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Headwaters Co Ltd

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Headwaters Co Ltd
Price: 11 390 JPY -1.39%
Updated: Jun 13, 2024
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DCF Value

This DCF valuation model was created by Alpha Spread and was last updated on May 23, 2024.

Estimated DCF Value of one 4011 stock is 3 357.38 JPY. Compared to the current market price of 11 390 JPY, the stock is Overvalued by 71%.

DCF Value
Base Case
3 357.38 JPY
Overvaluation 71%
DCF Value
Worst Case
Base Case
Best Case
3 357.38
DCF Value
Worst Case
Base Case
Best Case
DCF Value: 3 357.38 JPY

Present Value Calculation

This block is the starting point of the DCF valuation process. It calculates the present value of a company's forecasted cash flows based on selected operating model. Adjust key parameters like discount rate and terminal growth, and alter inputs such as revenue growth and margins to see their impact on valuation.

DCF Model
Base Case Scenario

The present value of cash flows over the next 5 years amounts to 1B JPY. The present value of the terminal value is 4.4B JPY. The total present value equals 5.4B JPY.
Forecast Period
Discount Rate
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Terminal Growth
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DCF Value Calculation

This stage translates the present value into DCF value per share. For firm valuation models, it adjusts present value for debt and assets to derive equity value (skipped if using equity valuation model). Finally, this equity value is divided by the number of shares to determine the DCF value per share.

Present Value to DCF Value
Capital Structure

Present Value 5.4B JPY
+ Cash & Equivalents 897.9m JPY
Firm Value 6.3B JPY
- Minority Interest 3.2m JPY
Equity Value 6.3B JPY
/ Shares Outstanding 1.9m
4011 DCF Value 3 357.38 JPY
Overvalued by 71%

Valuation Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis
DCF Value Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis assesses how changes in key factors like revenue growth, margin, and discount rate affect a stock's DCF value. By visualizing various scenarios, from significant downturns to optimistic growth, this tool helps you understand potential valuation shifts, aiding in risk assessment and strategic decision-making.

DCF Financials
Financials used in DCF Calculation

2.5B 4.3B
Operating Income
200.9m 386.7m
182.4m 316.3m

See Also

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What is the DCF value of one 4011 stock?

Estimated DCF Value of one 4011 stock is 3 357.38 JPY. Compared to the current market price of 11 390 JPY, the stock is Overvalued by 71%.

The true DCF Value lies somewhere between the worst-case and best-case scenario values. This is because the future is not predetermined, and the stock's DCF Value is based almost entirely on the future of the company. Knowing the full range of possible stock DCF values gives a complete picture of the investment risks and opportunities.

How was the DCF Value calculated?

1. Present Value Calculation. Utilizing the DCF operating model, Headwaters Co Ltd's future cash flows are projected and then discounted using a chosen discount rate to determine its Present Value, which is calculated at 5.4B JPY.

2. DCF Value Calculation. The company's capital structure is employed to derive the total Equity Value from the previously calculated Present Value of the cash flow. This Equity Value, when divided by the total number of outstanding shares, yields the DCF Value of 3 357.38 JPY per share.