Good morning. My name
is Pam, and
I'll
be
your
conference
operator
today.
At
this
time,
I'd
like
to
welcome
everyone
to
the
MEG
Energy's
2021
Year-End
Results
Conference
Call.
All
lines
have been
placed
on
mute
to
prevent
any
background
noise.
After
the
speakers'
remarks,
there'll be
a
question-and-answer
session.
[Operator Instructions]
Thank
you.
I
would
now
like
to
turn
the
conference
over
to
Mr.
Derek
Evans,
CEO.
Please
go
ahead.
D
Derek Watson Evans
Thank
you,
Pam.
Good
morning
and
thank
you
for
joining
us to
review
MEG
Energy's
year-end
2021
operating
and
financial
results.
In
the
room
with
me
this
morning are
Eric
Toews, our
Chief
Financial
Officer;
Lyle
Yuzdepski,
our
General
Counsel
and
Corporate
Secretary;
and Darlene
Gates,
our
Chief
Operating
Officer.
I'd
like
to
remind
our
listeners
that
this
call
contains
forward-looking
information.
Please
refer
to
the
advisories
in
our
disclosure
documents
filed
on
SEDAR
and
on
our
website.
I'll
keep
my
remarks
brief
today
and
refer
listeners
to
yesterday's
press
releases
for
more
detail.
MEG
continues
its
priority
of
maintaining
safe
and
reliable
operations
as
we
work
within
the
ongoing
COVID-19
environment.
Our
teams
continue
to
respond
to
the
impacts
of
the
pandemic,
prioritizing
the
health
and
safety
of
our
workforce
and
reliable
operations
at
our
Christina
Lake
facility.
I'm
proud
to
say
that
we
had
no
lost
time
incidents
for
our
employees
or
contractors
in
2021,
a
testament
to
the
dedication
and
diligence
of
our
team.
We
exited
the
year
with
strong
financial
and
operational
results.
Our
team's
focus
on
safety,
plant
reliability,
steam
utilization,
and
ongoing
well optimization
have
contributed
to
MEG's
strong
2021
results.
Highlights
from
our
year-end
results
include:
adjusted
funds
flow
of CAD
799
million
or
CAD
2.57
per
share
for
the
year;
record
free
cash
flow
of
CAD
468
million
in
2021;
we
completed
or
announced
the
repayment
of
$325
million
of
outstanding
indebtedness;
record
bitumen
production
volumes
for
the
fourth
quarter
of
100,698
barrels
per
day
as
well
as
for
the
full
year
of
93,733
barrels
per
day.
Total
capital
expenditures
of
CAD 331
million,
approximately
2%
lower
than
the
July
2021
increased
budget,
were
primarily
directed
towards
sustaining
and
maintenance
activities
and
additional
drilling
to
return
bitumen
production
to
100,000
barrels
a
day.
Net
operating
costs
averaged
CAD
6.60
per
barrel,
including
record
low
non-energy
operating
costs
of
CAD
4.24
per
barrel.
Power
revenue
offset
energy
operating
costs
by
approximately
52%.
We
released
our
second
ESG
report
with
a
new
2030
greenhouse
gas
intensity
target
to
complement
our
2050
net
zero
greenhouse
gas
target
and
improved
alignment
on
disclosure
of
climate-related
risks
with
SASB
and
TCFD
guidance.
MEG
realized
an average
AWB
blend
sales
price
of
$57.59
per
barrel
during
2021
compared
to
$28.07
per
barrel
in
2020.
The
increase
in
the
average
AWB
blend
sales
price
year-over-year
was
primarily
a
result
of
the
average
WTI
price
increase
of
$28.51
per
barrel.
MEG
sold
42%
of
its
sales
volumes
in
the
premium
priced
US
Gulf
Coast
market
in
2021
compared
to
40%
in
2020.
MEG
invested CAD
331
million
of
capital
in
2021
compared
to
CAD
149
million
in
2020.
Majority
of the
capital
was
focused
on
sustaining
and
maintenance
activities
as
well
as
incremental
well
capital
to
fully
utilize
the
Christina
Lake's
oil
processing
capacity
of
100,000
barrels
per
day.
As
we
disclosed
last
year,
the
total
investment
for
this
initiative
is
approximately
CAD 125
million,
of
which CAD
50
million
is
being
invested
in
the
first
half
of
2022.
MEG
expects
full
facility
utilization
in
the
second
half
of
2022
post
our
planned
turnaround
in
Q2
of
this
year.
I'm
proud
of the
efforts
and
the
advancements
in
our
ESG
activities
from
our
teams
across
the
organization.
In
June
2021,
MEG
along
with
four
other
oil
sands
operators,
created
the
Oil
Sands
Pathways
to
Net
Zero
Alliance
with
the
objective
to
achieve
net zero
emissions
from
our
operations
by
2050.
In
the
fall,
a
sixth
company
joined
the
alliance,
which
now
represents
approximately
95%
of
operated
Canadian
oil
sands
production.
Our
collective
purpose
is
to
position
Canada
as
the
preferred
global
supplier
of
net zero
crude.
Pathways'
vision
is
anchored
by
a
major
carbon
capture
and
storage
system
with
a
CO2
pipeline
connecting
oil
sands
facilities
from
Fort
McMurray
and
the
surrounding
region
to
a
carbon
sequestration
hub
near
Cold
Lake.
We
continue
to
work
with
the
federal
and
Alberta
governments
in
support
of
this
emissions-reduction
project
and
infrastructure
as
well
as
advancing
development
of
new
and
emerging
technologies.
2021
also
saw
the
release
of
our
second
ESG
report,
which
outlines
the
meaningful
progress
we've
made
in
our
priority
topics:
climate
change and
greenhouse
gas
emissions,
water
and
wastewater
management,
health
and
safety,
and
indigenous
relations.
In
addition,
the
report
contains
our
new
2030
greenhouse
gas
intensity
target
that
complements
our
2050
net
zero
target
and
improved
alignment
on
climate-related
risks
with
SASB
and
TCFD
guidance. The
report
is
available
on
our
website
at
www.megenergy.com,
and
I
really
encourage
listeners
to
take
the
opportunity
to
read
it
in
some
detail.
It's
a
fabulous
report.
As
we
exit
2021,
MEG
is
well-positioned
to
continue
to
deliver
on
its
deleveraging
and
shareholder
return
strategy.
Yesterday,
MEG
issued
a
notice
to
redeem
the
remaining
$171
million
of
MEG's
outstanding
6.5%
senior
secured
second
lien
notes
due
January
2025.
This
brings
MEG's
total
debt
repayment
to
approximately
$2 billion
since
the
beginning
of
2018.
Continued
debt
reduction
remains
a
core
focus
of
the
company.
As
MEG
expects
to
soon
reach
its
previously
announced
near-term
debt
target
of
$1.7
billion,
yesterday,
MEG's
board
of
directors
approved
the
filing
of
an
application
to
allow
MEG
to
initiate
a
share
buyback
program,
whereby
10%
of
the
corporation's
public
float
may
be
brought
back
– bought
back
up
to
a
maximum
of
approximately
27.2
million
common
shares
of
MEG.
MEG
intends
to
allocate
25%
of
free
cash
flow
generated
to
share
buybacks,
with
the
remainder
being
allocated
to
debt
reduction.
Once
MEG
reaches
its
$1.2
billion
net
debt
target,
the
corporation
intends
to
increase
the
percentage
of
free
cash
flow
allocated
to
share
buybacks
to
approximately
50%,
with
the
remainder
being
applied
to
further
debt
reduction.
In
closing,
we
continue
to
enhance
our
competitive
position
with
our
work
on
several
priorities,
including
our
debt
repayment
and
shareholder
return
strategy,
plant
optimization
and
reliability,
cost
management,
and
advancement
of
our
ESG-related
activities.
I'm
pleased
with
the
more
favorable
outlook
for
commodity
prices
as
well
as
the
ongoing
global
recovery
from
the
impact
of
the
COVID-19
pandemic.
I
want
to
extend
my
thanks
to
our
team
for
their
performance
and
contributions
to
our
success
in
2021.
I'm
proud
of
what
we've
been
able
to
accomplish
and
confident
in
our
future
and
our
commitment
to
sustainable,
innovative,
and
responsible
energy
development.
With
that,
I'll
now
turn
the
call
to
our
operator
to
begin
the
Q&A.
Operator
Thank
you.
Ladies
and
gentlemen,
we
will
now
begin
the
question-and-answer
session.
[Operator Instructions]
Your
first
question
comes
from
Phil
Gresh
with
JPMorgan.
Please
go
ahead.
P
Phil Gresh
Analyst, JPMorgan Securities LLC
Yeah.
Hey.
Good
morning,
Derek.
And
thanks
for
taking
the
questions.
First
one
just
on
the
takeaway
situation
for
2022.
Can
you
give
us
any
updated
thoughts
on
your
ability
to
use
the
full
contracted
amount
as
the
year
progresses?
D
Derek Watson Evans
Absolutely.
Phil,
I
think
you're
referring
to
our
Flanagan
South
Seaway
capacity.
I
think
we
fully
expect
to
be
able
to
use
the
majority
of
that
95%
of
that
throughout
the
year,
primarily
driven
by
the
fact
that
the
Enbridge
apportionment
we
expect
to
see
in
that
sort
of
0%
range
through
the
summer
and
maybe
a
little
bit
of
maybe
5%
apportionment
in
some
of
the
shoulder
seasons.
But
effectively,
we're
going
to
have
a full
access
to
that
capacity
now.
P
Phil Gresh
Analyst, JPMorgan Securities LLC
Got
it.
So
even
here
in
the
first
quarter,
you
feel
comfortable
with
that?
D
Derek Watson Evans
Well,
I
mean,
apportionment
was
higher
in
January
and
February.
But
I
mean,
March's
apportionment,
I
believe,
is
zero.
And
we
fully
expect
that
to
continue
as
we
drive
forward
now.
P
Phil Gresh
Analyst, JPMorgan Securities LLC
Got
it.
Okay.
Good
to
hear.
And
then
any
updated
thoughts
around
the
timing
of
moving
to
post payout
in
this
type
of
macro
environment?
Obviously,
it's
extremely
volatile
right
now,
but
just
curious
how
you
would
frame
the
way
we
should
think
about
that?
E
Eric L. Toews
Chief Financial Officer, MEG Energy Corp.
Yeah.
Phil, it's
Eric.
Probably
the
best
way to
think
about
that
is
to
think
about
the
effect
of
royalty
rates
for
2022
and
2023,
so at
the
prices
we're
seeing
today,
the
oil
prices
we're
seeing
today.
And
as
you
know,
like,
there's
a
bunch
of
factors
that
go
into
calculating
the
payout,
oil
prices, diluent
costs,
foreign
exchange,
capital,
all
that
needs
to
be put
in to
determine
payout
timing.
But
the
effect
of royalty
rates
we're
seeing
for
2022
is
probably
in the
10%
to
15%
range.
And
then
we'd
see
that –
at
current
pricing, we'd
see
that
going
to
20%
to
25%
for
2023.
So
that's
probably
the
best
way
for
us
to
frame
that
for
you.
P
Phil Gresh
Analyst, JPMorgan Securities LLC
Okay.
Perfect.
Thank
you.
I'll
turn
it
over.
D
Derek Watson Evans
Thanks,
Phil.
Operator
Your
next
question
comes
from
Neil
Mehta
with
Goldman
Sachs.
Please
go
ahead.
N
Nicolette Slusser
Analyst, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
Hey.
Good
morning.
This
is
Nicolette
Slusser
on
for
Neil
Mehta.
Thanks
for
taking
the
time.
So
the
first
would
just
be
on
costs.
Non-energy
OpEx
continues
to come
in
lower
versus
our
estimates
and
also in
recent
guidance.
How
should
we
be
thinking
about
non-energy
OpEx
going
forward?
And
is
it
safe
to
say
the
fourth
quarter's
non-energy
OpEx
per
barrel
could
be
used
as
a
sort
of
run
rate?
D
Derek Watson Evans
Great
question.
I
think,
after
six
years
of
continuing
to
reduce
our
non-energy
OpEx,
I
think
this
is
the
year
where
due
to
inflationary
pressures,
pressures
on
labor,
pressures
on
fuel,
pressures
on
services,
we
could
see
that
start
to
move
up.
Obviously,
we'll
continue
to
focus
on
that.
But
I
think
the
guidance
we've
got
out
there
includes
all
of
those
impacts.
So
I
think
our
guidance
range
is
probably
the
best
view
of
where
we
think
non-energy
OpEx
costs
are
going
to
be
on
a
go-forward
basis.
N
Nicolette Slusser
Analyst, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
Okay.
Great.
That's
helpful.
Thank
you.
And
then
the
follow-up,
we're
just
curious
on
your
outlook
for
WTI/WCS
this
year
as
global
demand
for
Canada
heavy
crude
may
pick
up
and
with
Line
3
on
line.
And
then
in
the
medium
term,
how
are
you
thinking
about
differentials
following
the
recent
announcement
to
bring
TMX
on
line
in
3Q
2023?
Thanks.
D
Derek Watson Evans
So
it's
interesting.
Obviously,
there's
a
lot
of
focus
on
where
WTI
today
is.
But
the
second
part
of
your
question,
I
think,
is
the
really
interesting
one
is
where
do
we
see
differentials.
I
mean,
today,
differentials
are
trading
in the
US
Gulf
Coast
for
WCS
or
AWB
in
that
CAD 2
to
CAD 3
range,
which
is
showing
the
tremendous
demand,
worldwide
demand
for
this
product.
And
obviously,
with
some
of
the
challenges
that
we're
seeing
in
terms
of
energy
supply
coming
out
of
Europe,
we
expect
to
see
very
low
WCS/AWB
differentials
on
a
go-forward
basis.
Obviously,
we
can't
predict
where
WTI
prices
are
going.
But
we
do
believe
that
if
we
look
at
sort
of
the
amount
of
underinvestment
in
the
global
oil
and
gas
business
and
the
continued
focus
of
investors
on
return
of
capital
and
no
growth
from
oil
and
gas
companies,
we
think
this
is
going
to
create
an
environment
where
you're
going
to
see
much –
you're
going
to
see
strong
WTI
prices
for
an
extended
period
of time.
N
Nicolette Slusser
Analyst, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
Great.
Thanks
for
the
color.
D
Derek Watson Evans
Thank
you.
[Operator Instructions]
Operator
Your
next
question
comes
from
Patrick
O'Rourke
with
ATB
Capital.
Please
go
ahead.
P
Patrick J. O'Rourke
Analyst, ATB Capital Markets, Inc.
Hey.
Good morning,
guys. Thanks
for
taking
my
questions.
Just
looking
at
the
net
debt
target
and
the
NCIB
that
you're
putting
in
place,
our
model
kind
of
has
it
you
getting
to
that
$1.7
billion
threshold
at
some
point
in
Q2.
But
is
it
safe
to
assume
that
as
soon
as
you
get
the
approval
here,
you
can
start
executing
on
that?
E
Eric L. Toews
Chief Financial Officer, MEG Energy Corp.
I
guess
the
way
that
we're
thinking
about
that,
Patrick,
is
we
want to
make
sure
we
have
the
cash in
the
door
before
we
start
doing
buybacks.
So
you
should
expect
to
see
us
start
that
very
soon.
But
we
want to
make
sure
that
we
have
all
the
cash
in
the
door
after
redeeming
the
second
lien
notes
we
announced
yesterday.
But
we'll
start
it
as
quickly
as
we
can
when
the
cash
is
in
the
door.
P
Patrick J. O'Rourke
Analyst, ATB Capital Markets, Inc.
Okay.
And
then
a
little
bit
of
an
improvement
on
the
SOR
in
the
quarter
relative
to
Q3
here.
Wondering
after
coming
out
of
the
turnaround
here
and
you
get
to
the
steady
state
nameplate
capacity,
how
you
guys
see
the
SOR
trending
going
forward
here.
D
Derek Watson Evans
I
think
the
– Patrick,
it's
Derek.
Obviously,
the
steam-oil
ratio
is
a
function
of
where
we
put
the
steam
to
work
and
what
stage
in
maturity
the
wells
are
at.
So
part
of the
reason
you
saw
the
steam-oil
ratio
coming
down
in the
last
part
of
the
year
is
we
were
bringing
new
well
pairs
on,
well
pairs
that
we had
been
steaming
and
warming
up,
but
not
actually
seeing
the
production
from.
So
I
think
you'll –
should
expect
to
see
that,
that
steam-oil
ratio
over
the
year
will
continue
to
come
down
gradually.
P
Patrick J. O'Rourke
Analyst, ATB Capital Markets, Inc.
Okay.
And
then
just
one
last
sort
of
final
question
for
me.
In
terms
of
time lines
for
the
Pathways
project, it's
something
that's
–
the
Pathway
is
really
intriguing
for
us,
and
I
think
a
lot
of
investors
out
there,
especially
in
terms
of
the
oil
sands
story.
Can
you
maybe
give
us
an
outlook
for
sort
of
the
timing
when
we
could
see
sort
of
more
material
news
on
this
project?
D
Derek Watson Evans
Absolutely.
Listen,
the
Pathways
project
is
exciting
on
a
bunch
of
different
fronts.
Not
only
is
it
really
Canada's
only
big
project
to
help
meet
its
2030
aspirations
to
reduce
its
greenhouse
gas
emissions,
Pathways
project
represents
obviously
10%
of
Canada's
emissions.
And
we're
excited
to
be
able
to
get
that
potentially
up
and
running
sooner
than
later.
With
respect
to
your
question,
we
are
currently
awaiting
some
news
on
the
investment
tax
credit,
which
we
hope
will
be
in
the
next
federal
budget.
And
that
will
provide
us
with
some
clarity
on
the
important
financial
support
that
we
need
to
undertake
this
project.
The
other
part
of
this,
though,
that
is
equally
and
as
important
is
the
pore
space application.
So
we
are
very
interested
in
getting
our
pore
space
application
in
with
the
province
of
Alberta
for
that
area
around
Cold
Lake
area.
I
saw
something
come
out
yesterday
that
said
there
was
an
opportunity
or
there
were
requests
for
proposals
on
that
front
that
has
sort
of
a
May
deadline
and
a
October-type
of
timeframe
with
respect
to
when
we
potentially
could
find
out, but
we'll
work
on
that.
But
those
are
sort
of
the
two
key
deadlines
we're
working
with
at
the
moment,
when
could
we
see
some
sort
of
indication
of
federal
support
and
when
could
we
achieve
some
sort
of
certainty
with
respect
to
pore
space
in
the
Cold
Lake
area.
P
Patrick J. O'Rourke
Analyst, ATB Capital Markets, Inc.
Okay.
Thank
you
very
much.
D
Derek Watson Evans
Thank
you,
Patrick.
Operator
Your
next
question
comes
from
Dennis
Fong
with
CIBC
World
Markets.
Please
go
ahead.
D
Dennis Fong
Analyst, CIBC World Markets, Inc.
Hi.
Good
morning.
And
thanks
for
taking
my
question.
The
first
one
that
I
have
here
is just
with
respect
to
the
term
notes.
You've
obviously
now
retired
your
– well,
soon
to
have
retired
the
entire
6.5%
senior
secured
second
lien.
How
should
we
be
thinking
about
the
next
tranche,
the
2027,
as
well
as
just
kind
of
expectations
around
capital
allocation
policies
and
maybe
ideal
capital
structure?
Thanks.
E
Eric L. Toews
Chief Financial Officer, MEG Energy Corp.
I guess, I'll
take
the
second
question
first,
which
is
the
capital
allocation
strategy.
I
don't
think –
we've
been
very
clear
on
the
allocation
of
free
cash
flow
to
buybacks
and
to
debt
reduction,
and
that
the
$1.2
billion,
we
take
that
to
50/50.
So
we
don't
see
that
changing.
We
see,
obviously,
the
trading
value
of MEG
shares
is
well
below
the
intrinsic
value.
So
until
that
fundamentally
changes,
you
won't
see
us
change
our
strategy
around
that.
With
respect
to
the
optimum
capital
structure,
we're
going
to continue
to
pay
down
debt
once
we
hit
that
$1.2
billion.
And
the
$1.2
billion
was
less
than
2
times
at
a $50
WTI
price.
We
want to
get
that
lower.
How
much
lower,
we'll
determine
that
as
we
get
to
that
$1.2
billion
level.
And
then
the
first
question
–
sorry,
can
you
repeat
the
first
question?
D
Dennis Fong
Analyst, CIBC World Markets, Inc.
Just
about
the
$1.2
billion
of
term
notes
for
2027...
Yeah.
Sorry,
Dennis.
Thanks.
Yeah.
We're
thinking
about
that
the
same way
we
thought
about
attacking
the
second liens
a
few
years
ago,
which
is
we'll
look
at
the
tranches,
which debt
we
buy
back
based
on
things
like
liquidity,
tenor,
price,
the
economics
to
it.
So we
have
a
plan
around
that,
and
we'll
execute
that
shortly.
D
Dennis Fong
Analyst, CIBC World Markets, Inc.
Great.
Thanks.
D
Derek Watson Evans
Thanks,
Dennis.
Operator
Your
next
question
comes
from
Menno
Hulshof
with
TD
Securities.
Please
go
ahead.
M
Menno Hulshof
Analyst, TD Securities, Inc.
Thanks.
Good
morning,
everyone.
Just
one
question
for
me,
just
a
follow-up
on
shareholder
returns.
You're
clearly
about
to
get
really
aggressive
on
the
buyback.
But
what
are
your
current
thoughts
on
why
reinstatement
of
a
base
dividend
isn't
a
priority?
E
Eric L. Toews
Chief Financial Officer, MEG Energy Corp.
Yeah.
Well, the –
but
from
our
perspective,
the
buybacks,
that
generates
fundamental
value
for
shareholders. It's
demonstrable.
All
else
being
equal,
the
cash
flow
per
share
shrinks
as
the
– or
grows,
sorry,
as
the
outstanding
shares
shrink.
And
you've got to
remember,
we're
still
in
a
deleveraging
mode
here
at
MEG.
So
from
our
perspective,
that
strategy
is
somewhat
incompatible
with
a
fixed
charge
dividend
at
this
point
in time.
So
that's
the
reason
why
we
gravitate
towards
the
buybacks.
M
Menno Hulshof
Analyst, TD Securities, Inc.
So
potentially,
we
can
start
to
think
about
that
in
2023
or
even
further
out?
E
Eric L. Toews
Chief Financial Officer, MEG Energy Corp.
Yeah. I
wouldn't
say
that.
We'll
decide
that
at
the
time.
But
right
now,
our
approach
is
buybacks.
We
think
that's
the
best
approach
for
shareholders.
And
we'll
determine
whether
we
change
that
once
we
get
through
the
$1.2
billion
target.
M
Menno Hulshof
Analyst, TD Securities, Inc.
Perfect.
Thank
you.
D
Derek Watson Evans
And Menno, I
would
just
add.
I
mean,
we
continue
to look
at
the
intrinsic
value
of
the
shares,
and
we
still
think
the
best
strategy
given
our
high
leverage
is
to
continue
to
buy
back
those
shares.
I
mean,
I'll
be
quite
honest,
our
concern
with
dividends
is
people
see
it
as
a
fixed
part
of
your
cost
structure.
And
we've
got
to
reduce
–
we
need
to
reduce
our
debt
before
we
start
talking
about
adding
anything
else
to
our
cost
structure.
M
Menno Hulshof
Analyst, TD Securities, Inc.
Got
it.
That
all makes
a
lot
of
sense.
Thanks,
guys.
E
Eric L. Toews
Chief Financial Officer, MEG Energy Corp.
Thanks.
D
Derek Watson Evans
Thanks,
Menno.
Operator
There
are
no
further
questions
at
this
time.
Please
proceed.
D
Derek Watson Evans
Well,
thank
you,
everyone,
for
joining
us
for
the
call
today.
Appreciate
the
time
you've
given
us
to
let
us
update
you
on
our
story.
We
appreciate
your
questions,
and
we
appreciate
your
continued
support.
Thank
you,
and
have
a
great
day.
Operator
Ladies
and
gentlemen,
this
concludes
your
conference
call
for
today.
We
thank
you
for
participating,
and
ask
that
you
please
disconnect
your
lines.
Have
a
great
day.
Good morning. My name is Pam, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the MEG Energy's 2021 Year-End Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there'll be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Derek Evans, CEO. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Pam. Good morning and thank you for joining us to review MEG Energy's year-end 2021 operating and financial results. In the room with me this morning are Eric Toews, our Chief Financial Officer; Lyle Yuzdepski, our General Counsel and Corporate Secretary; and Darlene Gates, our Chief Operating Officer.
I'd like to remind our listeners that this call contains forward-looking information. Please refer to the advisories in our disclosure documents filed on SEDAR and on our website. I'll keep my remarks brief today and refer listeners to yesterday's press releases for more detail.
MEG continues its priority of maintaining safe and reliable operations as we work within the ongoing COVID-19 environment. Our teams continue to respond to the impacts of the pandemic, prioritizing the health and safety of our workforce and reliable operations at our Christina Lake facility. I'm proud to say that we had no lost time incidents for our employees or contractors in 2021, a testament to the dedication and diligence of our team.
We exited the year with strong financial and operational results. Our team's focus on safety, plant reliability, steam utilization, and ongoing well optimization have contributed to MEG's strong 2021 results. Highlights from our year-end results include: adjusted funds flow of CAD 799 million or CAD 2.57 per share for the year; record free cash flow of CAD 468 million in 2021; we completed or announced the repayment of $325 million of outstanding indebtedness; record bitumen production volumes for the fourth quarter of 100,698 barrels per day as well as for the full year of 93,733 barrels per day.
Total capital expenditures of CAD 331 million, approximately 2% lower than the July 2021 increased budget, were primarily directed towards sustaining and maintenance activities and additional drilling to return bitumen production to 100,000 barrels a day. Net operating costs averaged CAD 6.60 per barrel, including record low non-energy operating costs of CAD 4.24 per barrel. Power revenue offset energy operating costs by approximately 52%.
We released our second ESG report with a new 2030 greenhouse gas intensity target to complement our 2050 net zero greenhouse gas target and improved alignment on disclosure of climate-related risks with SASB and TCFD guidance.
MEG realized an average AWB blend sales price of $57.59 per barrel during 2021 compared to $28.07 per barrel in 2020. The increase in the average AWB blend sales price year-over-year was primarily a result of the average WTI price increase of $28.51 per barrel. MEG sold 42% of its sales volumes in the premium priced US Gulf Coast market in 2021 compared to 40% in 2020.
MEG invested CAD 331 million of capital in 2021 compared to CAD 149 million in 2020. Majority of the capital was focused on sustaining and maintenance activities as well as incremental well capital to fully utilize the Christina Lake's oil processing capacity of 100,000 barrels per day. As we disclosed last year, the total investment for this initiative is approximately CAD 125 million, of which CAD 50 million is being invested in the first half of 2022. MEG expects full facility utilization in the second half of 2022 post our planned turnaround in Q2 of this year.
I'm proud of the efforts and the advancements in our ESG activities from our teams across the organization. In June 2021, MEG along with four other oil sands operators, created the Oil Sands Pathways to Net Zero Alliance with the objective to achieve net zero emissions from our operations by 2050. In the fall, a sixth company joined the alliance, which now represents approximately 95% of operated Canadian oil sands production. Our collective purpose is to position Canada as the preferred global supplier of net zero crude.
Pathways' vision is anchored by a major carbon capture and storage system with a CO2 pipeline connecting oil sands facilities from Fort McMurray and the surrounding region to a carbon sequestration hub near Cold Lake. We continue to work with the federal and Alberta governments in support of this emissions-reduction project and infrastructure as well as advancing development of new and emerging technologies.
2021 also saw the release of our second ESG report, which outlines the meaningful progress we've made in our priority topics: climate change and greenhouse gas emissions, water and wastewater management, health and safety, and indigenous relations. In addition, the report contains our new 2030 greenhouse gas intensity target that complements our 2050 net zero target and improved alignment on climate-related risks with SASB and TCFD guidance. The report is available on our website at www.megenergy.com, and I really encourage listeners to take the opportunity to read it in some detail. It's a fabulous report.
As we exit 2021, MEG is well-positioned to continue to deliver on its deleveraging and shareholder return strategy. Yesterday, MEG issued a notice to redeem the remaining $171 million of MEG's outstanding 6.5% senior secured second lien notes due January 2025. This brings MEG's total debt repayment to approximately $2 billion since the beginning of 2018. Continued debt reduction remains a core focus of the company.
As MEG expects to soon reach its previously announced near-term debt target of $1.7 billion, yesterday, MEG's board of directors approved the filing of an application to allow MEG to initiate a share buyback program, whereby 10% of the corporation's public float may be brought back – bought back up to a maximum of approximately 27.2 million common shares of MEG. MEG intends to allocate 25% of free cash flow generated to share buybacks, with the remainder being allocated to debt reduction.
Once MEG reaches its $1.2 billion net debt target, the corporation intends to increase the percentage of free cash flow allocated to share buybacks to approximately 50%, with the remainder being applied to further debt reduction.
In closing, we continue to enhance our competitive position with our work on several priorities, including our debt repayment and shareholder return strategy, plant optimization and reliability, cost management, and advancement of our ESG-related activities. I'm pleased with the more favorable outlook for commodity prices as well as the ongoing global recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
I want to extend my thanks to our team for their performance and contributions to our success in 2021. I'm proud of what we've been able to accomplish and confident in our future and our commitment to sustainable, innovative, and responsible energy development.
With that, I'll now turn the call to our operator to begin the Q&A.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Phil Gresh with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hey. Good morning, Derek. And thanks for taking the questions. First one just on the takeaway situation for 2022. Can you give us any updated thoughts on your ability to use the full contracted amount as the year progresses?
Absolutely. Phil, I think you're referring to our Flanagan South Seaway capacity. I think we fully expect to be able to use the majority of that 95% of that throughout the year, primarily driven by the fact that the Enbridge apportionment we expect to see in that sort of 0% range through the summer and maybe a little bit of maybe 5% apportionment in some of the shoulder seasons. But effectively, we're going to have a full access to that capacity now.
Got it. So even here in the first quarter, you feel comfortable with that?
Well, I mean, apportionment was higher in January and February. But I mean, March's apportionment, I believe, is zero. And we fully expect that to continue as we drive forward now.
Got it. Okay. Good to hear. And then any updated thoughts around the timing of moving to post payout in this type of macro environment? Obviously, it's extremely volatile right now, but just curious how you would frame the way we should think about that?
Yeah. Phil, it's Eric. Probably the best way to think about that is to think about the effect of royalty rates for 2022 and 2023, so at the prices we're seeing today, the oil prices we're seeing today. And as you know, like, there's a bunch of factors that go into calculating the payout, oil prices, diluent costs, foreign exchange, capital, all that needs to be put in to determine payout timing. But the effect of royalty rates we're seeing for 2022 is probably in the 10% to 15% range. And then we'd see that – at current pricing, we'd see that going to 20% to 25% for 2023. So that's probably the best way for us to frame that for you.
Okay. Perfect. Thank you. I'll turn it over.
Thanks, Phil.
Your next question comes from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hey. Good morning. This is Nicolette Slusser on for Neil Mehta. Thanks for taking the time. So the first would just be on costs. Non-energy OpEx continues to come in lower versus our estimates and also in recent guidance. How should we be thinking about non-energy OpEx going forward? And is it safe to say the fourth quarter's non-energy OpEx per barrel could be used as a sort of run rate?
Great question. I think, after six years of continuing to reduce our non-energy OpEx, I think this is the year where due to inflationary pressures, pressures on labor, pressures on fuel, pressures on services, we could see that start to move up. Obviously, we'll continue to focus on that. But I think the guidance we've got out there includes all of those impacts. So I think our guidance range is probably the best view of where we think non-energy OpEx costs are going to be on a go-forward basis.
Okay. Great. That's helpful. Thank you. And then the follow-up, we're just curious on your outlook for WTI/WCS this year as global demand for Canada heavy crude may pick up and with Line 3 on line. And then in the medium term, how are you thinking about differentials following the recent announcement to bring TMX on line in 3Q 2023? Thanks.
So it's interesting. Obviously, there's a lot of focus on where WTI today is. But the second part of your question, I think, is the really interesting one is where do we see differentials. I mean, today, differentials are trading in the US Gulf Coast for WCS or AWB in that CAD 2 to CAD 3 range, which is showing the tremendous demand, worldwide demand for this product. And obviously, with some of the challenges that we're seeing in terms of energy supply coming out of Europe, we expect to see very low WCS/AWB differentials on a go-forward basis.
Obviously, we can't predict where WTI prices are going. But we do believe that if we look at sort of the amount of underinvestment in the global oil and gas business and the continued focus of investors on return of capital and no growth from oil and gas companies, we think this is going to create an environment where you're going to see much – you're going to see strong WTI prices for an extended period of time.
Great. Thanks for the color.
Thank you. [Operator Instructions]
Your next question comes from Patrick O'Rourke with ATB Capital. Please go ahead.
Hey. Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Just looking at the net debt target and the NCIB that you're putting in place, our model kind of has it you getting to that $1.7 billion threshold at some point in Q2. But is it safe to assume that as soon as you get the approval here, you can start executing on that?
I guess the way that we're thinking about that, Patrick, is we want to make sure we have the cash in the door before we start doing buybacks. So you should expect to see us start that very soon. But we want to make sure that we have all the cash in the door after redeeming the second lien notes we announced yesterday. But we'll start it as quickly as we can when the cash is in the door.
Okay. And then a little bit of an improvement on the SOR in the quarter relative to Q3 here. Wondering after coming out of the turnaround here and you get to the steady state nameplate capacity, how you guys see the SOR trending going forward here.
I think the – Patrick, it's Derek. Obviously, the steam-oil ratio is a function of where we put the steam to work and what stage in maturity the wells are at. So part of the reason you saw the steam-oil ratio coming down in the last part of the year is we were bringing new well pairs on, well pairs that we had been steaming and warming up, but not actually seeing the production from. So I think you'll – should expect to see that, that steam-oil ratio over the year will continue to come down gradually.
Okay. And then just one last sort of final question for me. In terms of time lines for the Pathways project, it's something that's – the Pathway is really intriguing for us, and I think a lot of investors out there, especially in terms of the oil sands story. Can you maybe give us an outlook for sort of the timing when we could see sort of more material news on this project?
Absolutely. Listen, the Pathways project is exciting on a bunch of different fronts. Not only is it really Canada's only big project to help meet its 2030 aspirations to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, Pathways project represents obviously 10% of Canada's emissions. And we're excited to be able to get that potentially up and running sooner than later.
With respect to your question, we are currently awaiting some news on the investment tax credit, which we hope will be in the next federal budget. And that will provide us with some clarity on the important financial support that we need to undertake this project.
The other part of this, though, that is equally and as important is the pore space application. So we are very interested in getting our pore space application in with the province of Alberta for that area around Cold Lake area. I saw something come out yesterday that said there was an opportunity or there were requests for proposals on that front that has sort of a May deadline and a October-type of timeframe with respect to when we potentially could find out, but we'll work on that.
But those are sort of the two key deadlines we're working with at the moment, when could we see some sort of indication of federal support and when could we achieve some sort of certainty with respect to pore space in the Cold Lake area.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Patrick.
Your next question comes from Dennis Fong with CIBC World Markets. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. And thanks for taking my question. The first one that I have here is just with respect to the term notes. You've obviously now retired your – well, soon to have retired the entire 6.5% senior secured second lien. How should we be thinking about the next tranche, the 2027, as well as just kind of expectations around capital allocation policies and maybe ideal capital structure? Thanks.
I guess, I'll take the second question first, which is the capital allocation strategy. I don't think – we've been very clear on the allocation of free cash flow to buybacks and to debt reduction, and that the $1.2 billion, we take that to 50/50. So we don't see that changing. We see, obviously, the trading value of MEG shares is well below the intrinsic value. So until that fundamentally changes, you won't see us change our strategy around that.
With respect to the optimum capital structure, we're going to continue to pay down debt once we hit that $1.2 billion. And the $1.2 billion was less than 2 times at a $50 WTI price. We want to get that lower. How much lower, we'll determine that as we get to that $1.2 billion level.
And then the first question – sorry, can you repeat the first question?
Just about the $1.2 billion of term notes for 2027...
Yes. Sorry. Yeah.
... [indiscernible] (00:20:16) generate free cash.
Yeah. Sorry, Dennis. Thanks. Yeah. We're thinking about that the same way we thought about attacking the second liens a few years ago, which is we'll look at the tranches, which debt we buy back based on things like liquidity, tenor, price, the economics to it. So we have a plan around that, and we'll execute that shortly.
Great. Thanks.
Thanks, Dennis.
Your next question comes from Menno Hulshof with TD Securities. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Just one question for me, just a follow-up on shareholder returns. You're clearly about to get really aggressive on the buyback. But what are your current thoughts on why reinstatement of a base dividend isn't a priority?
Yeah. Well, the – but from our perspective, the buybacks, that generates fundamental value for shareholders. It's demonstrable. All else being equal, the cash flow per share shrinks as the – or grows, sorry, as the outstanding shares shrink. And you've got to remember, we're still in a deleveraging mode here at MEG. So from our perspective, that strategy is somewhat incompatible with a fixed charge dividend at this point in time. So that's the reason why we gravitate towards the buybacks.
So potentially, we can start to think about that in 2023 or even further out?
Yeah. I wouldn't say that. We'll decide that at the time. But right now, our approach is buybacks. We think that's the best approach for shareholders. And we'll determine whether we change that once we get through the $1.2 billion target.
Perfect. Thank you.
And Menno, I would just add. I mean, we continue to look at the intrinsic value of the shares, and we still think the best strategy given our high leverage is to continue to buy back those shares. I mean, I'll be quite honest, our concern with dividends is people see it as a fixed part of your cost structure. And we've got to reduce – we need to reduce our debt before we start talking about adding anything else to our cost structure.
Got it. That all makes a lot of sense. Thanks, guys.
Thanks.
Thanks, Menno.
There are no further questions at this time. Please proceed.
Well, thank you, everyone, for joining us for the call today. Appreciate the time you've given us to let us update you on our story. We appreciate your questions, and we appreciate your continued support. Thank you, and have a great day.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating, and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have a great day.