Tokyo Electron Ltd
TSE:8035
Earnings Call Analysis
Q2-2024 Analysis
Tokyo Electron Ltd
The company has witnessed a 9.2% increase in net sales to JPY 427.8 billion in the second quarter, primarily propelled by robust sales to China. The gross profit margin improved to 44.3%, driven by an advantageous product mix and the elevated sales figures. The company's focus on the Chinese market is evident, with a quarter-over-quarter rise in sales composition to China reaching 42.8%.
The second quarter revealed impressive operational efficiency with operating income climbing by 16.6% to JPY 96.1 billion, improving the operating margin to 22.5%. Net income attributable to the company's owners grew by 13.8%, amounting to JPY 73.1 billion, despite facing a decline on a year-over-year basis due to shifts in major customer investments.
The company commits to the future by raising its investment in R&D to a record JPY 205 billion, reflecting a dedication to innovation and growth. This strategic focus on R&D paves the way for advancements that contribute to long-term value creation.
The balance sheet displays total assets of JPY 2,191.7 billion, although cash and cash equivalents decreased due to share repurchases. Notably, the second quarter yielded a positive free cash flow of JPY 51.4 billion, underlining the company's liquidity and financial resilience.
With a compelling strategy for rewarding shareholders, the company elevated its interim dividend by JPY 20, forecasting a full-year dividend of JPY 340 per share. The total return amount for the fiscal year, inclusive of share repurchases and dividends, is anticipated to reach a high of JPY 277.7 billion.
Capitalizing on the positive results from the first half of the fiscal year, the company projects an upward revision to its full-year net sales by JPY 30 billion. Operating income is forecasted at JPY 401 billion with net income attributable to owners poised at JPY 307 billion.
The company envisions an uptrend in the wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) market, with the 2023 market size forecast revised upward to $85 billion to $90 billion. The growth trajectory is expected to bring the WFE market size to a record high by 2025, driven by demand from AI servers and leading-edge semiconductor technologies.
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Now it's time for us to start Tokyo Electron financial announcement of the second quarter of the fiscal year ending on March 31, 2024. Thank you very much for joining us today despite a very busy schedule. I am Yatsuda of IR Department, acting as a moderator of today's session. I'd like to now introduce today's attendees. Toshiki Kawai, Representative Director, President and CEO.
I am Kawai. Nice to meet you, everybody.
Next, Hiroshi Kawamoto, Senior Vice President and General Manager, in-charge of Finance Division.
I am Kawamoto.
Prior to the presentation, let me explain the flow of today's conference. First of all, Mr. Kawamoto and Mr. Kawai will make presentations. After that, until 6:30 Japan Time, we will have question-and-answer session where we take questions from the audience. This meeting uses 2 channels of WebEx for simultaneous interpretation between Japanese and English. As we explained in our e-mail, you are kindly requested to use apps on PCs and mobile terminals, if you plan to ask questions. But if you are not going to ask questions, then you can use telephones. In addition, since this conference is intended for institutional investors and analysts, we would appreciate your understanding that we receive questions only from institutional investors and analysts. We will post the audio contents of this conference in Japanese and English on our website within a couple of days. It would be appreciated if you could also visit our website. Now, Mr. Kawamoto will present the consolidated financial summary. Mr. Kawamoto, please?
So good afternoon. I am Kawamoto. I'd like to present the consolidated financial summary of the second quarter of financial year ended in March 2024. First of all, I'd like to present quarterly financial summary. Could you look at the figures within the blue box, please? In the second quarter, we generated net sales of JPY 427.8 billion, 9.2% increase from the previous quarter due to mainly to the increasing sales to China. Gross profit was JPY 189.7 billion, 16.9% increase from the previous quarter. And gross profit margin was 44.3%, raised by 2.9 percentage point because of the increased sales and product mix. Operating income was JPY 96.1 billion, 16.6% increase from the previous quarter. Operating margin was 22.5%, raised by 1.5 percentage points despite the increase of R&D expenses. Net income attributable to owners of parent was JPY 73.1 billion, 13.8% increase from the previous quarter. On the year-over-year basis shown on the right, due to the investment adjustment by the major customers, both net sales and profit showed a significant decline. R&D expenses were JPY 51.0 billion, increasing from the previous quarter and also on the year-over-year basis as we continue R&D investment for the future growth. Capital expenditures were JPY 17.6 billion, and depreciation and amortization was JPY 12.5 billion. This is a graphic representation of financial summary shown on the previous page, on the chronological basis for your information. This slide shows the financial summary on the half year basis. Far right column shows the first half financial estimate announced on August 10. The second from the right shows comparison with the second half of fiscal 2023. In the first half of this fiscal year, we achieved our plan that we announced on August 10 in every item compared with the second half of fiscal 2023, both sales and profit declined due to the investment adjustment by major customers. In the blue box, CapEx shown on the second from the bottom, shows a significant increase. This is due to the construction of a development building in Miyagi.
This shows net sales by region. As we switch to single segment disclosure from this fiscal year, we have presented composition of company-wide net sales by region. As for the net sales composition in the second quarter, following the first quarter, the proportion of sales to China rose to 42.8% due to active WFE investment to mature nodes in this region. As you can see here, this slide shows SPE new equipment sales by application.
In the second quarter, from the bottom of this chart, logic accounts for 67%, non-volatile memory accounted for 5% and DRAM accounted for 28%. Sales to DRAM customers and logic foundries showed a rise from the previous quarter also due to the active WFE investment by Chinese customers. This slide shows the Field Solutions sales. In the second quarter, sales amounted to JPY 104.4 billion, increasing by JPY 4.1 billion from the previous quarter, mainly driven by the increase of modifications. Next, this slide shows the balance sheet. Total assets were JPY 2,191.7 billion. Cash and cash equivalents were JPY 362.6 billion, decreasing by JPY 38.3 billion from the previous quarter, partly because of share repurchase that I will present later. Notes and accounts receivable, trade and contract assets was JPY 367.7 billion, inventories were JPY 748.5 billion, increasing by JPY 31.9 billion due to the strategic procurement prepared for future shipments. Full liabilities and net assets shown on the right-hand side. Liabilities were JPY 661.4 billion, increasing by JPY 21.4 billion, in part due to customer advances. Net assets were JPY 1,530.2 billion, decreasing by JPY 8.7 billion from the end of previous quarter due to share repurchase, we have continued as we delivered net income of JPY 73.1 billion in the second quarter. The equity ratio was 69.2%. Next, this slide shows the cash flow. In the second quarter, cash flow from operating activities was JPY 74.8 billion. The cash flow from investing activities were minus JPY 23.4 billion. Cash flow from financing activities was minus JPY 90.8 billion, primarily due to the share repurchase of JPY 90.2 billion. As a result, free cash flow was plus -- positive JPY 51.4 billion. Finally, I will present updates of share repurchase that we presented in the previous financial announcement. On September 30, 2023, we completed the share repurchase based on the resolution of the Board of Directors meeting held on May 11, 2023. Total number of shares purchased from June to the end of September 2023 amounted 5,899,200 shares, total cost of share repurchase was JPY 119.9 billion. This was all about the consolidated financial summary of the second quarter of fiscal year ending in March 2024.
Thank you very much. Now let's move on to business environment and financial estimate presentation given by Kawai-san. Mr. Kawai, please?
Once again, I am Kawai. Thank you very much for joining us despite a very busy schedule. Let me make a presentation regarding business environment and financial estimates. Let me start with the business environment. The full year forecast of WFE market size in 2023 was revised upward to $85 billion to $90 billion from our August forecast of $70 billion to $75 billion.
While investment in leading-edge logic foundry is delayed, Chinese customers are further accelerating their investment to mature nodes. Progress in delivery of some equipment such as exposure to deferred due to supply shortage from the previous fiscal year is also expected to have a positive effect to boost momentum of the market. Driven by those 2 trends, calendar 2023, WFE market is expected to go beyond the previous forecast. The full-fledged market recovery is slightly delayed from our previous forecast. But in calendar 2024 and 2025, WFE market is expected to grow to around $200 billion in total of those 2 years. One of the drivers is AI server, whose annual growth rate is 31%. The leading-edge CPU, DRAM and NAND as well as GPU for generative AI and HBM in which memory devices are stacked in a package will provide us with various business opportunities. In addition, AI will be mounted not only to servers but also PCs and smartphones. Also, there will be a demand to replace those products purchased during the COVID-19 crisis and businesses are actively investing in IT. These factors are expected to boost semiconductor demand. These factors after the tailwind and WFE market is expected to hit record high in size in 2025. So next, this shows business progress in the second quarter of fiscal year ending March 2024. Regarding financial performance, as Mr. Kawamoto presented earlier, net sales, profit and all other indices achieved the targeted plan. The cryogenic etching that we presented in the previous financial announcement and other innovative technology development for leading-edge processes and their valuation by the customers are all on track. In the advanced packaging field, which is growing significantly, we are receiving a lot of inquiries mainly for our bonders. To be prepared for sustained growth, we keep up and maintain active investment. In July, construction of our new development building in Yamanashi was completed, which aims to develop film deposition equipment, gas chemical etching equipment, patterning technologies and process integration. Also in nonfinancial areas, we have made great achievements. In June, all of our domestic sites achieved 100% renewal energy-based operations. In September, our Yamanashi site obtained the top rank of platinum status in audit conducted by RBA, which is the international organization promoting sustainability in the supply chain. In October, our targets for GHG emission reduction were recognized as science-based targets by the international initiative of SBTi after their successful validation. As [indiscernible] JPY 120 billion share repurchase program that we announced in May, we have completed the share acquisition by the end of September. Next, I will present the financial estimates for fiscal 2024. Reflecting the financial results in the first half of fiscal 2024, we have revised estimates for net sales upward by JPY 30 billion. We also plan to spend record high R&D expenses of JPY 205.0 billion, increased by JPY 5 billion. Accordingly, the full year financial estimates are expected to be JPY 1,730 billion for net sales, JPY 401 billion for operating income and JPY 307 billion for net income attributable to owners of parent. This slide shows SPE new equipment sales forecast in this fiscal year. As shown here, we generated sales of JPY 602.6 billion in the first half of this fiscal year. For the second half, sales forecast remains unchanged at JPY 690 billion, hitting the bottom in the first half of this fiscal year, SPE new equipment sales expected to be in transition up -- to upward trend.
Next, this shows our plan for R&D expenses and CapEx. In fiscal 2024, both R&D expenses and CapEx expected to hit the record high. As I said earlier, we are planning R&D expenses of JPY 205 billion. The plan for CapEx and depreciation remains unchanged, expecting to be JPY 124 billion and JPY 57 billion, respectively. To address expanding market and fulfill increasingly diversified leading-edge technology needs, we will continue active R&D and capital investment. This slide shows dividend forecast. Reflecting financial results in the first half of this fiscal year, the interim dividend is raised by JPY 20 and full year dividend per share is expected to be JPY 340. This shows total return amount over the past few years. Total return amount in this fiscal year, totaling the dividend per share and share repurchase that I presented earlier is expected to be JPY 277.7 billion, hitting a record high. Tokyo Electron will celebrate the 60th anniversary tomorrow, November 11, 2023. I would like to express my heartfelt gratitude to all the stakeholders for warm support over so many years. We are determined to strive hard to further enhance shareholders' value. This concludes my presentation. Thank you very much for your kind attention.
We will have a question-and-answer session until 6:30 Japan Time. [Operator Instructions] So first question is from Yoshida-san from CSLA (sic) CLSA Securities.
I am Yoshida from CLSA Securities. I have a question regarding Slide 14, WFE market 2024. The slight increase is [ expecting in 2024 ] foundry, DRAM, NAND. What sort of growth focus do you have by region? How do you view the China in 2024? In addition, '24 and '25, you said $200 billion in total. So if the $90 billion 2024, $110 billion in 2025, so increased $200 billion, what sort of application and regions that contribute to this drastic increase?
Let me answer to your question. First of all, for China proportion. In the future, China will account for about 40% in 2024. That's our view. So by device, by application that you asked about, at present, toward next fiscal year, little by little, the recovery is being observed for DRAM and logic will start recovering fast. That's our forecast. Actually, already, the recovery trend has started, especially for servers -- AI servers, I expect it to grow further more. But inventory is now being consumed right now. But next -- in the middle of next year and onward, you can see significant recovery expected. Towards 2025, you can see another big step in increase or growth in the market. WFE market itself is expected to grow slightly. But this fiscal year, what is unique, I mean, exposure tool, which is rather unique, is expected to grow drastically. So that's one of the drivers for the growth of the WFE market. This fiscal year, increased by about $15 billion. As for next year 2024, other than exposure to, you can see some recovery trend, so that will contribute our business performance as well. 2025, you said $110 billion. That's what you said in your question. Based on the calculation from $200 billion. As for your outlook, I don't have any big disagreement regarding that particular forecast. 40% for China, other regions accounts for 60%. Investment for leading-edge devices will recover. For memories and logic, the proportion between the 2 should be around logic for 65% and memory for 35%. For next fiscal year, the driver should be DRAM and logic. NAND, on the other hand, may take another year next year for adjustments. Did I answer to your question? I hope my answer covers all the items within your question.
Next question is from Mr. Nakamura from Goldman Sachs Japan.
I am Nakamura from Goldman Sachs. Page 14, WFE 2023, you haven't raised your forecast in 2023 slightly, but your sales does not increase that much. Probably second half of this year, your forecast remain unchanged. So there is some difference. And could you give me the reason why there is some difference between the WFE market trend and your sales forecast?
The inventory reduction is rather slow. On the other hand, China customers are increasing investment. So there are some adjustment over there, but market is in the trend of recovery. The first half of this fiscal year, you saw the figures compared with our guidance that we announced in early this year, we outperformed our guidance, but that includes some values coming, bringing forward from the second half of this year. And that was covered by the Chinese customers' investment. But by and large, we are in the transition towards upward trend. Another part of your question. Could you just explain the second part of your question?
I think you have covered the question. I have one follow-up question. Three months before and 6 months before compared with the past, inquiries from China might be increasing or orders from China should be increasing. That's what we expect. Does that contribute to the increase of your sales in the second half of this year?
Right, there is some possibility that contribute to the increase of our sales in the second half of the year.
So you are not losing your market share?
No, no. We do not lose the market share. There are some [ statistics ] issue each company. When you look at business performance, different companies, the overseas exposure vendors increased their sales a lot. So they failed to ship those exposure tools because of the supply shortage in the past, but they have started. We delivering those exposure tools. As far as the business is concerned, our share does not decrease at all. Excluding some special exceptional factors, there is no trend that our share is declined. I'm sure we can increase our share in the future. We are penetrating the market, and we do have very solid share in each process.
Next question is from Mr. Shibano from Citigroup Global Markets Japan.
I am Shibano from Citigroup Global Markets Japan. WFE market from '23 to '24, slightly increased. But '23, what you said earlier in your presentation, in particular, exposure tools, sales are increasing. So what about your SAM? S-A-M from year 2023 to '24 rather than a slight increase, but you can expect more than slight growth. Could you give me some qualitative comparison in SAM for 2024 compared with your previous financial announcement? Is there some recovery trend were getting worse than 3 months ago?
This time, we made a presentation about $15 billion upward revision for WFE market for calendar year 2023 compared with what we have announced in August in our financial announcement. As I said earlier, the exposure tools are the major driver of this upward division. Part of $15 billion in 2023 and also part of slight increase in 2024 will be contributing to our SAM. Therefore, next fiscal year, rather compared with this year, you can see the better market condition. Accordingly, our SAM is expected to grow further more.
Next question is Mr. Wadaki of Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.
I am Wadaki from Mitsubishi. I have a question regarding competition status. There are 2 products that I have some concern. One of them is cryogenic etching system. And you said you are increasing your share and you're promoting these products a lot, but are there anything that you can explain from your own standpoint?
And another concern is the cleaning system in China. Actually, you are increasing your share, but Chinese customers respect the past record. Therefore, [ screen ] might be catching up with you. So could you give us some comments on those 2 issues, please?
As for the cryogenic etching, the strength of this technology is to complete etching of the depth of 10 micron within 33 minutes. So this features high etch rate. Another strength is this doesn't use CS gas, but we can reduce global warming potential by 84% compared with conventional technology. Therefore, this is an environmentally friendly technology. We obtained the development POR for some customers, and those customers have started evaluation preferentially. So for this area, it's rather smooth in progress for the cryogenic etching system promotion. In reality, 400 layers should be the major target application. When you think about that, the drastic investment period timing, we can expect a lot in calendar 2025. There are some possibility of early adoption of this cryogenic etching for the etching depth of 7 to 9 micrometers. So we are now working on the evaluation together with our customers for our cryogenic etching. That is the really remarkable outstanding technology and some characteristics have been already confirmed. So competition landscape will continue on the fare basis. According to our analysis, we do have the high advantage in our product of this cryogenic etching. So that's -- in that sense, etching is a big market for us. And in order for us to further improve our share in the market. Not now, but next year or year after next year, we can expect a lot by promoting this new technology. As for the cleaning system that you asked about, you can see growing trend. And our competitors are providing very good cleaning systems as well. But we have established certain performance in our cleaning system in terms of technology, so we can have a fair competition with our competitors. And as a result, I hope we can increase our share. I'm sorry, I cannot give you any specific share values, but we have a lot of expectation for the future.
Next question is from Mr. Shimamoto of Okasan Securities.
I am Shimamoto from Okasan Securities. So I have one question regarding China investment, which is strong, and I want to see continuity of the investment in China. You have revised your forecast upward. What sort of applications are major contributors and what -- or do you see increasing new customers? Could you just give us more explanation with high granularity about Chinese market situation?
From the viewpoint of the WFE, the exposure tools, sales are increasing. Next, etching system, CVD system, cleaning and drying systems, all those areas show the good significant increase. The number of customers in China, now we can see the new names in the market of China. And you can see drastic increase of new customers, roughly speaking, 20 to 30. New customers are now getting into this market. So major market, so Magic Market that we named it that these are the major applications area. As for the future of the market in China, the Chinese customers are quite a few in number. Several dozens of customers are there in China. In that sense, also in the future, the market is expected to grow a lot in China. As for the continuity of the China market growth, its domestic self sufficiency is rather low yet. Therefore, the China market growth is expected to continue in the future. At the same time, there is the export control by American government on China. But as a company, we don't have any comment, but the inference is not zero. Therefore, we need to closely look at the situation of American government export control in China.
Next question is from Mr. Hirakawa from BofA Securities.
I am Hirakawa from BofA. I'm sorry, I have a very persistent question regarding demand from China, I want to ask additional questions. 2024 and '25, the strong demand expected to continue. Have you -- any talks regarding 2025 already started? If yes, for 2024 and '25, are there any difference in Chinese demand between the 2 years? China are investing very actively for the mature node for DRAM for 2025. What sort of expectation do you have for the 2025 Chinese market in details, please?
For 2024, the inquiries are now coming to our company. In that sense, we can expect, to some extent, about 40% should be the level, especially for the first half of next fiscal year, we can expect to receive almost the same level of inquiries. I'm not saying the WFE market is growing not because of China market, but AI server, CAGR 31%. So inventory adjustments are completed, so WFE market, including DRAM, logic and NAND in 2025, all those things expected to grow. That's the major driver of WFE market growth and also replacing demand for PC, smartphone and/or device AI. So PCs and smartphone new functions using AI will be mounted, so more and more PCs and smartphones are to be sourced because of the confusion of those WFE market is expected to grow drastically in 2025. So it's not because of the increase in China market in 2025 solely. As for China, Magic Market is expected to grow drastically. The Magic Market on all basis, WFE is about JPY 30 billion for this fiscal year. So 2030, that is expected to grow JPY 50 billion or beyond.
So Magic Market is expected to be doubled in size. And now China customers accounts for huge portion within that Magic Market. And as I said earlier, the domestic self-efficiency is expected to be increasing. When you think about that trend, we cannot see so many negative factors for our business performance.
Next question is from Mr. Yoshioka from Nomura Securities.
I am Yoshioka from Nomura Securities. My question might be a little bit the same as other questions. I have a question regarding your sales by equipment. It's been 9 months in fiscal 2023. So you have just completed the first half of this fiscal year. And looking back the first hour, by equipment, are there any increase or decrease of the shares? Are there any good performing tools and another concern I have is the exposure tools, sales is rather strong. So how about your coater/developer sales? Have you seen drastic increase of your sales of coater/developer? Could you give us some information regarding the changes in the sales by product?
So for this fiscal year, this fiscal year kind of adjustment year, therefore, customer mix, product mix, there are quite a few factors to be considered. We are very happy to achieve the plan in every aspect. I mean those circumstances, the growth of coater/developer sales was higher than our original guidance. As we mentioned earlier, so that was a very good result. We executed very well in sales of coater/developer.
Another unique thing is the bonders for HBM. Now we are receiving orders for high-volume production lines, and that order has been accelerated. Other than that, the etching for [indiscernible] logic customers for back-end patterning, we have obtained PORs. This is the overall picture. Did I answer to your question properly?
I have one follow-up question. So year 2024, do you think the equipment or the exposure tool will be expanding? So I think your coater/developer sales is accelerated, thanks to the exposure tools sales increase. But are there any potential risks for year 2024?
No, there is not so much risk.
Next question is from Mr. Ishino of Tokai Tokyo Research Center.
As Mr. Kawai said now, I have a question regarding bonders for HBM. So the generative AI requires the HBM, HBM demand increases further more and you have rather dominant products. So quite a few customers are now waiting in line to purchase your system. So your capacity might not able to meet the demands. And I got some information, customers are now frustrated because they cannot purchase. So what is the capacity right now for the bonders for HBM and what is your plan for next fiscal year?
So all of sudden, quite a few inquiries are coming, in particular, from Korea market, and in the beginning, it was rather hard. But we try to enhance our responsiveness to the customers and our factories are working very hard. Thanks to the cooperation from our suppliers. So our capacity has been increased by several times successfully. Therefore, the shortage of our products is not the issue to meet or fulfill the demands for HBM. We are prepared and we are capable.
So is that correct, if I understand your business model of JPY 10 billion in 6 months been increased by several times?
No. So 3 months ago, in August, the financial announcement at that time already in August this year, against the demand, we were able to deliver our products to meet the inquiries. We have established that method already. Therefore, there is no big change in that area. So we have addressed the demand. It doesn't mean JPY 10 billion is increased by several times, not this year, but about next year. So yes, we can see some increase. WFE for server is about $9.3 billion. Out of that, $2.4 billion for AI servers. Next year 2024, the server is about $15 billion. Out of that, AI server is about $6 billion. In 2025, the server total is about $20 billion and AI servers are expected to be more than $8.2 billion. So this is how we view the growth of the market. WFE for server is increasing. And at the same time, this AI server WFE is also increasing. So HBM, proportionally, increasing, and we can provide bonder bonding tool, and we expect a lot for the increase of sales of our bonding tools.
Next question is from Mr. Hanaya from SMBC Nikko Securities.
I am Hanaya from SMBC. I have one question. Regarding the WFE market in CY 2023, do you expect your SPE new equipment outperform the market? Or because the legacy for China is rather strong and exposure to sales are rather big. Do you think you are underperforming, but next year, because of the growth of the leading-edge devices, can you think you cannot perform the market next year? Last year, if my memory serves correctly, you said you are going to outperform the market with the new equipment sales. That's the reason why I'm asking this question.
So rather than me myself, I think you know better. So for exposure tools, the vendor was not able to ship exposure tool, but now they have restarted the delivery of the exposure tool and beat China market. There are some inquiries, although the export control is applied. So now $15 billion upward revision is not part of our SAM. We are using yen basis business. So the yen depreciation has some impact from the viewpoint of the share. Those 2 factors do not have positive impacts. However, having said that, our process share is steadily increasing by obtaining a winning process of records. So when demand recovers, and some shift from the year will be eliminated because of the shortage of supply. Then in that sense, we are able -- we are able to obtain our positions security next fiscal year and after next year, our share is expected to grow. And this is how we view the market trend. We can increase our share in 2 years to come.
Next question is from Mr. Nakanomyo from Jefferies Japan Limited.
Whether the HBM, I have a question regarding generative AI as a whole. Probably 10 billion is related to the bonder and debonder for HBM. But when you look at generative AI as a whole, how much contribution do you see for TEL for this year, in terms of business change or 2 years to come in the future? How much business opportunity can you enjoy this year and next year, thanks to the generative AI. You talked about WFE for AI server out of total AI servers. I think it's a bit difficult to calculate them precisely. But for rather than bonder and debonder, do you see increasing business opportunities from the generative AI?
I think there are quite a few business opportunities we can see. When you look at our product portfolio very closely, there are quite a few opportunities lying there. New products are being developed. At present, we try to maximize the opportunities, and we are now working on the strategy, and we are going to present new strategies when it is finalized.
Next question is from Mr. Yasui of UBS Securities.
I am Yasui from UBS Securities. I'm sorry, again. I have a question regarding demand from China. Is it that sustainable? I have two major questions. So only for the power semiconductors, China market accounts for the 50% of the global market. When you think about capacity, whether the China market is sustainable? When you think about WFE market, $100 billion to $120 billion, and China markets accounts for 40% in total.
How do you see the risks of the excessive supply? Another issue is the export controls imposed by the American government. I think top management may have some contact with the government. How do you see the risks of export control? Or do you think there is no problem of the export control because target market in China is 28-nanometer node or older technology node. You may not have any idea. Could you give us some comments on that regard, please?
So in our conversation, we talked about this year 2024 and 2025 in terms of WFE market. So when you look short term, midterm and long term, we need to first look at not only short term but also longer-term market forecast. So digitalization trend is one thing. And also CO2 emission reduction trend is another thing we need to look at.
We need to look at those two things, digitalization and global environment. We should look at the entire picture by looking at those two factors. Data traffic is growing with CAGR about 25% to 26%. And AI is also -- has a lot to do. So semiconductor device market was about $570 billion. But in 2030, the market is about $1 trillion. Capital intensity is [indiscernible]. If that is maintained, the SPE market, another new market is to be created by year 2030. So data traffic increase and new applications emerging from the market. So as long as those 2 things are increasing, we got best of the geography, that demand should be fulfilled by some of the players regardless of the geography. The Chinese market, when you look at the Chinese market, so geopolitical issues need to be closely watched. However, if there are some problems there, I think we need to cover them in other areas. So for a longer period of time, sustainable growth is expected in the Chinese market. For shorter perspective, as a company, we cannot say anything decisive, so we must closely look at the trend in short term.
Next question is from Mr. Sugiura of Daiwa Securities.
I am Sugiura from Daiwa Securities. I have a question regarding profitability. So first half of this year, gross margin. The gross margin in the second half of this year is expected to be better. Could you give me the reasons why you can see the better gross margin? And also now yen depreciation is going on rapidly. Some suppliers are now having increasing cost for procurement. So based on such factors, from the suppliers, are there any request to increase price from some of the suppliers? If yes, do you have any cost pressure because of the increase of the cost of the supply goods?
So Kawamoto-san will answer to your question.
Thank you very much for your question. I am Kawamoto. As for the gross profit margin is expected to high in the second half of this year. That's your question. If we compare first half and second half of this fiscal year, sales are a little bit high in the second half of this year. We do have very good profit margin compared with initial guidance in the first half of this year because we are providing high value-added products and we can sell up with high average price. Of course, there is an issue of product mix. So based on that result, we can come up with the forecast for the second half of this year. This is how we set the gross profit margin for the second half of this year. Second question. So inflation among the suppliers, we'll request to raise price from the suppliers. When you look at the current situation, there are some possibilities that supplier may ask to increase their price, but there is no certain increase in the price of the supplies. The price increase will be within our expectation. We do have costing strategy, and we want to increase our gross margin in the future as well.
And also regarding procurement costs, the supply chain is very important for us. So we should listen to the voice of suppliers closely, and we respect the suppliers positions. On the other hand, technology innovation is rather rapid in our industry. So maybe once every 18 months, customer ask us to provide new value for 3 generations and 4 generations ahead. So for a new model, [indiscernible] optimum pricing to reflect the value of the new product. At the same time, within the supply chain, we try to listen to the voice of suppliers so that we can have the healthy business with our suppliers by applying the appropriate price of cost.
So since there seems to be no more questions, we'd like to conclude the financial announcement. Lastly, we'd like to continually improve our IR activities based on your precious feedbacks. So we would appreciate your kind cooperation in filling out the questionnaire before you exit at WebEx. Thank you very much for taking time to join this conference despite your busy schedule today. Thank you very much. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]