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Better Collective A/S
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Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Better Collective First Quarter 2024 Presentation. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mikkel Munch-Jacobsgaard. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for our webcast. My name is Mikkel Munch Jacobsgaard and I'm the Vice President of Investor Relations, Group strategy and Corporate Communications here at Better Collective. As always, I'm joined by our Co-Founder and CEO, Jesper Sogaard; and CFO, Flemming Pedersen, who will help me walk you through our Q1 performance. Please follow me to the next page. We ask you to pay attention to this slide where we display our disclaimer regarding any forward-looking statements in today's webcast. Please turn to the next slide. Here you see today's agenda. Jesper will start by taking you through the highlights of Q1. Thereafter, Flemming will take you through the financial performance before handing back the word to Jesper for a business review. And then we of course end the call with a Q&A session.So let's get going. Please turn to the next page as I hand over the word to you, Jesper.
Thank you, Mikkel. Q1 marked another strong quarter for Better Collective with group revenue increasing by 8% to EUR 95 million. Recurring revenue grew 14% to EUR 53 million cementing another high quarter with increased quality and revenue and earnings. Group EBITDA before special items was EUR 29 million down 13% as expected due to tough comparisons, which Flemming will expand on a bit later on. In early 2024 we announced the completion of the Playmaker Capital acquisition making it the second largest acquisition to date in Better Collective's history. So far, the integration is progressing as planned and we are very excited to have welcomed the Playmaker Capital team to the Better Collective Group.We achieved notable success when the state of North Carolina launched online sports betting with revenue structured on a combination of revenue share and CPA-based contracts. I've been very pleased with our performance in North America where we have never been stronger positioned commercially. Post Q1, Better Collective acquired U.K. sports betting media AceOdds for a total consideration of EUR 42 million implying 4x last 12 months' EBITDA. AceOdds offers a comprehensive range of betting tools, art reviews and streaming schedules through its web and app-based platforms and comes with a significant amount of recurring revenue. Following the acquisition, Better Collective upgraded its 2024 full-year financial targets by EUR 5 million on revenue and EBITDA.Please follow me to the next page where I hand the word over to Flemming.
Thank you, Jesper. Please follow me to the next slide where we'll dive a bit deeper into the group's financial performance of the first quarter. As Jesper already pointed out, Q1 marked another good quarter with revenue increasing 8% to EUR 95 million with organic revenue growth down 6%. The growth was attained despite the oneoff overperformance last year during Q1, which included the launch of online sports betting in 2 major U.S. states, Massachusetts and Ohio. These state launches operate on a CPA-based model resulting in significant oneoff upfront revenue whereas the state launch of North Carolina during Q1 this year was a blend of recurring revenue share and CPA. As expected, the EBITDA was down year-on-year due to the aforementioned impact from receiving revenue on an upfront basis versus recurring revenue share income. The margin was also impacted by our Playmaker HQ and Playmaker Capital acquisitions being dilutive to group margins in the short term.Please follow me to the next slide. Our recurring revenue grew 14% to EUR 53 million now including significant audience-driven revenue from Playmaker Capital. Hence, signaling another quarter with revenue of higher quality. Recurring revenue makes up 56% of total group revenue, which we achieved even though our core revenue share markets in Europe and South America saw a reduction of more than 10% in the number of soccer games in major leagues when compared to last year as well as seeing a sports win margin below last year. Overall, an impressive performance building for Better Collective sustainable future growth. Please follow me to the next slide. With the release of our 2023 Annual Report, we also disclosed our 2024 financial targets as displayed on this slide in gray. After Q1 closing, we announced the acquisition of a leading U.K. sports betting brand AceOdds, which Jesper will be diving into later.With this acquisition, we upgraded our targets by EUR 5 million on revenue and EBITDA for the full year of 2024 highlighting the high margin business it is. This means we now expect EUR 395 million to EUR 425 million in revenue implying growth of 21% to 30% and EBITDA of EUR 130 million to EUR 140 million implying growth of 17% to 26% on that matrix. The net debt to EBITDA ratio remains unchanged at below 3x. Following the acquisition of Playmaker Capital earlier this year, we also raised our long-term financial targets for EBITDA from 30% to 40%, now 35% to 40% underscoring our confidence in achieving the synergies over time. This adjustment indicated that the buildup of synergy realization will be more pronounced in the latter part of our forecast period. During the quarter we raised 10% of new equity or around EUR 145 million for future M&A. During the process of dual listing in Copenhagen last year and the capital raise, we are excited to have welcomed a lot of new shareholders in Better Collective.Please turn to the next page and then I'll hand the word back to you, Jesper, for our Q1 business update.
Thank you, Flemming. Let's continue and please turn to the next page. In Q1 we saw good performance across all markets. Europe and Rest of the World showed outstanding performance with an impressive 20% growth, of which 5% was organic. This achievement was fueled by widespread impact across markets. Turning attention to the North American market, we're delighted with the progress made in Q1. We achieved notable successes during the North Carolina state launch and the Super Bowl events. North American NDCs were up versus last year, but revenue was down 8% and organic down 22% due to the already mentioned comparison and the ongoing revenue share transition. We increased our investment in revenue share, which will set us up well for sustained revenue in years to come. The mix of NDCs on revenue share versus upfront CPA was similar as in previous quarters.Last year we made our intention to acquire the sports media group, Playmaker Capital, public and successfully closed the acquisition early this year. Having only taken over the company in February, we are already observing positive trends. The cultural fit between our organizations is excellent and we see great opportunities to share knowledge across the teams. Overall, the integration of Playmaker Capital has progressed as planned and we have already observed encouraging early performance marketing results during the quarter stemming from affiliation revenue. I'm very excited to welcome the full Playmaker Capital team to the Better Collective Group. Additionally, our expansion into high level media; i.e., podcast, YouTube shows and social media content; has proven successful following last year's acquisition of Playmaker HQ. At one point, 3 out of the Top 5 sports podcasts in the U.S. on Spotify belonged to Better Collective.This strategic move has enriched our product offerings and amplified our reach within the North American audience cementing our leading position. As of now, we are looking into a busy summer with the European Championships and Copa America along with the Olympics and preparations are already in action, including concept developments and brand strategies tailored to maximize our impact. We anticipate that the European Championship will be a significant sporting event for our group positively contributing to growth. Please follow me to the next slide. After the closing of Q1, Better Collective has successfully completed the acquisition of the U.K. sports betting media brand AceOdds in a EUR 42 million transaction. Rooted in the U.K., AceOdds has over time experienced growing international interest, extending its reach beyond the U.K. borders.We recognize the potential in leveraging our local expertise across various regions to scale the brand globally capitalizing on this expansion opportunity. Despite already maintaining a robust presence in the U.K., this acquisition further solidifies Better Collective's position in one of the world's biggest markets for sports and sports fans. Established in 2008, AceOdds was founded with the aim of providing U.K. sports enthusiasts with an easy to use betting calculator. Over the years the brand has expanded significantly offering a well-regarded web platform featuring a range of betting tools, comparison features, live streaming schedules, an odds and parlay calculator and more. Additionally, AceOdds has introduced a popular app that has garnered hundreds of thousands of downloads.The acquisition aligns with Better Collective strategy exemplified on this slide of owning the full range of sports media across key regions spanning from traditional sportsbook comparison brands to general sports media, social media content creators, esports communities and beyond. The acquisition comes with a lot of recurring revenue and we paid EUR 42 million for the brand, which implies a last 12-month EBITDA multiple of 4x. As Flemming mentioned, we upgraded our guidance with EUR 5 million on revenue and EBITDA for 2024. Please turn to the next page. We remain focused in building out a global network of leading sports media brands entertaining a global sports audience. Currently we engage with sports fans by having more than 400 million monthly visits across our network.Please turn to the next slide. On May 5, just 2 weeks ago, Google activated a new policy focusing on third-party content across a variety of different commercial categories. This impacted the rankings and thereby traffic to some of our media partnerships. Better Collective remains proud of the partnerships we have developed with general media and is working closely together with all parties involved to address the changes. An additional consequence of the update has been improved rankings towards some of the proprietary sports media owned by us resulting in increased traffic. Better Collective mainly works on revenue share with our media partners hence the short-term revenue and earnings impact from this change is estimated to be limited and thereby to be contained within current guidance.It is still very old days to comment on the mid-to-long term impact hence what the NDC mix will be between owned and operated and media partnerships. Please turn to the next page. So to summarize the quarter. We saw solid performance across the group with good recurring revenue growth. EBITDA was EUR 29 million, down 13% as expected due to tough comparisons. Better Collective secured notable success when the state of North Carolina launched online sports betting with revenue structured on a combination of revenue share and CPA-based contracts. In Q1 we closed the Playmaker Capital acquisition and since February when we took over the group, the integration has been going as planned and we see a great cultural fit between us. We acquired a leading U.K. sports betting media brand in AceOdds securing a stronger foothold in that market. And lastly, we are now looking forward to a very busy summer ahead.This concludes our webcast presentation. I'll now pass the word back to the operator and open for questions from the audience. Thank you for listening in.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Peter Sebastian from Nordea.
So I have a few, I'll just take them 1 by 1. First is on the Google update here as you allude to, Jesper. So you say that you see a negative traffic effect on your media partnerships from the new policy here, but that traffic on your own operated sports media portfolio has increased. So I believe what the market is looking for here is some sort of guidance on net effects. So could you provide any help or maybe try to expand on the dynamics here? So what could be the net effects of this new policy change as you see it?
Sebastian, thanks for the question. Well, let me start by our approach overall to the digital sports media market, which obviously is what we're very excited about. Our approach is that we want to be relevant in all forms of media consumption. So we started out with our owned and operated and have been building that and also acquiring a lot of those media in recent years. Five years ago we then developed the media partnerships, which we are very proud of, where we're working with some of the strongest media brands globally. Few years later we acquired a paid media business that has seen substantial growth. More recently we have acquired businesses focused on high level media producing podcasts, YouTube shows and a lot of social media content.And what I'm saying with this is that the category for us is where we need to have as much optionality as possible and have been successful in creating that and I think this is actually -- so to come back to your question, we are now seeing sort of the effect of having that diverse optionality. As you rightfully alluded to, we see an impact here on our media partnerships, but have also noticed a positive development in the search rankings and total audience to our owned and operated. It's just 2 weeks ago so to be honest, the net of this is very early to estimate. But again we have restated the guidance that we have in place and therefore can absorb the effect within the guidance.
Okay. And I guess you also restate your medium-term guidance so I guess you also think as of now that you can absorb this into your medium-term guidance as well. Is that how to think about it?
Correct.
Okay. And just last question on this Google topic. So considering that traffic is shifting from partnerships where you share margins, now talking from an affiliate perspective. So your traffic is shifting from partnerships where you share margins to sort of your own 100% margin owned affiliate side. So is it fair to assume that there is also a scenario where the net EBITDA effect could actually be positive over time?
Again it's very early days with this, but I do follow your question and I would probably revert back to what I started saying is we're focused on the entire category and creating optionality and being best possible positioned for all forms of sports entertainment media consumption. And I think again this is actually a testament to this strategy what we are seeing right now. But yes, it's too early to comment on the effect of this for the long term to be honest, Sebastian.
That's totally fair. And then just my last question. On your latest acquisition AceOdds, seems like a different beast compared to Playmaker Capital at least, more towards traditional affiliation. Is this among sort of the last relevant pure affiliate assets for Better Collective out there or how do you view sort of the M&A landscape from here?
No, I would not say that it's the last and I think in general we have a big pipeline. And just to give you a sense of AceOdds and the developments over time. The first time we had a touch point with the former owner of AceOdds was in 2016 where we were in contact and he wasn't interested in selling. And we have this very big pipeline that we constantly work with and we have a wide range of sports media that we think are relevant in any given market. This more relates to sports betting media as you rightfully put it, Sebastian, more the traditional affiliate business where we started out in Better Collective. But in a market as big as the U.K., we really want to own the whole range of media so also the traditional sports media with news, we want to be relevant within arts and in this case like a betting calculator we are also gaining with this acquisition. So to me, this is spot on to the strategy of owning the different kinds of media where we know there's significant demand. As an example, AceOdds has around 1 million monthly visits for this niche area of sports betting in media. So to me, this fits well and I believe we have also been able to secure an attractive deal for Better Collective.
And the next question comes from the line of Poul Jessen from Danske Bank.
I'm coming back to 1 of the answers you had before of the long-term guidance. First, you say that you confirm the long-term guidance and afterwards you say it's too early to assess an impact from the Google changes on your long-term guidance. So how should that be understood?
Well, we restate the long-term guidance. What we say is that since this change of policy, which it is, and just to maybe give a bit of color to what this is. It's a change in policy where third-party content providers to established media sites have been affected and this ranges from voucher codes to restaurants, different kinds of coupon codes within many, many commercial categories and then also within sports betting. And we know this is of course impacting our partners here. We work with them to mitigate the impact and basically resolve this, but we don't know like the continued development of this. And I think it's relevant to know that when there are significant changes in the search landscape, it takes time to fully digest sort of the evolution of this. Also coming back to the part of we are not really commenting on the long-term effects for our owned and operated, which as we allude to, could also be positive in this scenario. So that's basically it. But the current changes and the result of those, we maintain this year's guidance and the long-term guidance.
Okay. And then when you say that your owned and operated websites has seen increased traffic and rankings, then you say some of that. How should we read the word some? Is that 2 of them has had a positive impact and then 30 has had neutral?
Well, we will not single out, but it is sort of on a broad range that we have seen a positive effect in our owned and operated business. And then on our media partnerships, some that are affected by this.
Okay. Is it possible to get any indications if you look at NDCs, how much is coming from media partners and how much is coming from your own pages? I was just seeing you say that about 300 million visits is coming from partner sites, that's 40%, 45% of all your visits. Is that an indication of how the split of [ indices ] as well or is it totally different?
We haven't commented on the mix of the indices related to the media partnerships and the owned and operated and we will not change that now. I'll probably just sort of restate that we are not updating or making change to the guidance here so we can absorb the effect of this.
Okay. Then 2 questions on the financials on the quarter. You say that Europe and South America was impacted by less matches and also that the sports win margin was not favorable during the quarter. Is that a material impact on Europe or is it just to highlight some of [Technical Difficulty]?
So the number of games, there is a fairly direct correlation between the number of games and the sports betting activity. So that is sort of, as said, a fairly good correlation between activity levels and number of games. Then on the other part to the sports win margin, it was more or less as expected for us, but just noting that it was lower compared to last year.
And the final one, AceOdds, you say that it has a very high margin. You said about 50% or so on the EBITDA level. I was just considering that you have the same change to revenue as you did to EBITDA based on the acquisition?
Perhaps I can answer that, Poul. Yes, I think we can safely say that and refer back to the guidance. It is a very high margin business. And what we are gaining with that brand and the domain is also, as we state, a lot of recurring revenue that has been built over time. So the margin is very high. So that's correct.
And the next question comes from the line of Oscar Ronnkvist from ABG Sundal Collier.
The first one, I would just continue on the guidance. So you upgraded the revenue guidance by EUR 5 million, but I suppose that you have more than EUR 5 million in contribution from AceOdds. So just wondered, I guess that we could interpret this as sort of an underlying cut on the top line guidance or the target for 2024. So is this related to the Google update or have you seen any other sort of impacts on the top line except for just the Google update, which came now in the beginning of May?
Oscar, Flemming here. The upgrade of guidance is solely related to AceOdds. Please remember that we will include it for a period of, say, 7 months after the acquisition. So in this case, revenue and earnings are very much -- going to say they are close. So hence, we have not included any other effects to answer your question directly.
All right. Got it. And then just I had a few questions on Playmaker. So it was break even in the first 2 months and I know that you say that this was very muted in the beginning and then seasonality-wise it's increasing towards Q4. So just wanted to hear anything sort of on the magnitude of that and if the first 2 months was in line with your expectations or if the sort of breakeven is slightly below. I know that you are -- you say that you want to have some sort of transition towards rev share, which is weighing on the margin short term and obviously also on the top line. So just if you could walk us through the beginning of the trajectory here for the synergies that you are talking about for Playmaker? And then also if you again could just repeat, you're essentially buying AceOdds for 1/3 of the valuation compared to Playmaker and it seems like you have pretty visible synergies in both of them. So I know that obviously there's a different sort of mix in Playmaker that makes it attractive, but 3x the multiple is -- do you still think that 12x is a pretty fair multiple for this compared to companies such as AceOdds or is it very hard or difficult to find more M&A opportunities such as AceOdds for 4x multiple?
Yes, I'll try to answer and perhaps I'll start with the latter one because clearly they are very different in nature. As Jesper alluded to and also it is our strategy to be relevant in all categories across sports betting and sports media consumption. Playmaker Capital, what we acquired with that was a vast portfolio of sports media across the Americas where we have not really -- there's been almost no monetization on the performance marketing channel so mostly display advertising whereas AceOdds is completely the opposite. So it's 2 different assets basically and thereby very difficult to compare with AceOdds. We're also buying a lot of recurring revenue. So coming back to Playmaker Capital, it was really as expected.In the early phases, we expect it to be in a break-even mode and now we are applying performance marketing. And for the bigger portfolio, I can say what we call football sites within Playmaker being South American exposed, there we are going into the active sports season now. So there is some seasonality to it that we also had in our expectation. So Playmaker Capital is playing out as expected. And to come back also on Jesper's comment on owned and operated, that is a portfolio that is adding to our own and operated sports media with big audience. So they are both, you can say, fulfilling parts of where we want to be, but they're very different and also hence difficult to compare in trading multiples.
All right. Got it. Just sort of follow-up on Playmaker then. So I think that you said when you acquired it that you expected muted growth or maybe flattish growth for the asset just because of the transition towards rev share on the top line. So I think it did EUR 15 million when you acquired it in the last 12 months EBITDA. So are you still expecting around a EUR 15 million contribution on an EBITDA level or do you think that EBITDA should come down the first year after you have included it or you having it consolidated in your business?
No, it's actually still in line with our expectations that we would assume flat growth in the first year. You can say the 2 months that we actually included was 2 months earlier than we anticipated. So I would say that's the only change from when we acquired it. We thought we would close in April. Now we closed with effect so we could take it in from February actually so 2 months earlier. But the earnings expectations are unchanged.
All right. So flat so still around EUR 15 million for the first 12 months of inclusion?
Yes. Correct.
All right, perfect. My next question would be on the NDC. So given your transition towards revenue share contracts, I think your NDC development on a rev share contract is flat year-over-year, also including small contribution maybe from the acquisitions and also it's 20% below Q2 last year, which also was a quarter without any big men's football championship. So I think that you seem pretty comfortable with the underlying performance or if I'm interpreting you right or how should we think about the NDC development? Is this solely because you're focusing on, I don't know, diversifying your revenue streams towards CPM and other stuff or how should we think about the underlying demand for your services here?
So basically we're satisfied with the development of NDCs given the different measures we have already discussed around the fewer state launches and fewer major soccer games during the quarter. One thing we have noticed is that Brazil is seeing a lower activity than in previous quarters and we believe some partners are preparing for a larger investment spree in anticipation of rumored regulations expected later this year. However, we're still hesitant to project the exact timing of these regulations as that is basically just speculation. But that is sort of what we are noticing in Q1.
All right. Yes, that's very fair. I think other operators have also highlighted Brazil as a bit on the low side ahead of the regulation. So I guess that that's a big NDC market for you. Is that how to read it?
Correct.
And the next question comes from the line of Hjalmar Ahlberg from Red Eye.
Maybe just 1 more question on media partnership and just looking into the Euro football championship. At least comparing to historical FIFA World Cup maybe, you saw pretty strong growth on NDC. Do you think it will be tough to achieve the same kind of levels considering that media partnership might be softer in the short term or could you mitigate this by own assets so to say?
As I alluded to in earlier questions, it's too early to assess the sort of mix of NDCs from owned and operated and the media partnerships. We feel we are well positioned for the upcoming European championship and we'll see a significant effect. So the answer would be that we're still really excited about this and think it will have a big effect on the performance.
All right. And then looking on U.S. and North Carolina launch, which was in March there. I guess you had little bit more rev share than CPA than usual, but could you also comment anything on CPA levels maybe in that launch compared to Ohio last year? For example is it CPA levels coming down as well or they are similar in that launch?
Well, what we see in North America is different agreement and deals with different partners. What we are truly excited about is that we feel we have never been as strong commercially as we are right now and I think that's a natural development of the position we now have in North America with a lot of different strong brands in various formats, both the written and in audio, strong on social media. And we really sense that on the partner side it's being acknowledged this position and therefore, we commercially have never been in a better position than we are right now in North America.
All right. And looking a bit on overall seasonality and inclusion of Playmaker Capital. We have your full year guidance and we know Q1 now. But if you give some flavor on Q2 and Q3, maybe I guess April and May will be a bit softer in both terms of top line contribution and therefore also profitability and then Q3, Q4 stronger. So will Q2 be kind of the softest quarter and then Q3, Q4 stronger?
I think we put out a full year guidance and we don't guide on orders. I would look to previous seasonalities. Also if you can look back now, it was just in '22 that we had the World Cup during Q4, but normally you have these kind of tournaments during the summer and I would look towards those years to have comparisons.
All right. And just a final question maybe on your strong balance sheet here. Do you see potential for M&A? Are you also looking at some more kind of operational investments like the AdVantage platform or will you mostly look at M&A in terms of capital investments?
Yes, I can answer that. We are of course, as Jesper alluded to, always looking at new M&A. That's still an important part of our strategy. We have a very important project, as we allude to, with AdVantage that we are really focused on seeing through. So we don't have any other bigger planned technology investments as of now. So as you know, AdVantage is a key project for us so that's our core focus right now.
As there are no further questions on the phone line. I would now like to hand over for any questions on the webcast.
Yes, there are a few. If we start, I think this one is maybe for you, Flemming. Could you elaborate about the raise in media partnership assets over the past quarters and I guess years?
For some of our longer lasting partnerships, you can say by IFRS measures, we are capitalizing certain parts of the payment structures as assets and then amortizing those over the duration of the contract. And then we have entered into new media partnerships, bigger ones also. So that is basically what is reflected on the balance sheet.
And then, Jesper, maybe 1 for you. We mentioned that we have 10% fewer football matches in Europe and South America during Q1 '24 than Q1 '23. How come? Would it all else equal be reasonable to expect more games in Q2 or how should it be considered?
So the impact you'll see on the football schedule will actually relate to the big championships. So due to the World Cup being played in November, December 2022; it was a condensed schedule prior to that sort of in the fall of '22 and also a condensed schedule in the first quarter of '23 because of the pause from the World Cup in order to allow the players to rest just on the back of the World Cup. And now we have the upcoming European Championship and Copa America, which means that the leagues end slightly earlier than in a year where there will be no big championships. So it comes down to the big championships that can affect the schedule of football matches.
And then we have a question here in terms of some of your peers expect to become the long-term winner following the recent Google policy change. Do you have any opinion on that?
Well, as I have said a couple of times, it's simply way too early to discuss. I may remind you that the update was made just 2 weeks ago. But fundamentally, we remain very proud of the media partnerships we have built and are committed to assist our partners moving forward.
And then we have a question here. Could you comment on the progress on AdVantage?
Yes, it's progressing as planned. It's an important internal development project both on the technical side and on the sales capability side and significant resources are dedicated to this. So we're pleased with the development.
And then we have another question that I can maybe take. If we could share the percentage of NDCs in North Carolina that were on revenue share? That's not something that we disclose and never have actually specifically on state launches also due to competition basically.Let me just see if we have more. I think that was it. So thank you all for showing interest in Better Collective and for listening in. Have a nice day.
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.