and we grew full year AFFO per share by 11.7% over 2018 and by 13.1% on a constant currency basis.

We also grew our portfolio at the high-end of our 5% to 10% goal and we expanded into an attractive and exciting new market, South Africa. We completed several debt transactions improving our cost of financing with each one. We bought back over 2 million shares of our stock at an average price of $231.87 and we began paying a quarterly dividend ahead of schedule.

All of this was accomplished notwithstanding the domestic industry-wide slowdown for our customers during the second half of the year resulting from the uncertainties surrounding the outcome of the T-Mobile, Sprint transaction. As I said, 2019 was a very good year for SBA.

Looking ahead now to 2020 and beyond, we are very excited about the prospects for SBA. We anticipate the resolution of the legal challenges to the T-Mobile, Sprint transaction will set us up for significant network investment by our U.S. customers involved in the transaction including DISH beginning in the second half of the year.

In order to meet their required 5G coverage goals, the new T-Mobile will require meaningful upgrades across their combined portfolio deploying 2.5 gigahertz spectrum to legacy T-Mobile sites and 600 megahertz spectrum to legacy Sprint sites.

These efforts will drive amendment activity for SBA. DISH, now on track to be clear fourth nationwide facilities-based carrier will need to invest heavily as well deploying a brand new 5G network across the country.

DISH’s build-out will drive new collocation opportunities for SBA. And Verizon and AT&T share their own 5G initiatives ahead which we believe will lead them to embrace the new competitive landscape and continue to invest significantly in their own networks.

The release of more 5G-enabled devices and the advent of more and more new 5G applications will be continued catalysts for the network investment required to support these technologies. The initial 5G deployment cycle has really only just begun, particularly as it relates to macro sites and the deployment mid-band spectrum in massive MIMO architecture and we expect this to be a very long cycle.

The anticipated auctions of CBRS and C-Band spectrum later this year will only serve to further support this upward investment trajectory over the next several years. Outside of the U.S., the future for our international business looks bright as well. Our leading market in terms of new leasing activity has continued to be Brazil, our largest international market.

During the fourth quarter, our presence in Brazil got even larger with the acquisition of over 1300 sites in GTS. This acquisition brings our site count in Brazil of almost 10,000 towers. We saw activity in the fourth quarter from all four major carriers in Brazil, primarily around their 4G networks and the future prospects in this market looks strong.

From a macro level, Brazil has seen economic stability largely restoring with pension reform approved, inflation under control, record low interest rates driven by four consecutive rate reductions and increases in foreign direct investments. The Brazilian foreign exchange rate however has been somewhat volatile and generally continued to weaken.

We are optimistic that the positive economic trends in Brazil will ultimately translate into a more stable exchange rate. Nonetheless, our 2020 full year outlook does reflect a headwind from the Brazilian Reais compared to last year.

Across our other international markets, we anticipate steady leasing contributions during 2020, as well as the largest contributions to our portfolio growth. On a company-wide basis, we are again targeting 5% to 10% portfolio growth in 2020. In order to achieve this level of growth, we will have to identify one or more quality tower portfolios at appropriate price levels.

I am particularly proud of our track record in selecting – in selectively acquiring high quality assets at disciplined prices and I am confident we will be able to continue and identifying and securing these types of opportunities. In addition to portfolio growth, I expect us to continue to execute well on further enhancing our capital structure, as well as our capital allocation to stock repurchases and cash dividends.

On the capital structure front, we had a very strong 2019 completing our largest single tranche ABS deal in the company’s history at a very attractive rate repricing our $2.4 billion term loan with a 25 basis point reduction at par and subsequent to year end, closing on our lowest cost, high-yield issuance in company history.

During the fourth quarter, we also received an across the board increase in our credit rating from Moody’s evidencing not only the high quality of our business, but also the liquidity and stability in our capital structure. We continue to actively evaluate our existing capital structure and look for further opportunities to take advantage of the current low interest rate environment in order to both extend maturities and improve the cost of our debt.

With regard to capital allocation, we again had a strong year in 2019, not only growing our tower portfolio by almost 10%, but we also repurchased our stock opportunistically investing over $470 million to retire over 2 million shares and we commenced paying a dividend in the third quarter. We expect to continue returning capital to shareholders through both share buybacks and dividends during 2020.

On the dividend front, we are very pleased to announce our first quarter dividend today. Our dividend represents an almost 26% increase over the dividend paid out last quarter and I believe that will represent one of the highest dividend increases this year anywhere, certainly in the real estate investment trust space.

Our current dividend represents approximately only 20% of our 2020 outlook for AFFO, meaning that we have substantial capital still available for our portfolio growth and share repurchases. In addition, maintaining our leverage in the high six times to low seven times range, provides us with even more capital to continue investing in the business.

We are positioned extremely well to take advantage of all future opportunities and continue growing AFFO per share.

Finally, I’d like to again thank our team members and our customers for their contributions to our success in 2019. It truly was a great year. With their continued contributions, we are very excited for a tremendous 2020 and beyond.

And with that Julio, we are now ready for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We have Cusick for the first question. Go ahead.

P
Philip Cusick
JP Morgan

Hi, it’s Phil Cusick from JP Morgan. It sounds like as we model 2020, we should think about the first half activity slower to the fourth quarter activity. And then ramping in the back half. Can you give us any update on the Sprint, T-Mobile or DISH cadence of potential network planning? And when those two start to really impact numbers? Thanks.

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

Lot of discussions, Phil, but no real operational activity yet. Of course, given the fact that there is no closing and while I believe that things will begin to move pretty quickly, particularly on the T-Mobile side, DISH had their own commentary yesterday as to the cadence of what they will be doing.

But on the T-Mobile side, I think they will go quickly once the deal closes. But I think we are going to have to wait and see as to when that happens. They need to get through the California PSC and I think some other things. I think there is a lot of folks ready to go, but they are just waiting for the starting on.

P
Philip Cusick
JP Morgan

Okay. And then, a separate topic, can you give us any early read on the South Africa business, sort of how you think about that now that is under your belt and attractiveness of other markets as you look out over the next year? Thanks.

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, we like South Africa a lot, I mean, within our four years of investment there, we took close to a 1,000 towers and they’d be actually 1,000 today I am not quite sure to tell, but it’s getting off close to over two tenants per tower with a very good return on investment.

A dynamic market, lot of room for additional Greenfield builds. All the things we look for. So we are very excited about the ability to continue to grow in that market. We will continue to look for markets like that. We think there are some out there.

They are not tens or twenties of those kinds of markets. But there are some out there. We are going to continue to pursue them and if you don’t mind, I am not going to name them.

P
Philip Cusick
JP Morgan

Okay. And then, if I can just follow-up and be even more explicit since we are almost two months into the quarter, it looks like we should be assuming that activity in 1Q is probably even below 4Q. Is that a good starting point?

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I don’t know if you should assume it this below. But I think, you should take the comments about things came to a pretty abrupt slowdown, at least with respect to several customers in August. And the reason things changed to that slowdown have not changed as of today.

P
Philip Cusick
JP Morgan

Okay. Thanks, Jeff.

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes.

Operator

Next question is from Spencer Kurn from New Street Research. Go ahead.

S
Spencer Kurn
New Street Research

Hey guys. Thanks for taking the question. Could you just remind us of your average remaining lease term with Sprint? And how are you thinking about approaching the decommissioning of Sprint’s network? Do you see value in signing in increments that would minimize churn? Or would you take a similar approach as you did with IDEN and coordinate a steady decommissioning schedule? Thanks.

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, Spencer, on the overlap, the average remaining terms for the Sprint leases on sites really overlap the T-Mobile is about 4.5 years.

B
Brendan Cavanagh
EVP and Chief Financial Officer

Yes, I am confident given the complexities of what will need to be accomplished by the new T-Mobile, Spencer, that we will have an opportunity to address those issues and again we have no kind of religious opposition to MLAs and if it makes sense, for both parties, as we have in the past, we would do one.

S
Spencer Kurn
New Street Research

Great. Thanks. And one other question, could you just talk about the amendment pricing that you tend to see for mid-band spectrum like 2.5 or potentially CBRS and C-Band and how that relates to what you’ve been seeing for low-band spectrum over the last couple of years? Thank you.

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

We don’t want to get too specific. The incidence of CBRS amendments haven’t been that numerous yet and there is really only of course been one customer that has deployed mid-band and the massive MIMO architecture.

And I would say the amendment pricing has been reasonable fair and consistent with all the other types of amendments that we’ve done over the years in terms of dice and weight and all the things that have kind of gone into the way we’ve conducted our business.

S
Spencer Kurn
New Street Research

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Next question is from Colby Synesael from Cowen and Company. Go ahead.

C
Colby Synesael
Cowen and Company

Hey, thank you. We had an expectation that churn domestically in the U.S. have come down or improved in 2020 versus 2019. It doesn’t looks like that’s happening. I waswonderingif you can give some color around that.

And then secondly, as it relates to the GTS acquisition, I appreciate you gave, I think some 15 times tower cash flow, but I was wondering if you could be just more explicit and tell us what the expectation is for revenue and EBITDA in 2020. Thank you.

B
Brendan Cavanagh
EVP and Chief Financial Officer

Colby, first on the churn, it is down slightly because, in terms of same tower analysis due to the falling off of the IDEN churn that took place in the fourth quarter of last year, but as we look out to next year, some of that’s a reduction due to the loss of IDEN is being offset by a little bit of a slight elevation in Q4 churn notices that come from a variety of miscellaneous items.

I mentioned some of those items in the scripted comments, if there is a number of smaller customers that are modifying or shutting down older technologies for one. An example of that is we had a one regional carrier who had previously entered into some leases with us for 4G installations that we had reported in the past is leased out.

But those were separate and apart from their pre-existing leases for their 3G installations which they are now decommissioning. And so, we’ve had a few slogs of things that were a little more than what we typically see and because it’s happening in the fourth quarter, that carries over into the 2020 numbers.

C
Colby Synesael
Cowen and Company

GTS.

B
Brendan Cavanagh
EVP and Chief Financial Officer

Oh, GTS. Yes, so, on GTS, the numbers around tower cash flow contribution or EBITDA contribution is approximately $30 million for next year, a little over $30 million, $31 million. Now that can be affected of course by where the FX rate shakes out. But that was our expectation when we put the guidance together and from a revenue standpoint, it’s approximately a little more than 40, 42-ish.

C
Colby Synesael
Cowen and Company

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Next question from Simon Flannery, Morgan Stanley. Go ahead.

S
Simon Flannery
Morgan Stanley

The guidance. How are you thinking about AT&T and Verizon? We obviously heard Verizon last week talking a lot about diversification. But the FirstNet project is moving along. So is that fairly level year-to-year? Or any big changes you might call out? And then, you touched on CBRS there a minute ago.

We got the auction coming up. How are the carriers you are talking to thinking of deploying that is still very much in small cell indoor type environment? Or do you think there might be potential to use it more broadly on macro cells?

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

First question, Simon, is our guidance assumes essentially the same or certainly materially the same contributions from AT&T and Verizon. And in terms of the CBRS, primarily because of this hour and which of course affects the range, the CBRS will be more of a small cell indoor.

But there will be some macro uses as well and we are actually – we have some applications for outdoor uses. So, it will be across the board. But we’ve don’t think for at least for SBA, the CBRS spectrum will be nearly as impactful as the C-Band spectrum will be.

S
Simon Flannery
Morgan Stanley

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Next question is from Ric Prentiss with Raymond James. Go ahead.

R
Ric Prentiss
Raymond James

Thanks. Good afternoon guys.

B
Brendan Cavanagh
EVP and Chief Financial Officer

Hey, Ric.

R
Ric Prentiss
Raymond James

Hey. Couple questions. One, how should we think about the process flow as far as when applications start coming with the T-Mobile, Sprint merger with amendment activities that applications could turn into revenues. Is it a three month, six month process or possibly longer?

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

It depends on what they want to do. Amendments can go quicker, have a history of going quicker, certainly much quicker than brand-new leases. So, yes, I would use 3 to 6 as opposed to 6 plus on a colo.

R
Ric Prentiss
Raymond James

Makes sense. And like you said, you are not opposed to MLAs, particularly given the complexity of this thing. Is there the possibility of doing involving DISH in it as well? DISH on their call talked about how they are interested potentially in some of the Sprint decommission sites. So, what’s the process for them to take over those leases or weave it into an MLA?

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, we got to know what leases you are talking about first. And we are not anywhere close to that and then you have to match up heights and terms and things like that. The – my personal opinion is, while there will be a lot of business from DISH and the spring up of space and the inventory of what is available will be great for both DISH and the tower industry.

The exact matching of existing Sprint or T-Mobile leases that are to be decommissioned, that’s going to be a tougher match.

R
Ric Prentiss
Raymond James

Sure. Makes sense. And then, I think, we’ve heard from AT&T that their Firstnet project was maybe 75% done, but I am not – I am sure that’s probably not equal across the whole country. As you think about how much you’ve seen touches from AT&T. Can you give us an indicator of where you think they are in the project based on your sites?

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

I think their 75% includes a lot of advance work, I think, from our perspective, we think it’s closer to 50%.

R
Ric Prentiss
Raymond James

As far as touching your sites?

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, in terms of work yet to be done.

R
Ric Prentiss
Raymond James

Sure. Okay. And last one for me, you mentioned CBRS could be some indoor systems or small cell systems, what’s your appetite given your balance sheet and your ability to put money to work on a shared infrastructure to get involved and maybe neutral host indoor systems and how big could that opportunity be? And what’s the timeline?

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, our appetite for the right deal is quite large. The – finding the right opportunities are more difficult. They are asset-by-asset type of opportunities. And we are pursuing that area. We’ve actually added some resources there, because we do think there will be some good opportunities. But it’s an asset-by-asset hunt.

R
Ric Prentiss
Raymond James

Sure. And timeframe as far, is it kind of more like a 2021 event? Or it starts becoming noticeable then for the industry?

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I mean, there is things going on now and now there are folks that are building out DAS systems and I think it will be converted to CBRS and folks that are interested in types of technologies today that will be converted to CBRS. So, it’s evolving our – just like we have always approached the tower business. We are very much focused on looking for the best assets.

R
Ric Prentiss
Raymond James

Okay. And then, congrats on a nice return on your stock buyback. That was very attractive, obviously.

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, thank you.

Operator

Next question is from Brandon Nispel from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Go ahead.

B
Brandon Nispel
KeyBanc Capital Markets

Hey. Thanks for taking the questions. Two, if I could. You guys are obviously excited about through the second half of 2020 relative to the second half of 2019. Can you maybe just help quantify thoughts what you would expect to see from a increase in the backlog perspective from a year-over-year basis?

Secondly, Jeff you talked a lot about massive MIMO antennas. Have you been able to sort of determine in your conversations with customers how deep into the network those type of antennas will need to go? And then, maybe further to be able to quantify for us what that would mean in terms of an amendment? Thanks.

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

I think they are going to go fairly deep to achieve true 5G outside of the dense urban markets. All of the work that I have seen indicates that that’s what you need in the macro world. And you really do need the mid-band spectrum to do it, which I think explains a lot of the different carrier spending patterns.

I don’t want to get too much in. I think I commented enough on the amendment pricing earlier about how that gets priced. So if you look back at Spencer’s question, you’ll have your answer there. And in terms of the backlogs, yes, it all depends on when these deals get done.

I mean, these – the backlogs I think will grow very, very quickly. It could grow – it could double or more in fairly short order. I do believe lot of work has already been done in terms of what needs to be done to the network. Really a question when is the deal going to be approved and I do think I said six months ago, I think you’ll see a lot of activity.

B
Brandon Nispel
KeyBanc Capital Markets

And I guess, just a follow-up, the only thing that you need to operationally to prepare for that and any limiting factors such as tower climbers that could make it so the growth doesn’t come in as fast as you expect? Thanks.

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

We tend to retain given our size of our company and our benefit plans. We are pretty good employer. And we will tend to use our tower climbers to make sure that the work will get done on our towers to make sure that the amendments and the colos are our towers get done. So we can prioritize there.

So it will be okay. There will be some general shortages in the industry, but I don’t think it will be catastrophic. I mean, it will be an issue, but we always get through it as an industry.

B
Brandon Nispel
KeyBanc Capital Markets

Thank you.

Operator

Next question is from Nick Del Deo from MoffettNathanson. Go ahead.

N
Nick Del Deo
MoffettNathanson

Hey, thanks for taking my questions. I assume it's a very small number, but can you share the number of domestic towers you own that effectively can't accommodate another tenant? And sort of related to that, is there any reason a player like DISH wouldn’t be satisfied with the height of the RAD centers you tend to have available?

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

Second question answer is no. First, I am sure, we have some, but 20, 30, 40, very, very small.

N
Nick Del Deo
MoffettNathanson

Okay. So it’s any material number.

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. I mean, the towers – there are towers that require augmentations, but virtually every site we have can be augmented to accommodate additional. So it would be de minimis.

N
Nick Del Deo
MoffettNathanson

Okay. Got it. And then, when you are negotiating with a upstart network like DISH, are you inclined to try to get some sort of guarantee for the parent company on the lease or are you satisfied with the wireless operating entity is being the sole signatory?

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

That’s probably more information that we’d like to talk about on the call.

N
Nick Del Deo
MoffettNathanson

Okay. Fair enough. Thank you.

Operator

Next question is from Brett Feldman from Goldman Sachs. Go ahead.

B
Brett Feldman
Goldman Sachs

Thank you. I guess, it came out during the trial that DISH has signed master service agreements that cover over 30,000 sites I am not entirely sure what those are, but I am curious whether you are a party to any of them and if they’ve made any commitments to you?

And then, second, you’ve not done a significant amount of domestic tower M&A recently and there is a range of reasons you’ve stated for that in the past. But one of them was, there was a big mismatch between the valuations of private tower assets in the U.S. and where your stock was trading.

Your stock has obviously performed a lot better. I am wondering if that’s changed the math such that there might be more opportunities to make domestic accretive acquisitions or if asset quality is really the gating factor as opposed to just the price. Thanks

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, Brett, my belief on the first question is that, when DISH was building out their IoT network, they did sign up a number of master agreements including one with us. And in the course of that, a number of companies, including us submitted all of their portfolios. So that DISH was able to analyze those and figure out which of those towers would be suitable for that project and now they are able to do the same for the broadband network.

So that is what that statement was all about. So that was under kind of the different – that was under the narrow band project. But the work that the – the work that they did about how many towers that they’ve analyzed that would be suitable for their uses that was true.

So your second question, in terms of the M&A, some of the stuff that we announced is actually more of what we have in the pipeline is in the U.S. actually. And there are – there is still – there is a lot of price competition. Still there is some varying quality of folks who have done some things that to their terms and conditions that we don’t really like. But there are still some good assets out there that we will pursue. And clearly, as we look at where we traded things like that, we would take that into consideration. But we are very interested as we always have been adding quality assets to the portfolio.

B
Brett Feldman
Goldman Sachs

Are you finding that valuation, the valuation gap has started to close or private multiples just expanding in conjunction with the public space?

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, we took about a four-turn jump in, after the T-Mobile, Sprint deal got announced by – I can't say, I'd see private multiples jump four-turns in two weeks. But I – who knows, who knows? So, let's just say hopefully the gap has closed a little bit.

B
Brett Feldman
Goldman Sachs

Got it. Thanks for taking the questions.

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

You bet.

Operator

Next question is from David Barden from Bank of America. Go ahead.

D
David Barden
Bank of America

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. Just on the dividend hike, obviously, the percentage is fairly eye popping, Jeff, as you pointed out. Your dollars aren't necessarily all that large.

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

Right.

D
David Barden
Bank of America

But I was wondering if you could kind of layout where you think the – what kind of message you want to send? Is this what SBA can do with a dividend growth stock for some extended period of time? Is this more of a just a signaling about your conviction in the next cycle would be helpful on that?

And then, the second question kind of related is, just given how strong the stock price move has been that we've seen in the last six to nine months, at what point do you start thinking about a split to try to make it easier for more money to kind of find its way into this, given that it's you have an income growth leap story? Thanks.

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

Your kind of perception – your former way you kind of talked about the dividend is correct, David. When you – when we kind of thought about this, it's more to give a longer, higher growth trajectory, because as we model things out, the first dividend we would had to pay when we got to the exhaustion of the NOLs, frankly would be higher than the dividend we are paying now.

So, you have to start out high and then, of course, grow it not by the same pace. So by doing this, we can grow it at a faster rate, which some people are going to like. We can control our remaining NOLs and frankly, we can payout less of our AFFO. So we think it's a win, win, win, win, which is why we chose to begin to pay it early. And even though we start small, we can grow it faster.

And then, on the split, I am ashamed to say I really hadn't thought of that. Do you think that's something we should do?

D
David Barden
Bank of America

I think people would love it.

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

All right. Well, we'll give it some thoughts. All you analysts weighing in. Send Mark. We could send Mark. Here you go. We'll take a short poll, we’d ask everybody in next question.

D
David Barden
Bank of America

There he goes. We will take a sell side poll.

Operator

And the next question is from Batya Levi with UBS. Go ahead.

B
Batya Levi
UBS

I am for it too. And in terms of the – maybe given the faster growth outlook that you are expecting as we exit the year, can you also remind us where you would like to be in terms of your leverage target? I think as you started to grow the dividend, you potentially thought that you might come inside the second level, but any updated thoughts there?

And then, a second question on, how you think you are positioned in terms of the rules which Sprint, T-Mo is expected to build over the next few years? And how you think about the leasing amendment mix change as we exit the year into next year?

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

So, if you looked at our guidance, Batya, if we don't spend some money on something, whether it's stock repurchases or portfolio growth, we are going to be in the mid-6s in leverage. So, - and that's not where we want to be.

So we would want to be high-6s to low-7s. So that's the – that's kind of the new area I think where we are targeting. And again, if we see something great to buy, we'd be very pleased to go above that for temporary period of time. I mean, the cash flow generation power of the business is pretty amazing.

So, on your second question, I think we are going to be very well positioned with T-Mobile. They are a very good customer of ours. We have a close relationship. We have a lot of work to do with them. And I think, we will be very a active partner in terms of both amendments and colocations, just as we were in the first half of last year prior to the August central shutdown.

B
Batya Levi
UBS

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

And speakers, no more questions so far.

J
Jeffrey Stoops
President and Chief Executive Officer

Great. Well, we really appreciate everyone joining us on kind of our year-end wrap up. And we look forward to sharing our 2020 results with you as we go. Thank you very much.

Operator

And that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T conferencing services. You may now disconnect.