Itochu Corp

TSE:8001

Earnings Call Transcript 2021-Q2

[Tsuyoshi Hachimura, executive]

This is Tsuyoshi Hachimura, CFO of ITOCHU Corporation. Thank you for joining us today. Let me now present the business results. Please refer to the PowerPoint material as I present, starting with the summary of the financial results on Page 3. And also, I will refer to the quarterly segment information on pages 27 and 28. So please refer to those pages as well.

First, net profit attributable to ITOCHU for the fiscal year 2021 first half was JPY 252.5 billion, which was the third highest despite the COVID-19 impact.

Especially the Q2, the results was JPY 147.7 billion, which was the highest quarterly number. This quarterly number for Q2 is an increase year-on-year. The first quarter was minus 30% or less. So compared to that, there was a major recovery or improvement.

In this number, JPY 49.5 billion extraordinary gains and losses are included. Q1 number was JPY 16 billion, and Q2 number was JPY 33.5 billion. I will talk about those numbers later.

Excluding those extraordinary numbers, in the first half, the core profit was approximately JPY 203 billion, which was also our third highest. The Q1 core profit was JPY 88.8 billion. The core profit itself in Q2 increased by 30%. So we are steadily improving our core profit numbers.

Now we had the COVID-19 impact, and we think it's very important to compare the actual with the forecast. At the end of the Q1, we mentioned that it was JPY 70 billion. That was 150% that of the forecast. The first half, the forecast was JPY 178 billion. Second half was JPY 222 billion. So in comparison to JPY 178 billion, the actual results were 142%. And the yearly forecast is JPY 400 billion and achievement rate is 63%. We have not used the buffer of JPY 50 billion.

The impact from the COVID-19 for the first half is about JPY 40 billion. This is the major impact, but each segment showed strong recovery and resilience, and we -- there we worked on cutting and preventing. And a diversified portfolio is supported by the strong core profits. So we showed a very strong tolerance against economic volatility.

Excluding Machinery, 7 companies showed a higher profit in comparison to our forecast in the first half. Now year-on-year, comparison for 4 companies, including The 8th, ICT & Financial results and Food and Energy & Chemicals, increased. As for the ICT business in Japan and the meat business and the housing business in North America as well as chemical business and trading in Asia, China and Japan were strong. As for the negative businesses that were affected by the COVID-19 and also the challenged area in terms of the business model, include Textile or apparel and cars and CVS which showed a lower profit.

What are the reasons behind the strong numbers for the first half? I think that those numbers were better than the consensus. And as you can imagine, in Metals & Minerals, the iron ore prices were high, and this was already expected.

The new factor is in 8th Company, the FamilyMart delisting, which was not included in the original forecast. There was a removal of the deferred tax liability, and there was an extraordinary gain of JPY 30 billion. And those 2 factors were very major ones, which might be difficult for you to understand.

But excluding those extraordinary factors in Textile, Machinery, Energy & Chemicals and General Products & Realty and Food and ICT & Financial Business business, in all of those 6 companies, they have accumulated profit and they have lowered the losses. And as a total, there was a growth of about JPY 20 billion core profit.

And in September and October, we have reviewed our first half results, and we have seen the upside each time that we reviewed those numbers.

Going to Page 5, that is the cash flow, the cash flow from operating activities was a net cash inflow of JPY 459.1 billion, and core cash flow from operating activities was a net cash inflow of JPY 266 billion. Core cash -- free cash flow was a net cash outflow of JPY 59 billion.

Looking at Q2, the iron ore prices were higher, and there was a COVID-19 impact. So the generation of the free cash flow was JPY 170 billion, up JPY 74 billion from Q1.

And net investment cash flows was up by JPY 200 billion at JPY 325 billion. We have had the FamilyMart TOB in order to change the business model and invested in the listed subsidiaries and affiliates where the -- their market values are undervalued in order to support their management.

In the second half, we expect a large cash-out in relation to the delisting of the FamilyMart. But we keep our basic principle, that is to selectively invest based on the financial and fiscal discipline.

As a result of that, net investment cash flow -- or core free cash flow is minus JPY 59 billion. The JPY 71 billion is the dividend and share buyback. And after this number, there will be a negative of JPY 130 billion, and I will talk about this later.

Turning to balance sheet on Page 6. The most important thing on this page is the total shareholders' equity, which increased to JPY 3.176 trillion. Net DER improved to 0.74x. Also, the total assets, which was about the same as the end of March at JPY 10.9 trillion.

Due to the COVID-19, the trade receivables were down, but there was an increase of the fair value of stocks and Higher investments, so it offset each other.

Net interest-bearing debt with the FamilyMart TOB and dividend payment increased by about JPY 100 billion and reached JPY 2.354 trillion.

Now let's look at investments on Page 20. On this page, total of other major new investments was JPY 360 billion. Q1 was JPY 110 billion, so Q2 number was JPY 250 billion.

As for exit, in Q1, it was JPY 15 billion. So the total is JPY 35 billion here. That means that Q2 was JPY 20 billion.

Including all of them, the first half net investment amount was JPY 325 billion.

Now cash flows from the investing activities was JPY 138 billion. So the difference is JPY 187 billion. And the additional investments for the FamilyMart is considered to be a capital transaction, and this explains the big difference.

On this page -- or going to Page 24, which shows the major items of the cash flows. So if you do not find the numbers on Page 20, you will be able to find them on Page 24.

New investments in relation to the FamilyMart TOB is JPY 180 million, and the investment of FamilyMart to PPIH was JPY 25 billion. And there was additional investment in Tokyo Century, JPY 23 billion. And there are other fixed assets investment in other areas.

Now major exits include the asset replacement that we have been doing actively for the business innovation. The Q1 included the partial sales of the eGuarantee. And also, the Food-related exit overseas are also included, and those are included in JPY 35 billion.

Last month, we announced the sale of Japan Brazil Paper & Pulp, which has not been realized, so it's not included here.

Now for the full year forecast. On Page 8, you see the major indicators, which are not changed, and net profit forecast of JPY 400 billion remains the same. So our yearly target of JPY 400 billion, that is JPY 178 billion in first half and JPY 220 billion in second half. We believe that there will be some recovery from the COVID-19 impact. So we expect a higher profit in the second half.

So in the original plan, we mentioned the extraordinary gains of about JPY 50 billion, which includes the Japan Brazil Paper & Pulp and also the extraordinary gains of the FamilyMarket (sic) [ FamilyMart ] in Taiwan. Those are not yet realized, so not included. And also, at the beginning of the year, we mentioned JPY 50 billion buffer, which we have not yet used. And so this is a very strong start despite the COVID-19 impact.

Now in terms of the business confidence toward the second half, based upon the forecast of the BOJ and also other forecasts, overall economy still is tough, but we see some recoveries. But at the same time, there are a lot of uncertainties.

In -- Europe and also part of the U.S. are seeing the second wave of COVID-19, and we see the volatility of the international politics. So there are some downside risks of the economy.

And we are very much focused on the commitment-based management. And through this, we have gained the trust of the market. So we'd like to make sure that we achieve our target of JPY 400 billion of profit, and therefore, we have not revised our target. Despite the second half management environment, we'd like to make sure that we deliver on this commitment of JPY 400 billion and JPY 80 per share dividend.

And looking at what happens after Q3 and onwards, we would like to be able to make the judgment in a flexible manner. Now as for the uncertainties or concerns for the second half, as we already made the commitment as to achieving the JPY 400 billion and JPY 88 per share, those are not affected. But we have to say that there are some weaknesses in Textile, Machinery and FamilyMart business. And also, we need to make some improvements in terms of the percentage of the profit-making companies, which is 76.5%. And we have achieved higher than JPY 500 billion in fiscal '20, and we said that this year, we are taking a year off. But in order to go back to the growth track, we need to come up with the next medium-term management plan. Starting with the FY '22, we will make sure that we look at the asset replacement as well as the business model and work on the earn, cut and prevent.

Now let's go to Page 22. JPY 88 per share dividend remains unchanged. And also, we have a policy to improve the EPS every year. And even if the profit decreased, we've increased the dividend this year.

And as for the share buyback, on Page 21, we have the numbers of the share buyback, that is JPY 5.6 billion. In the first half, we bought back 2.4 million shares, and we announced additional buyback of 1.7 million shares.

Now concerning the buyback, the share price has been very high, but we will be aware of the share price floor. And if we judge that the market price is low, we will follow the rule and conduct the buyback effectively.

And then next, let me talk about extraordinary gains and losses. It seems that we have large numbers. Please refer to Page 7.

Q1, the extraordinary gain was JPY 16 billion, as I said, and Q2 is JPY 33.5 billion. So JPY 50 billion for the first half.

So the profit was generated as a result. But I must say that our management team has a very strong sense of crisis, and we have been actively replacing assets to innovate our business models. That includes the delisting of the FamilyMart as well as the sale of Japan Brazil Paper & Pulp.

And the major positive factors include lower tax expenses related to FamilyMart, which is JPY 35.5 billion you see on this page. This was a major factor.

Now looking at each company, there are different items. In Textile, the partial sales of the overseas business was a JPY 1 billion gain. And the Machinery, there was a collection of the specific credits and JPY 1 billion profit or gain. In Food, there was a reorganization of the distribution, which led to JPY 2.5 billion increase, and the sale of the grain-related business in U.S. led to JPY 1 billion gain. In General Products & Realty, there was a JPY 1.5 billion in Japan. And ICT & the Financial Business, the gain on eGuarantee was about JPY 12 billion. In 8th Company, the reversal of the FamilyMart deferred tax liabilities was JPY 35.5 billion. So on -- there was an impairment loss as well for the FamilyMart. JPY 12.5 billion is also included.

Now as others, CITIC, the investment in the affiliated company, that is McDonald, there was also a gain here is included in those numbers.

Now let me talk about the COVID-19 impact. For the full year -- or for the full year plan, we expected about JPY 42 billion -- JPY 40 billion to JPY 50 billion impact from the COVID-19. At the end of Q1, we had a JPY 20 billion impact. And we try to make the full year impact the forecast. And for the Q1, the FamilyMart COVID impact was not included. So our forecast for the full year was increased to JPY 60 billion.

Now at the end of the first half, so far the COVID-19 impact, we believe, is about JPY 40 billion. In Machinery and The 8th Company, higher than JPY 10 billion impact was observed. And the next biggest one is Textile. As well as, CITIC Bank

provision for the bad debt was increased. So those are included. And the General Products & Realty, also some negative.

But for the first half in Japan and North America, automobile and construction and the industrial machinery, those were affected greatly by COVID-19. In urban areas, people stayed home, and that led to the lower sales. And also, the domestic apparel sales declined, and the investment -- sorry, the inventories increased. So in Textile segment, we see loss-making companies.

As for convenience stores and restaurants and the wholesale Food business, there was an impact from COVID-19.

And due to the lockdown, our tire business in U.K. was affected in first half. And we are starting to see some recovery there, but that was an impact.

As for the automobile sales, which struggled, and steel demand were also lower.

As for the full year, there are some differences depending on the segments. As a whole, the second half impact is not as strong as the first half. So we keep the full year impact of JPY 60 billion unchanged.

Some of the concerns is the negative impact on the FamilyMart, which might linger. And also, the domestic apparel business might continue to suffer, to have higher inventories, and the order in the next year might stagnate. And also, the aircraft -- or airline business is affected. So the COVID-19 impact, about 70% is in Japan.

Now lastly, let me talk about each company and make some comments. Year-on-year comparisons are shown on Page 4 and also from Page 10 to Page 19. We have more details for each segment.

Starting with Textile, it was down by JPY 6.7 billion at JPY 8.4 billion. There are some loss-making companies. In addition to the lower expenses, receiving the subsidies in relation to the COVID-19 happened. But the sales of apparel-related business was very poor and overall transactions suffered. [ ITOCHU MODA PAO ] and Converse and [ ITS ] in Hong Kong were better than the forecast. But others, apparel companies, there are many well-known names, they are -- have been struggling.

Going to Machinery, the cars and aircraft/airlines, those businesses were damaged due to the COVID-19. So JPY 12.1 billion down, and the net profit was JPY 16.7 billion.

Car manufacturers' export declined. So the Machinery segment, we believe we are bearish. More recently, the Yanase was strong. In September, October, we saw some recovery. And the car trade, we start to see some moderate recovery, but this difficult environment continues for this fiscal year.

For the Metals & Minerals, the iron ore prices were strong. But in comparison to the year before, the major companies such as IMEA in Australia and Iron Ore Company (sic) [ Iron Ore Corporation ] in Brazil and the sales company in Brazil and Drummond and the -- a company in Colombia, they're all in negative. 62% is the achievement rate. And the iron ore price stays at the high level.

Now demand in China is strong, so this could be a driver. But gradually, this is likely to stabilize, and the production was expected to increase in Vale. So prices will come down. But it's possible that the prices stay at the high level. So we are bullish in this segment because of the iron ore prices.

Energy & Chemicals, the result was JPY 23.5 billion. That is up by JPY 1.4 billion. Probably this is the strongest segment. Energy compared to the year before, this is JPY 8 billion, down by JPY 23 billion. And the shipment in Azerbaijan increased. In comparison to the year before, the oil prices were lower. So that was the negative impact, but we gradually see the recovery.

The chemicals were very strong. Especially, China, Asia and Japan, the synthetic resin-related businesses were strong. The power and environmental solution division was established from this year to capture the stay-at-home demand. So energy trading contributed.

Now among the strong major group companies, IPC SINGAPORE and the synthetic resin trading company in Shanghai and also the Sanipak making the plastic packs, those were strong than the year before. In comparison to our forecast, energy-related companies exceeded their forecast. So we are bullish here.

Now turning to Food. So increase of JPY 4.2 billion. The result was JPY 23.8 billion. There was extraordinary gain due to the asset replacement. And also, the people stayed at home, and that led to the strong demand. HyLife and Prima Meat Packers, meat-related businesses, showed strength. But as for Dole, in comparison to the forecast, it's positive. But especially in the United States, the packaged food was strong since people stayed at home. But due to the cold weather, Asian fresh or -- banana and the pineapple in the Philippines, the production was weak. So it's lower than the year before, but it's higher than the forecast. So JPY 2.3 billion was the result for the first half, and we would reduce the cost reduction, and we believe that we can achieve the forecast of JPY 7.4 billion for the full year.

Next is General Products & Realty. The -- there was a major negative number, and you might think that this is concerning. But toward the end of the year, we are likely to achieve our yearly target. Now the JPY 27.7 billion, down at JPY 18.1 billion, that is the result.

Last year in North America, construction material, housing-related business, there was a partial sales of that. And as you know, the pulp market price declined. And despite the recent recovery, there were lockdowns. Etail business was affected by that. So that led to the negative performance. The strong companies include the housing material in North America because of the active do-it-yourself activities. And Master-Halco, Alta, those businesses were strong.

For the full year, the -- you might think -- you might say that we will not be able to achieve the target, but the sales or gain from the sales of Japan Business Paper & Pulp (sic) [ Japan Brazil Paper & Pulp ] will be included here. And then the construction material and the logistics business in North America is strong, so we are likely to achieve the forecast of JPY 60 billion.

Next is ICT & Financial Business. We are bullish in this segment. So we are positive on the full year forecast. JPY 37.1 billion was the actual results. It was up by JPY 5.1 billion. In Q1, there was a partial sale of the eGuarantee. That was a special factor. But ICT, there's no question that this is a growing area. CTC, Conexio and BELL, those major group companies are showing solid performance based on the strong demand; and also the insurance and financial business. In the retail business, we see a strong performance.

As for the future, ICT will have 5G and also digital transformation. There will be a new demand. And in the ICT -- or ICT is the key policy for the new Japanese administration. So there will be a lot of opportunities there.

In financial business and insurance, we see the development of the cashless payment and other payment methods, so there's a high expectation from this segment. So we expect that we'll be able to exceed our forecast.

The 8th Company, the FamilyMart daily business is down, and there was additional impairment loss. So this is the lower equity in earnings. But with the reversal of deferred tax liabilities, there was an increase of JPY 8.7 billion, and the net profit of JPY 30 billion was the result. And we are working on the delisting of the FamilyMart.

And including the COVID-19, there are still concerns for this segment. So in terms of achieving the forecast, we believe that this could be challenging.

Lastly -- last segment includes others. This includes CITIC and CP. So earnings in -- equity in earnings in the first half was JPY 34.7 billion for CITIC, and that was down by JPY 6.4 billion. There was a higher provision for the bad loan for CITIC as well as the negative resource business. Our full year forecast is JPY 62 billion, and the achievement rate was at 56%.

As for CP, the pork business in Vietnam was very strong. So that is JPY 7.4 billion.

In combination, CITIC and CP, the first half was about the same as the year before.

And that is the conclusion of my presentation. Thank you for your attention.

[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]