Tokyo Electron Ltd
TSE:8035
Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2024 Analysis
Tokyo Electron Ltd
The company has revised its environmental goals, aiming for a 35% reduction in CO2 equivalent emissions per wafer by fiscal 2021. This demonstrates a strong commitment to sustainability, which is increasingly important to investors who are mindful of environmental impacts. Financially, the company expects a robust recovery with an upward revision of the net sales estimate by JPY 100 billion to JPY 1,830 billion for the fiscal year 2024, indicating confidence in its market prospects.
Investors will be pleased with the commitment to return value through dividends and share repurchases. The forecast for the year-end dividend is an attractive JPY 219 million, up from an interim dividend per share of JPY 148. Additionally, the record-high total return amount for the fiscal year, including share repurchase, is projected to be JPY 290.2 billion.
The semiconductor device market is forecasted to reach $1 trillion by 2030, representing significant growth potential. The company plans to invest JPY 1.5 trillion in R&D and JPY 700 billion in CapEx over the next five years to capture this opportunity. The focus will be on digitalization and decarbonization, vital trends that drive demand for semiconductor devices.
An ambitious plan to hire 10,000 new employees over five years is in place, aiming to support industry leadership and growth. The company plans to balance this with an emphasis on global, generational, and gender diversity (3Gs). Despite concerns about fixed cost increases, the expectation is that sales will double by 2030, improving per capita and per employee profits. This human resource expansion aligns with the projected rapid market expansion and need for ongoing innovation.
The company has realized record high gross profit margins thanks to a strategy focused on high-value products. For investors, this is a positive sign that the company is effectively managing its product mix to enhance profitability. Looking ahead, despite some expected temporary margin decrease due to strategic expenses, the overall trajectory appears to be one of continued margin growth and cost optimization.
The company anticipates a growth in memory and logic investment, with revenue trends indicating sequencial growth. This is contrasted with peers predicting a decline, suggesting competitive strength. Moreover, the second half of the next fiscal year and beyond are expected to see a more substantial expansion in market size, reflecting optimism for sustained growth in the industry.
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Now it's time for us to start Tokyo Electron financial announcement for the third quarter of fiscal year ending on March 31, 2024. Thank you very much for joining us today despite your busy schedule. I am Yatsuda of IR department, acting as a moderator of today's session. Now I'd like to introduce today's attendees. Mr. Toshiki Kawai, Representative Director, President and CEO.
I am Kawai. Thank you for joining us.
Next, Mr. Hiroshi Kawamoto, Senior Vice President and General Manager in charge of Finance Division.
I am Kawamoto.
Prior to the presentations, let me explain the flow of today's conference. First of all, Mr. Kawamoto and Mr. Kawai will make presentations. After that, until 6:30 Japan time, we'll have a question-and-answer session, where we take questions from the audience. This meeting uses 2 channels of WebEx for the simultaneous interpretation between Japanese and English. As we explained in our e-mail, you are kindly requested to use apps on PCs or mobile terminals, if you plan to ask questions. But if you are not going to ask questions, you can use telephones. Since this conference is intended for institutional investors and analysts, we would appreciate your understanding that we receive questions only from institutional investors and analysts as usual. We will post the audio contents of this conference in Japanese and English on our website within a couple of days. It would be appreciated if you could also visit our website. Now Mr. Kawamoto will present the consolidated financial summary.
Good afternoon. I'm Kawamoto, Finance Unit. I would like to present this consolidated financial summary of the third quarter of fiscal year ending in March 2024. First of all, I would like to present quarterly financial summary. I will mainly refer to the figures in the blue box. In the third quarter, we generated net sales of JPY 463.6 billion, 8.4% increase from the previous quarter, mainly due to the increase in sales to China. Gross profit was JPY 222.1 billion, 17.1% increase from the previous quarter and gross profit margin was 47.9%, raised by 3.6 percentage points because of growing proportion of high value-added products. The operating income was JPY 132.4 billion, 37.8% increase from the previous quarter. Operating margin was 28.6%, raised by 6.1 percentage points due to the increase of gross profit margin and decline of SG&A to sales ratio. Net income attributable owners of parent was JPY 101.5 billion, 38.7% increase from the previous quarter. For the year-over-year difference is shown on the right most column, though net sales declined by 0.9%. Both gross profit and operating income increased, thanks to the improved product mix, as I said earlier. R&D expenses were JPY 49.7 billion as we continue R&D investment for the future growth. Capital expenditures were JPY 31.8 billion due to the construction of development building in [indiscernible], among others, while depreciation amortization was JPY 13.8 billion. So this is a graphic representation of the financial summary shown on the previous page on the chronological order, just for your information. This slide shows net sales by region. As we switched to a single segment disclosure from this fiscal year, here is the composition of company-wide sales by region. As for the net sales composition in the third quarter, following the second quarter, the proportion of sales to China rose to as high as 46.9%, due to active WFE investment to mature loans in this region. This shows SPE new equipment sales by application. In the third quarter, from the bottom of this chart, sales to non-memory customers accounts for 65% non-volatile memory accounts for 4% and DRAM accounts for 31%. Sales to DRAM customers and non-memory customers showed the rise from the previous quarter due to active WFE investment by Chinese customers as was in the second quarter. This slide shows the Field Solutions sales. In the third quarter, sales were JPY 104.4 billion, remaining unchanged from the second quarter as part sales recovered, though modification sales were sluggish. This slide shows the balance sheet. Total assets were JPY 2,217.4 trillion, cash and cash equivalents were JPY 352.4 billion. Notes and accounts receivable, trade and contract assets were JPY 335.0 billion. Inventories were JPY 778.0 billion, increasing by JPY 29.4 billion due to procurement prepared for future market recovery. Investment and other assets amounted to JPY 332.1 billion, growing by JPY 23.5 billion from the previous quarter. Next, for the liabilities net sales shown on the right-hand side, liabilities were JPY 639.7 billion, decreasing by JPY 21.6 billion. The net assets were JPY 1,577.6 trillion, increasing by JPY 47.3 billion from the previous quarter due to net income of JPY 101.5 billion and dividend payment. Equity ratio was 70.5%. This slide shows the cash flow. In the third quarter, cash flow from operating activities was JPY 95.0 billion. The cash flow from investing activity was minus JPY 34.4 billion. Cash flow from financing activities was minus JPY 69.3 billion, primarily due to dividend payment. As a result, the free cash flow was JPY 60.6 billion. So this was all about the consolidated financial summary of the third quarter of this fiscal year. Thank you very much.
So next, Mr. Kawai will report business environment and financial estimates. Mr. Kawai, please?
I am Kawai. I will report business environment and financial estimates. Let me start with the business environment. The full year forecast of WFE market size in calendar 2023 is around $95 billion, though our focus at the previous financial announcement was $85 billion to $90 billion. We have revised the forecast upward as the customers in China pull their investment forward. The full year forecast of WFE market size in calendar 2024 is $100 billion comparable to the record high level in 2022. We expect that Chinese customer will continue their investment. And from the second half of the year, investment for the leading-edge DRAM is expected to recover calendar 2025, following the recovery of investment for DRAM in 2024, we expect WFE spending for NAND and leading-edge logic foundries will also show a full-fledged recovery. The recovery will be driven by AI server, which will grow at CAGR of 31%, AI server will provide broad business opportunities, including leading-edge CPU, DRAM and NAND as well as GPU for generative AI and HBM, in which memory devices are stuck in package. In addition, AI will be mounted not only to servers but also to PCs and smartphones. We can also accept the demand to replace those products purchased during COVID-19 prices and business is active in their IT investment. All these factors are expected to boost semiconductor demand, therefore, to visit growth is expected in calendar 2025 WFE market. This shows business progress in the third quarter of fiscal year ending in March 2024. Regarding financial performance, as Mr. Kawamoto presented earlier, both net sales and profit proceeded according to the plan. Penetration of our strategic products and development and evaluation activities for future growth are proceeding steadily as per the midterm management plan. As an example, we are making good progress in winning PORs in high etching system for DRAM, silicon etching system and backside bevel cleaning system for advanced logic devices. Evaluation of cryogenic etching technology that I introduced previously is proceeding smoothly toward this introduction. The high-volume manufacturing orders for wafer bonder and the bonder for HB and installed in high volume. Manufacturing lines showed sharp increase. Inquiries have more than doubled from our expectation 6 months ago. In SEMICON Japan December 2023, we released new products, new technologies and new environmental goal. The first one is Laser lift-off technology. In the 3D packaging to further improve semiconductor performance, the Laser lift-off technology is used during the wafer thinning process to separate permanently bonded 2 silicon wafers by laser into upper silicon wafer and the other wafer with integrated circuit publicated and transferred. This is an innovative technology, which can simplify conventional process flow and drastically reduce the environmental impact. The ionized water consumption, for example, is reduced by more than 90%. The second is Ulucus G. Leveraging our propriety technology Ulucus G achieved ultra-flat wafers essential for leading-edge devices, which are processed for EUV and high-density 3D packaging. With these new technologies, we will promote semiconductor technology innovation and drive WFE market growth. As for environment, we have put forward to the target year of net zero achievement by 10 years to 2040. Accordingly, we have revised the environmental goal for our products. The new goal is 35% reduction of CO2 equivalent emissions per wafer from fiscal 2021. We will strive for conservation of global environment and actively be net zero achievement efforts. Next, I will present the financial estimates for fiscal 2024. Reflecting the financial results in the third quarter and current circumstances, we have revised the estimate for net sales upward by JPY 100 billion. Full year financial estimates of JPY 1,830 billion for net sales, JPY 817 billion for gross profit, JPY 445 billion for operating income and JPY 340 billion for net income attributable to owners of parent. Net sales in the second half of this fiscal year, I expect it to be recovered to exceed JPY 1 trillion. This slide shows SPE new equipment sales forecast in the fourth quarter. As shown here, SPE new equipment sales are recovering after bottoming out in the first quarter. This shows our plan for R&D expenses and CapEx. There have been no changes. In fiscal 2024, we expect R&D expenses of JPY 205 billion, CapEx of JPY 124 billion and depreciation of JPY 57 billion, all of which are expected to keep the record high. To realize both digitalization and decarbonization for global environmental conservation, semiconductor devices become more and more important and have more applications. By year 2030, the semiconductor device market is expected to reach $1 trillion in size, as you can see over here. In order to maximize our growth potential under such circumstances, we are planning R&D expenses of JPY 1.5 trillion and CapEx of JPY 700 billion in the coming 5 years. We consider it is people that drive company growth and our employees are source for value creation. Based on this belief, we plan to hire 2,000 people every year to hire 10,000 people in total in 5 years' time. This slide shows the dividend forecast. Interim dividend per share was JPY 148. And based on the upward revision of financial estimate, the year-end dividend is expected to be JPY 219 million. This is my last slide showing the total return amount over the past few years. The total return amount in this fiscal year totaling the dividend per share that I presented earlier and share repurchase is expected to be JPY 290.2 billion, hitting a record high. Thank you very much. This concludes my presentation.
[Operator Instructions] So first question is from Mr. Yoshida of CLSA Securities.
I am Yoshida from CLSA Securities Japan. Slide 12, you showed us WFE market forecast. So 2024 and '25, if possible, could you show me some breakdown by application logic/foundry and DRAM, which is when you get the growth rate, what sort of focus do you have for 2024 and '25. I'm also interested in the growth rate in China.
Slide 12, please. Thank you very much for your question. I am Kawai. Let me answer to your question. Proportion of each application for 2024; memory, about 30%, for logic is about 60% and remaining 10% is for factory automation, wafer-level packaging. So these are the rough proportions. So what about the growth rate rather than proportion for DRAM, NAND, logic/foundry, I want to see the growth rate by application for '24 and '25. For year 2024, and 2025 -- but 30% to 40% for DRAM is expected to grow and the leading-edge NAND for this year, NAND is still in adjustment, so NAND almost remained flat for this year. In 2025, as I said in my presentation. So now we have more PCs and smartphone demand. And also after the adjustment of inventory, year 2025, you can see double investment for NAND. For 2024, leading-edge logic is expected to grow slightly. So AI server is a driver. But still, for customer, utilization rate do have some room. So I think the full fledged investment will start next year. For this year, China should account for about 40% in 2024. So slight decline from the previous year, but China accounts for about 40%. For 2025, China is expected to further increase their self-sufficiency ratio, is about 20%. That is the level of self-sufficiency ratio. Therefore, very similar investment plan will be adopted by Chinese customers in 2025. On the other hand, when you look at the U.S.-China trade conflict, we must be closely watched what happens to the China trade conflict. For logic and foundry towards 2025 for fledged, capital investment will start how much growth rate do you expect for logic/foundry 2-digit growth is expected.
Next question is from Mr. Wadaki of Morgan Stanley MUFG Research Japan.
I have a question regarding WFE market forecast 2024 hit the peak, that's what Kawai-san said earlier. And for the future, you gave us very positive forecast, which is really good. But when it comes to the fiscal 2024 and when you focus on your TAM, how much growth rate is expected? So you make a presentation in the New Year party for SEAJ 2024, plus 27%. That's what you said. So Tokyo Electron new equipment is expected very similar percentage, I think. What do you think about that?
So the detailed report will be given in the next meeting of the financial announcement, and there is a difference between calendar year and fiscal year, as you know. So compared with the growth rate in calendar year basis, growth rate on the fiscal year basis, which should include the investment for year 2025. Therefore, so more stronger growth rate is expected based on fiscal year and WFE. So the American and European manufacturers are delivering tools ahead of others for exposure system, for example, an ion implant inflation system and silicon epitaxial growth system. So quite a few tools for those areas were delivered by Western manufacturers. And Japanese vendors demand will be promoted because of those. So SEAJ party reception, I made a presentation, and that comment remain unchanged. Continually, we can see the growth trend in WFE market. So now we have 80 billion transistors amounted, and that will be increased to 140 billion transistors. And also technology node will shift from 3-nanometer to 2-nanometer node. So within the 5 years, all those growth is expected for the AI. So we can expect very strong growth potential.
Next question is from Mr. Nakamura of Goldman Sachs Japan.
So I have a question regarding gross profit margin. The third quarter, based on the quarterly basis, you hit the record high gross profit margin. The figure was very good. So now you can see the upward revision. What is the reason for that? And I think second -- fourth quarter, the sales are expected to grow, but gross profit margin is expected to decline slightly. So could you just give me the probability? And also, I want to know your prospect for the gross profit margin for the next fiscal year?
First of all, so for this fiscal year, the gross profit margin. Let me just explain a little bit more for the third quarter. The record high gross profit margin, very high level of gross profit margin was achieved in the third quarter. This is because of our high-value added products. The proportion of the high profit margin product increased in the third quarter. We can see the very similar high level of gross profit margin in the fourth quarter, but none can see some temporary expenses. For example, some of the discard of the inventory and also the R&D expenses and cost of goods. So some of the temporary strategic things are incorporated. That is the reason why slight decline is expected in the fourth quarter for the gross profit margin. That is our prospect for this fiscal year.
This is Kawai. Let me add some more comments. In principle, high value-added products are supposed to be created continuously by our company. So this is how we try to pursue the high level of the profit margin. So we expect we can see increasing trend of the gross profit margin. And we need to work for that. Fortunately, in the third quarter, we won the POR steadily. Because of that, I think the gross profit margin can be increased continuously in the future.
You mentioned the temporary factor in the fourth quarter. So how much temporary factor is expected in the fourth quarter? Could you share your idea with us, please?
So the third quarter to fourth quarter, so gross profit margin has declined a little bit from third to fourth quarter. So that reflects the temporary factor, above JPY 500 billion for [indiscernible]. So that's about JPY 115 billion or JPY 120 billion. Let me refrain from making specific comments. So this is the correct interpretation of what I have said so far.
Next question is from Mr. Hirakawa of BofA Securities.
I have a question regarding logic/foundry for the investment for mature node is really active. So in this fiscal year, what is the proportion of the mature node in logic/foundry? And what is your prospect for next fiscal year in terms of the proportion of the mature node?
So '24 and fiscal 2025 in both fiscal years, the mature node accounts for about 40%, including IoT, power semiconductors for automotive. So about 40% are from the mature node. I think this is how we can view the proportion in the market. So next fiscal year, the leading-edge memory area and leading-edge logic area will increase. Therefore, market size will not shrink, but proportion of mature node may decline a little bit because the increase in proportion for leading-edge devices compared with this fiscal year.
Let me just get some clarification. For mature node, accounts for about 40%. So that's based on your company's fiscal year, this fiscal year and next fiscal year. So WFE in 2025, the amount -- the number doesn't decrease but proportion -- the mature node will decline. I just talk about the worldwide basis, calendar year basis as well. So this is not specific to our company. I don't think there is a huge difference between worldwide figure and our own figure. As you said, about 40% from legacy or mature node, including China and other regions. In total, the mature node accounts for about 40% for next year, as you said, that doesn't decline drastically, but the investment for the leading-edge devices will increase next year. Accordingly, the proportion of mature node decline. So you said the 40% for the mature node for 2023 and '24.
No, this 40% for fiscal 2024 and slight decline in fiscal 2025, but the total absolute value doesn't change so much.
Next question is from Mr. Yoshioka of Nomura Securities.
I am Yoshioka from Nomura Securities. My question is regarding the gross profit margin again. So third -- fourth quarter, about 48%. So that's a high level. For gross profit margin, and we said proportion of the high value-added product is a driver to raise gross profit margin. But you said the China sales accounts for higher proportion so we shouldn't include or reflect the impact of China market. Could you show me some background? And how do you view next fiscal year? As for the fourth quarter, you said there are some temporary factors, I understood. But for next fiscal year, I don't think the factor will remain. Therefore, can you also achieve the 48%, while very close to that level of gross profit margin? Is my understanding correct?
So our midterm management plan, we set the financial model. And what is important for us is to the high value-added products and service provision and high value-added products and services, of course, we need to work on the one and only equipment for the leading edge products, devices and also for new models, we should reduce cost and improve value added. The profit margin for each product has been improving. Therefore, as I said earlier, there are some strategic factor, includes the R&D expenses and cost of goods. But by and large, the profit margin is expected to grow to improve continuously in the future. So certain timing in principle, we can achieve a high level of gross profit margin just like now the third quarter. It's possible for us to aim at the high level of gross profit margin.
Let me get the clarification for China. China factors do not have so much impact. Is that correct understanding?
For each individual issue, let me refrain from making some specific comments. But to some extent, R&D -- we can have some business, which do not have so much need for the R&D investment and profit margin is not so bad for the China market as well.
Next question is from Mr. Shimamoto of Okasan Securities.
I am Shimamoto. I have a question regarding DRAM. HBM is a driver. That's what you said. And in DRAM, '24 -- and '24, you said 30% to 40% after that, what is the contribution of the HBM? Do you have any figures for the contribution of HBM?
The HBM. So now you can see some figures for bonding, which is rather significant. In that area, very high level. We received inquiries about 2x more than expected. I looked at big ASP. When big ASP increases, that will contribute to WFE market growth. So when you look at the recent trends in the second half of this year, leading-edge DRAM demand will be increasing from autumn this year onward. So memories are improving, not just because of HBM, but leading-edge DRAM is also expected to grow.
So I have one follow-up question for bonding. I'm sure the bonding is affected. But what about the front end of the process? How do you view the impact of HBM on front and big ASP increases? So there is some positive contribution to front. And when it comes to the refer throughput, could you share some idea or some tips with me, please?
This is IR department -- answer to your question for bonding assembly or back end, so we have the dedicated system for HBM. But when it comes to front end, so HBM and DRAM, the same process used for HBM and DRAM. Therefore, it is the customer who allocate the process for front end to HBM and DRAM. So proportion between the HBM and DRAM just up to the customer. So we cannot tell exactly, but all we can say is overall big growth so when it comes to composition, we are not able to give you some specific answer.
Next question is from Mr. Shibano of Citigroup Global Markets Japan.
I'm Shibano from Citigroup. So Page 19, '25 to '29, 5 years, the investment plan was announced in your presentation. So 2 years ago, if my memory serves correctly, R&D, you said JPY 1 trillion for 5 years from 2 years ago. And now you have '25 to '29 to JPY 1.5 trillion and also the CapEx up until 2 years ago, you said about JPY 50 billion per year for many years, but now you have JPY 700 billion for 5 years to come. So this is more than the previous -- as for workforce, I think you have 17,000 to 18,000 headcount. As for the background. When you think about the market trend forecast -- background. I think the operations are focusing here in Japan. But when it comes to CapEx, are you going to promote R&D or manufacturing outside of Japan as well. If possible, could you just give us the background of those 3 years in your strategy.
I am Kawai, let me answer to your question. So R&D. For R&D, fortunately, the new products and served available market, some has been increasing, growing. So now we are using customers structured wafer for the valuation. In that sense, in our factories, we promote R&D. For that purpose, we invest for R&D and also next door concept. We tried to close to the customer. And by using customers structure wafer to tune the process conditions or recipes. So there are 2 types of R&D, R&D done in our own factories and R&D conducted very close to the customer. Accordingly, we have some facilities, buildings necessary for those purposes. So in our midterm management plan and ahead of that, we are now looking ahead of our midterm management plan. And this is the level of the R&D investment, and we calculate those figures based on very specific figures. Based on the very specific plan we calculated these figures.
Next question is from Mr. Thong from Macquarie Capital Securities.
Could you give us more information about the development of cryogenic etching 400 layers month is application. But what about 300 layers? Are there any possibilities that this technology will be applied to 300 layers. When are you going to recognize the sales?
So now towards the evaluation of this technology is going on for 10-micron and 400 layers or more. That is the major target in our evaluation for the installation in the high-volume and factoring lines. So 400 layers, when the technology shift to the high-volume production fleet, it might be possibly applied to 300 layers. First of all, we are now focusing on the area more than 400 layers when we evaluate this technology for the purpose of introduction into the high-volume production. And next year, CY 2025 should be the year when we start recognizing sales of this new technology.
You said 2025 demand investment will be doubled. That's what you said in your presentation. So cryogenic etching will become more important to be introduced into NAND manufacturing line. Is that correct understanding?
Little by little, the 400 layer -- proportion of 400 layer should be the factor we need to consider. So little by little, the cryogenic etching will be increasing, but each customer has its own strategy. However, year 2025, we can expect that cryogenic etching will contribute to our net sales.
So you said inquiries are double than your expectation? So DRAM manufacturers, how many DRAM manufacturers may adopt this technology? When they are going to start? Next year, 2025? So now you have the 30% to 40% increase in growth in the DRAM area. Could you give me your idea, please?
Are you asking about the POR for the DRAM manufacturers?
No, wafer bonding. I have a question regarding wafer bonding.
So at this moment, I cannot make any comment regarding specific number, but inquiries have doubled that expectation. So we can have high expectations, but I'm sorry I cannot give you any specifics, including number of units or the amount or price and the amount of the sales.
Are there any other questions? We have about 10 minutes to go. So we may take the second question from the audience. Could you raise -- could hit the raise hand button if you have additional questions. So Mr. Sugiura of Daiwa Securities.
So 5-year plan. I have a question regarding 5-year plan, especially for the recruitment. Human Resources. As we discussed a little, now we have about 17,000 and we are going to increase the workforce by 10,000. I'm afraid there might be some risk for the dilution of the human resources, how do you address the risk of dilution of human resources? And you can see drastic increase in number of head employees, the fixed cost might increase drastically. Is that correct understanding? And how do you address the dilution of human resources? And how do you view the future outlook of the fixed costs?
Fortunately, as for the human resources, among the University students, more than 20,000 or 22,000 or 23,000 graduates are registering entries, so newcomers and mid-carrier employees, we are thinking both of them, about 1,000 outside of Japan and about 1,000 inside Japan, including new graduates and mid-carrier employee. So 2,000 newcomers per year is the plan for the future. As I said earlier, for entry, we have -- we are able to hire as sufficient number of the people. On the other hand, as a leading company in the industry, we should support the students in terms of the education and training. We are going to focus this area as well as a leader of the industry. Needless to say, we said 3G, so 3G is global, generation and gender. So we need to keep a good balance among those 3Gs, global, gender and generation. So this is how we plan for the human resources. As for the fixed cost ratio, at present among device market, capital intensity, WFE proportion is up 16%. By year 2030, the semiconductor market will be doubled to reach $1 trillion. And if capital intensity remains unchanged and if share doesn't change, our sales is expected to be doubled in year 2030. So looking ahead, year 2030, when you continue operation, the sales per capita and profit per employee can be improved furthermore. According to our estimation, our sites increase in number, while our factories grow in size. Digital transformation and robotic solution should be promoted. Furthermore, the number of installed base will be enhanced, but incidents should be decreased in number. So the semiconductor device market will be expanding rapidly. Accordingly, our sales and our sites will be increasing in number. At the same time, you can see higher business opportunity with high growth potential. Based on that outlook, we think this plan is good enough to further improve the operating profit margin.
So I'd like to give you 1 additional comment from IR department for the recruitment. We are going to hire 10,000 new people in the future. However, in the future, we will have decline in the workforce due to the mandatory retirement. According to our estimation, about 700 people will leave TEL annually due to the mandatory retirement. Therefore, net increase in 5 years to come should be 6,500.
Second question, Mr. Yoshida from CLSA Securities.
I am Yoshida. When you answered to the question of Mr. Wadaki regarding fiscal 2025, you answered your prospect is almost the same as the prospect issued by SEAJ. When you look at the first half and second half of fiscal year 2025, how do you view the market trend?
So second half next fiscal year, we can see the rather growth, big growth the full-fledged DRAM and logic investment will start in 2025. So we are now bottoming out and the gradual recovery is expected. When you compare first and second half of next fiscal year, I think the market size will expand more in the second half of next fiscal year. For NAND, year 2025 calendar year basis, NAND is expected to be doubled. I think the majority comes from January to March region, that's when the more investment will come from January to March. So throughout the year, the NAND will be going through the adjustment. So calendar year first quarter or second quarter, we should wait and see what happens, we should closely watch the condition.
One more question. I want to ask about Field Solutions as well. The fourth quarter -- so when you think about the total sales, Field Solutions sales has increased quite considerably. So what is the background of the increase of the Field Solutions sales and could you also share with us about your outlook for next fiscal year?
As for the Field Solutions, the customer utilization rate increases, then accordingly, specialty parts business portion will increase. So customers' utilization rate is rather limited right now. But now you can see the improvement in the utilization rate at customer facts. Accordingly, parts business will be increasing. And also, when customers start the production activity, then we can see more modifications.
Next question is given in text, let me read it out. The question is from Mr. Bulk from New Street Research. You guided for 20% sequential growth in SPE revenues in the March quarter. This contrasts with your major U.S. and Dutch peers, which all forecast a quarter-over-quarter decline in March and for their revenue to be back-end weighted in 2024. Can you elaborate how you expect your SPE revenues to trend in 2024? Do you expect revenue to be back or front-end weighted?
So I think your question is very similar to the previous question. Tokyo Electron quarterly net sales, you saw the presentation materials. So little by little calendar year 2025, you can see gradual increase in our quarterly net sales. That is the overall trend. As for the overall picture, second half with more active and you can see rapid growth from the second half of next fiscal year.
Let me add 1 comment. There is a difference between Dutch and American peers and our company in terms of lead time because of that. And also, they have more backlogs, that's another factor to impact. In the previous fiscal year, our company followed the lead time to deliver our product. Therefore, backlogs are rather low in our company. Therefore, the timing for our recognition sales is different those of the Western companies.
Any other questions? Since there seems to be no more questions, we'd like to conclude the financial announcement. Lastly, we'd like to continually improve our IR activities based on your precious feedback. So we would appreciate your kind cooperation in filling out the questionnaire before you exit the WebEx. Thank you very much for taking time to join this conference despite your busy schedule today. Thank you very much. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]